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P-MARL: Prediction-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Non-Stationary Environments

Published: 04 May 2015 Publication History

Abstract

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is a widely-used technique for optimization in decentralised control problems, addressing complex challenges when several agents change actions simultaneously and without collaboration. Such challenges are exacerbated when the environment in which the agents learn is inherently non-stationary, as agents' actions are then non-deterministic.
In this paper, we show that advance knowledge of environment behaviour through prediction significantly improves agents' performance in converging to near-optimal control solutions. We propose P-MARL, a MARL approach which employs a prediction mechanism to obtain such advance knowledge, which is then used to improve agents' learning. The underlying non-stationary behaviour of the environment is modelled as a time-series and prediction is based on historic data and key environment variables. This provides information regarding potential upcoming changes in the environment, which is a key influencer in agents' decision-making.
We evaluate P-MARL in a smart grid scenario and show that a 92% Pareto efficient solution can be achieved in an electric vehicle charging problem, where energy demand across a community of households is inherently non-stationary. Finally, we analyse the effects of environment prediction accuracy on the performance of our approach.

References

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L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. De Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, IEEE Transactions on, 38(2):156--172, 2008.
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B. C. Da Silva, E. W. Basso, A. L. Bazzan, and P. M. Engel. Dealing with non-stationary environments using context detection. In ICML, pages 217--224. ACM, 2006.
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K. Doya, K. Samejima, K.-i. Katagiri, and M. Kawato. Multiple model-based reinforcement learning. Neural computation, 14(6):1347--1369, 2002.
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M. Humphrys. W-learning: Competition among selfish q-learners. Computer Laboratory Technical Report, 362, 1995.
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A. Marinescu, I. Dusparic, C. Harris, V. Cahill, and S. Clarke. A dynamic forecasting method for small scale residential electrical demand. In IJCNN, pages 3767--3774, July 2014.
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A. Marinescu, C. Harris, I. Dusparic, V. Cahill, and S. Clarke. A hybrid approach to very small scale electrical demand forecasting. In ISGT, 2014 IEEE PES, pages 1--5, Feb 2014.

Cited By

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  • (2017)An exploration strategy for non-stationary opponentsAutonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems10.1007/s10458-016-9347-331:5(971-1002)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2017

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  1. P-MARL: Prediction-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Non-Stationary Environments

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    Information & Contributors

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    Published In

    cover image ACM Other conferences
    AAMAS '15: Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems
    May 2015
    2072 pages
    ISBN:9781450334136

    Sponsors

    • IFAAMAS

    In-Cooperation

    Publisher

    International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems

    Richland, SC

    Publication History

    Published: 04 May 2015

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    Author Tags

    1. environment prediction
    2. multi-agent systems
    3. reinforcement learning
    4. smart grids

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    • Demonstration

    Funding Sources

    • Science Foundation Ireland to Lero - the Irish Software Engineering Research Centre

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    AAMAS'15
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    AAMAS '15 Paper Acceptance Rate 108 of 670 submissions, 16%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 1,155 of 5,036 submissions, 23%

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    • (2017)An exploration strategy for non-stationary opponentsAutonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems10.1007/s10458-016-9347-331:5(971-1002)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2017

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