Climate Change Impacts Overview Delhi April 06 - David Warrilo
Climate Change Impacts Overview Delhi April 06 - David Warrilo
Climate Change Impacts Overview Delhi April 06 - David Warrilo
Change Impacts
David A Warrilow
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Observed and
predicted
European summer
temperatures.
2003 type heat-
waves will be
common by 2040
Impacts of climate change will be severe and widespread
For India we found:
• marked increase in both rainfall
and temperature over the 21st
century projected.
• maximum increases in rainfall (10
to 30%) may occur over central
India.
• temperatures projected to
increase by 3 to 4C towards the
end of the century.
• but behaviour of monsoon not
Change in annual mean surface
temperature by the 2080s compared to well simulated.
1961-1990, from the IPCC A2 scenario.
Climate Change a will affect all sectors and countries
Agriculture vulnerable to temperature
increases and rainfall changes
• A 2 C rise in temperature
decreases Indian wheat yield
- Up to 6% in sub tropical areas
- 17-18% in tropical areas
• For rice a 2 C rise projected to
reduce yields by 10-16% and a
4°C rise led to a 21-30%
reduction.
• Sensitivity to monsoon
- 19% rainfall deficit in 2002
reduced Indian GDP by 3%
Human Health also vulnerable
• More incidences of
malaria in areas that are
already malaria-prone,
and introduced into new
areas.
• Sensitive to the arrival of
the monsoon.
Transmission Window of Malaria in different
states of India
a) base case, b) with climate change
Sea-Level rise and storm surges
(A 2)
al
s usu
essa
u sin
B
Stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations and climate system inertia
Conclusions
• Climate change impacts are already being seen
• Climate change will affect all sectors and all countries
• Above 1-3 C rise many impacts could become critical.
• System changes could generate major impacts but hard to
predict.
• Sea level rise a significant long term issue
• Ocean acidification a serious direct impact of CO2
• Adaptation essential – but has its limits
• Need to limit climate change – 2 C?
• Without stabilisation of greenhouse gases at a level which
avoids dangerous anthropogenic climate change
sustainable development will not be possible