Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.5555/1959726.1959729guideproceedingsArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesConference Proceedingsacm-pubtype
Article

Climate change in the XXIst century: mechanisms and predictions

Published: 23 February 2011 Publication History

Abstract

Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Antropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures.

References

[1]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, report, 996 pp., Cambridge University Press, New York City, 2007.
[2]
R. Lindzen, Y.-S. Choi, Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, 2009, pp. L16705.
[3]
R. W. Spencer, 2008. Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change, http://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/satellite-and-climate-model-evidence/. Journal of Climate, submitted.
[4]
N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, A. Kaplan, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 108, No. D14, 2003, p. 4407. Hadley Centre SST data set HadISST1. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadisst/data/ download.html
[5]
Wikipedia, Fossil Fuel. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel
[6]
SIDC-team, World Data Center for the Sunspot Index, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Monthly Report on the International Sunspot Number, online catalogue of the sunspot index: http://www.sidc.be/sunspot-data/, yrs 1700-2009.
[7]
J. Lean, J. Beer, R. Bradley, Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: implications for climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 23: 1995, pp. 3195-3198.
[8]
J. Lean, Solar Irradiance Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Data Contribution Series # 2004-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA, 2004. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/ climate_forcing/solar_variability/ lean2000_irradiance.txt
[9]
E. Friis-Christensen, K. Lassen, Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, 254, 1991, pp. 698-700.
[10]
D. V. Hoyt, K. H. Schatten, A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 1993, pp. 18895-18906.
[11]
S. K. Solanki, M. Fligge, Solar Irradiance Since 1874 Revisited, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 25, no. 3, 1998, pp. 341-344.
[12]
H. Svensmark, Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 5027-5030 (1998).
[13]
H. Svensmark, J. O. P. Pedersen, N. D. Marsh, M. B. Enghoff, U. I. Uggerhøj, Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proc. R. Soc. A 463, 2007, pp. 385-396.
[14]
H. Svensmark, Cosmic Rays And Earth's Climate, Space Science Reviews 93: 155-166, 2000.
[15]
R. T. Pinker, B. Zhang, E. G. Dutton, Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface Solar Radiation? Science, Vol. 308. no. 5723, 2005, pp. 850-854.
[16]
H. Abdussamatov, 2008, The Sun defines the Climate, http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/ abduss_nkj_2009.pdf, http://www.gao.spb.ru/ english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
[17]
Kh. I. Abdusamatov, Optimal Prediction of the Peak of the Next 11-Year Activity Cycle and of the Peaks of Several Succeeding Cycles on the Basis of Long-Term Variations in the Solar Radius or Solar Constant, Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies, Vol. 23, No. 3, 2007, pp. 97- 100.
[18]
E. P. Borisenko, V. M. Pasetskii, Climate variations during the last millennium, Moscow, Mysl, 1988. http://www.pereplet.ru/gorm/dating/ climat.htm
  1. Climate change in the XXIst century: mechanisms and predictions

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image Guide Proceedings
    EE'11: Proceedings of the 6th IASME/WSEAS international conference on Energy & environment
    February 2011
    390 pages
    ISBN:9789604742745

    Publisher

    World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society (WSEAS)

    Stevens Point, Wisconsin, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 23 February 2011

    Author Tags

    1. IPCC climate models
    2. climate change
    3. galactic cosmic rays
    4. global warming
    5. little ice age
    6. solar cycles
    7. total solar irradiance

    Qualifiers

    • Article

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • 0
      Total Citations
    • 0
      Total Downloads
    • Downloads (Last 12 months)0
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
    Reflects downloads up to 25 Nov 2024

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    View Options

    View options

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media