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Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries 4057

model, however, a country will have positive production in all industries because it
will always have a few goods within any industry where its productivity draws are very
high. Letting Y ¼ Swj L j denote worldwide income, then the trade balance conditions
are Sim Djm vm Y ¼ w j L j (value of sales equal value of purchases for country j). These
conditions determine the equilibrium wages w1, . . ., wN.
How is the wage in a country affected by acquiring HP in an industry? If a country had a
choice, in which industry would achieving collective action have the greatest impact on
wages?23 These are key questions for IP. Note that we have assumed that there are no deep
sources of comparative advantage, so this would not be an issue in this choice. Then it seems
reasonable that countries would be able to increase wages more by focusing their efforts in
industries that have higher complexity, are larger (or have higher demand), and have a
lower prevalence: higher complexity means that there is more to gain from collective
action, while larger demand combined with low prevalence implies higher rents. Under
some conditions, one can in fact prove this result. In particular, assume that countries 1
and 2 are identical except that they have HP in industries 1 and 2, respectively, with no
HP in the rest of industries (i.e., country 1 has HP only in industry 1 and country 2 has
HP only in industry 2 and ^xj1 ¼ ^xj2 for all j ¼ 3, . . ., N ). Then one can show that the
wage in country 1 is higher than in country 2 if x1 > x2 or if v1 > v2. Also, assuming that
x1 ¼ x2 and v1 ¼ v2, then w1 > w2 if s1 < s2 (see Appendix).24
We have assumed thus far that there are no differences in industry-level productiv-
ity across countries. If this were not the case, then it is clear that a country may want to
go against its latent comparative advantage and specialize in goods with combinations
of high complexity, high demand, and low prevalence. Thus, this model may be suit-
able to think about IP, although it is important to note that trade protection is not an
effective policy in this framework.

2.3.2 Relation of the model to some recent contributions


We now show how to place some recent arguments for IP in the context of this simple
analytical framework. Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2006) argue that the varied eco-
nomic performance of different countries is partly explained by the goods that they pro-
duce. Other things equal (including physical and human capital stocks), countries that
specialize in what they call “rich country goods” are richer. Their explanation is that such
goods provide more opportunities for learning by doing (similar to Young, 1991) and for
technological and institutional upgrading that ultimately benefits the whole economy.
The model presented here can capture this notion in a slightly different way. In this
model we may talk about “rich country industries” as ones that are more complex have
higher worldwide demand or exhibit lower prevalence. Countries that achieve HP in
these industries would be able to sustain higher income levels, and getting there would
entail higher growth rates.

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