2002 Portuguese legislative election

2002 Portuguese legislative election
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly; 116 seats needed for a majority
Registered	8,902,713 0.4%
Turnout	5,473,655 (61.5%); 0.4 pp
Prime Minister before election; António Guterres; PS	Prime Minister after election ; José Manuel Barroso; PSD

The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis.^[1] Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district.^[2]

Government fall

The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections.^[3] The party lost major municipalities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp".^[4] Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002.^[5]

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 2000 leadership election

After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized.^[6] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute.^[7] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

Ballot: 27 February 2000
Candidate		Votes	%
	José Manuel Durão Barroso	469	50.3
	Pedro Santana Lopes	313	33.6
	Luís Marques Mendes	150	16.1
Turnout		932
Source: Results

PS 2002 leadership election

Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,^[8] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote.^[9] In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes.^[10] The results were the following:

Ballot: 18 and 19 January 2002
Candidate		%
	Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues	96.5
	Paulo Penedos	2.7
Blank/Invalid ballots		0.8
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.^[11]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.^[12] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.^[13]

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:^[14]

District	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon^(–1)	48	18 6 38 5 4 15 9 4 10 5 10 10 48 3 3 17 3 8 5 5 2 2
Porto⁽⁺¹⁾	38
Braga⁽⁺¹⁾	18
Setúbal	17
Aveiro	15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra	10
Viseu	9
Faro	8
Viana do Castelo	6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real	5
Bragança and Guarda	4
Beja, Évora^(–1) and Portalegre	3
Europe and Outside Europe	2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	1999 result
Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	%	Seats
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Centre-left	Ferro Rodrigues	44.1%	115 / 230
	PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism Classical liberalism	Centre-right	José Manuel Durão Barroso	32.3%	81 / 230
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Carlos Carvalhas	9.0% ^[a]	15 / 230
	PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism Green politics	Left-wing	Isabel Castro	9.0% ^[a]	2 / 230
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy Conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Paulo Portas	8.3%	15 / 230
	BE	Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda	Democratic socialism Anti-capitalism	Left-wing	Francisco Louçã	2.4%	2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans

	Original slogan	English translation	Refs
PS	« Fazer bem »	"Doing well"	^[15]
PSD	« Somos todos Portugal »	"We are all Portugal"	^[16]
CDU	« Mudar para melhor »	"Change for the better"	^[17]
CDS–PP	« O braço direito de Portugal »	"Portugal's right-hand man"	^[18]
BE	« Com Razões Fortes »	"With Strong Reasons"	^[19]

Candidates' debates

2002 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present A Absent invitee N Non-invitee
			PS Rodrigues	PSD Barroso	CDU Carvalhas	CDS–PP Portas	BE Louçã	Refs
								Refs
26 Feb	SIC		P	P	N	N	N	^[20]
12 Mar	RTP1	Judite de Sousa José Alberto Carvalho	P	P	P	P	P	^[21]

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

Exit poll

Date Released	Polling Firm	PS					Others	Lead
Date Released	Polling Firm						Others	Lead

17 Mar 2002	Leg. election	37.8 96	40.2 105	6.9 12	8.7 14	2.7 3	3.7 0	2.4

17 Mar 2002 (20:00)	RTP1 - Universidade Católica	36.0–41.0	37.0–42.0	5.5–8.0	7.5–10.0	3.0–4.0	—	1.0
17 Mar 2002 (20:00)	SIC - Eurosondagem	35.5–39.3	40.1–43.9	6.2–8.4	6.2–8.4	2.0–3.4	—	4.6
17 Mar 2002 (20:00)	TVI - INTERCAMPUS	35.5–40.5	37.8–42.8	6.8–9.8	5.3–8.3	1.6–4.2	—	2.3
15 Mar 2002	Marktest	35.2	43.7	8.1	6.0	3.7	3.3	8.5
15 Mar 2002	Lusófona	40.9	43.6	5.7	7.1	2.8	—	2.7
15 Mar 2002	Eurosondagem	39.3	41.4	6.9	5.6	3.5	3.3	2.1
15 Mar 2002	Eurequipa	33.9	44.7	7.1	9.1	3.2	2.0	10.8
15 Mar 2002	Universidade Católica	37.5	42.2	6.9	6.8	3.6	3.0	4.7
14 Mar 2002	INTERCAMPUS	39.0	41.0	8.0	5.0	3.0	4.0	2.0
14 Mar 2002	Aximage	40.0	44.0	7.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	4.0
13 Mar 2002	SIC/Visão	36.2	41.0	6.6	5.2	2.0	9.0	4.8
8 Mar 2002	Marktest	36.0	43.0	6.0	7.0	4.0	4.0	7.0
2 Mar 2002	Eurosondagem	35.0	38.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	14.0	3.0
27 Feb 2002	Universidade Católica	35.6	43.5	—	—	—	20.9	7.9
Feb 2002	Marktest	34.7	45.7	6.7	7.3	2.5	3.1	11.0
Jan 2002	Marktest	33.8	41.8	9.6	8.1	2.5	4.2	8.0
22 Dec 2001	Marktest	34.0	39.0	11.0	9.0	3.0	4.0	5.0
16 Dec 2001	Local elections	37.1	41.0	10.6	4.0	1.2	6.1	3.9
Nov 2001	Marktest	35.4	33.7	10.6	11.6	2.9	5.8	1.7
Oct 2001	Marktest	35.9	33.9	10.5	11.5	2.7	5.5	2.0
26 Jan 2001	Marktest	37.0	33.0	10.0	11.0	3.0	6.0	4.0
8 May 2000	Universidade Católica^[b]	40.9	32.5	6.7	8.1	3.0	8.8	8.4

10 Oct 1999	Leg. election	44.1 115	32.3 81	9.0 17	8.3 15	2.4 2	3.9 0	11.9

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas. Due to lack of data from the 1999 election, it's not possible to compare the turnout throughout election day between the two elections.

Turnout	Time
	12:00		16:00		19:00
	1999	2002	1999	2002	1999	2002	±
Total	—	18.00%	—	45.88%	61.09%	61.48%	0.39 pp

Sources^[22]^[23]

National summary of votes and seats

Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties		Votes	%	±	MPs					MPs %/ votes %

Parties		Votes	%	±	1999	2002	±	%	±	MPs %/ votes %
	Social Democratic	2,200,765	40.21	7.9	81	105	24	45.65	10.4	1.14
	Socialist	2,068,584	37.79	6.3	115	96	19	41.74	8.3	1.10
	People's	477,350	8.72	0.4	15	14	1	6.09	0.4	0.70
	Democratic Unity Coalition^[c]	379,870	6.94	2.1	17	12	5	5.22	2.2	0.75
	Left Bloc	149,966	2.74	0.3	2	3	1	1.30	0.4	0.47
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	36,193	0.66	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	15,540	0.28	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	People's Monarchist	12,398	0.23	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Humanist	11,472	0.21	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	National Renovator	4,712	0.09	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Workers Party of Socialist Unity	4,316	0.08	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Left Bloc/People's Democratic Union^[d]	3,911	0.07	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	National Solidarity^[e]^[24]	0	0.00	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		5,365,881	98.03	0.0	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		55,121	1.01	0.1
Invalid ballots		52,653	0.96	0.0
Total		5,473,655	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		8,902,713	61.48	0.4
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share

PSD			40.21%
PS			37.79%
CDS-PP			8.72%
CDU			6.94%
BE			2.74%
PCTP/MRPP			0.66%
Others			0.96%
Blank/Invalid			1.97%

Parliamentary seats

PSD			45.65%
PS			41.74%
CDS-PP			6.09%
CDU			5.22%
BE			1.30%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
Constituency	PSD		PS		CDS–PP		CDU		BE		Total S
Azores	45.4	3	41.0	2	8.4	-	1.4	-	1.4	-	5
Aveiro	46.4	8	33.5	5	12.9	2	2.6	-	1.8	-	15
Beja	21.2	-	43.5	2	3.7	-	24.2	1	1.9	-	3
Braga	44.4	9	37.4	8	9.3	1	4.4	-	1.7	-	18
Bragança	53.2	3	30.0	1	10.9	-	1.9	-	0.9	-	4
Castelo Branco	38.3	2	46.1	3	7.1	-	3.3	-	1.5	-	5
Coimbra	41.0	5	41.3	5	6.7	-	5.1	-	2.4	-	10
Évora	25.3	1	42.8	1	4.6	-	21.8	1	1.8	-	3
Faro	37.7	4	40.5	4	8.3	-	6.3	-	2.8	-	8
Guarda	48.5	2	34.7	2	9.6	-	2.2	-	1.2	-	4
Leiria	50.8	6	29.5	3	9.8	1	4.1	-	2.2	-	10
Lisbon	35.7	18	38.7	20	8.5	4	8.8	4	4.7	2	48
Madeira	53.5	4	25.8	1	12.1	-	2.5	-	3.1	-	5
Portalegre	30.6	1	45.2	2	6.4	-	12.4	-	1.6	-	3
Porto	40.0	16	41.2	17	8.4	3	4.6	1	2.7	1	38
Santarém	38.1	4	38.4	4	8.4	1	8.6	1	2.9	-	10
Setúbal	24.7	5	39.3	7	6.9	1	20.5	4	4.6	-	17
Viana do Castelo	45.5	3	35.3	3	10.3	-	3.5	-	1.8	-	6
Vila Real	54.1	3	31.9	2	8.1	-	2.0	-	0.9	-	5
Viseu	52.1	5	31.1	3	10.6	1	1.5	-	1.4	-	9
Europe	36.9	1	42.1	1	5.0	-	4.8	-	1.1	-	2
Outside Europe	66.3	2	21.5	-	3.4	-	0.9	-	0.4	-	2
Total	40.2	105	37.8	96	8.7	14	6.9	12	2.7	3	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Winner and seats by constituency.
Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's.^[25] This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, even hosting a summit at Lajes Field, in the Azores, between the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain, which divided public opinion.^[26] In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33 percent of the votes, against the 44 percent of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission.^[27] Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister.^[28]

Fall of the government

Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions.^[29] One of these disputes was the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful".^[30] Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit",^[31] and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a President.^[32]^[33] Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation.^[34] A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005.^[35]

Notes

^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
^ Results presented here exclude abstention (19.7%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 32.8%; PSD: 26.1%; CDS-PP: 6.5%; CDU: 5.4%; BE: 2.4%; Others/Invalid: 7.1%.
^ Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
^ Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
^ The National Solidarity Party (PSN) ran a list in Vila Real district, but dropped out before election day and got just 7 votes. In the certified results, the votes are counted as invalid.

References

^ "António Guterres e o pântano ", Público, 31 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Há 21 anos o orçamento valeu um queijo limiano ", Observador, 12 October 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "PS sofre hecatombe inesperada ", Público, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 13 October 2016. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Sampaio assina decreto que dissolve Parlamento e marca eleições antecipadas ", Público, 17 January 2002. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Divisões no PSD", RTP, 17 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
^ "Durão Barroso desafia Santana Lopes", RTP, 19 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
^ "Guterres apresenta demissão depois de derrota nas autárquicas (act)", Jornal de Negócios, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
^ "Acção Socialista", PS, 10 January 2002. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
^ "Ferro Rodrigues eleito novo secretário-geral do PS ", Público, 20 January 2002. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "PCP Legislativas 2002". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "Manifesto Legislativas 2002". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "Debate Ferro/Durão visto por 1,2 milhões de espectadores". Público (in Portuguese). 27 Feb 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "DEBATE: LEGISLATIVAS 2005". RTP1 (in Portuguese). 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "Votaram 18 por cento dos eleitores até ao meio-dia". Público (in Portuguese). 17 March 2002. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
^ "00, mais de metade dos eleitores já tinha votado". RTP (in Portuguese). 20 February 2005. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
^ "Josué, o "Marquês de Pombal" do PSN em Vila Real ", Público, 19 March 2002. Retrieved 25 June 2022.
^ "2002: O regresso da coligação de Direita ao poder", SIC Notícias, 1 October 2019. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
^ "Cimeira nas Lajes", RTP, 16 March 2003. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
^ "Durão Barroso apresenta demissão para ser presidente da Comissão Europeia ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
^ "O dia em que Jorge Sampaio decepcionou os socialistas", Expresso, 15 January 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
^ "As "trapalhadas" de Santana em 2004 (que Rio apoiou e Marcelo arrasou) ", Observador, 21 December 2017. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Henrique Chaves demite-se do Governo por falta de «lealdade e de verdade» de Santana", Jornal de Negócios, 28 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Jorge Sampaio anuncia a dissolução do Parlamento ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Jorge Sampaio vai dissolver Assembleia da República ", Público, 30 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "A bomba atómica de Sampaio", Correio da Manhã, 10 September 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
^ "Santana Lopes pede demissão do XVI Governo Constitucional ", Público, 11 December 2004. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
^ "Jorge Sampaio assinou hoje decreto de dissolução do Parlamento ", Público, 22 December 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.

External links

Preliminary results of the 2002 election
Comissão Nacional de Eleições Archived 2005-04-08 at the Wayback Machine
Centro de Estudos do Pensamento Político