research-article

Modeling and simulation of local epidemics

Author:

Ivan KřivýAuthors Info & Claims

CompSysTech '07: Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Computer systems and technologies

Article No.: 34, Pages 1 - 6

https://doi.org/10.1145/1330598.1330636

Published: 14 June 2007 Publication History

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Abstract

A branching process model of a local epidemic is briefly discussed and some useful expressions are given for the fundamental characteristics of the epidemic outbreaks. Starting from the model, a program tool (written in SIMULA) is described for simulating small outbreaks of a contagious disease in a large susceptible population. The tool is able to visualize the spread of local epidemics in a realistic way. The results of simulation experiments showed a good agreement with the theoretical predictions.

References

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Bailey, N. T. J. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases. New York: Hafner Press, 1975.

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Frauenthal, J. C. Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1980.

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[3]

Kindler, E., Skuhravý, V. Attempt to Simulation of Forest Calamities by Means of SIMULA. In: J. Štefan (Ed.) Proceedings of the International Conference on Modelling and Simulation of Systems. Vol. 1. Ostrava: MARQ, 1999, pp. 241--246.

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[4]

Křivý, I. Branching Process Model in Epidemiology. Biocybernetics and Biomedical Engineering 1997, 17/1--2, pp. 169--179.

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Křivý, I., Kindler, E. Some Experience with Converting the Epidemics Model into CIM Implementation. In: Proceedings of 28^th ASU Conference. Brno: University of Technology, 2002, pp. 27--33.

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Information

Published In

CompSysTech '07: Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Computer systems and technologies

June 2007

761 pages

ISBN:9789549641509

DOI:10.1145/1330598

Conference Chairs:
Plamen Vatchkov
Bulgaria
,
Bozhan Zhechev
Bulgaria
,
Editors:
Boris Rachev
Technical University of Varna
,
Angel Smrikarov
University of Rousse
,
Dimo Dimov
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 14 June 2007

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