Naseer Ahmad Gillani

FIE
 Glaciers
Depletion

Climate Water
Change Pollution

Threats

Water Siltation
Sharing In
Issues Mega dams

Increasing
Water
Deficit
 CATEGORY AREA (MA)
GEOGRAPHICAL AREA 196.7
AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 74.6
CULTIVATED AREA

IN IVE
54.5

DU R
R
DISPUTED
(IRRIGATED + BARANI)

S
KABUL RIV
ER
TERRITORY
AREA UNDER IRRIGATION
47.0
(BY ALL SOURCES)
ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE
BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED 20.1
AGRICULTURE
r

er
SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 2007-08 ve
Ri

m Riv
r
ve

River
n ab Ri
e v i
Ch Ra

Jhelu
Indus
er
R iv
lej
Sut LEGEND
MOUNTAINS

DESERTS

AREA UNDER
IRRIGATION
AREA THAT
CAN BE BROUGHT
UNDER IRRIGATION

Sindh 3.4 MA
Punjab 3.8 MA
KPK 3.0 MA
ARABIAN SEA
Baloch. 9.9 MA
TOTAL 20.1 MA

(Barren land available if water can be conserved) 5

 Water Availability (Avg 1976-2009) 138.70 MAF
 Water Requirement for the Country with reference to Accord 1991 (117
MAF) Water Availability or used Shortage /
Water Accord Allocation
Province {Avg (1976 -2009)} Excess

Kharif Rabi Total Kharif Rabi Total Value %age

Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 34.16 18.66 52.82 -3.12 -5.6

Sindh 33.94 14.82 48.76 28.95 13.84 42.79 -5.97 -12.2

3.48 2.30 5.78 6.60

Khyber +3.00 (Civil Canal)
+1.80 + 1.20 4.09 2.51 - 3.00 -2.18 -24.8
Pakhtunkhwa
5.28 3.50 8.78 3.60

Balochistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 1.23 0.80 2.03 -1.84 -47.5

Total 77.34 37.01 117.35 68.42 35.81 104.23 -13.12 -11.18

Average Water Availability 2000 – 2010 105 MAF

(Currently Pakistan is suffering from water shortage cycle)
6
 RESERVOIR CAPACITIES (MAF)
LOSS DUE TO
RESERVOIR ORIGINAL PRESENT
SEDIMENTATION
9.69 2.92
TARBELA 6.77
(1976) 30%

5.34 0.80
MANGLA 4.54
(1968) 15%

0.72 0.46
CHASHMA 0.26
(1971) 63%

4.18
TOTAL 15.75 11.57
27%
(Nearly a fourth of the Reservoirs silted; need to construct Diamer Basha
Dam to augment lost storage)
7
 NEW STORAGES CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED

UNDER IMPLEMENTATION/READY FOR EXECUTION (MAF)

MANGLA DAM RAISING – AJK 2.88
(Substantially Completed; to be test filled in 2010)
SATPARA DAM 0.05
(Completion in Dec-2010)
GOMAL ZAM – FATA 0.89
(Completion in Dec-2010)

KURRAM TANGI – FATA (To be started 2011) 0.90

DIAMER-BHASHA – GB/KPK 6.40
(To be started in 2011)

SMALL/MEDIUM DAMS (Phase-I&II) 4.90

Total: 13.62
8
 Stand alone
 Integrated
 State
 Public
 Society
 local
 Conflict
 Disturbance
 Law & Order
 Institutional Collapse
 Revolution
 War
 Scarcity
 Prestige
 Independence
 Sovereignty
 Economics
 Development
 Poverty
 Hunger
 Survival
 Survival
 MDGs
 PRSP
 life
 Equity

 Sovereignty

 sustainability

water for All
 97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water
caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining
1%, 20% cannot be captured – inaccessible.
 Remaining fresh water globally available is only
0.8% and is finite.
 This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is
uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in
abundance.

43,659 BCM ÷ 6.5 billion people = 6,716 m 3/person

 Problem: Variability in space and time – rain forest

on one hand and desert on other.
Regional Perspective

South East Asia

Total water availability is 6,698 BCM

i.e. 15.3% of the world water
resources against 8.6% of world
population (516 million).
Per capita water availability is 12,980
m 3.
Regional Perspective cont…

South West Asia

90% of population lives under water stress

conditions – uses 10% more water than fresh
water available. Massive desalinization.
Regional Perspective cont…

North East Asia

Total water availability is 3,351 BCM i.e. 7.7% of

world water against 25% of world population. Per
capita water availability is 2,221 m 3. Country wise
water availability, Mongolia 138,400 m 3/capita;
Japan 3,125 m 3/capita; R. Korea 2,389 m 3/capita
and China 2,152 m 3/capita.
Regional Perspective cont…

South Asia

Total water availability 3,900 BCM/year i.e. only 9% of

world water against 25% of world population. Per capita
water availability is 2,600 m 3/person. India has 1/6 th of
world population and 1/25 th water resources i.e. 1,746 BCM
with average of 1,740 m 3/person but the variability is
extensive. In Brahmaputra – Barak Basin per capita water
availability is 13,400 m 3 to about only 300 m 3 in the
Sabarmati Basin in western part of India.
Pakistan Perspective
Average rainfall

Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid countries

– over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250
mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm. The
population and economy are heavily dependent
on an annual influx into Indus River System of
about 154.88 MAF of water mostly derived from
snow and glacier melt.
• Surface Water 154.88 MAF
• Ground Water:
– Total Area 39.5 Million Acres
– Saline 24.7 Million Acres
– Fresh Water 14.8 Million Acres
– Total Quantity Available 59 MAF
– Present Extraction 50 MAF
– Balance 9 MAF (economic limit)

22
 SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL
HEAD WITHDRAWALS
1962-63 TO 2002-03 (MAF)
PRE- POST- POST ADDITIONAL
MANGLA MANGLA TARBELA WATER AFTER
SEASON
(1962-67) (1967-76) (1976-2003) MANGLA &
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE TARBELA

KHARIF 62.38 65.02 67.77 5.39 8.6%

RABI 28.0 30.78 36.80 8.80 31.4%

TOTAL 90.38 95.80 104.57 14.19 15.7%

23
 23 23
10000 225
0 0

9000 216.8
22 22

0 POPULATION 0
8000 GROWTH
21 21

0 0
7000
20 178 20
3

6000 0 0
PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M)

CANAL DIVERSIONS (MAF)

POPULATION ( MILLIONS)
19 5650 m3 19
POPULATION ( MILLIONS)

5000 (1951)
0 PE 0
AV

18 138 18
R
AI

4000
CA
LA

AFTER
0 0
PI
BI

TARBELA
TA
LI
TY

3000 17 106 17

0 104 0
AFTER 98.
2000 16 MANGLA 6 16

0 WATER 0
AFTER
1000 TREATY
SHORT
15 COUNTRY 15
BEFORE 885 m3
0 TREATY 1350 m3 2020 0
0
2002 550 m3
14 1700 m3 2025 14
INDEPENDENCE 1992
0 0
1000 m3
13 2012 13

0 0
1951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2002 2012 2020 2025
12 YEARS 12
24
0 0
 India 93% • Korea 46%
 Pakistan 90%
 China
• USA 42%
87%
 Egypt 85%
• Germany 20%
 Italy 59% • France 15%
 Japan 50% • UK 3%

25
1,300,000 liters/person/year
(i.e. 3356 liters/day which is 70 times more
than 50 liter/person/day for domestic
purposes)

• Water requirement to produce one

loaf - 550 liters
(10 times more than 50/liters/person/day)

• Water required to produce 100 grams

of beef - 7,000 liters
(140 times more than 50/liters/person/day)
26
Pakistan’s dependence on single river system is
highly vulnerable and has little flexibility as
compared to most of the countries enjoyed by
virtue of multiple river basins and diversity of
water resources. If the water/sediment/salt system
of the Indus Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it –
and unfortunately we are very close to it.

27
There is no additional water to be injected
into the system and there is no feasible
intervention which would enable Pakistan to
mobilize appreciable more water that it now
uses. Pakistan uses more than 90% of water
for irrigation. Non-agricultural water uses
are going to increase manifold in future.

28
 (INCREASE OF 6 MAF)

(INCREASE OF 13 MAF) (DECREASE OF 3

MAF)
29
 Total brought into the System 33.0 M. Tons
 Total Salt deposited in Indus

Basin Irrigation System 24.0 M. Tons

 Wash out of System 9.0 M. Tons
 Salt deposited in Punjab 13.6 M. Tons
 Salt deposited in Sindh 10.4 M. Tons

30
 Canada 8.72 kg/ m3
 USA 1.56 kg/ m3
 China 0.82 kg/ m3
 India 0.39 kg/ m3
 Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m3

31
 France 7.60 T/ha
 Egypt 5.99 T/ha
 Saudi Arabia 5.36 T/ha
 Punjab (India) 4.80 T/ha
 Punjab (Pak) 2.30 T/ha
 Pakistan (Average) 2.24 T/ha

32
 World (Average) 8.60 US$
 Developed Countries 30-40 US$
 Malaysia 10 US$
 Pakistan 0.34 US$

33
 America 6,150 m 3/person
 Australia 5,000 m 3/person
 Pakistan 132 m 3/person

34
 Egypt (Aswan) 1,000 days (Niles)
 America 900 days (Colorado)
 Australia 600 days
 South Africa 500 days (Orange River)
 India 120 to 220 days
 Pakistan 30 days

35
 Upto April 2008, 1,017 MAF of water has
gone to the sea unutilized over the last 30
years which is equivalent to 10 years of canal
withdrawals. In monitory terms, the value of
unutilized water is US$ 149 billion after
deducting 300 MAF required for
environmental purposes.

 For better water management, 40% of total

water availability is required for storage,
Pakistan’s storage capacity is only about 7%
of total available water.
Points for Urgent Attention

 Climate Change

 Indus Waters Treaty

 Transboundary pollution

 Pakistan should demand minimum environmental flows

for eastern rivers to protect biodiversity.
 Kabul River contributes 21 MAF

 Pakistan needs both software and hardware solutions for

future water management.
 GOAL 1: Promote water as a key part of
sustainable national development.

 GOAL 2: Address critical development

challenges.

 GOAL 3: Reinforce knowledge sharing and

communications.

 GOAL 4: Build a more effective participation

 Total Completed Large Dams 4,291 Nos.
 Presently under Construction Dams 676 Nos.
 Total Existing Storage Capacity 323 BCM
 Additional Storage required by 2050 180 BCM
 Additional Dams to be constructed
by the year 2050 2,500 Nos.
 Total Hydro Power Developed 13,000 MW
 Total Potential Available 84,000 MW

 China has constructed 84,000 dams since 1949 out of

which 24,000 are large dams.

42