Approach and Methodology
Approach and Methodology
Approach and Methodology
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1 Technology roadmaps relevant to this study include EPRI, 1999a; and Info-
Communications Development Authority of Singapore, 2000.
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6 Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
that goes from today to that future” (Dewar, 2002), its goal being to
provide a self-consistent future world with a credible narrative lead-
ing to a plausible end point. Together, several scenarios span a space
that is considered likely to contain the actual future state, although
any individual scenario is by itself unlikely to be realized.
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2 Beginning in the late 1960s, Royal Dutch/Shell pioneered the use of scenarios in
these ways for business planning. For accounts of the Royal Dutch/Shell experience,
see Wack, 1985; Schwartz, 1991; and Van der Heijden, 1996. Also see Smil, 2000.
Approach and Methodology 7
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3 Examples include reports from the Computer Science and Telecommunications
Board, 2001a, 2001b, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, and 1988; Anderson et al., 2000; Hundley
et al., 2000; Kahan, 1993; and Robinson, 1978.
4 See, for example, Negroponte, 1995; Gates, Myhrvold, and Rinearson, 1996; Mitchell,
1997; Dertouzos, 1998; Norman, 1998; and Kurzweil, 1998. A more complete list of
recent trade books about digital technology can be found at http://www.nytimes.
com/books/specials/digital.html (last accessed August 30, 2002).
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what people expect it to do—and not something else—despite environmental
disruption, human user and operator errors, and attacks by hostile parties.”
6 Formerly the Electric Power Research Institute.
7 Chapter Four provides the relevant references.
10 Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
The scenario projections through 2021 are entirely our own respon-
sibility, but they were aided by and compared with projections in the
AEO 2002 and in shorter-term industry forecasts.8 The assumptions
underlying the scenarios are described in the following chapter and
in greater detail in Appendix A. Uncertainties are largely built into
the scenario structure—for example, each scenario makes its own as-
sumptions about consumers’ use of e-commerce two decades from
now. Technology availability thus leads to very different conse-
quences in different scenarios.
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8 Good starting places for seeking such industry forecasts are Cyberatlas, at
http://cyberatlas.internet.com, and eMarketer, at http://www.emarketer.com.
Another useful forecast through 2010 is in Sanchez et al., 1998.