Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.5555/2429759.2429822acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageswscConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

Ranking and selection meets robust optimization

Published: 09 December 2012 Publication History

Abstract

The objective of ranking and selection is to efficiently allocate an information budget among a set of design alternatives with unknown values in order to maximize the decision-maker's chances of discovering the best alternative. The field of robust optimization, however, considers risk-averse decision makers who may accept a suboptimal alternative in order to minimize the risk of a worst-case outcome. We bring these two fields together by defining a Bayesian ranking and selection problem with a robust implementation decision. We propose a new simulation allocation procedure that is risk-neutral with respect to simulation outcomes, but risk-averse with respect to the implementation decision. We discuss the properties of the procedure and present numerical examples illustrating the difference between the risk-averse problem and the more typical risk-neutral problem from the literature.

References

[1]
Bechhofer, R. E., T. J. Santner, and D. M. Goldsman. 1995. Design and Analysis of Experiments for Statistical Selection, Screening and Multiple Comparisons. New York: J. Wiley & Sons.
[2]
Ben-Tal, A., L. El Ghaoui, and A. Nemirovski. 2009. Robust Optimization. Princeton University Press.
[3]
Ben-Tal, A., and A. Nemirovski. 2002. "Robust optimization--methodology and applications". Mathematical Programming 92 (3): 453--480.
[4]
Bertsimas, D., D. B. Brown, and C. Caramanis. 2007. "Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization". SIAM Review 53 (3): 464--501.
[5]
Branke, J., S. Chick, and C. Schmidt. 2007. "Selecting a Selection Procedure". Management Science 53 (12): 1916--1932.
[6]
Chick, S. E. 2006. "Subjective Probability and Bayesian Methodology". In Handbooks of Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 13: Simulation, edited by S. Henderson and B. Nelson, 225--258. North-Holland Publishing, Amsterdam.
[7]
Chick, S. E., J. Branke, and C. Schmidt. 2010. "Sequential Sampling to Myopically Maximize the Expected Value of Information". INFORMS Journal on Computing 22 (1): 71--80.
[8]
Chick, S. E., and P. I. Frazier. 2009, December. "The Conjunction Of The Knowledge Gradient And The Economic Approach To Simulation Selection". In Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by M. D. Rossetti, R. R. Hill, B. Johansson, A. Dunkin, and R. G. Ingalls, 528--539. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
[9]
Chick, S. E., and N. Gans. 2009. "Economic analysis of simulation selection problems". Management Science 55 (3): 421--437.
[10]
Clark, C. E. 1961. "The greatest of a finite set of random variables". Operations Research 9 (2): 145--162.
[11]
Defourny, B., I. O. Ryzhov, and W. B. Powell. 2012. "The robust approach to simulation selection". Working paper, Princeton University.
[12]
DeGroot, M. H. 1970. Optimal Statistical Decisions. John Wiley and Sons.
[13]
Frazier, P. I., W. B. Powell, and S. Dayanik. 2008. "A knowledge gradient policy for sequential information collection". SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 47 (5): 2410--2439.
[14]
Gupta, S., and K. Miescke. 1994. "Bayesian look ahead one stage sampling allocations for selecting the largest normal mean". Statistical Papers 35: 169--177.
[15]
Gupta, S., and K. Miescke. 1996. "Bayesian look ahead one-stage sampling allocations for selection of the best population". Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 54 (2): 229--244.
[16]
Hong, L. J., and B. L. Nelson. 2009, December. "A Brief Introduction To Optimization Via Simulation". In Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by M. D. Rossetti, R. R. Hill, B. Johansson, A. Dunkin, and R. G. Ingalls, 75--85. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
[17]
Kim, S.-H., and B. L. Nelson. 2001. "A fully sequential procedure for indifference-zone selection in simulation". ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation 11 (3): 251--273.
[18]
Kim, S.-H., and B. L. Nelson. 2006. "Selecting the best system". In Handbooks of Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 13: Simulation, edited by S. G. Henderson and B. L. Nelson, 501--534. North-Holland Publishing, Amsterdam.
[19]
Powell, W. B., and I. O. Ryzhov. 2012. Optimal Learning. John Wiley and Sons.
[20]
Waeber, R., P. I. Frazier, and S. G. Henderson. 2010, December. "Performance Measures for Ranking and Selection Procedures". In Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference, edited by B. Johansson, S. Jain, J. Montoya-Torres, J. Hugan, and E. Yücesan, 1235--1245. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
[21]
Wang, H., and S.-H. Kim. 2011. "On the Conservativeness of Fully Sequential Indifference-Zone Procedures". Submitted for publication.

Cited By

View all

Recommendations

Comments

Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
WSC '12: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
December 2012
4271 pages

Sponsors

Publisher

Winter Simulation Conference

Publication History

Published: 09 December 2012

Check for updates

Qualifiers

  • Research-article

Conference

WSC '12
Sponsor:
WSC '12: Winter Simulation Conference
December 9 - 12, 2012
Berlin, Germany

Acceptance Rates

WSC '12 Paper Acceptance Rate 189 of 384 submissions, 49%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)0
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
Reflects downloads up to 18 Feb 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media