Prognostic factors of Rapid symptoms progression in patients with newly diagnosed parkinson’s disease

Tracking symptoms progression in the early stages of Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a laborious endeavor as the disease can be expressed with vastly different phenotypes, forcing clinicians to follow a multi-parametric approach in patient evaluation, looking for not only motor symptomatology but also non-motor complications, including cognitive decline, sleep problems and mood disturbances. Being neurodegenerative in nature, PD is expected to inflict a continuous degradation in patients’ condition over time. The rate of symptoms progression, however, is found to be even more chaotic than the vastly different phenotypes that can be expressed in the initial stages of PD. In this work, an analysis of baseline PD characteristics is performed using machine learning techniques, to identify prognostic factors for early rapid progression of PD symptoms. Using open data from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study, an extensive set of baseline patient evaluation outcomes is examined to isolate determinants of rapid progression within the first two and four years of PD. The rate of symptoms progression is estimated by tracking the change of the Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS‐UPDRS) total score over the corresponding follow-up period. Patients are ranked according to their progression rates and those who expressed the highest rates of MDS-UPDRS total score increase per year of follow-up period are assigned into the rapid progression class, using 5- and 10-quantiles partition. Classification performance against the rapid progression class was evaluated in a per quantile partition analysis scheme and in quantile-independent approach, respectively. The results shown a more accurate patient discrimination with quantile partitioning, however, a much more compact subset of baseline factors is extracted in the latter, making a more suitable for actual interventions in practice. Classification accuracy improved in all cases when using the longer 4-year follow-up period to estimate PD progression, suggesting that a prolonged patient evaluation can provide better outcomes in identifying rapid progression phenotype. Non-motor symptoms are found to be the main determinants of rapid symptoms progression in both follow-up periods, with autonomic dysfunction, mood impairment, anxiety, REM sleep behavior disorders, cognitive decline and memory impairment being alarming signs at baseline evaluation, along with rigidity symptoms, certain laboratory blood test results and genetic mutations.