Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.5555/3320516.3320583acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageswscConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

Inferential statistics and simulation generated samples: a critical reflection

Published: 09 December 2018 Publication History

Abstract

A review of recently published papers demonstrates: simulation practitioners apply the standard methods of inferential and descriptive statistics for their reasoning with simulation generated samples without much critical reflection. Yet, simulation-generated samples differ in important aspects from empirical samples, for which the standard statistical methods have been developed. Simulation models do have inherent epistemic and computational limits for replication that do not exist with empirical data sets. Consequently, neither is simulation-based data generation the same as the collection of empirical data nor is the analysis of synthetic data equally beneficial as of empirical data. These differences are much more fundamental for computer simulation than the problems of specific techniques of inferential statistics which have been criticized recently. If simulation generated data is used for testing research hypotheses the core issue is not the method of statistical reasoning but the assurance of what might be called evidential content.

References

[1]
Arnold, E., and J. Kästner. 2013. "When can a Computer Simulation act as Substitute for an Experiment?". Preprint series, Stuttgart Research.
[2]
Bae, J. W., J. H. Kim, I.-C. Moon, and T. G. Kim. 2016. "Accelerated Simulation of Hierarchical Military Operations with Tabulation Technique". Journal of Simulation 10(1):36--49.
[3]
Bedoya-Valencia, L., and E. Kirac. 2016. "Evaluating Alternative Resource Allocation in an Emergency Department using Discrete Event Simulation". Simulation 92(12):1041--1051.
[4]
Bova, M. J., F. W. Ciarallo, and R. R. Hill. 2016. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for the Secondary Threat Resulting from a Ballistic Impact Event". Journal of Simulation 10(1):24--35.
[5]
Calle, M., P. L. Gonzlez-R, J. M. Leon, H. Pierreval, and D. Canca. 2016. "Integrated Management of Inventory and Production Systems Based on Floating Decoupling Point and Real-Time Information: A Simulation Based Analysis". International Journal of Production Economics 181:48--57.
[6]
Chen, X., J.-h. Li, and Q. Gao. 2015. "A Simple Process Simulation Model for Strategic Planning on the Airside of an Airport: a Case Study". Journal of Simulation 9(1):64--72.
[7]
Conrads, A., M. Scheffer, H. Mattern, M. König, and M. Thewes. 2017. "Assessing Maintenance Strategies for Cutting Tool Replacements in Mechanized Tunneling using Process Simulation". Journal of Simulation 11(1):51--61.
[8]
Cook, M. 2004. "Universality in Elementary Cellular Automata". Complex Systems 15:140.
[9]
Dung, L. T., T. D. Hieu, and S.-G. Choi. 2016. "Simulation Modeling and Analysis of the Hop Count Distribution in Cognitive Radio Ad-Hoc Networks with Shadow Fading". Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 69:43--54.
[10]
Grafarend, E. W. 2006. Linear and Nonlinear Models: Fixed Effects, Random Effects, and Mixed Models. Berlin: Walter de Gruyter.
[11]
Haramoto, H. 2009. "Automation of Statistical Tests on Randomness to Obtain Clearer Conclusion". In Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2008, edited by P. L' Ecuyer and A. B. Owen, 411--421. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
[12]
Hellekalek, P. 1998. "Good Random Number Generators are (not so) Easy to Find". Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 46:485--505.
[13]
Henchey, M. J., R. Batta, A. Blatt, M. Flanigan, and K. Majka. 2014, May. "A Simulation Approach to Study Emergency Response". Journal of Simulation 8(2):115--128.
[14]
Hoaglin, D. C., F. Mosteller, and J. W. Tukey. 2000. Understanding Robust and Exploratory Data Analysis. New York: Wiley.
[15]
Hofmann, M. 2013. "Simulation-Based Exploratory Data Generation and Analysis (Data Farming): a Critical Reflection on its Validity and Methodology". The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology 10(4):381--393.
[16]
Hofmann, M. 2015a. "Reasoning beyond Predictive Validity: The Role of Plausibility in Decision-Supporting Social Simulation". In Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by M. D. Rossetti et al. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
[17]
Hofmann, M. 2015b. "Searching for Effects in Big Data: Why p-Values are not advised and what to use instead". In Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by L. Yilmaz et al. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
[18]
Hofmann, M., and S. Meyer-Nieberg. 2018. "Time to Dispense with the p-Value in OR?". Central European Journal of Operations Research 26(1):193--214.
[19]
Horne, G. E., and T. E. Meyer. 2005. "Data Farming: Discovering Surprise". In Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by J. A. Joines et al. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
[20]
Imputato, P., and S. Avallone. 2018. "An Analysis of the Impact of Network Device Buffers on Packet Schedulers through Experiments and Simulations". Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 80:1--18.
[21]
Kim, T. H., C. H. Kim, S. D. Shin, and S. Haam. 2016. "Influence of Personal Protective Equipment on the Performance of Life-Saving Interventions by Emergency Medical Service Personnel". Simulation 92(10):893--898.
[22]
Law, A. M. 2014. Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). New York: Mcgraw-Hill, Inc.
[23]
L'Ecuyer, P. 2015. "Random Number Generators with Multiple Streams for Sequential and Parallel Computing". In Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by M. D. Rossetti et al. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
[24]
Lee, S., D. Min, J.-H. Ryu, and Y. Yih. 2013. "A Simulation Study of Appointment Scheduling in Outpatient Clinics: Open Access and Overbooking". Simulation 89(12):1459--1473.
[25]
Rahimikelarijani, B., A. Abedi, M. Hamidi, and J. Cho. 2018. "Simulation Modeling of Houston Ship Channel Vessel Traffic for Optimal Closure Scheduling". Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 80:89--103.
[26]
Romano, S., and H. ElAarag. 2012. "A Quantitative Study of Web Cache Replacement Strategies using Simulation". Simulation 88(5):507--541.
[27]
Rosenthal, R., and R. L. Rosnow. 1991. Essentials of Behavioral Research: Methods and Data Analysis (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
[28]
Rukhin, A., J. Soto, J. Nechvatal, M. Smid, E. Barker, S. Leigh, M. Levenson, M. Vangel, D. Banks, A. Heckert, J. Dray, and S. Vo. 2010. A Statistical Test Suite for Random and Pseudorandom Number Generators for Cryptographic Applications. Number 800-22 in NIST Special Publication. National Institute of Standards and Technology.
[29]
Sedlmeier, P. 1996. "Jenseits des Signifikanztest-Rituals: Ergaenzungen und Alternativen". Methods of Psychological Research Online 1(4):41--63.
[30]
Soto, J. 1999. "Statistical Testing of Random Number Generators". In Proc. of the 22nd National Information Systems Security Conference, 1--12. NIST.
[31]
Troitzsch, K. 2014. "Analysing Simulation Results Statistically: Does Significance Matter?". In Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling, edited by H. Coelho et al., 88--105. PA, USA: Hershey.
[32]
Tukey, J. W. 1977. Exploratory Data Analysis. Reading, Mass.
[33]
Vile, J. L., E. Allkins, J. Frankish, S. Garland, P. Mizen, and J. E. Williams. 2017. "Modelling Patient Flow in an Emergency Department to better understand Demand Management Strategies". Journal of Simulation 11(2):115--127.
[34]
White, J., A. Rassweiler, J. Samhouri, A. Stier, and C. White. 2014. "Ecologists should not use Statistical Significance Tests to interpret Simulation Model Results". Oikos 123:385--388.
[35]
Wolfram, S. 2002. A New Kind of Science. Champaign, Ilinois, US, United States: Wolfram Media.
[36]
Yates, J., A. Ford, and J. Kuglics. 2014. "Identifying Key Parameters and Trends in Civil Violence: a Sub-Regional, Agent-Based Simulation Approach using GIS". Journal of Simulation 8(3):179--194.
  1. Inferential statistics and simulation generated samples: a critical reflection

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Conferences
    WSC '18: Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference
    December 2018
    4298 pages
    ISBN:978153866570

    Sponsors

    Publisher

    IEEE Press

    Publication History

    Published: 09 December 2018

    Check for updates

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article

    Conference

    WSC '18
    Sponsor:
    WSC '18: Winter Simulation Conference
    December 9 - 12, 2018
    Gothenburg, Sweden

    Acceptance Rates

    WSC '18 Paper Acceptance Rate 183 of 260 submissions, 70%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • 0
      Total Citations
    • 68
      Total Downloads
    • Downloads (Last 12 months)3
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
    Reflects downloads up to 24 Nov 2024

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media