Indian Power Scenario
Indian Power Scenario
Indian Power Scenario
POWER SCENARIO
IN
INDIA
ANIL KUMAR
POWER SCENARIO
Energy Security
EVOLUTION OF POWER SECTOR
POWER SECTOR-AN OVERVIEW
2,24,907 *
Thermal Nuclear
Hydro Renewable
1,32,329
1,24,287
1,18,426
1,07,877
1,05,046
81,171
63,636
42,585
28,448
16,664
9,027
4,653
2,695
1,362
'47 '55 '61 '66 '74 '80 '85 '90 '95 '02 '03 '04 '06 '07 '12
(Projeced)
* includes Likely capacity Addition of 14000
Source: CEA MW from Renewables during 11th plan
period
CENTRAL ELECTRICITY
AUTHORITY COUNTRY’S SHARE OF COAL IN
MINISTRY OF POWER
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
TOTAL POWER GENERATION AND
INSTALLED CAPACITY OVER YEARS
% of Coal based
73 Capacity in Total
71
69 68 Generating Capacity
Source: CEA
MAJOR LEGISLATIVE / POLICY INITIATIVES OF
GOVERNMENT
1998- Electricity Regulatory Commission Act
January 2007- Report submitted by Working Group on Power for 11th Plan
constituted by Planning Commission.
R.E.S.,
NUCLEAR 12195 HYDRO,
4120 8.4% 36198,
2.8% 24.8%
THERMAL
93115
64%
TOTAL IC-1,45,627 MW
CENTRAL ELECTRICITY
AUTHORITY
MINISTRY OF POWER
EVOLUTION OF UNIT SIZE OF
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
COAL BASED POWER PLANTS
National
Grid
30000
30000
25000
22526 23134
15000
10000
5000
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Energy Traded
(Contd. ….)
BENEFITS OF NATIONAL GRID (Contd. ….)
Grid Disturbances
100
80 74
60 53
Nos.
40
20 7
3 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Year Minor Major
Development of Transmission
Voltages Levels
132 kV Highest level at the time of
Independence
Iintroduction of 220 kV in 1960
400 kV in 1977
HVDC back-to-back link in 1989,
500kV, HVDC bi-pole line in 1990
765 kV transmission line from 2000
onwards.
GROWTH OF HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINKS
293,210
197,927 209,072
150,477
119,290
Source: CEA
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN INDIA
Growth Pattern
kWh/year 1000
672 704
613 632
559
348
176
Cont..
MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER SECTOR
High T&D losses, large scale theft and skewed
tariff structure
Slow pace of rural electrification
Inefficient use of electricity by end consumer
Lack of grid discipline
CAPACITY ADDITION PLANNING
FOR 11 AND 12 PLAN
TH TH
10TH PLAN –TARGET AND ACTUAL
CAPACITY ADDITION
(MW)
6
* Thermal -12,114 MW, Hydro – 7,886 MW, Nuclear – 1180 MW
MAJOR REASONS FOR SLIPPAGES FROM 10th PLAN (MW)
Original Plan Additional
Projects-
S.No Major Reasons for Slippage Thermal Nuclear Hydro Thermal
1 Delay in supplies/erection by suppliers/ contractors 2670 220 679 3350
2 Delay in tie-up super critical technology by BHEL (one
unit at Sipat and one at Kahalgaon were replaced by 500 3960
MW units)
3 Non-availability of Gas 1713 1450
4 Delay in award of works mainly in state sector/NLC 1423 222 835
Projects not taken up/Escrow cover not given/financial
5 5278 23
closure not achieved/funds not tied up
6 Delay in clearance/investment decision (Hydro projects) 2391
Hydro Project - delay in environmental clearance,
7 geological surprises, natural calamities, R&R issues, 3155
delay in signing of MoU, Court Cases
8 Law & Order Problems 500 60
Nuclear projects included on best effort basis(otherwise
9 1220
scheduled for XI plan)
10 Adjustment due to change of size - 990 91
Total 14554 220 6507 6969*
GENERATION - STRATEGY
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
15,043 MW
(19%)
PVT SECTOR
36,874 MW
26,783 MW
47%
(34%) Total 78,700 MW
FEASIBLE CAPACITY ADDITION FOR
11th PLAN – 77,070* MW
NUCLEAR, HYDRO,
3,380MW, 4.3% 15,507MW,
20.2%
THERMAL,
58,183MW,
75.5%
Thermal – 58,183 MW
( Coal – 48,609 MW, Gas- 7,293 MW, Lignite- 2,280 MW)
Additional capacity expected : New Renewables – 14,000 MW
: Captive – 12,000 MW
* Feasible capacity as per latest assessment
11TH PLAN TARGET AND STATUS
10th Plan capacity addition only 21,180 MW. About 11,000 MW
slippages due to causes attributable to equipment suppliers and
contractors.
COMBUSTION STAGE
MINISTRY OF POWER
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
14th Plan 0 0 0 0 0 0
Super-critical units in 10th , 11th , 12th
, 13th & 14th Plans
Total Sub 660 MW 800 MW Total Total
critical (nos) (nos) Super MW
MW critical MW
50000 45470
42900
40000
30000
18270
20000
9620
10000 5420 4000
0 0
0
10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan 14th Plan
12th Plan 58485 175095 1164 785 1152 0.99 36.4 278
13th Plan 56500 231595 1542 1028 1507 0.97 36.85 363
14th Plan 72000 303595 2033 1337 1961 0.96 37.3 471
Requirement Of Planning Process
Data of Existing Plants
Outage Rate, Heat Rate, Auxiliary Consumption,
Monthly Energy If Hydro Project, Coal Price
Data,Capacity (MW),Life of the plant,
Capital Cost, Executing Agency
Candidate Projects
Demand data
Load Curves
Hourly demand data of Past one Year
Planning Models In CEA
Integrated System Planning (ISPLAN)
Multysym Model
Thank You