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Research for construction and application of PCA-SVM for exchange rate forecasting

Published: 25 August 2018 Publication History

Abstract

The traditional SVM method has the problem of kernel function's parameters and dynamic optimization of penalty coefficient C. This paper constructs a hybrid model by extending the SVM method with PCA method to solve the problem. Finally we use the daily date of the exchange rate to test the high prediction accuracy of PCA-SVM model. In order to achieve better prediction accuracy, four kernel functions are used to construct different SVM. The empirical results show that SVR based on RBF kernel has the highest prediction accuracy. This result illustrates that the relevant government can take use of the model to monitor the smooth fluctuations in the exchange rate market.

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    IMMS '18: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Information Management and Management Science
    August 2018
    240 pages
    ISBN:9781450364867
    DOI:10.1145/3277139
    • Conference Chair:
    • Shuliang Li
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 25 August 2018

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    Author Tags

    1. PCA
    2. SVM
    3. exchange rate
    4. kernel functions
    5. prediction accuracy

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    • Chengdu Polytechnic
    • Sichuan Provincial Education Department

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    IMMS 2018

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