2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
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Elections in Massachusetts |
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Massachusetts portal |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Massachusetts voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A New England state, Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3][4] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[5] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[6]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 533,096 | 80.5% | 91 | 91 | |
No Preference | 60,236 | 9.1% | 1 | 1 | |
Dean Phillips | 29,728 | 4.5% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 20,402 | 3.1% | |||
Other candidates | 10,135 | 1.5% | |||
Cenk Uygur (write-in) | 82 | <0.1% | |||
Blank ballots | 8,930 | 1.3% | |||
Total: | 662,609 | 100% | 92 | 92 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 343,189 | 59.56% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
Nikki Haley | 211,440 | 36.69% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
No Preference | 5,717 | 0.99% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 5,217 | 0.91% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,981 | 0.69% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,738 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Other candidates | 1,674 | 0.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 619 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 527 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Blank ballots | 2,148 | 0.37% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 576,250 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
Libertarian primary
[edit]The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
No Preference | 3,982 | 36.45% |
Chase Oliver | 1,453 | 13.30% |
Jacob Hornberger | 1,089 | 9.97% |
Michael Rectenwald | 546 | 5.00% |
Lars Mapstead | 399 | 3.65% |
Mike ter Maat | 314 | 2.87% |
All Others | 2,161 | 19.78% |
Blank ballots | 980 | 8.97% |
Total: | 10,924 | 100.00% |
Source:[9] |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[10] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[11] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[14] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[15] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[16] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
538[17] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[18] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
NBC News[19] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ActiVote[20] | September 6 – October 16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 33% | – |
MassINC Polling Group[21][A] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 63% | 35% | 2%[c] |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[22][B] | October 3–10, 2024 | 700 (A) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 30% | – | 2% | 1% | 11%[d] |
Suffolk University[23][C] | October 1–4, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 61% | 32% | – | 1% | 0% | 6%[d] |
University of New Hampshire[24] | September 12–16, 2024 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 62% | 31% | – | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MassINC Polling Group[21] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[e] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University[25][C] | July 16–18, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 29% | 24% |
University of New Hampshire[26] | May 16–20, 2024 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 68% | 32% | – |
John Zogby Strategies[27][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 534 (LV) | – | 55% | 36% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 271 (RV) | – | 58% | 34% | 8%[f] |
263 (LV) | 59% | 34% | 7%[f] | |||
University of Massachusetts Lowell[29] | October 18–25, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 58% | 32% | 10% |
Emerson College[30] | September 7–8, 2022 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
University of Massachusetts Lowell[31] | June 7–15, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 31% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[26] | May 16–20, 2024 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 55% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
MassINC Polling Group[32][E] | March 21–29, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 26% | 7% | 2% | – | 21%[g] |
46%[h] | 28% | 9% | 2% | – | 15%[i] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[33][B] | May 17–30, 2024 | 700 (A) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 27% | 9% | 16% |
Suffolk University[34][C] | April 16–20, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 22% | 8% | 18% |
Suffolk University[35] | February 2–5, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 26% | 9% | 21% |
YouGov[36][B] | October 13–20, 2023 | 700 (V) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 21% | 17% | 19% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[27][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 534 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[27][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 534 (LV) | – | 46% | 33% | 21% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | |||||
Republican | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Green-Rainbow |
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Socialism and Liberation | |||||
Independent |
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Massachusetts
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 1% each
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Another candidate" & "Would not vote" with 3% each
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Harris Easily Leads in Massachusetts". ActiVote.
- ^ a b Wuthmann, Walter (September 23, 2024). "New WBUR poll finds strong support for Harris, Warren in Mass". WBUR.
- ^ "UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll Finds Bay State Residents Evenly Split on 'Psychedelics,' Majority Support Eliminating MCAS as High School Graduation Requirement and Other Ballot Questions". University of Massachusetts Amherst. October 15, 2024.
- ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (October 8, 2024). "Mass. voters overwhelmingly back Harris over Trump, eliminating MCAS graduation requirement, Suffolk/Globe poll finds". The Boston Globe.
- ^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (September 18, 2024). "Harris Enjoys High Marks on Debate, Commanding Lead Among Massachusetts Voters". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
- ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (July 19, 2024). "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee". The Boston Globe.
- ^ a b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024). "Biden Holds Large Lead Over Trump & Kennedy in MA; Residents Divided About Campus Protests". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
- ^ Dyck, Joshua; Cluverius, John; Buchanan, Mark (November 3, 2022). "MA Midterms Topline" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Dyck, Joshua; Cluverius, John (June 22, 2022). "2022 Mass Voters Issues Topline" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell.
- ^ Koczela, Steve (April 10, 2024). "Mass. poll finds likely voters lean more to Biden, echoing national trends". CommonWealth Beacon.
- ^ "Toplines - University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB May 2024 Massachusetts Poll" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Amherst. June 5, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 24, 2024.
- ^ Paltoff, Emma; Griswold, Niki (April 25, 2024). "Amid migrant crisis, Massachusetts voters support 'right-to-shelter' law — with reservations, new poll shows". The Boston Globe.
- ^ "Suffolk Poll: Immigration, Border Security Emerging as Top Voter Issues in Massachusetts" (PDF). Suffolk University. February 7, 2024.
- ^ "Toplines - University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB October 2023 Massachusetts Poll" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Amherst. October 25, 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 30, 2023.
- ^ "2024 State Election Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved September 23, 2024.