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Applied Epidemiology: DR Hamid Hussain

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APPLIED EPIDEMIOLOGY

How to start to write a scientific paper

Dr Hamid Hussain

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MEASURES OF MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY

 “One’s knowledge of science begins when


he can measure what he is saying and
express it in numbers” Lord Kelvin 1824 – 1907
BASIC CONCEPTS
1. MID YEAR POPULATION; As population
continuously changes (births, deaths, migrations)
we take mid point (1st July) as denominator

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2. POPULATION AT RISK; It focuses on a group
at risk of disease
 Eg: in calculating GENERAL FERTILITY RATE denominator
is restricted to 15 – 49 years women excluding very old
and young females.
 Calculating the occurrence of PROSTATE CANCER the
denominator is restricted to males
3. Person time; person enter the study at
different time. They are under observation for
varying times. In such cases the denominator
is a combination of person and time

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1. Crude mortality;(Annual Mortality Rate)
Total deaths from all causes in one year / Persons in population
at mid year

 We may be interested in certain age group e.g. children less


than 10 years age than it is “(Age Specific Mortality Rate)”
Total deaths from all causes for children less than 10 years age in
one year
Total Children less than 10 years age at mid year
 It may be “Cause Specific Mortality Rate” suppose lung cancer

deaths
Deaths from Lung Cancer = Deaths from lung cancer in 1 year
Persons in population at mid year
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2. CASE FATALITY RATE (C.F.R.)
CFR= Deaths during a specified duration after diagnosis
PERSONS DIAGNOSED IN THE SAME DURATION
◦ CFR measures the severity of disease.
◦ CFR measures the benefit of new therapy
 Example to clarify Mortality Rate and CFR
 Total population = 100,000
 Diagnosed having the disease X = 20
 Deaths due to disease X = 18

A.M.R. = 18 / 100000 = 0.018%


C.F.R. = 18/20 = 90%

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3. Proportionate Mortality Rate
 Proportionate Mortality Rate due to heart diseases in 2010
in Pakistan:-
= Deaths from heart diseases in 2010 in Pakistan
Total deaths in 2010 in Pakistan

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 Human disease: does not arise in a vacuum. It
results from an interaction of the host (a
person), the agent (e.g., a bacterium) and the
environment (e.g., a contaminated water
supply).

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 “Iceberg” concept – the tip is only visible much
like the clinical appearance of disease…bulk of
the problem may be hidden from view.

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Iceberg Phenomenon

Apparent clinical diseases

in apparent subclinical diseases

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◦ Example
◦ tuberculosis cases are not always clinically visible;
◦ Most cases of polio in pre-vaccine days were sub-
clinical, but were capable of spreading the virus
◦ On the other extreme is measles where large number
of cases is apparent
◦ individuals with clogged arteries may experience no
symptoms until their first heart attack

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