Papers by Carlos Cardoso Ferreira
Revista Cartográfica, 2019
En este artículo se utilizaron las fotos georreferenciadas, compartidas por usuarios de la red “P... more En este artículo se utilizaron las fotos georreferenciadas, compartidas por usuarios de la red “Panoramio” entre 2007 y 2014, como un proxy para analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de los visitantes, en la ciudad de Lisboa. El conjunto total de datos…
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Sustainability, 2017
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
A utilização de Sistemas de multi-agentes (SMA) em ciências sociais tem ganho importância devido ... more A utilização de Sistemas de multi-agentes (SMA) em ciências sociais tem ganho importância devido ao potencial que demonstram para modelação de fenómenos complexos. A Teoria da Complexidade tem aplicação em vários campos científicos, nomeadamente em turismo os investigadores começam a analisar o sistema enquanto complexo. Contudo, há pouca aplicação de SMA como ferramenta para explorar e prever padrões em turismo. O objectivo do trabalho é desenvolver um SMA que contribua para o conhecimento do processo de tomada decisão do turista na selecção de um destino de férias. SMA permitem: (i) considerar fenómenos turísticos de natureza complexa, (ii) fornecer ferramentas para explorar relações complexas entre componentes do sistema, (iii) retirar pistas sobre o funcionamento do sistema e do processo de tomada de decisão do turista. A motivação individual e a influência da rede social são discutidas quanto à importância que detêm no processo de tomada de decisão de destino de férias pelos tu...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Current Issues in Tourism, 2015
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 2018
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change latest findings, average air temperatu... more According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change latest findings, average air temperature in southern Europe can raise from 2oC to 6oC until 2100. Longer, warmer summers and smoother winters can be expected, along with changes in the precipitation regime and quantities. In tourism, as well as in other climate sensitive economic sectors – such as agriculture considerable impacts are likely to happen. Changes in what concerns tourism flows and seasonality can be anticipated, as well as in the activities in which tourists engage. Impacts of climate change in tourism can be either positive or negative, although most literature on the subject has emphasized costs more than benefits. The purpose of this paper is to reflect upon these matters that are currently in an early stage of debate. Taking into account the results of interviews to tourists carried out in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as a part of the international project “Urban Tourism and Climate Change”, we try to asses...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
This chapter presents an overview and analysis of the various aspects of resources and users in t... more This chapter presents an overview and analysis of the various aspects of resources and users in the three Portuguese cases of Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), Eastern Algarve (EA) and Funchal Metropolitan Area (FMA). The LMA case study encompasses resources from the Tagus estuary, as well as the adjacent river and seafront. This area is briefly characterized by the presence of some ecological values under conservation status as well as intense construction for residential and economic purposes. Thus it is home of some polluting activities and difficult acess to waterfront due to port and shipping activities, as well as anthropogenic occupation of flooding risk areas. The EA case study includes resources like barrier islands with protection status, coastal cliffs with high level of erosion risk, and an urban-touristic section, characterized by the intense building occupation and soil sealing. This area has a strong demand during the summer season which results on potential conflicting...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Advances in Hospitality, Tourism, and the Services Industry
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
As cities become increasingly complex, Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) bring sm... more As cities become increasingly complex, Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) bring smartness into organisations and communities, contributing to a more competitive tourism destination, i.e., smart tourism destinations. Enhanced information access coupled with a new kind of tourists avid for online content and predisposed to share information on social media, allows for a better understanding of tourist behaviour regarding their spatial distribution in urban destinations. Thus, smart tourism portrays individuals as information makers, refining the available alternatives for tracking their location. Big data analytics is a technology with the potential to develop Smart City services. From the analysis of the spatial distribution of tourists in the city of Lisbon based on data collected from the ‘Panoramio’ social network, we identify the most popular places in the city in a context of tourist visits. This new data largely contributes to understanding the consumption of space within urban tourist destinations and therefore enables us to differentiate the overcrowded places from the ones with potential to grow. This allows decision-makers to imagine new ways of planning and managing towards a sustainable ‘smart’ future.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Land use/cover changes (LUCC) are central to tourism because land is used in multiple ways as a r... more Land use/cover changes (LUCC) are central to tourism because land is used in multiple ways as a resource for tourism-focused activities. Tourism is essentially a geographical phenomenon, encompassing the
movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track
and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of microlevel
LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This
paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development
on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian
transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism
development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new
tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover
compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline.
Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year
2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions
(NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and
focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall
results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of
tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming more relevant in social simulation due to the potential to... more Agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming more relevant in social simulation due to the potential to model complex phenomena that emerge from individual interactions. In tourism research, complexity is a subject of growing interest and researchers start to analyse the tourism system as a complex phenomenon. However, there is little application of ABMs as a tool to explore and predict tourism patterns. The purpose of the paper is to develop an ABM that increases knowledge in tourism research by (i) considering the complexity of tourism phenomenon, (ii) providing tools to explore the complex relations between system components and (iii) giving insights on the functioning of the system and the tourist decision-making process. A theoretical ABM is developed to improve knowledge on tourist decision-making in the selection of a destination to vacation. Tourists’ behaviour, such as individual motivation, and social network influence in the vacation decision-making process are hereby discussed.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Conference Presentations by Carlos Cardoso Ferreira
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change latest findings, average air temperatu... more According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change latest findings, average air temperature in southern Europe can raise from 2ºC to 6ºC until 2100. Longer, warmer summers and smoother winters can be expected, along with changes in the precipitation regime and quantities. In tourism, as well as in other climate sensitive economic
sectors – such as agriculture - considerable impacts are likely to happen. Changes in what concerns tourism flows and seasonality can be anticipated, as well as in the activities in which tourists engage. Impacts of climate change in tourism can be either positive or negative, although most literature on the subject has emphasized costs more than
benefits. The purpose of this paper is to reflect upon these matters that are currently in an early stage of debate. Taking into account the results of interviews to tourists carried out in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as a part of the international project “Urban Tourism and Climate Change”, we try to assess to what extent climate changes will impact on tourism trends and tourist perceptions, behaviour and preferences, and also how
these can influence the attractiveness of urban destinations.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Uploads
Papers by Carlos Cardoso Ferreira
movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track
and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of microlevel
LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This
paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development
on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian
transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism
development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new
tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover
compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline.
Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year
2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions
(NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and
focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall
results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of
tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.
Conference Presentations by Carlos Cardoso Ferreira
sectors – such as agriculture - considerable impacts are likely to happen. Changes in what concerns tourism flows and seasonality can be anticipated, as well as in the activities in which tourists engage. Impacts of climate change in tourism can be either positive or negative, although most literature on the subject has emphasized costs more than
benefits. The purpose of this paper is to reflect upon these matters that are currently in an early stage of debate. Taking into account the results of interviews to tourists carried out in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as a part of the international project “Urban Tourism and Climate Change”, we try to assess to what extent climate changes will impact on tourism trends and tourist perceptions, behaviour and preferences, and also how
these can influence the attractiveness of urban destinations.
movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track
and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of microlevel
LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This
paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development
on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian
transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism
development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new
tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover
compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline.
Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year
2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions
(NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and
focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall
results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of
tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.
sectors – such as agriculture - considerable impacts are likely to happen. Changes in what concerns tourism flows and seasonality can be anticipated, as well as in the activities in which tourists engage. Impacts of climate change in tourism can be either positive or negative, although most literature on the subject has emphasized costs more than
benefits. The purpose of this paper is to reflect upon these matters that are currently in an early stage of debate. Taking into account the results of interviews to tourists carried out in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as a part of the international project “Urban Tourism and Climate Change”, we try to assess to what extent climate changes will impact on tourism trends and tourist perceptions, behaviour and preferences, and also how
these can influence the attractiveness of urban destinations.
research focused upon the emerging trend of the elderly to travel abroad. Such demand is characterised by its specific position regarding
life and productive cycles and is commonly named as senior.
The decision to frame the research on a segmented aspect of the tourism activity – the senior travel market – is based upon the
understanding that such demand has a unique profile, not only of a demographic nature, but also social, economic and cultural as well; these characteristics determine the shape and intensity of tourism behaviour and its territorial outcome.
The strengthening of this phenomenon in daily modern societies arises from the intersection of two contemporary, structural and relentless
dynamics: the demographic ageing and the consolidation of tourism as a societal value and as one of the forefront economic activities for
country and regional development. Upon such premise, the subject’s junction position of social and economic issues must be highlighted, on
top of which a geographical approach was settled, envisaging the different territorial expressions of international senior tourism.
The study was conducted during the period from September 2007 to April 2008 by a team of 15 investigators/consultants: Carlos Ferreira as the General Coordinator and CEDRU team leader; Nuno Monteiro as BCG team leader, and the following foreign researchers: Anthony Warnes from SISA - Sheffield Institute for Studies on Ageing / University of Sheffield; Allan Williams from ISET - The Institute for the Study of European Transformation; Klaus Friedrich from the Institut für Geographie / Martin-Luther-Universität, Halle-Wittenberg.
the concepts of fractals, and fractal dimension (D). Exploring tourism intensification in Lisbon, we first present a geographic
construct that represents the spatial layout of tourism based on crowd-contributed spatial signatures advocating a collective
sense of the “tourist city.” Then, we assess the tourism-related intensification patterns, based on the estimation of D, for
different years. Significant statistical associations can be found between D and tourism intensification across the urban space.
Intensification on tourism cores is more homogeneously distributed, yet it evolves into a more compact form of spatial
organization. On the other hand, there is a decline in the degree of homogeneity of tourism intensification from tourism
cores to the periphery. This approach has also proved useful for exploring tourism intensification in destinations at different
hierarchical levels, such as in Lisbon and Oporto metropolitan areas.
cidade de Lisboa, partilhadas na rede ‘Panoramio’ entre 2007 e 2014, como proxy
para analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal dos mesmos dentro da cidade. O
conjunto total de dados (> 75.000 fotografias) foi segmentado em visitantes e locais,
com base nas marcas temporais, resultando numa amostra de 17.604 fotos tiradas
por > 5.000 utilizadores. A evidência empírica sugere que a distribuição espacial dos
visitantes não é homogénea. Complementarmente, avaliamos a relação espacial entre
o padrão observado (a aglomeração geográfica de visitantes) e um conjunto de 24
variáveis associadas à oferta turística da cidade. Através da análise de regressão linear
múltipla, verificou-se que são os ‘Monumentos de interesse público’, os elementos
que apresentam maior atratividade e, apurou-se, considerando os fatores explicativos
selecionados, que existem áreas do centro histórico, cujo potencial turístico está
subestimado.
destinations. Thus, smart tourism portrays individuals as information makers, refining the available alternatives for tracking their location. Big data analytics is a technology with the potential to develop Smart City services. From the analysis of the spatial distribution of tourists in the city of Lisbon based on data collected from the ‘Panoramio’ social network, we identify the most popular places in the city in a context of tourist visits. This new data largely contributes to understanding the consumption
of space within urban tourist destinations and therefore enables us to differentiate the overcrowded places from the ones with potential to grow. This allows decision-makers to imagine new ways of planning and managing towards a sustainable ‘smart’ future.