Subtropical cyclone

A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.^[1]

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As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were uncertain whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized and titled by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Beginning in 2002, subtropical cyclones began receiving names from the official tropical cyclone lists in the North Atlantic basin. Subtropical cyclones are also recognized in the South-West Indian Ocean and South Atlantic basins.

There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones depending on their location. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean, they require some central convection fairly near the center surrounding a warming core existing in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific however, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to be cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and with only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have wider wind fields with the maximum sustained winds located further from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.^[2]

Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold (around 26.5°C (79.7°F))^[3] by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the North Atlantic hurricane season and at higher latitudes. Subtropical cyclones are also observed to form in the South Atlantic, where subtropical cyclones are observed in all months.^[4]

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, the terms semi-tropical and quasi-tropical were used for what would become known as the subtropical cyclones.^[5] The term subtropical cyclone initially merely referred to any cyclone located in the subtropical belt near and just north of the horse latitudes. Later, intense debate ensued in the late 1960s, after a number of hybrid cyclones formed in the Atlantic Basin. In 1972, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) finally designated these "hybrid" storms as true subtropical cyclones in real-time,^[6] and updated the hurricane database to include subtropical cyclones from 1968 through 1971.

The term "neutercane" began to be used for small subtropical cyclones below 100 miles in diameter^[7] which formed from mesoscale features, and the NHC began issuing public statements during the 1972 Atlantic hurricane season employing that classification. This name was not noted as controversial in contemporary news reports, but it was quickly dropped less than a year later. Recent articles, published after the year 2000, have suggested that the name "neutercane" was considered sexist in the 1970s, but there do not appear to be any published reports from that period making this claim.^[8]

In the north Atlantic basin, subtropical cyclones were initially named from the NATO phonetic alphabet list in the early to mid-1970s.^[6] In the intervening years of 1975–2001, subtropical storms were either named from the traditional list and still was considered tropical in real-time, or used a separate numbering system instead. Between 1992 and 2001, two different numbers were given to subtropical depressions or subtropical storms, one for public use, the other one for NRL and NHC reference. For example, Hurricane Karen in 2001 was initially known as Subtropical Storm One as well as AL1301 (or 13L for short).^[9] In 2002, the NHC began giving numbers to subtropical depressions and names to subtropical storms from the same sequence as tropical cyclones. From 2002 onward, Subtropical Depression 13L would be known as Subtropical Depression Thirteen instead. Hurricane Gustav of 2002 was the first subtropical storm to receive a name but became tropical shortly after naming. Subtropical Storm Nicole from the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was the first subtropical storm that did not become tropical since the policy change. A subtropical storm from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season also did not become tropical, but was not named since it was not recognized until post-season analysis.^[10]

In the southern Indian Ocean, subtropical cyclones are also named once winds reach tropical storm or gale force.^[11]

Since 2011, subtropical storms in the western south Atlantic Ocean are named by the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center.^[12]

Subtropical cyclones can form in a wide band of latitude, mainly south of the 50th parallel in the northern hemisphere.^[13] Due to the increased frequency of cyclones which cut off from the main belt of the westerlies during the summer and fall, subtropical cyclones are significantly more frequent across the north Atlantic than the northwestern Pacific Ocean.^[14] In the eastern half of the north Pacific Ocean and north Indian Ocean, the older subtropical cyclone definition term is still used, which requires a weak circulation forming underneath a mid to upper-tropospheric low which has cut off from the main belt of the westerlies during the cold season (winter), similar to the north Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. In the case of the north Indian Ocean, the formation of this type of vortex leads to the onset of monsoon rains during the wet season.^[15] In the southern hemisphere, subtropical cyclones are regularly observed across southern portions of the Mozambique Channel.^[11]

Most subtropical cyclones form when a deep cold-core extratropical cyclone drops down into the subtropics. The system becomes blocked by a high latitude ridge, and eventually sheds its frontal boundaries as its source of cool and dry air from the high latitudes diverts away from the system, and warms the central circulation, allowing further transition. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa pressure level and the sea surface temperatures initially exceed the dry adiabatic lapse rate, which causes an initial round of thunderstorms to form at a distance east of the center. Due to the initial cold temperatures aloft, sea surface temperatures usually need to reach at least 20 °C (68 °F) for this initial round of thunderstorms. The initial thunderstorm activity humidifies the environment around the low pressure system, which destabilizes the atmosphere by reducing the lapse rate needed for convection. When the next shortwave or upper-level jet streak (wind maximum within the jet stream) moves nearby, the convection reignites closer to the center, which warms the core and develops the system into a true subtropical cyclone.^[16] The average sea surface temperature that helps lead to subtropical cyclogenesis is 24 °C (75 °F).^[1][17] If the thunderstorm activity becomes deep and persistent, allowing its initial low level warm core to deepen, extension to tropical cyclogenesis is possible.^[13] The locus of formation for north Atlantic subtropical cyclones is out in the open ocean; the island of Bermuda is regularly impacted by these systems.^[18]

The south Atlantic environment for formation of subtropical cyclones has both stronger vertical wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures, yet subtropical cyclogenesis is regularly observed in the open ocean in the south Atlantic. A second mechanism for formation has been diagnosed for south Atlantic subtropical cyclones: lee cyclogenesis in the region of the Brazil Current.^[4]

Subtropical cyclone formation is extremely rare in the far southeastern Pacific Ocean, due to the cold sea-surface temperatures generated by the Humboldt Current and unfavorable wind shear. In late April 2015, a rare subtropical cyclone was identified to have formed in this region. This system was unofficially dubbed Katie by researchers.^[19] Another subtropical cyclone was identified at 77.8 degrees longitude in May 2018, just off the coast of Chile.^[20] This system was unofficially named Lexi by researchers.^[21] A subtropical cyclone was spotted just off the Chilean coast in January 2022.^[22][23]

Kona storms (or Kona lows) are deep cyclones that form during the cool winter season of the central Pacific Ocean. A definition change in the term during the early 1970s makes categorization of the systems more complex, as many kona lows are extratropical cyclones, complete with their own weather fronts. Those across the northeast Pacific Ocean consider them subtropical cyclones as long as a weak surface circulation is present.^[15] Kona is a Hawaiian term for leeward, which explains the change in wind direction for the Hawaiian Islands from easterly to southerly when this type of cyclone is present.^[34]

Australian east coast lows (known locally as east coast lows and sometimes as east coast cyclones^[35]) are extratropical cyclones,^[36] the most intense of these systems have many of the characteristics of subtropical cyclones.^[37] They develop between 25° south and 40° south and within 5° of the Australian coastline,^[35] also typically during the winter months.^[38][39] Each year there are about ten "significant impact" maritime lows.^[40] Explosive cyclogenesis is seen on average just once per year, but these storms cause significant wind and flood damage when they occur.^[38] Australian east coast cyclones vary in size from mesoscale (approximately 10 km to 100 km) to synoptic scale (approximately 100 km to 1,000 km).^[41][42] These storms which mostly affect the southeast coast should not be confused with Australian region tropical cyclones which typically affect the northern half of the continent instead.

• Hybrid low (disambiguation)
• Extratropical transition technique
• Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone
• Australian east coast low
• Polar low
• Subtropical Cyclone Katie
• Subtropical Storm Alpha (2020)
• Tropical cyclone
• Extratropical cyclone