Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.1145/3368756.3369067acmotherconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagessmartcityappConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

A new architecture based on ARIMA models for the safety classification of inter-city routes using meteorological metrics

Published: 02 October 2019 Publication History

Abstract

In Morocco, road accidents are very expensive, both human and material. According to official statistics, these accidents can cost 25 lives and more than 2,000 injuries a week [1].
These accidents are mainly due to different causes: human causes, condition of vehicles, road infrastructure and weather conditions. Weather causes can be: the presence of fog, the lack of visibility caused by a climatic phenomenon, snow and rain. A real-time weather information and forecast system will be important to minimize the risk of weather-related road accidents.
In this article, we propose a system of meteorological privatization and calculation of the degree of road safety on a route, based on meteorological data provided by the satellite Soda-Pro. System modeling and meteorological forecasting is done using the ARIMA method.
According to our results, the ARIMA models obtained are able to capture the dynamics of meteorological data and produce important forecasts.
The types of climate and the degree of safety of each road were classified from the estimated meteorological parameters to determine the safest route.

References

[1]
Recueil des statistiques de la circulation routière de 2017, Ministère de l'Equipement, du Transport, Royaume du Maroc de la Logistique et de l'Eau Direction des Routes.
[2]
La sécurité routière en France, Bilan d'accidentalité de l'année 2016, Observatoire national Interministériel de la sécurité routière.
[3]
Lamorski K., Pastuszka T., Krzyszczak J., Sławiński C., and Witkowska-Walczak B., 2013. Soil water dynamic modeling using the physical and support vector machine methods. Vadose Zone J., 12(4)
[4]
Baranowski P., Krzyszczak J., Sławiński C., Hoffmann H., Kozyra J., Nieróbca A., Siwek K., and Gluza A., 2015. Multifractal Analysis of Meteorological Time Series to Assess Climate Impacts. Climate Res., 65, 39--52.
[5]
Murat M., Malinowska I., Hoffmann H., and Baranowski P., 2016. Statistical modeling of agrometeorological time series by exponential smoothing. Int. Agrophys., 30(1), 57--66.
[6]
Hoffmann H., Baranowski P., Krzyszczak J., Zubik M., Sławiński C., Gaiser T., and Ewert F., 2017. Temporal properties of spatially aggregated meteorological time series. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 234, 247--257
[7]
Fronzek S., Pirttioja N., Carter T.R., Bindi M., Hoffmann H., Palosuo T., Ruiz-Ramos M., Tao F., Trnka M., Acutis et al.; 2018. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change. Agricultural Systems, 159, 209--224
[8]
Pirttioja N. et al.; 2015. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. Climate Research, 65, 87--105
[9]
Porter J.R. and Semenov M.A., 2005. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Trans. Royal Society B: Biological Sci., 360(1463), 2021--2035.
[10]
Ruiz-Ramos M. et al., 2018. Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment. Agricultural Systems, 159, 260--274
[11]
Hoffmann H., Baranowski P., Krzyszczak J., Zubik M., Sławiński C., Gaiser T., and Ewert F., 2017. Temporal properties of spatially aggregated meteorological time series. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 234, 247--257
[12]
Krzyszczak J., Baranowski P., Zubik M., and Hoffmann H., 2017b. Temporal scale influence on multifractal properties of agro-meteorological time series. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 239, 223--235.
[13]
Walczak R.T., Witkowska-Walczak B., and Baranowski P., 1997. Soil structure parameters in models of crop growth and yield prediction. Physical submodels. Int. Agrophysics, 11, 111--127.
[14]
Lobell B.D., Sibley A., and Ortiz-Monasterio J.I., 2012. Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change, 2, 186--189.
[15]
Semenov M.A. and Shewry P.R., 2011. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports, 1, 66.
[16]
Sillmann J. and Roeckner E., 2008. Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Climate Change, 86, 83--104.
[17]
Lobell D.B., Hammer G.L., Mclean G., Messina C., Roberts M.J., and Schlenker W., 2013. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nature Climate Change, 3, 497--501.
[18]
El-Mallah E.S. and Elsharkawy S.G., 2016. Time-series modeling and short term prediction of annual temperature trend on Coast Libya using the box-Jenkins ARIMA Model. Advances Res., 6(5), 1--11.
[19]
Balyani Y., Niya G.F., and Bayaat A., 2014. A study and prediction of annual temperature in Shiraz using ARIMA model. J. Geographic Space, 12(38), 127--144.
[20]
Anitha K., Boiroju N.K., and Reddy P.R., 2014. Forecasting of monthly mean of maximum surface air temperature in India. Int. J. Statistika Mathematika, 9(1), 14--19.
[21]
Muhammet B., 2012. The analyse of precipitation and temperature in Afyonkarahisar (Turkey) in respect of box-Jenkins technique. J.Academic Social Sci. Studies, 5(8), 196--212.
[22]
Khedhiri S., 2014. Forecasting temperature record in PEI, Canada. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 9, 43--55
[23]
Didier Delignières, Séries temporelles - Modèles ARIMA. Séminaire EA "Sport - Performance - Santé" Mars 2000.
[24]
Box G.E.P., Jenkins G., and Reinsel G., 2008. Time series analysis. Wiley Press, New Jersey, USA.
[25]
Pengfei Li, Box-Cox Transformations: An Overview, Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut Apr 11, 2005
[26]
Yannig Goude, Les processus AR et MA MAP-STA2 : Séries chronologiques 2018--2019.
[27]
Paul devuyst, Météorologie - Comprendre, interprêter, appliquer, Edité par A. DE VISSCHER EDITEUR / EDITIONS EYROLLES, 1972

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)TRANSPORT RISKS IN THE SUPPLY CHAINS – POST COVID-19 CHALLENGESJournal of Business Economics and Management10.3846/jbem.2024.2111025:2(211-225)Online publication date: 25-Mar-2024
  • (2020)Road traffic mortality in Morocco: Analysis of statistical data2020 International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Computer Vision (ISCV)10.1109/ISCV49265.2020.9204325(1-7)Online publication date: Jun-2020

Recommendations

Comments

Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Other conferences
SCA '19: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Smart City Applications
October 2019
788 pages
ISBN:9781450362894
DOI:10.1145/3368756
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 02 October 2019

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Check for updates

Author Tags

  1. ARIMA model
  2. Soda-Pro satellite
  3. road safety
  4. weather forecasting system

Qualifiers

  • Research-article

Conference

SCA2019

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)7
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
Reflects downloads up to 14 Feb 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)TRANSPORT RISKS IN THE SUPPLY CHAINS – POST COVID-19 CHALLENGESJournal of Business Economics and Management10.3846/jbem.2024.2111025:2(211-225)Online publication date: 25-Mar-2024
  • (2020)Road traffic mortality in Morocco: Analysis of statistical data2020 International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Computer Vision (ISCV)10.1109/ISCV49265.2020.9204325(1-7)Online publication date: Jun-2020

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media