DRAFT NATIONAL VISION 2040

Vision: “A transformed Ugandan society from a

peasant to a modern and prosperous country
within 30 years”

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 Presentation Outline
Background - Rationale and Context
Where we are now
Where we want to be in 30 years time
-The Vision
How to get there
Strategies
Priority interventions

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Comprehensive National Development Planning
Framework

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 Background - Rationale and Context
• Long-term planning in Uganda
• Previous efforts in developing the vision
frameworks: The case of 2025
• Faster and coordinated transformation
• Reviews of emerging economies &
globalisation trends
• Policy framework (Comprehensive
National Development Planning
Framework -2007)

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 WHY VISION 2025 NOT
IMPLEMENTED
 Inadequatelegal, policy and institutional
framework (NPA Act 2002)
 MDGs - most funding donor
 Economics of the time- liberal economics

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 NEED FOR LONG- TERM
 Harmonized direction for many
stakeholders
 Prioritization
 Long term projects – infrastructure
 Minimizing cost of development
 Optimizing competitiveness
 Worked for all Asian and European
countries- Germany, China, Korea

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WHERE WE ARE NOW -
SITUATION ANALYSIS

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Economic Growth Performances of Several
Countries (1960-2010)

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GDP and GDP Per-capita Trends for Uganda
550.00 18,000
500.00 16,000
450.00
14,000
400.00
12,000
350.00
GDPper capita US$

300.00 10,000

GDP(US$ Millions)
250.00 8,000
200.00
6,000
150.00
4,000
100.00
50.00 2,000
0.00 -
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year

GDP (Current US$) GDP per capita

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Our competitiveness

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WHERE IS THE WORLD
GOING

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Where is world going

Fewer dominant but strong industrial

value chains (standard chartered, apple)
Easy access to technology and knowledge
More informed population with easy
access to information
More democracy and demanding
population
Naked Government and Naked leadership

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Train technology

Speed up to 480 KM/ hr.

DO you need to fly
Competitive advantage, reduction in cost of transportation,
infrastructure requirements, technology advancement ----
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WHERE WE WANT TO BE IN 30
YEARS TIME - THE VISION

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Vision Statement:
A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant
to a modern and prosperous country within 30
years
What the vision means
A competitive upper middle income country by
2040
Theme:
Accelerating Uganda’s Development to greater
Prosperity
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 UGANDA’S TARGETS FOR 2040
1. Development Indicator Baseline Target
Status 2040
2. Per capita income USD 506 USD 9500
3. % of population below the poverty line 24.5 5
4. Income distribution(GINI Coefficient) 0.43 0.32
5. Sectoral composition of Agriculture 23.8 10
GDP (%) Industry 24.9 31
Services 45.3 58
6. Labor force distribution in Agriculture 65.6 31
line with sectoral Industry 7.6 26
contribution (%) Services 26.8 43
7. % share of national labor force employed 70.9 94
8. Manufactured exports as a % of total exports 4.2 50
9. Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP 24.1 30
10. Saving as a % of GDP 14.5 35
11. ICT goods & services as a % of total export 0 40
12. Technology up-take & diffusion(technology achievement 0.24 0.5
index TAI)
13. Public expenditure as a % share of R &D to GDP 0.1 2.5
14. Innovation as measured by patents registered per year 3 6000
15. Electricity consumption per capita(kWh) 75 3668
16. % population with access to electricity 11 80

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17. Water consumption per capita(m3) 26 600
18. % population with access to safe piped water 15 80
19. % of standard paved roads to total road network 4 80
20. % of cargo freight on rail to total freight 3.5 80
21. % of population in planned Urban 51 100
settlements Rural 0 100
22. % level of urbanization 13 60
23. Labor Productivity (GDP Agriculture 390 6,790
per Worker - USD) Industry 3,550 24,820
Services 1,830 25,513
Total 1,017 19,770
24. Life expectancy at birth (years) 51.5 85
25. Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births 63 4
26. Maternal mortality rate per 100,000 310 15
27. Under 5 mortality rate per 1000 live births 96 8
28. Child stunting as a % of under 5s 33 0
29. Literacy Rate (%) 73 95
30. Gender Related Development Index (GDI) 0.51 0.9
31. Population growth rate 3.2 2.4
32. Forest Cover (% land Area) 15 24
33. Wetland Cover - % of total area 8 13

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Growth Strategy
800,000,000,000
751,777,659,651

700,000,000,000

600,000,000,000 588,411,069,554

Lower Limit Target Upper Limit

500,000,000,000
GDP in US$, Billions

400,000,000,000 376,471,488,053

300,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

17,010,765,767
-
00 07 14 21 28 35
20 20 20 20 20 20

Year

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 Growth Strategy cont’d
Economi Nominal GDP at Market Prices (USD, Real GDP (Local Currency) Growth Rates
c Billions)
Sector

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2036-2040
2010

2012-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

2026-2030

2031-2035
Total 17.0 19.3 29.2 50. 99.0 222. 580.5 8.44 8.58 8.35 8.22 8.07 7.80
GDP 2 3

Agric 3.8 4.2 5.5 8.2 13.8 26.7 60.1 5.24 5.37 5.15 5.02 4.88 4.62

Industry 4.5 5.4 8.5 15. 30.4 69.3 182.6 9.67 9.52 9.05 8.71 8.40 7.99
1

Services 8.7 9.7 15.2 27. 54.8 126. 337.8 9.30 9.35 9.05 8.85 8.65 8.33
0 2

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Sector Shares of GDP (Actual and
Forecasts)

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How to get there

Harnessing opportunities by strengthening the

fundamentals
THE OPPORTUNITIES

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 Oil and Gas

 To date –only 40% of Albertan Graben explored,

about 3.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent
 Need to add value by construction of a refinery
 Development of supporting infrastructure (e.g.
pipelines)
 Benefits from secondary and tertiary industries
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 Tourism
• Gorilla tracking
• Cultural
diversity
• Bird watching
• Community
tourism
• Water sports
• Butterfly
watching

◦ Potential of earning at least 12 billion dollars per year

◦ Required improved infrastructure and diversifying tourism products
◦ Establish a corporate Uganda Tourism Authority to replace the Uganda Tourism Board to
reduce pressure on national budget to support tourism marketing and development
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 Mineral Development

Over 27 commercially viable minerals notably; iron ore, phosphates, rare earth minerals
with a potential of creating primary and tertiary industries
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 Industrialisation
Based on the local potential
Geese approach (strategic
industries)
Offshoring (BPOs)
 Approach: Gov’t direct investment,
PPPs, Industrial & Economic Zones

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 Agriculture
Commercialisation
Mechanisation
Agro based industries
Irrigation
Agriculture Zoning based on well
developed value chains

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 Abundant Labor Force Opportunities

• Projections show that over 30 years, majority of Ugandans (56%)

will be young and productive labour force
• Comparatively cheap labour force in the global context
• Need to impact them with globally competitive skills-innovators
and drivers
• Countries like China will be releasing over 12 million jobs
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 Other Opportunities
• Geographical positioning and trade
opportunities
• Regional integration – Markets, harmonising vision
• Location at the centre of a big region facilitating
connectivity
• Implementation of regional infrastructure protocols very
critical
• Critical for strategic regional political strategies
• Water resources
• Knowledge and ICT
• ICT as a business – global potential estimated at 1.6 trillion
• Proportion of ICT goods in total exports is 0% compared to
56% -Philippines, 45% in Singapore and Malaysia

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STRENGTHENING THE
FUNDAMENTALS

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 Fundamentals
The key fundamentals required to
harness the opportunities for faster
growth are;
 Infrastructure (energy, transport, oil pipeline,
ICT and water)
 Human Resource
 Science, Technology, Engineering and
Innovations
 Peace security and defence
Must be to international standards and
globally competitive
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Fundamentals- Transport

• Standard gauge rail – fast train (300 - 500KM/Hr)

• Good road network (freeways, express ways and
highways)
• 4 international airports
• Improved water transport
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Fundamental- Energy

Current electricity consumption is at 75 kWh

per Capita to change to 3668 kWh per capita,
(South Korea at 8502kWh, Malaysia at 3668
kWh , South Africa at 4595kWh). Critical for
industrialization
Developing nuclear energy
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ICT Infrastructure

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 Urbanisation
Accelerate urbanisation from 15% to 60%
Develop 5 Regional and 4 strategic Cities
in addition to GKMA
Develop strategic towns
Release land for agriculture

Approach:
Provide prerequisite infrastructure &
services – light rail transport system,
creation of sate light cities, improving
livability etc.
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 Human Resource Development
Targetis to develop a globally competitive
human resource
◦ Build a modern world class education
system
◦ Set up research and development centres in
collaboration with international companies
◦ Encourage leading universities to set up
campuses in Uganda
◦ Change the curriculum system
◦ Emphasis of science, technology,
Engineering and innovation
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 Science, technology, engineering and
innovations (STEI)
Innovation system spearheaded by
Government
Technology incubation centres
Engineering centres –engineering talents
Research fund and venture capital fund
Emphasis on bio-science and Nano-
technology- future

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NECESSARY DEV’T IN OTHER
KEY AREAS

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Raising level of social development
Population-
sustainable age structure
Improvement in health sector
◦ Facility based to household based Health
delivery system
◦ Curative to preventive system
◦ Focus on nutrition and public health
◦ Partnership with international hospitals
established here to provide specialised care
◦ Universal health insurance system through
PPPs
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 Social development ctd
Education and Literacy
◦ Universal primary and secondary
◦ Retention in school increased
◦ Early talent identification
◦ Change of education system- skills and training

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 Social development ctd
Social protection
◦ Universal pension system
◦ Care for the vulnerable –special protection
systems
◦ Human rights observation

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 Governance
Promote National Unity and Cohesion
Compulsory National Service System
National value system
Bicameral Parliamentary System
Strengthening accountability systems
Strengthen independence of the Department of Public
Prosecution (DPP)
Decentralisation
National Foreign Policy – how it will impact Vision
implementation
Strengthen national guidance (establish NG Commission)

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Crosscutting issues
Environment
Climate change
Gender
Human Rights
HIV/ AIDS

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HOW TO GET THERE - STRATEGIES &
POLICY SHIFTS

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 Strategies
Review and change the architecture of
government service delivery system
Adopt a quasi-market approach with a mix of
government investments in strategic areas and
private sector market driven actions
Investment in better urban systems that enhance
productivity, livability and sustainability
Pursue the strategy of industrialization and
establish a modern industrial system

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Leapfrogging in the areas innovation,
technology and science, engineering, human
resource development, public sector
management, and private sector development
Change citizens’ attitudes and mind sets
Implement Vision within framework of East
African Community and other regional blocs
Explore alternative financing mechanisms
Establish an infrastructure fund
Front-loading key strategic investments

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Priority interventions sequencing

           
  AGRO MACHINE HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER
INDUSTRIES TOOLS TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY
  ICT CITY FERTILISERS INDUSTRIAL AERO SPACE AERO SPACE
CHEMICALS INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIES
WATER FOR IRON AND PETRO HITECH HITECH HITECH
PRODUCTION STEEL CHEMICALS SERVICES SERVICES SERVICES
OIL & GAS FERTILISERS MODERNISE MODERNISE NANO & BIO NANO & BIO
(REFINERY) INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIES TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY
ICT OIL & GAS IRON & ELECTRONICS MICRO MICRO
BUSINESS (PIPE LINE) STEEL ELECTRONICS ELECTRONICS
PUBLIC R&D & R&D & R&D & R&D & R&D &
SERVICE INNOVATION INNOVATION INNOVATION INNOVATION INNOVATION
REFORM
ICT INFRASTRUCTURE
HEALTH SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT (EDUCATION)
RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
NDP 1 NDP 2 NDP 3 NDP 4 NDP 5 NDP 6

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 IMPLEMENTATION
CNDPF-NDPs, SIPS, LGDPs, GOVERNMENT
BUDGET
OTHER PLANS
Financing Vision – sources of financing will include;
tax and non-tax revenues, PPPs, concessional
loans and grants, revenue from oil and gas,
borrowing from domestic and international markets.

Other sources include; alternative financing

mechanisms to access significant funds from
commercial and investment banks at concessional
terms for front-loading infrastructure development

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Contributions to improve these
thoughts are welcome

Thank you for your kind

attention!
For God and My Country
npa@npa.ug
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