Talk:Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions

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The references in the ref column all seem to be references that show the candidate is indeed a candidate. These references were relevant before anyone had ballot access, but given that ballot access is being tracked, thes seem obsolete. I recommend that we remove this column from the candidate tables and move any references that are still relevant to the info that the reference is substantiating. Dhalsim2 (talk) 16:29, 21 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hi,

It looks like Independent Political Report is not a reliable source and its use should be avoided in this article. Please see [1] and [2].

Thanks, David O. Johnson (talk) 19:59, 3 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The comments which caused it to be tagged unreliable were from 14 years ago. It has undergone several ownership changes since then. The articles are signed now, the articles are now original , and the reporting has been at least as reliable as the other sources typically used for years now. I have no involvement with the site. Lane137 (talk) 22:20, 13 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Due to more states closing up Randall Terry is definitely out of getting 270. I even tried seeing if the Constitution Ticket as whole could do it(both him and Joel), but nope, tops out at like 254-259 (Probably botched a number there, but either way nope).

Cornell West is actually super close, 259 if he gets every open one still standing. I point this out because he's got a special write-in in Indiana which was done manually and isn't an automatic, and if that counts for something(it's more than the beige regular ones) or leaves him open to negotiation like the blue ones then his maximum is exactly 270.He's way too far behind tho so no worry here.

Claudia has like 291-302 open to being got(including what she already has) depending on Indiana(again, not sure how we're counting that, states like that tend to have better write in preformance than states that allow auto-write in, but not as good as on ballot, don't know if that changes the deadlines...). So she can afford another 21-32 electoral votes closing up before she's out of the count.

So if she hasn't crossed 270 by the 16th of August in the former scenario or 17th of August in the latter scenario(Let's just do that to be safe with Indiana) it's over and we can shuffle her to the bottom category. 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:55EC:9586:D034:6858 (talk) 20:36, 12 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I also want to raise the issue, are we ranking the candidates or the parties? Title of the article is both, but Party comes first.

This is mostly due to the Constitution Party. I don't have an issue listing 'Alliance' or 'Coalition' candidates who use multiple third parties together, that's their thing. Rocky did that in the prior 3 elections and RFK is somewhat doing it this time. I also don't mind ignoring when like, 1 or 2 state affiliated parties go rogue(The Greens occasionally have one or two states do their own thing like that one state that went with Bernie in 2016 or the Oregon branch siding with the Communists. Libertarians have issues in Montana or Colorado). But the Constitution Party thing is less that and moreso a proper party dispute. 3 states(as well as Arizona if they end up on the ballot there) put Joel as the candidate, 11 states(plus Delaware if that happens) picked Randall. This isn't one state joining a different coalition, it's them doing their own thing under the same broader banner.

It matters because at the current point total, if we ranked them together(Putting Randall and Joel's pictures and info on top of eachother, but both within the same purple CONSTITUTION PARTY bar on the far left of the list, if that makes sense) and all the ongoing states ended up on the ballot, Constitution Party has more ECVs open than Cornell West does. If you completely split Joel and Terry, they don't. If West can't get on anymore states, he has less either way though. And if you count Indiana for West(another discussion above), he's actually ahead whether or not you combine Joel and Terry. And they could both get on grey states still.

It does matter, both for organizational purposes(having Joel way off lower down is kinda annoying) and potentially sorting purposes as his ECV's open could make the difference between them being above or below Cornell West on the list 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:55EC:9586:D034:6858 (talk) 20:46, 12 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

With Arizona closing up on the 17th, Claudia is now out of range of 270. The most she can get is 267 (if you count Indiana) unless she has a lawsuit ongoing in a state where the deadline has passed. Thecommander236 (talk) 00:58, 19 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Correction, as of today, if you count Indiana's qualified write-in, Claudia can BARELY get to 270, again, unless she has an on-going lawsuit of which I'm not aware. Thecommander236 (talk) 02:03, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

It appears that your maps show Randall Terry as only being on the ballot in the states where the constitution party affiliates have not rejected him. He also qualified for the ballot in at least one additional state, Idaho, as an independent even though the constitution party rejected him. There may be additional states. Lane137 (talk) 22:25, 13 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I have also heard this, but have been unable to find a solid source for it. Happy to add if someone can find one. Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 00:38, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

In addition to the campaign itself your best source would be

Richard Winger, publisher of ballot access news

P.O. Box 470296,

San Francisco, CA 94147

richardwinger at yahoo dot com

(415) 922-9779

I always found him to be very easy to reach by email and phone. I don't think I ever tried to snail mail him. I don't know how easy or hard Terry or his campaign ate to reach.

If you need a public published source ask Richard to pop out an article and he probably would.

Other than that all I know of is public comments at BAN and IPR but I'll try to find you something .

I can't contact Richard myself now since I no longer use email or do voice calls, only text, and as far as I know Richard still doesn't text. The phone number is a landline. Lane137 (talk) 02:36, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

one other suggestion if you have the time, https://voteidaho.gov/election-information/ I did not find it on there but maybe I didn't look in the right part and they also have contact info as well. If you reach out to them they may know where it's listed. If you have other time after that you can check other states. Lane137 (talk) 03:10, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

9 presidential candidates qualify

https://mynorthwest.com/3976922/9-minor-parties-independent-candidates-qualify-washingtons-general-election-ballot/ Lane137 (talk) 03:15, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Here's the official statement from the Secretary of State:

https://www.sos.wa.gov/about-office/news/2024/nine-presidential-nominations-minor-parties-and-independent-candidates-qualify-washingtons-november 2601:601:785:3B10:A099:2B43:603C:54FC (talk) 03:36, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry, I don't know how to delete a topic. Everything I posted earlier is already on the maps now.

Rfk jr qualified

https://ballot-access.org/2024/08/13/kennedys-party-has-enough-valid-signatures-in-oregon/ Lane137 (talk) 03:39, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Kennedy qualified

https://ballot-access.org/2024/08/13/west-virginia-secretary-of-state-says-robert-f-kennedy-jr-has-enough-valid-signatures/ Lane137 (talk) 03:55, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

According to this article, several third-party candidates have gotten ballot access in Georgia including, "Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and Claudia De la Cruz," (Winger 2024).

Source: https://ballot-access.org/2024/08/14/georgia-secretary-of-state-says-three-presidential-petitions-have-enough-valid-signatures/ Azure14017 (talk) 16:27, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Furthermore, the Green Party should have access automatically since they are already on the ballot in 20+ states. The Georgia law pass in 2016 would allow Jill Stein to be on the ballot. Thecommander236 (talk) 19:19, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I believe the issue was the Georgia Green Party wasn’t affiliated until last week so didn’t qualify. You can see on her site it says she’s perusing write-in access not ballot access (which it previously stated)

https://www.jillstein2024ballotaccess.com/ Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 20:19, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

they now have a Georgia affiliate

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/08/green-party-of-the-united-states-gains-new-affiliate-in-georgia/

I don't think that matters - as far as I know the requirement is just that they have ballot access in 20 other states. Lane137 (talk) 20:23, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Right but why else would Stein have changed her site for Georgia from on ballot to write-in Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 21:36, 14 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Good question. Maybe ask Stein campaign and or Winger. Just checked ga sos and found a listing of every other kind of candidate except presidential. Lane137 (talk) 00:27, 15 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Speaking of which, her Website also says she's on the ballot in Alaska which is bizarre because it's not backed up by Alaska's website or Ballotpedia:

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=24genr

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Alaska,_2024

Is there another source that she could be pulling that from? Thecommander236 (talk) 16:36, 15 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hi,

I added a Talk page section to start a discussion to go with the WP:SYNTH tag that was added by Prcc27 to the Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election#General election candidates section of the article on August 9.

Thanks, David O. Johnson (talk) 20:56, 15 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Sherman took down the dropping out statement on there website (see JasmineSherman.com).

In other news, ballotpedia says Sherman is on the Florida ballot: https://ballotpedia.org/Jasmine_Sherman

ballotpedia may not be reliable, but it should be looked at. 24.73.80.178 (talk) 01:19, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed. Add Florida to list? 2600:1006:B15B:61E4:F151:6DFA:385E:C6A (talk) 19:36, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

She filed a statement of candidacy back in 2022 but never submitted electors or signatures

https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/campaign-docs/?account=83496 Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 21:02, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Given Florida's strict ballot access guidelines, I find it highly unlikely that she is on the Florida ballot. I'm not sure where Ballotpedia got their list of candidates from. LV ^{✉ ✎} 21:07, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

??? 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:253B:8C79:F6FA:B815 (talk) 01:00, 19 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Yes. Thecommander236 (talk) 02:31, 19 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Just finished updating the maps and someone got ahead of me and just did it themselves 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:E966:FB7F:B8AC:6CF6 (talk) 03:55, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

You can black out Arizona on Randall Terry's map and turn New Hampshire blue on that same map. Thecommander236 (talk) 14:08, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

She's good til the 23rd when Virginia runs out, 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:E966:FB7F:B8AC:6CF6 (talk) 04:15, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed, as I said in your previous thread. With Indiana as a qualified write-in, she can barely get to 270. Though, I'm unaware if she has any lawsuits on-going. Unlike Cornel West, Oliver Chase, RFK Jr., the Green Party and Jill Stein, and the Constitution Party, Claudia doesn't have a website with a Ballot Access map.

https://www.cornelwest2024.com/ballotaccess

https://votechaseoliver.com/ballot-access/

https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

https://www.gp.org/ballot_access

https://www.jillstein2024ballotaccess.com/

https://constitutionparty.com/elections/ballot-access/ Thecommander236 (talk) 12:24, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Technically anyone can get to 270 if you count write-ins. In most states the write-in deadline has not passed yet Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 17:12, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

True. If you count the write-in states, she can get to 280. If she loses access in any of the following: Wisconsin, Ohio, Massachusetts, or Tennessee, then she will not be able to get majority access pending appeal. Thecommander236 (talk) 17:07, 21 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Aaaaaaand Claudia was just declared to not have access in Ohio: https://ballot-access.org/2024/08/21/ohio-says-four-presidential-petitions-have-enough-signatures-and-two-do-not/ Thecommander236 (talk) 17:19, 21 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Is that still true with the Registered Write in in Texas? TheBrodsterBoy (talk) 20:22, 22 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Didn't we agree Registered Write In's count for a bit more than Write Ins all else equal? TheBrodsterBoy (talk) 20:24, 22 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hello, I noticed that someone was removing candidates who don't yet have an FEC filing form but have been nominated by established political parties and are actively campaigning

Can we keep them? Sources exist, from BAN/Independent Political Report in all cases Microplastic Consumer (talk) 15:56, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

If you haven’t filed a declaration of candidacy you aren’t a candidate Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 17:10, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

That's not how that works, Novoselic was an active candidate gathering signatures and was on the Washington Ballot before he filed an FEC form.

Can we have a section titled "Candidates who haven't filed" or something? Microplastic Consumer (talk) 18:25, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I’d also push back on the claim that any are running an active campaign

Fiorino definitely not, after the Unity Party of Colorado nominated West, he agreed to run for Congress https://ballotpedia.org/Paul_Noel_Fiorino

Russell also no, the LP Tennessee chair said he *would* support him, but Russell has never since said he was running to my knowledge, it was more of a draft situation.

Schuller’s website doesn’t work https://dennisschuller.com/

and Marshall hasn’t mentioned running for President since February Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 20:28, 20 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Schuller has a new website here Microplastic Consumer (talk) 01:52, 21 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

https://cascadeparty.org/

So yeah. Maybe he shouldn't be on the list then or in the section with the drop-outs and people who didn't get on statements.

(Also with the Texas Registered Write in Claudia De La Cruz still has a path to 270, move her back) TheBrodsterBoy (talk) 20:47, 22 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

As I’ve said many times, everyone has a path to 270 with write-ins Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 19:03, 23 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

he will need to be removed since RFK Jr. looks like he's dropping out TruthplusFacts (talk) 03:40, 23 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

He hasn't dropped out yet. Wait until an announcement is made. David O. Johnson (talk) 03:43, 23 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I feel like we should keep Kennedy in the article, but maybe in a withdrawn section. As for the map.. Kennedy has already filed to withdraw his name from the ballot in Arizona. He is officially off the ballot in that state, we should update the map somehow. Prcc27 (talk) 05:41, 23 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

My computer can't handle editing this page, but I would like to put the images of:

File:Joel Skousen 2024.png

File:Andrea Denault.png

File:Richard Duncan.png

These images are all from youtube videos with creative commons licenses and are thus able to be put on this page. Microplastic Consumer (talk) 02:03, 24 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

https://x.com/liberalparty_/status/1827669768616222880?s=46 2600:1006:B1A6:C974:C974:F327:AFF2:ABC9 (talk) 18:21, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hasn’t been updated in ages 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:526:5B97:2A95:D8EA (talk) 18:47, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

August 28 is the day they review the petitions. Not sure why it’s so far after submission deadline Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 20:03, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

So he’ll be on the former, not the latter. PSL also lost in Pennsylvania albeit I’m not sure if they’ve fought it or not 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:526:5B97:2A95:D8EA (talk) 19:02, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Pennsylvania is still listed as 'pending' on the CW website TheBrodsterBoy (talk) 22:29, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

This article doesn't take into account write-in and qualified write-in states when determining if someone has majority access. I think that should change. Upon gaining access in Michigan, Cornel West now has access to 271 electoral votes. He would be only the 4th minor candidate to have majority access in this race which should be recognized. Thecommander236 (talk) 21:52, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think I just beat you to this by like 15 minutes lol Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 21:58, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Including write-ins would make the distinction useless, as in most cases it takes very little effort to file as a write-in candidate compared to petition drives. Over 130 candidates for president filed write-in candidacies in 2020. LV ^{✉ ✎} 21:59, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Still, getting write in access in 270 is actually pretty rare and hard. Even the Constitution Party looks like they might fall short this time, let alone all the other minors like Fruit.

It definitely puts West and Cruz above the likes of Novoselic or Peter TheBrodsterBoy (talk) 22:28, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, but only 64 candidates ended up having their write-in votes recorded. 36 of them were only listed as getting write-in votes in one state. With Automatic write-in states this year, you can only get access to 70 electoral votes. In 2020, only 3 parties got to 270+ with write-in states: the Green Party, the Party of Socialism and Liberation, and the American Solidarity Party.

So far, at most, it looks like only 4 candidates, de la Cruz, Oliver, Stein, and West, will get majority access even if you count the write-in states unless there's a huge sea change. Thecommander236 (talk) 23:13, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The pre-election tiers should be constructed with a goal of coming close to what might be post-election results. This has been the strategy in previous presidential elections and should continue now. Appropriate tiers might be:

• those with majority EV access by ballot access alone
• those with majority EV access by ballot access and write-in eligibility
• those who have at least one state of ballot access

All three tiers seem to be appropriate to me and approximate the tiers in the 2020 summary table. Dhalsim2 (talk) 00:11, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Also let’s be real, every year due to better data and more interest these articles about third parties get better and more detailed, so some tweaks aren’t an issue. They all look pretty different 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:8D22:420:F8D7:A497 (talk) 16:57, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

It’s not on their website unlike the other notable guys.

(Also, the website listings have their own legends and I don’t always follow the translations. West has a pending category on his, some of which we labeled Green, some Blue, and some white and black. What’s up with that? Does Pending mean he’s still fighting the Pennsylvania lawsuit?) 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:8D22:420:F8D7:A497 (talk) 16:59, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

We mostly get it from https://ballot-access.org/ because they examine every article that comes out on the election. We also check individual state websites to see if they have a list of candidates that have qualified.

Parties and candidates tend to exaggerate how many states they have qualified in so that's why we cross reference their ballot access maps with the news and state maps. Of course, that doesn't take into account court challenges to someone's petition or qualified status. Checking every court filing coming out can be a pain and there's not always an news article about the challenge.

Plus the media (and this website) isn't exactly unbiased either. It's a mess no matter how you go about it. Thecommander236 (talk) 17:30, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

If you click on the list of states in each category, each should have a source tied to it so you can see where the info is from. Crazysportsdude1 (talk) 19:31, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

She has write-in status in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Texas and Florida. I don't know if we put people who have write-in status in states though, but I think we should put anybody with over 100 electoral votes from registered write-ins on the page. Lukt64 (talk) 19:46, 26 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]