Demographics of France

Population pyramid before and after the First World War

 

1914

 

1920

 

Starting around 1800, the historical evolution of the population in France has been atypical in Europe. Unlike the rest of Europe, there was no strong population growth in France in the 19th and first half of the 20th century. The birth rate in France diminished much earlier than in the rest of Europe in part because inheritance laws dictated distribution of estates whereas in the UK wealth could be passed to the eldest son or child.^{[original research?]} The country's large population gave Napoleon a seemingly limitless supply of men for the Grande Armée, but the birth rate began to fall in the late 18th century;^[21] thus population growth was quite slow in the 19th century, and the nadir was reached in the first half of the 20th century when France, surrounded by the rapidly growing populations of Germany and the United Kingdom, had virtually zero growth. The slow growth of France's population in the 19th century was reflected in the country's very low emigration rate.

The French population only grew by 8.6% between 1871 and 1911, while Germany's grew by 60% and Britain's by 54%.^[22]

French concerns about the country's slow population growth began after its defeat in the Franco-Prussian War. For four years in the 1890s, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. The National Alliance for the Growth of the French Population (ANAPF) was formed in 1896, and the Cognacq-Jay and other prizes were created for the parents of large families. Émile Zola's 1899 novel Fécondité is representative of contemporary concerns about the birthrate. France lost 10% of its active male population in World War I; the 1.3 million French deaths, along with even more births forgone by potential fathers being off at war, caused a drop of 3 million in the French population, and helped make Dénatalité a national obsession; by 1920 ANAPF had 40,000 members, and in July that year a new law strictly regulated abortion and contraception.^[21][22]

ANAPF proposed that parents of large families receive extra votes, and the belief that women's suffrage in other countries caused birth rates to decline helped defeat proposals before World War II to permit women to vote. The birth rate declined again after a brief baby boom from 1920 to 1923, and reached an all-time low during peacetime in the late 1930s. During the "hollow years" of the decade, the number of new conscripts declined because of the lack of births during World War I. From 1935 deaths exceeded births; the press widely discussed the country's decreasing population. Both left and right supported pro-natalist policies; even the French Communist Party ended its opposition to anti-birth control and anti-abortion laws in 1936, and its leader, Maurice Thorez, advocated for the "protection of family and childhood".^[21][22]

New laws in November 1938 and July 1939, the code de la famille, provided enough financial incentives for large families to double the income of a family with six children. The Vichy government approved of the laws and implemented them as part of its Travail, famille, patrie national motto, as did the postwar Provisional Government of the French Republic.^[22][21][23] Also, France encouraged immigration, chiefly from other European countries such as Italy, Poland, and Spain. (In fact, with its low birth rate, stagnating or declining native-born population, and role as a destination for migrants from other parts of Europe, France's situation before World War II was not unlike that of Germany today.)

France experienced a baby boom after 1945; it reversed a long-term record of low birth rates.^[21][25] The government's pro-natalist policy of the 1930s do not explain this sudden recovery, which was often portrayed inside France as a "miracle". It was also atypical of the Western world: although there was a baby boom in other Western countries after the war, the baby boom in France was much stronger, and lasted longer than in most other Western countries (the United States was one of the few exceptions). In the 1950s and 1960s, France's population grew at 1% per year: the highest growth in the history of France, higher even than the high growth rates of the 18th or 19th century.

Since 1975, France's population growth rate has significantly diminished, but it still remains slightly higher than that of the rest of Europe, and much faster than at the end of the 19th century and during the first half of the 20th century. In the first decade of the third millennium, population growth in France was the highest in Europe, matched only by that of the Republic of Ireland, which has also historically undergone stagnant growth and even decline relative to the rest of Europe until recently. However, it is lower than that of the United States, largely because of the latter's higher net migration rate.

The following compares the past, present, and future size of the French population with other entities in Europe and in the world. All statements refer to France as understood in its modern borders; this pertains also to other countries. Historians suggest that France was the most populous state in Europe from at least the period of Charlemagne and the Frankish Empire, if not earlier, to the 19th century. Population statistics prior to the modern era are historical estimates as official counts were not made.

• Until 1795 metropolitan France was the most populous country of Europe, ahead of Russia, and the fourth most populous country in the world, behind only China, India and Japan;
• Between 1795 and 1866, metropolitan France was the second most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, and the fourth most populous country in the world, behind China, India and Russia (having become more populous than Japan during this period);
• Between 1866 and 1909, metropolitan France was the third most populous country of Europe, behind Russia and Germany;
• Between 1909 and 1933, metropolitan France was the fourth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom;
• Between 1933 and 1991, metropolitan France was the fifth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy;
• Since 1991, metropolitan France recovered its rank as the fourth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Worldwide, France's ranking has fallen to twentieth most populous country;
• In 2005 it was projected that if current demographic trends continued (i.e. declining population in Germany, and slightly rising population in France and the UK), around 2050 metropolitan France could again surpass the population of Germany, becoming the most populous state in the European Union.^[26] In contrast, 2009 UN projections say that the stronger-growing United Kingdom could be more populous than France in 2050, leaving France third amongst European nations, behind Russia and the UK.^{[citation needed]}

In the above list, Turkey is not considered a European country. Turkey was less populous than metropolitan France until 1992 but is now more populous.^[27]

^[28]

Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review in 2020.^[29]

• One birth every 44 seconds
• One death every 53 seconds
• One net migrant every 11 minutes
• Net gain of one person every 3 minutes

Demographic statistics according to the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.

Please note:

• figures are for metropolitan France only, not including overseas departments and territories, as former French colonies and protectorates. Algeria and its départements, although they were an integral part of metropolitan France until 1962, are not included in the figures.
• to make comparisons easier, figures provided below are for the territory of metropolitan France within the borders of 2004. This was the real territory of France from 1860 to 1871, and again since 1919. Figures before 1860 have been adjusted to include Savoy and Nice, which only became part of France in 1860. Figures between 1795 and 1815 do not include the French départements in modern-day Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, although they were an integral part of France during that period. Figures between 1871 and 1919 have been adjusted to include Alsace and part of Lorraine, which both were at the time part of the German Empire.
• figures before 1801 are modern estimates which do not include for the Roman Empire parts of Gaul that were in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg; figures from 1801 (included) onwards are based on the official French censuses.

Source:^[30]

 

Source: Louis Henry and Yves Blayo.^[31]

 

 

Life expectancy in Metropolitan France from 1818 to 1950. Source: Our World In Data.

Death rate 9.6 deaths/1,000 population (2021 est.)

 

 

Age structures of the France métropolitaine from the year 1740 to 2021. Source: Louis Henry and Yves Blayo.^[31][35]

Median age (2021 INSEE est.^[36])

total: 41.1 years. Country comparison to the world: 40th

male: 39.6 years

female: 42.6 years

 

Sex ratio

at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female

0-14 years: 1.05 male(s)/female

15-24 years: 1.05 male(s)/female

25-54 years: 1.02 male(s)/female

55-64 years: 0.93 male(s)/female

65 years and over: 0.77 male(s)/female

total population: 0.96 male(s)/female (2020 est.))

Dependency ratios

total dependency ratio: 62.4

youth dependency ratio: 28.7

elderly dependency ratio: 33.7

potential support ratio: 3 (2020 est.)

 

France has a high fertility rate compared to other European countries; this rate has increased after reaching a historic low in the early 1990s.

• Total fertility rate: 2.01 children born per woman for metropolitan France and the overseas departments (in 2012),^[37] 2.00 for metropolitan France alone (in 2010).^[38]
• Mean age of women having their first birth: 29.9 years-old.^[39]

The table below gives the average number of children according to the place of birth of women. An immigrant woman is a woman who was born outside France and who did not have French citizenship at birth.^[40]

In 2021 there was 11.8 births/1,000 population. Total fertility rate (2020 data by INSEE^[13]) 1.83 children born/woman.

Mother's mean age at first birth^[41]

28.5 years (2015)

 

The total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. It is based on fairly good data for the entire period. Sources: Our World In Data and Gapminder Foundation.^[43]

About 22% of newborns in France between 2006 and 2008 had at least one foreign-born grandparent (9% born in another European country, 8% born in the Maghreb and 2% born in another region of the world).^[19]

As of 2022, 32.4% of newborns in France had at least one foreign-born parent and 28.5% had at least one parent born outside of Europe (EU 28) (parents born in overseas territories are considered as born in France).^[16][18]

The table below gives the number of children born in metropolitan France according to the place of birth of both parents.

As of 2022, 74.0% of newborns in France had two parents with French citizenship, 14.4% had one French parent, and 11.5% had two non-French parents.^[16][44]

The table below gives the number of children born in metropolitan France according to the citizenship of both parents.

The population of France is predicted to hit the 70 million mark between the year 2025/2030 and to overtake Germany's between 2050/2060, with 75.6 million French for 71 million Germans in 2060, while the UK is predicted to overtake France by 2030. By 2080, the population of France is estimated to reach 78.8 million (including the overseas departments, but not the overseas territories).

 

Figures from eurostat for metropolitan France and the overseas departments:

Source:^[45]

 

The vital statistics below refer to France Métropolitaine and do not include the overseas departments, territories and New Caledonia.^[46]

For the purpose of compatibility, all data refers to Metropolitan France

^[49][50]

Period	Live births	Deaths	Natural increase
January — October 2023	533,650	509,716	+23,900
January — October 2024	524,700	515,200	+9,500
Difference	-8,950 (-1.68%)	+5,484 (+1,08%)	-14,400

As of 2023, 66.4% of newborn babies had both parents born in France, 15.1% had one foreign-born parent, and 18.5% had two foreign-born parents. In the same year, 72.6% of newborn babies had both parents with French citizenship, 14.6% had one French and one foreign parent, and 12.8% had both parents with foreign citizenship.^[51]

2023^[52]

Regions	TFR
Centre-Val de Loire	1.75
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur	1.74
Ile-de-France	1.73
Hauts-de-France	1.70
Normandy	1.68
Pays de la Loire	1.68
Metropolitan France	1.64
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté	1.62
Brittany	1.62
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes	1.61
Occitania	1.53
Nouvelle-Aquitaine	1.51
Grand Est	1.49
Corsica	1.28

INSEE counts individuals born alive in mainland France according to the detailed place of birth of the parents:^[54]

Note: In 2010 some foreigners not declared country : father - 17,536; mother - 3,754

 

 

In 2020, there was a total of 154,581 marriages in France.^[55]

Unemployment, youth ages 15–24:

Total: 20.8%. Country comparison to the world: 61st.

Male: 21.4%.

Female: 20% (2018 est.).^[45]

Note: people born outside of France (including the overseas departments) are referred to as immigrants regardless of their nationality (French or foreign). People without French nationality are referred to as foreigners regardless of their birthplace (France or abroad).

Due to a law dating from 1872 at the start of the Third Republic, France has prohibited the collection of data on a citizen’s race, ethnicity, or their beliefs, such as religion, through national censuses,^{[57][58][failed verification]} however, estimates have been made of the ethnic and racial demography of the country in the present.

Some organizations, such as the Representative Council of Black Associations of France (French: Conseil représentatif des associations noires de France, CRAN), have argued in favour of the introduction of data collection on minority groups but this has been resisted by other organizations and ruling politicians,^[59][60] often on the grounds that collecting such statistics goes against France's secular principles and harks back to Vichy-era identity documents.^[61] During the 2007 presidential election, however, Nicolas Sarkozy, polled on the issue, stated that he favoured the collection of data on ethnicity.^[62] Part of a parliamentary bill that would have permitted the collection of data for the purpose of measuring discrimination was rejected by the Conseil Constitutionnel in November 2007.^[57]

However, that law does not concern surveys and polls, which are free to ask those questions if they wish. The law also allows for an exception for public institutions such as the INED or the INSEE whose job it is to collect data on demographics, social trends and other related subjects, on condition that the collection of such data has been authorized by the National Commission for Computer-stocked data and Freedom (CNIL) and the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS).^[63]

The modern ethnic French are the descendants of Celts, Iberians, Ligurians, Italic peoples (including Romans), and Greeks in southern France,^[64][65] later mixed with large groups of Germanic peoples arriving at the end of the Roman Empire such as the Franks, Burgundians, Alamanni, and Goths,^[66] Moors and Saracens in the south,^{[67][68][69][70][71][72][73]} and Scandinavians, Vikings, who became, by mixing with the local population, the Normans and settled mostly in Normandy in the 9th century.^[74]

In 1960 there was approximately 500,000 'coloured' people present in France, constituting 1.2% of the population.^[75] In 2004, French conservative think-tank Institut Montaigne estimated that there were 51 million (85%) people of European ethnic origin, 6 million (10%) North African people, 2 million (3.5%) black people and 1 million (1.5%) people of Asian^{[clarification needed]} origin in Metropolitan France, including all generations of immigrant descendants.^[76] TIME magazine in 2009 estimated that there was an estimated range of 4 to 7 million Arabs, 3 to 5 million Blacks, 1.5 million Asians and around 600,000 Jewish people.^[77] Solis, a marketing company, estimated the numbers for ethnic minorities (immigrants and 2nd generation) in France in 2009 as 3.26 million Maghrebis (5.23%), 1.83 million black people (2.94%) (1.08 million Sub-Saharan Africans and 757,000 French from French West Indies), and 250,000 Turkish (0.71%).^[78][79]

In 2015, Michèle Tribalat released a paper estimating population of ethnic minorities in France in 2011 to constitute 30% if ancestry retracted to 3 generations but with age limit of 60. 15% were of other European origin and another 15% rest.^[80]

Newly released figures from France’s national statistical agency, which pulled census data from 2019-2020, revealed that nearly one-third of children aged four years and below are of non-European origin, a number which stands in sharp contrast with those recorded in older generations.

The data, published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), indicates that among those aged four and below living in ordinary housing (all residences excluding those for students, the elderly, and asylum seekers) in metropolitan France, 41.6% were born outside of France themselves, or are descendants of non-French parents or grandparents, with 29.6% having origins outside of Europe.

By comparison, a mere 7.6% of 60 to 64-year-olds and 3.1% of those over the age of 80 were of non-European origin over three generations, meaning they themselves, their parents, or grandparents were born outside of Europe.

Figures also revealed that 16.2% of all children aged four and below living in France are of Maghreb descent—a term used to describe the predominately Arab regions of northwest Africa, including Morocco, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, and Tunisia. One in ten children in the same age group in France are immigrants or are the children of immigrants from elsewhere in Europe, with 7.3% having originated from sub-Saharan Africa, 4% from Asia, and 1.7% from the rest of the world.

The Paris region is a magnet for immigrants, hosting one of the largest concentrations of immigrants in Europe. As of 2006, about 45% of people (6 million) living in the region were either immigrant (25%) or born to at least one immigrant parent (20%).^[81]

Of European ethnic groups not indigenous to France, the most numerous are people of Italian family origin and it is estimated that about 5 million citizens (8% of the population) are at least partly of Italian origin if their parentage is retraced over three generations.^[82] This is due to waves of Italian immigration, notably during the late 19th century and early 20th century. Other large European groups of non-native origin are Spaniards, Portuguese, Romanians, Poles, and Greeks. Also, due to more recent immigration, between five and six million people of Maghrebi origin^[83] and approximately 800,000 Turks inhabit France.^[84][85]