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Determining Prosumer Energy Generation Performance as Basis for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading Decisions using Monte Carlo Simulation

Published: 04 November 2021 Publication History

Abstract

The increased penetration of renewable energy resources has become one of the driving forces with a rapid growth of the number of prosumers in the energy market. The aim of maximizing prosumer revenue and welfare has been one of the motivations due to a growing interest in the field of Transactive Energy (TE). This paper presents a novel method for determining and forecasting a prosumer's energy generation performance by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) with Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). With the implementation of GBM, the average generation of a prosumer is forecasted based on multiple timesteps to visualize multiple outcomes. In addition, the computation of potential payoffs/revenues to be received by the prosumers based on average energy generation and randomized prices has been carried out. Finally, the experimental results of this work provide beneficial insights into future decisions concerning the improvement of prosumer performance.

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Cited By

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  • (2023)A Generic Parametric Framework for Peer-to-Peer Electricity Market Design2023 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2023 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC / I&CPS Europe)10.1109/EEEIC/ICPSEurope57605.2023.10194773(1-6)Online publication date: 6-Jun-2023

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cover image ACM Other conferences
SMA 2020: The 9th International Conference on Smart Media and Applications
September 2020
491 pages
ISBN:9781450389259
DOI:10.1145/3426020
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 04 November 2021

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Author Tags

  1. Geometric Brownian Motion
  2. Monte Carlo Simulation
  3. Peer-to-Peer Energy Trade
  4. Transactive Energy

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  • (2023)A Generic Parametric Framework for Peer-to-Peer Electricity Market Design2023 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2023 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC / I&CPS Europe)10.1109/EEEIC/ICPSEurope57605.2023.10194773(1-6)Online publication date: 6-Jun-2023

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