Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.1145/3604237.3626848acmotherconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesicaifConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

E2EAI: End-to-End Deep Learning Framework for Active Investing

Published: 25 November 2023 Publication History

Abstract

Active investing aims to construct a portfolio of assets that are expected to be relatively profitable in the markets. A popular strategy involves the use of factor-based methods. Recently, efforts have increased to apply deep learning to identify “deep factors” that could provide more active returns or promising pipelines for asset trend prediction. However, the question of constructing an active investment portfolio via an end-to-end deep learning framework (E2E) remains largely unexplored in existing research. In this paper, we are the first to propose an E2E approach that encompasses nearly the entire process of factor investing, including factor selection, combination, stock selection, and portfolio construction. A key challenge we address is the potential divergence in the directions of deep factors across different horizon lengths, which can create conflicts in the learning process of our multi-task learning model, E2EAI. To overcome this, we design a directional recovery algorithm that ensures consistent learning across tasks. Extensive experiments on real stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of our end-to-end deep learning framework in active investing. Our approach not only enhances the potential returns of active investment strategies but also provides a comprehensive solution for managing multi-task learning conflicts in the context of deep learning-based factor investing.

References

[1]
Peter Akioyamen, Yi Zhou Tang, and Hussien Hussien. 2020. A hybrid learning approach to detecting regime switches in financial markets. In Proceedings of the First ACM International Conference on AI in Finance. 1–7.
[2]
Sebastian Bach, Alexander Binder, Grégoire Montavon, Frederick Klauschen, Klaus-Robert Müller, and Wojciech Samek. 2015. On pixel-wise explanations for non-linear classifier decisions by layer-wise relevance propagation. PloS one 10, 7 (2015), e0130140.
[3]
Chi Chen, Li Zhao, Jiang Bian, Chunxiao Xing, and Tie-Yan Liu. 2019. Investment behaviors can tell what inside: Exploring stock intrinsic properties for stock trend prediction. In Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining. 2376–2384.
[4]
Qianggang Ding, Sifan Wu, Hao Sun, Jiadong Guo, and Jian Guo. 2020. Hierarchical Multi-Scale Gaussian Transformer for Stock Movement Prediction. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-20, Christian Bessiere (Ed.). International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 4640–4646. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2020/640 Special Track on AI in FinTech.
[5]
Yitong Duan, Lei Wang, Qizhong Zhang, and Jian Li. 2022. Factorvae: A probabilistic dynamic factor model based on variational autoencoder for predicting cross-sectional stock returns. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 36. 4468–4476.
[6]
Eugene F Fama and Kenneth R French. 2020. Comparing cross-section and time-series factor models. The Review of Financial Studies 33, 5 (2020), 1891–1926.
[7]
Sergey Ioffe and Christian Szegedy. 2015. Batch normalization: Accelerating deep network training by reducing internal covariate shift. In International conference on machine learning. pmlr, 448–456.
[8]
Weiwei Jiang. 2021. Applications of deep learning in stock market prediction: recent progress. Expert Systems with Applications 184 (2021), 115537.
[9]
Asriel Levin. 1995. Stock selection via nonlinear multi-factor models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 8 (1995).
[10]
Hengxu Lin, Dong Zhou, Weiqing Liu, and Jiang Bian. 2021. Deep risk model: a deep learning solution for mining latent risk factors to improve covariance matrix estimation. In Proceedings of the Second ACM International Conference on AI in Finance. 1–8.
[11]
Hengxu Lin, Dong Zhou, Weiqing Liu, and Jiang Bian. 2021. Learning multiple stock trading patterns with temporal routing adaptor and optimal transport. In Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining. 1017–1026.
[12]
Carlo Mari and Emiliano Mari. 2022. Deep learning based regime-switching models of energy commodity prices. Energy Systems (2022), 1–22.
[13]
Daiki Matsunaga, Toyotaro Suzumura, and Toshihiro Takahashi. 2019. Exploring graph neural networks for stock market predictions with rolling window analysis. NeurIPS Workshops (2019).
[14]
Dimitris Melas. 2018. Best Practices in Factor Research and Factor Models. MSCI Research Insight (2018).
[15]
Grégoire Montavon, Alexander Binder, Sebastian Lapuschkin, Wojciech Samek, and Klaus-Robert Müller. 2019. Layer-wise relevance propagation: an overview. Explainable AI: interpreting, explaining and visualizing deep learning (2019), 193–209.
[16]
Kei Nakagawa, Tomoki Ito, Masaya Abe, and Kiyoshi Izumi. 2019. Deep recurrent factor model: interpretable non-linear and time-varying multi-factor model. arXiv:1901.11493 (2019).
[17]
Kei Nakagawa, Takumi Uchida, and Tomohisa Aoshima. 2018. Deep factor model. In ECML PKDD 2018 Workshops. Springer, 37–50.
[18]
Victor Ng, Robert F Engle, and Michael Rothschild. 1992. A multi-dynamic-factor model for stock returns. Journal of Econometrics 52, 1-2 (1992), 245–266.
[19]
A Sinem Uysal, Xiaoyue Li, and John M Mulvey. 2023. End-to-end risk budgeting portfolio optimization with neural networks. Annals of Operations Research (2023), 1–30.
[20]
A Sinem Uysal and John M Mulvey. 2021. A machine learning approach in regime-switching risk parity portfolios. The Journal of Financial Data Science (2021).
[21]
Ashish Vaswani, Noam Shazeer, Niki Parmar, Jakob Uszkoreit, Llion Jones, Aidan N Gomez, Łukasz Kaiser, and Illia Polosukhin. 2017. Attention is all you need. Advances in neural information processing systems 30 (2017).
[22]
Petar Veličković, Guillem Cucurull, Arantxa Casanova, Adriana Romero, Pietro Lio, and Yoshua Bengio. 2017. Graph attention networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1710.10903 (2017).
[23]
Heyuan Wang, Tengjiao Wang, Shun Li, Jiayi Zheng, Shijie Guan, and Wei Chen. 2022. Adaptive long-short pattern transformer for stock investment selection. In Proceedings of the Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-22. 3970–3977.
[24]
Jianian Wang, Sheng Zhang, Yanghua Xiao, and Rui Song. 2021. A review on graph neural network methods in financial applications. arXiv preprint arXiv:2111.15367 (2021).
[25]
Lewen Wang, Weiqing Liu, Xiao Yang, and Jiang Bian. 2019. Conservative or Aggressive? Confidence-Aware Dynamic Portfolio Construction. In 2019 IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing (GlobalSIP). IEEE, 1–5.
[26]
Zikai Wei, Bo Dai, and Dahua Lin. 2022. Factor investing with a deep multi-factor model. arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.12462 (2022).
[27]
Zikai Wei, Anyi Rao, Bo Dai, and Dahua Lin. 2023. HireVAE: An Online and Adaptive Factor Model Based on Hierarchical and Regime-Switch VAE. In Proceedings of the Thirty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-23, Edith Elkind (Ed.). International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 4903–4911. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2023/545 Main Track.
[28]
Wentao Xu, Weiqing Liu, Lewen Wang, Yingce Xia, Jiang Bian, Jian Yin, and Tie-Yan Liu. 2021. Hist: A graph-based framework for stock trend forecasting via mining concept-oriented shared information. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.13716 (2021).
[29]
Wentao Xu, Weiqing Liu, Chang Xu, Jiang Bian, Jian Yin, and Tie-Yan Liu. 2021. Rest: Relational event-driven stock trend forecasting. In Proceedings of the Web Conference 2021. 1–10.
[30]
Yumo Xu and Shay B Cohen. 2018. Stock movement prediction from tweets and historical prices. In Proceedings of the 56th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 1970–1979.
[31]
Liheng Zhang, Charu Aggarwal, and Guo-Jun Qi. 2017. Stock price prediction via discovering multi-frequency trading patterns. In Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. 2141–2149.

Index Terms

  1. E2EAI: End-to-End Deep Learning Framework for Active Investing
        Index terms have been assigned to the content through auto-classification.

        Recommendations

        Comments

        Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

        Information & Contributors

        Information

        Published In

        cover image ACM Other conferences
        ICAIF '23: Proceedings of the Fourth ACM International Conference on AI in Finance
        November 2023
        697 pages
        ISBN:9798400702402
        DOI:10.1145/3604237
        Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

        Publisher

        Association for Computing Machinery

        New York, NY, United States

        Publication History

        Published: 25 November 2023

        Permissions

        Request permissions for this article.

        Check for updates

        Author Tags

        1. deep learning
        2. financial data.
        3. quantitative investment

        Qualifiers

        • Research-article
        • Research
        • Refereed limited

        Conference

        ICAIF '23

        Contributors

        Other Metrics

        Bibliometrics & Citations

        Bibliometrics

        Article Metrics

        • 0
          Total Citations
        • 147
          Total Downloads
        • Downloads (Last 12 months)78
        • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)4
        Reflects downloads up to 14 Feb 2025

        Other Metrics

        Citations

        View Options

        Login options

        View options

        PDF

        View or Download as a PDF file.

        PDF

        eReader

        View online with eReader.

        eReader

        HTML Format

        View this article in HTML Format.

        HTML Format

        Figures

        Tables

        Media

        Share

        Share

        Share this Publication link

        Share on social media