An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Fig 6
Expert linear pool forecast skill.
The forecast skill percentile of linear pool predictions compared to individual expert predictions across all 13 surveys (vertical axis) differentiated by the type of target. A linear pool of expert judgment often scores in the top 50th percentile independent of the type of question (B.) The mean, median, 25th, and 75th percentile for forecast skill percentile for all individual experts who completed 10 or more surveys (blue) and for the linear pool (red). Compared to individual experts, a linear pool has the highest mean and highest 25th percentile forecast skill percentile. (C.) The median forecast skill percentile across surveys for experts (blue) and the linear pool (red). Over time the linear pool median forecast skill percentile is above 0.50 for all but one survey and for five surveys the linear pool generated the most accurate predictions.