Supply. HRP

Forecasting Manpower Supply
Anita Singh
Supply Analysis : Forecasting
Supply forecast determines whether the HR department will be able to procure the required
number personnel. It measures specifically the number of people likely to be available from
within and outside the organisation.
It Covers:
• Existing human resources
• Internal Sources of supply
• External Sources of supply
Present Employees: Analysis of present employees is greatly facilitated by HR audits, which

summarises each employee’s skills and abilities. The audits of non-managers are called skills
inventories and those of management is called management inventories. Whatever name is
used , an inventory catalogues each employee’s skills and abilities – and gives the planners a
comprehensive understanding of the capabilities found in the organization's workforce.
Inventories are computerised and updated periodically.
Skill Inventories:
• Background & biographical data
• Work experience
• Specific skills and knowledge
• Supervisory evaluators
• Responsibilities
• Career goals
Management Inventory:
• Work history
• Strengths and weakness
• Promotional potential
• Career goals
• Personal data
• Previous management duties
Internal Supply: The techniques that planners use for the purpose of internal supply analysis are:
• Inflows and outflows:

current personnel level - outflow + inflow = internal supply
inflows = transfers, promotions, etc.

outflows = resignations, discharges, demotions, retirements
• Turnover rate:
Number of separations during one year x 100
Average no. of employees during one year
• Conditions of work and absenteeism (unauthorized absence from work):

Absenteeism = Number of persons – days lost x 100
Avg. no. of persons x no. of working days
• Productivity level: any change in it would effect the number of persons required per unit of
output
• Movement among jobs: Some jobs are sources of personnel for other jobs.
External Supply:
They are important for the following reasons:
1.) new blood and new experience will be available

2.) organisation needs to replinish lost personnels
3.)organisational growth and diversification creates the need to use external
sources to obtain additional number and type of employees.
Analysis Of Manpower Supply:
Wastage Analysis:
Wastage is severance from the organisation, which includes, voluntary retirement, normal
retirement, resignations, deaths and dismissals.
Induction Crisis
Levers Differential Transit
Settled Connection
Weeks Time Mnths/years

• Wastage decreases with: increase of length of service, increased skill
exercises and age of employees.
• Wastage is seen more amongst female employees
• Level of employment, working conditions, size of firms are all important
variables of manpower wastage
Methods Of Wastage Analysis:
1. Labour Turnover Index:

Number of employees leaving
--------------------------------------------------------- x 100
Average number of employees employed
Average number of employees employed in a given time period is decided by adding the
employees at the beginning and end and then dividing the same by two.
This shows the percentage of employees leaving over a period of time (say, in the course of a
year). This rate can be then compared over time and with that of other organizations
Example
• At the beginning of a year, a firm has 250 employees, while at the end it has 230 .
Assume no recruitment has been made in between. Compute the labour turnover
index.
Solution:
No of employees leaving =250-230=20
Average no. of employees employed =250+230=20
2
Labour turnover = No. of employees leaving x100
Average no. of employees employed
=20 x100 =8.33%
240
Suppose 5 people have been recruited in between during the year, then labour turnover
would be:
No. leaving =(250+5-230) =25
Average no. employees employed = (255+230) =243
2
Labour turnover =25/243 x100= 10%
2. Stability Index:
Number of employees with one or more year' s service X 100

Number employed one year ago
This will show whether the workforce is generally stable or volatile. in conjunction
with the labor turnover rate, it can help to focus problems. These may include
whether the organization is failing to bring in new blood because of low turnover.
Cohort Analysis:
Legth of No Cumulativ Remainin Survival as
Cohort means homogeneous Service Leaving e g % of leaving
groups . It takes into account the (yrs) Leavers
length of service, which is an
0 0 0 500 100
important variable of wastage
analysis. Thus it eliminates the
defect of labor turnover index. This
analysis is more accurate for small 1 50 50 450 90
homogenous groups.
2 45 95 405 81
No remaining at a given time x 100
No engaged at start
3 40 135 365 73
Census Analysis:
One major deficiency of cohort analysis is that it holds good for a small homogenous group.
This analysis can eliminate this problem, taking into account a cross section of the
organisation, i.e., all the age specific wastage rates at a given time and applying a
smoothing algorithm to the resulting data to identify a general pattern.
It requires 3 sets of data as under:

• The no of employees at the beginning of a census
• The no. of employees at the end of the census, and
• The no of leavers during the census period
Manpower Planning Models
MARKOV MODEL
…A method for tracking the pattern of employee
promotions up through and organization.
Starts with a given group of employees that exists

in the level of the organisation, given the flows in
and out of each level, they estimate the
population of level in the future.
…This type of model is particularly useful when the
knowledge of existing employees is available
together with the probabilities of flows between
succeeding years and the required future
manpower is not known.
• Markov model is often called as ‘push’ model
also.
• The basic assumption is that the employee in
any level has a fixed probability of promotion in
a given year. Employees receiving promotion
depends upon the number of eligible staff in
rank below. There is no requirement of a
vacancy to exist in the higher rank .
Markov Analysis for a Retail Company
RENEWAL MODEL
• It is based on the assumption that
requirements are met by changes in
promotion and recruitment rates.
• In this way ,the employees are pulled
through the system to meet predetermined
requirements.
• Because of this renewal model is called as
pull model.
• This model is useful when the future
manpower requirements are known within
reasonable limits and what flows are
required to meet the must be identified.
REPLACEMENT CHARTS AND SUCCESSION
PLANNING
Replacements charts
• Both skill and management inventories- broadly referred to as talent

inventories- can be used to develop employee replacement charts,
which lists current job holders and people who are potential
replacements if an opening occur.
Succession Planning
The process of identifying ,developing, and tracking key individuals
for executive positions.
An Executive Replacement Chart
• It is based on a very simple fact that a
replacement is called for whenever new
equipment offers more efficient service
than the old existing one.
• Similarly ,the staff of the organisation calls
for replacement because people leave the
organisation for several reasons.
• For planning a suitable recruitment policy,
historical data are collected to estimate
Continued….
the likely stay of individuals with the
organisation through time.
Simulation:
Here a given real system is copied and the variables and constants associated with it are
manipulated in an artificial environment to examine the behavior of the system. Broadly,
there are four phases of the simulation process:
• Definition of the problem and statement of objectives

• Construction of an appropriate model
• Experimentation with the model constructed, and
• Evaluation of the results of simulation.

Supply. HRP

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Supply. HRP

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Supply. HRP

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Forecasting Manpower Supply

Present Employees: Analysis of present employees is greatly facilitated by HR audits, which

• Inflows and outflows:

inflows = transfers, promotions, etc.

• Conditions of work and absenteeism (unauthorized absence from work):

They are important for the following reasons:

1.) new blood and new experience will be available

Levers Differential Transit

Weeks Time Mnths/years

Methods Of Wastage Analysis:

1. Labour Turnover Index:

Number of employees with one or more year' s service X 100

It requires 3 sets of data as under:

Starts with a given group of employees that exists

• Both skill and management inventories- broadly referred to as talent

• Definition of the problem and statement of objectives

You might also like