SIMULATION MODELING OF INTERPLANETARY SHOCKS ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION ON HISTORICAL DATA SET

Authors

  • Volodymyr Turchenko
  • Viktor Demchuk
  • Anatoly Sachenko

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47839/ijc.5.3.418

Keywords:

Space weather, solar wind, ACE spacecraft, predicting interplanetary shocks, neural networks

Abstract

An approach to prediction of the arrival time of interplanetary shocks using neural networks based on the data gathered from single EPAM (Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor) channel of NASA’s ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft is proposed in this paper. A short description of ACE spacecraft and the data, published online on the appropriate web-site, are considered. A data choice to fulfill a prediction of interplanetary shocks is proven and structure of neural network is described. The results of simulation modeling in MATLAB are considered in the end of the paper.

References

http://www-spc.igpp.ucla.edu/~newbury/papers/sw_electrons/node9.html

A. Joselyn, J. Anderson, H. Coffey et al.., Solar Cycle 23 Project: Summary of Panel Findings, Short Reference Paper, Nov. 1996.

Solar Storms: The Silent Menace, by Dr. Sten Odenwald, 1998. http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/workbook/storms.html

R. A. Calvo, H. A. Ceccatto and R. D. Piacentini. Neural network prediction of solar activity, Astrophysical Journal, Part 1, 444 (2), 1995, pp. 916-921

A. Dmitriev, Yu. Minaeva, Yu. Orlov, M. Riazantseva, I. Veselovsky. Solar Activity Forecasting on 1999-2000 by Means of Artificial Neural Networks, Reported on EGS XXIV General Assembly, The Hague, The Netherlands 22 April 1999.

Z. Voros and D. Jankovicova. Neural network prediction of geomagnetic activity: a method using local Holder exponents, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 9, 2002, pp. 425–433.

J. Vandegriff, K. Wagstaff, G. Ho, J. Plauger. Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks, Advances in Space Research 36, 2005, pp. 2323–2327.

http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/epam_l2desc.html

http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/lvl2DATA_EPAM.html

http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html

K. Hornik, M. Stinchcombe, H. White. Multilayer Feedforward Networks are Universal Approximators, Neural Networks 2, 1989, pp. 359-366.

V. Golovko. Neural Networks: training, models and applications. Radiotechnika. Moscow, 2001. pp. 256 (in Russian).

M.T. Hagan, M. Menhaj. Training feed-forward networks with the Marquardt algorithm, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 5 (6), 1994, pp. 989–993.

http://www.mathworks.com/

G. Box, G. Jenkins. Time Series analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. San Francisco, 1976.

Downloads

Published

2014-08-01

How to Cite

Turchenko, V., Demchuk, V., & Sachenko, A. (2014). SIMULATION MODELING OF INTERPLANETARY SHOCKS ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION ON HISTORICAL DATA SET. International Journal of Computing, 5(3), 135-140. https://doi.org/10.47839/ijc.5.3.418

Issue

Section

Articles