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A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products

Authors:

John A. Norton,

Frank M. BassAuthors Info & Claims

Management Science, Volume 33, Issue 9

Pages 1069 - 1086

Published: 01 September 1987 Publication History

Abstract

This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci.15January 215-227. diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

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Lin YWang MZhang HZhang RShen Z(2024)Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion EffectManufacturing & Service Operations Management10.1287/msom.2022.017226:3(1062-1081)Online publication date: 1-May-2024
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/msom.2022.0172
Kash IKey PZoumpoulis S(2023)Optimal Pricing and Introduction Timing of Technology Upgrades in Subscription-Based ServicesOperations Research10.1287/opre.2022.236471:2(665-687)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/opre.2022.2364
Zhang MAhn HUichanco J(2022)Data-Driven Pricing for a New ProductOperations Research10.1287/opre.2021.220470:2(847-866)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2022
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/opre.2021.2204
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Index Terms

A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products
1. Applied computing
  1. Enterprise computing
  2. Operations research
    1. Marketing
2. Mathematics of computing
  1. Mathematical analysis
    1. Numerical analysis

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Published In

Management Science Volume 33, Issue 9

September 1987

136 pages

ISSN:0025-1909

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Publisher

INFORMS

Linthicum, MD, United States

Publication History

Published: 01 September 1987

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Lin YWang MZhang HZhang RShen Z(2024)Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion EffectManufacturing & Service Operations Management10.1287/msom.2022.017226:3(1062-1081)Online publication date: 1-May-2024
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/msom.2022.0172
Kash IKey PZoumpoulis S(2023)Optimal Pricing and Introduction Timing of Technology Upgrades in Subscription-Based ServicesOperations Research10.1287/opre.2022.236471:2(665-687)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/opre.2022.2364
Zhang MAhn HUichanco J(2022)Data-Driven Pricing for a New ProductOperations Research10.1287/opre.2021.220470:2(847-866)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2022
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1287/opre.2021.2204
Leca CKempf KUzsoy R(2021)An optimization framework for managing product transitions in semiconductor manufacturingProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3522802.3522920(1-12)Online publication date: 13-Dec-2021
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3522802.3522920
Nadar EKaya BGüler K(2021)New-Product Diffusion in Closed-Loop Supply ChainsManufacturing & Service Operations Management10.1287/msom.2019.086423:6(1413-1430)Online publication date: 1-Nov-2021
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Panwar SKapur PSingh O(2021)Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysisInformation Technology and Management10.1007/s10799-021-00323-x22:1(33-51)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2021
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Li H(2020)Optimal Pricing Under Diffusion-Choice ModelsOperations Research10.1287/opre.2019.194768:1(115-133)Online publication date: 6-Jan-2020
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Gold IEhm HPonsignon TAfridi MSon YHaas P(2019)Applying diffusion models to semiconductor supply chainsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3400397.3400591(2384-2395)Online publication date: 8-Dec-2019
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3400397.3400591
Epstein RDexter FSchwenk E(2019)Provider Access to Legacy Electronic Anesthesia Records Following Implementation of an Electronic Health Record SystemJournal of Medical Systems10.1007/s10916-019-1232-643:5(1-8)Online publication date: 1-May-2019
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Durable Products, Time Inconsistency, and Lock-in

Thirty Years of Conjoint Analysis: Reflections and Prospects

Forecasting with a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model

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