Recent Employment Trends in India and China: An Unfortunate Convergence
Recent Employment Trends in India and China: An Unfortunate Convergence
Recent Employment Trends in India and China: An Unfortunate Convergence
C. P. Chandrasekhar
and
Jayati Ghosh
Asian century?
• Both China and India have large populations covering
substantial and diverse geographical areas, large
economies with even larger potential size.
4
3.39
3.5 3.22
3 2.77
2.5 2.27
2.03 1.97
2
1.5 1.36
1 0.66
0.5
0
Rural Urban
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
1983 1987-88 1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05
Total non-agricultural
employment 2.53 4.66
India: Real wages of regular workers
Average real wages per day of regular workers
(at constant 1993-94 prices)
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Public Sector Private Sector Total
India: Labour productivity in organised manufacturing
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
1981
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2003
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
2000
2002
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
Share of wages in value added
1996-97
1997-98
in organised manufacturing
1998-99
1999-2000
India: Wage share of value added
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-04
India: Real wages in
organised manufacturing
Average real wages in organised manufacturing
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003-
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2003 04
India: Remuneration in self-employment
Per cent Per cent finding this amount of Rs. per month
finding their remunerative
self-
employed
activity 0- 1001- 1501- 2001- 2501- >
remunerative 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3000
Rural males 51.1 12.9 17.5 16.5 11.4 12.9 27.3
Rural females 51.4 34.2 23.5 15.4 8.9 7.2 9.9
Rural persons 51.2 21.2 19.7 16 10.5 10.7 20.5
Urban males 60.9 4.9 8.2 9.9 7.2 12.2 56.5
Urban females 50.9 32.8 20.2 12.6 7.7 8.1 18.3
Urban persons 58.6 10.4 10.6 10.4 7.4 11.5 48.9
Chart 4: Per cent of self-employed workers who consider their own
income remunerative, by income-range considered remunerative
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
<1000
>3000
1000-1500
1500-2000
2000-2500
2500-3000
Rural Males Urban Males Rural Females Urban Females
India: Unemployment rates
Rural India Urban India
800 60
700
50
600
40
500
400 30
300
20
200
10
100
0 0
19811982198319851986198919921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
10 2
5 1
0 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
China: Urban employment
Share of urban employment by type of employer
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1985
1989
1992
1993
1994
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
1978
1990
1991
1995
1996
2000
2005
State owned units Collectives & coops Other private units Self-employed
China: Rural non-agricultural employment
Share of rural employment
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1978
1980
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
1985
1991
1994
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
TVEs Private enterprises Self-employed
China: Annual change in real wages
Units of
Average State- Urban
other
of all owned collective
ownership
units units units
type
1978 6.0 6.2 5.1
1980 6.1 6.0 6.9
1985 5.3 4.8 6.6 22.5
1989 -4.8 -4.6 -6.1 -2.3
1990 9.2 9.7 6.6 8.9
1991 4.0 3.2 5.6 10.5
1992 6.7 7.0 4.1 5.3
1993 7.1 5.7 5.9 7.9
1994 7.7 8.7 0.2 1.5
1995 3.8 0.4 3.7 1.4
1996 3.8 2.6 0.6 1.7
1997 1.1 4.2 1.7 3.2
1998 7.2 6.7 3.1 -1.7
1999 13.1 12.9 9.7 11.0
2000 11.4 10.9 7.6 10.9
2001 15.2 16.2 8.9 9.7
2002 15.5 16.3 12.7 9.9
2003 12.0 12.3 12.2 9.3
2004 10.5 11.1 9.5 8.0
2005 12.8 13.6 13.2 10.4
Unorganised and migrant workers in China
44.0 68.0
66.0
42.0
64.0
40.0
62.0
38.0 60.0
36.0 58.0
56.0
34.0
54.0
32.0
52.0
30.0 50.0