Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes... more Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.
... chain in Baden-Württemberg Irina Prokofieva, Roser Masjuan, Bernhard Wolfslehner, Manfred J. ... more ... chain in Baden-Württemberg Irina Prokofieva, Roser Masjuan, Bernhard Wolfslehner, Manfred J. Lexer, Werner Rammer, Aske S. Bosselmann and Bo J. Thorsen EFI Technical Report 49, 2011 Page 2. A technical report documenting ...
Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throug... more Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20(th) century (1). Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase (2), yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget (3,4), and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests (5). Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21(st) century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10(6) m(3) of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest car...
Aufgabe eines Partizipativen Regional Integrierten Vulnerabilitätsassessments (PRIVAS) ist es, in... more Aufgabe eines Partizipativen Regional Integrierten Vulnerabilitätsassessments (PRIVAS) ist es, in Zusammenarbeit mit Stakeholdern die integrative Wissensproduktion bei einem komplexen Mensch-Umwelt-Problem wie dem Klimawandel zu optimieren. Dieses Ziel stellt jedes Projekt vor konzeptive, methodische, prozessuale und forschungspraktische Herausforderungen, denen sich RIVAS in der Testregion gestellt hat. Auf Basis der Analyse und Erfahrungen aus 14 nationalen und internationalen Vulnerabilitätsassessments und der einschlägigen wissenschaftlichen Literatur wurde ein experimentelles Ablaufdesign für ein PRIVAS erstellt, welches im Mostviertel in einer Laufzeit von über einem Jahr umgesetzt wurde. Den Kern der Stakeholderinteraktionen bildete eine Referenzgruppe, die sich aus Akteuren der Demosektoren Land-, Wasser- und Forstwirtschaft, dem Regionalmanagement und des Projektteams zusammensetzte. Die Referenzgruppe war zentraler Kommunikationsort, wo eine Dialog- und Konsensorientierung...
ABSTRACT Disturbances are key drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics, and forests are well adapted ... more ABSTRACT Disturbances are key drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics, and forests are well adapted to their natural disturbance regimes. However, as a result of climate change, disturbance frequency is expected to increase in the future in many regions. It is not yet clear how such changes might affect forest ecosystems, and which mechanisms contribute to (current and future) disturbance resilience. We studied a 6364-ha landscape in the western Cascades of Oregon, USA, to investigate how patches of remnant old-growth trees (as one important class of biological legacies) affect the resilience of forest ecosystems to disturbance. Using the spatially explicit, individual-based, forest landscape model iLand, we analyzed the effect of three different levels of remnant patches (0%, 12%, and 24% of the landscape) on 500-year recovery trajectories after a large, high-severity wildfire. In addition, we evaluated how three different levels of fire frequency modulate the effects of initial legacies. We found that remnant live trees enhanced the recovery of total ecosystem carbon (TEC) stocks after disturbance, increased structural complexity of forest canopies, and facilitated the recolonization of late-seral species (LSS). Legacy effects were most persistent for indicators of species composition (still significant 500 years after disturbance), while TEC (i.e., a measure of ecosystem functioning) was least affected, with no significant differences among legacy scenarios after 236 years. Compounding disturbances were found to dampen legacy effects on all indicators, and higher initial legacy levels resulted in elevated fire severity in the second half of the study period. Overall, disturbance frequency had a stronger effect on ecosystem properties than the initial level of remnant old-growth trees. A doubling of the historically observed fire frequency to a mean fire return interval of 131 years reduced TEC by 10.5% and lowered the presence of LSS on the landscape by 18.1% on average, demonstrating that an increase in disturbance frequency (a potential climate change effect) may considerably alter the structure, composition, and functioning of forest landscapes. Our results indicate that live tree legacies are an important component of disturbance resilience, underlining the potential of retention forestry to address challenges in ecosystem management.
ABSTRACT The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is present... more ABSTRACT The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is presented. Design principles derived from previous experiences in decision support system (DSS) development include support for (1) modularity, (2) accessibility via the Internet, (3) inclusion of different types of knowledge and information, (4) the use of different data sources, and (5) specific problem types. As major components of the AFM ToolBox DataBase, Vulnerability Assessment Tools (single user version, group mode) and an optimization tool to generate optimized management plans at the level of management units or landscapes are highlighted. A key feature is the distinction of two archetypical user profiles (manager, analyst). The AFM ToolBox is evaluated against eight criteria for the assessment of DSS. It is concluded that the ToolBox approach setting focus on modularity while avoiding to over-emphasis technical integration provides the right frame to secure the flexibility regarding tools and decision-making processes which is mandatory if a DSS should be taken up by practice.
Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes... more Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.
... chain in Baden-Württemberg Irina Prokofieva, Roser Masjuan, Bernhard Wolfslehner, Manfred J. ... more ... chain in Baden-Württemberg Irina Prokofieva, Roser Masjuan, Bernhard Wolfslehner, Manfred J. Lexer, Werner Rammer, Aske S. Bosselmann and Bo J. Thorsen EFI Technical Report 49, 2011 Page 2. A technical report documenting ...
Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throug... more Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20(th) century (1). Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase (2), yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget (3,4), and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests (5). Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21(st) century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10(6) m(3) of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest car...
Aufgabe eines Partizipativen Regional Integrierten Vulnerabilitätsassessments (PRIVAS) ist es, in... more Aufgabe eines Partizipativen Regional Integrierten Vulnerabilitätsassessments (PRIVAS) ist es, in Zusammenarbeit mit Stakeholdern die integrative Wissensproduktion bei einem komplexen Mensch-Umwelt-Problem wie dem Klimawandel zu optimieren. Dieses Ziel stellt jedes Projekt vor konzeptive, methodische, prozessuale und forschungspraktische Herausforderungen, denen sich RIVAS in der Testregion gestellt hat. Auf Basis der Analyse und Erfahrungen aus 14 nationalen und internationalen Vulnerabilitätsassessments und der einschlägigen wissenschaftlichen Literatur wurde ein experimentelles Ablaufdesign für ein PRIVAS erstellt, welches im Mostviertel in einer Laufzeit von über einem Jahr umgesetzt wurde. Den Kern der Stakeholderinteraktionen bildete eine Referenzgruppe, die sich aus Akteuren der Demosektoren Land-, Wasser- und Forstwirtschaft, dem Regionalmanagement und des Projektteams zusammensetzte. Die Referenzgruppe war zentraler Kommunikationsort, wo eine Dialog- und Konsensorientierung...
ABSTRACT Disturbances are key drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics, and forests are well adapted ... more ABSTRACT Disturbances are key drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics, and forests are well adapted to their natural disturbance regimes. However, as a result of climate change, disturbance frequency is expected to increase in the future in many regions. It is not yet clear how such changes might affect forest ecosystems, and which mechanisms contribute to (current and future) disturbance resilience. We studied a 6364-ha landscape in the western Cascades of Oregon, USA, to investigate how patches of remnant old-growth trees (as one important class of biological legacies) affect the resilience of forest ecosystems to disturbance. Using the spatially explicit, individual-based, forest landscape model iLand, we analyzed the effect of three different levels of remnant patches (0%, 12%, and 24% of the landscape) on 500-year recovery trajectories after a large, high-severity wildfire. In addition, we evaluated how three different levels of fire frequency modulate the effects of initial legacies. We found that remnant live trees enhanced the recovery of total ecosystem carbon (TEC) stocks after disturbance, increased structural complexity of forest canopies, and facilitated the recolonization of late-seral species (LSS). Legacy effects were most persistent for indicators of species composition (still significant 500 years after disturbance), while TEC (i.e., a measure of ecosystem functioning) was least affected, with no significant differences among legacy scenarios after 236 years. Compounding disturbances were found to dampen legacy effects on all indicators, and higher initial legacy levels resulted in elevated fire severity in the second half of the study period. Overall, disturbance frequency had a stronger effect on ecosystem properties than the initial level of remnant old-growth trees. A doubling of the historically observed fire frequency to a mean fire return interval of 131 years reduced TEC by 10.5% and lowered the presence of LSS on the landscape by 18.1% on average, demonstrating that an increase in disturbance frequency (a potential climate change effect) may considerably alter the structure, composition, and functioning of forest landscapes. Our results indicate that live tree legacies are an important component of disturbance resilience, underlining the potential of retention forestry to address challenges in ecosystem management.
ABSTRACT The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is present... more ABSTRACT The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is presented. Design principles derived from previous experiences in decision support system (DSS) development include support for (1) modularity, (2) accessibility via the Internet, (3) inclusion of different types of knowledge and information, (4) the use of different data sources, and (5) specific problem types. As major components of the AFM ToolBox DataBase, Vulnerability Assessment Tools (single user version, group mode) and an optimization tool to generate optimized management plans at the level of management units or landscapes are highlighted. A key feature is the distinction of two archetypical user profiles (manager, analyst). The AFM ToolBox is evaluated against eight criteria for the assessment of DSS. It is concluded that the ToolBox approach setting focus on modularity while avoiding to over-emphasis technical integration provides the right frame to secure the flexibility regarding tools and decision-making processes which is mandatory if a DSS should be taken up by practice.
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Papers by Werner Rammer