Palisade Risk ASQVT1
Palisade Risk ASQVT1
Palisade Risk ASQVT1
Agenda
Palisade Corporation Overview
What is risk?
Using Excel modeling to better understand
how risk impacts our work
Palisade Corporation
Continuity and longevity:
Palisade Corporation is now in its 28th year as a provider of general
purpose quantitative decision-making tools and services, boasting the
same core development team since the initial release of @RISK:
World Headquarters:
Palisade Europe:
London, England
Palisade Asia-Pacific:
Sydney, Australia
Palisade LTA:
Palisade Japan:
Tokyo, Japan
DecisionTools Suite
Integrated risk and decision analytics
All products add-in to Excel & include XDK
@RISK Simulation
RISKOptimizer and Evolver Optimization
PrecisionTree Decision Tree analysis
NeuralTools Neural network prediction
StatTools Statistical analytics
TopRank Sensitivity Analysis
RISKOptimizer - Functionality
Included with @RISK Industrial and DecisionTools
Suite Industrial
Combines @RISKs Monte Carlo simulation with
genetic-algorithm based optimization
Allows for optimization of aspects of a distributed
objective and solving of complex non-linear models
More robust than a deterministic optimization
Customers originally combined @RISK and Excels
Solver for stochastic optimization
RISKOptimizer - Applications
Portfolio optimization and allocation
Project selection
Capacity planning and production optimization
Scheduling (job shop, manpower)
Bidding
Inventory management
Prototyping/component interaction
PrecisionTree - Functionality
Decision trees can be built directly in Excel
Allows for large-scale options models to be built over
underlying models
Evaluate tree by standard tree calc, objective function,
worksheet calc, macro, etc.
Can be combined with @RISK for stochastic decision
tree analysis
Customers originally combined @RISK and DPL/DATA
PrecisionTree - Applications
Real Options
Exploration/Production
Game theory
Structural integrity planning
Resource management
Classification/evaluation
Diagnosis/treatment
NeuralTools - Functionality
Palisades first product to truly meld qualitative and
quantitative analysis via Neural networks
Offers multiple neural network types and BestNet
search to determine best network
Requires no neural network expertise
Verifies its own results with instant LiveUpdates
Analyze categorical data in concert with statistics
LiveUpdate works with RISKOptimizer to find optimal
answers to questions based on your network
NeuralTools - Applications
Credit scoring/loan underwriting
Market pricing/prediction (energy, etc.)
Environmental analysis
Fraud notification
Counter-terrorism
Medical diagnosis/treatment
Drug efficacy
StatTools
Collection of statistical processes in Excel for data
analysis without leaving the spreadsheet
Forecasting & Regression
ANOVA/Correlation/covariance
Non-parametric tests
Much more
Replaces statistical processes identified by our clients
as unstable or inaccurate in Excel
Supports up to 16 million data points/variable
Created Excel 2007 before 2007 existed!
XDK for custom function creation
TopRank
Utility for sensitivity analysis in Excel
Determine which model inputs drive volatility
Can be used on *any* Excel model
Cut down on model-building time by identifying the
factors that require distributions for simulation
Risk analysis and mitigation in moments as well as
elimination of supposed risks
Questions?
Dave Bristol
dbristol@palisade.com
802-876-7906