Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Ecological Forecasting—21st Century Science for 21st Century Management

Open-File Report 2020-1073

By: John B. Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zack Bowen, Sky Bristol, Daren Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, and Mark T. Wiltermuth

https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201073

Abstract

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS.

Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.

Suggested Citation

Bradford, J.B., Weltzin, J.F., McCormick, M., Baron, J., Bowen, Z., Bristol, S., Carlisle, D., Crimmins, T., Cross, P., DeVivo, J., Dietze, M., Freeman, M., Goldberg, J., Hooten, M., Hsu, L., Jenni, K., Keisman, J., Kennen, J., Lee, K., Lesmes, D., Loftin, K., Miller, B.W., Murdoch, P., Newman, J., Prentice, K.L., Rangwala, I., Read, J., Sieracki, J., Sofaer, H., Thur, S., Toevs, G., Werner, F., White, C.L., White, T., and Wiltermuth, M., 2020, Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1073, 54 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201073.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Abstract
Background and Motivation for the Workshop
Workshop Goals and Structure
Workshop Results
Implications for USGS Research and Operations
Conclusions
References Cited
Appendix 1. Workshop Agenda
Appendix 2. Standardized Rubric for Describing a Forecast Product
Appendix 3. Descriptions of the Most Promising Forecast Products Considered at the Workshop
Appendix 4. Brainstorming of Forecast Products Discussed
Appendix 5. Ratings of Specific Potential Forecast Products by Topic

Additional publication details
Publication type	Report
Publication Subtype	USGS Numbered Series
Title	Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Series title	Open-File Report
Series number	2020-1073
DOI	10.3133/ofr20201073
Year Published	2020
Language	English
Publisher	U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location	Reston, VA
Contributing office(s)	Core Science Analytics and Synthesis, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland Water Science Center, Minnesota Water Science Center, National Phenology Network, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Pacific Islands Ecosys Research Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Description	vii, 54 p.
Online Only (Y/N)	Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N)	N
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page

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Abstract

Suggested Citation

Table of Contents