Trump 5

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.
com>
Senttime: 06/17/201601:12:04PM
To: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Subject: Re:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun17,2016,at4:11PM,Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>wrote:
FranciscoaskedthatJoshbeputonyourlist.Isaidno.
From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,June17,20164:02PM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-putin-usa-idUSKCN0Z31G4
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpower
andhewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
Putin'scommentsfollowarockyperiodinU.S.-Russiarelations,whichhavebeenunderminedbydisagreementsover
issuessuchasUkraineandSyria.
PutinreiteratedcriticismofwhathesaidwasthemisguidedroleoftheUnitedStatesinUkraine'saffairsandsaidhe
opposedwhathecastasU.S.effortstopreventRussiarepairingitsrelationswiththeEuropeanUnion.
Buthehadsomepositivewordstoo.
"Americaisagreatpower-todayprobablytheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthat,"PutinsaidattheStPetersburg
InternationalEconomicForum."WewanttoandarereadytoworkwiththeUnitedStates."
AskedaboutDonaldTrump,PutinappearedtoplaydownpositivecommentshehadmadeabouttheRepublican
contenderinthepast,sayingthosehadbeenmisinterpreted.
InDecember,PutindescribedTrumpas"veryflamboyant","verytalented"and"anabsoluteleaderinthepresidential
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbe
pleasedtoseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
ButonFridayPutinsaidhehadonlydescribedTrumpas"flamboyant".
"Heis,isn'the?"saidPutinwithasmile."Ididnotgiveanyotherassessmentofhim."
PutinsaidhewelcomedTrump'sdesiretorestoreU.S.-Russiaties."What'swrongwiththat?"Putinasked,drawing
applausefromtheaudience.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalso
emphasizedhis"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhite
House.
PutinsaidhewasgratefulfortheattentionandrespectBillClintonhadshowntoRussiaandPutinpersonally.
HehadlesstosayaboutHillaryClintonthough,sayinghehadneverworkedwithherdirectly.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBush
andPolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/14/201609:43:12AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Update:"RussiangovernmentHACKERSpenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTRUMP,"washingtonpost.com,6/14
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June14,20169:43AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Update:"RussiangovernmentHACKERSpenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTRUMP,"washingtonpost.com,6/14
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/16/201604:27:50PM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Really,Trenin-Lukyanov?RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeoneforgotthepassword-TheWashingtonPost
Hmmm...Polozhenieobyazyvaet
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJun16,2016,at6:50PM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/russias-unusual-response-to-
charges-it-hacked-research-on-trump/
RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybe
someoneforgotthepassword
<imrs.php>
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinduringameetingofASEAN-RussiaBusinessForummembersin
Sochi,Russia,onMay20,2016.(PoolphotobyHostPhotoAgencyviaEPA)
MOSCOWWhenRussiafacesuncomfortableaccusationsfromabroad,theKremlinnormally
lashesbackwithofficialdeclarationsandscornfulcommentsonstatetelevision.
ButwhentheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandcybersecurityexpertstoldTheWashingtonPostthat
Russiangovernmenthackershadstolenanentiredatabaseofoppositionresearchonpresumptive
GOPpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump,officialsheremettheaccusationswithlittlemorethana
simpledenialandashrug.
"Usuallythesekindsofleakstakeplacenotbecausehackersbrokein,but,asanyprofessionalwilltell
you,becausesomeonesimplyforgotthepasswordorsetthesimplepassword123456,"German
Klimenko,Putin'stopInternetadviser,saidinremarkscarriedbytheRIANovostistatenewsagency.
"Well,it'salwayssimplertoexplainthisawayastheintriguesofenemies,ratherthanone'sown
incompetence."
"Iabsolutelyruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentorgovernmentagencieswereinvolvedinthis,"
DmitryPeskov,aspokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutin,toldjournalistsinacurtstatement.
[RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump]
WesternofficialshaveaccusedRussiaofconductingacampaignofhigh-profilehackingattacksthat
haveincludedcyberattacksin2007againstEstonia,a2014assaultonUkraine'spowergridanda
breachoftheWhiteHouse'sunclassifiedemailserverlastyear.Thelatestrevelationsriskedplungingthe
KremlinintothemidstofaheatedU.S.electioncyclethathascapturedtheattentionofaMoscow
eliteeagerforchangeinWashington.
Overtheyears,theKremlinhasgrownusedtobrushingoffthesekindsofaccusations.Reportsof
hackinghavebecome"ubiquitous,"DmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenteranda
formerRussianarmyofficer,saidbytelephone."Idon'tthinkthatit'ssomethingtheywillbereallytalking
muchaboutorworriedabout."
Moststatetelevisionchannels,throughwhichthevastmajorityofRussiansgettheirinformation,didnot
airreportsontheallegations.Someofthefewofficialcomments,postedonlinebyRussiannews
agencies,weredismissive.
WorldViewsnewsletter
Importantstoriesfromaroundtheworld.
RussianofficialshaveaddressedtheU.S.electionssparingly.Putinhasofferedguardedpraise
forTrump,callinghim"lively"and"talented"duringanationallytelevisednewsconferenceinDecember.
But,onthewhole,theRussianleaderhasstayedsilentontheU.S.presidentialrace.
FyodorLukyanov,awell-connectedpoliticalanalystinMoscowandtheeditorofRussiainGlobal
Affairs,aforeignpolicyjournal,saidthatthereisgreatinterestintheU.S.electionsamongRussianelites
andthatmanyseeTrumpaspotentiallyabetterpartnerforRussiathanHillaryClinton.
"Idon'tseewhytheywouldbeinterestedindoingthis,whichwouldjustelectrifythecampaignofthe
Democraticcandidate,"Lukyanovsaid,notingthathewasn'tbriefedonthespecificsofthe
hackingcase."Ithinkinthecaseofthesereportsthatmanypeoplearejustusedtoseeingthescary
ghostofMr.Putin."
Treninechoedthatthought."Iwouldbesuspiciousthatthatwouldbeatargetofimportancetoforeign
intelligence,"hesaid.TheDNCisa"soft"targetcomparedwiththeNationalSecurityCouncil,he
added."Theywouldlikelyspendtheirresourceselsewhere.Thenagain,Idon'tknow."
Readmore:
JustbecauseRussianslikePutindoesntmeantheyrehappyabouttheeconomy
ThePutin-Trumpkissbeingsharedaroundtheworld
Thenot-completely-crazytheorythatRussialeakedthePanamaPapers
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/16/201603:50:10PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comEugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: Really,Trenin-Lukyanov?RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeoneforgotthepassword-TheWashingtonPost
http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/russias-unusual-response-to-charges-it-hacked-
research-on-trump/
RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeone
forgotthepassword
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinduringameetingofASEAN-RussiaBusinessForummembersinSochi,Russia,onMay
20,2016.(PoolphotobyHostPhotoAgencyviaEPA)
MOSCOWWhenRussiafacesuncomfortableaccusationsfromabroad,theKremlinnormallylashesbackwithofficial
declarationsandscornfulcommentsonstatetelevision.
ButwhentheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandcybersecurityexpertstoldTheWashingtonPostthatRussian
governmenthackershadstolenanentiredatabaseofoppositionresearchonpresumptiveGOPpresidential
nomineeDonaldTrump,officialsheremettheaccusationswithlittlemorethanasimpledenialandashrug.
"Usuallythesekindsofleakstakeplacenotbecausehackersbrokein,but,asanyprofessionalwilltellyou,because
someonesimplyforgotthepasswordorsetthesimplepassword123456,"GermanKlimenko,Putin'stopInternet
adviser,saidinremarkscarriedbytheRIANovostistatenewsagency."Well,it'salwayssimplertoexplainthisawayasthe
intriguesofenemies,ratherthanone'sownincompetence."
"Iabsolutelyruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentorgovernmentagencieswereinvolvedinthis,"DmitryPeskov,a
spokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutin,toldjournalistsinacurtstatement.
[RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump]
WesternofficialshaveaccusedRussiaofconductingacampaignofhigh-profilehackingattacksthathaveincluded
cyberattacksin2007againstEstonia,a2014assaultonUkraine'spowergridandabreachoftheWhiteHouse's
unclassifiedemailserverlastyear.ThelatestrevelationsriskedplungingtheKremlinintothemidstofaheated
U.S.electioncyclethathascapturedtheattentionofaMoscoweliteeagerforchangeinWashington.
Overtheyears,theKremlinhasgrownusedtobrushingoffthesekindsofaccusations.Reportsofhackinghavebecome
"ubiquitous,"DmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenterandaformerRussianarmyofficer,saidbytelephone.
"Idon'tthinkthatit'ssomethingtheywillbereallytalkingmuchaboutorworriedabout."
Moststatetelevisionchannels,throughwhichthevastmajorityofRussiansgettheirinformation,didnotairreportsonthe
allegations.Someofthefewofficialcomments,postedonlinebyRussiannewsagencies,weredismissive.
WorldViewsnewsletter
Importantstoriesfromaroundtheworld.
RussianofficialshaveaddressedtheU.S.electionssparingly.PutinhasofferedguardedpraiseforTrump,callinghim"lively"
and"talented"duringanationallytelevisednewsconferenceinDecember.But,onthewhole,theRussianleaderhasstayed
silentontheU.S.presidentialrace.
FyodorLukyanov,awell-connectedpoliticalanalystinMoscowandtheeditorofRussiainGlobalAffairs,aforeignpolicy
journal,saidthatthereisgreatinterestintheU.S.electionsamongRussianelitesandthatmanyseeTrumpaspotentiallya
betterpartnerforRussiathanHillaryClinton.
"Idon'tseewhytheywouldbeinterestedindoingthis,whichwouldjustelectrifythecampaignoftheDemocratic
candidate,"Lukyanovsaid,notingthathewasn'tbriefedonthespecificsofthehackingcase."Ithinkinthecaseofthese
reportsthatmanypeoplearejustusedtoseeingthescaryghostofMr.Putin."
Treninechoedthatthought."Iwouldbesuspiciousthatthatwouldbeatargetofimportancetoforeignintelligence,"hesaid.
TheDNCisa"soft"targetcomparedwiththeNationalSecurityCouncil,headded."Theywouldlikelyspendtheir
resourceselsewhere.Thenagain,Idon'tknow."
Readmore:
JustbecauseRussianslikePutindoesntmeantheyrehappyabouttheeconomy
ThePutin-Trumpkissbeingsharedaroundtheworld
Thenot-completely-crazytheorythatRussialeakedthePanamaPapers
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/11/201612:56:56PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:THEUSESTABLISHMENTPLANSWARTOSTOPTRUMP|Katehonthinktank.Geopolitics&Tradition
Wait,what??Justgetridofthe"establishment"andgeopoliticsGOESAWAY??Givemeabreak,Dugi
n.Evenunderyourowntwisted-asslogic,thatmakesnosense!!!
SentfrommyiPhone
>OnJun11,2016,at11:16AM,Bobwrote:
>
>
>http://katehon.com/directives/us-establishment-plans-war-stop-trump
>
>
>SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/17/201601:02:00PM
To: ChristopherBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
BCc: ottorc@state.gov
Subject: PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerand
hewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleased
toseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasized
his"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushand
PolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/17/201601:11:10PM
Subject: RE:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
FranciscoaskedthatJoshbeputonyourlist.Isaidno.
From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-putin-usa-idUSKCN0Z31G4
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerandhewas
readytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
Putin'scommentsfollowarockyperiodinU.S.-Russiarelations,whichhavebeenunderminedbydisagreementsoverissuessuch
asUkraineandSyria.
PutinreiteratedcriticismofwhathesaidwasthemisguidedroleoftheUnitedStatesinUkraine'saffairsandsaidheopposedwhat
hecastasU.S.effortstopreventRussiarepairingitsrelationswiththeEuropeanUnion.
"Americaisagreatpower-todayprobablytheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthat,"PutinsaidattheStPetersburgInternational
EconomicForum."WewanttoandarereadytoworkwiththeUnitedStates."
AskedaboutDonaldTrump,PutinappearedtoplaydownpositivecommentshehadmadeabouttheRepublicancontenderinthe
past,sayingthosehadbeenmisinterpreted.
InDecember,PutindescribedTrumpas"veryflamboyant","verytalented"and"anabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleasedtosee
TrumpintheWhiteHouse.
PutinsaidhewelcomedTrump'sdesiretorestoreU.S.-Russiaties."What'swrongwiththat?"Putinasked,drawingapplausefrom
theaudience.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasizedhis"warm
relations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushandPolina
DevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 06/14/201608:53:01AM
Subject: FW:"NATOtosendtroopstoDETERRussia,someallieswantMORE,"reuters.com,6/14
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June14,20168:53AM
Subject:"NATOtosendtroopstoDETERRussia,someallieswantMORE,"reuters.com,6/14
And:AsfightingineastESCALATES,confusionovernumberofcasualties,kyivpost.com,6/14
ThesituationonthefrontlineineasternUkraineiscontinuingtodeterioratesharply,withKremlin
backedfightersopeningfireonUkrainianfightersmorethan200times[!]overthelastfivedays
And:POROSHENKOsaysGENERALMOBOLIZATIONPLANmustbepolishedtobereadyforRussias
FULLSCALEINVASION,unian.info,6/14
And:Russianfined150,000EurosoverEuro2016VIOLENCE[inFrance],politico.eu,6/14
And:FrancemayDEPORTfansasRussiaispenalizedoversoccerhooligans,washingtonpost.com,
6/14
And:Explainer:RussiasSOCCERHOOLIGANproblem,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27795560.html
And:ForeignpolicyplanshowsRIFTinGOP,WallStreetJournal,6/10,p.A6
HouseRepublicanleadersoutlinedaforeignpolicyagendaThursdaythaturgesadirectconfrontation
withRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,oneofseveralwaysthedocumentBREAKSwiththeapproach
ofpresumptiveGOPpresidentialnomineeDonaldTRUMP.
And:AnotherRussianUkrainianprisonerSWAPtakesplace:PlanewithSoloshenko,Afanasyevlands
atBoryspilairport[inKyiv]:Swapoperationover,unian.info,6/14
And:MoreontheinvestigationintotheassassinsofBorisNEMTSOV:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2016/06/14/1522897.html
Senttime: 06/17/201609:28:47AM
Subject: FW:"USsaysitwillstayinBLACKSEAdespiteRussianWARNINGs,"reuters.com,6/17
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,June17,20169:28AM
Subject:"USsaysitwillstayinBLACKSEAdespiteRussianWARNINGs,"reuters.com,6/17
And:EUextendsSANCTIONSonRussiaannexedCRIMEAuntilmid2017,reuters.com,6/17
And:Putin[inspeechtoSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum]says[he]acceptsUSissole
SUPERPOWER,dilutesTRUMPPRAISE,reuters.com,6/17
And:IAAF[InternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations]willNOTliftthebanonRussiantrack
athletesintimeforRiogames,washingtonpost.com,6/17
And:RussianhooligansattackSPANISHtouristsoutsideCologneCathedral,telegraph.co.uk,6/17
And:The[Russiansoccerhoodlums]takenintocustodyinColognearethreatenedwithuptoten
yearsinprison,http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2016/06/17/1524102.html
And:PutinsrelianceonAMERICANCOMMERCEhasneverbeengreater,blolomberg.com,6/16
And:PutinJOKESaboutthearrestedRussiansoccerhooligans:Putinquestionspolicereportsof
footballfanviolence,themsocowtimes.com,6/17
Putinsaidthathedidntunderstandhow200Russianfootballfanscouldbeatupthousandsof
Englishsupporters.
And:PutinhasproposedthatcriminalresponsibilitybeintroducedforSILOVIKIwhoinfringethe
rightsofentrepreneurs,http://newsru.com.russia/17jun2016/siloviki_print.html
And:NAVALNYhasdemandedoftheRussianpresidentandtheCentralElectionCommitteethatthe
PartyofProgressbeallowedtocompeteinthejustannounced2016Dumaelections,
http://newsru.com/russia.17jun2016/navalny_print.html
And:KremlinspropagandainCZECHREPUBLICplayslonggametosowdistrustinEU,
http://www.rferol.org/articleprintview/27802234.html
And:KYIVanxiousBREXITmightweakenEUsupportforUkraine,unian.info,6/17
Senttime: 06/17/201601:02:16PM
To: JohnP.Williams<williamsjp@state.gov>FishelE@state.gov
Subject: PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerand
hewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleased
toseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasized
his"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushand
PolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 06/13/201601:20:16PM
FW:["VLADBREAKINGBAD"MEETS"NYTGOINGDURANTYRETRO"][MB-PB-ABONBADVLAD]Euro2016:150Russians
Subject: 'behind'violenceRussianOSCEAppointeeImplicatedinRussiasFakeCrimeaReferendum&WarPropagandalotsmore.[TWOSTORIESIN
THENYT:Bord...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,June13,201610:39AM
Subject:Fwd:["VLADBREAKINGBAD"MEETS"NYTGOINGDURANTYRETRO"][MB-PB-ABONBADVLAD]Euro2016:150Russians
'behind'violenceRussianOSCEAppointeeImplicatedinRussiasFakeCrimeaReferendum&WarPropagandalotsmore.[TWO
STORIESINTHENYT:Bord...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jun13,2016at1:37PM
Subject:Fwd:["VLADBREAKINGBAD"MEETS"NYTGOINGDURANTYRETRO"][MB-PB-ABONBADVLAD]
Euro2016:150Russians'behind'violenceRussianOSCEAppointeeImplicatedinRussiasFakeCrimeaReferendum&War
Propagandalotsmore.[TWOSTORIESINTHENYT:Borderingonthe'Ukraino-phobic'][InfirstNYTpiece,authorseems
toregrettherewasnoviolenceatLGBTeventinKyivsecond[Reuters/NYT]storyseemsintentonpushing'sharksandpiranhas
inUApolitics'narrative]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jun13,2016at8:17AM
Subject:Euro2016:150Russians'behind'violence-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36515213
Euro2016:150Russians'behind'violence
Getty
Images
Agroupof"well-trained"RussianswerebehindtheviolencethateruptedinMarseillewhenRussia
playedEnglandinEuro2016,prosecutorshavesaid.
Tenpeople-sixBritons,threeFrenchandanAustrian-faceanimmediatetrial,MarseilleprosecutorBriceRobin
said.
Describingsome150Russiansashighlyviolentand"wellprepared",hesaidtheywereabletoevadearrest.
JusttwoRussianshavebeenarrested,bothforapitchinvasion.
About35peoplehavebeeninjured,fourseriously,followingthreedaysofclashesinthecity.
Policedeployedteargastodispersefootballfansonanumberofoccasions,andtherewerealsoclashesinthe
stadiumonSaturdayfollowingEngland's1-1Euro2016drawwithRussia,afterRussiafansappearedtorushat
Englandsupporters.
'Wellprepared'
MrRobintoldanewsconference:"Thesepeople[theRussians]werewellpreparedforultra-rapid,ultra-violent
action."
Thiswaswhatmadeitdifficulttoarrestthem,theprosecutor,addingthathedidnotthinktheRussianhooliganswere
"professional"butthey"wereextreme".
MrRobinsaidimageswerebeinganalysedatMarseille'surbansurveillancecentre.
Hesaidpoliceofficersarelookingatthesepicturestoidentifywiththeirforeigncolleagues-RussianandEnglish
footballspotters-toseeifthesepeoplecanbeidentified.
AssistantChiefConstableMarkRoberts,theNationalPoliceChiefs'Councilleadforfootballpolicing,hasappealed
forfanswiththeirowncameraphonefootagetocontactcrime-fightingcharityCrimestoppers.
HetoldtheGuardian:"OuroriginalintentionwastousethiskindofevidenceagainstEnglandtroublemakers,butwe
areequallyanxioustoseeRussianhooligansbroughttobookandwillcooperatefullywithFrenchauthorities
investigatingthedisturbances."
Mostofthe35peoplewhowereinjuredinthefightingwereEnglish,MrRobinsaid,addingthattwoRussian
nationalswerebeingexpelledfromthecountry.
A16-year-oldBritonwasamongthosearrestedandchargedwiththrowingbottlesduringviolenceinMarseille.
MrRobinsaidtheBritishteenagerwasincustodyandthathehadpersonallyspokentotournamentorganisersUefa
tohavehisfutureticketscancelled.
GettyImagesSkirmishesinvolvingEnglandfansbrokeoutaheadofthegameinthecity'sportarea
Twentypeoplehavebeenarrestedinconnectionwiththeviolence.
Therewere12,000RussianfansinMarseillewhotravelledtothecitybytrain,MrRobinsaid.
UefahasbeeninvestigatingafterRussiasupportersappearedtorushatEnglandfansinthestadiumaftertheirdraw
onSaturday.
Ithasthreatenedtobanbothteamsifthereisfurtherfanviolence.
ItalsoopeneddisciplinaryproceedingsagainsttheRussianFootballUnionforallegedcrowddisturbances,racist
behaviourandthesettingoffoffireworksbyitsfansduringthegameonSaturdaynight.
WitnessessaidtroublebeganinthestadiumafterflareswereletoffbyRussianfansneartheendofthegame.
Somethenclimbedacrossbarriersdesignedtokeeprivalfansapart.
AnumberofRussiasupportersappearedtokickandpunchfleeingEnglandfans,whowereforcedtoclamberover
fencingtoescape.
PASomeRussiasupportershadsmuggledinflareswhichtheysetoffattheendofthematch
Russia'ssportsministerVitalyMutkohassaidthatUefahad"donetherightthing"tostartadisciplinarycaseagainst
theRussianFootballUnion,R-Sportnewsagencyreported.
ButRussianMPIgorLebedevcriticisedFrenchpoliceandcalledonRussianfootballfansto"keepupthegood
work".
"Iseenothingwrongwithfootballfansfighting.Onthecontrary,welldonetoourboys!Keepupthegoodwork!"he
tweeted.
"WhathappenedinMarseilleandotherFrenchcitiesisnotthefans'fault.Itisdowntothepolice'sinabilityto
organiseandholdsuchevents,"hewroteinaseparatetweetthesameday.
MrLebedevsaidfansneededtobe"protected",adding:"We'lldealwiththemwhentheygethome".
MeanwhileEnglandmanagerRoyHodgsonandcaptainWayneRooneyhaveappealeddirectlytofansto"behave
themselves"followingtheviolence.
"Weareveryconcernedatthethreatnowhangingoverus,"saidHodgson."Wehaveworkedveryhardtogethere
anddesperatelywanttostay.".
Disciplinarymeeting
FrenchInteriorMinisterBernardCazeneuvehasdescribedthedisorderas"unacceptable".
TheFrenchgovernmenthasurgedcitieshostingEuro2016matchestobanalcoholnearvenuesandfanzones
followingtheviolence.
TheUKgovernmenthasofferedtosendextraBritishpoliceaheadofEngland'snextmatchinLensonThursday.
Russia'snextmatchagainstSlovakiawilltakeplaceinLilleonWednesday-thedaybeforeEngland'smatchagainst
Wales,just24milesawayinLens.
Lenshasalreadybannedalcoholfrombeingsoldandfanswithoutticketsforthematchorfanzonehavebeen
toldnottotravel.
SanctionsagainstRussiawillbedecidedatadisciplinarymeetingonTuesday,Uefasaid.
Meanwhile,inaseparateincidentnotrelatedtothedisorderinMarseille,aNorthernIrelandfootballfandiedaftera
fallinNicefollowingtheteam's1-0defeatbyPoland.
DarrenRodgers,25,fromBallymena,fell26ft(8m)overabarrierfromapromenadeontoahardpebblebeachin
thesouthcoastcityintheearlyhoursofMondaymorning,policesaid.
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Euro2016:150Russians'behind'violence-BBCNews[ED:PB'sInterestingtakedeservesattention]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Putinhasonceagaindemonstratedthathecansendinhisterroristsanywherehewantstodisruptandsabotage.Thefineshewill
payareapittanceforthepublicdisplayofhispower.Evenifsomeofhisterroristsgetprisonterms(whichisnotlikely),theywill
bepaidfortheirtimeandaEuropeanprisonisstillsaferthantheDonbasorSyria.
TheEU/UShastogrowthecouragetostanduptoTheWorld'sNumberOneTerroristwithrealsanctions(notthekittensoftones
nowinplace)andsomeuseof(notjustshowof)force.Youcanflashcashallyouwant,butuntilyoustartspendingit,folksdon't
knowifit'sarealwadof$100soraConeyIslandroll.TheworldistakingPutinseriouslywhiletheEU/USareslippinginto
secondplace.
TheworldisfacingaclearandpresentdangerontheorderofHitlerandStalin.PretendingPutincanbeanallyhasallthewisdom
ofthosewhopretendedHitlerwasapassingfadintendingnorealharm.Putinintendstointrudeonpeople'sliveseverywhere,
subjectingthem,directlyorindirectly,tohiswillandcontrol.
HissendingterroristsintotheEuropeanSoccerchampionshipsisnotjustanexampleofhisreachandwillingnesstouseit.It'sa
confirmationofbadthingstocome.It'stheblanketonanunbrokenhorse'sback,togetthehorseusedtohavingsomethingthere.
Pa-tye-khenko,pa-tye-khenko.Next,thesaddleandthentherider.AslongastheEU/USpretendit'sjustabunchofunruly
drunks,theendisinevitable.
ThepenaltyforthisactofterrorismattheEuropeanSoccerChampionshipsshouldbetossingRussiaoutofit.Period.Anything
lesswilljustdrawasoftmeaninglesslinethatPutinwillpushfurtheratwill.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36515213
Subject:RussianOSCEAppointeeImplicatedinRussiasFakeCrimeaReferendum&WarPropaganda::khpg.org
TheEU/USandUNneedtoacceptthefactthattheterm"RussianPeacekeeper"isbydefinitionanoxymoron.Anyinvolvement
byRussianpersonnelwithOSCEorotherobserversmakesasmuchsenseasappointingSSofficerstoprotectsynagoguesin
Hitler'sbehalf.
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465595756
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#868
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,"nestory@juno.com"
<nestory@juno.com>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,SAMO<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,30MORE
RussianOSCEAppointeeImplicatedinRussiasFakeCrimeaReferendum&War
Propaganda
13.06.16|HalyaCoynash
VladislavGrib,recentlyappointedapersonalrepresentativetotheOSCEsChairperson-in-Officewasdirectlyinvolvedin
rubberstampingthescamreferendumusedbyRussiatotrytojustifyitsinvasionandannexationofCrimeain2014.His
newappointmentaspersonalrepresentativeoncombatingracism,xenophobiaanddiscrimination,etc.seems
especiallyinappropriategivenhispartinwarmongeringliesinSeptember2014whichgrosslydistortedinformation
providedbytheOSCEObserverMissioninUkraine.
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465595756
FrenchBankClosesAccountsofRussianDiplomats
TheMoscowTimes
Jun.10201618:21
Atthistime,whiledeputiesoftheNationalAssemblyandtheFrenchSenatearevotingonliftingthesanctionsagainst
Russia,theFrenchbankSocieteGenerale,seeminglyoutoffearfromtheU.S.side,isclosingtheaccountsnotonlyof
Russiancitizens,butRussiandiplomatsaswell,theunnamedsourcesaid,RIANovostireported.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/french-bank-closes-accounts-of-russian-diplomats/571802.html
16:05Jun.12,2016
KremlindeploysmoretankstoeasternUkraine
IntelreportsanotherRussianconvoywithmilitaryhardwaremilitant-heldDonbas
MoreRussianmilitaryhardwareandfuelmaterialsarereportedtohavebeendeployedtothemilitant-occupied
cityofKhartsyzkintheDonetskregion.
"Accordingtointelligence,Russiacontinuestosendmilitaryequipmentandammunitiontothetemporarily
occupiedterritoryineasternUkraine.Theconvoyincludesfivetruckswithammunitionfortanksand122mm
Gradmultiple-launchrocketsystems,railwayplatformscarryingsixtanks,fourinfantryfightingvehicles,three
152-mmself-propelledgunsaswellasfuel,lubricantsandammunition",saidLysenko.
http://uatoday.tv/politics/kremlin-deploys-more-tanks-to-eastern-ukraine-671329.html
RussiaFacingBiggestBrainDraininTwoDecades
TheMoscowTimes
Jun.10201613:47
Some350,000peopleleftRussiain2015,tentimesmorethanfiveyearsago.Manyarehighlytrainedand
lookingforbetterbusinessopportunitiesabroad,thenewspapersaid.
Forty-twopercentofseniormanagerswanttoemigratefromRussia,apollbyheadhuntingcompanyAgentstvoKontakt
revealedTuesday.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-facing-biggest-brain-drain-in-two-decades/571758.html
13:20Jun.6,2016
Russianintelligenceagencyplannedattackon
Kyivdetentioncentre-securityservice
HeadofUkrainianSecurityService(SBU)VasylHrytsakclaimstheRussianMainIntelligenceAgencyplannedto
blowupanSBUdetentioncentreinKyiv.Thisstatementcameduringaspontaneousinspectionofthefacilitywith
theparticipationofUkrainianOmbudswomanValeriyaLutkovskaandProsecutorGeneralYuriyLutsenko.
Hrytsaknotedthedetentioncentreispartofacriminalproceedingconcerningtheplansofattack.Hesaidthe
SBUhasrecordedaconversationprovingtheparticipationofRussia'sintelligenceagency.
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-intelligence-agency-planned-attack-on-kyiv-detention-centre-security-service-
667635.html
RussiasInvisibleChildren
TheunrelievedplightofRussia'shomelessyouth
31May2012
OlgaKhvostunova
Theprevalenceofhomelesschildrenisasocialandculturalphenomenonthatgenerallyarisesduring
periodsofacutesocial,economic,andpoliticalinstability,suchasinternationalmilitaryconflicts,civilwars,
famines,andinthewakeofnaturaldisasters.Inthemodernworld,thisphenomenonismostcommonly
relatedtoeconomiccrisisandtheprevalenceofpoverty,domesticviolence,andchildabuse.Problems
suchasthesecauseguardianstokickchildrenoutorbringaboutchildrenrunningawayvoluntarily.
Acriticalmassofhomelesschildrenis,unequivocally,asymptomoferosionateverylevelofsociety,from
familystructurestomajorgovernmentinstitutions.Expertsattestthatitmarginalizesadultsandchildrenthat
liveoutsideofthestatusquo.Oneofitsgreatestdangersisthatchildrenwholiveonthestreets,surviving
offmoneytheyusuallyacquireillegally,tendtoformsubcultures,developingworldviewsandvaluesthat
contradicttraditionalnorms.
It'simpossibletosayforsurehowmanychildrenliveonthestreetsofRussia,sinceevenofficialestimates
varygreatlyfrom1millionto4-5million(basedonthedatafromtheMinistryofEducation,Ministryof
InternalAffairs,andvariousNGOs).AccordingtotheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,in2010,2.17%of
Russianchildrenwerehomeless,whichwouldputthenumberat600thousand.Comparedto2001,the
numberhasdoubledinthepasttenyearsalone.
HomelesschildrenarenotnewforRussia.AgreatnumberofthemfloodedthestreetsofRussiancities
duringtheFirstWorldWar(1914-18).TheproblemonlygrewworseaftertheRussianRevolutionof1917,
andfurtherdeterioratedduringthecivilwar(1917-23).Accordingtovariousestimates,intheearly1920s,
therewerebetween4.5and7millionhomelesschildreninRussia.
http://imrussia.org/en/society/245-besprizorniki
TwobodieswithRussianarmychevronsfoundinLuhanskregion
TheEvacuation200bodyrecoverymissionundertheArmedForcesofUkrainehasfoundtheremainsoftwosoldierswithRussianarmy
chevronsnearthevillageofKrymskeinLuhanskregion,accordingtoHromadskeTV.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/war/1372528-two-bodies-with-russian-army-chevrons-found-in-luhansk-region.html
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/war/1061523-families-of-russian-soldiers-killed-in-donbas-get-rub-3-mln-for-silence.html
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:.NYT.[ED:BELOWYOUWILLFINDTWOPIECESPUBLISHEDINTHENY
TIMES(ofDurantyFame)THATDESERVESPECIALATTENTION]
To:
[ED:Incidentally,theauthorofthefirstarticleintheNYT(ontheUAGayPrideMarchonJun12th),Ms.Alisa
Sopova,wasacorrespondentforapaperinDonetskin2014(editor-in-chiefwithDonbassDonetsk)andapparentlyis
stillworkingcloselywithfolksinRUoccupiedDonbass(OHBOY!!)[SEEINSTA'GRAMRIGHTBELOW]:
JAN2016

anastasiatlAlisaSopova@sopova.alisaisinDonetsk
whereshewillgatheragroupofvolunteersto
write#welcometodonetskpostcards.Shetookthis
picturetodayofpeopleclearingsnowoffthesurface
ofthepondinthecentralparkinDonetsk,sothatit
canbeusedforskating.Beforethewartherewere
severalfancyskatingrinksinthecity,buttheyall
closedbecauseofthewarandeconomicisolation.
#everydaywar
It'snottoolatetobepartofourprojectandreceivea
postcardcommemoratingsomeonewhowaskilledin
thewar.Justsendusyourpostal
addresstaylorlindstudio@gmail.com#warispersonal
brantslomovicShinnyinDonetsk@anastasiatl?
i_am_painted_fox@zozylya@undvan

Theabovemayexplainthehatchetjobshedid!Shehadprobablyalreadypreparedanarticlewiththefollowing
narrative:"Bloodinthestreetwith(ersatz)OUNandRShoodlumsbeatingUALGBT".

Whenitdidnothappen,Ms.AwenttoPLANB!!

YaGottaLuvtheGreyOl'Biddy(noage-ismormisogynyintended)..sheneverfailsher'Duranty-esque'
past!!
TheNewYorkTimes
UkraineShieldsGayRightsParadeFromRepeatofViolence
ByALISASOPOVAJUNE12,2016(AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonJune13,2016,onpageA3oftheNewYork
editionwiththeheadline:UkrainePoliceShieldGayRightsParadeFromViolence.)
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEV,UkraineGayrightsgroupsinUkrainecelebratedamilestoneonSundayholdingaparadewithoutbeingchasedor
attackedbyright-wingopponents.Butthemarch,inKiev,wasguardedbypoliceandsecurityforceswhosealedoffmuchofthe
citycenterandwarnedparticipantsnottolingerafterward.
About2,000peopleturnedoutfortheparade,calledKyivPride.Noviolencewasreportedattheevent,butaparticipantwas
beateninthedowntownareaanhourorsoafterward,organizersandthepolicesaid.
Theoutcomewasastrikingcontrasttolastyear,whenmembersoffar-rightorganizationsattackedthe300orsomarchers,
injuringdozens.SimilarviolenceappearedlikelytounfoldonSundayafterright-wingparamilitaries,emboldenedbytheir
popularityforfightinginthewaragainstRussian-backedseparatistsintheeast,vowedtoshutdownthemarch.
Inshort,itwillbeabloodymessonJune12inKiev,ArtemSkoropadsky,thespokesmanforonegroup,theRightSector,
wroteinajointstatementwithanothergroup,theOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists.
ThatthreatwastoomuchevenforUkraine,asocietytraumatizedbyawarthathasoftensoughtcomfortinnationalistideology,
andstirredresentmentfarbeyondthegaycommunity.Sowhatwasinitiallyplannedasagayprideparadetransformedintoa
demonstrationforequalityandagainstnationalistswhowanttoimposetheirownversionoftradition.
IstoodupduringtwoMaidansbecauseIdidntwantanybodytotellmehowIshouldlive,DanielKovzhun,aparticipantinthe
pro-democracyprotestsinMaidanSquarein2004and2014,wroteinresponsetoMr.Skoropadskysthreat.
Iwasatwartodefendmyfamily,mychildren,myhomeandmyfreedom,Mr.Kovzhunwrote.Andmychildrenwillbefreeto
decidehowtheyshouldlive,withwhomtosleepandwhattobelieve.Heposedwithhiswifeandsmallsonforanadvertising
campaigninsupportofKyivPride.
Lt.NadiyaV.Savchenko,Ukrainesfirstfemalecombatpilot,whowasfreedinaprisonersexchangewithRussialastmonth,also
spokeinsupportoftheparade.Shesaidhercountryneedednomorebloodinthestreets.
Ukrainesnationalpoliceforce,longnotoriousforbrutalityandvenality,hasbeenundergoingsweepingchangesbyhiring
thousandsofyoungofficers.Somehavepointedtothatasasignthatthecountrycanchangeforthebetter.
TheheadoftheNationalPolice,KhatiaDekanoidze,promisedtopreventviolenceatthemarch.Shedevisedasecurityplanthat
minimizedthepossibilityofclashes,atthecostoflockingdownpartthecapital.
Thepolicesealeda10-blockareainthecitycenter,andenteringtheareawaspossibleonlyafterathoroughsearch.Afterthe
march,whichlastednomorethanhalfanhour,thepoliceevacuatedparticipantsbybusesandthroughasubwaystationthatwas
openonlytothem.
Ms.Dekanoidzelaterreportedthat57peoplehadbeendetained.Duringtheevent,youngmencouldbeseenloiteringaroundthe
blockedareas,andasthemarchended,thepoliceblockedacolumnofpeopleinblackskimasksmovingtowardtheparade.
Correction:June12,2016
AnearlierversionofthisarticlereferredincorrectlytotheheadofUkrainesNationalPolice.Theleader,KhatiaDekanoidze,isa
woman.
[ED:Withthissecondpiece"SharksandpiranhasinUA",thesadpartisthat'RichardB[almforth]'isnotabad
reporter!!Whytheconstant'evilimageryforUA'?DoesitmakeiteasierfortheWesttogiveawayUAto
RU.withoutlingeringremorse????]
TheNewYorkTimes
AmongPoliticalSharks,UkrainianPilotSavchenkotoBea'SmallPiranha'
ByREUTERSJUNE10,2016,1:06P.M.E.D.T.
KIEVPointingatamanhangingonaropewhilefittinginsulationontoabuildingacrosstheroad,Ukraine'smostfamoussoldier
sometimeswishesshehadsuchalife,earningmoneywithanexcitingjobwithouthavingtothinkaboutpolitics.
Instead,straightafterspendingnearlytwoyearsinsolitaryconfinementinaRussianprisoncell,NadiyaSavchenkohasdivedintoa
careerinparliament,hopingtousehonestyandplainspeakingtofightcorruptionandendaseparatistwar.
"Inthearmy,youbelievethatyourfriendwatchesyourback,whereashereyouunderstandthatit'severymanforhimselfand
nobodybelievesanyoneelse,"shesaidinaninterviewwithReutersonabenchoutsideherparty'sheadquarters,whereshe
smokedalmostcontinuously.
"It'slikeI'minanaquariumfullofsharks,butI'malsoasmallpiranha."
A35-year-oldhelicopterpilot,SavchenkowascapturedduringamissiontorescuewoundedsoldiersduringabattlewithRussian-
backedrebels.ShewasspiritedacrosstheborderandjailedonwhatUkrainesaidweretrumpedupcharges.
ARussiancourtsentencedherto22yearsinjailafterfindingherguiltyofinvolvementinthedeathsoftwoRussianjournalists
coveringthefightingineasternUkraine.ShedeniedanyinvolvementbutmanyinRussiasawSavchenkoasanationalistwiththe
bloodofciviliansonherhands.
Hernicknameamongfellowsoldierswas"bullet",andhersteelydefiancewhileontrial,whichincludedhungerstrikesandshowing
aRussianjudgethemiddlefingerliveonTV,turnedherintoaherobackinUkraine.
Madealawmakerwhileincaptivity,SavchenkowasreturnedinaprisonerexchangeinMay,atatimeofgrowingfrustration
amongUkrainiansthattoolittlehaschangedsincethe2014Maidanprotestsbroughtapro-Westernleadershiptopower.
HerpresencecouldbeathorninthesideofPresidentPetroPoroshenko.OneofUkraine'srichestmen,Poroshenkopromisedto
endtheconflictintheDonbassregionwithinweeks,buttwoyearson,theviolencehaskilledmorethan9,000peopleanda
ceasefireisbarelyholding.
SavchenkowasgivenaparliamentaryseatbyYuliaTymoshenko,aformerprimeministernowheadoftheoppositionFatherland
party.Tymoshenkoleadspublicopinionpollsandcouldwinintheeventofasnapelection,fuellingspeculationthatsheand
Savchenkomaybecomerivals.
"Idon'twanttoscareanyone,"Savchenkosaid,askedifPoroshenkoandotherpoliticianscouldviewherasathreat.
"Iwantpeopletounderstand,theoldpoliticiansoftheoldschooltounderstand,thatUkrainenowneedsreforms,notonlyinevery
sector,butinpolitics.Theymustunderstandthisandfeelthataresetisneeded--toallowyoungblood."
EncouragedbyUkrainianswhowroteletterstoherinprison,Savchenkomayrunforpresidentin2019.
WhilewelcomingaMinskceasefireagreementbrokeredbetweenUkraineandRussia,shedisagreeswithkeyaspectsofthedeal,
includinggivingeasternUkrainemoreautonomyandholdinglocalelectionsintheDonbass.Shecausedcontroversybyofferingto
holddirecttalkswiththeseparatists.
"IampreparedtobecomepresidentoftheUkrainianpeoplewhentheyarepreparednottoselltheirvotes,"shesaid.
"IfIfeelthatIamsufficientlyqualifiedandthatthereareenoughpeoplewhodon'tjustshout"doit,"butdoitwithme--it's
possible,evenatthenextpresidentialelections."
PAPERBACKS,NOTDOSTOYEVSKY
SavchenkowascapturedduringarebelambushinJune2014.Firsthercaptorsthoughtshewasasniperandshesaysshewas
threatenedwithrape.Buttheythenrealizedthey'dcapturedanofficerwhowasalreadyaminorcelebrityasawomanpilot.
Prisonwastough.Shewasdeniedcontactwithotherprisonersandbelievesmanyoftheletterssenttoherwerewithheldbythe
prisonauthorities.
ShewantedtoreadbooksbyclassicalRussianauthorslikeFyodorDostoyevskyintheprisonlibrary,butwasallowedonlycheap
paperbacks,asDostoyevskywasseenastooseriousandliabletocausehertoharmherself.
Shewasawarethatsolitaryconfinementcoulddriveprisonerstoinsanityorsuicidewithinsixmonths.Watchingthewarthrough
theprismoftheRussianTVnewschannelsfilledherwithrage,butsaidshechanneledherangertosurviveprison.
Savchenkodoesn'twantrevengebutsaysEuropemustunderstandthatRussiaunderPresidentVladimirPutinwantstodragthe
continentbackintothe15thcentury.IfEuropeandtheUnitedStatesdon'tstandupforUkraine,shesays,PolandandGermany
couldsufferthesamefate.
Withareputationforbeingfieryandunpredictable,Savchenkoknowsshewillhavetobemorecarefulwithherchoiceofwordsas
apolitician.Shestillsportsacrewcut,missesthecamaraderieamongthetroops,butonFridayhadswappedhercombatfatigues
forpantsandsandals.
Isthereadangerthatlawmakerswillrideonthecoat-tailsofherfameormanipulateher?
"Ihavetheenergyofa15-year-oldandthephysicalhealthofa35-year-oldandthewisdomandlifeexperienceofa90-year-old,"
shesaid.
"I'mnotsostupidandit'snotthateasytomanipulateme.Idon'trememberthishappeninginmyformerlife.Commanderssaidthat
Iwasunmanageable,unpredictableandtheyoftenhadabigproblemwiththis.I'llbethesameforthepoliticians."
(EditingbyRichardBalmforth)

Senttime: 06/13/201601:26:54PM
To: JohnP.Williams<williamsjp@state.gov>KavalecKA@state.govgreenE@state.govFishelE@state.gov
Subject: Lifeafterfacts:howRussianstatemediadefinesitselfthroughnegation|openDemocracy
Lifeafterfacts:howRussianstatemediadefinesitselfthroughnegation
TheimageofRussianpropagandaasapowerfulmachinewhereallcogsandwheelsworkinharmonyisnot
entirelyaccurateandhereswhy.
May2016:FrenchjournaliststranslateDmitryKiselyov'ssegmenton"Eurosceptics"inFrance.Source:ouTube/
LePetitJournal.ThisMay,Russiasstate-runRossiyachannelshowedasegmentaboutunrestinFrance,whichDmitry
Kiselyov,hostofRussiastop-ratednewsprogramme,prefacedbysayingthateuroscepticsarerearingtheirheadsin
Europe.
Intheactualsegment,justoneeuroscepticwasfeatured:Jean-MarieLePen,theformerheadofFrancesfarright
NationalFrontparty,whokickedoutfromthepartybyhisowndaughterforbeingtooradical.
Theprogrammesotherheroes(peopleonthestreetandanoppositionpolitician)saidthingsthathadamodest
relationshiptoeuroscepticismtheywerespeakingaboutFrenchpeoplesprotestagainstlabourreform.
Moreover,asaninvestigationbyFrancesCANAL+channelshowed,thepeoplefeaturedinthissegmentfromthe
weeklynewsshowVestinedelihadtheirwordsnotonlytakenoutofcontext,butevencompletelymadeup(in
translationforaRussianaudience)bythesegmentsauthor.
WhatRussianjournalistsrefertoasmediashit-slinging,heatedargumentsbetweenjournalistson
Facebook,hasseepedintonationalnetworks
TherewasaflurryofresponsesfromstatebroadcastingcompanyVGTRK.First,thesegmentsauthorAntonLyadov
showedaninvestigationofCANAL+sinvestigationinanewsegmentalthoughthisonlyraisednewquestions.Then
Kiselyovhimselfdevotedanentiresegmentofthenextshowtothisstory,but,forsomereason,decidednottoaddress
theargumentsoftheFrenchprogramme,insteadfocusingonattacking,withsomefairlystrongwords,PavelGusev,the
chiefeditorofthetabloidMoskovskykomsomoletsnewspaper.(Gusevthenpennedanolessstrongly-wordedopen
lettertoKiselyov.)Kiselyovconcludedwithhisalreadyfamiliarargument:yes,theRussianpressmakesmistakes,but
westernmediaoutletsareevenbiggerliars.
Theconflictdidntendtherebothsidesarestilltryingtorileeachother.InaneweditionofVestinedeli,Kiselyov
talksaboutMikhailKhodorkovskysteleconference,whichwashostedbytheMoskovskykomsomoletspresscentrein
Moscow,withabackgroundpicturetitledIsthistherevolutionsheadquarters?
MoskovskykomsomoletsansweredwithawholeseriesofarticlesaboutKiselyov,mockinghimforsayingLetsget
backtoRussiaaftershowingasegmentonCrimeaandfeaturingacolumnthatcallsKiselyovanidiotandaprovocateur.
Weshouldnotethatthesefiguresarematched,toacertaindegree.KiselyovandGusevarealmostthesameage.Both
controltwoofthebiggestmediaplatformsinRussia(MoskovskykomsomoletsisRussiasthirdmostpopular
newspaperVestinedeliisthefourthmostpopularprogrammeonRussianTV,accordingtoTNS).BothGusevand
Kiselyovarerecipientsofstateawardsandmembersofvariouscouncilsandsitonvariousboards.
NowwehaveasituationinwhichtwoofRussiasmostrecognisablemediafigures,whohaveaccesstomillions
ofminds,aregoingaftereachotherinpublic
ButwhileKiselyovsVestinedeliistheloudestmouthpieceofgovernmentpropaganda,Moskovskykomsomolets
relationshiptotheRussiangovernmentishardtocategorise.ItsimpossibletobeinchargeofamainstreamRussianmedia
outletwithoutahighdegreeofloyaltytothestate.ThisiswhynobodycallsMoskovskykomsomoletsanopposition
newspaperevenaftertheypublishdissentingarticles.
Atthesametime,itisMoskovskykomsomoletsthathasfeaturedsomeofthemostsharplycriticalarticlesaboutthe
governmentinrecentyears,articlesthathaveresonatedfarmorethanthoseattraditionaloppositionpublications.In
response,boththepaperanditschiefeditorhavebeenhoundedbythesamepeoplewhodemandthattheindependent
Dozhd-TVbetakenofftheairandEchoMoskvyradiostationbeclosed.
Withthatinmind,ifMoskovskykomsomoletsisfeaturedbyforeignmediaandreportsonabusesoffreedomofspeech
inRussiabyNGOssuchasFreedomHouse,itisfeaturedafterEkhoandDozhd,asatabloidloyaltothegovernment,
whichaccidentallygotmixedupinacrackdown.
Tobelieveornotbelieve
NowwehaveasituationinwhichtwoofRussiasmostrecognisablemediafigures,whohaveaccesstomillionsofminds,
aregoingaftereachotherinpublic.WhatRussianjournalistsrefertoasmediashit-slinging(mediasrach),heated
argumentsbetweenjournalistsonFacebook,hasseepedintonationalnetworks.
SuchmediawarswouldseemtobeananachronismoftheYeltsinera.MainstreammediainPutinsRussiaisusually
referredtoasamonolith,presidedoverbyofficialsfromthePresidentialAdministration(itsfirstdeputyhead,accordingto
thePutinisttradition,istheshadowcuratorofRussianmedia),whosemissionistoelbowoutthelastremaining
independentpublications.
YetRussiasmediaenvironmentisfarmorefluidandcontradictorythanmeetstheeye.Theseconflictscanarisearound
theissueofmediaethics,whichweresupposedlykickedtothecurbastooold-fashioned,andthecompleteinsanityon
RussianstateTVwasexplainedawaybythefactthatRussiawasatwar.
TheconflictbetweenMoskovskykomsomoletsandtheRossiyaTVchanneldemonstratesthatRussian
propagandaisnotasmonolithicasitseems.Source:Youtube.Inthissituation,theviewerisdisoriented.Asthe
propagandamachinekickedintohighgear,allpolls(FOM,Levada,VTsIOM)showedthatcriticalattitudestomedia
werefadingaway,whiletolerancefordisinformationwasrising.AccordingtoFOM,forexample,54%ofrespondentsin
2014saidthatadegreeoflyinginthemediaisacceptableifitbenefitsthegovernment.In2001,45%ofrespondents
statedthatthereweren'tanytopicsthatyoucouldlieabout"intheinterestsofthestate",andin2014-only28%.
AnOctober2015Levadapollasked:"Whenwatchingtelevision,listeningtotheradioorreadingnewspapers,doyou
believethatyouaren'tgivenfullinformationoraredrawnawayfromimportanteventsortopics?"In2012,46%of
respondentsclaimedthattheyhadthisimpression"fairlyoften".In2015,itwas34%.Meanwhile,theamountof
respondentswhotrustthetelevisontocovereventsinRussia"toasignificantdegree"rosebytenpercentagepoints,from
38%to48%.
Thiswashappeninginthecontextofafull-blownpropagandacampaignonRussiasmostpopularstatechannels,featuring
allsortsofdevices:fromstrategicwithholdingofcertainfactstooutrightliesandmacabrefantasiesbroadcasttotheentire
country.
Russiasmediaenvironmentisfarmorefluidandcontradictorythanmeetstheeye
Asmyownexperienceshows,mostattemptstogetthroughtovictimsofdisinformationaremetwithatypicalresponseof
sowhatifourmedialies,everybodyeverywherelies,andanyway,theresaninformationwarbeingwagedagainstus,we
musthitback.
AllofthisishappeninginRussia,acountrywhich,from2000to2016sawariseofInternetusersfromnearlyzeroto
70%ofthepopulation.MoreandmoreolderRussiansaregettingonline.Ninety-sevenpercentofRussiansfromtheage
16to29arealreadyonline,accordingtoGfK.Inprinciple,sevenoutof10Russiancitizens,fromschoolchildrentovery
oldpensionersshouldbeabletowithstanddisinformation.
Butasresearchandexperienceshow,youcantdefeatconfirmationbias.Peoplewhobelievethatvaccinesarebadfor
yougrowonlymoredeterminedintheirviewsevenastheyencounterthemostirrefutablefacts(thisisthebackfire
effect,discussedinmanystudies).Andasthisstudyshows,consumersoffactualandfalseinformationbelongtoseparate
groupsthatbarelycommunicatewithoneanother.
Russiasoddrelationshipwithforeignmedia
Asfactsgrowmoreandmoreavailable,peoplearemoreandmoreeagertochoosepsychologicallycomfortinglies
andthisproblemisnotexclusivetoRussia.Thisisbadnewsforallopponentsofdisinformationandpropagandatheir
effortsgetlessclicksandviewsthatdisinformationitself.
TheissueisntthatRussianpropagandaissosophisticated,butthatitexploitsfeaturesofhumanpsychology,suchasself-
preservationmechanismsthatshieldthemindfromcognitivedissonance.Tellingpeoplewhattheywanttohearisnothing
new.
Tellingpeoplewhattheywanttohearisnothingnew
AnewpollbyVTsIOMhasexposedanotherparadox:althoughheadlineshavetrumpetedthefactthatRussianstrustin
televisionhasslightlyfallen,televisionremainstheabsoluteleaderasfarasinfluenceonopiniongoes.Theabsoluteanti-
leader,meanwhile,areforeignmedia:theirtrustratingsaredeeplynegative,at-42thisyear(theywereat-56lastyear,
andat+21in2007).
October2015:peopleprotestagainstdisinformationbywesternNGOsinMoscow.(c)AlexeyKudenko/RIA
Novosti.Allrightsreserved.ButasanewLevadapollshows,onlyonepercentofRussiancitizenssurveyedregularly
getsitsnewsfromforeignmedia.Sotheoverwhelmingmajorityofthosewhodistrustforeignmediaformtheiropinions
secondhand.SoifDmitryKiselyovsaysthatthoseforeignerslieandslanderRussia(andthepresidentialInstituteof
StrategicStudiesgoesasfarasregularlycomputinganindexofaggressionofforeignmediawithregardtoRussia),then
Russianviewersbelieveit.
Onepercentofapopulationisatinysum,butitisalsotruethatcomparativelyspeaking,foreignmediaisquitepopularin
Russia.Russiansactuallyhaveahistoryofveryreverentattitudestowardforeignnewspapers.Thesedatebacktothe
dayswhentheSovietculturalmagazineOgonyokpublishedphotographsfromtheMorningStar,andSovietpresskiosks
stockedthelatesteditionofL'Humanit.
RussiasInosmi.rusite,whichtranslatesarticlesfromvariousforeignoutletsintoRussian,hasbetween
250,000and300,000uniquevisitorsdaily
Today,manysustainasomewhatnaveandparadoxicalbeliefinthepoweroftheforeignpress.Youwontseethis
anywhereelse:RussiasInosmi.rusite,whichtranslatesarticlesfromvariousforeignoutletsintoRussian(fulldisclosure:I
wasthechiefeditorofInoSMIfrom2012to2014),hasbetween250,000and300,000uniquevisitorsdaily.Western
analogueslikeWorldCrunchdontgetevenatenthofthiskindoftraffic.InoSMIisnteventheonlysuchsiteinRussian.
Besidesthat,Russianoutletsofamorecommonprofiletranslateforeignarticlesmoreandmore.
RussiansinteresttowhatshappeningabroadismuchgreaterthantheworldsinterestinRussia.Thesharpdeclineof
trustinforeignmediacombinedwithasharpincreaseofinterestinforeignmedia(in2012,therateofuniquevisitorson
Inosmi.rurarelyroseabove100,000daily),hastodowithanotherphenomenon,mostcoherentlyexpressedbyour
favourite,DmitryKiselyov:Russianstatemedia,aimedatbothdomesticandforeignaudiences(suchasthestate-runRT
channel),determinetheirnicheintheworldviaconstantdenial,viathementalityofwearenotlikethem.
OveratVestinedeli,KiselyovnotonlyattackedCANAL+bypointingoutinstanceshowwesternmediatwistfacts,he
alsodirectlystatedthattheRussianmediaisbetter:WeillustrateprotestsagainstlaborreforminFranceinawaythats
coolerthantheirdomesticaudienceseesit.
May2016:DmitryKiselyovanddeputyministerofcommunicationsAlexeyVolinappearatthe"Neweraof
journalism"foruminMoscow.(c)AlexeyKudenko/RIANovosti.Allrightsreserved.Aweeklater,Kiselyovopened
theNewEpochofJournalism:GoodbyetotheMainstreamforumattheRossiyaSegodnyastatenewsagency(where
heisgeneraldirector).Newjournalismandpost-mainstreamthisishowKiselyovandhiscolleagueMargarita
Simonyan,chiefeditorofbothRossiyaSegodnyaandRT,viewthemselves.
KiselyovandSimonyansaythatdemandforanalternativeviewpointisgrowingintheworld,andthatRussiaistheleader
ofthisanti-mainstreamorpost-mainstreamtrend.Ofcourse,neitherKiselyovnorSimonyandontdeliveranyearth-
shatteringfactsinthecourseoftheirwork(RTrarelybreaksanynewsandtakesitsmostnoteworthyinformationfromthe
mainstreammedia,whichitsodespises).Instead,thesestoriessimplyconfirmtheiraudiencesexistingworldview,and
packagethisconfirmationasalternativeopinion.
Inthepost-mainstreamworld,objectivityisdevalued
Thesealternativeopinionscouldbeoutrightliesorcraziestconspiraciesbutinthepost-mainstreamworld,
objectivityisdevalued.Thereisnoobjectivity,Simonyanhasoftenfranklystatedthis.Thisnewrealityoflifeafterfacts
isparticularlyrewardingforSimonyaninGermany,wherethepopulationhasthehighestlevelofdistrusttowards
traditionalmedia.
Forinstance,accordingtoa2015pollbyDieZeit,morethan50%ofGermancitizenssurveyeddonottrusttheirmost
popularmediaoutletswhenitcomestothemostcontroversialtopicssuchasthemigrationandrefugeecrisis.Anditisthe
GermanversionofRossiyaSegodnyasSputniksitethathasthemostvisitors.
Russianmediasinternalconflict
ThestudyandstruggleagainstRussianpropagandahasbecome,inthelastfewyears,agenreofitsown,withhundreds
ofarticlesanddozensofstudiesdevotedtoit.Meanwhile,Russianpropagandahasbegunaperiodofself-reflection,
startingtodiscusswithitsaudiencewhetherornotliesandmanipulationsareacceptableinjournalism.
Sofar,liesandmanipulationaredeemedacceptablebecausewesternmediadoesthesamething.Thisconfirmspolitical
analystYekaterinaShulmanstheoryofthereversecargo-cultthebeliefthatkeyinstitutionsinwesternsocieties,such
asthosedevotedtofreedomofspeech,anindependentpress,humanrights,andsoon,areashypocriticalastheyarein
Russia,itsjustthatwesternsarebetteratpretending.
KiselyovhasahugeamountofargumentshecanmakeherefromsupportfortheIraqwarintheNewYorkTimesto
EuronewsexaggeratingthenumberofCrimeanTatarsdeportedby10times.Yetfansofthereversecargo-cultforget
onetiny,insignificantdetailinthewest,suchepisodescanharmamediaoutletsreputation,correctionsareissuedand
apologiesarevoiced.
ThemonolithknownasRussianpropagandaisnotasinvincibleaswereusedtobelieving
ForRussianmedia,thisissomethingexotic.Justlikeexamplesofmasssolidarityamongjournalists.Buttheyare
happening:firstoneregionaloutlet,andthen,anentireassociationofregionalpresshaveprintedawarningforreaderson
theirTVguidepage:Becareful!TheNTVchannelcandistortinformationandengageinpropagandawhilepassingitoff
asnews!ThiswastheresponsewhenNTVaccusedtheYakutskVechernynewspaperbyaugmentingitseditorial
policiesduetopressurefromGeorgeSorosOpenSociety.
ThusthesensationalnewsthatPutinspresssecretaryDmitryPeskovhasadmittedPutinmadeanerrorduringhisannual
TVquestion-and-answermarathon(PutinclaimedthatSuddeutscheZeitung,whichpublishedthePanamaPapers
investigation,belongedtoGoldmanSachs).
Likewise,KiselyovhimselfhadtoadmittoanerrorwhenVestinedelishoweddocumentsallegedlybelongingtoaworld
wartwo-eraUkrainianSSsoldier,whichwasclearlyfake,asmanyviewersimmediatelypointedout.Theseapologies
becamenewsbecauseadmissionsofwrongdoinganderrorsarenotcommontoRussiatheyreusuallyseenas
admissionsofweakness.
Buttheystillhappened,andthediscussiononethicsinjournalism(evenifitinvolvesasidesalongthelinesofbut
everyoneelseisalsounethical)isalsohappeningthemonolithknownasRussianpropagandaisnotasinvincibleas
wereusedtobelieving.
WanttoknowmoreabouthowmediaculturereallyworksinRussia?Checkoutour"Beyondpropaganda"rubric
orourrelatedarticlesformore.
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From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 06/14/201602:08:08PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue106
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June14,2016--Volume13,Issue106
INTHISISSUE
*FormerfinanceministerKudrinattemptstoconvincePutintoacceptliberalreforms
*MoscowencouragesCrimeanTatarstoacceptlimitednational-culturalautonomyinlieuof
territorialautonomy
*whileRussianpolicymakershopeforWesterndisunityatNATOsWarsawsummit

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
OntheIllusionofRussianReforms

OnMay25,2016,oneandahalfyearsaftertheeconomiccrisishitRussia,President
VladimirPutincalledtogetherasessionoftheEconomicCouncilPresidium,anadvisorybody
establishedbackin2012,butlastconvenedtwoyearsago(Kremlin.ru,May25Vedomosti,
April5).InearlyMay,thevastmajorityofeconomicexpertsinRussiaexpectedthe
EconomicCouncilmeetingtonotonlydeliversomevitaldecisions(Gazeta.ru,May22),but
alsorevealthepresidentschoicebetweenformerfinanceminister(20002011)Alexei
Kudrinsliberalsandtheconservatives,ledbyeconomistandformerDumamember
(19932007)SergeyGlazyevandBorisTitov,abusinessmanandleaderofthePartyof
Growth(Vse.nov.ru,May17).Yet,severalweeksafterthesessionconcluded,nothingseems
tohavechangedontheRussianeconomicscene.Whywasthisthecase,andwhatcan
observersofRussiaseconomicsituationexpectinthenearterm?

RegardingthelackofanymeaningfulprogressontheeconomyaftertheMay25Economic
Councilsession,theanswerhingesonPresidentPutinspersonality.Putinseeminglydoesnot
liketomakecrucialdecisionsunderpressureandinrecentmonths,prominentRussian
economistsandhigh-levelgovernmentbureaucratshaverelentlesslytriedtopersuadehim
therewasnoalternativetodecisiveactionfromtheKremlin(Slobodnaevropa.org,February
10SputnikNews, February20, 24 TASS,April20).Moreover,anyoftheproposed
optionsdemandriskymoves:eithertoliberalizetheperfectsystemPutinhasbuiltforyears,
ortoinjectmoremoneyintotheeconomy,thusriskingprovokingasharpriseininflationand
otherkeyrates.Nonetheless,Putinsapprovalratingshaveremainedhighandtheoilpriceis
rebounding,sotheremaybenoneedforpainfulreformsatthemoment.Inotherwords,the
economicsituationinRussiaisapparentlystillnotchallengingenoughtoforcePutinto
respond.
Theanswertothesecondquestionwhatonecanexpectoftheeconomyinthecoming
monthsismuchmorecomplicated.Firstofallitisstilluncertainwhowillprevailinthe
standoffovertheresponsetotheeconomiccrisisKudrinwithhisliberalprescriptions,or
GlazyevwithhisideasmostlyborrowedfromtheSovietpast.PriortotheEconomicCouncil
PresidiummeetingattheKremlin,Kudrinannouncedthathewoulddraftaneweconomic
agenda(RIANovosti,May23).Andalmostimmediatelythereafter,heengagedinvarious
brainstormingsessionsonfixingtheRussianeconomy(Vz.ru,June4).Consequently,the
majorityofanalystsproclaimedhimthevictorinthebattleforideas.Butinfact,itshouldbe
notedthatKudrinsopponentsfromtheso-calledStolypinClubalreadypresentedtheir
economicprogramatleastsixmonthsearlierandareconstantlyredraftingit.SoKudrin
shouldnotconsiderhisproposalstodefinitelybetheKremlinsultimatechoice.His
ideologicaladversarieswilllikelyhavesomethingtosayatthenextsessionoftheEconomic
Council,ifithappens.Thus,theeconomicpolicysituationinRussiaremainsincredibly
uncertain.
Thenextpointthatshouldbetakenparticularlyseriouslyisthetopicoftiming.Kudrinsaid
thatthecontoursofhisprogramwillbepresentedinthesummerof2017(Mir24.tv,June
5),whichmeanstheywillnotdealwiththecausesoreventheimmediateconsequencesofthe
currentcrisis.Ifthetimelineforactionisthislong,oneshouldperhapsadmitthattheformer
financeministeriswritinganeconomicagendaforthefourth(orthefifth,assomemayliketo
callit)Putintermratherthanforthepresent.Ifthatisthecase,thewholeaffairdiffers
substantiallyfromanykindofanti-crisismanagement.Rather,itappearsdesignedtoinfluence
thepresidentandhiseconomicrhetoricduringthe2018reelectioncampaignand,intheend,
toswaytheselectionofanewprimeministerafterPutinisreinstalledintheKremlin.Ifso,the
corelogicoftheprocessispreoccupiednotwithpursuingeconomicreforms,butwiththe
amountofinfluenceitsproponentshopetogainoverPutininamedium-termperspective
(Forbes.ru,May24).
Forfurtherclarity,itisworthfocusingprimarilyonthebureaucraticsourcesofthecurrent
debate.TheRussianpublicisexhaustedwithunendingnewsoftheUkrainiancrisis,
MoscowsSyriancampaign,andtheconstantlytrumpetedsuccessesintheRussianworld
(Russkiymir).Asdomesticeconomicproblemsmagnify,itseemsnaturaltoturnattentionto
thisparticularsphere.Assuch,theeconomicreformpoliciescurrentlybeingdebatedmaybe
usednotonlytocalmtheRussianpeoplebutalsotojustifythecompositionofthenext
government,whichwillprobablysucceedPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevscabinetafter
2018.
Atthesametime,thechancesforrealchangeremainminisculesincetheinitialresultsof
Kudrinseconomicbrainstormingsessionshavebeenrathermeagerandtheirconclusions
alreadywidelyevident.Forexample,Kudrinsteamofanalystslistedthreesystemicrisks
currentlyfacingtheRussianeconomy,allofwhicharequiteobvious:thelowqualityof
governmentdecisions,ahighrisktoinvestors,andtheuncertaintyregardingRussiasposition
intheglobalmarkets(RBC),June4).ThedebateonMay25showedthattheRussian
presidentrefusestoevendiscussminorchangestohisforeignpolicycourse(Expert.ru,May
30),sothereformersspaceformaneuverislimitedfromtheverybeginning.Andofcourse,
thesiloviki(securityservicespersonnel)havesaidnothingyetaboutthecompetingprograms,
whiletheircapacitytoinfluencethedebateshouldnotbeunderestimated.
Inconclusion,whatishappeninginRussiathesedaysseemstobenotthebeginningofanew
MikhailGorbachevstyleperestroika,whichwouldbeabletoproducesomevisiblechanges
bothintheeconomyandinsocietyasawhole,butrathersomethingsimilartoDmitry
Medevedevsmodernizatsia,whichhadproducednorealresultsalready,fewrememberit.
Russiaproved,in20082012,thatitcannotmodernize(Eurozine.com,February21).And
similarly,in20162020,itwillprovethatitisincapableofbuildingacompetitiveandeffective
liberaleconomy.Undoubtedly,assoonasthe2018electioncampaignisover,theeconomic
agendawillonceagainbeforgotten.
--VladislavInozemtsev
MoscowOfferingCrimeanTatarsErsatzAutonomy
HavingillegallyoccupiedCrimeaandworkedtodestroytheMilliMejlis(thedefactoquasi-
governingassemblyoftheCrimeanTatars)andallotherindependentCrimeanTatar
organizations,Moscowisnowofferingthatnationanersatzformofautonomy.Russian
propagandistswillundoubtedlyusethisalternativetounderminethewilloftheCrimean
Tatars,themostconsistentopponentsoftheCrimeanAnschluss.Moreover,thissubstitute
formofautonomywillbeusedtoconfusepeopleintheWestaboutwhatRussiaisdoingin
UkrainebyimplyingthatitissupportiveoftheCrimeanTatarswhen,infact,itisjustthe
reverse.
OnSunday,ZaurSmirnov,theheadoftheRussianoccupationsstatecommitteeforinter-
ethnicrelationsanddeportedcitizens,announcedthatCrimeanTatarswholiveinvarious
regionsofRussiaintendtoestablishafederalnational-culturalautonomy.Hedescribedthis
arrangementasaformofnational-culturalself-determination,whichallowsrepresentativesof
thisorthatethniccommunitytoindependentlydecideissuesofthepreservationoftheir
uniqueness,thedevelopmentoftheirlanguage,nationalcultureandeducation(RIANovsoti,
Nazaccent.ru,June12).
SmirnovaddedthattheCrimeanTatarsalreadyhaveanational-culturalautonomyonthe
peninsulabutthattoformafederationforrepresentationinthepresidentialcouncilofnational
culturalautonomies,theremustbesupportfromnolessthanhalfoftheregisteredregional
national-culturalautonomiesofRussiancitizenswhosaytheyaremembersofthe
correspondingethnos.Headdedthatnow,workisgoingoninSt.Petersburg,Astrakhan
oblast,andMoscowtocreate[suchbodies],andafterthathappens,theCrimeanTatarswill
receivetherighttocreateanational-culturalautonomyatthefederallevel.
Thegoalofthatinstitution,Smirnovsaid,istoconsolidateallCrimeanTatarswholivein
Russia:theheadof[it]willberepresentedinthePresidentialCouncilonethnicissues,which
includesalltheleadersoffederal-levelautonomies.Atthepresenttime,thereare16such
federal-levelautonomieswhorepresentsomebutnotallofthemorethanahundredlocaland
regionalnational-culturalautonomiesintheRussianFederation.
Allthismayseemlikeapositivedevelopmenttothosewhodonotknowthehistoryand
currentstateofsuchorganizationsinRussia.Buttherearethreereasonswhytheseinstitutions,
whichbegantoappearin1996,afterMoscowadoptedalawonthem,areinmostcases
moreasymbolicdeceptionthanarealdeferenceofthestatetotheneedsofparticularethnic
groups.
Firstandperhapsmostimportantly,theseinstitutionsaremoresymbolicthanreal.Theywere
establishedandremainlegallydefinedasnon-governmentalorganizations(NGO),ratherthan
governmentalbodies.Assuch,theycannotcollecttaxes,makebindingdecisionsevenontheir
members,orgiveorderstogovernmentofficialsontheterritorywheretheylive.Indeed,
accordingtotheprovisionsofthe1996actonnational-culturalautonomies,theyhaveeven
fewerrightsthanNGOsthatarenottiedtoethniccommunities,becauseofRussian
governmentrestrictionsontheuseofnationalityinthatsector.
Second,Moscowhasrepeatedlyusedtheseinstitutionstoblockeffortsbyethniccommunities
toeitherestablishorre-establishethnicterritorialautonomies.Thus,theRussianGermans
wereaccordedafederalnational-culturalautonomyinordertokeepthemfromdemanding
therestorationofaGermanautonomousrepublic,asRussianlegislationhadrequired.It
appearsthattheRussianauthoritiesaredoingexactlythesamethinginthecaseofthe
CrimeanTatars,thussquelchingtheirhopesthatVladimirPutinwillliveuptohispromiseto
fullyrehabilitatethemagain,asRussianlawrequires.
Andthird,theRussianauthoritiesnotonlyareusingthisdeviceagainstgroupsthatdonot
haveterritorialautonomythechiefformofdefenseofethnicrightsintheRussianFederation
butalsoagainstthosethatdo.Indeed,somepoliticalcommentatorsarguethatnational-
culturalautonomiesshouldreplacenational-territorialautonomiesasRussiacontinuestomove
towardahighlycentralizedunitarystate(foradiscussionofsuchnotions,seeAlexander
Osipov,NationalCulturalAutonomyinRussia:ACaseofSymbolicLaw, Reviewof
CentralandEastEuropeanLaw,35:1(2010),pp.2757).
Butdespiteallthis,theCrimeanTatarsmaybeabletoexploitthisnewstructurefortheirown
purposesbyincreasingcontactsamongtheircommunitiesacrosstheformerSovietspaceand
evenbyadvocatingfortheadvancementoftheirinterestsassomeotherfederalnational-
culturalautonomieshavedone.Perhapsthemostsuccessfulsuchapproachhasbeenpursued
bytheAzerbaijanifederalnational-culturalautonomies,whichhasusedthisstructureto
promoteBakuspositionsonawidevarietyofissuesandtoopposeRussianpoliciesits
membersandtheAzerbaijanigovernmentdislike.ItwillbefarmoredifficultfortheCrimean
Tatarstofollowthisexamplegiventheirnumericallysmallersizeandlackofaco-ethnicstate
abroad.ButthepossibilitytheywilldososuggeststhattheKremlinwillallowtheirersatz
autonomyevenlessfreedomofactionthanitaffordstoothernationalitieswithinRussia.
--PaulGoble
MoscowAnticipatesAnti-RussianNATOSummit
AheadoftheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)July89summitinWarsaw,
commentatorswidelyexpecttheAlliancetoadoptarangeofmeasurestoboostsecurityon
itsnortheasternandeasternflanks.Moscow,however,notesanumberofsignals,suchas
themovementofUnitedStatesaircraftcarriersintotheMediterraneanSeaortheactivationof
themissiledefensebaseinRomania,assendingmessagestoMoscowinthecontextofrising
NATO-Russiatensions.Yet,suchmovesalsohighlightNATOsconcernaboutsub-state
threatsfromitssouth.Nonetheless,MoscowseestheWarsawSummitascontinuingapattern
ofreinforcingtheAllianceagainstRussiathatwascementedinWalesin2014.Meanwhile,
thereislittledoubtthatintheaftermathoftheWarsawSummit,Moscowcouldchooseto
generateanupsurgeinviolenceinDonbasthough,fornow,theKremlinseemscontentwitha
simmeringconflict,andatleastinrecentmonths(see EDM,June13),hasgenerallybeen
carefultoavoidconflictescalation(Izvestia,June10NovayaGazeta,June6RIANovosti,
May22).
TheprecisecontoursofRussiasresponsetotheWarsawSummitareopentoquestion.
However,RussiancommentatorsnotethatthesourcesoffrictionwithNATOgowellbeyond
Ukraine.Accordingtothelatestiteration(December2015)ofRussiasNationalSecurity
Strategy,theprincipalthreattoRussiansecuritystemsfromthedangerofcolorrevolutions.
NATOspublicdiplomacyactivitiesareconsideredtiedtoAllianceinformationstrategy.
Thesetechnologies,accordingtoRussianexpertsandpolicymakers,canbeharnessedto
preparecolorrevolutionandorganizeacoupdtat.Consequently,MoscowseesNATOand
theUSactivelyengagingininformationwarfareagainstRussia.Therefore,theKremlinislikely
tofocusonstrengtheningnationalandcollectivedefense(NezavisimoyeVoyennoye
Obozreniye,February26).
MuchofthespeculationconcerningthenatureofMoscowsinterpretationoftheupcoming
NATOsummitandhowRussiamightreactfollowspatternsvisibleovermissiledefense.Any
strategicresponseisheavilytiedtoRussianmilitarycapabilitythis,inturn,raisesquestionsas
totheextentexaggerationsofRussianmilitarycapabilityaretakingrootwithinAlliance
planning.Significantscopeexistsformisinterpretation,especiallyconcerningadvancesmade
inRussiasmilitarymodernization,ortheextenttowhichitisachievingforceintegrationor
successfullyadoptingcommand,control,communications,computers,intelligence,surveillance
andreconnaissance(C4ISR)(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,June10).
DespitetherhetoricfromMoscow,itspoliticalappetiteremainsforlimitedcooperationwith
NATO,recognizingthatAlliancemembersaredividedoverRussia,whiletheorganization
facesreorientationfromoutofareaoperationstoreturntoacollectivedefensefocus.These
challengesareinternaltotheAlliance,andMoscowperceiveslackofunityasanimpediment
todevisingagenuinelychallengingpolicytowardRussia.Intothispolicymaelstromfall
variablessuchasthechanginginternationalsecurityenvironment,theextenttowhich
EuropeanunityoversanctionsagainstRussiacanholdindefinitely,ortheimplicationsforUS-
RussiarelationsofthepresidentialelectionintheUnitedStates(Regnum,December4,2015).
StatementsbytheRussianpolitical-militaryleadershipandtheevolutionofthestatesnational
securitydocumentspointtolong-runningandsharpeningdifferenceswiththeAlliance,which
arefrequentlyoversimplified,couchedinpoliticalrhetoric,orconsideredbybothsidessimply
aspartofaninformationcampaign.RussiananalystsopposeNATOenlargement,themoving
ofmilitaryinfrastructureclosertoRussiasborders,andmissiledefensetiedtoemerging
capabilitiessuchasUSPromptGlobalStrike.Nonetheless,theyalsoarticulatemorenuanced
viewsconcerningtherootsoftheRussia-NATOdivideandhowthismayplayoutinthe
future.Moreover,itisimportanttounderstandhowtheRussiansecurityeliteandtopbrass
cametoseeNATOasthemainthreattoRussiansecurity,despitetheexistenceofseemingly
morepressingthreats,includinginternationalterrorism,extremismorseparatism(Topwar.ru,
May25,2013).
Thesedifferencesarenotonlypolitical,butrelatetocultural,historicalandvalue-basedissues.
WhileMoscowandNATOinterprettheUkrainecrisisanditsoriginsquitedifferently,this
basicinterpretativedichotomyresonatesthroughoutallareasofdisputebetweenWashington-
BrusselsandMoscow.Putin,likemuchoftheRussiassecurityelite,remainsheavily
influencedbyNATOsbombingofSerbiain1999,whichservesasapretextforRussian
policymakerstoquestionNATOsself-identificationasadefensiveallianceoritscommitment
toupholdinginternationallegalnorms.MoscowassessesNATOasadestructiveorganization
constitutingathreattointernationalsecurityandtoRussiasnationalinterests,andthis
interpretationpermeatesRussianperspectivesontherecenthistoryofNATOsout-of-area
operations:acatalogueoffailuresthathasresultedinunintendeddestabilizationinitswake,
Russiaargues.OnerecentarticleinNezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniyedividesNATOs
recentdevelopmentintothreestages:Itsfirstphase(19891999)featuredenlargementanda
shifttocircumventinginternationallawasecondstage(19992010)wasmarkedbyboosting
NATOspresenceinstrategicallyimportantregions,continuingexpansionclosetoRussias
bordersandbuildingglobalpartnerships,andagreeingtodeployamissiledefensesystemthat
maythreatenRussiasstrategicdeterrentthethirdstage(2010present),isexemplifiedby
developingglobalfunctionsanddevisingstrategiestoeffectivelyconfrontorcontainRussia.
TheunderlyingdriverinthesedevelopmentsistoaffordaglobalroleforNATO,thearticle
concludes(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,May27).
However,sincePutincametopowerin2000,Moscowhassoughttoinvestitsnational
securitystrategywithanadaptionofitsnationalvaluesandinterestsinpursuitofbalancedand
equaldealingswithNATOintheKremlinsview,thisflexiblestrategyhaspermitted
cooperationandalsofacilitatedMoscowsindependentactioninitsinterestsinGeorgia,
UkraineandSyria.Thus,aheadofNATOsWarsawSummit,Russianpolicymakersconsider
theadoptionofreassurancemeasuresasinnatelyanti-Russian,butalsoconsistentwiththe
Allianceacquiringglobalfunctionsrootedinitsrecentappetiteforout-of-areaintervention
andcreatingzonesofcontrolledchaosinstrategicallyvitalareas.Inthiscontext,Moscow
expectsanti-RussianrhetorictomarktheNATOsummit,butalsobelievesthatWestern
policymakersperceiveothersecurityissues,suchastheIslamicStateormigration,asperhaps
morepressingthanRussia(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,May27).
MoscowforeseesfurtherNATOenlargement,deepeninginternaldivisionsoverRussia-linked
policychallengesorhowtodealwiththem,andanoverallappetitetoresistdealingwith
Moscowasapotentialpartner.Inturn,Moscowwilllikelyuserhetoricasitsmainresponse
totheWarsawsummit,whileundertakingcautiousadjustmentstoitsdefenseposture,awaiting
thepoliticalimplicationsofthechangeoftheUSpresidentamongotherfactorsinitsstrategic
calculus.
--RogerMcDermott
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From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 06/11/201611:52:03AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fw:Fwd:CanBrandTrumpWinaPresidency?
OnFriday,June10,20168:23PM,RoxaneSismanidis<sisman@verizon.net>wrote:
----------OriginalMessage----------
From:RoxaneSismanidis
Date:Jun10,20168:03:22AM
Subject:CanBrandTrumpWinaPresidency?
To:sburant@verizon.net
Thoughtyou'dfindthisofinterest:
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/can-brand-trump-win-a-presidency?
utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=06.10.2016%20(1)
Senttime: 06/15/201611:58:30AM
FW:[BB.RESENTTOTHISBCCSEC]Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategy
Subject:
CyberBalticsNATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeonAN
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,June14,20166:37PM
Subject:[BB.RESENTTOTHISBCCSEC]Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRU
strategyCyberBalticsNATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL's
takeonAND...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Jun14,2016at9:33PM
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategyCyberBaltics
NATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeon
ANDREINEKRASOV]Putin'sapologist.recentconvertorlongstandingsympathizer[StefL]Fwd:[Reviewof]East
WestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands(onsloppy...or
ignorant.journalism)
To:
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategyCyberBaltics
NATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeon
ANDREINEKRASOV]Putin'sapologist.recentconvertorlongstandingsympathizer[StefL]Fwd:[Reviewof]East
WestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands(onsloppy...or
ignorant.journalism)
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkraineforcesRussianforcesRussianstrategyCyberBalticsNATOCentralAsia
NuclearRussianeconomyBlackSeaSwedenFranceTurkeyPrisonersFootballMH17
To:
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30,13June2016
TheSMMobservedmoreceasefireviolationsinbothDonetskandLuhanskregionscomparedwith11and12June.TheMission
conductedcrateranalysisandobserveddamagestocivilianhousescausedbyshelling.TheSMMcontinuedtomonitorthe
withdrawalofweapons.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/246731

SixUkrainiansoldierswoundedinDonbasinlastday
http://www.unian.info/war/1375063-six-ukrainian-soldiers-wounded-in-donbas-in-last-day.html
Ukraineforces
NATOstandardstobeguidebookfor70%ofUkrainesDefenseMinistrybyyear-end
http://www.unian.info/war/1375648-nato-standards-to-be-guidebook-for-70-of-ukraines-defense-ministry-by-year-end.html
Russianforces
RussiaBeefsUpMilitaryPotentialintheCountrysWesternAreas
http://www.pism.pl/publications/bulletin/no-35-885#
[SentbyMiltonLeitenbergandStefanForss]
PutinorderedasuddenauditofRussianmilitaryinventories.
http://newsru.com/russia/14jun2016/prov.html
Russianstrategy
MoscowPromisesResponsestoUSandNATOActivities
Russiasambivalentself-restraintinthelastcoupleofmonthsisprobablyanattemptatsuchde-escalation,buttherearefew
reasonstobelievethatitwillpayanydividends.TheresonanceintheWestofRussiasgrossviolationsofthenormsofinternational
behaviorfaroutweighsanyimpressionmadebyapauseinRussianmilitaryexercisesparticularlysincethehostilityofMoscows
anti-Westernrhetorichasremainedsevere.Putinmaywishtoincreasehisspaceformaneuver,buttheKremlinspromisesto
forcefullyrespondtoNATOsstrengtheningcontainmentcapabilitiesandtotheimaginaryencroachmentsonRussiassecurity
frontierskeepmultiplying.AlthoughnobodyisgoingtoholdPutintothesepromises,heknowsthathecandemandloyaltyfromthe
disgruntledandsquabblingsiloviki(securityservicespersonnel)onlyaslongashekeepsprovingthefirmnessofhisrulinghand.As
longasthedemonstratedprudenceservesthepurposeofdeceptionandmaskirovka(Russianmilitarydeception),itisperfectly
fine,butgoingforrealcompromisesrisksshowingweakness.Attemptinganotherproactivemovemightbeasaferoption,but
Putinneedstoscoreonthecheapandthebillsfortheearliervictorieskeeppilingup.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45502&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=a4293c7ceb9697d1ab0e22643ca2d857#.V1-
1hbt96Ul
Cyber
RussiansstealresearchonTrumpinhackofU.S.DemocraticParty
HackersbelievedtobeworkingfortheRussiangovernmentbrokeintotheDemocraticNationalCommittee'scomputernetwork,
spiedoninternalcommunicationsandaccessedresearchonpresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump,the
committeeandsecurityexpertssaidonTuesday.
TwoseparategroupsenteredtheDNC'ssystem,andonereademailandchatcommunicationsfornearlyayearbeforebeing
detected,accordingtothecommitteeandCrowdStrike,thecyberfirmthathelpedcleanupthebreach.
RussianspiesalsotargetedthenetworksofTrumpandDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClinton,aswellasthecomputers
ofsomeRepublicanpoliticalactioncommittees,theWashingtonPostquotedU.S.officialsassaying,althoughdetailswerenot
available.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-hack-idUSKCN0Z0205
RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-opposition-research-
on-trump/2016/06/14/cf006cb4-316e-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html

HackBrief:RussiasBreachoftheDNCIsAboutMoreThanTrumpsDirt
http://www.wired.com/2016/06/hack-brief-russias-breach-dnc-trumps-dirt/
Report:RussiaBehindCyberattacksOnMh17InvestigationTeam
http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/06/10/report-russia-behind-cyberattacks-mh17-investigation-team/
Baltics
InDefenseOfAWargame:BolsteringDeterrenceOnNATOsEasternFlank
http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/in-defense-of-a-wargame-bolstering-deterrence-on-natos-eastern-flank/
[SentbyMiltonLeitenberg]
NATO
NATODefenceMinistersagreetoenhancecollectivedefenceanddeterrence
Mr.StoltenbergunderlinedthatNATOhasnowfullyimplementedtheReadinessActionPlan,adoptedattheWalesSummittwo
yearsago.Today,headded,Alliesaretakingthenextsteps.Ministersalsoagreedontailoredmeasurestoenhancedefenceand
deterrenceintheBlackSearegion.Therewillalsobemorepre-positionedequipmentandsupplies,hesaid.
TheSecretaryGeneralstressedthatNATOsdefenceanddeterrencepostureisfull-spectrum,fromresilienceandnational
defence,toconventionalcapabilities,tothenucleardimension.Today,ministersmetintheNuclearPlanningGroup,toconsiderthe
safety,securityandeffectivenessofNATOsnucleardeterrent.Turningtocyberdefence,ministersagreedtorecognisecyberspace
asanoperationaldomainattheWarsawSummit.Treatingcyberasanoperationaldomainwouldenableustobetterprotectour
missionsandoperations,saidMr.Stoltenberg.
NATODefenceMinistersalsodiscussedthefreedomofmovementofNATOforcesacrossEurope.Itisvitalthatourtroopsand
equipmentcanmovewithoutdelay.Forexercisesinpeacetime,forreinforcementsinanemergingcrisis,timeisoftheessence,
saidtheSecretaryGeneral.HestressedthatNATOAllieshavecutredtapeandupdatedcomplexprocedurestoimprovethe
Alliancesabilitytodeployforcesatspeed.
Mr.StoltenbergnotedthatNATOseffortstoboostitsdeterrenceanddefencedependontherightcapabilitiesandresources.He
underlinedthat,aftermanyyearsofconstantcutsindefencespending,theAllianceisnowbackontherighttrack.In2015we
sawasmallincreaseindefencespendingacrossEuropeanAlliesandCanada.Andourestimatesindicateafurtherincreasein
defencespendingin2016,hesaid.TheSecretaryGeneraladdedthatAlliesmustsustainthismomentumandreviewprogressat
theWarsawSummit.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_132356.htm
NATO'sNextActHowtoHandleRussiaandOtherThreats
ByPhilipM.Breedlove
asRussiasinterventioninSyriahasdemonstrated,Moscowwillseekoutallopportunitiestoexpanditsinfluenceabroad.
BecausetheKremlinviewstheUnitedStatesandotherNATOmembersasitsprimaryadversaries,itconsidersitsrelationship
withtheWestazero-sumgame.Itwillcontinuetodosofortheforeseeablefuture.
[]
DespiteRussiasgrowingbelligerence,neithertheUnitedStatesmilitarynorthoseofitsalliesareadequatelypreparedtorapidly
respondtoovertmilitaryaggression.NoraretheysufficientlyreadytocounterthekindofhybridwarfarethatMoscowhaswaged
ineasternUkraine.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2016-06-13/natos-next-act?cid=soc-tw-rdr
NATOtosendtroopstodeterRussia,someallieswantmore
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-russia-idUSKCN0Z01BC
CentralAsia

U.S.SignalsGreaterFocusOnCentralAsianSecurity
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79201
Some100militaryunitsdeliveredtoRussianmilitarybaseinTajikistan
http://tass.ru/en/defense/881741
Nuclear
High-LevelMeetingUrgesNukeTestBanTreatyRatification
AseniorAmericanofficialonMondayreaffirmedWhiteHousesupportforatreatybanningnucleartestingworldwideandurged
othercountriestomoveittowarditslong-delayedenactmentdespitethe"domesticpoliticalobstacles"keepinghercountryfrom
ratifyingit.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/06/13/world/middleeast/ap-un-nuclear-test-ban.html
Russianeconomy
TheEmperorHasNoClothes
AsanctionedfriendofVladimirPutin,thebusinessmanArkadyRotenberg,hasfrozenconstructionontheKerchchannelbridge,
duetoalackoffinancing.ForbesRussiareportsthecontractingcompany,RotenbergsStroygazmontazh,didnotreceivea
scheduledmoneytransferfromthebudgetanddoesnthavethecapitaltocontinueconstructingthebridgethatwouldconnect
annexedCrimeatoitsnewhomelandsterrafirma.
[]
RussiasPresidenthasbeendoinghisbesttohelphisfriendsout,butthesourceoffundingthathasallowedhimtodosomightbe
dryingupsoon.RBCaskedanumberofRussianeconomistshowsoonRussiasReservefundwouldbeexhausted.14outof32
economistsassumeitmighthappenassoonas2017.Theyconcludethatifoilpriceskeepataround$40-50perbarrel,bythe
beginningofnextyeartherewillbenomorethan1.1trillionrubles($16.6billion)intheFund.Andifoilpricesdontcomebackto
over$50,bytheendofnextyear,RussiasReserveFundmightbeemptiedcompletely.
Putinstronglydisagreeswiththispointofview.Duringhisannualcall-inshowinApril,heproudlysaidthattheReserveFundand
RussiasNationalWealthFundtogetherwouldallowthecountrytonotdoanythingatalleveryonecouldstopworkingforfour
months.(Hedidnotclarifywhatwouldhappennext,though.)IfRussiajustcontinuedonitspresentcourse,Putinargued,thetwo
Fundswouldstaysolventforfouryears.
DuringhisinterviewwithGermanysBild,Putinappearedtoeithernotknowtheactualsumscontainedinthetwofunds,orwas
willinglyexaggeratingthem.RussiasPresidentsaidtheCentralBanksinternationalreservesexceed$300billionwhilethereare
thetwomorefundsbesidesthat,theReserveFundandRussiasNationalWealthFund,worth$150billion.Therealityisthatthe
ReserveFundandRussiasNationalWealthFundarecountedaspartoftheCentralBanksinternationalreserves.
TheReserveFundismeanttocoverRussiasbudgetdeficit,whiletheRussiasNationalWealthFund,originallyintendedtokeep
Russiaspensionsystemsolvent,wastappedforanambitiousbailoutprograminearly2015,meanttohelpthecountryslargest
banksandcorporationsweatherthecombinationoflowoilpricesandWesternsanctions.(Putinsfriendssitatopmanyofthe
companiesthatstoodtohavebenefitted.)
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/09/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/
MinistryofFinanceoftheRussianFederation'sbudgetdeficitforthefirstfivemonthsin2016amountedto4.6%ofGDP,inMay-
5.5%ofGDP
:2016.4,6%,-5,5%
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3362680
BlackSea
Report:AthreatbasedstrategyforNATOsSouthernFlank
KeyThreatsandPolicyResponses
Hybridwarfare:Thisthreatrequiresmultidimensionalstrategiesforterritorialdefense,cooperativesecurity,andcrisismanagement.
Russiasanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)buildup:NATOshoulddevelopanewmaritimestrategyfortheSouthernflank,
enhancingthecapabilitiesofitsStandingMaritimeGroup2.NATOsdeep-strike,precision-strike,andstealthcapabilitiesshould
beleveragedthroughadvancedairplatformsandmunitionsintheEasternMediterranean.
Iransballistic-missileproliferation:Aneffectiveresponsewouldcombineenhancedmissile-defensecapabilitieswithdeploymentof
F-22fighterplanesinTurkey.
Statefailure:NATOshouldmitigatetheconsequencesofsecuritythreatspresentedbyArabcountriesfacingstatefailureandhelp
partnersaddresstheirgovernancechallenges.
Radicalandviolentnonstateactors:AkeypriorityforNATOsresponsetoviolentextremismshouldbetodevelopamore
effectivecounterterrorismstrategy.
Proliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionamongnonstateactors:NATOshouldseektoupgradeitsWMDproliferation
surveillancecapabilitiesandimproveitsawarenessofchemicalandbiologicalthreats.
StrategicDilemmasFacingtheAlliance
Givenitsbudgetaryimpact,aSouthernflankstrategywouldrequireapotentiallydifficult-to-forgepoliticalconsensusamong
NATOmembers.
WhendevotingmoreresourcestotheSouthernflankrequiresassigningfewerresourcestotheEast,differencesbetweenNATO
alliesthreatperceptionscancreateabottleneck.NATOsJuly2016Warsawsummitwillprovideauniqueopportunityforthe
alliancetoovercomethisstrategicvulnerabilityanddealconstructivelywiththepotentiallydivisiveissueofpriorities.
Thisstrategywillrequireburdensharing,apolarizingissueinthetransatlanticrelationship.Tomovebeyondthis,European
policymakersshouldreshapetheirdomesticstrategiccommunicationsandunderlinetheneedforEuropetostartreinvestinginits
ownsecurity.
TheriseofpopulismintheWestwillimpacttheabilityofthetransatlanticalliancetoprojectpeaceandstabilityintheworld.Thisis
thekeyobstacletotheelaborationofaforward-lookingstrategytoaddressthesecuritychallengesofEuropesSouth.NATO
leadersmustavoidenteringintoadomesticallydriveneraofinternationalpolicyinertia.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/06/10/threat-based-strategy-for-nato-s-southern-flank/j1oz
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/NATO_Southern_Flank.pdf
Sweden
AtutorialonSwedishsecurityandDefensepolicy
GoWestSverigeefteralliansfriheten
http://kvartal.se/artiklar/efter-alliansfriheten
[SentbyStefanForss]
France
ExtendingLeclerclongevity
http://www.janes.com/article/61307/extending-leclerc-longevity-es2016d2
Turkey
Turkey'sShipbuildingSetforaBoost
TheTurkishgovernmenthassaidthatitintendstobuyscoresofnavalassetsinthenextyears,potentiallygivingamajorboostto
thecountrysflourishingshipyardsandtheirforeignpartners.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2016/06/14/turkish-shipbuilding-boost/85860442/
Prisoners
PutinpardonedtwoUkrainianprisonersinexchangefortwoOdesaprisoners
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52155
MH17
HackofRussianTVchannelshowsnewinfoonMH17
.2:17
http://informnapalm.org/23880-mh17-forbidden-interview/
Football
RussiahandedsuspendedEuro2016disqualificationandfined150,00
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/14/russia-handed-suspended-euro-2016-disqualification-fined-150000-uefa
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Subject:mytakeonANDREINEKRASOV[Ed:Astoryaboutsomeonechallengingthefundamentalpremisesbehind
theMagnitskyAct]
To:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
DearAll,
Ithoughtyoumightbeinterestedinmytakeonwell-knownRussianfilmmakersAndreiNekrasovrecenttransformationintothe
toolofPutinspropaganda.InthearticlepublishedbyTheAmericanInteresthttp://www.the-american-
interest.com/2016/06/14/the-many-faces-of-putinism/IarguethatitmightbethatnotransformationtookplaceandNekrasovhas
beenjustadifferentfaceofPutinsregimeforalongtime.OntopofthatNekrasovstransformationmightbeaneye-openerthat
noteverybodywhoopposesPutinpersonallyisactuallyanenemyofregimeassuch.Andwecantcountonallofthemasdriving
forcesforregimechange.
Bestwishes,
Marius
MariusLaurinaviius
SENIORFELLOW-IN-RESIDENCE
BAFFSECURITYRESEARCHSCHOLAR
P:(202)5519208
E:marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org
CenterforEuropeanPolicyAnalysis
122519thStreet,Suite450
Washington,DC20036
cepa.org| |
From:StefanLemieszewski<lemistefan@gmail.com>
Subject:EastWestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands[ED:An
"Oops"MomentSloppyJournalism]
To:CherMadden<lesia.chernihivska@gmail.com>
Cc:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>,Nicholas<cambat@earthlink.net>,WyattEmail
<vegasuclawrma@earthlink.net>,AlexMotyl<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,MDAndrijBaran
<LITZARS@msn.com>,Yaromyr@aol.com,AlexanderKuzma<abkuzma@ucef.org>,30MORE
image
SotheworldisbeginningtorealizethatbothtermsGenocideandCrimesAgainstHumanityhadtheiroriginsinthecityofLviv.
AndyetwehaveCullenMurphywritinginVanityFairaboutthetiestowhatisnowthePolishcityofLww.
WherearetheeditorchecksandfactreviewersatVanityFair?
Stefan
P.S.TheNewYorkTimesalsohasareviewofPhilippeSandsEastWestStreet:OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"Crimes
AgainstHumanity"
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/books/review/east-west-street-by-philippe-sands.html
http://www.amazon.com/East-West-Street-Genocide-Humanity/dp/0385350716?
ie=UTF8&keywords=East%20West%20Street&qid=1464568908&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1
===========================================
http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2016/05/phillipe-sands-east-west-street-nazi-genocide
VanityFair
27May2016
CrimesAgainstHumanity
5QuestionsforPhilippeSandsAheadofHisNazi-EraSagaEastWestStreet
TheprominentBritishlawyer'snewbookfocusesonfourmen,includinghisgrandfather,withtiestowhatisnowthePolishcityof
Lww.TwoofthemwouldassisttheprosecutionofNazileadersatNurembergandchangethewaywethinkaboutwarcrimes.Here,
Sandstalkstoeditor-at-largeCullenMurphyaboutgenocide,crimesagainsthumanity,andhisownancestry.
byCullenMurphy
[...]
==========================
Senttime: 06/11/201608:16:32AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Subject: THEUSESTABLISHMENTPLANSWARTOSTOPTRUMP|Katehonthinktank.Geopolitics&Tradition
http://katehon.com/directives/us-establishment-plans-war-stop-trump
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 06/13/201601:19:35PM
FW:["VLADGOINGREALLYBAD"MEETSTHE"SUNDAYEVENINGRUN"][PB]RU&UKintheEuroCupLondongrad&ASmearThatDidNotWork..[NeilB]RU&Magnitsky[KeithB]100000fleecrimeaasrussiatightens
Subject:
grip[NICMND]FightinginEasternUkraineHist
Sent:Sunday,June12,20164:31PM
Subject:["VLADGOINGREALLYBAD"MEETSTHE"SUNDAYEVENINGRUN"][PB]RU&UKintheEuroCupLondongrad&ASmearThatDidNotWork..[NeilB]RU&Magnitsky[KeithB]100000fleecrimeaasrussia
tightensgrip[NICMND]FightinginEasternUkraineHisto...
Date:Sun,Jun12,2016at7:13PM
Subject:["VLADGOINGREALLYBAD"MEETSTHE"SUNDAYEVENINGRUN"][PB]RU&UKintheEuroCupLondongrad&ASmearThatDidNotWork..[NeilB]RU&Magnitsky[Keith
B]100000fleecrimeaasrussiatightensgrip[NICMND]
Date:Sun,Jun12,2016at11:22AM
Subject:Euro2016:EnglandandRussiagivendisqualificationwarning-BBCNews[LONDONGRADATWORK]
OnceagainBBCshowsitsRedRootstogetherwithUEFA'sPocketsFullofMiracles(akaRussianCash).RUthugsandPutinterroristssneakflaresintothegame,thenstorm(asin"troopers")theBritsand
they'rethreatenedwithequalpunishment.
It'snolongerjustafailureofcouragetoidentifytheattackeranddistinguishtheattackerfromthevictim.It'sjustmore"practical",asinnotoffendingthehandthatfeedsyournewsportscar.
ThecancerofRussia'sendemiccorruptionhasfullypenetratednotonlytheBBCbutalsothesportsworldatalmostalllevels.WeknowaboutTennis,theOlympicsandSoccer.It'sonlyamatteroftimebeforeit
spreadstoUSAsportsaswell.DoyouthinkPutin'sgangstershaven'tnoticedthehugecashflowinUSAbettingonfootball?Howlongbeforetheydecidetogetmorethantheirfairshare?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36510550
ADD:
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/russian-hooligans-savage-organised-england-fans-marseille-euro-2016
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/12/world/euro-2016-england-russia-violence/index.html
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/522454/Russia-England-St-George-Stolen-Flags-Gloat-Violence-Euro-2016-Hooligans
Subject:Ukrainegayrightstensionmirrorspost-Maidanupheaval-BBCNews[LONDONGRADAGAIN][ED:Turnedouttobea(consciousorunconscious)'falseflag'story]
AsBBCturnsitselfinsideouttofindfaultwithanythingandeverythingUkrainian,GayPrideDayinUkrainepassedwithoutincident.Noonewasattacked.Noonewasinjured.Noonewaskilled.
Onecan'tfailtonoticethereisNoGayRightsDayinRussia.Rather,inPutin'sNaziRussia,justlikeinHitler'sNaziGermany,gaysareofficiallypersecuted.
And,mostpainfulofall,thetragedyonGayRightsDayintheUSA,thehorrificslaughterinOrlando.Some300attacked.50dead.53injured.
From:VRT
Date:Sun,Jun12,2016at10:35AM
Subject:FT/NEILB:Russia:Magnitskysbitterlegacy[ED:GOODSTORY--LOUSYHEADER]TELEGRAPH/KEITHB:100000fleecrimeaasrussiatightensgrip
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1eb38914-2ca4-11e6-a18d-a96ab29e3c95.html
Russia:Magnitskysbitterlegacy
MaxSeddonandNeilBuckley
FT
ThestoryofSergeiMagnitskys2009deathbecame,formanyinthewest,anallegoryofVladimirPutinsRussiabrutal,oppressiveandcorrupt.The37-year-
oldaccountantwasfounddead,hisbodybearingbruises,inaMoscowprisoncellhavingbeendetainedfornearlyayearoveraccusationsoftaxevasion.Hisreal
crime,saysupporters,wasexposinga$230mtheftfromtheRussiantreasurybyofficialslinkedtoacriminalgang.
By2012theUSCongresshadpassedtheMagnitskyAct,imposingsanctionsondozensofRussiansimplicatedinthecrime,andsendingrelationsbetweenthe
USandRussiatoathenpost-coldwarlow.Now,amideffortstoextendthatlegislationworldwide,thelateaccountantisagainatthecentreofabattlethatmoves
toWashingtononMondaywiththeairingofafilmthatchallengestheestablishedMagnitskystory.
Thedocumentary,calledTheMagnitskyActBehindtheScenes,isscheduledtopremieretoaninvitedaudience.PreviousattemptstoairitattheEuropean
ParliamentinBrusselsinAprilandafestivalinNorwaylastweekhavebeenhaltedbylegalstepspursuedbyBillBrowder,thefundmanagerwhoemployed
theaccountantandhasledacrusadetohavehisdeathreinvestigated.MrBrowderandtheMagnitskyfamilysaythefilm,byRussian-borndirectorAndrei
Nekrasov,isfalseanddefamatory.
RussianTVcrewsattheBrusselsscreening,however,reportedthecancellationasawesterncover-up.TheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteeinWashingtonwill
soonholdahearingontheissueattheurgingofDanaRohrabacher,aRepublicancongressmanknownasthebiggestofMrPutinsfewsympathisersonCapitol
Hill.
ThefilmscriticssayitispartofthemostdeterminedassaultyetontheMagnitskyActandtheBrowderstorythatinspiredit.RussianstateTVincreasingly
describesMrBrowderasaCIA-linkedbogeymantryingtobringdownthecountry.RussiansfacinglegalactioninNewYorkforallegedlylaunderingpartofthe
fraudproceedsarefightingbackbycallingtheBrowderaccountasham.AfreshlobbyingeffortinWashingtonsomeofwhichcanbetracedbacktoMoscow
isseekingtostopaglobalMagnitskyActthatwouldallowsanctionstobeimposedonhumanrightsabusersfromanycountry.
GunnarEkelove-SlydaloftheNorwegianHelsinkiCommittee,ahumanrightsgroup,suggestsitisprioritynumberoneforRussiatoblockaglobalactorat
leastremovetheMagnitskyname,whichhesayshascometosymbolisealltheproblems...inRussia.ItisalsoanxioustoblockanysimilarmeasuresbyEU
states.
ThisisnotsomethingtheKremlinlikes,hesays.Itcanhaverealconsequencesforpeopleintheelite.
Russianrelations
TheMagnitskymeasures,passedovertheobjectionsofaWhiteHousethenattemptingtoresetrelationswithMoscow,werethebiggestirritantinUS-Russian
relationsuntilthe2014Ukrainecrisis.Theassetfreezesandvisabanspioneeredanewwayoftargetinghumanrightsabusersacrossborders.
ThestoryoftheaccountantsdeathhelpedcementwesternperceptionsofalawlessRussiawherepolicecancolludewithcriminalstodefraudthestate,murder
honestinvestigators,andgetawaywithit.ProsecutorsfiledchargesagainsttwoprisonofficialsformistreatingMagnitsky,butdroppedthemaftertheactgained
tractioninCongress.
MrBrowderscriticssuggestheeithercookeduptheMagnitskystoryasanalibitopreventhisextraditiononRussiantaxevasionchargeswhichhesayswere
politicallymotivatedorthatheandcolleaguescarriedoutthefraudthemselves.Giventhathehasspentyearsurgingmultiplejurisdictionstoinvestigatethe
fraudandfreezeitsproceeds11countrieshaveopenedprobes,andsixhavefrozenassetsMrBrowdersaysthatideaispreposterous.
Thisisasmearcampaign,hesays.Allthesepeopleareconnected.ItsallpartofanFSBoperationtodiscreditme,hesays,referringtoRussiassuccessorto
theKGBsecurityservice.
Thecampaignappearslessco-ordinatedthanMrBrowdersuggestsandmoreofamulti-facetedeffortbygroupswithsharedinterests,someofwhomhavebeen
incontactwithoneanother.ThesegroupsdenybeingbackedordirectedbyMoscow.ButtheyareprovidingammunitionfortheKremlin.
SergeiLavrov,Russiasforeignminister,toldaMoscownewspaperlastweek:Agreatnumberoffactshaveappearedincludingdocumentaryfilmswhich,by
theway,areforbiddenfrombeingshowninEuropeforsomereasonconfirmingthatthedeathofSergeiMagnitskywasalltheresultofenormoustrickeryby
this...Browder,whoisanunscrupulousswindler.
MrBrowderwasforseveralyearsthelargestforeignportfolioinvestorinRussiaandavocalPutinsupporter,untilhewasbarredfromthecountrywithno
formalexplanationin2005.HeandhisassociatesbelievehiscampaignstoimproveRussiancorporategovernancehadangeredpowerfulpeople.
ThefundmanagerallegesacriminalgroupincludingtaxofficialsandpoliceusedcorporatesealsseizedinaraidontheremnantsofhisHermitageinvestment
fundin2007tore-registerthreesubsidiariesofthefundundertheircontrol.Hesaysthegroupbroughtlegalcasestomanufacturehuge,fakeliabilitiesagainst
thesubsidiaries.Thisenabledthemtoclaimfraudulenttaxrefundsworth$230m,whichtheythensquirrelledawaythroughanonymouswesternoffshore
companies.
Magnitsky,anaccountantthoughMrBrowdercallshimhislawyer,ashesometimesrepresentedHermitageincourtgaveevidenceaboutthefraudto
police,butwaslaterarrestedbytheverypeoplehewasinvestigating,andaccusedoftaxevasion.Afterayearinjail,andsufferingfromgallstonesand
pancreatitis,hewasfounddeadinhiscell.Theofficialcauseofdeathwasgivenasaheartattack.
TheBrowdercampaigntopublicisethefraudandseekjusticeforMagnitskyhaslongmadehimahatefigurefortheKremlin.InApril,aRussianstateTV
channelairedthefifthfilm-lengthattackonMrBrowderinthreeyears.ItclaimedtheUS-bornfundmanager,nowaUKcitizen,wasanMI6operative
codenamedAgentSolomon,whohadrecruitedoppositionleaderAlexeiNavalnyinanoperationtodestroyRussia.
Thefilmappearedacrudefake,withmistakesinbasicEnglishinsecretCIAdocumentsshownasevidenceofitsassertions.Italsoseemedtohavebeen
rushedoutinthewakeofarevelationinthePanamaPapersthat$2bnhadpassedthroughanetworkofoffshorecompaniesnominallycontrolledbySergei
Roldugin,acellistfriendofMrPutin.OneofthegroupsinvolvedinthePanamaPapersinvestigationlaterreportedthatsomeMagnitskyfraudmoneyhad
passedthroughpartofthesamenetwork.
MrBrowderandMrNavalnybelievetheyarebeingtargetedbyYuriChaika,Russiasprosecutor-general.Latelastyear,MrChaikaclaimedafilminvestigation
byMrNavalnythatlinkedtheprosecutorsfamilyanddeputiestoRussiasmostnotoriouscriminalganghadbeenproducedbyorderofMrBrowderandthe
CIA,aclaimdismissedasabsurdbybothmen.
TheNewYorkconnection
OutsideRussiathemostvigorousefforttodiscredittheMagnitskystoryhastakenplaceinaNewYorkcourt,whereacompanyownedbya39-year-oldRussian,
DenisKatsyv,isfacingcivilforfeiturechargesforpurchasingrealestatewith$14mallegedlylaunderedfromtheMagnitskyfraud.MrKatsyv,whosefatheris
vice-presidentofthestate-ownedRussianRailways,deniestheallegations,whichdonotincludecriminalcharges.Theprosecutionscaseislargelybasedon
documentationofwiretransfersprovidedbyMrBrowder.
Incourtfilings,lawyersforMrKatsyvscompany,PrevezonHoldings,identifywhattheysayareholesinHermitagesaccountofthefraud.ApingMrBrowders
campaign,theKatsyvcamphashiredlobbyistsandpublicrelationsconsultantstourgemediatoreportonitsclaims.Oneadviser,NataliaVeselnitskaya,a
RussiandefencelawyerandfriendoftheKatsyvfamilyaswellasavocalPutinsupporterclaimsMrBrowdersstoryisasham.
ImtherealinvestigativelawyerthatheistryingtobuildMagnitskyinto,shetoldtheFinancialTimes.Itseasytocheck.Youjusthavetoseeifthedates,
events,andconsequencesmatchup,andalwaysaskyourself:Whobenefitsfromthesethingshappening?
Initsfilings,PrevezonsuggestsMrBrowdercontrivedandskilfullysoldhisstorytothwarthisarrestinconnectionwiththetaxfraudcaseforwhichhewas
convictedinabsentiain2013,inproceedingsthatalsosawMagnitskyconvictedposthumously.ThecompanyaddsthatitisplausibleBrowderstolethemoney
fromtheRussiantreasuryor,atleast,knewaboutthefraudbeforeitoccurred.
TheUSjusticedepartmentrespondedinacounterfilingthatPrevezonsaccusationsthatHermitagewastheperpetrator,ratherthanthevictim,ofthefraudare
falseandarebasedonanincrediblyselectiveandinaccuratepresentationoftheevidence.
Makingacase
MsVeselnitskayaprovidesacommonlinktootherpartsoftheanti-Browdercampaign.ShehelpedorganisetheBrusselsscreeningofMrNekrasovsfilm.Her
claimsalsodovetailinpartwiththoseofthefilm-maker,whosedocumentaryusessomematerialfromPrevezonsdefence.
MrNekrasovhasareputationasaPutincriticsomuchsothathesaysMsVeselnitskayawasreluctanttospeaktohim.Hesayshesetouttomakea
MagnitskytheherofilmafterinterviewingMrBrowderin2010.Butasfilmingproceededhebegantohavedoubts.
AllIwantistoaskquestions,hesays.IhavereallybeenasolidoppositionguyinRussia...andImstillhavingproblemswiththefactthattheRussianmedia
istryingtoinstrumentaliseme.Imlosingsleepoverit.
AswiththePrevezonfilings,MrNekrasovsfilmpointstoallegedanomaliesintheBrowderstory.HeclaimsMagnitskydidnotdirectlyaccusepoliceofficersof
the$230mfraudasMrBrowderhadalleged,intwopoliceinterviewsin2008,anddidnotevennametheminoneofthoseinterviews.Russiantranscriptsofthe
interviews,however,showMagnitskydidaccusethem,directlyandimplicitly,andhedidsoagaininhandwrittennotesfromprisonlater.
TheNekrasovfilmalsodisputeswhetherMagnitskywasreallybeaten,ordeliberatelymistreated,inprison,ashissupportershaveclaimed.
LyudmilaAlexeyeva,an88-year-oldhumanrightsveteran,tookpartinanindependentinquirythatfoundevidencetheaccountantsufferedaviolentdeathand
sheremainsconvincedinthejudgment.
Thosebehindthefilm,MsAlexeyevatoldaRussiannewspaper,wantedtoshowthateverythingthatwassaidfirstbyMagnitsky,thenthePanamaPapers,is
nonsense.Youseetheyneedtogetsanctionslifted.TheydecidedtostartbyrepudiatingtheMagnitskylist.
ThePrevezoncaseandtheNekrasovfilmhavebeguntoinfluencelobbyingactivityintheUSCongress.MrRohrabacher,whochairstheHousesubcommittee
onEurope,Eurasiaandemergingthreats,ledadelegationtotheRussiancapitalinApril.AspeechwriterforRonaldReagan,MrRohrabacherhasembraced
whattheformerpresidentoncecalledtheevilempire.
FundmanagerseeksinquiryintoinflowofallegedRussiandirtymoney
MrRohrabachertoldtheFTthatwhilehewasinMoscow,KonstantinKosachev,aseniormemberofRussiasupperhouse,askedifhewouldatleasttakea
lookatsomethingthatourprosecutorswouldliketheAmericanstoknowabout,relatedtotheMagnitskycase.Thecongressmanmetprosecutorsworkingfor
MrChaikawhohandedhimadossierthatreferredtomaterialsfromtheNewYorklegalcase.MrRohrabacherbecameawareoftheNekrasovdocumentarysoon
afterwards.
IdonttakeanythingourprosecutorsintheUSsayastruewithoutquestion,muchlessprosecutorsinRussia,hesays.ButIamopentobothsides.Iwantto
heartheothersideaswell.
Arguingthatnewinformationshouldbetakenintoconsideration,MrRohrabachersoughttodelaytheglobalMagnitskyActandthenattempted,
unsuccessfully,toremoveMagnitskyfromitsname.ThebillwasultimatelypassedbytheHouseForeignAffairscommitteeinMay.
MrEkelove-SlydalwarnsthatiflobbyingeffortsagainsttheMagnitskyActsucceedingeneratingconfusionaroundit,thatcouldaccentuatedivisionsinEurope
overwhethertorenewsanctionsonRussiarelatedtoUkraine.
IfyoucanconfusetheMagnitskycase,youcanmaybemakeanargumentthatsanctionsarenotthebestwaytoaddresspoliticalissues,hesays.
RELATEDTOPICS
UnitedStatesofAmerica,
VladimirPutin
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/100000-flee-crimea-as-russia-tightens-grip/
100,000flee'worseningoppression'asRussiatightensgriponCrimea

MaskedmenactinginthenameofRussiatakeoveranadministrativebuildinginCrimea'scapital,Simferopol,in2014.CREDIT:AFP
DavidBlair,chiefforeigncorrespondent,kiev
11JUNE20167:29PM
Russia'soccupationofCrimeahascausedabout100,000peopletofleetheterritory-twiceasmanyashadbeenthought-accordingtonewfigurescompiledbyaUkrainiancharity.
Thenumberoffugitiveshasjumpedinthelasttwomonthsbecauseof"worseningrepression".
FromthemomentthatRussiantroopsfannedoutacrossCrimeaandseizedtheregionfromUkraineinMarch2014,thosewhowereunwillingtoaccepttheKremlin'srulebeganto
leave.MostsettledelsewhereinUkraine,includingthecapital,Kiev.
Newevidencesuggeststhisexoduswassignificantlylargerthanhadbeenthought.About21,000peoplefromCrimeaareofficiallyregisteredinUkraineas"internallydisplaced",but
manymoreareknowntobeundocumented.
ThetotalnumberoffugitivesfromCrimeawasprobablybetween50,000and60,000,accordingtotheInternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre,aGeneva-basedgroup.
RussianSukhoijetsconductaerobaticdisplaysoverCrimeaCREDIT:TASS
ButTamilaTasheva,theco-founderandcoordinatorofCrimeaSOS,aUkrainiancharity,saidtherealfigurewasashighas100,000."Therearemoreandmorepeopleleaving
Crimeaastherepressionbecomesworse,"shesaid."Ourofficesarefullofrequestsandapplicationsforhelpforpeopleandtheirchildren."
ThenewestimateisbasedondatadisclosedbyUkraine'sauthorities.BetweenJanuary2015andAprilthisyear,therewasanetmovementof73,100peopleoutofCrimeaandinto
theadjacentregionofUkraine,accordingtotheNationalBorderGuardService.
ThatperioddoesnotincludethefirstninemonthsofRussia'soccupation,northerenewedoutflowthathasoccurredsinceApril.HenceMsTashevaplacestherealtotaloffugitives
ataround100,000.
Asforwhythisistakingplace,campaignerspointtoRussia'sescalatingcampaignagainstdissent.ArrestsandunexplaineddisappearanceshavebecomeroutineinCrimea.No-oneis
regardedwithgreatersuspicionthantheTatarminority,a230,000-strongcommunityviewedastheoriginalinhabitantsoftheterritory.
PresidentVladimirPutin,whoorderedtheoccupationofCrimeain2014CREDIT:AP
In1944,theTatarsweredeportedfromCrimeaandresettledinSovietCentralAsia.Theylivedinexileuntilthe1980s,whenMikhailGorbachevallowedthemtoreturn.Having
sufferedsogrievouslyatthehandsoftheKremlin,TatarsarepresumedtoopposethereturnofRussianrule.
Alim,a17-year-oldTatar,isoneofthefugitivesfromCrimea.Alongwithhisfamily,heleftforthesafetyofKievayearago."ItwasuncomfortablebeinginCrimea-Iwasafraidto
saysomethingwrong,"heexplained."IwasstudyinginaUkrainianschoolandtheyconverteditintoaRussianschoolwiththeRussianlanguage."
Alimadded:"IwasafraidbecauseIhadpro-Ukrainianviews.TheRussiansecurityforceswereeverywhere.Iftheyhearyousayingsomethingwrongthen,Idon'tknow,there
couldbeabadreaction."
ItwasuncomfortablebeinginCrimea-Iwasafraidtosaysomethingwrong/Alim,a17-year-oldTatar
Alim,whodidnotwishhisfullnametobedisclosed,saidthathewasafraidtoreturn."MostofthepeopleIknowmovedhere[toKiev]aftertheannexation-notjustTatarsbut
Ukrainiansaswell.ImissCrimea,butI'mnotgoingtogoback."
Theevidencesuggeststhatthepaceofdeparturesisquickeningagain.LastNovember,theKievofficeofCrimeaSOSreceivedonly14requestsforhelpfromdisplacedpeople.The
followingmonth,December2015,itrecordednorequestsatall.
ButinAprilthisyear,bycontrast,183peoplecontactedthecharitytoaskforassistance.Another97didsoinMay."ThereisanatmosphereoffearinCrimea-that'swhycitizens
feelforcedtoleave,"saidMsTasheva.
Lastyear,RussiapreventedtheOrganisationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE)fromsendingahumanrightsassessmentmissiontoCrimea.Thegroupgathered
evidenceelsewhereinUkraineandinterviewedpeopleremotelyinsideCrimea.TheyconcludedthatRussianrulehad"dramaticallyimpacted"onthe"humanrightsand
fundamentalfreedoms"ofallresidentsofCrimea,particularlythose"whowereopposedtotheannexation".
However,RussiapointstoUkraine'sownbehaviourtoexplainanyhardships.LastNovember,Ukraine'sgovernmentcutoffCrimea'selectricity,leavingtheregionindarknessfor
overtwoweeks.RussiahassincebeenabletoguaranteeCrimea'spowersupply.
ButMsTashevapointedoutthatRussia,astheoccupyingpower,haslegalresponsibilityforthewelfareoftheregion'speople."OfcoursewemightnameUkraineasresponsible
becausetheydon'tmakelifeeasierforthepeopleofCrimea,"shesaid."ButRussiaisultimatelyresponsiblebecausetheyareoccupyingtheterritory."
From:SeanachieHolodonika<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Subject:Don'tlettherusskiisgetcockyabouthowtheywonthewar
To:WEMAIL<lemistefan@gmail.com>,RomanKarpishkaEmail<karpishka@yahoo.com>,MYKOLAKOTCHERHA<cambat@earthlink.net>,LesiaChernihivska<lesiachernihivska@gmail.com>,Wyatt
Email<vegasuclawrma@earthlink.net>,AlexMotyl<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,"AndrijBaran,MD"<LITZARS@msn.com>,Yaromyr@aol.com,AlexanderKuzma,40MORE
Hi,
AsfollowuptooneofmypoemsofrecentweeksrehowLend-LeasehelpedtheSovskickalotofNazibuttduringthewar,IhavebeenreadingoneofthesurprisinglyfewbooksabouttheLend-Leaseprogram:
_Lend-Lease:weaponforvictory_byEdwardR.Stettinius,Jr.(NY:TheMacmillanCo.,1944):OCLC:394271.
Bysummer1942,hewrites,"...Wehadshippedmorethan2000lightandmediumtanksand1300planes.TheBritishsentevenmore--over2400tanksandover1800planes.
"TheplanesthatwenttoRussiaMoscowprotocolwereCurtissP-40fighters,NorthAmerican-B-25Mitchell's,andDouglasDB-7divebombersandthelaterA-20attackbombers.TheRussiansare
enormouslyimpressedwiththeperformanceofourA-20s(207-208).
InterestingregardingtheexpansionoftheGulagcampsthatcoexistedwithrigorsofthewar,"Asecondmilitaryitemisbarbedwire,ofwhichwehavesent216,000milesofit"(209).
SolzhenitsynwroteaboutheandLevKopelevworkedinaspecialprisononvoiceprintanalysis,asawayauthenticatingwhosaidwhattowhominwartimecommunications,butwhichtechnologyStalinalso
madeuseofininterceptingandidentifyingwhosaidwhattowhominciviliantelephonecommunications,thenusedasevidenceinvariousarrests."Asidefromtheseitems--planes,tanks,trucks,andjeeps--we
havesentrelativelylittlefightingequipmenttotheSoviet,withthreeimportantexceptions.Thefirstisfieldtelephoneequipmentandtelephonewire.OnereasontheSovietforceshavebeenabletomaintaingood
communicationsallalonglive2000milesfrontisthefactthatwehavesent189,000fieldtelephonesandover670,000Milesofwire--enoughtogoaroundtheworld27times"(209).Thatkindofbigquestion
whyastheyadvancedback-and-forthacrossoccupiedareasincludingtheirshareofGermany,whydidtheytearupeverythingthatwasn'tnaileddownandalotthatwas,bywayoftelephonepolesandwire,
railroadties,etc.DidtheyNeedthiswireandstuff,orweretheyjustbeingdestructivelycovetous?
AsNapoleonandHitlerbothlearned,GeneralsMudandSnowcausedendlesssufferingandverymanydeathsamongtheforcesill-cladforthesevereweather."thebootswhichwehavesenttoRussiahave
madeupanessentialpartoftheredArmy'sequipment.AnyonewhoiseverseenphotographsofcapturedNazisoldiersontheRussianfront,withtheirfrozenorgangrenousfeetwrappedinbloodycloths,can
understandhowimportantgoodfootwearisinthefightingthere.TheRedArmymusthavebootscapableofwithstandingtheheavysnowintheextremecoldofRussianwintersinthedeepmudofspringandfall.
Livestocklossesduring1941campaignresultedinacriticalshortageofleatherinRussia,andwesent10,500tonsofshoeloatherundertheMoscowProtocol[Acopyofwhichisintheappendixofthisbook]
ButRussia'sfactories,evenwiththishelp,couldnotkeepupwiththeRedArmy'sneedsandwesentatthesametime1,500,000pairsofAmerican-madearmyboots.Sincethenourshipmentshaverisento4
millionpairs.AndGreatBritainhassentanother3millionpairs.
"Besidesthestandardboots,theRedArmyaskedifwecouldsupply'Vitiajnye'boots,ahighleather,felt-linedtypeofRussianbootwhichiswonderfullywatertight.Suchbootshavebeenmadebyhandfor
centuriesinRussiaforuseinmeltingsnowandicenowwesoughttomaketheminquantitiesbymodernfactorymethods.Itwasadifficultjob,butwefinallydiscoveredamanintheUnitedStateswhoknewall
aboutthesubject.[andhere'sthewrypart]HewastheformerheadoftheTsar'sbootfactory.WeaskedhishelpinmakingbootsfortheSoviet.Hewenttowork,andamachineprocessformakingtheboots
wasquicklyperfected.RedArmymenarewearingthemtoday"(210).
Howwrythatsomeonewhoprobablyhadtofleethecountrytosavehisownlifeandthatofhislovedones(nodoubt),endedupbeingtheveryfellowabletoprovidewhat"thegreatStalin"andhisminions
couldn't--orwouldn't.
Justsaying!
Cher
CherylA.Madden,
OrderofPrincessOlha
Letusdaretoread,
Think,write,
Andspeak."
~JohnAdams~
(1735-1826)
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryofthewarTalksSanctionsUkraineforcesUkrainepolityRussiansocietyRussianpolityNATONuclearBelarusKazakhstanGeorgiaSport
To:
TheSMMobservedmoreceasefireviolationsinbothDonetskandLuhanskregionscomparedtothepreviousday.SeveralexplosionsoccurredinthevicinityoftheSMMnearStanytsiaLuhanskabridge.The
Missioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofheavyweaponsitalsonotedarmouredcombatvehicles,ananti-aircraftgunandanunmannedaerialvehicleinthesecurityzone.
TwoUkrainiansoldierskilled,tenwoundedasmilitantslaunchdozensofattacksalongthefrontline
http://uatoday.tv/politics/two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-ten-wounded-as-militants-launch-dozens-of-attacks-along-the-frontline-670981.html
ATOHQ:RussianproxiesattackUkraine49timesinlastday
http://www.unian.info/war/1372996-ato-hq-russian-proxies-attack-ukraine-49-times-in-last-day.html
Russiadeploystanks,infantryfightingvehicles,self-propelledartilleryunitsinKhartsyzk
http://www.unian.info/war/1372680-russia-deploys-tanks-infantry-fighting-vehicles-self-propelled-artillery-units-in-khartsyzk.html
Historyofthewar
RemainsofRussianarmyservicemenfoundinUkraine'seast
http://uatoday.tv/society/remains-of-russian-army-servicemen-found-in-ukraine-s-east-670822.html
Talks
Ukraine'sSavchenko:WithoutPeace,TheWar'WillLastForever'
Butafterherexperienceonthefrontlineofthewar,inRussiancaptivity,andvisitingeasternUkrainerecently,shesayssuchdirecttalksarecrucial,asareconciliatorystepslikeanamnestyforlocalswhotookup
armsagainstKyivbutdidnotcommitseriouscrimes.
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-savchenko-interview-conflict-elections-sanctions-russia/27791997.html
WhiteHouseAideSaysDealToEndUkraineConflictPossibleByYear'sEnd
TheWhiteHouseispushingforimplementationofadealtoendtheconflictineasternUkrainebeforePresidentBarackObamaleavesoffice,national-securityadviserSusanRicehassaid.
http://www.rferl.org/content/white-house-aide-rice-says-russia-ukraine-peace-possible-by-yearend-implement-minsk-deal/27789793.html
Sanctions
PutinIsTryingToBullyEuropeIntoDroppingSanctions
AtopgoalofRussianforeignpolicyistoerodeWesternoppositiontoitsaggressioninUkraine.ButmanyofMoscowstacticsareclumsyandself-defeating.Notsurprisingly,theEuropeanUnionislikelyonce
againtorenewsanctions.
[]
ButRussiasoveralleffortisweakenedbyinternalcontradictions.
HowhasMoscowerred?SeeingEuropeansasweak,unprincipledandgullible,theKremlinangersanddismaysthembyitswaronUkraineandassociatedpropaganda.Asimilarerrorintheearly1980scaused
MoscowtofailtoachieveitstopforeignpolicygoaldissuadingNATOfromdeployingIntermediate-RangeNuclearForces(INF)missilesinEuropeasacountertocomparableSovietSS-20missiles.
http://europe.newsweek.com/putin-trying-bully-europe-dropping-sanctions-468479
[SentbyStefanForss]
Ukraine,RussiaandtheEU:BreakingthedeadlockintheMinskprocess
GiventhepersistentdeadlockintheUkrainecrisis,theleadersoftheEUoughttoagreetoprolongthesanctionsagainstRussia,pushfortherenegotiationoftheMinskIIagreementandwidentheNormandy
formattoincludetheUSandbolsterreformsinUkraine.
http://www.ceps.eu/publications/ukraine-russia-and-eu-breaking-deadlock-minsk-process
WhyEUSanctionsonRussiaAreOverratedbutStillNeeded
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-eu-sanctions-on-russia-and-their-possible-cancellation-are-overrated-but-still-needed#.V1vnhvQP_pk.twitter
Ukraineforces
ForeignersallowedtoserveinUkraine'sarmy
http://uatoday.tv/society/foreigners-allowed-to-serve-in-ukraine-s-army-670559.html
Ukrainepolity
APInterview:SavchenkoCallsForEarlyElectionsInUkraine
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE_SAVCHENKO?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Russiansociety
WhenRussiaglimpsedfreedomforamoment
ByDavidE.Hoffman
WhenprotestsbytheyoungandmiddleclassbrokeoutinMoscowagainstPutinin2011,hewasangryandrattled.HissubsequentwarinUkrainewasaccompaniedbyanever-more-destructivepropaganda
campaignontelevisionandelsewhereinwhichanti-AmericanismwasdrilledintothemindsoftheRussianpeople.Thishellcannotendpeacefully,thereformerBorisNemtsov,whoopposedthewar,wroteon
FacebookinMay2014.Tenmonthslaterhewasmurdered,shotintheback,justbeyondtheKremlinwalls.
ItisaterriblysadendingtotheepochofRussianfreedom,butOstrovskyassertsthatthiscannotbethelastturnofevents.HequotesthelateeconomistYegorGaidar,whooncesaidthatbigchangeshappen
laterthanwethinkbutearlierthanweexpect.InRussia,certainly.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/when-russia-glimpsed-freedom-for-a-moment/2016/06/09/0ba58d8c-0192-11e6-b823-707c79ce3504_story.html
RussiaFacingBiggestBrainDraininTwoDecades
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-facing-biggest-brain-drain-in-two-decades/571758.html
TVlistingsinRussiannewspaperswarnaboutgovernmentpropaganda
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/10/tv-listings-in-russian-newspapers-warn-about-government-propaganda/#

Russianpolity
RussianEliteNotOnlyBelievesItsOwnPropagandaButisBasingItsActionsonIt,NewRussianDocumentShows
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.no/2016/06/russian-elite-not-only-believes-its-own.html
NATO
ASchengenZoneforNATO
WhytheAllianceNeedsOpenBordersforTroops
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-06-06/schengen-zone-nato
Nuclear
WhatExactlyWouldItMeantoHaveTrumpsFingerontheNuclearButton?
Anuclearlaunchexpertplaysoutthevariousscenarios.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/2016-donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-missiles-nukes-button-launch-foreign-policy-213955#ixzz4BNCl3O5T
Belarus
U.S.extendssanctionsagainstBelarus
http://uatoday.tv/politics/u-s-extends-sanctions-against-belarus-670954.html
Kazakhstan
NazarbayevontheRocks:'Terror,''Coup'ClaimsShakeKazakhstan
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/571550.html
Georgia
GeorgianNATOCooperationLaidLowByChickenPox
Sport
'Disgusted'UEFAinvestigatesRussianfanviolenceatEuro2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-soccer-euro-security-idUSKCN0YY0D9
[TherewasalotofviolencebyEnglishsupportersoutsidethegroundaswell]
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
Senttime: 06/11/201612:55:16PM
FW:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSeaRussiandefence
Subject:
industryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria..[ANT/F]*****...
Subject:Fwd:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSea
RussiandefenceindustryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria..[ANT/F]
*****...
Date:Sat,Jun11,2016at2:45AM
Subject:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBaltics
BlackSeaRussiandefenceindustryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclear
Syria..[ANT/F]********[Putin&]Brexit/Russia'slinksto"farright"AfD.[AB]PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:No
Money,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability
Date:Fri,Jun10,2016at7:30PM
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSeaRussiandefenceindustry
USprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria
To:
TheSMMobservedfewerceasefireviolationsinDonetskregioncomparedwiththepreviousdayandsomeceasefireviolations
inLuhanskregioncomparedwithnonethepreviousday.WhilstatStanytsiaLuhanskabridge,incomingfireimpactedabout100
metresfromSMMsposition.TheSMMobservedcratersanddamagecausedbyshellinginDonetskcityandotherareas.The
Missioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofweapons,andnotedheavyweaponsinviolationofthewithdrawallinesitalso
notedarmouredcombatvehiclesandanti-aircraftweaponsinthesecurityzone.ArmedDPRmemberscontinuedtokeepthe
powersupplytoSMMsrepeaterinDonetskcitydisconnectedandtheSMMfacedfouradditionalrestrictionsofitsfreedomof
movement,mainlyinareasnotcontrolledbytheGovernment.

ICRCstatement:Ukrainecrisis:Intensifyinghostilitiesendangercivilianlivesandinfrastructure
http://www.icrc.org/en/document/ukraine-crisis-intensifying-hostilities-endanger-civilian-lives-and-infrastructure
RussianproxiesattackUkraine46timesinlastdayThecombinedRussian-separatistforcesattackedUkrainianarmypositionsin
easternUkraine46timesinthepast24hours,accordingtothepresscenteroftheAnti-TerroristOperation(ATO)Headquarters.
http://www.unian.info/war/1371386-russian-proxies-attack-ukraine-46-times-in-last-day.html
Russianforces
AdmiralGrigorovichfrigatearrivesinSevastopol
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2016/06/09/Admiral-Grigorovich-frigate-arrives-in-
Sevastopol/1481465476538/?spt=su&or=btn_tw
TheDoubleSting
ApowerstrugglebetweenRussiasrivalsecurityagencies.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/27/the-double-sting
Russialaunchesthefirstmilitaryicebreakerforoperationinthearcticregion
http://defence-blog.com/news/russia-launches-the-first-military-icebreaker-for-operation-in-the-arctic-region.html
NewRussianmilitarybasenearBelarusneededfor"protection"fromUkraineRussianAmbassador
http://www.unian.info/politics/1370721-new-russian-military-base-near-belarus-needed-for-protection-from-ukraine-russian-
ambassador.html
VideoofRussianarmour,troopsclosetoUkraineandBelarusbordersinKlintsy,Brianskoblast
http://youtu.be/qJfvDn5EsCE
NATOEU
BigBrusselsneighbors,oncewary,steppingupcooperation
TheybothhavetheirheadquartersinBelgiumscapitalandtheyprofessmanyofthesamevaluesandgoals,butuntilrecentlythe
NATOdefenseallianceandtheEuropeanUnioneconomicblochaveactedlikewaryneighborswithlittletosaytooneanother.
Thatsdespitethefactthat22prosperousWesterndemocracieswithmorethan450millioncitizensaremembersofboth
organizations,andbothhavebeenkeytobuildingandkeepingthepostwarorderinWesternEurope.
Thissummer,theoldstandoffishwaysaretochangedramaticallyandthekeywordwillbecooperation,primarilybecauseof
Russiasnewmilitarymightandassertiveness,thethreatofarmedIslamicextremismandEuropescontinuingmigrationcrisis.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/big-brussels-neighbors-once-wary-stepping-up-
cooperation/2016/06/08/c25acca4-2d61-11e6-b9d5-3c3063f8332c_story.html?tid=ss_tw
[SentbyStefanForss]
Baltics
Latviantroopscannowdowndronesspottedovermilitarybases
http://uatoday.tv/politics/latvian-troops-can-now-down-drones-over-military-bases-669807.html
BlackSea
Russia:WewillrespondtoentryofU.S.navalvesselintoBlackSea
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-ship-idUSKCN0YW0PP
Russiandefenceindustry
RussiaToResolveSupplyOfThreeFrigatesToIndiaByYearEnd
RussiahopestoresolvetheunfinishedsalethepatrolshipstoIndiabyyearend.Russiacouldnotbesupplyallthesixfrigatesto
IndiaasperthedealasUkrainestoppedsupplyofenginesforthefrigatesaftertieswithKievplummeted.
http://linkis.com/www.defenseworld.net/IwWUC
USprocurement

FromStrategyToExecution:AcceleratingTheThirdOffset
Theso-namedquestforconventionalmilitarydeterrenceagainstChinaandRussiathroughthePentagonsuseofgame-changing
technologynowhasabureaucraticbrandinsidetheBeltway.Thethirdoffsetalsohasabudget,some$18billion,tospendon
fulfillingavisionofafutureinwhichelectromagneticrailgunsshootdownhundredsofincomingcruisemissiles,lasersslicethrough
enemywarships,androboticwingmenflyinfirstonthedeadliestmissions.
DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorksaidduringarecentdiscussionattheAtlanticCouncil,Thethirdoffsetissimple.Atits
coreAIandautonomywillleadtoaneweraofhuman-machinecollaboration.
Thisbeguilinglysimplepremise,however,lacksabroadlyunderstoodplantoexecutethisvision.Absentcrystal-clearordersfrom
onhighandwithplentyoftheusualreasonsforinaction,over-cautiousnessislikelytoprevail.Yetfortheboldermembersof
Americasprivatesector,thisisamomentofgreatopportunitytoshapethenextgenerationofmilitaryinnovation.
[]
Onethingiscertain:thetraditional,grindinglyslowwayofdoingbusinesswillnotwork.Speedisessential,andthisrequires
breakingwithstatusquoindefenseprocurement.NeithercompanyexecutivesnorthePentagoncanaffordtowaitforarequest
forinformationtobereleasedandthengothroughmonths,ifnotyears,ofarms-lengthbackandforthbeforeacapabilityisever
fielded.Thethirdoffsetscoretechnologiesaredevelopingtooquicklyforthistobeaviablesolution.
[]
Ofalltheadvantagesthethirdoffsetstrategyismeanttoprovide,thepotentialtodisruptstatusquoprocessesandunproductive
cautionmaybethemostimportant.Butitfacestwomajorhurdles:anewpresidentialadministrationthatmaystartwithablank-
sheetapproachtothinkingaboutthefutureofwarandtheacquisitionsystemsValleyofDeathwheregoodideaswasteaway
intonothingness.
http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/from-strategy-to-execution-accelerating-the-third-offset/
Russianpolity
NationalistsversusPutin
ThenewsthattheinfamousIgorStrelkovhadsetupanAll-RussianNationalistMovement(OND)callingforthegatheringof
Russia,UkraineandBelarusandotherRussianlandsintoasinglestateandmakingtheformerSovietEurasiaanunquestioned
RussianzoneofinfluencepredictablycreatedfeverishspeculationaboutthenationalistbacklashagainstVladimirPutin.Isthisthe
startofaseriouschallenge,thebeginningoftheendforhisregime,theharbingerofabrowncoup?Thehonestansweristhatitis
noneofthesethings.However,itdoesillustratetheemergenceofanationalistcritiqueofPutinismthatmaywellprovesignificantin
thefuture.
[]
Nonetheless,eachtimePutinintrudesintoanewconflictandactivatessomeadventurersandideologues,thereisaprice.Strelkov
isjustthemostfamousoftheangryex-fighterscomingbackfromUkraine.TheKremlinmaybeabletocontrolhowtheseconflicts
arereportedonTV,butnoamountofspincanpreventtheslowgrowthofaconstituencyofformerbelieverswhonowsee
themselvesasbetrayed.
http://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-nationalists-versus-putin-99562/#.V1qCby5Bqc8.twitter
Putin'sCoreSupportBeginstoWaver
Working-classRussianshurtbyrecessionlookforsomeonetoblameinanelectionyear.
Thecurrentelectioncyclecomesamidaneconomiccrisiscausedinlargepartbyearlierdeclinesinoilprices,Russia'skeyexport.
Therecessionhasleftmanyemployerscash-strapped,sendingworkersintothestreetstoprotestunpaidwagesandreduced
workinghours.TheCenterforEconomic&PoliticalReforms,athink-tankclosetotheRussianCommunistParty,reportsan
almosttwofoldincreaseinprotestsinMarchcomparedwithpreviousmonths,asteeprisesincelastyear.
In2011,reform-mindedurbanelitesbridlingunderPutinwereinthevanguard.Thisyear,abroader,poorerdemographicis
expressingdissatisfaction,recentpollsshow.Althoughthosesurveyedsaidthey'relargelypredisposedagainstprotesting,
demonstrationsarebeginningtospreadbeyondthecities.CEPRheadNikolayMironovsaidthismayonlybethebeginning,and
thatthepossibilityexistsforproteststoreachamagnitudeofthosewesawinthelate1980s.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/putin-s-core-support-begins-to-waver
Energy
UkrainesaysRussiangastoopricey
UkrainesaidFridayitwouldnotpurchasenaturalgasfromRussiaatthepriceofferedbyMoscowandinsteadtapEuropean
marketsasitcontinuesitsshifttowardtheWest.
http://en.rfi.fr/wire/20160610-ukraine-says-russian-gas-too-pricey
CentralAsia
TurkmenistanSeeksMilitaryAssistancefromRussiatoPreserveBorderSecurity
http://www.economywatch.com/news/Turkmenistan-Seeks-Military-Assistance-from-Russia-to-Preserve-Border-
Security0610.html
KazakhstanEnlistingEuropeanTechToBuildCaspianNavy
MH17
LastyearshackontheDutchSafetyBoard(investigatingMH17)wasbytheFSB
CyberaanvalOVVwerkvanMoskou
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/25967968/__Moskou_achter_cyberaanval_OVV__.html
CzechRepublic
CzechpresidentisRussia'sTrojanHorse
TheKremlinhasmanyfriendsinEurope-NigelFarageintheUK,FrancesMarineLePenandtheAfDpartyinGermanyto
namejustafew.
Hardlyanyofthemholdexecutivepositions,however.
ThisiswhatoneofRussiasbestfriends,CzechpresidentMilosZeman,bringstothetable.
http://euobserver.com/opinion/133789
Nuclear
Blurringthelinebetweennuclearandnonnuclearweapons:Increasingtheriskofaccidentalnuclearwar?
Inthepastfewmonths,therehavebeenanumberofprovocativeeventsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:RussianjetsbuzzUS
warshipsintheBlackSea.Turkey,aNATOmember,shootsdownaRussianwarplaneinvolvedintheSyriaconflict.Russian
governmentmediatalkpubliclyaboutturningtheUnitedStatestoashes.NATOandRussiabothrepositionmilitaryassetsand
conductexercisesreminiscentofthedarkestdaysoftheColdWar.Allthisraisesfearthatmisplacedbravadoandbrinksmanship
couldleadtotheuseofnuclearweapons.Butthereisasubtler,easilyoverlookedtrendaswell,whichcouldmakethesituation
evenworse:agradualblurringofthelineparticularlyinRussiathatseparatesconventionalweaponsandtheirdeliverysystems
fromtheirnuclearcounterparts.Uncertaintyabouttheactualcapabilityofaweaponsystemcanbeasignificantfactorinmanaging
aconflict,whetherpoliticalormilitary.ThisisprobablythecalculationbehindanumberofRussianprogramsthatareparticularly
vagueabouttheirnucleardimension.
http://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00963402.2016.1170363?platform=hootsuite&journalCode=rbul20
RussianforcesinSyria
RussiaIsRecruitingTheU.S.sRebelAlliesInSyria
ItwasanopensecretthatthecommanderhadoncereceivedcashandweaponsfromtheCIA,partofacovertU.S.program
thatbacksrebelgroupsagainstbothISISandtheSyriangovernmentofBasharal-Assad.
WhenhisbattalionwaseventuallydrivenfromSyriabyitsjihadirivals,likeanumberofU.S.-backedgroups,hepleadedwithhis
U.S.handlersforbettersupport,butitwasntenough.Sohewas,hesaid,outofthegame.
Now,hesaid,sittingataquiettableatthehotel,hehadreceivedanofferthatcouldbringhimbackinandpotentiallymakehim
evenstrongerthanbefore.
Hewasbeingrecruited,hesaid,toworkfortheU.S.srivalinSyria:Russia.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/russia-is-recruiting-the-uss-rebel-allies-in-syria?utm_term=.asaXqRkkg#.qylWo0334
FightinginWesternSyria
U.S.-backedfighters,withairsupport,surroundkeySyriancity
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-backed-fighters-with-air-support-surround-key-syrian-
city/2016/06/10/13fd8a86-2f2b-11e6-9b37-42985f6a265c_story.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
<nestory@juno.com>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,SAMO<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,"yurijazz@gmail.com"
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com"<anh@nyc.rr.com>,
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:****************[Putin&]Brexit/Russia'slinksto"farright"AfD
WhyPutinIsMeddlinginBritainsBrexitVote
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/08/why-putin-is-meddling-in-britain-s-brexit-vote.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
LONDONTheonlybig-namepolsonearthwhothinkBritainshouldleavetheEuropeanUnionareDonaldTrump,
MarineLePen,andVladimirPutin...
Beforeanewironcurtainfalls
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/before-a-new-iron-curtain-falls/2016/06/07/1ada7386-2847-11e6-b989-
4e5479715b54_story.html
INWINSTONChurchillsfamousSinewsofPeaceaddressatWestminsterCollegeinFulton,Mo.,onMarch5,
1946,hewarnedoftwogauntmaraudersstalkingtheworld,warandtyranny.Hedeclaredthatanironcurtain
haddescendeduponEuropeandinsistedthatwemustneverceasetoproclaiminfearlesstonesthegreatprinciples
offreedomandtherightsofman....Hedescribedfreespeech,democracyandruleoflawasthetitledeedsof
freedomandimplored,Letuspreachwhatwepracticeletuspracticewhatwepreach.
...
AnneApplebaum
OnRussia'slinkstoGermany's"farright"AfDparty.missedthisearlier
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-populists-forge-deeper-ties-with-russia-a-1089562.html
AnneApplebaumRetweeted
VladimirPutindestabilisingEUthroughsupportforright-wingpopulists,CzechForMin
warnshttp://app.ft.com/cms/s/3d6b68aa-2d57-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html?sectionid=world
RUversionofthe"Imagine"
maxseddon
HowRussiasavedCrimeafrombeingkilledbyKievNato-Nazis.
AparalleluniversewithinRT'sownparalleluniverse:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwEC1SuhpCo
,,,
2016-
09.06.2016
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/article/27788686.html
,,,
-.
.-
,:
...
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#867[PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:NoMoney,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability]
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com"<anh@nyc.rr.com>
PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:NoMoney,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability
Russiasstate-controlledmediahasrespondedtoWednesdaysreportsofproblemswithfinancingthe
grandioseplansforabridgebetweenRussiaandCrimeawithaflurryofarticlesdenyinganyproblemsor
simplyactingasifitwasbusinessasusual.TheupbeatreportsareonasshakygroundastheKerchBridge
itselfsinceanewreportinformsthattheconstructionworkisinsuredbyanobscureCrimeancompanythat
nobodyhasheardof.
TheKerchStraitBridgehasbeendubbedPutinsBridge,afterRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Itwashe
whowasbehindRussiasinvasionandannexationofCrimea,andheisthereforepersonallyembarrassedby
theoverwhelmingevidencethatCrimeareallyisineverywaydependentonandorganicallylinkedwith
Ukraine.Whateverthedangersandthelikelydamagetotheenvironment,hewillnotabandonplansforthis
bridgeovertheKerchStraitfromRussiatoCrimea.AsCrimeanjournalist(inexile)PavelKazarinputit
afterearlierreportsofdelay,thisisbecauseitsnotonlyanimperialproject,butapersonalone
UkrainehasseveredanyagreementsmadebetweenMoscowandUkrainesdisgracedformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychoverconstructionofabridge.SinceRussiaisnowbuildingitwithoutUkrainianconsent,
itisinbreachofUkrainianandinternationallaw.Withsanctionsinplace,itwouldbeveryfoolishforany
foreigninvestorsorinsurerstohaveanyinvolvementatall.
Noenvironmentalaccountability
Asreportedearlier,theaccelerationofconstructionofthis19kilometrebridgewasorderedwithoutany
environmentalimpactanalysesorpublichearings.
TheKerchStraitisanareaofseismicactivity,withextremelydifficultweatherandgeophysicalconditions.
DaryaGorskova,writingforOpenRussia,reportedinJune2015thatthebillbeingpushedthrough
parliamentmadeitpossibleforthebridgetobedesignedandbuiltsimultaneously.
Permitswereeffectivelytobeissuedonthebasisofanunspecifiedamountofpreparatoryworkand
friendship.
Constructionhadeffectivelyalreadybegunwitheverybodygiventounderstandthattheycouldplungeahead
andworryaboutthepaperworklater.
Shevchenkowarnedthenofthedangersofdoingawaywithenvironmentalimpactanalysesforconstruction
ofahugeengineeringprojectwhichcouldcausemajordamagetotheenvironmentanddisruptthewater
flowoftheBlackSeaandAzovSea.Thosewarningsappeartohaveremainedunheededtothisday.
From: OfficialPTPPoll<admin@turnoutpac.org>
Senttime: 06/10/201602:02:05PM
Subject: YOUTRUMP
NAME:robertotto25@gmail.com|SUPPORTERID:#954882
WouldyouconsidervotingforDonald
TrumpintheGeneralElection?
Yes,Idconsidervotingfor
Trump
No,IwouldNEVERvotefor
Trump
Unsure?Clickhere
Friends,
PresidentObamaandBernieSandersmetyesterdaytodiscussmovingforward
afteralongprimary.
SandershasmadeitclearthatwhileheandClintonhavepronouncedideological
differences,thealternativeisunacceptable.
ManyofBerniesdedicated,loyalsupportersareunderstandablydisappointedin
Clintonspresumptivenomination.
Bernieinspiredagenerationofnewvoterstobelievethattheirvoiceandtheir
votesCANcreatechange.
SoaswemovetotheGeneralElection,weneedtoknowifourVoterTurnout
MovementagreeswithBerniethatdefeatingTrumpshouldbeaforemost
priorityofDemocratseverywhere.
WouldyouconsidervotingforDonald
TrumpintheGeneralElection?
Yes,Idconsidervotingfor
Trump
No,IwouldNEVERvotefor
Trump
Unsure?Clickhere
http://go.turnoutpac.org/Vote-For-Trump
Thanksforyourinput--goDems!
-TheProgressiveTurnoutProject
[1]NBCNews|DemRaceTightensinCaliforniaasClintonBarelyLeadsSanders49%to47%:
Poll|6/2/16
ProgressiveTurnoutProject
P.O.Box215
Northbrook,IL60065-0215
PaidforbytheProgressiveTurnoutProjectandnotauthorizedbyanycandidateor
candidate'scommittee.
Thismessagewassentto:robertotto25@gmail.com|Changeorupdateyouremailaddressbyclickinghere.
TheProgressiveTurnoutProjectisproudlydedicatedtodoingwhatwedobest--connectingwithvotersoneononeandgetting
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Emailsareacrucialwaytostayintouchwithourtopsupporters.Ifwe'regoingtoincreaseturnoutin2016,weneedyouwithus
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donatetohelpfundoureffortstoincreaseDemocraticandProgressiveturnoutinthe2016Election,pleaseclickhere.
Senttime: 06/11/201612:55:16PM
FW:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSeaRussiandefence
Subject:
industryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria..[ANT/F]*****...
Subject:Fwd:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSea
RussiandefenceindustryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria..[ANT/F]
*****...
Subject:[NIGHTOWLEXPRESS][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBaltics
BlackSeaRussiandefenceindustryUSprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclear
Syria..[ANT/F]********[Putin&]Brexit/Russia'slinksto"farright"AfD.[AB]PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:No
Money,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesNATOEUBalticsBlackSeaRussiandefenceindustry
USprocurementRussianpolityEnergyCentralAsiaMH17CzechRepublicNuclearSyria
To:
TheSMMobservedfewerceasefireviolationsinDonetskregioncomparedwiththepreviousdayandsomeceasefireviolations
inLuhanskregioncomparedwithnonethepreviousday.WhilstatStanytsiaLuhanskabridge,incomingfireimpactedabout100
metresfromSMMsposition.TheSMMobservedcratersanddamagecausedbyshellinginDonetskcityandotherareas.The
Missioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofweapons,andnotedheavyweaponsinviolationofthewithdrawallinesitalso
notedarmouredcombatvehiclesandanti-aircraftweaponsinthesecurityzone.ArmedDPRmemberscontinuedtokeepthe
powersupplytoSMMsrepeaterinDonetskcitydisconnectedandtheSMMfacedfouradditionalrestrictionsofitsfreedomof
movement,mainlyinareasnotcontrolledbytheGovernment.

ICRCstatement:Ukrainecrisis:Intensifyinghostilitiesendangercivilianlivesandinfrastructure
http://www.icrc.org/en/document/ukraine-crisis-intensifying-hostilities-endanger-civilian-lives-and-infrastructure
RussianproxiesattackUkraine46timesinlastdayThecombinedRussian-separatistforcesattackedUkrainianarmypositionsin
easternUkraine46timesinthepast24hours,accordingtothepresscenteroftheAnti-TerroristOperation(ATO)Headquarters.
http://www.unian.info/war/1371386-russian-proxies-attack-ukraine-46-times-in-last-day.html
Russianforces
AdmiralGrigorovichfrigatearrivesinSevastopol
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2016/06/09/Admiral-Grigorovich-frigate-arrives-in-
Sevastopol/1481465476538/?spt=su&or=btn_tw
TheDoubleSting
ApowerstrugglebetweenRussiasrivalsecurityagencies.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/27/the-double-sting
Russialaunchesthefirstmilitaryicebreakerforoperationinthearcticregion
http://defence-blog.com/news/russia-launches-the-first-military-icebreaker-for-operation-in-the-arctic-region.html
NewRussianmilitarybasenearBelarusneededfor"protection"fromUkraineRussianAmbassador
http://www.unian.info/politics/1370721-new-russian-military-base-near-belarus-needed-for-protection-from-ukraine-russian-
ambassador.html
VideoofRussianarmour,troopsclosetoUkraineandBelarusbordersinKlintsy,Brianskoblast
http://youtu.be/qJfvDn5EsCE
NATOEU
BigBrusselsneighbors,oncewary,steppingupcooperation
TheybothhavetheirheadquartersinBelgiumscapitalandtheyprofessmanyofthesamevaluesandgoals,butuntilrecentlythe
NATOdefenseallianceandtheEuropeanUnioneconomicblochaveactedlikewaryneighborswithlittletosaytooneanother.
Thatsdespitethefactthat22prosperousWesterndemocracieswithmorethan450millioncitizensaremembersofboth
organizations,andbothhavebeenkeytobuildingandkeepingthepostwarorderinWesternEurope.
Thissummer,theoldstandoffishwaysaretochangedramaticallyandthekeywordwillbecooperation,primarilybecauseof
Russiasnewmilitarymightandassertiveness,thethreatofarmedIslamicextremismandEuropescontinuingmigrationcrisis.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/big-brussels-neighbors-once-wary-stepping-up-
cooperation/2016/06/08/c25acca4-2d61-11e6-b9d5-3c3063f8332c_story.html?tid=ss_tw
[SentbyStefanForss]
Baltics
Latviantroopscannowdowndronesspottedovermilitarybases
http://uatoday.tv/politics/latvian-troops-can-now-down-drones-over-military-bases-669807.html
BlackSea
Russia:WewillrespondtoentryofU.S.navalvesselintoBlackSea
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-ship-idUSKCN0YW0PP
Russiandefenceindustry
RussiaToResolveSupplyOfThreeFrigatesToIndiaByYearEnd
RussiahopestoresolvetheunfinishedsalethepatrolshipstoIndiabyyearend.Russiacouldnotbesupplyallthesixfrigatesto
IndiaasperthedealasUkrainestoppedsupplyofenginesforthefrigatesaftertieswithKievplummeted.
http://linkis.com/www.defenseworld.net/IwWUC
USprocurement

FromStrategyToExecution:AcceleratingTheThirdOffset
Theso-namedquestforconventionalmilitarydeterrenceagainstChinaandRussiathroughthePentagonsuseofgame-changing
technologynowhasabureaucraticbrandinsidetheBeltway.Thethirdoffsetalsohasabudget,some$18billion,tospendon
fulfillingavisionofafutureinwhichelectromagneticrailgunsshootdownhundredsofincomingcruisemissiles,lasersslicethrough
enemywarships,androboticwingmenflyinfirstonthedeadliestmissions.
DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorksaidduringarecentdiscussionattheAtlanticCouncil,Thethirdoffsetissimple.Atits
coreAIandautonomywillleadtoaneweraofhuman-machinecollaboration.
Thisbeguilinglysimplepremise,however,lacksabroadlyunderstoodplantoexecutethisvision.Absentcrystal-clearordersfrom
onhighandwithplentyoftheusualreasonsforinaction,over-cautiousnessislikelytoprevail.Yetfortheboldermembersof
Americasprivatesector,thisisamomentofgreatopportunitytoshapethenextgenerationofmilitaryinnovation.
[]
Onethingiscertain:thetraditional,grindinglyslowwayofdoingbusinesswillnotwork.Speedisessential,andthisrequires
breakingwithstatusquoindefenseprocurement.NeithercompanyexecutivesnorthePentagoncanaffordtowaitforarequest
forinformationtobereleasedandthengothroughmonths,ifnotyears,ofarms-lengthbackandforthbeforeacapabilityisever
fielded.Thethirdoffsetscoretechnologiesaredevelopingtooquicklyforthistobeaviablesolution.
[]
Ofalltheadvantagesthethirdoffsetstrategyismeanttoprovide,thepotentialtodisruptstatusquoprocessesandunproductive
cautionmaybethemostimportant.Butitfacestwomajorhurdles:anewpresidentialadministrationthatmaystartwithablank-
sheetapproachtothinkingaboutthefutureofwarandtheacquisitionsystemsValleyofDeathwheregoodideaswasteaway
intonothingness.
http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/from-strategy-to-execution-accelerating-the-third-offset/
Russianpolity
NationalistsversusPutin
ThenewsthattheinfamousIgorStrelkovhadsetupanAll-RussianNationalistMovement(OND)callingforthegatheringof
Russia,UkraineandBelarusandotherRussianlandsintoasinglestateandmakingtheformerSovietEurasiaanunquestioned
RussianzoneofinfluencepredictablycreatedfeverishspeculationaboutthenationalistbacklashagainstVladimirPutin.Isthisthe
startofaseriouschallenge,thebeginningoftheendforhisregime,theharbingerofabrowncoup?Thehonestansweristhatitis
noneofthesethings.However,itdoesillustratetheemergenceofanationalistcritiqueofPutinismthatmaywellprovesignificantin
thefuture.
[]
Nonetheless,eachtimePutinintrudesintoanewconflictandactivatessomeadventurersandideologues,thereisaprice.Strelkov
isjustthemostfamousoftheangryex-fighterscomingbackfromUkraine.TheKremlinmaybeabletocontrolhowtheseconflicts
arereportedonTV,butnoamountofspincanpreventtheslowgrowthofaconstituencyofformerbelieverswhonowsee
themselvesasbetrayed.
http://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-nationalists-versus-putin-99562/#.V1qCby5Bqc8.twitter
Putin'sCoreSupportBeginstoWaver
Working-classRussianshurtbyrecessionlookforsomeonetoblameinanelectionyear.
Thecurrentelectioncyclecomesamidaneconomiccrisiscausedinlargepartbyearlierdeclinesinoilprices,Russia'skeyexport.
Therecessionhasleftmanyemployerscash-strapped,sendingworkersintothestreetstoprotestunpaidwagesandreduced
workinghours.TheCenterforEconomic&PoliticalReforms,athink-tankclosetotheRussianCommunistParty,reportsan
almosttwofoldincreaseinprotestsinMarchcomparedwithpreviousmonths,asteeprisesincelastyear.
In2011,reform-mindedurbanelitesbridlingunderPutinwereinthevanguard.Thisyear,abroader,poorerdemographicis
expressingdissatisfaction,recentpollsshow.Althoughthosesurveyedsaidthey'relargelypredisposedagainstprotesting,
demonstrationsarebeginningtospreadbeyondthecities.CEPRheadNikolayMironovsaidthismayonlybethebeginning,and
thatthepossibilityexistsforproteststoreachamagnitudeofthosewesawinthelate1980s.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/putin-s-core-support-begins-to-waver
Energy
UkrainesaysRussiangastoopricey
UkrainesaidFridayitwouldnotpurchasenaturalgasfromRussiaatthepriceofferedbyMoscowandinsteadtapEuropean
marketsasitcontinuesitsshifttowardtheWest.
http://en.rfi.fr/wire/20160610-ukraine-says-russian-gas-too-pricey
CentralAsia
TurkmenistanSeeksMilitaryAssistancefromRussiatoPreserveBorderSecurity
http://www.economywatch.com/news/Turkmenistan-Seeks-Military-Assistance-from-Russia-to-Preserve-Border-
Security0610.html
KazakhstanEnlistingEuropeanTechToBuildCaspianNavy
MH17
LastyearshackontheDutchSafetyBoard(investigatingMH17)wasbytheFSB
CyberaanvalOVVwerkvanMoskou
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/25967968/__Moskou_achter_cyberaanval_OVV__.html
CzechRepublic
TheKremlinhasmanyfriendsinEurope-NigelFarageintheUK,FrancesMarineLePenandtheAfDpartyinGermanyto
namejustafew.
Hardlyanyofthemholdexecutivepositions,however.
ThisiswhatoneofRussiasbestfriends,CzechpresidentMilosZeman,bringstothetable.
Nuclear
Blurringthelinebetweennuclearandnonnuclearweapons:Increasingtheriskofaccidentalnuclearwar?
Inthepastfewmonths,therehavebeenanumberofprovocativeeventsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:RussianjetsbuzzUS
warshipsintheBlackSea.Turkey,aNATOmember,shootsdownaRussianwarplaneinvolvedintheSyriaconflict.Russian
governmentmediatalkpubliclyaboutturningtheUnitedStatestoashes.NATOandRussiabothrepositionmilitaryassetsand
conductexercisesreminiscentofthedarkestdaysoftheColdWar.Allthisraisesfearthatmisplacedbravadoandbrinksmanship
couldleadtotheuseofnuclearweapons.Butthereisasubtler,easilyoverlookedtrendaswell,whichcouldmakethesituation
evenworse:agradualblurringofthelineparticularlyinRussiathatseparatesconventionalweaponsandtheirdeliverysystems
fromtheirnuclearcounterparts.Uncertaintyabouttheactualcapabilityofaweaponsystemcanbeasignificantfactorinmanaging
aconflict,whetherpoliticalormilitary.ThisisprobablythecalculationbehindanumberofRussianprogramsthatareparticularly
vagueabouttheirnucleardimension.
http://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00963402.2016.1170363?platform=hootsuite&journalCode=rbul20
RussiaIsRecruitingTheU.S.sRebelAlliesInSyria
ItwasanopensecretthatthecommanderhadoncereceivedcashandweaponsfromtheCIA,partofacovertU.S.program
thatbacksrebelgroupsagainstbothISISandtheSyriangovernmentofBasharal-Assad.
WhenhisbattalionwaseventuallydrivenfromSyriabyitsjihadirivals,likeanumberofU.S.-backedgroups,hepleadedwithhis
U.S.handlersforbettersupport,butitwasntenough.Sohewas,hesaid,outofthegame.
Now,hesaid,sittingataquiettableatthehotel,hehadreceivedanofferthatcouldbringhimbackinandpotentiallymakehim
evenstrongerthanbefore.
Hewasbeingrecruited,hesaid,toworkfortheU.S.srivalinSyria:Russia.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/russia-is-recruiting-the-uss-rebel-allies-in-syria?utm_term=.asaXqRkkg#.qylWo0334
FightinginWesternSyria
U.S.-backedfighters,withairsupport,surroundkeySyriancity
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-backed-fighters-with-air-support-surround-key-syrian-
city/2016/06/10/13fd8a86-2f2b-11e6-9b37-42985f6a265c_story.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com"<anh@nyc.rr.com>,
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:****************[Putin&]Brexit/Russia'slinksto"farright"AfD
WhyPutinIsMeddlinginBritainsBrexitVote
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/08/why-putin-is-meddling-in-britain-s-brexit-vote.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
LONDONTheonlybig-namepolsonearthwhothinkBritainshouldleavetheEuropeanUnionareDonaldTrump,
MarineLePen,andVladimirPutin...
Beforeanewironcurtainfalls
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/before-a-new-iron-curtain-falls/2016/06/07/1ada7386-2847-11e6-b989-
4e5479715b54_story.html
INWINSTONChurchillsfamousSinewsofPeaceaddressatWestminsterCollegeinFulton,Mo.,onMarch5,
1946,hewarnedoftwogauntmaraudersstalkingtheworld,warandtyranny.Hedeclaredthatanironcurtain
haddescendeduponEuropeandinsistedthatwemustneverceasetoproclaiminfearlesstonesthegreatprinciples
offreedomandtherightsofman....Hedescribedfreespeech,democracyandruleoflawasthetitledeedsof
freedomandimplored,Letuspreachwhatwepracticeletuspracticewhatwepreach.
...
AnneApplebaum
OnRussia'slinkstoGermany's"farright"AfDparty.missedthisearlier
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-populists-forge-deeper-ties-with-russia-a-1089562.html
AnneApplebaumRetweeted
VladimirPutindestabilisingEUthroughsupportforright-wingpopulists,CzechForMin
warnshttp://app.ft.com/cms/s/3d6b68aa-2d57-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html?sectionid=world
RUversionofthe"Imagine"
maxseddon
HowRussiasavedCrimeafrombeingkilledbyKievNato-Nazis.
AparalleluniversewithinRT'sownparalleluniverse:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwEC1SuhpCo
,,,
2016-
09.06.2016
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/article/27788686.html
,,,
-.
.-
,:
...
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#867[PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:NoMoney,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability]
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com"<anh@nyc.rr.com>
PutinsKerchBridgetoCrimea:NoMoney,DodgyInsurance&NoAccountability
Russiasstate-controlledmediahasrespondedtoWednesdaysreportsofproblemswithfinancingthe
grandioseplansforabridgebetweenRussiaandCrimeawithaflurryofarticlesdenyinganyproblemsor
simplyactingasifitwasbusinessasusual.TheupbeatreportsareonasshakygroundastheKerchBridge
itselfsinceanewreportinformsthattheconstructionworkisinsuredbyanobscureCrimeancompanythat
nobodyhasheardof.
TheKerchStraitBridgehasbeendubbedPutinsBridge,afterRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Itwashe
whowasbehindRussiasinvasionandannexationofCrimea,andheisthereforepersonallyembarrassedby
theoverwhelmingevidencethatCrimeareallyisineverywaydependentonandorganicallylinkedwith
Ukraine.Whateverthedangersandthelikelydamagetotheenvironment,hewillnotabandonplansforthis
bridgeovertheKerchStraitfromRussiatoCrimea.AsCrimeanjournalist(inexile)PavelKazarinputit
afterearlierreportsofdelay,thisisbecauseitsnotonlyanimperialproject,butapersonalone
UkrainehasseveredanyagreementsmadebetweenMoscowandUkrainesdisgracedformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychoverconstructionofabridge.SinceRussiaisnowbuildingitwithoutUkrainianconsent,
itisinbreachofUkrainianandinternationallaw.Withsanctionsinplace,itwouldbeveryfoolishforany
foreigninvestorsorinsurerstohaveanyinvolvementatall.
Noenvironmentalaccountability
Asreportedearlier,theaccelerationofconstructionofthis19kilometrebridgewasorderedwithoutany
environmentalimpactanalysesorpublichearings.
TheKerchStraitisanareaofseismicactivity,withextremelydifficultweatherandgeophysicalconditions.
DaryaGorskova,writingforOpenRussia,reportedinJune2015thatthebillbeingpushedthrough
parliamentmadeitpossibleforthebridgetobedesignedandbuiltsimultaneously.
Permitswereeffectivelytobeissuedonthebasisofanunspecifiedamountofpreparatoryworkand
friendship.
Constructionhadeffectivelyalreadybegunwitheverybodygiventounderstandthattheycouldplungeahead
andworryaboutthepaperworklater.
Shevchenkowarnedthenofthedangersofdoingawaywithenvironmentalimpactanalysesforconstruction
ofahugeengineeringprojectwhichcouldcausemajordamagetotheenvironmentanddisruptthewater
flowoftheBlackSeaandAzovSea.Thosewarningsappeartohaveremainedunheededtothisday.
Senttime: 06/09/201609:29:00AM
FW:PIONTKOVSKIItweetonongoingcrackdownontheFSB[see@apiontkovsky]--PutinhasjustsackedYAKOVLEV,"amanfrom
Subject:
BORTNIKOV's[directorofFSB]closeentourage."
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,June09,20169:29AM
Subject:PIONTKOVSKIItweetonongoingcrackdownontheFSB[see@apiontkovsky]--PutinhasjustsackedYAKOVLEV,"amanfrom
And:AlegendaryformerFSBgeneral,VladimirPODOLSKII,isbeingchargedbytheInvestigations
CommitteewithFRAUD:Kommersantitemrepostedat:http://www.compromat.ru/page_36995.htm
PodolskiiwastheformerdeputycommanderoftheFSBsSpecialPurpose[spetsnaz]Centerandthe
headofthefamedVympelunit.
And:RussianSecurityServicetoexamineemployeeDEBT,foreignmarriages,themsocowtimes.com,
6/9
And:NAVALNYIhighlightstheCORRUPTIONoftwoofProcuratorGeneralCHAIKAssons:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/17809032echo/
HenotesthatinformationonthecorruptionofPutinssoninlawandDefenseMinisterShoigus
daughterhasbeenscrubbedfromRosreestr.
And:NancyA.Youseff,CIAandPentagonbickerwhileRussiaWIPESOUTU.S.backedrebels[in
ALEPPO,Syria],thedailybeast.com.6/8
And:[USambassadortoUkraineGeoffrey]PYATT:WorldcommunityhasnotenoughinfoonRussias
roleinDonbaswar,unian.info,6/9
And:NewRussianmilitarybasenearBELARUSneededforPROTECTIONfromUkraineRussian
ambassador[toBelarus],unian.info,6/9
And:StopVladimirPutinNOWorRussiawilladvancetoborderwithPolandorGermanysaysNadia
SAVCHENKO,telegraph.co.uk,6/9RepostedbyKyivpost.com
And:LincolnMitchell,TRUMPsantiNATOstanceandpraiseforPutinmayhaunthim,
observer.com,6/7
And:Putinhasorderedthatahaltbeputtothecreationofspecialeconomiczones[inRussia],
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1704141.html?print=1
Senttime: 06/09/201609:29:00AM
FW:PIONTKOVSKIItweetonongoingcrackdownontheFSB[see@apiontkovsky]--PutinhasjustsackedYAKOVLEV,"amanfrom
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:PIONTKOVSKIItweetonongoingcrackdownontheFSB[see@apiontkovsky]--PutinhasjustsackedYAKOVLEV,"amanfrom
And:AlegendaryformerFSBgeneral,VladimirPODOLSKII,isbeingchargedbytheInvestigations
CommitteewithFRAUD:Kommersantitemrepostedat:http://www.compromat.ru/page_36995.htm
PodolskiiwastheformerdeputycommanderoftheFSBsSpecialPurpose[spetsnaz]Centerandthe
headofthefamedVympelunit.
And:RussianSecurityServicetoexamineemployeeDEBT,foreignmarriages,themsocowtimes.com,
6/9
And:NAVALNYIhighlightstheCORRUPTIONoftwoofProcuratorGeneralCHAIKAssons:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/17809032echo/
HenotesthatinformationonthecorruptionofPutinssoninlawandDefenseMinisterShoigus
daughterhasbeenscrubbedfromRosreestr.
And:NancyA.Youseff,CIAandPentagonbickerwhileRussiaWIPESOUTU.S.backedrebels[in
ALEPPO,Syria],thedailybeast.com.6/8
And:[USambassadortoUkraineGeoffrey]PYATT:WorldcommunityhasnotenoughinfoonRussias
roleinDonbaswar,unian.info,6/9
And:NewRussianmilitarybasenearBELARUSneededforPROTECTIONfromUkraineRussian
ambassador[toBelarus],unian.info,6/9
And:StopVladimirPutinNOWorRussiawilladvancetoborderwithPolandorGermanysaysNadia
SAVCHENKO,telegraph.co.uk,6/9RepostedbyKyivpost.com
And:LincolnMitchell,TRUMPsantiNATOstanceandpraiseforPutinmayhaunthim,
observer.com,6/7
And:Putinhasorderedthatahaltbeputtothecreationofspecialeconomiczones[inRussia],
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1704141.html?print=1
From: PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/08/201607:10:46AM
To: PaulGoble<Paul.Goble@gmail.com>
BCc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FourWindowsonEurasiaforJune8,2016
1.MoscowsFiveFearsaboutKazakhstanwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/moscows-five-fears-about-kazakhstan.html
2.FewerthanHalfofUkrainiansBlameMoscowAloneforWarintheDonbass,NewSurveyFinds
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/fewer-than-half-of-ukrainians-blame.html
3.OrdinaryRussiansMistakenlyPlacingTheirHopesinDonaldTrump,BykovSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/ordinary-russians-mistakenly-placing.html
4.RussiansareDrinkingEverMoreMoonshineatGreatRisktoTheirHealth,ExpertsSay
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russians-are-drinking-ever-more.html
Senttime: 06/03/201602:51:02PM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re:SheAlwaysWasaJerk...........
IwillneverforgethertestifyingbeforeCongressonNATOexpansion,arguingitwasOKbecausepollsshowedtheRussian
populationwasn'topposed.Somecriterion.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun3,2016,at4:22PM,JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>wrote:
wasinwayoverherhead,butdidn't(doesn't)realizeit.
OnFriday,June3,20163:20PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'from
Clintonemails
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'from
Clintonemails
HillaryClinton'suseofaprivateemailserverwhileattheStateDepartmentwillnotkill
anyone,formerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightsaidFriday.ButDonaldTrump's
rhetoricmight,theClintonallysuggested.
"Shehassaidshemadeamistake,andnobodyisgoingtodieasaresultofanythingthat
happenedonemails,"AlbrighttoldCNN'sChrisCuomoon"NewDay,"afterthehost
broachedthemultifacetedcriticismandconcernsaboutClinton'sforeignpolicyfrom
opponentsandsupportersalike.
CuomoreferencedClinton'suseofprivateemails,alongwiththeinfamousfailedresetwith
RussiaandherroleinorchestratingthenucleardealwithahostileIranianregime,aday
afterAlbright'sDemocraticsuccessoratFoggyBottomdeliveredablisteringspeech
rippingTrump'sforeignpolicycredentials.
"IamconcernedaboutsomeofthestatementsthatDonaldTrumphasmadethatare
dangerous,"Albrightsaid."OntheissueofRussia,thefactthatDonaldTrumpadmires
PutinisoneofthereasonsthatIcan'tagreewithawordhesaysbecausetheresettakes
twotoreset."
AlbrightblamedMoscowforthereset'sfailure,remarkingthatVladimirPutin"istheone
thathasmadeveryaggressivemovesagainstUkraineandpushedEuropearound,which
iswhyweneedastrongNATO."
"AndtheIrannucleardealhasmadeitclearthatIranwillnothaveanuclearweapon.Thatis
positive.SoIthinkpeoplethesearevery,verydifficultandcomplicatedissuesthatneed
tobeexplained.AndIthoughtSecretaryClinton'sspeechwentalongwaytolayingout
whatwasarationalnationalsecuritypolicy,"shesaid."AndIwouldhopeandIwouldbeso
happytoparticipateinthis,ishavingreallyanin-depthdiscussionoftheissuesthatareout
theresothatAmericawillbesafe.Andthat'swhatweneedtotalkaboutinsteadofname-
calling,frankly."
Authors:
ShowComments
Senttime: 06/06/201610:33:32AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSweden
Subject:
RussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17RussianpolityB
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinland
SwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
Bu...
From:VolodymyrZarycky<cusurwaz@gmail.com>
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPoland
FinlandSwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17
RussianpolityBulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore[PB]JeffreySachisGivingOutAdviceAgain..Hide
theValuables!!
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSwedenRussianforces
NovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
BulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore
To:
TheSMMobservedalowerlevelofviolenceinDonetskregionandmoreceasefireviolationsinLuhanskregioncomparedwith
thepreviousday.TheMissioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofheavyweaponsitnotedalsoarmouredcombatvehiclesand
otherhardwareinthesecurityzone.
SpotReportbyOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine(SMM):SMMlosesunmannedaerialvehicleoverKorsun
AT18:16(EET)on2JunetheSMMlostallcommunicationwithanSMMlong-rangeunmannedaerialvehicle(UAV)whileit
wasflyingatanaltitudeof9,000ftintheareabetweenDPR-controlledKorsun(31kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)andDPR-
controlledShevchenko(28kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)
UkrainianPresident:NewRussianspecialforcesunitsarrivedintheDonbas
http://uawire.org/news/ukrainian-president-new-units-of-russian-special-forces-arrived-in-the-donbass
OSCEconsidersarmedpolicemissiontoDonbasamidviolenceescalation
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/osce-considers-armed-police-mission-to-donbas-amid-violence-escalation-666357.html
UNSeesThreatofProtractedWarinEastUkraineConflict
ThelatestU.N.figuresshownearly9,400peoplehavebeenkilledandmorethan21,500otherswoundedsincetheconflict
beganinmid-April2014.
U.N.monitorssaidactivefightinghasdecreasedbut,theywarn,theMinskpeaceagreementisfragileandthesituationcould
developintoaprotractedconflictorescalateagain.
Theysaidbothscenarioswouldhavedireconsequencesforthecivilianpopulationandbeharmfultohumanrightsformanyyears.
U.N.HumanRightsspokeswomanRavinaShamdasanitoldVOAthereisaworryingincreaseinheavyweaponrynearthecontact
line,whichborderstheDonetskregionineasternUkraineandthegovernment-controlledarea.
TherehavebeenstronglycrediblereportsofservicemenfromacrosstheborderfromRussiacomingintoandoutofUkrainian
territory,"shesaid."And,thesamegoesforheavyweaponryaswell.Therehavebeenverycrediblereports.
ThereportaccusesthearmedrulersofeasternUkraineofwidespreadhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Itsays2.7million
civilianslivingundertheircontrolhavenofreedomofexpression,assemblyandassociation.
http://www.voanews.com/content/un-sees-threat-protracted-war-east-ukraine-conflict/3360739.html
Historyoftheconflict
RussianunitsspottedinEasternUkraine
200-.2/1
http://sled-vzayt.livejournal.com/4624.html
Baltics
MerkelannouncesGermanbattaliongroupforBaltics
GermanywillcommitabattalionsworthoftroopstoNATOsmissionintheBalticsaspartofaplantobeefuptheallied
presenceintheregionwhilemaintainingapost-ColdWarpledgenottopositionpermanentforcesalongRussiasborder,German
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsaidThursday.
Wewillcontributealsototherotatingpresencethere,andwewanttodosoparticularlyinregardtoLithuania,Merkelsaid
duringanewsconferenceinBerlin.
http://www.stripes.com/news/merkel-announces-german-battalion-group-for-baltics-1.412730
Balticarmsbuildupwill'preventconflict,'saysNATOchiefStoltenberg
SpeakingwithGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,NATOchiefStoltenberghassaidtheblocisreinforcingitsBalticbattalionsto
preventaconflictwithRussia.Hedeniedbeingina"newColdWar"withMoscow.
http://www.dw.com/en/baltic-arms-buildup-will-prevent-conflict-says-nato-chief-stoltenberg/a-19300734
'Russiaisbackwith19th-centurygoalsand21st-centurymeans'-Estoniapresident
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ra-russia-is-back-with-19th-century-goals-and-21st-century-means-665197.html
TheFinnishNavytotakepartinBALTOPS16
http://merivoimat.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/merivoimat-mukana-baltops16-harjoituksessa
Poland
PolandToRecruit35,000ForParamilitaryForceToCounterRussia
PolandsaysitwillstartrecruitinginSeptemberforanew35,000-strongparamilitaryforceamidtensionswithRussia.
DefenseMinisterAntoniMacierewiczsaidonJune2thattheforce'scommandstructureandseniorappointmentshadalready
beendecided.
PriorityindeploymentwillbegiventoeasternprovincesdeemedtobethemostexposedtoRussianpressure.
Comprisingcivilianvolunteerstrainedinmilitaryskills,officialssaidtheforceisaimedatcountering"hybridwarfareofthekind
thatWesternofficialssayRussiausedtoseizeUkraine'sCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportseparatistsinthecountry'seast.
InApril,MacierewiczsaidthenewparamilitaryforcewasneededbecausePoland"isthreatenedbytheactionsofourneighbor
Russia,whichmakesnosecretofitsaggressiveintentions.
http://www.rferl.org/content/poland-paramilitary-force-countering--russia/27777031.html
Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia
Volunteerswillundergoabout30days'militarytrainingayearandthefirstthreebrigadesarescheduledtobeoperationalin
easternPolandbythestartofnextyear,withtheremaining14intherestofthecountryexpectedtobereadyin2019.
OneofthefirstthreebrigadeswilldefendPoland'sborderwithKaliningrad.ThewarinUkrainetriggereddiscussionaboutthe
territorialunitsinbothPolandandtheBalticstates,whichalreadyhavethem.
Finland
PutintovisitFinlandinthesummer
PutintillFinlandisommar
http://svenska.yle.fi/artikel/2016/06/03/putin-till-finland-i-sommar
Sweden
Swedishdefenceministerstatesthatcollaborationistopreventcrisesandwars.
Hultqvist:Samverkanskerfrattundvikakriserochkrig
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/hultqvist-samverkan-sker-for-att-undvika-kriser-och-krig/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Russianforces
TheFourthBattleoftheAtlantic
WithmoreactivityfromRussiansubmarinesthanweveseensincethedaysoftheColdWar,animprovedEuropeanforce
posturebecomesvitalfortheU.S.NavyandNATO.
http://www.usni.org/node/87164
Russiatodeploytwobrigadestoitswesternborder
http://uawire.org/news/russia-to-deploy-two-brigades-to-its-western-border
RussiantoDeployMoreForceAtWesternBordertoCounterNATO
[SendbyStefanForss]
IntelligenceBriefing:LatestDevelopmentsinRussianArmouredFightingVehicles
http://www.janes.com/article/60778/extract-intelligence-briefing-latest-developments-in-russian-armoured-fighting-vehicles
Borei-ClassSSBNJoinsRussianNavysPermanentReadinessForce
http://www.conflict-news.com/articles/borei-class-ssbn-joins-russian-navys-permanent-readiness-force
[StefanForss]
Novorossiya
Russia's'valianthero'inUkraineturnshisfireonVladimirPutin
IgorStrelkov,RussianmilitaryheroofthewarinUkraine,stepsoutoftheshadowstofiresalvoatPresidentPutinandpredict
upheavalinRussia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/05/russias-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin
DonetskfacesacreepingRussification
ManyfearcityswideningsplitfromrestofUkrainecouldcomplicatereintegration
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1425647c-297f-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4AjR9g2KN
[SentbyStefanForss]

NATO
NATOMovingtoCreateNewIntelligenceChiefPost
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-considers-new-intelligence-chief-post-1464968453
EstonianPM:WeexpectNATOtoestablishafirmpositioninrelationtoRussia'sactions
http://uawire.org/news/estonian-pm-we-expect-nato-to-establish-a-firm-position-in-relation-to-russia-s-actions
PISMReport:NATOandtheFutureofPeaceinEurope:TowardsaTailoredApproach
http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM_Report/NATO-and-the-Future-of-Peace-in-Europe
MissileDefence
MissiledefenseWouldtheKremlinpitchadeal?
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/02-missile-defense-russia-pifer
[SentbyStefanForss,whowrites:
TheRS-26Rubezh,formallyanICBMbecauseitonceflew5800kmwithaverylightoremptypayload-butinrealitythenew
Russianflagshipamongthenew"eurostrategic"missilesisbetterthantheSS-20eliminatedinINF.RubezhisessentiallyanRS-24
Yarswithonestagestrippedoff.
MyassessmentisthattherangeoftheIskander-Mis700+km,somethingconfirmedbyotherexperts.Admittedly,wedon'thave
officialproofthatIskanderhasbeentestedtosuchranges.Ontheotherhandweknow,thattheRussianshavebeenverycareful
preparingtheirflighttests.Theydoitindarknesstocomplicatemonitoringbyopticalimagingsatellites,theychoosetimeslots
carefullytoavoidhavingothertypesofsatellites,suchassyntheticapertureradar(SAR)imagingsatellitesoverhead.Afairguessis
thattheRussiansknowfullywhichthecapabilitiesoftheirmissilesare.AnotherfactortokeepinmindisthefactthattheRussian
militarywouldbereluctanttoacceptonlypartiallytestedweaponsystemsinfullspectrumoperationaluse.
Given,thatanimprovedversionofIskander-Mhaspotentialtofly1000km,Russiawouldindeedhavereplacedallweapons
systemslostinINF:SS-20Saber,SS-12Scaleboard,SS-23Spiderandtheground-launchedcruisemissileSSC-X-4.
TheseRussiandevelopmentswon'tgoawayjustbyturningablindeye.Theyneedtoberecognizedandpoliticaldecisionsneedto
betakenaccordingly.
Thesituationisrathersimilartotheonethatbeganinthesecondhalfofthe1970s.Aseconddual-trackdecisionastheone
adoptedin1979isanon-starter.Sub-strategicnucleardeterrencewillhavetobeupheldwithmoresubtlemeans.B61-12isakey
projectinthisregard.Thatis,however,farfromenough.Thereforesub-strategicmissiledefenseissorelyneeded.It'stechnical
prospectsarenotbad,justlookatwhatIsraelhasachieved.Unfortunatelythegeneraldebatehasbecomeutterlybiased.Strong
voicessayNATOshouldrefrainfrommissiledefense,forthesimplereasonthatRussiadoesn'tlikeit.Hasanybodyheard
objectionsagainstIskander,Kalibrandotherdual-useweaponsthreateningus?Ok,someRussianambassadorshaveoccasionally
beensummonedtohearformalcomplaintsafterincidentsordeplorableofficialstatements,butthat'saboutit.]
GermanyFrance
GermanyandFrancearerevivingmilitarycooperationbuttherearestillnoplansforanEUarmy
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-germany-france-to-revive-eu-defense-but-no-plans-for-eu-army-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Brexit
Militarythink-tanksaysBrexitwillcausedefenceshock
http://next.ft.com/content/149dfe72-28d1-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89

WouldaNewSDSRBeNeededAfteraBrexitVote?
http://rusi.org/publication/briefing-papers/SDSR-Brexit
Sanctions
U.S.SendsEnvoyToUrgeEuropeToMaintainRussianSanctions
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/us-treasury-sends-szubin-europe-urge-maintain-russian-sanctions-iran-nuclear-deal-
implementation/27778918.html
USPolicy
Americaistiredofbeingtheworldsprotector.Wehavebeenwarned
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/02/america-is-tired-of-being-the-worlds-protector-we-have-been-warn/
NATO'stopsoldiersaysTrumpcommentsplayintohandsofPutin
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-security-nato-idUKKCN0YP1SC
MH17
MH17crash:ProsecutorsincreasepressureonRussia
MH17investigationat'advancedstage'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-mh-idUSKCN0YP1YQ
Russianpolity
UnitedRussia,dividedPutin
Thepresidenthascrushedtheopposition,buttechnocratsandsecurityhawksarefightingforhisfavour
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699944-president-has-crushed-opposition-technocrats-and-security-hawks-are-
fighting-his
Bulgaria
BulgariarequestssurplusF-16sfromPortugal
http://www.janes.com/article/60955/bulgaria-requests-surplus-f-16s-from-portugal
Media
Ukrainianpresidentcondemnsleakofjournalistdata
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukrainian-president-condemns-leak-of-journalist-data-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Humanrights
TheUnitedNationsonFridayaccusedboththeUkrainianauthoritiesandpro-Russianrebelsoftorturingfightersandtheir
sympathiserscapturedintheseparatisteast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31761835/un-accuses-ukrainian-authorities-and-rebels-of-torture/
SBUrefutesUNallegationsoftortureofdetaineesfrom"LPR-DPR"
http://www.unian.info/politics/1365472-sbu-refutes-un-allegations-of-torture-of-detainees-from-lpr-dpr.html
Hybridwar
EuropeStillinDenialasRussiaUshersintheAgeofHybridHostilities
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-still-in-denial-as-russia-ushers-in-the-age-of-hybrid-hostilities
PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/joe-dougherty-putin-using-hybrid-warfare-to-challenge-united-states-and-allies-fdd-
study/#sthash.NSJyXKXn.dpuf
[SentbyStefanForss]
Caucuses
AngeredAtArmsSalesToAzerbaijan,ArmeniansPushAwayFromRussiasEmbrace
RussianTu-142appearsoverSyriaforthefirsttime(thedayaftertheUSNlaunchedfirststrikesfromtheMedSea)
http://theaviationist.com/2016/06/05/russian-tu-142-appears-over-syria-for-the-first-time-the-day-after-the-usn-launched-first-
strikes-from-the-med-sea/
Syriacivilwar:ThemessagefromMoscow
FactsonthegroundshowMoscowmaybejustifyingandpavingthewayforalarge-scaleoffensiveagainstal-Nusra.
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2016/06/syria-civil-war-message-moscow-nusra-160604163154005.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
Subject:Clinton'sSpeechShowsThatOnlySandersIsFitforthePresidency[ED:AgreewithPeter..Checkthisout
ol'JeffreySachs,thearchitectof'oligarchic'Russia,isgivingadviceagain..OHBOY!!!]
Thisfromthe"genius"whogavebirthtoRussia'sOligarchs.LookslikethelatterdayDr.Frankensteincontinuestoworkforthe
monstershecreated.Well,nodoubt,thepayisbetternow.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/-clintons-speech-shows-th_b_10306592.html
Senttime: 06/06/201610:33:32AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSweden
Subject:
RussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17RussianpolityB
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinland
SwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
Bu...
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPoland
FinlandSwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17
RussianpolityBulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore[PB]JeffreySachisGivingOutAdviceAgain..Hide
theValuables!!
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSwedenRussianforces
NovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
BulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore
To:
TheSMMobservedalowerlevelofviolenceinDonetskregionandmoreceasefireviolationsinLuhanskregioncomparedwith
thepreviousday.TheMissioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofheavyweaponsitnotedalsoarmouredcombatvehiclesand
otherhardwareinthesecurityzone.
SpotReportbyOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine(SMM):SMMlosesunmannedaerialvehicleoverKorsun
AT18:16(EET)on2JunetheSMMlostallcommunicationwithanSMMlong-rangeunmannedaerialvehicle(UAV)whileit
wasflyingatanaltitudeof9,000ftintheareabetweenDPR-controlledKorsun(31kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)andDPR-
controlledShevchenko(28kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)
UkrainianPresident:NewRussianspecialforcesunitsarrivedintheDonbas
http://uawire.org/news/ukrainian-president-new-units-of-russian-special-forces-arrived-in-the-donbass
OSCEconsidersarmedpolicemissiontoDonbasamidviolenceescalation
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/osce-considers-armed-police-mission-to-donbas-amid-violence-escalation-666357.html
UNSeesThreatofProtractedWarinEastUkraineConflict
ThelatestU.N.figuresshownearly9,400peoplehavebeenkilledandmorethan21,500otherswoundedsincetheconflict
beganinmid-April2014.
U.N.monitorssaidactivefightinghasdecreasedbut,theywarn,theMinskpeaceagreementisfragileandthesituationcould
developintoaprotractedconflictorescalateagain.
Theysaidbothscenarioswouldhavedireconsequencesforthecivilianpopulationandbeharmfultohumanrightsformanyyears.
U.N.HumanRightsspokeswomanRavinaShamdasanitoldVOAthereisaworryingincreaseinheavyweaponrynearthecontact
line,whichborderstheDonetskregionineasternUkraineandthegovernment-controlledarea.
TherehavebeenstronglycrediblereportsofservicemenfromacrosstheborderfromRussiacomingintoandoutofUkrainian
territory,"shesaid."And,thesamegoesforheavyweaponryaswell.Therehavebeenverycrediblereports.
ThereportaccusesthearmedrulersofeasternUkraineofwidespreadhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Itsays2.7million
civilianslivingundertheircontrolhavenofreedomofexpression,assemblyandassociation.
http://www.voanews.com/content/un-sees-threat-protracted-war-east-ukraine-conflict/3360739.html
Historyoftheconflict
RussianunitsspottedinEasternUkraine
200-.2/1
http://sled-vzayt.livejournal.com/4624.html
Baltics
MerkelannouncesGermanbattaliongroupforBaltics
GermanywillcommitabattalionsworthoftroopstoNATOsmissionintheBalticsaspartofaplantobeefuptheallied
presenceintheregionwhilemaintainingapost-ColdWarpledgenottopositionpermanentforcesalongRussiasborder,German
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsaidThursday.
Wewillcontributealsototherotatingpresencethere,andwewanttodosoparticularlyinregardtoLithuania,Merkelsaid
duringanewsconferenceinBerlin.
http://www.stripes.com/news/merkel-announces-german-battalion-group-for-baltics-1.412730
Balticarmsbuildupwill'preventconflict,'saysNATOchiefStoltenberg
SpeakingwithGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,NATOchiefStoltenberghassaidtheblocisreinforcingitsBalticbattalionsto
preventaconflictwithRussia.Hedeniedbeingina"newColdWar"withMoscow.
http://www.dw.com/en/baltic-arms-buildup-will-prevent-conflict-says-nato-chief-stoltenberg/a-19300734
'Russiaisbackwith19th-centurygoalsand21st-centurymeans'-Estoniapresident
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ra-russia-is-back-with-19th-century-goals-and-21st-century-means-665197.html
TheFinnishNavytotakepartinBALTOPS16
http://merivoimat.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/merivoimat-mukana-baltops16-harjoituksessa
Poland
PolandToRecruit35,000ForParamilitaryForceToCounterRussia
PolandsaysitwillstartrecruitinginSeptemberforanew35,000-strongparamilitaryforceamidtensionswithRussia.
DefenseMinisterAntoniMacierewiczsaidonJune2thattheforce'scommandstructureandseniorappointmentshadalready
beendecided.
PriorityindeploymentwillbegiventoeasternprovincesdeemedtobethemostexposedtoRussianpressure.
Comprisingcivilianvolunteerstrainedinmilitaryskills,officialssaidtheforceisaimedatcountering"hybridwarfareofthekind
thatWesternofficialssayRussiausedtoseizeUkraine'sCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportseparatistsinthecountry'seast.
InApril,MacierewiczsaidthenewparamilitaryforcewasneededbecausePoland"isthreatenedbytheactionsofourneighbor
Russia,whichmakesnosecretofitsaggressiveintentions.
http://www.rferl.org/content/poland-paramilitary-force-countering--russia/27777031.html
Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia
Volunteerswillundergoabout30days'militarytrainingayearandthefirstthreebrigadesarescheduledtobeoperationalin
easternPolandbythestartofnextyear,withtheremaining14intherestofthecountryexpectedtobereadyin2019.
OneofthefirstthreebrigadeswilldefendPoland'sborderwithKaliningrad.ThewarinUkrainetriggereddiscussionaboutthe
territorialunitsinbothPolandandtheBalticstates,whichalreadyhavethem.
Finland
PutintovisitFinlandinthesummer
PutintillFinlandisommar
http://svenska.yle.fi/artikel/2016/06/03/putin-till-finland-i-sommar
Sweden
Swedishdefenceministerstatesthatcollaborationistopreventcrisesandwars.
Hultqvist:Samverkanskerfrattundvikakriserochkrig
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/hultqvist-samverkan-sker-for-att-undvika-kriser-och-krig/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Russianforces
TheFourthBattleoftheAtlantic
WithmoreactivityfromRussiansubmarinesthanweveseensincethedaysoftheColdWar,animprovedEuropeanforce
posturebecomesvitalfortheU.S.NavyandNATO.
http://www.usni.org/node/87164
Russiatodeploytwobrigadestoitswesternborder
http://uawire.org/news/russia-to-deploy-two-brigades-to-its-western-border
RussiantoDeployMoreForceAtWesternBordertoCounterNATO
[SendbyStefanForss]
IntelligenceBriefing:LatestDevelopmentsinRussianArmouredFightingVehicles
http://www.janes.com/article/60778/extract-intelligence-briefing-latest-developments-in-russian-armoured-fighting-vehicles
Borei-ClassSSBNJoinsRussianNavysPermanentReadinessForce
http://www.conflict-news.com/articles/borei-class-ssbn-joins-russian-navys-permanent-readiness-force
[StefanForss]
Novorossiya
Russia's'valianthero'inUkraineturnshisfireonVladimirPutin
IgorStrelkov,RussianmilitaryheroofthewarinUkraine,stepsoutoftheshadowstofiresalvoatPresidentPutinandpredict
upheavalinRussia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/05/russias-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin
DonetskfacesacreepingRussification
ManyfearcityswideningsplitfromrestofUkrainecouldcomplicatereintegration
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1425647c-297f-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4AjR9g2KN
[SentbyStefanForss]

NATO
NATOMovingtoCreateNewIntelligenceChiefPost
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-considers-new-intelligence-chief-post-1464968453
EstonianPM:WeexpectNATOtoestablishafirmpositioninrelationtoRussia'sactions
http://uawire.org/news/estonian-pm-we-expect-nato-to-establish-a-firm-position-in-relation-to-russia-s-actions
PISMReport:NATOandtheFutureofPeaceinEurope:TowardsaTailoredApproach
http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM_Report/NATO-and-the-Future-of-Peace-in-Europe
MissileDefence
MissiledefenseWouldtheKremlinpitchadeal?
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/02-missile-defense-russia-pifer
[SentbyStefanForss,whowrites:
TheRS-26Rubezh,formallyanICBMbecauseitonceflew5800kmwithaverylightoremptypayload-butinrealitythenew
Russianflagshipamongthenew"eurostrategic"missilesisbetterthantheSS-20eliminatedinINF.RubezhisessentiallyanRS-24
Yarswithonestagestrippedoff.
MyassessmentisthattherangeoftheIskander-Mis700+km,somethingconfirmedbyotherexperts.Admittedly,wedon'thave
officialproofthatIskanderhasbeentestedtosuchranges.Ontheotherhandweknow,thattheRussianshavebeenverycareful
preparingtheirflighttests.Theydoitindarknesstocomplicatemonitoringbyopticalimagingsatellites,theychoosetimeslots
carefullytoavoidhavingothertypesofsatellites,suchassyntheticapertureradar(SAR)imagingsatellitesoverhead.Afairguessis
thattheRussiansknowfullywhichthecapabilitiesoftheirmissilesare.AnotherfactortokeepinmindisthefactthattheRussian
militarywouldbereluctanttoacceptonlypartiallytestedweaponsystemsinfullspectrumoperationaluse.
Given,thatanimprovedversionofIskander-Mhaspotentialtofly1000km,Russiawouldindeedhavereplacedallweapons
systemslostinINF:SS-20Saber,SS-12Scaleboard,SS-23Spiderandtheground-launchedcruisemissileSSC-X-4.
TheseRussiandevelopmentswon'tgoawayjustbyturningablindeye.Theyneedtoberecognizedandpoliticaldecisionsneedto
betakenaccordingly.
Thesituationisrathersimilartotheonethatbeganinthesecondhalfofthe1970s.Aseconddual-trackdecisionastheone
adoptedin1979isanon-starter.Sub-strategicnucleardeterrencewillhavetobeupheldwithmoresubtlemeans.B61-12isakey
projectinthisregard.Thatis,however,farfromenough.Thereforesub-strategicmissiledefenseissorelyneeded.It'stechnical
prospectsarenotbad,justlookatwhatIsraelhasachieved.Unfortunatelythegeneraldebatehasbecomeutterlybiased.Strong
voicessayNATOshouldrefrainfrommissiledefense,forthesimplereasonthatRussiadoesn'tlikeit.Hasanybodyheard
objectionsagainstIskander,Kalibrandotherdual-useweaponsthreateningus?Ok,someRussianambassadorshaveoccasionally
beensummonedtohearformalcomplaintsafterincidentsordeplorableofficialstatements,butthat'saboutit.]
GermanyFrance
GermanyandFrancearerevivingmilitarycooperationbuttherearestillnoplansforanEUarmy
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-germany-france-to-revive-eu-defense-but-no-plans-for-eu-army-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Brexit
Militarythink-tanksaysBrexitwillcausedefenceshock
http://next.ft.com/content/149dfe72-28d1-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89

WouldaNewSDSRBeNeededAfteraBrexitVote?
http://rusi.org/publication/briefing-papers/SDSR-Brexit
Sanctions
U.S.SendsEnvoyToUrgeEuropeToMaintainRussianSanctions
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/us-treasury-sends-szubin-europe-urge-maintain-russian-sanctions-iran-nuclear-deal-
implementation/27778918.html
USPolicy
NATO'stopsoldiersaysTrumpcommentsplayintohandsofPutin
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-security-nato-idUKKCN0YP1SC
MH17
MH17crash:ProsecutorsincreasepressureonRussia
MH17investigationat'advancedstage'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-mh-idUSKCN0YP1YQ
Russianpolity
UnitedRussia,dividedPutin
Thepresidenthascrushedtheopposition,buttechnocratsandsecurityhawksarefightingforhisfavour
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699944-president-has-crushed-opposition-technocrats-and-security-hawks-are-
fighting-his
Bulgaria
BulgariarequestssurplusF-16sfromPortugal
http://www.janes.com/article/60955/bulgaria-requests-surplus-f-16s-from-portugal
Media
Ukrainianpresidentcondemnsleakofjournalistdata
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukrainian-president-condemns-leak-of-journalist-data-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Humanrights
TheUnitedNationsonFridayaccusedboththeUkrainianauthoritiesandpro-Russianrebelsoftorturingfightersandtheir
sympathiserscapturedintheseparatisteast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31761835/un-accuses-ukrainian-authorities-and-rebels-of-torture/
SBUrefutesUNallegationsoftortureofdetaineesfrom"LPR-DPR"
http://www.unian.info/politics/1365472-sbu-refutes-un-allegations-of-torture-of-detainees-from-lpr-dpr.html
Hybridwar
EuropeStillinDenialasRussiaUshersintheAgeofHybridHostilities
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-still-in-denial-as-russia-ushers-in-the-age-of-hybrid-hostilities
PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds
study/#sthash.NSJyXKXn.dpuf
[SentbyStefanForss]
Caucuses
AngeredAtArmsSalesToAzerbaijan,ArmeniansPushAwayFromRussiasEmbrace
RussianTu-142appearsoverSyriaforthefirsttime(thedayaftertheUSNlaunchedfirststrikesfromtheMedSea)
http://theaviationist.com/2016/06/05/russian-tu-142-appears-over-syria-for-the-first-time-the-day-after-the-usn-launched-first-
strikes-from-the-med-sea/
Syriacivilwar:ThemessagefromMoscow
FactsonthegroundshowMoscowmaybejustifyingandpavingthewayforalarge-scaleoffensiveagainstal-Nusra.
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2016/06/syria-civil-war-message-moscow-nusra-160604163154005.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
Subject:Clinton'sSpeechShowsThatOnlySandersIsFitforthePresidency[ED:AgreewithPeter..Checkthisout
ol'JeffreySachs,thearchitectof'oligarchic'Russia,isgivingadviceagain..OHBOY!!!]
Thisfromthe"genius"whogavebirthtoRussia'sOligarchs.LookslikethelatterdayDr.Frankensteincontinuestoworkforthe
monstershecreated.Well,nodoubt,thepayisbetternow.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/-clintons-speech-shows-th_b_10306592.html
From: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 06/03/201601:22:13PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:SheAlwaysWasaJerk...........
wasinwayoverherhead,butdidn't(doesn't)realizeit.
OnFriday,June3,20163:20PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'fromClinton
emails
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'fromClinton
emails
HillaryClinton'suseofaprivateemailserverwhileattheStateDepartmentwillnotkillanyone,former
SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightsaidFriday.ButDonaldTrump'srhetoricmight,theClintonally
suggested.
"Shehassaidshemadeamistake,andnobodyisgoingtodieasaresultofanythingthathappened
onemails,"AlbrighttoldCNN'sChrisCuomoon"NewDay,"afterthehostbroachedthemultifaceted
criticismandconcernsaboutClinton'sforeignpolicyfromopponentsandsupportersalike.
CuomoreferencedClinton'suseofprivateemails,alongwiththeinfamousfailedresetwithRussiaand
herroleinorchestratingthenucleardealwithahostileIranianregime,adayafterAlbright's
DemocraticsuccessoratFoggyBottomdeliveredablisteringspeechrippingTrump'sforeignpolicy
credentials.
"IamconcernedaboutsomeofthestatementsthatDonaldTrumphasmadethataredangerous,"
Albrightsaid."OntheissueofRussia,thefactthatDonaldTrumpadmiresPutinisoneofthereasons
thatIcan'tagreewithawordhesaysbecausetheresettakestwotoreset."
AlbrightblamedMoscowforthereset'sfailure,remarkingthatVladimirPutin"istheonethathasmade
veryaggressivemovesagainstUkraineandpushedEuropearound,whichiswhyweneedastrong
NATO."
"AndtheIrannucleardealhasmadeitclearthatIranwillnothaveanuclearweapon.Thatispositive.
SoIthinkpeoplethesearevery,verydifficultandcomplicatedissuesthatneedtobeexplained.AndI
thoughtSecretaryClinton'sspeechwentalongwaytolayingoutwhatwasarationalnationalsecurity
policy,"shesaid."AndIwouldhopeandIwouldbesohappytoparticipateinthis,ishavingreallyanin-
depthdiscussionoftheissuesthatareouttheresothatAmericawillbesafe.Andthat'swhatweneed
totalkaboutinsteadofname-calling,frankly."
Authors:
ShowComments
Senttime: 06/03/201608:58:11AM
Subject: FW:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
And:18pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
PutinismorSanctions,http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27760793.html
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsofPUTIN,
reuters.com,6/35pagearticle
And:PutinappearstobecarryingoutaPURGEofanumberofsilovikiandtopofficialsusing
CORRUPTIONasabludgeon:PESKOVrevealedthethemesdiscussedatPutinsSecurityCouncil
meeting,http://slon.ru/posts/68943
And:PutinsentintoretirementseveralsilovikiappointedunderMedvedev,rbc.ru,6/2
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,hasbeen
retired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408echo.html
And:Thefatigueofthecloseentourage:TheoldcadresarebeingPURGEDfromtheRussian
Politburo:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73335.html?print=1
And:WhatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanticorruptionunitsoftheFSBandMVD?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfromRussia,
telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp0lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Senttime: 06/03/201610:24:54AM
FW:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]
Subject: Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PB
SPD]PutinU...
Subject:Fwd:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JD
DD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinU...
Subject:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOF
READING][JDDD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[OD
DD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplans
paramilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStories
No.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]Fwd:"Chafingat
SANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounter
Russia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jun3,2016at11:57AM
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
UNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
And:18-pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsof
PUTIN,reuters.com,6/35-pagearticle
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,has
beenretired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408-echo.html
And:Whatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanti-corruptionunitsoftheFSBand
MVD?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfrom
Russia,telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp/lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Subject:Ukraine:USOSCE,USEKyiv,NYT(2),Economist,USNews,Politico[ED:THEOSCEMaterialIs
Invaluable][TheEconomistPieceonKharkivisaBitof"StinkyWinky"..possiblyreflectinga'Londongrad'
perspective]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Especiallyimportanttoread,process,disseminate,utilizeintherun-uptotheEUdecisiononRussiasanctions.And
DanBaersRightofReply(item2)totheRussianambassadorisoneforthebooks:
USMissiontotheOSCE
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-3/
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
June2,2016
TheUnitedStatesisdeeplyconcernedaboutthedeterioratingsituationintheconflictzoneineasternUkraine.CombinedRussian-
separatistforceshavesteppeduptheviolence,firedbannedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,andhavecontinuedtoobstructthe
workoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission,includingthreateningmonitors,shootingdownanSMMUAV,anddisablingSMM
surveillancecameras.Thesituationisparticularlytroublingbecausejustoneweekago,Ukraineproposedadetailed
disengagementplan,which,haditbeenimplemented,wouldhavecontributedtoasignificantde-escalationoftheconflict.Instead,
Russiarefusedtoengageinnegotiationsonde-escalationinaMay25meetingoftheJointCenterforCoordinationandControl,
andcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdramaticallyescalatedthefighting,causingUkrainetosufferitsworstcasualtiessince
August2015.Infact,thefightinghasgrowndeadliereverymonththisyear:oneUkrainiansoldierwaskilledinactioninJanuary,
sixinFebruary,twelveinMarch,fifteeninApril,andtwenty-seveninMay.Thissteadyescalationinviolencemustbereversed.
CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavesimultaneouslyincreasedattackswhilerestrictingtheSMMfromfulfillingitsmandate.
OnMay27,theSMMscamerainShyrokynerecordedmachinegunfirefromseparatistareasbeforeUkrainianforcesreturned
fire.AlsoonMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcescarriedoutanincursionacrossthecontactlineintogovernment-
controlledAvdiivka,leavingthreecasualtiesingovernment-controlledterritoryasproofofthisaggressiveact.Residentsof
DonetskcitytoldtheSMMthatDPRmembersfiredfromrooftopsbeforewithdrawing,andhadevenaskedtofiremortars
fromtheroofofahouse.SuchtacticsputciviliansindangerbyprovokingUkrainianforcestoreturnfire.Asaresultofsuch
actions,theSMMreportedanincreaseintheshellingofcivilianareasbybothsidesintheconflict.Thenumberofexplosionsin
Donetskaloneincreasedbyalmost75percentoverthepastweekascombinedRussian-separatistforcesresumedfiring
proscribed,destructive152mmartillery,reversingthedeclineinheavyweaponsuseinadeliberateescalation.
Thesurgeinceasefireviolationscorrelates,onceagain,withactsofviolence,intimidationanddenialofaccessagainsttheSMM.
TheSMMmusthavefull,safe,andunfetteredaccessthroughouttheentireconflictarea.WecondemntheincidentonMay27in
whichaseparatistfighterfiredwarningshotsintheairbeforetakingaimwithhisassaultrifleataSMMvehicletoforceaSMM
patroltoturnaround.Wealsocondemnanotherincident,onMay28,inwhichaSMMfootpatrolatthecontactlinecameunder
fire,apparentlyfromforcesingovernment-controlledterritory.WeregretthattheJointCenterforCoordinationandControlhas
failedtoinvestigateanysuchincidents.
Colleagues,inthePermanentCouncil,weheartheRussianFederationcallfor24/7monitoringofhotspots,buttheactionsofthe
combinedRussian-separatistforcesstandinstarkcontrasttothewordsspokenhere.Theseforcesappeartobepreparingthe
battlefieldforfurtheractionwhiletryingtopreventtheSMMfromobservingthesituationandreportingonittotheinternational
community.AsourUkrainiancolleaguesharedwithusafewmomentsago:theSMMreportedintodaysreportanunusualbuild-
upandamassingofheavyweaponsandpersonnelcarriersinDonetskandLuhanskcities,including24tanksinDonetskcityalone.
TheSMMcamerathatcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisablednearDonetskonMay20remainsinoperabledueto
separatistinterference.OnMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshotdowntheSMMslong-rangeUAVjustafterit
recordedaStrela-10surface-to-airmissileinDPR-controlledterritory.
TheStrela-10surface-to-airmissilethattheSMMsUAVrecorded,thekindofweaponunavailabletoseparatistswithoutRussian
support,isevenmoreevidenceofdirectRussianinvolvementintheconflict.Similarly,theOrlan-10UAVphotographedflyingover
UkrainianterritorytheweekbeforewouldnotbeavailabletoseparatistforceswithoutRussianhelp.Russiansupplies,equipment,
andpersonnelcontinuetoflowfromRussiaintoUkraine.AttheIzavarynecrossing,alongthepartofUkrainesinternational
borderwithRussiathatUkrainedoesnotcontrol,theSMMobservedalargenumberofpersonnelwhowerewellequipped,
armedandworeadistinctivegreenuniformwithoutinsignia.
TheseindividualsrefusedtospeaktotheSMM.WenotetheSMMstillhasnotreceivedfromtheseparatiststhesecurity
assurancesneededtoallowtheSMMtoopennewforwardpatrolbasesneartheinternationalborderandbeabletoeffectively
monitortheflowoffighters,weaponsandequipmentintoUkraine.
Colleagues,thewayforwardisclear:Stoppingtheviolencemustbethefirstprioritysowecanmakefurtherprogresson
implementingthepoliticalaspectsoftheMinskagreements.TheremustbeimmediateworkondisengagementintheTrilateral
ContactGroupanditssecurityworkinggroupandthepoliticalwilltocarryoutfullyanynewagreements.Russiamustcompel
theseparatistsitbackstoendtheviolenceonthecontactline,whichitdemonstratedtheabilitytodowhentheSeptember1,
2015,ceasefirewentintoeffect.
Asfightingworsens,itisthepeopleofUkrainewhobearthehighestcost.Wenotetherisingnumberofciviliancasualtiesfrom
landminesandunexplodedordnance.Theproblemseemsespeciallyacuteinseparatist-heldareas,wheretheSMMreported
tragicincidentsinwhichchildrenwereinjuredwhileplayingcatchwithananti-tankroundandbysteppingonalandmine.In
contraventionofacommitmentmadetoopentheciviliancrossingpointatZolote,Russia-backedseparatistshaveinsteadplaced
sixnewanti-tankminesthere.
TheexchangeandreleaseofdetaineesonthebasisoftheallforallprincipleintheMinskPackageofMeasuresisamuch-
neededconfidencebuildingmeasure.ItisalsoimperativethattheRussianFederationputanendtoimprisoningUkrainiancitizens
ontrumpedup,politically-motivatedcharges.ThereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkodoesnotrelievetheRussianFederationofits
responsibilitytofreeStanislavKlikh,MykolaKarpyuk,AkhtemCiygoz,OlegSentsov,AleksanderKolchenko,YuriySoloshenko,
OlexandrKostenkoandallotherUkrainiancitizensithaswrongfullyimprisoned.
RussiamustalsoputanendtoitsmistreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleandallotherswhorefusetorecognizeRussias
attemptedannexationofCrimea.TheoccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivists,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,anddozensofhomes,andinitiatedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatarsontrumpedupcharges.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatErwinIbrahimov,aboard
memberoftheCoordinationCounciloftheWorldCongressofCrimeanTatars,hasgonemissinginCrimea.Weremindthe
RussianFederationthateconomicsanctionsagainstitwillcontinueuntilitendsitsoccupation.
SanctionsimposedfortheRussianFederationsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplements
itscommitmentsintheMinskagreements,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccess
fortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbytheconflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredby
theOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturnto
Ukraineoffullcontroloveritsinternationalborder.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna
RightofReplytoRussiaonitsOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/right-reply-russia-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc/
June2,2016
IjustwantedtorespondtoonepartofthedistinguishedRussiancolleaguesstatementwherehesaidthatseveralcolleagues
aroundthistabledontcareaboutanythinghappeninginUkraineotherthanRussiasfuelingoftheongoingconflict.
Justtoremind,thetopicunderwhichtheUnitedStatesspeaksisTheongoingviolationsofinternationallawanddefianceof
OSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsbytheRussianFederationinUkraine,andsowearespeakingexclusivelyonthattopicunder
thisitem.ButwehavespokenbothinthisforumandfromthepodiuminWashingtonaboutothereventsinUkraineincludingthe
hackofjournalistsinformation,asIreportedafewweeksago,whichwasdiscussedfromthepodiumbyourStateDepartment
spokesperson.AndgiventhatthedistinguishedRussianambassadorhasraisedthisagaintoday,andourallegednon-concernfor
otherthingshappeningUkraine,IdliketotakethisopportunitytocongratulatetheVerkhovnaRadatodayforpassingnotonlythe
constitutionalprovisionsforjudicialreform,butalsotheimplementinglegislation.Obviouslythisisonehuge,positive,forwardstep,
andithastobefollowedupbymoreforwardsteps,notleasttheimplementationoftheactuallegislationandthereform,butIthink
thisisareallyimportantstepforwardinreformingUkrainesjudiciaryindeliveringonthepromiseoftheRevolutionofDignity,and
whatpeoplewereontheMaidandemanding:agovernmentthatrespectsthehumanrightsofitspeople,andismovingtowardsa
trulyindependentjudiciary.
AndIlookforwardtothedaythatsuchreformsaretakeninRussiaaswell.
USEmbassyKyiv
U.S.SignsLoanGuaranteeAgreementForUkraine
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Friday,June3,2016
TheUnitedStatesandUkrainesignedtodaya$1billionloanguaranteeagreement,thethird$1billionloanguaranteeprovidedby
theU.S.toUkrainesinceMay2014.ThisguaranteereinforcestheUnitedStatesstrongcommitmenttothepeopleofUkraineby
strengtheningtheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoinstitutereformsthatreducecorruption,improvethebusinessclimate,
stabilizetheeconomy,andmakethegovernmentmoreresponsivetothepeople.
"The$1billionloanguaranteewillhelpsupporttheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoimplementitseconomicreform
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaid."TheguaranteesendsastrongsignaloftheUnitedStatescontinuedsupportfor
UkraineasitpursuesreformsthatfulfilltheUkrainianpeople'saspirationsforaprosperousanddemocraticfuture."
TheU.S.loanguaranteeispartofacomprehensiveinternationalfinancialpackage.Whenissued,theloanguaranteewillprovide
theGovernmentofUkrainewithaccesstoaffordablefinancingfrominternationalcapitalmarkets,enablingittoprovidecritical
servicesandprotectthemostvulnerableUkrainiansfromtheimpactofnecessaryeconomicadjustmentsasitimplementskey
reforms.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,UkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,UkrainianMinisterofFinanceOleksandr
Danylyuk,AmbassadorPyatt,andActingMissionDirectorfortheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopmentJoelSandefur
participatedinthesigningceremonyinKyiv,Ukraine.
Alsoread:
StatementbyTreasurySecretaryJacobJ.LewonUkraineLoanGuaranteeAgreement,06.03.2016
RemarksbyAmbassadorPyattatSigningCeremonyforLoanGuaranteeforUkraine,06.03.2016(especiallynotelast
para)
TheNewYorktimes
U.S.SignsThird$1BillionLoanGuaranteeAgreementforUkraine
ByREUTERSJUNE3,2016,5:45A.M.E.D.T.
KIEVTheUnitedStatesandUkrainesigneda$1billionloanguaranteeagreementonFriday,thethirdsuchagreement
providedbyWashingtontoKievsinceMay2014.
WashingtonhadpromisedtheaidlastNovemberbutmadeitcontingentonKievcontinuingtopushreforms,whichhadbeen
derailedbymonthsofpoliticalturmoil.
ThesigningcomesadayaftertheUkrainianparliamentpassedlegislationaimedattacklingentrenchedcorruptioninthejudicial
system.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaidinastatement.
UkraineisstillinnegotiationswiththeInternationalMonetaryFundforthethirdtrancheofabailoutdealworth$1.7billion.
(ReportingbyMatthiasWilliamsEditingbyGarethJones)
TheNewYorkTimes
UkrainianPresidentCondemnsLeakofJournalistData
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE3,2016,9:54A.M.E.D.T.
KIEV,UkraineUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohascondemnedtheleakofthenamesandcontactinformationfor
thousandsofjournalistswhohavereportedfromrebel-controlledeasternUkraine.
TheMaypublicationbyhackersfromagroupcalledMyrotvoretshasraisedconcernsaboutthesafetyofthejournalists,manyof
themfrominternationalmediaorganizations.
SomeUkrainianofficials,includingtheinteriorminister,havewelcomedthepublicationandhaveaccusedthejournalistsof
accessorytoterrorism.
PoroshenkoonFridaytoldreportersthatthepublicationwasa"bigmistake"andcalledforaprobeintotheleak.Poroshenko,
however,calledonjournalistsnottowrite"negativearticles"aboutUkraineandsaidsomeRussianreportersfromthelistsmade
"criminalthings."
AmbassadorstoUkrainefromtheGroupofSevencountriesonThursdayexpressedconcernaboutthepublication.
TheEconomist
Thecitybeta-testingUkrainesrevolution
InRussian-speakingKharkiv,theITindustryisoneofthefewthingsthatisthriving
May27th2016|Europe
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699545-russian-speaking-kharkiv-it-industry-one-few-things-thriving-city
MYKOLARIDNIYisayoungvideoartistinKharkiv,thesecond-largestcityinUkraine,justfortykilometresfromtheRussian
border.Hislatestvideo,featuringpeacefulstreetscenessettoasoundtrackofriots,recallstheeventsoftwoyearsago,whenthe
citynearlyfelltotheRussian-backedseparatistswhonowcontrolothercitiesinthesouth-east,DonetskandLuhansk.Today,
KharkivremainsalitmustestforwhetherUkrainecansatisfyitsRussian-speakingpeopleandturnitselfintoafunctionalcountry.
OpinionsdifferonhowcloseKharkivcametobecomeanotherbreakawaypeoplesrepublic.Mostresidentsliketothinkthe
violencewasimposedfromoutside,bywhoeverpaidforthethugswhoarrivedinbusesfromovertheRussianbordertoattack
supportersofthepro-EuropeanMaidan.Others,likeMrRydniy,pointoutthatplentyoflocalsbackedRussiatoo.Peopleknow
thattheirneighboursweresupportingtheRussianside,hesays.
Kharkivhasalwaysbeenabitgranderthanitscoal-dustedneighbours.Inthelate1800s,localcoalmagnatesbuiltflamboyant
mansionshere.UndertheSovietUnionthecitybecameacentreforadvancedengineering.Aproudlittlemuseumwithinthe
KharkivAviationInstituteshowsphotographsoftheKhAI-1,thefirstEuropeanpassengerplanewithretractablelandinggear,and
ofValentinaGrizodubeva,apioneeraviatrixwhobrokeworldrecordsinthe1930s,andledanall-womenRedAirForce
squadronduringthewar.
Today,thoughtheInstituteswell-keptcampusbustleswithstudents(aquarterofthemfromoverseas),theattachedaircraft
factorystandssilent.Productionhaltedseveralyearsago.ThelossoftheRussianmarkethasdealtaneardeath-blowtostate-
ownedmonolithsthatwereinneedofmodernisationanyway.TheKharkivTractorPlanthasvirtuallyceasedproduction
Turboatom,amakerofturbinesfornuclearpowerstations,haslostthebulkofitssales,ashasMalyshev,atankmanufacturer.Itis
hardtoseewherenewinvestmentmightcomefrom.
ForeignersarefrightenedoffbyKharkivsproximitytothefrontline,andtheUkrainiannewrichprefertomakequickerbucksin
propertyorcommodities.
Fortheyoungengineersstillpouringoutofthecitysinstitutes,thebignewindustryisinformationtechnology.Morethan200IT
firmsemploysome14,000softwaredevelopers,andboastarosterofbig-nameAmericanandEuropeanclients.Aco-working
spaceforstart-upsinthedilapidatedtowncentreticksalltheboxes:exposedbrickwork,boardgames,amanwithpinkhair
strummingaukulele.PavelNaumenko,formerdirectoroftheaviationplantwhonowproduceselectronicsfordrones,sees
Kharkivasatechnologicalmagnetcityforthewholecountry,promisingUkraineabrightfuture.

Themainroadblockisbadgovernment,andthemayor,GennadyKernes,isaprimeexample.Convictedoffraudintheearly
1990s,MrKernesnowcommandsamurkyfortuneintelevision,telecomsandrealestate.Heenjoysputtingphotosofhimself
cuddlingpuppiesandblondesonsocialmedia,andhehaslocalpoliticssewnup.Thanksinparttosplashyspendingaglittering
newOrthodoxcathedralandalavishchildrensamusementparkhewon66%ofthevoteatlastOctoberslocalelections.His
rivals,oppositionactivistDmitriDrobotsays,weretechnicalcandidatesputuptodividethevote,apartfromonegenuinebut
little-knownopponentwhotookjust12%.
Therealpoliticstakesplacebehindthescenes,andbecomesvisibleonlywhenitleadstoviolence.Duringthecrisistwoyearsago
MrKernesinitiallybackedtheRussiansbeforeswitchingsides.Soonafter,hewasshotwhilejogging.Henowusesawheelchair.
InFebruaryofthisyearoneofhisoldestfriends,reputedlyhismoneymanager,wasshotdeadinalocalcemetery.
Asthroughoutthecountry,reforminitiativesarehamperedbycorruption.StaffattheKharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup,an
NGOthatprovideslegalaid,saysthatatleasthalfofalljudgesshouldbereplaced,andevenmoreprosecutors.Thedirectorofa
German-fundedprogrammeforrefugees(thereare111,000inthecity)saysherelderlyclientsarepreyeduponbybribe-taking
doctors,andthereislittleshecando:ifsheexposescorruption,maybeourclientwontgettreatmentinthefuture.AWestern-
fundedanti-corruptionwatchdogsaysitisplayingaconstantgameofcatch-up:Weexposeonescheme,andtheythinkupanew,
moreelaborateone.
NobodythinksaKharkivpeoplesrepublicisintheoffing.TheseparatistswarhasdestroyedtheeconomiesofDonetskand
LuganskasMrDrobotsays,Peopleknowtheresnofuturethere.Ontheotherhand,Kharkivhasneverbeenasidealisticas
KievabouttheboldpromisesoftheMaidanrevolution.Itnowseesitsscepticismvindicated.Disillusioned,fullofpotentialbut
heldbackbybadleaders,KharkivisinmanywaysUkraineinminiature.In2014,cheeringcrowdsusedacranetopulldownits
giantcentralLeninstatue,leavingonlyhisbroken-offfeet.Kievsnewrevolutionarieswillneedtodobetteriftheywanttoescape
thesamesortofcontempt.
U.S.NewsandWorldReport
Russia'sGreatPowerChoice
ByWilliamCourtneyandDonaldJensen
June1,2016
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-01/russias-occupation-of-eastern-ukraine-is-hurting-its-world-power-status
Moscowseeksacoercivesphereofinfluenceoverneighborsandgreatpowerstatusbeyond,butthesegoalsareincompatible.
OnlybypullingoutofeasternUkraineandreformingitseconomycanRussiagainbroaderacceptanceandreachitspotentialasa
greatpower.Inasimilarvein,lastweekatararemeetingofPresidentVladimirPutinwithhiseconomiccouncil,formerFinance
MinisterAlexeiKudrin,Russianmediareportssay,urgedaneasingofgeopoliticaltensionstohelptheeconomy.
TheKremlinhasfacedasimilarchoicebefore.Inthe1980s,theUSSRwasboggeddowninAfghanistanandisolated.China,Iran
andAmerica,amongothers,boycottedthe1980summerOlympicsinMoscow.TheSovieteconomy,burdenedbywasteandlow
oilprices,wasweakened.Technologylagged.Inthelate1980s,theKremlinfinallysoughtrelief.Sothathecouldfocusonfixing
theSovietsystem,PresidentMikhailGorbacheveasedforeignpressuresbylettinggoofWarsawPactalliesandconcludingarms
controlaccordswiththeWest.
Moscownowfaceslessbutstillsignificantpressure.TheRussian-backedarmedrebellioninDonbashasledtoWesternsanctions
neverbeforeimagined.ManysourcesofinternationalfinancingtoRussia'scapital-starvedeconomyareclosed.Thebuyingpower
offamilies,sappedbyinflationandrubledepreciation,isfalling.Inadditiontosanctions,lowoilpricesandstructuralinefficiencies
arebleedingtheeconomy.Dropsinconstructionandinvestmentdarkenthefuture.Creationofa400,000-strongnationalguard,
reportingdirectlytoPutin,hintsatconcernaboutpopularunrest.
ThequickestwayforRussiatorelievesomeoftheaccumulatingstrainistowithdrawitsforcesfromDonbasandendsupportfor
itsproxies,theso-calledseparatists.UkrainewouldregaincontrolofitsborderwithRussia,withmonitoringfromtheOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope.AninternationalefforttorebuildeasternUkrainecouldfollow,includingcontributions
fromRussiaandtheWest.AlthoughatpresentaRussianwithdrawalseemsimprobable,itwouldendthemostonerousWestern
sanctionsandbrighteneconomicprospects.
TheFebruary2015MinskaccordsestablishedapartialceasefireinDonbasandprovidedtermstofacilitateapoliticalsettlement.
Fightinghasdeclinedfromitspeak,butMoscowstillwagesalow-levelproxywar.Contrarytotheaccords,Russiarefusesto
allowOSCEmonitorstocontroltheborder.Donbaslackssecurityforfreeandfairelections,andUkraine'sgovernmentmaybe
tooweaktoconductthem.
Economicreformcanalsoeasepressure.Asinthe1980s,declininglivingstandardsaredispiriting.Disgruntlementoverdelayed
anderodingpayisrising.Yetreformstoboostproductivityandcreatenewsourcesofeconomicgrowthareopposedby
entrenchedandstate-connectedinterests,andbymanyRussians.IfMoscowdelaysreform,itwillloseinternationalheft.Russiais
barelyaneconomicgreatpowerlastyearitsGDPwas10thinsizeamongG-20countries.
Despiteitschallenges,Russiaplayssomegreatpowerroles.True,asPresidentBarackObamahaspointedout,Russiadoesnot
"settheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant"inG-20meetings.Nonetheless,Moscow'scooperationintheP5+1
formatthefivepermanentmembersoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilandGermanyhelpedachievethehistoricnucleardealwith
Iran.RussiaandAmericateameduptodestroySyrianchemicalweapons.Russiamayhaveanothergreatpoweropportunityifit
helpstoresolvetheSyriacrisis.
AslongasitoccupiesDonbas,however,Russiacanhopeonlyforlimitedgains.Againthe1980sareillustrative.Evenasthe
USSRandtheWestagreedinGenevatoslashnuclearweaponry,WashingtonwasarmingmujahedeenfightersinAfghanistan.
Moscowlackedwideinternationalsupportuntilitwithdrewfromthere,beganmovingtroopsoutofEasternEuropeandended
communistruleathome.
Agreatpowerhasaportfolioofinterestsandsometimeshastoabandonanunproductiveventure.ItwaspainfulfortheUSSRto
cedeAfghanistanin1989,asitwasforAmericatoleaveVietnamin1975andIraqin2011.Thesedecade-longinvestments
yieldedpoorreturnsandlostpopularsupport.
AnotherriskforRussiaisthatifitdelaysinexitingDonbas,Westernattitudesmayharden.Thismightalreadybehappening.In
February,WashingtonwarnedU.S.investmentbanksnottohelpunderwriteMoscow'sfirstinternationalsovereignbondoffering
sincetheseizureofCrimea.DayslaterBrusselscautionedEuropeaninvestmentbanks.Moscowabandoneditsplan.TheWest
wasworriedthatMoscowwoulddivertsomebondsaleproceedstosanctionedentities.MostWesternbanksinRussiaare
reducingoperationsorleaving.LargeChineseandotherinternationalbanksarealsowary.Theyfearcompromisingtheirlarger
interestsintheWest,orinfringingsanctionsoranti-money-launderinglaws.
MountingfrustrationisalsoreflectedinanewbillbeforetheU.S.Congress.Itwoulddenythepresidenttheauthoritytolift
Donbas-relatedsanctionsunlessthepresident"certified"thatUkrainehadregainedcontroloverCrimea,anunlikelyprospect.

IfRussiadoesdecidetocutitslossesandpulloutofDonbas,arrangementsmaynotbehardtofindonsuchissuesasrefugees,
amnestyformostfightersandaid.SomeinDonbasmightwanttosettlescores,butethnicUkrainiansandRussianstherehavelong
livedtogether.Internationalpeacekeepers,policeandmonitorscouldcontainrisks.
IfRussianaggressioninDonbaspersists,however,workingtogetherconstructivelywillbemoredifficult.AndtheWestwillneither
acceptMoscow'sannexationofCrimeanoroverlookpersecutionofitsTatarminority.
WilliamCourtneyisanadjunctseniorfellowattheRANDCorporationandwasU.S.ambassadortoKazakhstanand
Georgia.DonaldJensenisaseniorfellowattheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsintheSchoolofAdvanced
InternationalStudiesatTheJohnsHopkinsUniversity
Andforadifferentperspectivefromwhatmanyofushavebeenhearingandreading:
Politico
UkrainianinnocentcaughtinPanamaPapersweb
For20years,PetroPoroshenkowasatax-compliantbusinessman.NowUkrainespresidentisunderfireforgraft.
ByAdrianKaratnyckyandAlanRiley
6/3/16,5:30AMCET
Read:http://www.politico.eu/article/panama-papers-defending-ukraine-president-petro-poroshenko-corruption-tax-finance-
evasion/
Subject:PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds|FoundationforDefenseof
Democracies
Idon'tthinkRussia'sgoalistore-estalishtheparitythatemergedafterWWII.Rather,it'stoturnthetablesandestablishRussia
asthesoleworldpowerabletodictatetermsoflifeandexistencetoall.TheonlypotentialchallengewouldbeChina,withwhom
Russiaispresentlyifnotallied,thenatleastcollaboratingonanullaostabasis.Inthefuture,whoknows?MaybePutinwilloffer
theChinesestatusasHonoraryRusskijMirists,muchasHitlerofferJapanstatusasHonoraryArians.ForRussiait'sonlya
questionofwhichoneofthemwilldominatetheWestitbeingunderstoodthatthesunhassetontheWest(US/EU)andtheWest
needstogetusedtoitsnewstatusassecondrategeopoliticalpowers.
study/
Subject:Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia-BBCNews
It'sanimportantstart.EveryoneinPolandshouldhavemilitarytrainingaswellasbepreparedtodealwithtacticalnuclearattacks
byRussia.KaliningradneedstobereturnedtoEurope.PolandandUkraineshouldhaveaworkablemilitaryalliance.
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#863[ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com",31MORE
Friday,June3,2016
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34
PaulGoble
Staunton,June3--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussianFederationoften
appearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcantbediscussedin
detailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiapresentsaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheendof
eachweek.Thisisthe34thsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,onceagain,onecouldhaveput
outsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.JustHowManyPutinsareThere?ThedifferencesinVladimirPutinsappearanceatvariouspublicfunctionsisso
greatthatmanysuspectthatage,exerciseandBotoxcannotexplainthevariation.Oneanalysthastriedtoestimatejust
howmanydoublestheRussianpresidentmayhave.Whatisclearisthateventheoriginalisonetoomany(forum-
msk.org/material/politic/11849107.html).

2.AnotherLetThemEatCakeMoment.AfterDmitryMedvedevsremarkthatthereisnomoneybuthaveanice
day,itdidnotseemlikelythatanyRussianofficialwouldapproachthelevelofMarieAntoinettesinfamouscomment.But
onehas.FacedwiththefactthatRussiansarebeingforcedtocutbackonfood,oneofficialhasobservedthatitisa
Russiancustomtoeatpoorly(slon.ru/posts/68733).
3.MoscowWantsPollsterstoStopFocusingonPovertybutGovernmentStatisticsTelltheTale.TheRussian
governmentwantspollsterstostopaskingaboutpovertybecausetheKremlinisinsistingthatlifeisgettingbetterandmore
joyous(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-01/1_vciom.html).Buttheregimesownstatisticsshowhowwidespreadpovertyisin
Russia:oneinfourlivesinhousingwithsewerconnectionsandoneinthreelivesinhousingwithoutconnectiontonatural
gaslines(gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/housing/#).Andthisweekbroughtnewand
damningindicationsofhowthingsaregettingworse:Forthefirsttimeever,Russianspurchasedfewermedicinesinthefirst
quarterofthisyear,evenasreportsspreadabouthospitalsrunningoutofcriticalvaccines
(vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2016/06/01/643167-prodazhi-lekarstvandsobkorr.ru/news/574D492917C6A.html).
4.UralsPoliceTraintoDisperseWorkerProtests.IfinMoscow,thepoliceappearmostconcernedabout
demonstrationsbymiddleclassgroups,intheUrals,thepolicearenowtrainingspecificallytocounteranyworkingclass
revolts(politsovet.ru/51980-policiya-uchitsya-razgonyat-protesty-uralskih-rabochih.html).Atthesametime,theKremlinis
seekingtomakesureofitsgenerals:theyandtheirwivesarebeingpaidmoreandarericherthaneverbefore,accordingto
anRBCstudy(rbc.ru/photoreport/26/05/2016/5745e00b9a79472b77806b0f).
5.ChelyabinskPoliceProposeBurningHarmfulBooksandThoseWhoReadThem.PoliceinChelyabinskhave
calledforburningallharmfulbooksandthosewhoreadthem(ura.ru/news/1052251365),ataskthatmayposea
challengegiventhatRussians,shortofcash,areshiftingfromrealbookstoonlineversions(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-
01/4_income.html).
6.WestsInformationWarStrongerNowthanDuringColdWar,MoscowHistorianSays.ARussianhistoriansays
thattheWestsinformationcampaignagainstRussiaisnowstrongerthanitwasduringtheColdWar,forcingMoscowin
hiswordstocomeupwithwaysofcounteringit(izvestia.ru/news/615828).HisremarkscomeasWashingtonended
RadioLibertysshortwavebroadcastingtoRussia(svoboda.org/content/article/27769319.html).
7.OneWrongPostCanScrewUpYourWholeLife,RussianOfficialSays.ThereasonthatMoscowappearstobe
huntingdownthosewhopostarticlesandpicturesorlikesthattheKremlindoesntlikeisthatgivingpeopleacriminal
recordmeansthatyourentirelifewillbescrewedup(graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.251741.html).Givenhowmany
arebeingroundedupbythiscampaign,Moscowmaybecreatingitsownnemesis
(bigstory.ap.stfi.re/article/0274242811894097a9d79f789002aab0/dozens-russia-imprisoned-social-media-likes-reposts?
nc=1464707919310&sf=xdlwvew).
8.RussiaGetsItsOwnRenamingControversies.DecisionsbyofficialstonameabridgeinSt.Petersburgafter
AkhmetKadyrov,aneighborhoodinIrkutskafterRamzannotAkhmet,andastreetinYekaterinburgwherethelasttsar
andhisfamilyweremurderedTsaristhavecreatedaseriousproblemwithrenaminginRussiaandsparkedwidespread
debateoverwhatitmeansandwhethertheRussianauthoritiesplantorenametheNevatheTerek,ariverintheNorth
Caucasus(politsovet.ru/51972-v-ekaterinburge-poyavilas-carskaya-
ulica.html,rufabula.com/news/2016/05/31/kadyriya,rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/05/30/1518905.html,
andecho.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1773276-echo/).
9.RISIBlamesUSforSpreadofHIV/AIDSinRussia,SaysCondomsDontWorkAgainstIt.TheRussianInstitute
forStrategicStudieswhichisattachedtotheofficeoftheRussianpresidentandfrequentlygivesVladimirPutinadvicesays
theUSisresponsibleforthespreadofHIV/AIDSinRussiaandthatcondomsdonotprovideprotectionagainstitsspread
(kommersant.ru/doc/3000818andkasparov.ru/material.php?id=574E7E95071A1).
10.MoscowCallsforaRussianInternetbutRussiansNowUseGoogleMorethanYandex.Russianofficialswantto
createaRussianversionofalmosteverythingincludingtheInternetaspartoftheKremlinsimportsubstitutioneffort,but
evenastheyaremakingsuchdemands,RussiansareincreasinglyusingWesternsearchenginesratherthanRussianones.
InApril,forthefirsttime,RussiansusedGooglemorethanYandexwhentheywentonline
(slon.ru/posts/68761andnovayagazeta.ru/economy/73262.html).
11.RussiaMustMakePlanstoDestroyMerchantShippingofNATOCountries,AnalystSays.Aleksandr
Verkhoturov,aRussiananalystwithclosetiestotheRussiangovernment,saysthatRussiandefenseplannershavefocused
toomuchondestroyingNATOaircraftcarriersandshoulddevotemoreattentiontosinkingtheshipsofthemerchant
marineofNATOcountries.ThatwillleaveRussiainastrongerpositionafteranywar,heargues
(apn.ru/publications/article35056.htm).
12.YakutskNewspaperWarnsofDisinformationonMoscowTVStation.AnewspaperintheSakhacapitalhasputa
warningatthetopofitsTVschedulelistingswarningviewersthatNTVisfullofdisinformationandthusshouldbe
approachedcautiously(business-gazeta.ru/article/312157).
13.MoreRevenantsfromtheSovietPast.Increasingly,attacksonWesternauthorsresemblethebourgeoisfalsifier
articlesofSoviettimes,somethingthatmeanstheWesternargumentsaregettingthroughbecausetheyarerepeated,albeit
inadistortedway,tomakeMoscowspoints(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Ukraine-pytayutsya-vnushit-chto-ona-
spyativshaya-nedostrana-120062.html).CollectivefarmsareslatedtoreturninIrkutskoblastwhichhasaKPRF
governor(rbc.ru/business/27/05/2016/574803e29a7947b6a1787f8f?from=main).CossacksareagainguardingRussian
borders(nazaccent.ru/content/20832-stanichniki-pogranichniki.html).Andthewordimperialisevermoreoftenfoundin
thenamesofRussianstores,restaurants,andhotels(holywarium.com/3835/our-empire).
AndsixmorefromcountriesneighboringRussia:
14.TajikGastarbeitersIncreasinglyMarryingRussians.InatrendthatpeopleinTajikistansaytheydonotopposebut
thatsomeRussiannationalistsareupsetby,evermoreTajikgastarbeitersinRussiancitiesaremarryinglocalRussian
women(dw.com/p/1Iwzp).
15.Anti-PutinSlogansNowMoreWidespreadinDonetsthaninUkraine.Accordingtooneobserver,visitorsare
morelikelytoencounteranti-PutinslogansamongthepopulationoftheDNRandLNRthantheyaretoseeorhearthem
inUkraineitself(politobzor.net/show-94346-antiputinskie-lozungi-v-donecke-skoro-budut-populyarnee-chem-na-
ukraine.html).
16.DneprWasAlwaysWhatLocalResidentsCalledDneprpetrovsk.ManyintheUkrainiancitynowknownasDnepr
alwayscalleditthatinformallyandareonlysurprisedthatofficialsshouldwanttomakewhathadbeenakindofidentifier
oflocalresidentsintoanofficialname(nv.ua/opinion/turkova/mesta-zvat-nado-134115.html).
17.ChinaNowInvestingMoreinKazakhstanthaninRussia.MoscowmayhaveturnedtowardBeijingpolitically,but
ChinesebusinessinterestsarenowinvestingfarmoreinKazakhstanthanintheRussianFederation(ng.ru/world/2016-06-
02/7_china.html).

18.DefendersofAnti-RussianGroupEmergeinKazakhstan.AfterAstanabegantorepressanorganizationthatwas
openlypro-Kazakhandanti-Russian,agroupdefendingthatorganizationhasemergedandthusspreadthemessageofthe
group(fergananews.com/news/24825).
19.BalticAmazonsBackThisTimeinUkraine.Somepropagandatropesarejusttoogoodtogiveup.Now,25
yearsafterMoscowblamedthemforallsortsofanti-Sovietandanti-Russianactivities,Russianpropagandistsareagain
talkingaboutBalticamazonsandsuggestingthattheyareactivelyworkingagainstMoscowinUkraine
(rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/020616-pribaltika-ukraina/).
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-bakers-dozen-of-neglected-russian.html
15:46Jun.2,2016
WarinEastbroughtmodernslaverytoUkraine
WalkFreeFoundation
Ukraineoccupies33rdplaceforthenumberofslaves,accordingtotheresearch
InUkraine,thereareover210,000slaves.ThisisaccordingtotheWalkFreeFoundation,ananti-slavery
organization.ItclaimsUkrainenotonlyoccupies33rdplaceinGlobalSlaveryIndex,butalsogoesfaraheadofthe
neighboringPoland,RomaniaandMoldova.
ThewarineasternUkraine,wheretheleadersoftheself-proclaimedrepublicsarerecruitingchildren,is
amongthemainreasonsofthemodernslaveryinUkraine.Russian-backedseparatistforceswerealso
reportedtomakelocalsworkfortheso-calledpunitiveforces'aspenaltymeasuresevenforminor
violationsoftheregimerulesintheoccupiedterritories.
http://uatoday.tv/society/war-in-east-brought-modern-slavery-to-ukraine-walk-free-foundation-665808.html
Ex-SeparatistLeaderLaunchesPartyAimedatRestoringRussiasEmpire
MOSCOW-IgorGirkin,aformercommanderandself-declareddefenseministerofUkraines
separatistDonetskPeoplesRepublic,hasofficiallyannouncedthecreationofanultra-
nationalist,irredentistpoliticalpartyknownastheRussianNationalMovement.
AformerFSBcolonelandveteranofseveralpost-Sovietwars,Girkinrosetoprominenceinthe
earlystagesofUkraineswarintheeasternDonbassregion.Knownforhisstridentlyanti-
WesternrhetoricandRussianchauvinism,Girkinsaidhismovementwouldjoinwithotherlike-
mindednationalistpoliticalgroupstocreateapartythatwouldreassertMoscowsauthority
overitsformerimperialdominions.
ThemovementhelditsfirstpartycongressinMoscowonMay28whereitunveiledapolitical
platformthataimstorestoreRussiasimperialglory.
"ThelandswhereRussianslive,whicharesoakedinthebloodoftheRussianpeople,have
therighttobecomeapartofRussia.WewillunitetheRussianFederation,Ukraine,Belarus
andotherhistoricRussianlandsintoasingleall-Russiansuperstateandtransformtheentire
territoryoftheformerSovietUnionintoanunconditionalRussiansphereofinfluence,"the
partysmanifestosays.
http://georgiatoday.ge/news/3927/Ex-Separatist-Leader-Launches-Party-Aimed-at-Restoring-Russia%E2%80%99s-Empire

Wednesday,June1,2016
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,GazetaEditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalselysupposedwasthe
throneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutotherstonotethatRussiaeventodayin
manywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,accordingtotheeditorsofMoscowsGazeta.
Russiansborrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoitspoliticalhabitsinboth
foreignanddomesticpolicy,thepapersays,notingthattheseincludesayingonething,thinkinganotherand
doingathirdtherebymakingtherelationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassedthroughataminimum
fourdifferentstatestheMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,theUSSRandnowpost-SovietRussia.
TheydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhatthatmeansoronthefactthatByzantiumisnotthemost
successfulofmodels.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-remains-byzantine-state-and-that.html
IsaNewIronCurtainFallingOverRussia?
ByOlaCichowlas
May.26201614:06
ThefalloftheSovietUniongaveRussiansatasteforseveralfreedoms.Some,likefreedomofexpressionandassembly,
arenolongertakenforgranted.Others,likefreedomoftravel,areatleastbythemoniedandmobile.Inrecentyears,
however,authoritieshavemadeitclearthatthisfreedomwasnolongerautomaticforthoseitseesasundesirable.New
proposalstoamendRussia'sexistingterrorismlaws,publishedthismonth,raisetheprospectofsuchbansbeinggiven
evenwiderapplication.
"Everyyear,afewhundredRussiansarechargedforthesimplematterofhavinganopinion,"saysAlexanderVerkhovsky,
thedirectorofMoscow'sSOVACenter,whichmonitorsabusesofanti-extremismlegislation.Verkhovskybelievesthis
particularbillwouldbeaclearlimitationofrights,asitwouldenableauthoritiestopunishanindividualpriortoacourt
decision.
Theno-flylistnowalsoincludesdebtorsthoseavoidingpayingbackloansorwhoarebehindintheirtaxpayments.
Duringacrisis,anestimated4millionpeopleareatriskoffallingintothiscategory.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/is-a-new-iron-curtain-falling-over-russia/570259.html
Thursday,June2,2016
RussiaBecomingaCountrywith15MegalopolisesSurroundedbyEmptyLand,
YasinSays
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-becoming-country-with-15.html
RussiasmainpeaceinstrumentiswarSerhyTaran
Moscowhasnootherinstrumentsofpeacebutfanningarmedconflicts.ForRussia,itisabasicpeacetool,arenownedexpert
SerhyTaransaysJune1.
"EachtimetheprolongationofsanctionsisontheWestsagenda,Russiaresortstodoublepolitics.Ontheonehand,itbeatsits
breastssayingitfavorsapeacefulsettlementandimplementationoftheMinskagreements.Ontheotherhand,Moscowstepsup
militaryactivitiesinDonbas,pushingUkrainetoagreetoitstermstoavoidthelossesofitsservicemen.
Itsakindofagood/badcopgame,withDonbasrebelsplayingtheroleofbadcopsforUkraineandPutinbeingtheviceversa.
:http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/06/01/russias_main_peace_instrument_is_war__serhy_taran_704317
TheUnravelingOfMoscow's'Novorossia'Dream
Aleksandr traveled to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, in February 2014 to work for the Russian Unity party
of Sergei Aksyonov, who went on to become Crimea's de facto governor following Russias annexation of the
Ukrainian region. After the annexation, Aleksandr worked within Aksyonovs administration.
'Little Green Men'
His main duties involved organizing Crimeas local defense volunteers. These hastily assembled and poorly
equipped groups were tasked with standing between the Ukrainian military and the infamous little green
men Russian military forces operating in masks without insignias.
Initially, Aleksandr said, there was no money for arms or equipment. But on March 3, the Russiabacked
insurgents managed to take over local branches of several Ukrainian banks. Money started coming in by the
bagful every day, Aleksandr said.
Soon, he was able to offer volunteers up to 800 rubles (roughly $22.40 at the time) a day, and the number
of recruits skyrocketed. After Russian intelligence forces took over the regional Supreme Soviet on February
28, Ukrainian police forces across Crimea seemingly melted away, and Aleksandrs selfdefense forces
scrambled to replace them.
He remembers the first week of March as particularly tense, as proRussia Crimeans waited nervously for any
sign from Moscow.
Until March 6, it was forbidden to speak about unification with Russia or to hang the Russian flag, he says.
Everyone was waiting for a final decision to be made in Moscow.
Aleksandr believes Moscow was waiting to see how Ukraines military would respond to the unfolding
situation. Only after it became apparent that Kyiv was not ready for a confrontation did the Kremlin give the
final goahead.
Russian flags that had been shipped in by the ton were unfurled, and a referendum on independence was
scheduled. Aleksandrs selfdefense forces began arming themselves with weapons taken from Ukrainian
armories
At the same time, more and more representatives of Moscow were appearing in the offices of the de
facto Crimean government. One day a man showed up at Aleksandrs office and said, Im Sasha, a PR
specialist from Moscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/unraveling-moscow-novorossia-dream/27772641.html

UsingRussianFacebookIsaBadIdea
UnlessYouThinktheAnnexationof
CrimeaIsReallyGreat
Roughlyhalfofthe233peopleconvictedofhatespeechlastyearinRussiawere
usingthepopularFacebookcloneVKontakte.Buthatespeechisntalwayshate
speech.Sometimesyoucouldgotojailfortwoyearsforsharingamemeabout
toothpasteandCrimeatoyourtwelveonlinefriends,theAPreports.
http://gawker.com/using-russian-facebook-is-a-bad-idea-unless-you-think-t-1779614952
CrimeaforRussians:faceoffproject
JustafterCrimeaaccessiontoRussiatherewerealotoftalksaboutthemultiple-vectorCrimea
development.Russiangovernmentlaiddownplansregardingtourism,medicine,winemaking,
infrastructure,energeticdevelopment.Alotofpromiseswereheardtosolvetheproblemswithwater
supplyandpurification,withtransportconnection,etc.Theplanofestablishingarecreation,
entertainmentandgamblingarea,inotherwords,ofturningtheislandintomodernLasVegas,was
seriouslydiscussed.ThefreeeconomiczonewasconsideredtobecreatedinCrimea.Allinall,itwas
theperiodofcommitmentsanddreamingforCrimeans.Atthattimeoccupationalauthoritiesdrew
brightprospectsforthefuture.
ThoughtwoyearsafterCrimeaoccupationitispossibletosayforsurethatnopromiseswerefulfilled.
StillKremlinsuccessfullycopeswiththeonlyonetaskimplementationoftheprojectofpowerful
multipurposemilitarybasebuildup.Today,alltheresourcesaredirectedtoachievethisgoal.Noone
stillreferstoCrimeapeacefuldevelopmentplans,thesocialcomponentfellintotheshade.Moreover,it
becomesclearthatCrimeamilitarizationeliminatesthepossibilityoftourismandresortbusiness
development.
TheRussianauthoritiesaimatdeployingpowerfulmilitaryalignmentof100120thousandofmilitary
menintotalatthepeninsula.Itisplannedtolocatemorethan40newregiment-orbrigade-sized
formationsandmilitaryunits.CurrentlythenumberofsoldiersinCrimeaisalreadyabout5060
thousand.Toholdthesituationandpreventpossibleprotestactions,Russianauthoritieshave
substantiallyincreasedthenumberofspecialservicestaff.InCrimeatheirnumberisthreetimesas
muchasinotherRussiaregions.Itseasytoassumethatmajorityofmilitarymenexpecttostayhere
afterretirement.
Thus,thelifeofcivilianssuffersseriouschanges.Militarizationplansregardingthepeninsulainvolve
implementationoftheCrimeaforRussiansonlyproject.Itisevidencedbyquitefrankstatementsof
occupationalauthoritiesrepresentatives.Thus,forexample,thespokesmanofCrimeanstatecouncil
VladimirKonstantinovhasexpresslystatedthatoverthefollowing10yearsCrimeawillremaina
migrationproject.TheRussianauthoritiesencourageRussiancivilservantsandformermilitarymento
movetoCrimea.AllthemanagementofenterprisesandorganizationsisalreadyreplacedbyRussian
specialists.Andthenumberofsuchmigrantsatthepeninsulaisabove100thousand.Allofthemare
followedbymembersoftheirfamilieswives,childrenandoftentheirparentsmovingtothepermanent
placeofresidence.Theygetjobsonaprioritybasisaswellasschoolandkindergartensfortheir
children.Indigenouspeopleappeartobedefeatedinrightsaswellasundesirableswerebyhookor
crookforcedoutofCrimea.TheywerereplacedbyRussians(asarule,fromthedepthofthecountry)
usedtoRussianrealities,whowillnotposeaproblemfortheauthoritiesinfuture.
Asitisknown,tomaintainthemilitarybaseoptimalservicemen/civiliansratioshouldbe1:4,i.e.,four
civiliansserveonemilitaryman.Thus,itiseasytocalculatethat480500thousandofciviliansare
requiredtoserve120thousandstrongmilitaryalignment.Thepartsofthemaremembersofmilitary
mensfamilies.Eveniftodoublethenumberofcivilians,itwillrequirenomorethan1millionofcivilians
toservethemilitarybaseonpeninsulasterritory.Alltheothersareofnoneed.
http://www.groundreport.com/crimea-russians-face-off-project/
Russiannationalist:AnnexingCrimea,Putin
openedthewayforthedisintegrationofRussia
TheleaderoftheRussiannationalistmovementRussiansDmitryDemushkinfindsahugemistakethe
annexationofCrimeabyRussia.
IthinkthatPutinmadeanepicmistakeandriskyundertaking.RevisingthebordersofEuropeisunlawful,
especiallyforRussia,fortheRussianFederationisthelargestandthemostunoccupiedstateintheworld.
FromBaikaltoKamchatkathereisnopeopleandnothingatall.Andrevisingtheworldandbordersbyright
ofthestrongisaTrojanhorse,whichcouldnotbetouched.Theprecedentofrevisingbordersis
dangerousespeciallyfortheRussianFederation,becausethenotionoftheRussianlandisveryrelative,
hesaidinaninterview.
Accordingtohim,suchaprecedentcouldleadtothelossoftheterritoriesofRussiaitself.Reasonably
discussingwhereandwhoselandhistoricallyis,theKurilIslandsmaybeJapanese,FarEastandSiberia
Chinese,KareliaisFinnishandKaliningradGerman,etc.Putinmadeaverydangerousprecedent,andit
isnotintheinterestsoftheRussiansfortomorrowtheChinesecanentertheirgreenmeninSiberiaand
holdareferendumthere.Itwasabigmistaketogiveupontheinternationallawsopublicly.Ibelievethat
bigeventsarewaitingforus.Alotofbloodwillbespilled.Wearestandingonthevergeofsomethingbig
andbloody,concludedDemushkin.
http://en.sobytiya.info/russian-nationalist-annexing-crimea-putin-opened-the-way-for-the-disintegration-of-russia.html
Senttime: 06/02/201602:10:52PM
To: RobertOtto<ottorc@state.gov>
Subject: TheSecretofPutinsSurvivalbyAndreiKolesnikov-ProjectSyndicate
TheSecretofPutinsSurvival
MOSCOWTwoyearsago,alongprocessofgrowingauthoritarianismandisolationismunderPresidentVladimirPutin
culminatedinRussiasannexationofCrimea.Butevenasmuchoftheinternationalcommunitycondemnedthemove,
Russiansseemedtowelcomeit.Indeed,thepeninsulasreturntoRussiancontrolhadaprofoundeffectonpublic
sentimentonethatseemstohavestrengthenedPutinsgriponpower,evenasRussiafacesdeepeningpoliticaland
economicchallenges.
InMarch2016,83%ofRussianssupportedtheannexationofCrimea,whileonly13%opposedit.Evenprogressives
includingsomewhoprotestedagainsttheregimeinMoscowsBolotnayaSquarein2011-2013havefoundinCrimeaa
reasontosupportPutin,albeitwithsomereservations.Indeed,Putinnowenjoysan80%approvalrating,reflectinghow
closelyheandCrimeaarelinkedinRussiansminds.
TheDonaldTrumpShow
CarlBildt,RichardN.Haass,StephenS.Roach,andotherProjectSyndicatecommentatorstake
stockofhowpopulistrebellionthroughouttheWestisjeopardizingtheinternationalorderand
furtherunderminingtheglobaleconomy.
Thereasonwhytheannexationhasattractedsuchwidesupportissimple.FormostRussians,Crimearemainspartofthe
empire,bothculturallyandgeographically.Tobesure,Russiadoesnotpossessthepowerandresourcestorecreatean
empire,evenwithintheconfinesoftheabstractRussianworld.ButbyfocusingonCrimea,Putinsregimewasableto
createasenseofrestoredhistoricaljusticeandreviveexpectationsofareturntogreatpowerstatus.
Ofcourse,noteveryoneinRussiasupportstheannexation.And,infact,opponentsofthemoveareintractable,describing
Crimeaasoccupiedterritory.Nonetheless,theycomprisejustasmallminorityandlackanyrealinfluence(theregimehas
seentothat).TheyareliterallysurroundedbypeoplewhounquestioninglysupporttheauthoritiesandespeciallyPutin.
Thatresponsemaybesurprising,giventhetangibleconsequencesoftheannexationinparticular,theeconomicimpact
ofWesternsanctions,theeffectsofwhichhavebeencompoundedbyplummetingoilpricessinceJune2014.The
emotionalelementcertainlyplaysarole.Butthisisnotsimplyamatterofmanipulationbypropaganda.
Infact,themainreasonthemajorityofRussianssupporttheannexationofCrimeaseemstobepreciselythat:themajority
ofRussianssupportit.Fortheaveragepost-SovietRussian,whoregainedCrimeafromtheircouch,remotecontrolin
hand,fallingintolinewiththemajorityisfarmoreappealingthanrockingtheboatsomuchsothatRussiansareoutright
refusingtothinkcriticallyaboutwhatishappening.Itistypicalcrowdpsychology.
Thisunflinchingsupporthascarriedovertothejust,defensive,andpreventivemilitaryoperationsthatCrimea
catalyzed,fromDonbastoSyria,andeventhetradewarwithTurkey.Despitetheobviousrisksassociatedwithsuch
moves,Russianshaveacceptedthenarrativethattheyarenecessarytopreservestability,nottomentionRussiasnewly
reacquiredstatusasagreatpower.
Asifthatwerenotcounter-intuitiveenough,RussiansalsoseemtobesupportingthePutinregimeseconomic
mismanagementpreciselybecausetheireconomicsituationissodire.TheaverageRussianhasbeenquicktorevertto
habitsassociatedwiththecultureofscarcityoftherecentpast.Theirattentionisfocusedonobtainingbasicnecessities
likefoodandclothingfewareinterestedinanalyzingthecausesoftheirdeclininglivingstandards.
Andwhocanblamethem?Afterall,thoseRussianswhodoconsiderthepoliticalcontextareimmediatelyconfrontedwith
grimreality:Theregimehasguttedallopposition,notleastbystokingfearofbeinglabeledanextremist.Morethanone
vocalcriticoftheregimehasmetanuntimelyend.
Thatiswhyevendemonstrationsopposingsomegovernmentpolicyoroutcomearenotsomuchprotestsagainstas
appealstotheregime.Withoutfundamentalchangeinthepoliticalsystem,itisunlikelythatsuchdemonstrations,evenif
theybecomemorefrequent,willbecomeovertlyoppositional.And,withoutoppositionalprotest,systemicchangeseems
unlikely.
Intheabsenceofopenpoliticalcompetition,Putinhasbuiltasystemofchecksandbalanceswithintheelite.Agroupof
loyalistliberalsholdkeyfinancialandeconomicposts,balancingthehawksinthemilitaryandspecialservices,including
structuresliketheSecurityCouncil,whichfrequentlyservesasanincubatorforelegantconspiracytheoriesaboutWestern
plots.Ofcourse,allmembersoftheelitemustcontinuouslydemonstratetheirloyaltytoPutin.
ThissystemkeepsRussiaselitesfrompushingforchange(unlikeinthepast,whenthoseelitesdidattempttoinitiate
reforms),asitprecludesthepossibilityofanti-Putinintrigue.Andtheregimedoesseemrelativelystable,atleastfornow.
Indeed,ithasonlygainedstrengthsince2012,andnow,withpost-Crimeapopularsupporthavingboughtitsometime,
theregimeistryingtoadapttotheprotractedeconomic,political,andsocialmalaiseRussiaisfacing.
Butthattimeis,ofcourse,limited.Thatiswhy,inadvanceofthe SupportProjectSyndicatesmission
Septemberparliamentaryelections,theregimeisincreasingly ProjectSyndicateneedsyourhelptoprovidereaders
directingcitizensattentiontowardinternalthreatsthatis,political everywhereequalaccesstotheideasanddebatesshapingtheir
lives.
opponentsandsupposedtraitors.Oneprominentexampleis Learnmore
formerYukosOilCompanyChairmanMikhailKhodorkovsky,
whoseexpressionsofdoubtaboutPutinsleadershiplandedhiminjailand,later,exile.
In1970,theSovietdissidentAndreiAmalrikasked,inapropheticessay,WilltheSovietUnionSurviveUntil1984?We
mustnowaskhowlongPutinsregimewillsurvive.Itseemslikelythatitwilllastuntilthenextpresidentialelection,in
2018.Whetheritwillendurethroughthesubsequentelection,in2024,isaquestionthatKremlinologistsaquickly
recoveringspecieswillsoonbedebating.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 06/02/201609:46:41AM
FW:NewLEVADACENTERPOLL:"Russia'stopenemies:US,Ukraine,TuekyandPoland:RussiansalsoincludedLithuaniaandLatviaontheir
Subject:
listoftopfoes,"politico.eu,6/2
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:NewLEVADACENTERPOLL:"Russia'stopenemies:US,Ukraine,TuekyandPoland:RussiansalsoincludedLithuaniaand
Latviaontheirlistoftopfoes,"politico.eu,6/2
72%ofRussianswerehostiletowardtheUS,48%towardUkraine,29%towardTurkey,24%toward
Poland,23%towardLatvia,23%towardLithuania.
And:Wellwashawayalltheblack!AnotherRACISTRussianmarketingploytargetsOBAMA,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27771002.html
And:Packedwithdetails:HowKIEVandMOSCOWagreedtoignoreeachother,
themoscotimes.com,6/1
And:TherealworthofPENSIONSinRussiahasdeclinedby4.3%:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/06/02/1520080.html
And:Russias[Presidential]HumanRightsCouncilcancelsmeetingwithKADYROV,
themoscowtimes.com,6/2
And:SadRussiahasovertakentheUSinlevelsofOBESITY:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/style/2016/06/02/1520016.html
And:GordonCHANG,MakeAmericameekagainwhydictatorsdigTRUMP,thedailaybeast.com,
6/2
And:MichaelWEISS,PierreVaux,HowaU.S.RussianspacerocketdealfundsPUTINCRONIES,
thedailybeast.com,5/31
And:DonaldTRUMPisbackedbyanultranationalistBIKERgang,justlikeVladimirPUTIN,
washingtonpsot.com,6/1
And:Angerbuilds:AKADYROVBRIDGEinplaceofNEMTSOV,
http://www.svoboda.mobi/a/27768217.html
VladimirMILOV,The[discussed]PRIVITIZATIONofROSNEFT:Whatandwhy,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/milov/1775482echo/

Senttime: 06/03/201610:24:54AM
FW:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]
Subject: Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PB
SPD]PutinU...
Subject:Fwd:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JD
DD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinU...
Subject:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOF
READING][JDDD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[OD
DD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplans
paramilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStories
No.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]Fwd:"Chafingat
SANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounter
Russia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
And:18-pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsof
PUTIN,reuters.com,6/35-pagearticle
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,has
beenretired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408-echo.html
And:Whatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanti-corruptionunitsoftheFSBand
MVD?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfrom
Russia,telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp/lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Subject:Ukraine:USOSCE,USEKyiv,NYT(2),Economist,USNews,Politico[ED:THEOSCEMaterialIs
Invaluable][TheEconomistPieceonKharkivisaBitof"StinkyWinky"..possiblyreflectinga'Londongrad'
perspective]
Especiallyimportanttoread,process,disseminate,utilizeintherun-uptotheEUdecisiononRussiasanctions.And
DanBaersRightofReply(item2)totheRussianambassadorisoneforthebooks:
USMissiontotheOSCE
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
June2,2016
TheUnitedStatesisdeeplyconcernedaboutthedeterioratingsituationintheconflictzoneineasternUkraine.CombinedRussian-
separatistforceshavesteppeduptheviolence,firedbannedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,andhavecontinuedtoobstructthe
workoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission,includingthreateningmonitors,shootingdownanSMMUAV,anddisablingSMM
surveillancecameras.Thesituationisparticularlytroublingbecausejustoneweekago,Ukraineproposedadetailed
disengagementplan,which,haditbeenimplemented,wouldhavecontributedtoasignificantde-escalationoftheconflict.Instead,
Russiarefusedtoengageinnegotiationsonde-escalationinaMay25meetingoftheJointCenterforCoordinationandControl,
andcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdramaticallyescalatedthefighting,causingUkrainetosufferitsworstcasualtiessince
August2015.Infact,thefightinghasgrowndeadliereverymonththisyear:oneUkrainiansoldierwaskilledinactioninJanuary,
sixinFebruary,twelveinMarch,fifteeninApril,andtwenty-seveninMay.Thissteadyescalationinviolencemustbereversed.
CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavesimultaneouslyincreasedattackswhilerestrictingtheSMMfromfulfillingitsmandate.
OnMay27,theSMMscamerainShyrokynerecordedmachinegunfirefromseparatistareasbeforeUkrainianforcesreturned
fire.AlsoonMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcescarriedoutanincursionacrossthecontactlineintogovernment-
controlledAvdiivka,leavingthreecasualtiesingovernment-controlledterritoryasproofofthisaggressiveact.Residentsof
DonetskcitytoldtheSMMthatDPRmembersfiredfromrooftopsbeforewithdrawing,andhadevenaskedtofiremortars
fromtheroofofahouse.SuchtacticsputciviliansindangerbyprovokingUkrainianforcestoreturnfire.Asaresultofsuch
actions,theSMMreportedanincreaseintheshellingofcivilianareasbybothsidesintheconflict.Thenumberofexplosionsin
Donetskaloneincreasedbyalmost75percentoverthepastweekascombinedRussian-separatistforcesresumedfiring
proscribed,destructive152mmartillery,reversingthedeclineinheavyweaponsuseinadeliberateescalation.
Thesurgeinceasefireviolationscorrelates,onceagain,withactsofviolence,intimidationanddenialofaccessagainsttheSMM.
TheSMMmusthavefull,safe,andunfetteredaccessthroughouttheentireconflictarea.WecondemntheincidentonMay27in
whichaseparatistfighterfiredwarningshotsintheairbeforetakingaimwithhisassaultrifleataSMMvehicletoforceaSMM
patroltoturnaround.Wealsocondemnanotherincident,onMay28,inwhichaSMMfootpatrolatthecontactlinecameunder
fire,apparentlyfromforcesingovernment-controlledterritory.WeregretthattheJointCenterforCoordinationandControlhas
failedtoinvestigateanysuchincidents.
Colleagues,inthePermanentCouncil,weheartheRussianFederationcallfor24/7monitoringofhotspots,buttheactionsofthe
combinedRussian-separatistforcesstandinstarkcontrasttothewordsspokenhere.Theseforcesappeartobepreparingthe
battlefieldforfurtheractionwhiletryingtopreventtheSMMfromobservingthesituationandreportingonittotheinternational
community.AsourUkrainiancolleaguesharedwithusafewmomentsago:theSMMreportedintodaysreportanunusualbuild-
upandamassingofheavyweaponsandpersonnelcarriersinDonetskandLuhanskcities,including24tanksinDonetskcityalone.
TheSMMcamerathatcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisablednearDonetskonMay20remainsinoperabledueto
separatistinterference.OnMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshotdowntheSMMslong-rangeUAVjustafterit
recordedaStrela-10surface-to-airmissileinDPR-controlledterritory.
TheStrela-10surface-to-airmissilethattheSMMsUAVrecorded,thekindofweaponunavailabletoseparatistswithoutRussian
support,isevenmoreevidenceofdirectRussianinvolvementintheconflict.Similarly,theOrlan-10UAVphotographedflyingover
UkrainianterritorytheweekbeforewouldnotbeavailabletoseparatistforceswithoutRussianhelp.Russiansupplies,equipment,
andpersonnelcontinuetoflowfromRussiaintoUkraine.AttheIzavarynecrossing,alongthepartofUkrainesinternational
borderwithRussiathatUkrainedoesnotcontrol,theSMMobservedalargenumberofpersonnelwhowerewellequipped,
armedandworeadistinctivegreenuniformwithoutinsignia.
TheseindividualsrefusedtospeaktotheSMM.WenotetheSMMstillhasnotreceivedfromtheseparatiststhesecurity
assurancesneededtoallowtheSMMtoopennewforwardpatrolbasesneartheinternationalborderandbeabletoeffectively
monitortheflowoffighters,weaponsandequipmentintoUkraine.
Colleagues,thewayforwardisclear:Stoppingtheviolencemustbethefirstprioritysowecanmakefurtherprogresson
implementingthepoliticalaspectsoftheMinskagreements.TheremustbeimmediateworkondisengagementintheTrilateral
ContactGroupanditssecurityworkinggroupandthepoliticalwilltocarryoutfullyanynewagreements.Russiamustcompel
theseparatistsitbackstoendtheviolenceonthecontactline,whichitdemonstratedtheabilitytodowhentheSeptember1,
2015,ceasefirewentintoeffect.
Asfightingworsens,itisthepeopleofUkrainewhobearthehighestcost.Wenotetherisingnumberofciviliancasualtiesfrom
landminesandunexplodedordnance.Theproblemseemsespeciallyacuteinseparatist-heldareas,wheretheSMMreported
tragicincidentsinwhichchildrenwereinjuredwhileplayingcatchwithananti-tankroundandbysteppingonalandmine.In
contraventionofacommitmentmadetoopentheciviliancrossingpointatZolote,Russia-backedseparatistshaveinsteadplaced
sixnewanti-tankminesthere.
TheexchangeandreleaseofdetaineesonthebasisoftheallforallprincipleintheMinskPackageofMeasuresisamuch-
neededconfidencebuildingmeasure.ItisalsoimperativethattheRussianFederationputanendtoimprisoningUkrainiancitizens
ontrumpedup,politically-motivatedcharges.ThereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkodoesnotrelievetheRussianFederationofits
responsibilitytofreeStanislavKlikh,MykolaKarpyuk,AkhtemCiygoz,OlegSentsov,AleksanderKolchenko,YuriySoloshenko,
OlexandrKostenkoandallotherUkrainiancitizensithaswrongfullyimprisoned.
RussiamustalsoputanendtoitsmistreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleandallotherswhorefusetorecognizeRussias
attemptedannexationofCrimea.TheoccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivists,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,anddozensofhomes,andinitiatedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatarsontrumpedupcharges.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatErwinIbrahimov,aboard
memberoftheCoordinationCounciloftheWorldCongressofCrimeanTatars,hasgonemissinginCrimea.Weremindthe
RussianFederationthateconomicsanctionsagainstitwillcontinueuntilitendsitsoccupation.
SanctionsimposedfortheRussianFederationsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplements
itscommitmentsintheMinskagreements,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccess
fortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbytheconflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredby
theOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturnto
Ukraineoffullcontroloveritsinternationalborder.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
RightofReplytoRussiaonitsOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/right-reply-russia-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc/
June2,2016
IjustwantedtorespondtoonepartofthedistinguishedRussiancolleaguesstatementwherehesaidthatseveralcolleagues
aroundthistabledontcareaboutanythinghappeninginUkraineotherthanRussiasfuelingoftheongoingconflict.
Justtoremind,thetopicunderwhichtheUnitedStatesspeaksisTheongoingviolationsofinternationallawanddefianceof
OSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsbytheRussianFederationinUkraine,andsowearespeakingexclusivelyonthattopicunder
thisitem.ButwehavespokenbothinthisforumandfromthepodiuminWashingtonaboutothereventsinUkraineincludingthe
hackofjournalistsinformation,asIreportedafewweeksago,whichwasdiscussedfromthepodiumbyourStateDepartment
spokesperson.AndgiventhatthedistinguishedRussianambassadorhasraisedthisagaintoday,andourallegednon-concernfor
otherthingshappeningUkraine,IdliketotakethisopportunitytocongratulatetheVerkhovnaRadatodayforpassingnotonlythe
constitutionalprovisionsforjudicialreform,butalsotheimplementinglegislation.Obviouslythisisonehuge,positive,forwardstep,
andithastobefollowedupbymoreforwardsteps,notleasttheimplementationoftheactuallegislationandthereform,butIthink
thisisareallyimportantstepforwardinreformingUkrainesjudiciaryindeliveringonthepromiseoftheRevolutionofDignity,and
whatpeoplewereontheMaidandemanding:agovernmentthatrespectsthehumanrightsofitspeople,andismovingtowardsa
trulyindependentjudiciary.
AndIlookforwardtothedaythatsuchreformsaretakeninRussiaaswell.
USEmbassyKyiv
U.S.SignsLoanGuaranteeAgreementForUkraine
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Friday,June3,2016
TheUnitedStatesandUkrainesignedtodaya$1billionloanguaranteeagreement,thethird$1billionloanguaranteeprovidedby
theU.S.toUkrainesinceMay2014.ThisguaranteereinforcestheUnitedStatesstrongcommitmenttothepeopleofUkraineby
strengtheningtheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoinstitutereformsthatreducecorruption,improvethebusinessclimate,
stabilizetheeconomy,andmakethegovernmentmoreresponsivetothepeople.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaid."TheguaranteesendsastrongsignaloftheUnitedStatescontinuedsupportfor
UkraineasitpursuesreformsthatfulfilltheUkrainianpeople'saspirationsforaprosperousanddemocraticfuture."
TheU.S.loanguaranteeispartofacomprehensiveinternationalfinancialpackage.Whenissued,theloanguaranteewillprovide
theGovernmentofUkrainewithaccesstoaffordablefinancingfrominternationalcapitalmarkets,enablingittoprovidecritical
servicesandprotectthemostvulnerableUkrainiansfromtheimpactofnecessaryeconomicadjustmentsasitimplementskey
reforms.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,UkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,UkrainianMinisterofFinanceOleksandr
Danylyuk,AmbassadorPyatt,andActingMissionDirectorfortheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopmentJoelSandefur
participatedinthesigningceremonyinKyiv,Ukraine.
Alsoread:
StatementbyTreasurySecretaryJacobJ.LewonUkraineLoanGuaranteeAgreement,06.03.2016
RemarksbyAmbassadorPyattatSigningCeremonyforLoanGuaranteeforUkraine,06.03.2016(especiallynotelast
para)
TheNewYorktimes
U.S.SignsThird$1BillionLoanGuaranteeAgreementforUkraine
ByREUTERSJUNE3,2016,5:45A.M.E.D.T.
KIEVTheUnitedStatesandUkrainesigneda$1billionloanguaranteeagreementonFriday,thethirdsuchagreement
providedbyWashingtontoKievsinceMay2014.
WashingtonhadpromisedtheaidlastNovemberbutmadeitcontingentonKievcontinuingtopushreforms,whichhadbeen
derailedbymonthsofpoliticalturmoil.
ThesigningcomesadayaftertheUkrainianparliamentpassedlegislationaimedattacklingentrenchedcorruptioninthejudicial
system.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaidinastatement.
UkraineisstillinnegotiationswiththeInternationalMonetaryFundforthethirdtrancheofabailoutdealworth$1.7billion.
(ReportingbyMatthiasWilliamsEditingbyGarethJones)
TheNewYorkTimes
UkrainianPresidentCondemnsLeakofJournalistData
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE3,2016,9:54A.M.E.D.T.
KIEV,UkraineUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohascondemnedtheleakofthenamesandcontactinformationfor
thousandsofjournalistswhohavereportedfromrebel-controlledeasternUkraine.
TheMaypublicationbyhackersfromagroupcalledMyrotvoretshasraisedconcernsaboutthesafetyofthejournalists,manyof
themfrominternationalmediaorganizations.
SomeUkrainianofficials,includingtheinteriorminister,havewelcomedthepublicationandhaveaccusedthejournalistsof
accessorytoterrorism.
PoroshenkoonFridaytoldreportersthatthepublicationwasa"bigmistake"andcalledforaprobeintotheleak.Poroshenko,
however,calledonjournalistsnottowrite"negativearticles"aboutUkraineandsaidsomeRussianreportersfromthelistsmade
"criminalthings."
AmbassadorstoUkrainefromtheGroupofSevencountriesonThursdayexpressedconcernaboutthepublication.
TheEconomist
Thecitybeta-testingUkrainesrevolution
InRussian-speakingKharkiv,theITindustryisoneofthefewthingsthatisthriving
May27th2016|Europe
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699545-russian-speaking-kharkiv-it-industry-one-few-things-thriving-city
MYKOLARIDNIYisayoungvideoartistinKharkiv,thesecond-largestcityinUkraine,justfortykilometresfromtheRussian
border.Hislatestvideo,featuringpeacefulstreetscenessettoasoundtrackofriots,recallstheeventsoftwoyearsago,whenthe
citynearlyfelltotheRussian-backedseparatistswhonowcontrolothercitiesinthesouth-east,DonetskandLuhansk.Today,
KharkivremainsalitmustestforwhetherUkrainecansatisfyitsRussian-speakingpeopleandturnitselfintoafunctionalcountry.
OpinionsdifferonhowcloseKharkivcametobecomeanotherbreakawaypeoplesrepublic.Mostresidentsliketothinkthe
violencewasimposedfromoutside,bywhoeverpaidforthethugswhoarrivedinbusesfromovertheRussianbordertoattack
supportersofthepro-EuropeanMaidan.Others,likeMrRydniy,pointoutthatplentyoflocalsbackedRussiatoo.Peopleknow
thattheirneighboursweresupportingtheRussianside,hesays.
Kharkivhasalwaysbeenabitgranderthanitscoal-dustedneighbours.Inthelate1800s,localcoalmagnatesbuiltflamboyant
mansionshere.UndertheSovietUnionthecitybecameacentreforadvancedengineering.Aproudlittlemuseumwithinthe
KharkivAviationInstituteshowsphotographsoftheKhAI-1,thefirstEuropeanpassengerplanewithretractablelandinggear,and
ofValentinaGrizodubeva,apioneeraviatrixwhobrokeworldrecordsinthe1930s,andledanall-womenRedAirForce
squadronduringthewar.
Today,thoughtheInstituteswell-keptcampusbustleswithstudents(aquarterofthemfromoverseas),theattachedaircraft
factorystandssilent.Productionhaltedseveralyearsago.ThelossoftheRussianmarkethasdealtaneardeath-blowtostate-
ownedmonolithsthatwereinneedofmodernisationanyway.TheKharkivTractorPlanthasvirtuallyceasedproduction
Turboatom,amakerofturbinesfornuclearpowerstations,haslostthebulkofitssales,ashasMalyshev,atankmanufacturer.Itis
hardtoseewherenewinvestmentmightcomefrom.
ForeignersarefrightenedoffbyKharkivsproximitytothefrontline,andtheUkrainiannewrichprefertomakequickerbucksin
propertyorcommodities.
Fortheyoungengineersstillpouringoutofthecitysinstitutes,thebignewindustryisinformationtechnology.Morethan200IT
firmsemploysome14,000softwaredevelopers,andboastarosterofbig-nameAmericanandEuropeanclients.Aco-working
spaceforstart-upsinthedilapidatedtowncentreticksalltheboxes:exposedbrickwork,boardgames,amanwithpinkhair
strummingaukulele.PavelNaumenko,formerdirectoroftheaviationplantwhonowproduceselectronicsfordrones,sees
Kharkivasatechnologicalmagnetcityforthewholecountry,promisingUkraineabrightfuture.

Themainroadblockisbadgovernment,andthemayor,GennadyKernes,isaprimeexample.Convictedoffraudintheearly
1990s,MrKernesnowcommandsamurkyfortuneintelevision,telecomsandrealestate.Heenjoysputtingphotosofhimself
cuddlingpuppiesandblondesonsocialmedia,andhehaslocalpoliticssewnup.Thanksinparttosplashyspendingaglittering
newOrthodoxcathedralandalavishchildrensamusementparkhewon66%ofthevoteatlastOctoberslocalelections.His
rivals,oppositionactivistDmitriDrobotsays,weretechnicalcandidatesputuptodividethevote,apartfromonegenuinebut
little-knownopponentwhotookjust12%.
Therealpoliticstakesplacebehindthescenes,andbecomesvisibleonlywhenitleadstoviolence.Duringthecrisistwoyearsago
MrKernesinitiallybackedtheRussiansbeforeswitchingsides.Soonafter,hewasshotwhilejogging.Henowusesawheelchair.
InFebruaryofthisyearoneofhisoldestfriends,reputedlyhismoneymanager,wasshotdeadinalocalcemetery.
Asthroughoutthecountry,reforminitiativesarehamperedbycorruption.StaffattheKharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup,an
NGOthatprovideslegalaid,saysthatatleasthalfofalljudgesshouldbereplaced,andevenmoreprosecutors.Thedirectorofa
German-fundedprogrammeforrefugees(thereare111,000inthecity)saysherelderlyclientsarepreyeduponbybribe-taking
doctors,andthereislittleshecando:ifsheexposescorruption,maybeourclientwontgettreatmentinthefuture.AWestern-
fundedanti-corruptionwatchdogsaysitisplayingaconstantgameofcatch-up:Weexposeonescheme,andtheythinkupanew,
moreelaborateone.
NobodythinksaKharkivpeoplesrepublicisintheoffing.TheseparatistswarhasdestroyedtheeconomiesofDonetskand
LuganskasMrDrobotsays,Peopleknowtheresnofuturethere.Ontheotherhand,Kharkivhasneverbeenasidealisticas
KievabouttheboldpromisesoftheMaidanrevolution.Itnowseesitsscepticismvindicated.Disillusioned,fullofpotentialbut
heldbackbybadleaders,KharkivisinmanywaysUkraineinminiature.In2014,cheeringcrowdsusedacranetopulldownits
giantcentralLeninstatue,leavingonlyhisbroken-offfeet.Kievsnewrevolutionarieswillneedtodobetteriftheywanttoescape
thesamesortofcontempt.
U.S.NewsandWorldReport
Russia'sGreatPowerChoice
ByWilliamCourtneyandDonaldJensen
June1,2016
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-01/russias-occupation-of-eastern-ukraine-is-hurting-its-world-power-status
Moscowseeksacoercivesphereofinfluenceoverneighborsandgreatpowerstatusbeyond,butthesegoalsareincompatible.
OnlybypullingoutofeasternUkraineandreformingitseconomycanRussiagainbroaderacceptanceandreachitspotentialasa
greatpower.Inasimilarvein,lastweekatararemeetingofPresidentVladimirPutinwithhiseconomiccouncil,formerFinance
MinisterAlexeiKudrin,Russianmediareportssay,urgedaneasingofgeopoliticaltensionstohelptheeconomy.
TheKremlinhasfacedasimilarchoicebefore.Inthe1980s,theUSSRwasboggeddowninAfghanistanandisolated.China,Iran
andAmerica,amongothers,boycottedthe1980summerOlympicsinMoscow.TheSovieteconomy,burdenedbywasteandlow
oilprices,wasweakened.Technologylagged.Inthelate1980s,theKremlinfinallysoughtrelief.Sothathecouldfocusonfixing
theSovietsystem,PresidentMikhailGorbacheveasedforeignpressuresbylettinggoofWarsawPactalliesandconcludingarms
controlaccordswiththeWest.
Moscownowfaceslessbutstillsignificantpressure.TheRussian-backedarmedrebellioninDonbashasledtoWesternsanctions
neverbeforeimagined.ManysourcesofinternationalfinancingtoRussia'scapital-starvedeconomyareclosed.Thebuyingpower
offamilies,sappedbyinflationandrubledepreciation,isfalling.Inadditiontosanctions,lowoilpricesandstructuralinefficiencies
arebleedingtheeconomy.Dropsinconstructionandinvestmentdarkenthefuture.Creationofa400,000-strongnationalguard,
reportingdirectlytoPutin,hintsatconcernaboutpopularunrest.
ThequickestwayforRussiatorelievesomeoftheaccumulatingstrainistowithdrawitsforcesfromDonbasandendsupportfor
itsproxies,theso-calledseparatists.UkrainewouldregaincontrolofitsborderwithRussia,withmonitoringfromtheOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope.AninternationalefforttorebuildeasternUkrainecouldfollow,includingcontributions
fromRussiaandtheWest.AlthoughatpresentaRussianwithdrawalseemsimprobable,itwouldendthemostonerousWestern
sanctionsandbrighteneconomicprospects.
TheFebruary2015MinskaccordsestablishedapartialceasefireinDonbasandprovidedtermstofacilitateapoliticalsettlement.
Fightinghasdeclinedfromitspeak,butMoscowstillwagesalow-levelproxywar.Contrarytotheaccords,Russiarefusesto
allowOSCEmonitorstocontroltheborder.Donbaslackssecurityforfreeandfairelections,andUkraine'sgovernmentmaybe
tooweaktoconductthem.
Economicreformcanalsoeasepressure.Asinthe1980s,declininglivingstandardsaredispiriting.Disgruntlementoverdelayed
anderodingpayisrising.Yetreformstoboostproductivityandcreatenewsourcesofeconomicgrowthareopposedby
entrenchedandstate-connectedinterests,andbymanyRussians.IfMoscowdelaysreform,itwillloseinternationalheft.Russiais
barelyaneconomicgreatpowerlastyearitsGDPwas10thinsizeamongG-20countries.
Despiteitschallenges,Russiaplayssomegreatpowerroles.True,asPresidentBarackObamahaspointedout,Russiadoesnot
"settheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant"inG-20meetings.Nonetheless,Moscow'scooperationintheP5+1
formatthefivepermanentmembersoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilandGermanyhelpedachievethehistoricnucleardealwith
Iran.RussiaandAmericateameduptodestroySyrianchemicalweapons.Russiamayhaveanothergreatpoweropportunityifit
helpstoresolvetheSyriacrisis.
AslongasitoccupiesDonbas,however,Russiacanhopeonlyforlimitedgains.Againthe1980sareillustrative.Evenasthe
USSRandtheWestagreedinGenevatoslashnuclearweaponry,WashingtonwasarmingmujahedeenfightersinAfghanistan.
Moscowlackedwideinternationalsupportuntilitwithdrewfromthere,beganmovingtroopsoutofEasternEuropeandended
communistruleathome.
Agreatpowerhasaportfolioofinterestsandsometimeshastoabandonanunproductiveventure.ItwaspainfulfortheUSSRto
cedeAfghanistanin1989,asitwasforAmericatoleaveVietnamin1975andIraqin2011.Thesedecade-longinvestments
yieldedpoorreturnsandlostpopularsupport.
AnotherriskforRussiaisthatifitdelaysinexitingDonbas,Westernattitudesmayharden.Thismightalreadybehappening.In
February,WashingtonwarnedU.S.investmentbanksnottohelpunderwriteMoscow'sfirstinternationalsovereignbondoffering
sincetheseizureofCrimea.DayslaterBrusselscautionedEuropeaninvestmentbanks.Moscowabandoneditsplan.TheWest
wasworriedthatMoscowwoulddivertsomebondsaleproceedstosanctionedentities.MostWesternbanksinRussiaare
reducingoperationsorleaving.LargeChineseandotherinternationalbanksarealsowary.Theyfearcompromisingtheirlarger
interestsintheWest,orinfringingsanctionsoranti-money-launderinglaws.
MountingfrustrationisalsoreflectedinanewbillbeforetheU.S.Congress.Itwoulddenythepresidenttheauthoritytolift
Donbas-relatedsanctionsunlessthepresident"certified"thatUkrainehadregainedcontroloverCrimea,anunlikelyprospect.

IfRussiadoesdecidetocutitslossesandpulloutofDonbas,arrangementsmaynotbehardtofindonsuchissuesasrefugees,
amnestyformostfightersandaid.SomeinDonbasmightwanttosettlescores,butethnicUkrainiansandRussianstherehavelong
livedtogether.Internationalpeacekeepers,policeandmonitorscouldcontainrisks.
IfRussianaggressioninDonbaspersists,however,workingtogetherconstructivelywillbemoredifficult.AndtheWestwillneither
acceptMoscow'sannexationofCrimeanoroverlookpersecutionofitsTatarminority.
WilliamCourtneyisanadjunctseniorfellowattheRANDCorporationandwasU.S.ambassadortoKazakhstanand
Georgia.DonaldJensenisaseniorfellowattheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsintheSchoolofAdvanced
InternationalStudiesatTheJohnsHopkinsUniversity
Andforadifferentperspectivefromwhatmanyofushavebeenhearingandreading:
Politico
UkrainianinnocentcaughtinPanamaPapersweb
For20years,PetroPoroshenkowasatax-compliantbusinessman.NowUkrainespresidentisunderfireforgraft.
ByAdrianKaratnyckyandAlanRiley
6/3/16,5:30AMCET
Read:http://www.politico.eu/article/panama-papers-defending-ukraine-president-petro-poroshenko-corruption-tax-finance-
evasion/
Subject:PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds|FoundationforDefenseof
Democracies
Idon'tthinkRussia'sgoalistore-estalishtheparitythatemergedafterWWII.Rather,it'stoturnthetablesandestablishRussia
asthesoleworldpowerabletodictatetermsoflifeandexistencetoall.TheonlypotentialchallengewouldbeChina,withwhom
Russiaispresentlyifnotallied,thenatleastcollaboratingonanullaostabasis.Inthefuture,whoknows?MaybePutinwilloffer
theChinesestatusasHonoraryRusskijMirists,muchasHitlerofferJapanstatusasHonoraryArians.ForRussiait'sonlya
questionofwhichoneofthemwilldominatetheWestitbeingunderstoodthatthesunhassetontheWest(US/EU)andtheWest
needstogetusedtoitsnewstatusassecondrategeopoliticalpowers.
study/
Subject:Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia-BBCNews
It'sanimportantstart.EveryoneinPolandshouldhavemilitarytrainingaswellasbepreparedtodealwithtacticalnuclearattacks
byRussia.KaliningradneedstobereturnedtoEurope.PolandandUkraineshouldhaveaworkablemilitaryalliance.
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#863[ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com",31MORE
Friday,June3,2016
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34
PaulGoble
Staunton,June3--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussianFederationoften
appearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcantbediscussedin
detailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiapresentsaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheendof
eachweek.Thisisthe34thsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,onceagain,onecouldhaveput
outsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.JustHowManyPutinsareThere?ThedifferencesinVladimirPutinsappearanceatvariouspublicfunctionsisso
greatthatmanysuspectthatage,exerciseandBotoxcannotexplainthevariation.Oneanalysthastriedtoestimatejust
howmanydoublestheRussianpresidentmayhave.Whatisclearisthateventheoriginalisonetoomany(forum-
msk.org/material/politic/11849107.html).

2.AnotherLetThemEatCakeMoment.AfterDmitryMedvedevsremarkthatthereisnomoneybuthaveanice
day,itdidnotseemlikelythatanyRussianofficialwouldapproachthelevelofMarieAntoinettesinfamouscomment.But
onehas.FacedwiththefactthatRussiansarebeingforcedtocutbackonfood,oneofficialhasobservedthatitisa
Russiancustomtoeatpoorly(slon.ru/posts/68733).
3.MoscowWantsPollsterstoStopFocusingonPovertybutGovernmentStatisticsTelltheTale.TheRussian
governmentwantspollsterstostopaskingaboutpovertybecausetheKremlinisinsistingthatlifeisgettingbetterandmore
joyous(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-01/1_vciom.html).Buttheregimesownstatisticsshowhowwidespreadpovertyisin
Russia:oneinfourlivesinhousingwithsewerconnectionsandoneinthreelivesinhousingwithoutconnectiontonatural
gaslines(gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/housing/#).Andthisweekbroughtnewand
damningindicationsofhowthingsaregettingworse:Forthefirsttimeever,Russianspurchasedfewermedicinesinthefirst
quarterofthisyear,evenasreportsspreadabouthospitalsrunningoutofcriticalvaccines
(vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2016/06/01/643167-prodazhi-lekarstvandsobkorr.ru/news/574D492917C6A.html).
4.UralsPoliceTraintoDisperseWorkerProtests.IfinMoscow,thepoliceappearmostconcernedabout
demonstrationsbymiddleclassgroups,intheUrals,thepolicearenowtrainingspecificallytocounteranyworkingclass
revolts(politsovet.ru/51980-policiya-uchitsya-razgonyat-protesty-uralskih-rabochih.html).Atthesametime,theKremlinis
seekingtomakesureofitsgenerals:theyandtheirwivesarebeingpaidmoreandarericherthaneverbefore,accordingto
anRBCstudy(rbc.ru/photoreport/26/05/2016/5745e00b9a79472b77806b0f).
5.ChelyabinskPoliceProposeBurningHarmfulBooksandThoseWhoReadThem.PoliceinChelyabinskhave
calledforburningallharmfulbooksandthosewhoreadthem(ura.ru/news/1052251365),ataskthatmayposea
challengegiventhatRussians,shortofcash,areshiftingfromrealbookstoonlineversions(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-
01/4_income.html).
6.WestsInformationWarStrongerNowthanDuringColdWar,MoscowHistorianSays.ARussianhistoriansays
thattheWestsinformationcampaignagainstRussiaisnowstrongerthanitwasduringtheColdWar,forcingMoscowin
hiswordstocomeupwithwaysofcounteringit(izvestia.ru/news/615828).HisremarkscomeasWashingtonended
RadioLibertysshortwavebroadcastingtoRussia(svoboda.org/content/article/27769319.html).
7.OneWrongPostCanScrewUpYourWholeLife,RussianOfficialSays.ThereasonthatMoscowappearstobe
huntingdownthosewhopostarticlesandpicturesorlikesthattheKremlindoesntlikeisthatgivingpeopleacriminal
recordmeansthatyourentirelifewillbescrewedup(graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.251741.html).Givenhowmany
arebeingroundedupbythiscampaign,Moscowmaybecreatingitsownnemesis
(bigstory.ap.stfi.re/article/0274242811894097a9d79f789002aab0/dozens-russia-imprisoned-social-media-likes-reposts?
nc=1464707919310&sf=xdlwvew).
8.RussiaGetsItsOwnRenamingControversies.DecisionsbyofficialstonameabridgeinSt.Petersburgafter
AkhmetKadyrov,aneighborhoodinIrkutskafterRamzannotAkhmet,andastreetinYekaterinburgwherethelasttsar
andhisfamilyweremurderedTsaristhavecreatedaseriousproblemwithrenaminginRussiaandsparkedwidespread
debateoverwhatitmeansandwhethertheRussianauthoritiesplantorenametheNevatheTerek,ariverintheNorth
Caucasus(politsovet.ru/51972-v-ekaterinburge-poyavilas-carskaya-
ulica.html,rufabula.com/news/2016/05/31/kadyriya,rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/05/30/1518905.html,
andecho.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1773276-echo/).
9.RISIBlamesUSforSpreadofHIV/AIDSinRussia,SaysCondomsDontWorkAgainstIt.TheRussianInstitute
forStrategicStudieswhichisattachedtotheofficeoftheRussianpresidentandfrequentlygivesVladimirPutinadvicesays
theUSisresponsibleforthespreadofHIV/AIDSinRussiaandthatcondomsdonotprovideprotectionagainstitsspread
(kommersant.ru/doc/3000818andkasparov.ru/material.php?id=574E7E95071A1).
10.MoscowCallsforaRussianInternetbutRussiansNowUseGoogleMorethanYandex.Russianofficialswantto
createaRussianversionofalmosteverythingincludingtheInternetaspartoftheKremlinsimportsubstitutioneffort,but
evenastheyaremakingsuchdemands,RussiansareincreasinglyusingWesternsearchenginesratherthanRussianones.
InApril,forthefirsttime,RussiansusedGooglemorethanYandexwhentheywentonline
(slon.ru/posts/68761andnovayagazeta.ru/economy/73262.html).
11.RussiaMustMakePlanstoDestroyMerchantShippingofNATOCountries,AnalystSays.Aleksandr
Verkhoturov,aRussiananalystwithclosetiestotheRussiangovernment,saysthatRussiandefenseplannershavefocused
toomuchondestroyingNATOaircraftcarriersandshoulddevotemoreattentiontosinkingtheshipsofthemerchant
marineofNATOcountries.ThatwillleaveRussiainastrongerpositionafteranywar,heargues
(apn.ru/publications/article35056.htm).
12.YakutskNewspaperWarnsofDisinformationonMoscowTVStation.AnewspaperintheSakhacapitalhasputa
warningatthetopofitsTVschedulelistingswarningviewersthatNTVisfullofdisinformationandthusshouldbe
approachedcautiously(business-gazeta.ru/article/312157).
13.MoreRevenantsfromtheSovietPast.Increasingly,attacksonWesternauthorsresemblethebourgeoisfalsifier
articlesofSoviettimes,somethingthatmeanstheWesternargumentsaregettingthroughbecausetheyarerepeated,albeit
inadistortedway,tomakeMoscowspoints(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Ukraine-pytayutsya-vnushit-chto-ona-
spyativshaya-nedostrana-120062.html).CollectivefarmsareslatedtoreturninIrkutskoblastwhichhasaKPRF
governor(rbc.ru/business/27/05/2016/574803e29a7947b6a1787f8f?from=main).CossacksareagainguardingRussian
borders(nazaccent.ru/content/20832-stanichniki-pogranichniki.html).Andthewordimperialisevermoreoftenfoundin
thenamesofRussianstores,restaurants,andhotels(holywarium.com/3835/our-empire).
AndsixmorefromcountriesneighboringRussia:
14.TajikGastarbeitersIncreasinglyMarryingRussians.InatrendthatpeopleinTajikistansaytheydonotopposebut
thatsomeRussiannationalistsareupsetby,evermoreTajikgastarbeitersinRussiancitiesaremarryinglocalRussian
women(dw.com/p/1Iwzp).
15.Anti-PutinSlogansNowMoreWidespreadinDonetsthaninUkraine.Accordingtooneobserver,visitorsare
morelikelytoencounteranti-PutinslogansamongthepopulationoftheDNRandLNRthantheyaretoseeorhearthem
inUkraineitself(politobzor.net/show-94346-antiputinskie-lozungi-v-donecke-skoro-budut-populyarnee-chem-na-
ukraine.html).
16.DneprWasAlwaysWhatLocalResidentsCalledDneprpetrovsk.ManyintheUkrainiancitynowknownasDnepr
alwayscalleditthatinformallyandareonlysurprisedthatofficialsshouldwanttomakewhathadbeenakindofidentifier
oflocalresidentsintoanofficialname(nv.ua/opinion/turkova/mesta-zvat-nado-134115.html).
17.ChinaNowInvestingMoreinKazakhstanthaninRussia.MoscowmayhaveturnedtowardBeijingpolitically,but
ChinesebusinessinterestsarenowinvestingfarmoreinKazakhstanthanintheRussianFederation(ng.ru/world/2016-06-
02/7_china.html).

18.DefendersofAnti-RussianGroupEmergeinKazakhstan.AfterAstanabegantorepressanorganizationthatwas
openlypro-Kazakhandanti-Russian,agroupdefendingthatorganizationhasemergedandthusspreadthemessageofthe
group(fergananews.com/news/24825).
19.BalticAmazonsBackThisTimeinUkraine.Somepropagandatropesarejusttoogoodtogiveup.Now,25
yearsafterMoscowblamedthemforallsortsofanti-Sovietandanti-Russianactivities,Russianpropagandistsareagain
talkingaboutBalticamazonsandsuggestingthattheyareactivelyworkingagainstMoscowinUkraine
(rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/020616-pribaltika-ukraina/).
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-bakers-dozen-of-neglected-russian.html
15:46Jun.2,2016
WarinEastbroughtmodernslaverytoUkraine
WalkFreeFoundation
Ukraineoccupies33rdplaceforthenumberofslaves,accordingtotheresearch
InUkraine,thereareover210,000slaves.ThisisaccordingtotheWalkFreeFoundation,ananti-slavery
organization.ItclaimsUkrainenotonlyoccupies33rdplaceinGlobalSlaveryIndex,butalsogoesfaraheadofthe
neighboringPoland,RomaniaandMoldova.
ThewarineasternUkraine,wheretheleadersoftheself-proclaimedrepublicsarerecruitingchildren,is
amongthemainreasonsofthemodernslaveryinUkraine.Russian-backedseparatistforceswerealso
reportedtomakelocalsworkfortheso-calledpunitiveforces'aspenaltymeasuresevenforminor
violationsoftheregimerulesintheoccupiedterritories.
http://uatoday.tv/society/war-in-east-brought-modern-slavery-to-ukraine-walk-free-foundation-665808.html
Ex-SeparatistLeaderLaunchesPartyAimedatRestoringRussiasEmpire
MOSCOW-IgorGirkin,aformercommanderandself-declareddefenseministerofUkraines
separatistDonetskPeoplesRepublic,hasofficiallyannouncedthecreationofanultra-
nationalist,irredentistpoliticalpartyknownastheRussianNationalMovement.
AformerFSBcolonelandveteranofseveralpost-Sovietwars,Girkinrosetoprominenceinthe
earlystagesofUkraineswarintheeasternDonbassregion.Knownforhisstridentlyanti-
WesternrhetoricandRussianchauvinism,Girkinsaidhismovementwouldjoinwithotherlike-
mindednationalistpoliticalgroupstocreateapartythatwouldreassertMoscowsauthority
overitsformerimperialdominions.
ThemovementhelditsfirstpartycongressinMoscowonMay28whereitunveiledapolitical
platformthataimstorestoreRussiasimperialglory.
"ThelandswhereRussianslive,whicharesoakedinthebloodoftheRussianpeople,have
therighttobecomeapartofRussia.WewillunitetheRussianFederation,Ukraine,Belarus
andotherhistoricRussianlandsintoasingleall-Russiansuperstateandtransformtheentire
territoryoftheformerSovietUnionintoanunconditionalRussiansphereofinfluence,"the
partysmanifestosays.
http://georgiatoday.ge/news/3927/Ex-Separatist-Leader-Launches-Party-Aimed-at-Restoring-Russia%E2%80%99s-Empire

Wednesday,June1,2016
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,GazetaEditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalselysupposedwasthe
throneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutotherstonotethatRussiaeventodayin
manywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,accordingtotheeditorsofMoscowsGazeta.
Russiansborrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoitspoliticalhabitsinboth
foreignanddomesticpolicy,thepapersays,notingthattheseincludesayingonething,thinkinganotherand
doingathirdtherebymakingtherelationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassedthroughataminimum
fourdifferentstatestheMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,theUSSRandnowpost-SovietRussia.
TheydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhatthatmeansoronthefactthatByzantiumisnotthemost
successfulofmodels.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-remains-byzantine-state-and-that.html
IsaNewIronCurtainFallingOverRussia?
ByOlaCichowlas
May.26201614:06
ThefalloftheSovietUniongaveRussiansatasteforseveralfreedoms.Some,likefreedomofexpressionandassembly,
arenolongertakenforgranted.Others,likefreedomoftravel,areatleastbythemoniedandmobile.Inrecentyears,
however,authoritieshavemadeitclearthatthisfreedomwasnolongerautomaticforthoseitseesasundesirable.New
proposalstoamendRussia'sexistingterrorismlaws,publishedthismonth,raisetheprospectofsuchbansbeinggiven
evenwiderapplication.
"Everyyear,afewhundredRussiansarechargedforthesimplematterofhavinganopinion,"saysAlexanderVerkhovsky,
thedirectorofMoscow'sSOVACenter,whichmonitorsabusesofanti-extremismlegislation.Verkhovskybelievesthis
particularbillwouldbeaclearlimitationofrights,asitwouldenableauthoritiestopunishanindividualpriortoacourt
decision.
Theno-flylistnowalsoincludesdebtorsthoseavoidingpayingbackloansorwhoarebehindintheirtaxpayments.
Duringacrisis,anestimated4millionpeopleareatriskoffallingintothiscategory.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/is-a-new-iron-curtain-falling-over-russia/570259.html
Thursday,June2,2016
RussiaBecomingaCountrywith15MegalopolisesSurroundedbyEmptyLand,
YasinSays
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-becoming-country-with-15.html
RussiasmainpeaceinstrumentiswarSerhyTaran
Moscowhasnootherinstrumentsofpeacebutfanningarmedconflicts.ForRussia,itisabasicpeacetool,arenownedexpert
SerhyTaransaysJune1.
"EachtimetheprolongationofsanctionsisontheWestsagenda,Russiaresortstodoublepolitics.Ontheonehand,itbeatsits
breastssayingitfavorsapeacefulsettlementandimplementationoftheMinskagreements.Ontheotherhand,Moscowstepsup
militaryactivitiesinDonbas,pushingUkrainetoagreetoitstermstoavoidthelossesofitsservicemen.
Itsakindofagood/badcopgame,withDonbasrebelsplayingtheroleofbadcopsforUkraineandPutinbeingtheviceversa.
:http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/06/01/russias_main_peace_instrument_is_war__serhy_taran_704317
TheUnravelingOfMoscow's'Novorossia'Dream
Aleksandr traveled to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, in February 2014 to work for the Russian Unity party
of Sergei Aksyonov, who went on to become Crimea's de facto governor following Russias annexation of the
Ukrainian region. After the annexation, Aleksandr worked within Aksyonovs administration.
'Little Green Men'
His main duties involved organizing Crimeas local defense volunteers. These hastily assembled and poorly
equipped groups were tasked with standing between the Ukrainian military and the infamous little green
men Russian military forces operating in masks without insignias.
Initially, Aleksandr said, there was no money for arms or equipment. But on March 3, the Russiabacked
insurgents managed to take over local branches of several Ukrainian banks. Money started coming in by the
bagful every day, Aleksandr said.
Soon, he was able to offer volunteers up to 800 rubles (roughly $22.40 at the time) a day, and the number
of recruits skyrocketed. After Russian intelligence forces took over the regional Supreme Soviet on February
28, Ukrainian police forces across Crimea seemingly melted away, and Aleksandrs selfdefense forces
scrambled to replace them.
He remembers the first week of March as particularly tense, as proRussia Crimeans waited nervously for any
sign from Moscow.
Until March 6, it was forbidden to speak about unification with Russia or to hang the Russian flag, he says.
Everyone was waiting for a final decision to be made in Moscow.
Aleksandr believes Moscow was waiting to see how Ukraines military would respond to the unfolding
situation. Only after it became apparent that Kyiv was not ready for a confrontation did the Kremlin give the
final goahead.
Russian flags that had been shipped in by the ton were unfurled, and a referendum on independence was
scheduled. Aleksandrs selfdefense forces began arming themselves with weapons taken from Ukrainian
armories
At the same time, more and more representatives of Moscow were appearing in the offices of the de
facto Crimean government. One day a man showed up at Aleksandrs office and said, Im Sasha, a PR
specialist from Moscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/unraveling-moscow-novorossia-dream/27772641.html

UsingRussianFacebookIsaBadIdea
UnlessYouThinktheAnnexationof
CrimeaIsReallyGreat
Roughlyhalfofthe233peopleconvictedofhatespeechlastyearinRussiawere
usingthepopularFacebookcloneVKontakte.Buthatespeechisntalwayshate
speech.Sometimesyoucouldgotojailfortwoyearsforsharingamemeabout
toothpasteandCrimeatoyourtwelveonlinefriends,theAPreports.
http://gawker.com/using-russian-facebook-is-a-bad-idea-unless-you-think-t-1779614952
CrimeaforRussians:faceoffproject
JustafterCrimeaaccessiontoRussiatherewerealotoftalksaboutthemultiple-vectorCrimea
development.Russiangovernmentlaiddownplansregardingtourism,medicine,winemaking,
infrastructure,energeticdevelopment.Alotofpromiseswereheardtosolvetheproblemswithwater
supplyandpurification,withtransportconnection,etc.Theplanofestablishingarecreation,
entertainmentandgamblingarea,inotherwords,ofturningtheislandintomodernLasVegas,was
seriouslydiscussed.ThefreeeconomiczonewasconsideredtobecreatedinCrimea.Allinall,itwas
theperiodofcommitmentsanddreamingforCrimeans.Atthattimeoccupationalauthoritiesdrew
brightprospectsforthefuture.
ThoughtwoyearsafterCrimeaoccupationitispossibletosayforsurethatnopromiseswerefulfilled.
StillKremlinsuccessfullycopeswiththeonlyonetaskimplementationoftheprojectofpowerful
multipurposemilitarybasebuildup.Today,alltheresourcesaredirectedtoachievethisgoal.Noone
stillreferstoCrimeapeacefuldevelopmentplans,thesocialcomponentfellintotheshade.Moreover,it
becomesclearthatCrimeamilitarizationeliminatesthepossibilityoftourismandresortbusiness
development.
TheRussianauthoritiesaimatdeployingpowerfulmilitaryalignmentof100120thousandofmilitary
menintotalatthepeninsula.Itisplannedtolocatemorethan40newregiment-orbrigade-sized
formationsandmilitaryunits.CurrentlythenumberofsoldiersinCrimeaisalreadyabout5060
thousand.Toholdthesituationandpreventpossibleprotestactions,Russianauthoritieshave
substantiallyincreasedthenumberofspecialservicestaff.InCrimeatheirnumberisthreetimesas
muchasinotherRussiaregions.Itseasytoassumethatmajorityofmilitarymenexpecttostayhere
afterretirement.
Thus,thelifeofcivilianssuffersseriouschanges.Militarizationplansregardingthepeninsulainvolve
implementationoftheCrimeaforRussiansonlyproject.Itisevidencedbyquitefrankstatementsof
occupationalauthoritiesrepresentatives.Thus,forexample,thespokesmanofCrimeanstatecouncil
VladimirKonstantinovhasexpresslystatedthatoverthefollowing10yearsCrimeawillremaina
migrationproject.TheRussianauthoritiesencourageRussiancivilservantsandformermilitarymento
movetoCrimea.AllthemanagementofenterprisesandorganizationsisalreadyreplacedbyRussian
specialists.Andthenumberofsuchmigrantsatthepeninsulaisabove100thousand.Allofthemare
followedbymembersoftheirfamilieswives,childrenandoftentheirparentsmovingtothepermanent
placeofresidence.Theygetjobsonaprioritybasisaswellasschoolandkindergartensfortheir
children.Indigenouspeopleappeartobedefeatedinrightsaswellasundesirableswerebyhookor
crookforcedoutofCrimea.TheywerereplacedbyRussians(asarule,fromthedepthofthecountry)
usedtoRussianrealities,whowillnotposeaproblemfortheauthoritiesinfuture.
Asitisknown,tomaintainthemilitarybaseoptimalservicemen/civiliansratioshouldbe1:4,i.e.,four
civiliansserveonemilitaryman.Thus,itiseasytocalculatethat480500thousandofciviliansare
requiredtoserve120thousandstrongmilitaryalignment.Thepartsofthemaremembersofmilitary
mensfamilies.Eveniftodoublethenumberofcivilians,itwillrequirenomorethan1millionofcivilians
toservethemilitarybaseonpeninsulasterritory.Alltheothersareofnoneed.
http://www.groundreport.com/crimea-russians-face-off-project/
Russiannationalist:AnnexingCrimea,Putin
openedthewayforthedisintegrationofRussia
TheleaderoftheRussiannationalistmovementRussiansDmitryDemushkinfindsahugemistakethe
annexationofCrimeabyRussia.
IthinkthatPutinmadeanepicmistakeandriskyundertaking.RevisingthebordersofEuropeisunlawful,
especiallyforRussia,fortheRussianFederationisthelargestandthemostunoccupiedstateintheworld.
FromBaikaltoKamchatkathereisnopeopleandnothingatall.Andrevisingtheworldandbordersbyright
ofthestrongisaTrojanhorse,whichcouldnotbetouched.Theprecedentofrevisingbordersis
dangerousespeciallyfortheRussianFederation,becausethenotionoftheRussianlandisveryrelative,
hesaidinaninterview.
Accordingtohim,suchaprecedentcouldleadtothelossoftheterritoriesofRussiaitself.Reasonably
discussingwhereandwhoselandhistoricallyis,theKurilIslandsmaybeJapanese,FarEastandSiberia
Chinese,KareliaisFinnishandKaliningradGerman,etc.Putinmadeaverydangerousprecedent,andit
isnotintheinterestsoftheRussiansfortomorrowtheChinesecanentertheirgreenmeninSiberiaand
holdareferendumthere.Itwasabigmistaketogiveupontheinternationallawsopublicly.Ibelievethat
bigeventsarewaitingforus.Alotofbloodwillbespilled.Wearestandingonthevergeofsomethingbig
andbloody,concludedDemushkin.
http://en.sobytiya.info/russian-nationalist-annexing-crimea-putin-opened-the-way-for-the-disintegration-of-russia.html
Senttime: 06/01/201610:44:47AM
FW:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeatJapan---StalinDid[OH
Subject: BOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TOSNOWDENORNOTTOSNOWDEN]
Ukraine:17...
Sent:Wednesday,June01,201610:15AM
Subject:Fwd:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeatJapan---StalinDid
[OHBOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TOSNOWDENORNOTTO
SNOWDEN]Ukraine:17...
Date:Wed,Jun1,2016at1:12PM
Subject:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeat
Japan---StalinDid[OHBOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TO
SNOWDENORNOTTOSNOWDEN]Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBannedNYT:Ukrainedeclareswaronjournalism
[Gottaluvthetitle!!ADOUBLEOHBOY!---WITHANYTDURANTYONTOP!!!]
TO NUKE OR NOT TO NUKE
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,May31,2016at3:53PM
Subject:TheBomb[Read:US]DidntBeatJapan---StalinDid[ED:SomeoneisnolongerjustrewritingUkrainian
historylookbelowatthebutcheryinflictedonUShistory.ThesacrificesofAmericansfromGuadalcanaltoIwoJima
orfromMidwaytoLeyteGulforfromDoolittle'sRaidtotheEnolaGayFlightwereallfornaughtStalin'sweeklong
campaignwasallittook]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
StillupontheFP'memorablearticles'site---MemorialDay2016:http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/05/30/the-bomb-didnt-beat-
japan-stalin-did/
TheBombDidntBeatJapanStalinDid
Have70yearsofnuclearpolicybeenbasedonalie?
BYWARDWILSON
TheU.S.useofnuclearweaponsagainstJapanduringWorldWarIIhaslongbeenasubjectof
emotionaldebate.Initially,fewquestionedPresidentTrumansdecisiontodroptwoatomicbombs,on
HiroshimaandNagasaki.But,in1965,historianGarAlperovitzarguedthat,althoughthebombsdid
forceanimmediateendtothewar,Japansleadershadwantedtosurrenderanywayandlikelywould
havedonesobeforetheAmericaninvasionplannedforNovember1.Theirusewas,therefore,
unnecessary.Obviously,ifthebombingswerentnecessarytowinthewar,thenbombingHiroshimaand
Nagasakiwaswrong.Inthe48yearssince,manyothershavejoinedthefray:someechoingAlperovitz
anddenouncingthebombings,othersrejoininghotlythatthebombingsweremoral,necessary,andlife-
saving.
Bothschoolsofthought,however,assumethatthebombingofHiroshimaandNagasakiwithnew,more
powerfulweaponsdidcoerceJapanintosurrenderingonAugust9.Theyfailtoquestiontheutilityof
thebombinginthefirstplacetoask,inessence,diditwork?Theorthodoxviewisthat,yes,ofcourse,
itworked.TheUnitedStatesbombedHiroshimaonAugust6andNagasakionAugust9,whenthe
Japanesefinallysuccumbedtothethreatoffurthernuclearbombardmentandsurrendered.The
supportforthisnarrativerunsdeep.Buttherearethreemajorproblemswithit,and,takentogether,
theysignificantlyunderminethetraditionalinterpretationoftheJapanesesurrender.
TheUnitedStatesofPoliticallyCrazy
Who'stheWorstPresidentialCandidateinU.S.History?
PromotedBy
Timing
Thefirstproblemwiththetraditionalinterpretationistiming.Anditisaseriousproblem.The
traditionalinterpretationhasasimpletimeline:TheU.S.ArmyAirForcebombsHiroshimawitha
nuclearweapononAugust6,threedayslatertheybombNagasakiwithanother,andonthenextdaythe
Japanesesignaltheirintentiontosurrender.*OnecanhardlyblameAmericannewspapersforrunning
headlineslike:PeaceinthePacific:OurBombDidIt!
WhenthestoryofHiroshimaistoldinmostAmericanhistories,thedayofthebombingAugust6
servesasthenarrativeclimax.Alltheelementsofthestorypointforwardtothatmoment:thedecision
tobuildabomb,thesecretresearchatLosAlamos,thefirstimpressivetest,andthefinalculminationat
Hiroshima.Itistold,inotherwords,asastoryabouttheBomb.ButyoucantanalyzeJapansdecision
tosurrenderobjectivelyinthecontextofthestoryoftheBomb.CastingitasthestoryoftheBomb
alreadypresumesthattheBombsroleiscentral.
ViewedfromtheJapaneseperspective,themostimportantdayinthatsecondweekofAugustwasnt
August6butAugust9.ThatwasthedaythattheSupremeCouncilmetforthefirsttimeinthewar
todiscussunconditionalsurrender.TheSupremeCouncilwasagroupofsixtopmembersofthe
governmentasortofinnercabinetthateffectivelyruledJapanin1945.Japansleadershadnot
seriouslyconsideredsurrenderingpriortothatday.Unconditionalsurrender(whattheAllieswere
demanding)wasabitterpilltoswallow.TheUnitedStatesandGreatBritainwerealreadyconvening
warcrimestrialsinEurope.Whatiftheydecidedtoputtheemperorwhowasbelievedtobedivine
ontrial?Whatiftheygotridoftheemperorandchangedtheformofgovernmententirely?Eventhough
thesituationwasbadinthesummerof1945,theleadersofJapanwerenotwillingtoconsidergivingup
theirtraditions,theirbeliefs,ortheirwayoflife.UntilAugust9.Whatcouldhavehappenedthatcaused
themtososuddenlyanddecisivelychangetheirminds?Whatmadethemsitdowntoseriouslydiscuss
surrenderforthefirsttimeafter14yearsofwar?
ItcouldnothavebeenNagasaki.ThebombingofNagasakioccurredinthelatemorningofAugust9,
aftertheSupremeCouncilhadalreadybegunmeetingtodiscusssurrender,andwordofthebombing
onlyreachedJapansleadersintheearlyafternoonafterthemeetingoftheSupremeCouncilhad
beenadjournedindeadlockandthefullcabinethadbeencalledtotakeupthediscussion.Basedon
timingalone,Nagasakicanthavebeenwhatmotivatedthem.
Hiroshimaisntaverygoodcandidateeither.Itcame74hoursmorethanthreedaysearlier.What
kindofcrisistakesthreedaystounfold?Thehallmarkofacrisisisasenseofimpendingdisasterandthe
overwhelmingdesiretotakeactionnow.HowcouldJapansleadershavefeltthatHiroshimatouched
offacrisisandyetnotmeettotalkabouttheproblemforthreedays?
PresidentJohnF.Kennedywassittingupinbedreadingthemorningpapersatabout8:45amon
October16,1962whenMcGeorgeBundy,hisnationalsecurityadvisor,cameintoinformhimthatthe
SovietUnionwassecretlyputtingnuclearmissilesinCuba.Withintwohoursandforty-fiveminutesa
specialcommitteehadbeencreated,itsmembersselected,contacted,broughttotheWhiteHouse,and
wereseatedaroundthecabinettabletodiscusswhatshouldbedone.
PresidentHarryTrumanwasvacationinginIndependence,MissourionJune25,1950whenNorth
Koreasentitstroopsacrossthe38thparallel,invadingSouthKorea.SecretaryofStateAchesoncalled
TrumanthatSaturdaymorningtogivehimthenews.Within24hours,Trumanhadflownhalfway
acrosstheUnitedStatesandwasseatedatBlairHouse(theWhiteHousewasundergoingrenovations)
withhistopmilitaryandpoliticaladvisorstalkingaboutwhattodo.
EvenGeneralGeorgeBrintonMcClellantheUnioncommanderoftheArmyofthePotomacin1863
duringtheAmericanCivilWar,ofwhomPresidentLincolnsaidsadly,Hesgottheslowswasted
only12hourswhenhewasgivenacapturedcopyofGeneralRobertE.Leesordersfortheinvasionof
Maryland.
Theseleadersrespondedasleadersinanycountrywouldtotheimperativecallthatacrisiscreates.
Theyeachtookdecisivestepsinashortperiodoftime.Howcanwesquarethissortofbehaviorwiththe
actionsofJapansleaders?IfHiroshimareallytouchedoffacrisisthateventuallyforcedtheJapaneseto
surrenderafterfightingfor14years,whydidittakethemthreedaystositdowntodiscussit?
Onemightarguethatthedelayisperfectlylogical.Perhapstheyonlycametorealizetheimportanceof
thebombingslowly.Perhapstheydidntknowitwasanuclearweaponandwhentheydidrealizeitand
understoodtheterribleeffectssuchaweaponcouldhave,theynaturallyconcludedtheyhadto
surrender.Unfortunately,thisexplanationdoesntsquarewiththeevidence.
First,HiroshimasgovernorreportedtoTokyoontheverydayHiroshimawasbombedthataboutathird
ofthepopulationhadbeenkilledintheattackandthattwothirdsofthecityhadbeendestroyed.This
informationdidntchangeoverthenextseveraldays.Sotheoutcometheendresultofthebombing
wasclearfromthebeginning.Japansleadersknewroughlytheoutcomeoftheattackonthefirstday,
yettheystilldidnotact.
Second,thepreliminaryreportpreparedbytheArmyteamthatinvestigatedtheHiroshimabombing,
theonethatgavedetailsaboutwhathadhappenedthere,wasnotdelivereduntilAugust10.Itdidnt
reachTokyo,inotherwords,untilafterthedecisiontosurrenderhadalreadybeentaken.Althoughtheir
verbalreportwasdelivered(tothemilitary)onAugust8,thedetailsofthebombingwerenotavailable
untiltwodayslater.Thedecisiontosurrenderwasthereforenotbasedonadeepappreciationofthe
horroratHiroshima.
Third,theJapanesemilitaryunderstood,atleastinaroughway,whatnuclearweaponswere.Japan
hadanuclearweaponsprogram.Severalofthemilitarymenmentionthefactthatitwasanuclear
weaponthatdestroyedHiroshimaintheirdiaries.GeneralAnamiKorechika,minsterofwar,evenwent
toconsultwiththeheadoftheJapanesenuclearweaponsprogramonthenightofAugust7.Theidea
thatJapansleadersdidnt
knowaboutnuclearweaponsdoesntholdup.
Finally,oneotherfactabouttimingcreatesastrikingproblem.OnAugust8,ForeignMinisterTogo
ShigenoriwenttoPremierSuzukiKantaroandaskedthattheSupremeCouncilbeconvenedtodiscuss
thebombingofHiroshima,butitsmembersdeclined.Sothecrisisdidntgrowdaybydayuntilitfinally
burstintofullbloomonAugust9.AnyexplanationoftheactionsofJapansleadersthatreliesonthe
shockofthebombingofHiroshimahastoaccountforthefactthattheyconsideredameetingto
discussthebombingonAugust8,madeajudgmentthatitwastoounimportant,andthensuddenly
decidedtomeettodiscusssurrendertheverynextday.Eithertheysuccumbedtosomesortofgroup
schizophrenia,orsomeothereventwastherealmotivationtodiscusssurrender.
Scale
Historically,theuseoftheBombmayseemlikethemostimportantdiscreteeventofthewar.Fromthe
contemporaryJapaneseperspective,however,itmightnothavebeensoeasytodistinguishtheBomb
fromotherevents.Itis,afterall,difficulttodistinguishasingledropofraininthemidstofahurricane.
Inthesummerof1945,theU.S.ArmyAirForcecarriedoutoneofthemostintensecampaignsofcity
destructioninthehistoryoftheworld.Sixty-eightcitiesinJapanwereattackedandallofthemwere
eitherpartiallyorcompletelydestroyed.Anestimated1.7millionpeopleweremadehomeless,300,000
werekilled,and750,000werewounded.Sixty-sixoftheseraidswerecarriedoutwithconventional
bombs,twowithatomicbombs.Thedestructioncausedbyconventionalattackswashuge.Nightafter
night,allsummerlong,citieswouldgoupinsmoke.Inthemidstofthiscascadeofdestruction,itwould
notbesurprisingifthisorthatindividualattackfailedtomakemuchofanimpressionevenifitwas
carriedoutwitharemarkablenewtypeofweapon.
AB-29bomberflyingfromtheMarianaIslandscouldcarrydependingonthelocationofthetarget
andthealtitudeofattacksomewherebetween16,000and20,000poundsofbombs.Atypicalraid
consistedof500bombers.Thismeansthatthetypicalconventionalraidwasdropping4to5kilotonsof
bombsoneachcity.(Akilotonisathousandtonsandisthestandardmeasureoftheexplosivepowerof
anuclearweapon.TheHiroshimabombmeasured16.5kilotons,theNagasakibomb20kilotons.)Given
thatmanybombsspreadthedestructionevenly(andthereforemoreeffectively),whileasingle,more
powerfulbombwastesmuchofitspoweratthecenteroftheexplosionre-bouncingtherubble,asit
wereitcouldbearguedthatsomeoftheconventionalraidsapproachedthedestructionofthetwo
atomicbombings.
Thefirstoftheconventionalraids,anightattackonTokyoonMarch9-10,1945,remainsthesingle
mostdestructiveattackonacityinthehistoryofwar.Somethinglike16squaremilesofthecitywere
burnedout.Anestimated120,000Japaneselosttheirlivesthesinglehighestdeathtollofany
bombingattackonacity.
Weoftenimagine,becauseofthewaythestoryistold,thatthebombingofHiroshimawasfarworse.
Weimaginethatthenumberofpeoplekilledwasoffthecharts.Butifyougraphthenumberofpeople
killedinall68citiesbombedinthesummerof1945,youfindthatHiroshimawassecondintermsof
civiliandeaths.Ifyouchartthenumberofsquaremilesdestroyed,youfindthatHiroshimawasfourth.
Ifyouchartthepercentageofthecitydestroyed,Hiroshimawas17th.Hiroshimawasclearlywithinthe
parametersoftheconventionalattackscarriedoutthatsummer.
Fromourperspective,Hiroshimaseemssingular,extraordinary.Butifyouputyourselfintheshoesof
JapansleadersinthethreeweeksleadinguptotheattackonHiroshima,thepictureisconsiderably
different.IfyouwereoneofthekeymembersofJapansgovernmentinlateJulyandearlyAugust,your
experienceofcitybombingwouldhavebeensomethinglikethis:OnthemorningofJuly17,youwould
havebeengreetedbyreportsthatduringthenightfourcitieshadbeenattacked:Oita,Hiratsuka,
Numazu,andKuwana.Ofthese,OitaandHiratsukaweremorethan50percentdestroyed.Kuwanawas
morethan75percentdestroyedandNumazuwashitevenmoreseverely,withsomethinglike90percent
ofthecityburnedtotheground.
Threedayslateryouhavewokentofindthatthreemorecitieshadbeenattacked.Fukuiwasmorethan
80percentdestroyed.Aweeklaterandthreemorecitieshavebeenattackedduringthenight.Twodays
laterandsixmorecitieswereattackedinonenight,includingIchinomiya,whichwas75percent
destroyed.OnAugust2,youwouldhavearrivedattheofficetoreportsthatfourmorecitieshavebeen
attacked.AndthereportswouldhaveincludedtheinformationthatToyama(roughlythesizeof
Chattanooga,Tennesseein1945),hadbeen99.5percentdestroyed.Virtuallytheentirecityhadbeen
leveled.Fourdayslaterandfourmorecitieshavebeenattacked.OnAugust6,onlyonecity,Hiroshima,
wasattackedbutreportssaythatthedamagewasgreatandanewtypebombwasused.Howmuch
wouldthisonenewattackhavestoodoutagainstthebackgroundofcitydestructionthathadbeen
goingonforweeks?
InthethreeweekspriortoHiroshima,26citieswereattackedbytheU.S.ArmyAirForce.Ofthese,
eightoralmostathirdwereascompletelyormorecompletelydestroyedthanHiroshima(interms
ofthepercentageofthecitydestroyed).ThefactthatJapanhad68citiesdestroyedinthesummerof
1945posesaseriouschallengeforpeoplewhowanttomakethebombingofHiroshimathecauseof
Japanssurrender.Thequestionis:Iftheysurrenderedbecauseacitywasdestroyed,whydidntthey
surrenderwhenthoseother66citiesweredestroyed?
IfJapansleadersweregoingtosurrenderbecauseofHiroshimaandNagasaki,youwouldexpectto
findthattheycaredaboutthebombingofcitiesingeneral,thatthecityattacksputpressureonthemto
surrender.Butthisdoesntappeartobeso.TwodaysafterthebombingofTokyo,retiredForeign
MinisterShideharaKijuroexpressedasentimentthatwasapparentlywidelyheldamongJapanese
high-rankingofficialsatthetime.Shideharaopinedthatthepeoplewouldgraduallygetusedtobeing
bombeddaily.Intimetheirunityandresolvewouldgrowstronger.Inalettertoafriendhesaiditwas
importantforcitizenstoendurethesufferingbecauseevenifhundredsofthousandsofnoncombatants
arekilled,injured,orstarved,evenifmillionsofbuildingsaredestroyedorburned,additionaltimewas
neededfordiplomacy.ItisworthrememberingthatShideharawasamoderate.
AtthehighestlevelsofgovernmentintheSupremeCouncilattitudeswereapparentlythesame.
AlthoughtheSupremeCouncildiscussedtheimportanceoftheSovietUnionremainingneutral,they
didnthaveafull-dressdiscussionabouttheimpactofcitybombing.Intherecordsthathavebeen
preserved,citybombingdoesntevengetmentionedduringSupremeCouncildiscussionsexceptontwo
occasions:onceinpassinginMay1945andonceduringthewide-rangingdiscussiononthenightof
August9.Basedontheevidence,itisdifficulttomakeacasethatJapansleadersthoughtthatcity
bombingcomparedtotheotherpressingmattersinvolvedinrunningawarhadmuchsignificance
atall.
GeneralAnamionAugust13remarkedthattheatomicbombingswerenomoremenacingthanthefire-
bombingthatJapanhadenduredformonths.IfHiroshimaandNagasakiwerenoworsethanthefire
bombings,andifJapansleadersdidnotconsiderthemimportantenoughtodiscussindepth,howcan
HiroshimaandNagasakihavecoercedthemtosurrender?
StrategicSignificance
IftheJapanesewerenotconcernedwithcitybombingingeneralortheatomicbombingofHiroshima
inparticular,whatweretheyconcernedwith?Theanswer
issimple:theSovietUnion.
TheJapanesewereinarelativelydifficultstrategicsituation.Theywerenearingtheendofawarthey
werelosing.Conditionswerebad.TheArmy,however,wasstillstrongandwell-supplied.Nearly4
millionmenwereunderarmsand1.2millionofthosewereguardingJapanshomeislands.
EventhemosthardlineleadersinJapansgovernmentknewthatthewarcouldnotgoon.Thequestion
wasnotwhethertocontinue,buthowtobringthewartoacloseunderthebesttermspossible.The
Allies(theUnitedStates,GreatBritain,andotherstheSovietUnion,remember,wasstillneutral)
weredemandingunconditionalsurrender.Japansleadershopedthattheymightbeabletofigureout
awaytoavoidwarcrimestrials,keeptheirformofgovernment,andkeepsomeoftheterritoriestheyd
conquered:Korea,Vietnam,Burma,partsofMalaysiaandIndonesia,alargeportionofeasternChina,
andnumerousislandsinthePacific.
Theyhadtwoplansforgettingbettersurrendertermstheyhad,inotherwords,twostrategicoptions.
Thefirstwasdiplomatic.Japanhadsignedafive-yearneutralitypactwiththeSovietsinAprilof1941,
whichwouldexpirein1946.AgroupconsistingmostlyofcivilianleadersandledbyForeignMinister
TogoShigenorihopedthatStalinmightbeconvincedtomediateasettlementbetweentheUnitedStates
anditsalliesontheonehand,andJapanontheother.Eventhoughthisplanwasalongshot,it
reflectedsoundstrategicthinking.Afterall,itwouldbeintheSovietUnionsinteresttomakesurethat
thetermsofthesettlementwerenottoofavorabletotheUnitedStates:anyincreaseinU.S.influence
andpowerinAsiawouldmeanadecreaseinRussianpowerandinfluence.
Thesecondplanwasmilitary,andmostofitsproponents,ledbytheArmyMinisterAnamiKorechika,
weremilitarymen.TheyhopedtouseImperialArmygroundtroopstoinflicthighcasualtiesonU.S.
forceswhentheyinvaded.Iftheysucceeded,theyfelt,theymightbeabletogettheUnitedStatesto
offerbetterterms.Thisstrategywasalsoalongshot.TheUnitedStatesseemeddeeplycommittedto
unconditionalsurrender.Butsincetherewas,infact,concerninU.S.militarycirclesthatthecasualties
inaninvasionwouldbeprohibitive,theJapanesehighcommandsstrategywasnotentirelyoffthe
mark.
OnewaytogaugewhetheritwasthebombingofHiroshimaortheinvasionanddeclarationofwarby
theSovietUnionthatcausedJapanssurrenderistocomparethewayinwhichthesetwoeventsaffected
thestrategicsituation.AfterHiroshimawasbombedonAugust8,bothoptionswerestillalive.Itwould
stillhavebeenpossibletoaskStalintomediate(andTakagisdiaryentriesfromAugust8showthatat
leastsomeofJapansleaderswerestillthinkingabouttheefforttogetStalininvolved).Itwouldalso
stillhavebeenpossibletotrytofightonelastdecisivebattleandinflictheavycasualties.Thedestruction
ofHiroshimahaddonenothingtoreducethepreparednessofthetroopsduginonthebeachesof
Japanshomeislands.Therewasnowonefewercitybehindthem,buttheywerestilldugin,theystill
hadammunition,andtheirmilitarystrengthhadnotbeendiminishedinanyimportantway.Bombing
HiroshimadidnotforecloseeitherofJapansstrategicoptions.
TheimpactoftheSovietdeclarationofwarandinvasionofManchuriaandSakhalinIslandwasquite
different,however.OncetheSovietUnionhaddeclaredwar,Stalincouldnolongeractasamediator
hewasnowabelligerent.SothediplomaticoptionwaswipedoutbytheSovietmove.Theeffectonthe
militarysituationwasequallydramatic.MostofJapansbesttroopshadbeenshiftedtothesouthern
partofthehomeislands.Japansmilitaryhadcorrectlyguessedthatthelikelyfirsttargetofan
AmericaninvasionwouldbethesouthernmostislandofKyushu.TheonceproudKwangtungarmyin
Manchuria,forexample,wasashellofitsformerselfbecauseitsbestunitshadbeenshiftedawayto
defendJapanitself.WhentheRussiansinvadedManchuria,theyslicedthroughwhathadoncebeenan
elitearmyandmanyRussianunitsonlystoppedwhentheyranoutofgas.TheSoviet16thArmy
100,000stronglaunchedaninvasionofthesouthernhalfofSakhalinIsland.Theirorderswereto
mopupJapaneseresistancethere,andthenwithin10to14daysbepreparedtoinvadeHokkaido,
thenorthernmostofJapanshomeislands.TheJapaneseforcetaskedwithdefendingHokkaido,the5th
AreaArmy,wasunderstrengthattwodivisionsandtwobrigades,andwasinfortifiedpositionsonthe
eastsideoftheisland.TheSovietplanofattackcalledforaninvasionofHokkaidofromthewest.
Itdidnttakeamilitarygeniustoseethat,whileitmightbepossibletofightadecisivebattleagainstone
greatpowerinvadingfromonedirection,itwouldnotbepossibletofightofftwogreatpowersattacking
fromtwodifferentdirections.TheSovietinvasioninvalidatedthemilitarysdecisivebattlestrategy,just
asitinvalidatedthediplomaticstrategy.Atasinglestroke,allofJapansoptionsevaporated.TheSoviet
invasionwasstrategicallydecisiveitforeclosedbothofJapansoptionswhilethebombingof
Hiroshima(whichforeclosedneither)wasnot.
TheSovietdeclarationofwaralsochangedthecalculationofhowmuchtimewasleftformaneuver.
JapaneseintelligencewaspredictingthatU.S.forcesmightnotinvadeformonths.Sovietforces,onthe
otherhand,couldbeinJapanproperinaslittleas10days.TheSovietinvasionmadeadecisionon
endingthewarextremelytimesensitive.
AndJapansleadershadreachedthisconclusionsomemonthsearlier.InameetingoftheSupreme
CouncilinJune1945,theysaidthatSovietentryintothewarwoulddeterminethefateoftheEmpire.
ArmyDeputyChiefofStaffKawabesaid,inthatsamemeeting,Theabsolutemaintenanceofpeacein
ourrelationswiththeSovietUnionisimperativeforthecontinuationofthewar.
Japansleadersconsistentlydisplayeddisinterestinthecitybombingthatwaswreckingtheircities.And
whilethismayhavebeenwrongwhenthebombingbeganinMarchof1945,bythetimeHiroshimawas
hit,theywerecertainlyrighttoseecitybombingasanunimportantsideshow,intermsofstrategic
impact.WhenTrumanfamouslythreatenedtovisitarainofruinonJapanesecitiesifJapandidnot
surrender,fewpeopleintheUnitedStatesrealizedthattherewasverylittlelefttodestroy.ByAugust7,
whenTrumansthreatwasmade,only10citieslargerthan100,000peopleremainedthathadnot
alreadybeenbombed.OnceNagasakiwasattackedonAugust9,onlyninecitieswereleft.Fourofthose
wereonthenorthernmostislandofHokkaido,whichwasdifficulttobombbecauseofthedistancefrom
TinianIslandwhereAmericanplaneswerebased.Kyoto,theancientcapitalofJapan,hadbeen
removedfromthetargetlistbySecretaryofWarHenryStimsonbecauseofitsreligiousandsymbolic
importance.SodespitethefearsomesoundofTrumansthreat,afterNagasakiwasbombedonlyfour
majorcitiesremainedwhichcouldreadilyhavebeenhitwithatomicweapons.
ThethoroughnessandextentoftheU.S.ArmyAirForcescampaignofcitybombingcanbegaugedby
thefactthattheyhadrunthroughsomanyofJapanscitiesthattheywerereducedtobombingcities
of30,000peopleorfewer.Inthemodernworld,30,000isnomorethanalargetown.
Ofcourseitwouldalwayshavebeenpossibletore-bombcitiesthathadalreadybeenbombedwith
firebombs.Butthesecitieswere,onaverage,already50percentdestroyed.OrtheUnitedStatescould
havebombedsmallercitieswithatomicweapons.Therewere,however,onlysixsmallercities(with
populationsbetween30,000and100,000)whichhadnotalreadybeenbombed.GiventhatJapanhad
alreadyhadmajorbombingdamagedoneto68cities,and
had,forthemostpart,shruggeditoff,itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatJapansleaderswere
unimpressedwiththethreatoffurtherbombing.Itwasnotstrategicallycompelling.
AConvenientStory
Despitetheexistenceofthesethreepowerfulobjections,thetraditionalinterpretationstillretainsa
strongholdonmanypeoplesthinking,particularlyintheUnitedStates.Thereisrealresistanceto
lookingatthefacts.Butperhapsthisshouldnotbesurprising.Itisworthremindingourselveshow
emotionallyconvenientthetraditionalexplanationofHiroshimaisbothforJapanandtheUnited
States.Ideascanhavepersistencebecausetheyaretrue,butunfortunately,theycanalsopersistbecause
theyareemotionallysatisfying:Theyfillanimportantpsychicneed.Forexample,attheendofthewar
thetraditionalinterpretationofHiroshimahelpedJapansleadersachieveanumberofimportant
politicalaims,bothdomesticandinternational.
Putyourselfintheshoesoftheemperor.Youvejustledyourcountrythroughadisastrouswar.The
economyisshattered.Eightypercentofyourcitieshavebeenbombedandburned.TheArmyhasbeen
pummeledinastringofdefeats.TheNavyhasbeendecimatedandconfinedtoport.Starvationis
looming.Thewar,inshort,hasbeenacatastropheand,worstofall,youvebeenlyingtoyourpeople
abouthowbadthesituationreallyis.Theywillbeshockedbynewsofsurrender.Sowhichwouldyou
ratherdo?Admitthatyoufailedbadly?Issueastatementthatsaysthatyoumiscalculated
spectacularly,maderepeatedmistakes,anddidenormousdamagetothenation?Orwouldyourather
blamethelossonanamazingscientificbreakthroughthatnoonecouldhavepredicted?Atasingle
stroke,blamingthelossofthewarontheatomicbombsweptallthemistakesandmisjudgmentsofthe
warundertherug.TheBombwastheperfectexcuseforhavinglostthewar.Noneedtoapportion
blamenocourtofenquiryneedbeheld.Japansleaderswereabletoclaimtheyhaddonetheirbest.So,
atthemostgeneralleveltheBombservedtodeflectblamefromJapansleaders.
ButattributingJapansdefeattotheBombalsoservedthreeotherspecificpoliticalpurposes.First,it
helpedtopreservethelegitimacyoftheemperor.Ifthewarwaslostnotbecauseofmistakesbut
becauseoftheenemysunexpectedmiracleweapon,thentheinstitutionoftheemperormightcontinue
tofindsupportwithinJapan.
Second,itappealedtointernationalsympathy.Japanhadwagedwaraggressively,andwithparticular
brutalitytowardconqueredpeoples.Itsbehaviorwaslikelytobecondemnedbyothernations.Being
abletorecastJapanasavictimizednationonethathadbeenunfairlybombedwithacrueland
horrifyinginstrumentofwarwouldhelptooffsetsomeofthemorallyrepugnantthingsJapans
militaryhaddone.DrawingattentiontotheatomicbombingshelpedtopaintJapaninamore
sympatheticlightanddeflectsupportforharshpunishment.
Finally,sayingthattheBombwonthewarwouldpleaseJapansAmericanvictors.TheAmerican
occupationdidnotofficiallyendinJapanuntil1952,andduringthattimetheUnitedStateshadthe
powertochangeorremakeJapanesesocietyastheysawfit.Duringtheearlydaysoftheoccupation,
manyJapaneseofficialsworriedthattheAmericansintendedtoabolishtheinstitutionoftheemperor.
Andtheyhadanotherworry.ManyofJapanstopgovernmentofficialsknewthattheymightfacewar
crimestrials(thewarcrimestrialsagainstGermanysleaderswerealreadyunderwayinEuropewhen
Japansurrendered).JapanesehistorianAsadaSadaohassaidthatinmanyofthepostwarinterviews
JapaneseofficialswereobviouslyanxioustopleasetheirAmericanquestioners.IftheAmericans
wantedtobelievethattheBombwonthewar,whydisappointthem?
AttributingtheendofthewartotheatomicbombservedJapansinterestsinmultipleways.Butitalso
servedU.S.interests.IftheBombwonthewar,thentheperceptionofU.S.militarypowerwouldbe
enhanced,U.S.diplomaticinfluenceinAsiaandaroundtheworldwouldincrease,andU.S.security
wouldbestrengthened.The$2billionspenttobuilditwouldnothavebeenwasted.If,ontheother
hand,theSovietentryintothewarwaswhatcausedJapantosurrender,thentheSovietscouldclaim
thattheywereabletodoinfourdayswhattheUnitedStateswasunabletodoinfouryears,andthe
perceptionofSovietmilitarypowerandSovietdiplomaticinfluencewouldbeenhanced.Andoncethe
ColdWarwasunderway,assertingthattheSovietentryhadbeenthedecisivefactorwouldhavebeen
tantamounttogivingaidandcomforttotheenemy.
Itistroublingtoconsider,giventhequestionsraisedhere,thattheevidenceofHiroshimaandNagasaki
isattheheartofeverythingwethinkaboutnuclearweapons.Thiseventisthebedrockofthecasefor
theimportanceofnuclearweapons.Itiscrucialtotheiruniquestatus,thenotionthatthenormalrules
donotapplytonuclearweapons.Itisanimportantmeasureofnuclearthreats:Trumansthreattovisit
arainofruinonJapanwasthefirstexplicitnuclearthreat.Itiskeytotheauraofenormouspower
thatsurroundstheweaponsandmakesthemsoimportantininternationalrelations.
ButwhatarewetomakeofallthoseconclusionsifthetraditionalstoryofHiroshimaiscalledinto
doubt?Hiroshimaisthecenter,thepointfromwhichallotherclaimsandassertionsradiateout.Yetthe
storywehavebeentellingourselvesseemsprettyfarremovedfromthefacts.Whatarewetothinkabout
nuclearweaponsifthisenormousfirstaccomplishmentthemiracleofJapanssuddensurrender
turnsouttobeamyth?
Photocredit:AFP/GettyImages
*Correction:ThisarticleoriginallyreferredtotheU.S.AirForce,insteadoftheU.S.ArmyAirForce.
From:hunter@
Subject:TestedbyRussia,NATOStrugglestoStayCredible[ED:Americanshavingplayedwithnukeoptionstostop
aWWapparentlycontinuesto'sethaironfair'theRussiansincorporating'nukeoptions'intheirnewmilitary
doctrinegetsablandparagraph]
KEYQUOTE:
Still,thereisanothertroublingRussia-relatedissueforNATOhowtodealwithanewRussianmilitarydoctrinethat
considerstheutilityoftacticalnuclearweaponsatthebeginningofaconflict,asadeterrentagainstanadversary
retakingterritory,followedbywhatplannerscallaquickde-escalation.

TestedbyRussia,NATOStrugglestoStay
Credible
BySTEVENERLANGERMAY31,2016
Save
Photo
GeorgiansoldiersduringajointNATOmilitaryexercisewithAmericanandBritishservicemembersatthe
VazianimilitarybaseoutsideTbilisiinMay.CreditZurabKurtsikidze/EuropeanPressphotoAgency
BRUSSELSSixweeksbeforeacriticalsummitmeetingaimedatbolsteringNATOsdeterrence
againstaresurgentRussia,theallianceisfacingalonglistofchallenges.Thefirstistofindacountryto
leadthelastoffourmilitaryunitstobedeployedinPolandandthethreeBalticnations.
Butthat,analystssay,couldbetheleastofitsproblems.
SecurityconcernsareashighnowastheyhavebeensincetheendoftheColdWar.Astheimmigration
crisishasstrainedrelationswithintheContinent,anxietieshavebeenheightenedbyRussianmilitary
offensivesinCrimeaandeasternUkraine,andabombingcampaigninSyriathathasdemonstrated
Moscowsrapidlyincreasingcapabilities.Lately,Russiahastalkedopenlyabouttheutilityof
tacticalnuclearweapons.
Despitethegrowingthreats,manyEuropeancountriesstillresiststrongmeasures
tostrengthenNATO.Manyremainreluctanttoincreasemilitaryspending,despitepastpledges.Some,
likeItaly,arecuttingback.Franceisrevertingtoitstraditionalskepticismtowardthealliance,whichit
seesasaninstrumentofAmericanpolicyandaninfringementonitssovereignty.
AndthatisnottomentionthedeclarationsofthepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,
DonaldJ.Trump,thatNATOisobsolete,thatthealliesarerippingofftheUnitedStatesandthat
hewouldnotreallybeconcernedifthealliancebrokeup.Whilethatmaybecampaignbluster,itdoes
reflectagrowingunwillingnessintheUnitedStatestoshoulderadisproportionateshareoftheNATO
burden,militarilyandfinancially.
Thecurrentconcern,andamajorelementofwhattheNATOsecretarygeneral,JensStoltenberg,calls
thebiggestreinforcementofcollectivedefensesincetheendoftheColdWar,isthedecisiontoput
fourcombatbattalionsofupto1,000soldierseachinthosefront-linecountriesborderingRussia.
WhileBritain,GermanyandtheUnitedStateshaveagreedtoleadonebattalioneach,tobefilledout
withsoldiersfromotherNATOalliestopreservetheideaofmultinationalforces,leadershipofthe
fourthisnotyetinsightastheJuly8-9summitmeetinginWarsawrapidlyapproaches.
TheUnitedStatesisnotthinkingaboutdoingtwo,saiditsambassadortoNATO,DouglasE.Lute.
Wereplanningtodooneandgetouralliestostepupfortheotherthree.
ButotherlargernationslikeItalyandFrancehavedeclined.Italycutmilitaryspendingafterpledging
toincreaseittwoyearsagoinWales.Itsleaderssayitisalreadyparticipatinginanewlyenlarged
alliancerapid-reactionforce.
AndFrance,whichhasrevertedunderthecurrentSocialistgovernmenttoamoremistrustingviewof
NATOanditsAmericanleadership,isstretchedthininitsmilitarycampaignsinMali,theCentral
AfricanRepublicandNorthAfricaandSyria,letalonepatrollingitsownstreetsagainstterroristattack.
Franceislikelytocontributeonlyabout150soldierstothenewdeployments,NATOofficialssay,after
finallyagreeingtotheideaofforwarddeploymentsinPolandafterinitialopposition.Germany,which
sixmonthsagoopposedthesedeployments,agreedinreturnforeffortsatreneweddialoguewith
Russia.Italsoagreedtoleadonebattalion.
Sothesearchgoesonforafourthleadnation.Mr.Stoltenbergisconfidentitwillbefoundbythe
summitmeeting.
Thedeploymentsareimportant,becausethesecombatbattalionsaredesignednottobesimple
tripwires,buttobelargeenoughandsufficientlywellequippedtodoaninvaderrealdamage.Then
theycanbereinforcedmorequicklywiththeenhancedrapid-reactionforceandanotherNATOand
AmericandecisiontostationanotherUnitedStatesarmoredcombatbrigadeofaround5,000
soldiersinEurope(foratotalofthree)andtopre-positionitsheavyequipmentliketanksandartillery.
Polandisdemandingthatsomeofthatequipmentbepre-positionedonitsterritory,butforthe
moment,mostofitwillgotoGermany,BelgiumandtheNetherlands,whichhavestorageand
transportfacilitiesdatingfromtheColdWar.
Onlynow,infact,isNATOactuallysurveyingtheinfrastructurethebridges,roadsandrailways
ofrelativelynewermemberstatesinCentralandEasternEurope,nothavingjudgeditnecessary
beforetoplanhowtoquicklyreinforcethemincaseofaRussianinvasion.Pre-positioninginEastern
Europewouldcurrentlyrequirelargesumsforcapitalinvestmenttobuildspecialnewwarehousesand
infrastructure,Mr.Lutesaid.
Poland,eagertosendmessagestoMoscow,didsucceedinadvancinggroundbreakingforaballistic
missiledefensesitetocoincidewiththeoperationalopeningofoneinRomania.WhileMr.Stoltenberg
andWashingtoninsistthatsuchmissiledefensesarenotaimedatRussianintercontinentalballistic
missiles,Moscowisnotconvinced.
Here,too,Francehasbeenskeptical,nervousthatthereactiontimeofmissiledefensewillcircumvent
thepoliticaloversightoftheNorthAtlanticCouncil,theassemblyofmemberstatesandtheir
ambassadorsthatmakesNATOdecisionsbyconsensus.
Forthesamereason,FrancehasbeenreluctanttoallowtheNATOsupremecommander,whois
alwaysanAmericangeneral,toomuchauthoritytoactinacrisis,whichotherssayisneededto
respondquickly.
Buttheinitialmissiledefenseprogram,combinedwithnewforwarddeploymentsnearRussia(tobe
rotated,toavoidcallingthempermanent)andanenlargedrapidreactionforce,supposedlyreadyto
deployin48hours,allareameasureofhowmuchRussiasrecentactionshavechangedNATOs
calculations.
NATOistryingtoreassurevulnerablemembersliketheBalticStates,Polandandevensouthern
members,likeRomania,BulgariaandTurkeyontheBlackSea,thattheallianceintendstodeliveron
itspromiseofcollectivedefense.Missiledefenseispartoftheresponse,alongwithmorenaval
exercisesintheBlackSeaandmoreconsistentoverflightsbyreconnaissanceaircraft.
AsMr.Stoltenbergpointsout,theimpactofRussianpolicyhasfinallypushedEuropeanmembersof
NATOtoatleasthaltthedecades-longdeclineinmilitaryspending.Thisyear,hesaid,estimatesare
thatEuropeanallieswillasawholeincreasemilitaryspending,somethingWashingtonhasbeen
demanding,eventhoughmostarenotyetspendingthe2percentofG.D.P.thatistheNATOguideline.
Some16ofthe28memberstateshaveincreasedmilitaryspendinginrealterms,withonlyItaly,
BulgariaandCroatiastillcutting,althoughtheyinsistthatthecutsaretemporary.Iknowthemoodin
WashingtonandIunderstandit:theAmericanswanttoseetheEuropeansdoingmore,contributing
more,Mr.Stoltenbergsaid.ThishasbeenmymainmessageinEuropeancapitals.
Still,thereisanothertroublingRussia-relatedissueforNATOhowtodealwithanewRussian
militarydoctrinethatconsiderstheutilityoftacticalnuclearweaponsatthebeginningofaconflict,asa
deterrentagainstanadversaryretakingterritory,followedbywhatplannerscallaquickde-
escalation.
SomemembernationsbelievethatRussiaalreadyhasnuclearweaponsintheenclaveofKaliningrad,
ontheBalticSea,whereitpubliclydisplayednuclearwarheadsinapreviousexercise.Russiahasbeen
unclearaboutwhethertheyhavebeenremoved.
Whileawareofpublichorroraboutusingnuclearweapons,Mr.Stoltenberg,Mr.Luteandothers
emphasizethatNATOremainsanuclearallianceandthatitsdeterrenceismeanttobeseamless,
rangingfromresponsestocyberattacksthroughconventionalweaponsandifnecessary,nuclear
weapons,too.
NATOdoesnotregarditsnucleararsenalashavinganyuseotherthanpoliticaldeterrence,Mr.
Stoltenbergsaid.Butaslongasnuclearweaponsexistintheworld,hesaid,wehavetoremaina
nuclearalliance.
TO SNOWDEN OR NOT TO SNOWDEN
From:MarkVonHagen<Mark.Vonhagen@asu.edu>
Date:Wed,Jun1,2016at9:50AM
Subject:FW:Pressrelease-Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned[Ed:Whatevertheultimatewisdomoftheban,
wisewitssaythatalotofGRUDezinformspecialistsdressupas'correspondents'notethatPutinin2014gaveout
severaldozenmedalsofcourage/meritto'journalists]
GreetingsfromWien!
From:<ownereca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>onbehalfofKathrynZehr<zehrk@hrw.org>
Date:Wednesday,June1,2016at6:33AM
To:"eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org"<eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>
Subject:PressreleaseUkraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned
http://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/01/ukraine-17-russian-journalists-banned
Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned
DropSanctions,RespectMediaFreedom
(Moscow)Ukrainianauthoritiesshouldimmediatelydropabanon17Russianjournalistsandprotectmediafreedom,Human
RightsWatchsaidtoday.OnMay27,2016,PresidentPetroPoroshenkosignedadecreetoimplementaMay20National
SecurityandDefenseCouncilresolutionbarring17Russianreporters,editors,andmediaexecutivesfromenteringUkrainethrough
December31,2017.
UkraineislegitimatelyconcernedabouttheeffectsofRussianpropaganda,butcrackingdownonmediafreedomisamisguided,
inappropriateresponsetowhateverdisagreementtheUkrainiangovernmentmayhavewithRussiasmediacoverageabout
Ukraine,saidTanyaCooper,EuropeandCentralAsiaresearcheratHumanRightsWatch.Targetingjournalistsinthisway
inevitablyencouragescensorship.
Amongthe17areKonstantinErnst,generaldirectorofChannelOne,Russiasmainstate-ownedtelevisionchannel,andMargarita
Simonyan,chiefeditorofRussiasinternationaltelevisionnetworkRT(formerlyRussiaToday)andtheRossiyaSegodnyanews
agency.JournalistsonthelistalsoincludeVladislavFronin,chiefeditoroftheofficialgovernmentnewspaperRossiyskaya
Gazeta,andVitaliLeibin,correspondentatRusskiyReportermagazine.Russiaeitherowns,atleastpartially,orexertssignificant
controloverthemediaoutletslistedinthepresidentialdecree.
Thedecreesaysthatthetargetedjournalistscreaterealandpotentialthreattonationalinterests,nationalsecurity,sovereignty,and
territorialintegrityofUkrainefacilitateterroristactivityandviolatecitizensrightsandfreedomscontributetotheoccupationof
territories,andobstructfullrealizationofrightsandfreedomsbyUkrainiancitizens.
RussiancitizensdonotneedavisatotraveltoUkraine.
Anearlierpresidentialdecree,signedonSeptember16,2015,hadalreadybannedawiderangeofRussianindividualsand
organizationsfromenteringUkraineforayear.Thatlist,compiledbyUkrainesNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,named
388individualsand105legalentitiesdeemedathreattoUkrainessecurity.InadditiontoRussianseniorgovernmentofficials,
parliamentmembers,andrebelleadersoperatingineasternUkraine,thelistincluded41journalistsandbloggersfromseveral
countries,includingRussia,theUnitedKingdom,Germany,andIsrael.TheoriginalversionofthelistincludedthreeBBC
journalists,whosenameswerequicklyremovedafteraninternationaloutcry.
OnMay27,Poroshenkoremoved29peoplefromtheearliersanctionslist,amongthemjournalistsfromIsrael,Estonia,Hungary,
Moldova,andothercountries,andseveralRussianjournalistsfromRIANovosti,RT,andITAR-TASS,whoarebasedoutside
Ukraine.
TheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-operationinEurope(OSCE)representativeonfreedomofthemedia,DunjaMijatovi,
issuedastatementdeploringthesanctionsonjournalists,sayingthatintroducingover-broadrestrictionsthatcurbfreemovement
ofjournalistsisnotthewaytoensuresecurity.
TheMay27decreeinstructsthegovernmentandsecurityservicestoenforcethetravelban.ItsaystheForeignMinistryshould
informofficialsoftheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,andothergovernmentsaboutthenewsanctionsandencouragethemto
considersimilarmeasuresagainstthepeopleonthelist.
UkraineisapartytotheEuropeanConventiononHumanRightsandtheInternationalCovenantonCivilandPoliticalRights,both
ofwhichprotectfreedomofexpression.WhilethejournalistsdonothaveanabsoluterighttoenterUkraine,thebanonentryasa
resultoftheirexerciseoffreespeechandexpressionofopiniondoesconstituteaninterferencewithfreedomofexpressionandis
likelytohaveachillingeffectonotherjournalists.Tobelegitimate,aninterferencewithorrestrictiononfreedomofexpression
mustbeprovidedforinlaw,nondiscriminatory,anddemonstrablynecessarytoprotectalegitimateaim,inamannerthatis
proportionatetoprotectthataim.
Furtherrestrictionsarealsopermittedduringastateofemergencyifacountryhasannouncedaderogationatemporary
suspensionfromcertainofitstreatyobligations.Eventhen,tobelegitimateaderogationmustbespecific,foratemporary
particularperiodoftime,necessarytomeettheexigenciesofthesituation,andsubjecttojudicialreview.Ukrainehasnotmade
anyderogationwithrespecttofreedomofexpressionundereithertreaty.
UkrainesinternationalpartnersshouldprotestthedecreeandurgeKievtorevokeit,Coopersaid.TheEU,US,andothers
needtomakeclearthattheydonotsupportsucharbitrarymeasuresagainstthemediaandencouragePresidentPoroshenkoand
hisgovernmenttorespectmediafreedomeveniftheydisagreewiththecoveragebycertainoutlets.

From:VRT
Subject:Ukrainedeclareswaronjournalism[ED:Again,withoutdebatingtheoverallmeritsofthe
debate,wisewitsaskhowwhatUkiehackshavedone(indefenseofwhattheythoughtwassacredto
them)differsfromwhatSnowdenandAssangehavedone]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
KIEV,UkraineInJuly2014,IwenttoDonetsk,aseparatist-controlledregionineasternUkraine,to
covertheshootingdownofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17.Itwasadangerousplaceatthetime.The
Ukrainianmilitaryandtherebelswereshellingeachother,andtemperamentalmenwithKalashnikovs
whohadbeenknowntokidnapjournalistswereeverywhere.
Likemanyforeignreporters,Iwastheretorelaywhatwashappeningtotheremainsofthedowned
flights298passengersandcrewmembers.BeforeIwenttothecrashsite,Iobtainedaccreditation
fromtheseparatists.ThisdidnotguaranteethatIwouldbesafe,butitwastheonlywaytogetpast
thearmedcheckpoints.
NowUkrainehaslabeledmeanaccompliceinterrorism.
OnMay7,thewebsiteMirotvorets(Peacemaker),courtesyofanonymoushackers,publishedpartof
theseparatistsaccreditationrecords.Myname,emailaddressandphonenumberwereamongthose
ofmorethan4,000journalists,includingfreelancerslikeme,aswellascorrespondentsfromthis
newspaper,Reuters,theBBCandotheroutlets.Wewerecollectivelylabeledterroristcollaborators
forgainingaccreditationfromtheseparatists.Thelistspublishersclaimednottoknowwhatthe
consequenceswouldbeofreleasingthisinformation,butitseemedclearthattheintentwasto
encouragepeopletotakeactionagainstthejournalistsontheirown.
AntonGerashchenko,amemberofUkrainesParliamentandanadvisertotheMinistryofInterior,
praisedthepublicationofthelistandcalledforjournaliststoassistUkraineinitsinformationwar
withRussia.CondemnationofthelistfollowedfromorganizationsincludingtheOrganizationfor
SecurityandCo-operationinEuropeandtheCommitteetoProtectJournalists.Ukraines
ombudsmancalledforthewebsitetobeblocked.Ascriticismbuilt,thepeoplerunningMirotvoretssaid
theywouldtaketheirwebsiteofflineandtheKievprosecutorsofficebegananinvestigationinto
whetherornotthoserunningthesitehadcommittedacrime.
Inresponse,theinteriorminister,ArsenAvakov,declaredhissupportforMirotvoretsandaccused
thosewhocriticizedthepublicationofthelistofharboringseparatistsympathies.His
Facebookpostreceivedover3,000likes,andthepublicationofthelistisstronglysupportedbythe
public.AfteranofficialfromtheMinistryofInformationPolicysaidonTVthatthelistthreatenedthe
livesofjournalistsherboss,YuriyStets,postedanapologyonsocialmedia,sayingthattheofficialdid
notrepresenttheministrysposition.
Emboldenedbythesupport,thewebsiteisnowbackonlineandhaspostedadditionaljournalists
contactinformation.Theeditorsstatedthattheywouldnotlistentothewhimperingaboutfreedom
ofspeech.AnadvisertotheheadoftheUkrainianSecurityServiceannouncedthatthejournalistson
thelistswerebeinginvestigatedaspotentialspies.
Theselistsarenominallyaboutwhohasinteractedwiththeseparatistrebels,buttheycreateawider
andmoredangerousprecedent.Thewebsiteanditssupportersingovernmentaresuggesting
thatjournalistscanbedividedintotwocamps:thosewhosupportthestateandthosewhoareagainst
it,withtheimplicationthatjournalistswhocriticizethegovernmentshouldbesilenced.
Thisisdangerousinanysociety,butespeciallyinUkrainerightnow,wherecriticaljournalismis
especiallynecessary.Fewreformshavegonefullyintoeffectandthecountryhasrecentlytakenahard
turnbacktowardcronyism.PresidentPetroO.Poroshenkoinstalledacloseallyasprimeminister,
breakingthedivisionoflegislativeandexecutivepowerestablishedaftertheMaidanSquareprotests
in2014thatledtotheousterofhispredecessor.Healsonamedacronywithnolawdegreeasgeneral
prosecutor.AscorruptionandnepotismthreatenthehopeofUkrainesrevolution,journalistsarebeing
toldthattheyarehelpingtheenemyjustbydoingtheirjobs.
UkrainehaslongfeltoutgunnedbyRussiaspropagandamachine.Moscowsstate-sponsoredTV
channelsandInternettrollshavetriedtodivideUkraineandturnglobalsentimentagainstit.Kiev
lacksthebudgettomatchthosepropagandaprojects,butmanyUkrainianpublicationsandjournalists
avoidreportingnewsthatlooksbadfortheircountryorcouldserveRussianpropaganda.Ukrainian
officialsrecognizedthisreluctanceasausefulpoliticaltool.Theynowseektoexplainawayany
criticismasRussianhybridwarfare.ThatishowMr.PoroshenkodismissedaNewYorkTimes
editorialcriticizinghisfailuretotacklecorruption.
Intryingtoencouragepatrioticjournalism,inwhichthestatealwaysreceivesthebenefitofthe
doubt,UkrainianofficialsareactuallyfosteringajournalismculturesimilartoRussias.Russia,too,
chastisesreportersandpublicationsthatpublishstoriescriticalofthegovernmentfornotbeing
patriotic.Andthatswhynotmanydosoanymore.Recently,theeditorialstaffofoneofthefew
remainingindependentnewsorganizationsinRussia,RBC,wasdismissedfollowinggovernment
pressure.Therearealsodarkerchaptersofsilencingcriticaljournalists,includingaccusationsof
murder.
MostseniorUkrainianofficialshaveavoidedcommentingonthereleaseofjournalistsnamesand
information.ButtheyshouldnowactinaccordancewiththeWesternvaluesthattheyclaimtobelieve,
andcondemnthedefamationofjournalistsjustforworkinginseparatist-controlledareas.Theymust
alsoensurethattheoffendingwebsiteisshutdownandthattheinvestigationintowhopublishedthe
listresultsincriminalcharges.Thisalonewillnotensurethatthecountrysnewsmediaisfreeandfair,
butitwillhelpsettherighttone.Ukrainemustnotsacrificepressfreedominitsstruggletosurvive
war.
IanBatesonisworkingonabookaboutUkrainianidentityaftertheMaidanrevolution.
FollowTheNewYorkTimesOpinionsectiononFacebookandTwitter,andsignupfortheOpinionToday
newsletter.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/01/201612:10:07AM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject: AXAXAXAXAXA(2)KarinaOrlovwSTASontheAIsite
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/05/31/putin-is-a-local-bully-with-nuclear-weapons/
PutinIsaLocalBullywithNuclearWeapons
StanislavBelkovskyisoneofthemostoutspokenandcontroversialpoliticalexpertsinmodernRussia.Heistheauthorof12books,
includingVladimirPutinsBusiness(2006),whereheestimatedPutinsfortunetobe$40billionatthetimeofpublication.In2004,
hewasapoliticaladvisortotheUkrainianopposition,andheactivelytookpartintheOrangeRevolution.IntheOrange
Revolutionsaftermath,Belkovsky,whoisfluentinbothUkrainianandRussian,foundedtheInstituteofNationalStrategyof
Ukraine.In2013,hepredictedthatViktorYanukovychwouldfleeUkraineandthatvictoryfortheMaidanwasassured.He
regularlyappearsonvariousRussianmediaoutlets,includingEchoofMoscow,Slon,MoskovskyKomsomolets,andthe
independentTV-Dozhdchannel.OurownKarinaOrlovaspokewithhimovertheweekendaboutPutinsgrandstrategy(orlack
thereof),andhowitsplayingoutwithregardstoUkraine.
KarinaOrlovaforTAI:ThereappeartobetwocompetingconventionalwisdomsaboutVladimirPutinhereinWashington.The
firstoneisathatwhateverRussiasPresidentisdoingwhetherheisgettinginvolvedinSyria,orwhetherheisleavingSyria,or
whateverheisdoingineasternUkraineitispartofabiggergamewhichPutinalwayswins.ThereisapresumptionthattheUnited
States,beingledbyBarackObama,isalwaystwostepsbehind,somehowlosingtoPutin.Andthesecondoneistheopposite:It
presumesthatPutin,althoughdangerous,isnotreallywinning,andthathismovesmostlyendinfailure.Sowastherelease
ofUkrainianpilotNadezhdaSavchenkolastweekasmartstrategicmoveinawinninggambit,oryetanotherlossforPutin?
StanislavBelkovsky:Firstofall,IwouldliketopointoutthatbeforeoneconsidersPutineitherawinneroraloser,oneshould
realizewhathisgoalsactuallyare.Forme,itisobviousthathisonlygoalistomaketheWestkindlyaccepthimasanequalandto
startnegotiatingtheworldsfatewithhim.IcallthisOperationForcetheWestUntoLove.Obviously,Putinhasnotachievedthis
goal,soitwouldbefairtosayheisnotexactlywinning.NorisheoutmaneuveringObama.
RegardingNadezhdaSavchenkosrelease,itwasofcoursenotaprisonerswapbetweenthetwocountriesnotevenclose.What
seemstohavehappenedwasthatduringtheNormandyFourlatenightphonetalks[heldonMay23rdEd.]withFrenchPresident
FrancoisHollandeandGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,VladimirPutincametotherealizationthattonothavesanctionstightened
furtherattheveryleastSavchenkoneededtobereleased.
NeitherSavchenkosfate,northefateofthetwoRussianMainIntelligenceDirectorate(GRU)agents,waseverPutinsoverriding
concern.Heneededtomakeamoveaspartofhislong-termOperationofForcingtheWestuntoLove,anditwastimedtomakean
impactbeforetheG7SummitinJapan,notlater.
Atminimum,Savchenkosreleaseisanattempttonottoworsenthesanctionssituation.Atbest,itisanattempttoimproveit,for
instancewithregardstogettingtheRussianeconomysnationalchampionsaccesstoforeignfunds.Thisisofultimate
importancetoRussianbanksandstatecorporations.KO:WhywasshereleasedbeforetheG7SummitinJapan?SB:Putinislooking
totheupcomingEUSummitattheendofJune,whereanextensionofEuropeansanctionsonRussiawillbediscussed.ForRussian
elites,Europeansanctionsarethemostsensitivesubject.ButageneralagendafortheJunemeetingwasbeingdevelopedattheG7
Summit,andthatiswhySavchenkoneededtobereleasedbeforethemeetingatIse-ShimaNationalParkhadstarted.Andsure
enough,onMay26th[thedaySavchenkowasreleased,aswellasthefirstdayofthesummitEd.]Moscowwaslaudedfor
perhapsthefirsttimeforabidingbytheMinskagreements,whichcanbetranslatedfromdiplomaticspeakasthisisfor
Savchenkosrelease.KO:AtwhatstageareRussia-Ukrainerelationsnow?WhatisthestatusoftheWarineasternUkrainetoday?
SB:Thesituationintheself-proclaimedPeoplesRepublicsinDonetskandLuhanskhasfinallygoneTransnistrian.Inother
words,ithasbecomeaproperfrozenconflict,butwithanimportantdistinction:Intermsofmilitaryandpoliticalpower,
Transnistriaisdefactoanindependentstate,whilsttheDonetskandLuhanskPeoplesRepublicsfullyobeyMoscowswillinseveral
keyaspects.
TheMinskagreementswerenothingbutfakeryandbluffingfromthebeginning:theyhavealwaysbeenunimplementable.Or,rather,
theoreticallyimplementable,butonlyiftheKremlinabandonstheDPRandLPRwhichunderPutinsgovernanceislikelytonever
happen.Furthermore,inastateofafrozenconflict,thetwomainconditionsofMinskIIcannotbefulfilled:localelectionsabiding
byUkrainianlawgrantingacertainamountoflocalautonomytotheDonetskandLuhanskregions,andtherestorationoffullborder
controltotheUkrainiangovernmentinKyivthroughouttheconflictarea(clauses9and12).KO:DoesthismeanthatVladimirPutin
hasachievedhisgoalinDonbas?Didhegetwhathewanted?SB:Putinsucceededtactically:Hehassignificantlycomplicated
UkrainesaccessiontoNATO.ButthestrategicgoaltoinclinetheWest,andtheUnitedStatesinparticular,hisway,toholdtalks
directabouttheworldsfate,dividingitintospheresofinfluenceremainsperpetuallyfarfromtheRussianPresidents
grasp.KO:SothisisPutinsfinalgoal?SB:Yes,thisishisfinalgoal.VladimirPutinisaWesternerwhosuffersfrombeingrejected
bytheWest.ButherefusestounderstandandacceptthatanalliancebetweenRussiaandtheWest,ifitistoexist,willhavetobe
builtonthebasisofvalues,notonsomebalanceofmilitaryforceshewingtoanold-fashioned,Stalinistparadigm.Welivein
aworldwheretheStalinsfamousquestionHowmanydivisionsdoesthePopehave?isirrelevant.Weliveinaworld
wheretheStalinsfamousquestionHowmanydivisionsdoesthePopehave?isirrelevant.Softpowerismuchmoreimportant
thenhardpowertoday.RussiaunderPutincanneverwieldanysoftpowerbecausethecountrydoesnotoffer
anysuccessfulmodelsandpatternstotheworld:neitherpolitical,nortechnological,notsocial,norhumanitarian.ThisiswhyRussia
isnotevenaregionalpoweranymore:thereisnotasinglepost-SovietstatewhichwouldvoluntarilyorientitselftowardsMoscow.
AndVladimirPutinissincerelysurprisedthathistechnologiesofmega-corruptionhavenotworkedasexpectedattheendofthe
day.ItseemedtobeworkingquitewellinthetimesofGerhardShroderandSilvioBerlusconi,buthismechanismforthebribingof
Westernpoliticaleliteshassomehowstartedtomalfunctionsincethen.
Putinisnotonlysurprised,hefeelsspurned.HeresentsEuropeandtheU.S.,towhosegoodgracesheis
constantlyaspiring.KO:SoBarackObama,inhisinterviewwiththeAtlantic,flatteredPutinbycallingRussiaaregionalpower?
SB:Yes,ObamasoundedalittlebitflatteringtoPutin,butingeneralheshowedacorrectgraspofthesituationonthewhole.Putin
isdangerous,butonlyasalocalbullywithnuclearweaponsnotasaglobalpowerplayer.KO:LetsturnbacktoRussia-Ukraine
relations.AfterSavchenkowasreleased,UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaid,WewillgetDonbasandCrimeabackjustas
wehavegottenSavchenkoback.TheKremlinsSpokesmanDmitryPeskov,respondingtoPoroshenko,saidIf
[Poroshenko]meanttosaythatheisdeterminedtogetDonbasbackforhumanitarianreasons,wecouldsupportthis.Actually,that
iswhatwehopeforinMoscow.AsforCrimea,wedonotcommentonclaimsonRussianterritories.
HowshouldwereadPeskovswordsaboutDonbas?SB:DmitryPeskovdidnotsayanythingnewinprinciple.TheofficialKremlin
positionhasalwaysbeenthattheDonbasconflictterritoriesareapartofUkraine.Theyjustneedspecialstatusonanumberof
issues,includinglanguage,policing,etc.ButdefactospecialstatusmeansrealandeffectivedependenceonMoscow.KO:But
beforethislateststatement,theKremlinalwaysbroughtupprotectingDonbascitizen,whilethistimePeskovjustbasicallysaidlet
Ukrainianshaveit
SB:Well,thiscouldalsobereadascometoDonbasandtakeitifyoucan.Andthecrucialsubtexthereisthefollowing:Youcant
becauseatthecrucialmomentwewilljustdeployoursoldiersonleaveandourinvisiblefightersinthenecessaryquantityto
frustrateyourattemptstowinitback.KO:DoesKyivwantDonbasbackatall?Orthisfrozenconflictakindofwin-winsituation
forbothsides?SB:IftherewasawaytoinjectatruthserumintoalmostanyUkrainianpolitician(exceptthemostradicalones),he
orshewouldsaythatUkrainedoesnotneedtheDonbas,andthatitismoreofaburdenthananything.ButofficiallyKyivcould
neverrecognizeitsindependence,oratleastnotintheforeseeablefuture.DoingsowouldappeartreasonoustotheUkrainianpeople,
andwouldleadtoadifficultquestioningofwhattheATOanti-terroristoperationintheDonbaswithallitsattendantvictims,was
neededfor.
ButbecauseIamnotaUkrainianpolitician,Icouldanswerthesefatefulquestions.AssoonasDonbasleavesUkraineforgood,the
countrysEuropeantrajectorywouldbecomeguaranteed,andRussiasinfluencewoulddroptoclosetozero.AndtheATOwas
necessarytopreventthespreadofDonbas-likeconflictsintootherUkrainianregions,fromKharkivtoOdessa.Itis
worthrememberingthatinthespringof2014,fatalisticmoodswerewidespreadamongUkrainianelites.Manypeoplewere
expectingRussianmilitariestobreakthecorridortowardsKherson,andthroughtheretowardsCrimeaandTransnistria.TheATO
wasacrucialfactortopreventivelyneutralizesuchascenario.KO:WhocoordinatesRussiaspolicyinUkrainefromtheKremlins
sidetoday?IsitstillViktorMedvedchuk,theformerheadofUkrainianPresidentLeonidKuchmasadministration?SB:InPutins
circle,therearetwomainUkrainepolicycenters,personifiedinVladislavSurkovandViktorMedvedchuk.Andthesetwohave
beenfightingeachotherhard.NeverthelessallthefinaldecisionsarebeingmadeexclusivelybyPutinhimself.KO:Dothesetwo
haverealideologicaldifferencesintheirvision?Oritisjustacabinetfight?SB:Theydo.MedvedchukpushesPutintoamoreactive
interferenceinUkrainianaffairs,includingatthenationalUkrainianlevel.Apparently,itrelatestoMedvedchuksdesiretoreturn
topoliticsinUkrainewithanumberoftrumpcardsinhishands.ItisnotacoincidencethatPutininvitedMedvedchuktothe
KremlinonMay25th,atthemeetingwiththerelativesofthetwoRussianjournalistswhosemurderSavchenkowasconvictedofby
theRussiancourts.Atthatmeeting,MedvedchukwaspresentedasallbutSavchenkosliberator.ViktorMedvedchukisgodfatherto
oneofPutinsdaughters,andisgenerallyaclosefriendtoRussiasPresident.Fromwhatonecansee,relationsbetweenthetwo
remainstrong.
Surkovspositionismoremoderate.HeproposestousetheconflictineasternUkrainetobargainforCrimea,andtoeventually
getKyivsloyaltytoMoscowatleastwhenitcomestoNATOissues.
Putin,ashealwaysdoesinthesesituations,followsbothlinesatonce.Andatthesametime,hefullybelievesthat,asitistoday,
Ukrainewillcrumbleanywayatleasteconomically.Andthenyoudhaveacompletelydifferentconversationonyourhands.The
worldwouldbegMoscowtosaveUkraine,andRussiawouldtradethisforsanctionsliftingandrecognitionofitsclaimsonCrimea.
Iwouldaddthatthemasscorruptionandinefficiencyofpost-MaidanUkrainianauthoritiesactuallyallowsthisfantasyofPutinsto
persist.KO:Thatsamarvelousplan,buthowcouldMoscowpossiblysaveUkraine,ifitneedstobesaveditself?IsPutinthat
ignorantontheperilousstateoftheRussianeconomy?SB:Putindoesnotsufferfromalarmism.Putindoesnotsufferfrom
alarmism.Hehasenoughmoneyonhandinhisvariousstashes.Andbystashes,Imeancashinthebankaccountsofthe
largestRussianoilandgascompanies.Putindoesnotseeadisaster.Heispronetoinductivereasoning,whichimpliesthatifhe
hasovercomedifficultiesinthepast,hewilldosoagaininthefutureaswell.Putinisassuredthathestillhasaccessto
massiveuntappedresources,includingthemostsignificantoneofall:theRussianpeoplesendlesspatience.KO:Savchenkogavea
pressconferencelastweekwhereshesaidUkraine,ifyouneedmetobepresident,Iwillbepresident.Whatareherrealchances?
SB:ForalargepartoftheUkrainianelites,Savchenkoisaproblem.SheisaproblemespeciallyforPetroPoroshenko,becauseshe
isapotentialsourceofpoliticaldestabilizationinthecountry.Sheisapowerfulanti-eliteplayer.KO:Whatareherrelationswiththe
Batkivshina(Fatherland)partyleaderYuliaTimoshenko?[SavchenkoisacurrentmemberoftheUkrainianparliament(Rada)asa
Batkivshinapartymembered.]SB:SavchenkosandTimoshenkosinterestsarenotidentical,buttheirpositionsmightalignonone
point:thehasteningofearlyparliamentaryelections.AssoonasshearrivedattheairportfromRussia,Savchenkoimmediatelytalked
abouthowthenextRadawillhaveitsownheroes.Andtoday,pollsshowthatearlyelectionswouldseeBatkivshinaandthe
OppositionBloc(thesuccessortoYanukovychsPartyofRegions)winbig.PetroPoroshenkosblocwouldhavecomethird,
whilehiscoalitionpartner,thePeoplesFront,wouldnothaveclearedtheminimumtoberepresentedinparliamentat
all.EarlyelectionswouldthereforeleadtoPoroshenkolosingcontrolovertheRada,whichinthecurrentparliamentary-presidential
systeminUkrainemeanslosingsignificantpower.
Ifshewantsto,Savchenkocanplayasignificantroleinhasteningtheseearlyelections.KO:IsSavchenkoadanger,politically,for
YuliaTimoshenko?AndisTimoshenkoadangerforPoroshenko?SB:YuliaTimoshenkoisgenerallyadangerousperson,bothina
goodandabadway.Sheisastrong,charismaticleaderobsessedwithonlyonething:power.Shehasnoideologicalprioritiesor
vectors.In2008-2009,shesignedaconfidentialagreementwithPutinwhilepubliclyremainingtheleaderofpro-Westernandanti-
Kremlinvoters.Sosheisaalwaysadangerbothforherfriendandenemies.
SavchenkoisdangerousforTimoshenkoonlyifshedecidestobreakwithBatkivshinaandTimoshenkoherselfinapublic
way.KO:Inherpress-conferenceSavchenkocalledVladimirPutinahuiloandanit.Doesitmeanthatbyreleasingher,Putinhas
gotanimplacableenemyforlife?SB:PutindoesnothaveanypersonalfeelingsforSavchenko.Forhim,sheisnotahumanbeing
onlyavaluablechitforbargaining.Andthefactshehasalwaysloathedhimisnotsurprisingatall.
KO:ComingbacktoPutinagainforamoment:IsRussiasPresidentadecisivefactororjustanopportunistwhenitcomesto
Europeanpolitics,andmorespecificallytheriseofthefar-right?Therearetwodifferingconventionalwisdomsonthispoint,too.
OnesuggestsheisbringinghisownideologyintoEuropeandtheworldtheotherimplieshehasnoideology,andisonlymotivated
byperpetualself-enrichmentandremaininginpower.SB:Ifwearetalkingaboutideologyinitsclassical,enlightenmentsense,then
no,Putindoesnothaveanyideology.HeisneitheroftheRightnoroftheLeft.HesupportsnotonlyrightwingpartiesintheWest,
butalsoanypoliticianswhomheseestobeatleastpartlyanti-system,suchasGreecesAlexisTsipras.Putinsgoalisto
destabilizepoliticalsystemsintheAnglo-Saxonworld.Inpractice,thismeansheassistsleaderswhodonotfeelboundbypolitical
correctness,andwhocanaffordtodealwithbadguys.
Putinsvisionofglobalaffairscanbedescribedasfollows:Iamagreatleader,Ihaveahugecountrywithnuclearweapons,and
enormousmineralresourcesbehindme,sotheworldshouldtreatmesuitably.LetmegovernthewayIwantanddonttouchmy
richesintheWest,andIwillbeagoodpartner.IllhelpyoufightISISanddealwithmanyotherproblems.
AndPutinispronetoseeallthedevelopmentsinEuropeintermsofhisownvisions.ThereferendumintheNetherlandsonUkraine?
Well,itshowseveryoneisfedupbyUkraine,orsoPutinthinks.Heimagineshispersonaltriumphisnear.KO:Soheisnotthe
decider,butanopportunist?SB:Anopportunistwhoconsidershimselfthedecider,Iwouldsay.
Senttime: 06/01/201610:44:47AM
FW:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeatJapan---StalinDid[OH
Subject: BOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TOSNOWDENORNOTTOSNOWDEN]
Ukraine:17...
Sent:Wednesday,June01,201610:15AM
Subject:Fwd:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeatJapan---StalinDid
[OHBOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TOSNOWDENORNOTTO
SNOWDEN]Ukraine:17...
Subject:[CLEARINGTHEMEMDAYWEEKENDLIBRARY][TONUKEORNOTTONUKE][1]TheBombDidntBeat
Japan---StalinDid[OHBOY!!][2]TestedbyRussia['sNew'NukeUse'Doctrine],NATOStrugglestoStayCredible..[TO
SNOWDENORNOTTOSNOWDEN]Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBannedNYT:Ukrainedeclareswaronjournalism
[Gottaluvthetitle!!ADOUBLEOHBOY!---WITHANYTDURANTYONTOP!!!]
TO NUKE OR NOT TO NUKE
From:hunter@
Subject:TheBomb[Read:US]DidntBeatJapan---StalinDid[ED:SomeoneisnolongerjustrewritingUkrainian
historylookbelowatthebutcheryinflictedonUShistory.ThesacrificesofAmericansfromGuadalcanaltoIwoJima
orfromMidwaytoLeyteGulforfromDoolittle'sRaidtotheEnolaGayFlightwereallfornaughtStalin'sweeklong
campaignwasallittook]
StillupontheFP'memorablearticles'site---MemorialDay2016:http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/05/30/the-bomb-didnt-beat-
japan-stalin-did/
TheBombDidntBeatJapanStalinDid
Have70yearsofnuclearpolicybeenbasedonalie?
BYWARDWILSON
TheU.S.useofnuclearweaponsagainstJapanduringWorldWarIIhaslongbeenasubjectof
emotionaldebate.Initially,fewquestionedPresidentTrumansdecisiontodroptwoatomicbombs,on
HiroshimaandNagasaki.But,in1965,historianGarAlperovitzarguedthat,althoughthebombsdid
forceanimmediateendtothewar,Japansleadershadwantedtosurrenderanywayandlikelywould
havedonesobeforetheAmericaninvasionplannedforNovember1.Theirusewas,therefore,
unnecessary.Obviously,ifthebombingswerentnecessarytowinthewar,thenbombingHiroshimaand
Nagasakiwaswrong.Inthe48yearssince,manyothershavejoinedthefray:someechoingAlperovitz
anddenouncingthebombings,othersrejoininghotlythatthebombingsweremoral,necessary,andlife-
saving.
Bothschoolsofthought,however,assumethatthebombingofHiroshimaandNagasakiwithnew,more
powerfulweaponsdidcoerceJapanintosurrenderingonAugust9.Theyfailtoquestiontheutilityof
thebombinginthefirstplacetoask,inessence,diditwork?Theorthodoxviewisthat,yes,ofcourse,
itworked.TheUnitedStatesbombedHiroshimaonAugust6andNagasakionAugust9,whenthe
Japanesefinallysuccumbedtothethreatoffurthernuclearbombardmentandsurrendered.The
supportforthisnarrativerunsdeep.Buttherearethreemajorproblemswithit,and,takentogether,
theysignificantlyunderminethetraditionalinterpretationoftheJapanesesurrender.
TheUnitedStatesofPoliticallyCrazy
Who'stheWorstPresidentialCandidateinU.S.History?
PromotedBy
Timing
Thefirstproblemwiththetraditionalinterpretationistiming.Anditisaseriousproblem.The
traditionalinterpretationhasasimpletimeline:TheU.S.ArmyAirForcebombsHiroshimawitha
nuclearweapononAugust6,threedayslatertheybombNagasakiwithanother,andonthenextdaythe
Japanesesignaltheirintentiontosurrender.*OnecanhardlyblameAmericannewspapersforrunning
headlineslike:PeaceinthePacific:OurBombDidIt!
WhenthestoryofHiroshimaistoldinmostAmericanhistories,thedayofthebombingAugust6
servesasthenarrativeclimax.Alltheelementsofthestorypointforwardtothatmoment:thedecision
tobuildabomb,thesecretresearchatLosAlamos,thefirstimpressivetest,andthefinalculminationat
Hiroshima.Itistold,inotherwords,asastoryabouttheBomb.ButyoucantanalyzeJapansdecision
tosurrenderobjectivelyinthecontextofthestoryoftheBomb.CastingitasthestoryoftheBomb
alreadypresumesthattheBombsroleiscentral.
ViewedfromtheJapaneseperspective,themostimportantdayinthatsecondweekofAugustwasnt
August6butAugust9.ThatwasthedaythattheSupremeCouncilmetforthefirsttimeinthewar
todiscussunconditionalsurrender.TheSupremeCouncilwasagroupofsixtopmembersofthe
governmentasortofinnercabinetthateffectivelyruledJapanin1945.Japansleadershadnot
seriouslyconsideredsurrenderingpriortothatday.Unconditionalsurrender(whattheAllieswere
demanding)wasabitterpilltoswallow.TheUnitedStatesandGreatBritainwerealreadyconvening
warcrimestrialsinEurope.Whatiftheydecidedtoputtheemperorwhowasbelievedtobedivine
ontrial?Whatiftheygotridoftheemperorandchangedtheformofgovernmententirely?Eventhough
thesituationwasbadinthesummerof1945,theleadersofJapanwerenotwillingtoconsidergivingup
theirtraditions,theirbeliefs,ortheirwayoflife.UntilAugust9.Whatcouldhavehappenedthatcaused
themtososuddenlyanddecisivelychangetheirminds?Whatmadethemsitdowntoseriouslydiscuss
surrenderforthefirsttimeafter14yearsofwar?
ItcouldnothavebeenNagasaki.ThebombingofNagasakioccurredinthelatemorningofAugust9,
aftertheSupremeCouncilhadalreadybegunmeetingtodiscusssurrender,andwordofthebombing
onlyreachedJapansleadersintheearlyafternoonafterthemeetingoftheSupremeCouncilhad
beenadjournedindeadlockandthefullcabinethadbeencalledtotakeupthediscussion.Basedon
timingalone,Nagasakicanthavebeenwhatmotivatedthem.
Hiroshimaisntaverygoodcandidateeither.Itcame74hoursmorethanthreedaysearlier.What
kindofcrisistakesthreedaystounfold?Thehallmarkofacrisisisasenseofimpendingdisasterandthe
overwhelmingdesiretotakeactionnow.HowcouldJapansleadershavefeltthatHiroshimatouched
offacrisisandyetnotmeettotalkabouttheproblemforthreedays?
PresidentJohnF.Kennedywassittingupinbedreadingthemorningpapersatabout8:45amon
October16,1962whenMcGeorgeBundy,hisnationalsecurityadvisor,cameintoinformhimthatthe
SovietUnionwassecretlyputtingnuclearmissilesinCuba.Withintwohoursandforty-fiveminutesa
specialcommitteehadbeencreated,itsmembersselected,contacted,broughttotheWhiteHouse,and
wereseatedaroundthecabinettabletodiscusswhatshouldbedone.
PresidentHarryTrumanwasvacationinginIndependence,MissourionJune25,1950whenNorth
Koreasentitstroopsacrossthe38thparallel,invadingSouthKorea.SecretaryofStateAchesoncalled
TrumanthatSaturdaymorningtogivehimthenews.Within24hours,Trumanhadflownhalfway
acrosstheUnitedStatesandwasseatedatBlairHouse(theWhiteHousewasundergoingrenovations)
withhistopmilitaryandpoliticaladvisorstalkingaboutwhattodo.
EvenGeneralGeorgeBrintonMcClellantheUnioncommanderoftheArmyofthePotomacin1863
duringtheAmericanCivilWar,ofwhomPresidentLincolnsaidsadly,Hesgottheslowswasted
only12hourswhenhewasgivenacapturedcopyofGeneralRobertE.Leesordersfortheinvasionof
Maryland.
Theseleadersrespondedasleadersinanycountrywouldtotheimperativecallthatacrisiscreates.
Theyeachtookdecisivestepsinashortperiodoftime.Howcanwesquarethissortofbehaviorwiththe
actionsofJapansleaders?IfHiroshimareallytouchedoffacrisisthateventuallyforcedtheJapaneseto
surrenderafterfightingfor14years,whydidittakethemthreedaystositdowntodiscussit?
Onemightarguethatthedelayisperfectlylogical.Perhapstheyonlycametorealizetheimportanceof
thebombingslowly.Perhapstheydidntknowitwasanuclearweaponandwhentheydidrealizeitand
understoodtheterribleeffectssuchaweaponcouldhave,theynaturallyconcludedtheyhadto
surrender.Unfortunately,thisexplanationdoesntsquarewiththeevidence.
First,HiroshimasgovernorreportedtoTokyoontheverydayHiroshimawasbombedthataboutathird
ofthepopulationhadbeenkilledintheattackandthattwothirdsofthecityhadbeendestroyed.This
informationdidntchangeoverthenextseveraldays.Sotheoutcometheendresultofthebombing
wasclearfromthebeginning.Japansleadersknewroughlytheoutcomeoftheattackonthefirstday,
yettheystilldidnotact.
Second,thepreliminaryreportpreparedbytheArmyteamthatinvestigatedtheHiroshimabombing,
theonethatgavedetailsaboutwhathadhappenedthere,wasnotdelivereduntilAugust10.Itdidnt
reachTokyo,inotherwords,untilafterthedecisiontosurrenderhadalreadybeentaken.Althoughtheir
verbalreportwasdelivered(tothemilitary)onAugust8,thedetailsofthebombingwerenotavailable
untiltwodayslater.Thedecisiontosurrenderwasthereforenotbasedonadeepappreciationofthe
horroratHiroshima.
Third,theJapanesemilitaryunderstood,atleastinaroughway,whatnuclearweaponswere.Japan
hadanuclearweaponsprogram.Severalofthemilitarymenmentionthefactthatitwasanuclear
weaponthatdestroyedHiroshimaintheirdiaries.GeneralAnamiKorechika,minsterofwar,evenwent
toconsultwiththeheadoftheJapanesenuclearweaponsprogramonthenightofAugust7.Theidea
thatJapansleadersdidnt
knowaboutnuclearweaponsdoesntholdup.
Finally,oneotherfactabouttimingcreatesastrikingproblem.OnAugust8,ForeignMinisterTogo
ShigenoriwenttoPremierSuzukiKantaroandaskedthattheSupremeCouncilbeconvenedtodiscuss
thebombingofHiroshima,butitsmembersdeclined.Sothecrisisdidntgrowdaybydayuntilitfinally
burstintofullbloomonAugust9.AnyexplanationoftheactionsofJapansleadersthatreliesonthe
shockofthebombingofHiroshimahastoaccountforthefactthattheyconsideredameetingto
discussthebombingonAugust8,madeajudgmentthatitwastoounimportant,andthensuddenly
decidedtomeettodiscusssurrendertheverynextday.Eithertheysuccumbedtosomesortofgroup
schizophrenia,orsomeothereventwastherealmotivationtodiscusssurrender.
Scale
Historically,theuseoftheBombmayseemlikethemostimportantdiscreteeventofthewar.Fromthe
contemporaryJapaneseperspective,however,itmightnothavebeensoeasytodistinguishtheBomb
fromotherevents.Itis,afterall,difficulttodistinguishasingledropofraininthemidstofahurricane.
Inthesummerof1945,theU.S.ArmyAirForcecarriedoutoneofthemostintensecampaignsofcity
destructioninthehistoryoftheworld.Sixty-eightcitiesinJapanwereattackedandallofthemwere
eitherpartiallyorcompletelydestroyed.Anestimated1.7millionpeopleweremadehomeless,300,000
werekilled,and750,000werewounded.Sixty-sixoftheseraidswerecarriedoutwithconventional
bombs,twowithatomicbombs.Thedestructioncausedbyconventionalattackswashuge.Nightafter
night,allsummerlong,citieswouldgoupinsmoke.Inthemidstofthiscascadeofdestruction,itwould
notbesurprisingifthisorthatindividualattackfailedtomakemuchofanimpressionevenifitwas
carriedoutwitharemarkablenewtypeofweapon.
AB-29bomberflyingfromtheMarianaIslandscouldcarrydependingonthelocationofthetarget
andthealtitudeofattacksomewherebetween16,000and20,000poundsofbombs.Atypicalraid
consistedof500bombers.Thismeansthatthetypicalconventionalraidwasdropping4to5kilotonsof
bombsoneachcity.(Akilotonisathousandtonsandisthestandardmeasureoftheexplosivepowerof
anuclearweapon.TheHiroshimabombmeasured16.5kilotons,theNagasakibomb20kilotons.)Given
thatmanybombsspreadthedestructionevenly(andthereforemoreeffectively),whileasingle,more
powerfulbombwastesmuchofitspoweratthecenteroftheexplosionre-bouncingtherubble,asit
wereitcouldbearguedthatsomeoftheconventionalraidsapproachedthedestructionofthetwo
atomicbombings.
Thefirstoftheconventionalraids,anightattackonTokyoonMarch9-10,1945,remainsthesingle
mostdestructiveattackonacityinthehistoryofwar.Somethinglike16squaremilesofthecitywere
burnedout.Anestimated120,000Japaneselosttheirlivesthesinglehighestdeathtollofany
bombingattackonacity.
Weoftenimagine,becauseofthewaythestoryistold,thatthebombingofHiroshimawasfarworse.
Weimaginethatthenumberofpeoplekilledwasoffthecharts.Butifyougraphthenumberofpeople
killedinall68citiesbombedinthesummerof1945,youfindthatHiroshimawassecondintermsof
civiliandeaths.Ifyouchartthenumberofsquaremilesdestroyed,youfindthatHiroshimawasfourth.
Ifyouchartthepercentageofthecitydestroyed,Hiroshimawas17th.Hiroshimawasclearlywithinthe
parametersoftheconventionalattackscarriedoutthatsummer.
Fromourperspective,Hiroshimaseemssingular,extraordinary.Butifyouputyourselfintheshoesof
JapansleadersinthethreeweeksleadinguptotheattackonHiroshima,thepictureisconsiderably
different.IfyouwereoneofthekeymembersofJapansgovernmentinlateJulyandearlyAugust,your
experienceofcitybombingwouldhavebeensomethinglikethis:OnthemorningofJuly17,youwould
havebeengreetedbyreportsthatduringthenightfourcitieshadbeenattacked:Oita,Hiratsuka,
Numazu,andKuwana.Ofthese,OitaandHiratsukaweremorethan50percentdestroyed.Kuwanawas
morethan75percentdestroyedandNumazuwashitevenmoreseverely,withsomethinglike90percent
ofthecityburnedtotheground.
Threedayslateryouhavewokentofindthatthreemorecitieshadbeenattacked.Fukuiwasmorethan
80percentdestroyed.Aweeklaterandthreemorecitieshavebeenattackedduringthenight.Twodays
laterandsixmorecitieswereattackedinonenight,includingIchinomiya,whichwas75percent
destroyed.OnAugust2,youwouldhavearrivedattheofficetoreportsthatfourmorecitieshavebeen
attacked.AndthereportswouldhaveincludedtheinformationthatToyama(roughlythesizeof
Chattanooga,Tennesseein1945),hadbeen99.5percentdestroyed.Virtuallytheentirecityhadbeen
leveled.Fourdayslaterandfourmorecitieshavebeenattacked.OnAugust6,onlyonecity,Hiroshima,
wasattackedbutreportssaythatthedamagewasgreatandanewtypebombwasused.Howmuch
wouldthisonenewattackhavestoodoutagainstthebackgroundofcitydestructionthathadbeen
goingonforweeks?
InthethreeweekspriortoHiroshima,26citieswereattackedbytheU.S.ArmyAirForce.Ofthese,
eightoralmostathirdwereascompletelyormorecompletelydestroyedthanHiroshima(interms
ofthepercentageofthecitydestroyed).ThefactthatJapanhad68citiesdestroyedinthesummerof
1945posesaseriouschallengeforpeoplewhowanttomakethebombingofHiroshimathecauseof
Japanssurrender.Thequestionis:Iftheysurrenderedbecauseacitywasdestroyed,whydidntthey
surrenderwhenthoseother66citiesweredestroyed?
IfJapansleadersweregoingtosurrenderbecauseofHiroshimaandNagasaki,youwouldexpectto
findthattheycaredaboutthebombingofcitiesingeneral,thatthecityattacksputpressureonthemto
surrender.Butthisdoesntappeartobeso.TwodaysafterthebombingofTokyo,retiredForeign
MinisterShideharaKijuroexpressedasentimentthatwasapparentlywidelyheldamongJapanese
high-rankingofficialsatthetime.Shideharaopinedthatthepeoplewouldgraduallygetusedtobeing
bombeddaily.Intimetheirunityandresolvewouldgrowstronger.Inalettertoafriendhesaiditwas
importantforcitizenstoendurethesufferingbecauseevenifhundredsofthousandsofnoncombatants
arekilled,injured,orstarved,evenifmillionsofbuildingsaredestroyedorburned,additionaltimewas
neededfordiplomacy.ItisworthrememberingthatShideharawasamoderate.
AtthehighestlevelsofgovernmentintheSupremeCouncilattitudeswereapparentlythesame.
AlthoughtheSupremeCouncildiscussedtheimportanceoftheSovietUnionremainingneutral,they
didnthaveafull-dressdiscussionabouttheimpactofcitybombing.Intherecordsthathavebeen
preserved,citybombingdoesntevengetmentionedduringSupremeCouncildiscussionsexceptontwo
occasions:onceinpassinginMay1945andonceduringthewide-rangingdiscussiononthenightof
August9.Basedontheevidence,itisdifficulttomakeacasethatJapansleadersthoughtthatcity
bombingcomparedtotheotherpressingmattersinvolvedinrunningawarhadmuchsignificance
atall.
GeneralAnamionAugust13remarkedthattheatomicbombingswerenomoremenacingthanthefire-
bombingthatJapanhadenduredformonths.IfHiroshimaandNagasakiwerenoworsethanthefire
bombings,andifJapansleadersdidnotconsiderthemimportantenoughtodiscussindepth,howcan
HiroshimaandNagasakihavecoercedthemtosurrender?
StrategicSignificance
IftheJapanesewerenotconcernedwithcitybombingingeneralortheatomicbombingofHiroshima
inparticular,whatweretheyconcernedwith?Theanswer
issimple:theSovietUnion.
TheJapanesewereinarelativelydifficultstrategicsituation.Theywerenearingtheendofawarthey
werelosing.Conditionswerebad.TheArmy,however,wasstillstrongandwell-supplied.Nearly4
millionmenwereunderarmsand1.2millionofthosewereguardingJapanshomeislands.
EventhemosthardlineleadersinJapansgovernmentknewthatthewarcouldnotgoon.Thequestion
wasnotwhethertocontinue,buthowtobringthewartoacloseunderthebesttermspossible.The
Allies(theUnitedStates,GreatBritain,andotherstheSovietUnion,remember,wasstillneutral)
weredemandingunconditionalsurrender.Japansleadershopedthattheymightbeabletofigureout
awaytoavoidwarcrimestrials,keeptheirformofgovernment,andkeepsomeoftheterritoriestheyd
conquered:Korea,Vietnam,Burma,partsofMalaysiaandIndonesia,alargeportionofeasternChina,
andnumerousislandsinthePacific.
Theyhadtwoplansforgettingbettersurrendertermstheyhad,inotherwords,twostrategicoptions.
Thefirstwasdiplomatic.Japanhadsignedafive-yearneutralitypactwiththeSovietsinAprilof1941,
whichwouldexpirein1946.AgroupconsistingmostlyofcivilianleadersandledbyForeignMinister
TogoShigenorihopedthatStalinmightbeconvincedtomediateasettlementbetweentheUnitedStates
anditsalliesontheonehand,andJapanontheother.Eventhoughthisplanwasalongshot,it
reflectedsoundstrategicthinking.Afterall,itwouldbeintheSovietUnionsinteresttomakesurethat
thetermsofthesettlementwerenottoofavorabletotheUnitedStates:anyincreaseinU.S.influence
andpowerinAsiawouldmeanadecreaseinRussianpowerandinfluence.
Thesecondplanwasmilitary,andmostofitsproponents,ledbytheArmyMinisterAnamiKorechika,
weremilitarymen.TheyhopedtouseImperialArmygroundtroopstoinflicthighcasualtiesonU.S.
forceswhentheyinvaded.Iftheysucceeded,theyfelt,theymightbeabletogettheUnitedStatesto
offerbetterterms.Thisstrategywasalsoalongshot.TheUnitedStatesseemeddeeplycommittedto
unconditionalsurrender.Butsincetherewas,infact,concerninU.S.militarycirclesthatthecasualties
inaninvasionwouldbeprohibitive,theJapanesehighcommandsstrategywasnotentirelyoffthe
mark.
OnewaytogaugewhetheritwasthebombingofHiroshimaortheinvasionanddeclarationofwarby
theSovietUnionthatcausedJapanssurrenderistocomparethewayinwhichthesetwoeventsaffected
thestrategicsituation.AfterHiroshimawasbombedonAugust8,bothoptionswerestillalive.Itwould
stillhavebeenpossibletoaskStalintomediate(andTakagisdiaryentriesfromAugust8showthatat
leastsomeofJapansleaderswerestillthinkingabouttheefforttogetStalininvolved).Itwouldalso
stillhavebeenpossibletotrytofightonelastdecisivebattleandinflictheavycasualties.Thedestruction
ofHiroshimahaddonenothingtoreducethepreparednessofthetroopsduginonthebeachesof
Japanshomeislands.Therewasnowonefewercitybehindthem,buttheywerestilldugin,theystill
hadammunition,andtheirmilitarystrengthhadnotbeendiminishedinanyimportantway.Bombing
HiroshimadidnotforecloseeitherofJapansstrategicoptions.
TheimpactoftheSovietdeclarationofwarandinvasionofManchuriaandSakhalinIslandwasquite
different,however.OncetheSovietUnionhaddeclaredwar,Stalincouldnolongeractasamediator
hewasnowabelligerent.SothediplomaticoptionwaswipedoutbytheSovietmove.Theeffectonthe
militarysituationwasequallydramatic.MostofJapansbesttroopshadbeenshiftedtothesouthern
partofthehomeislands.Japansmilitaryhadcorrectlyguessedthatthelikelyfirsttargetofan
AmericaninvasionwouldbethesouthernmostislandofKyushu.TheonceproudKwangtungarmyin
Manchuria,forexample,wasashellofitsformerselfbecauseitsbestunitshadbeenshiftedawayto
defendJapanitself.WhentheRussiansinvadedManchuria,theyslicedthroughwhathadoncebeenan
elitearmyandmanyRussianunitsonlystoppedwhentheyranoutofgas.TheSoviet16thArmy
100,000stronglaunchedaninvasionofthesouthernhalfofSakhalinIsland.Theirorderswereto
mopupJapaneseresistancethere,andthenwithin10to14daysbepreparedtoinvadeHokkaido,
thenorthernmostofJapanshomeislands.TheJapaneseforcetaskedwithdefendingHokkaido,the5th
AreaArmy,wasunderstrengthattwodivisionsandtwobrigades,andwasinfortifiedpositionsonthe
eastsideoftheisland.TheSovietplanofattackcalledforaninvasionofHokkaidofromthewest.
Itdidnttakeamilitarygeniustoseethat,whileitmightbepossibletofightadecisivebattleagainstone
greatpowerinvadingfromonedirection,itwouldnotbepossibletofightofftwogreatpowersattacking
fromtwodifferentdirections.TheSovietinvasioninvalidatedthemilitarysdecisivebattlestrategy,just
asitinvalidatedthediplomaticstrategy.Atasinglestroke,allofJapansoptionsevaporated.TheSoviet
invasionwasstrategicallydecisiveitforeclosedbothofJapansoptionswhilethebombingof
Hiroshima(whichforeclosedneither)wasnot.
TheSovietdeclarationofwaralsochangedthecalculationofhowmuchtimewasleftformaneuver.
JapaneseintelligencewaspredictingthatU.S.forcesmightnotinvadeformonths.Sovietforces,onthe
otherhand,couldbeinJapanproperinaslittleas10days.TheSovietinvasionmadeadecisionon
endingthewarextremelytimesensitive.
AndJapansleadershadreachedthisconclusionsomemonthsearlier.InameetingoftheSupreme
CouncilinJune1945,theysaidthatSovietentryintothewarwoulddeterminethefateoftheEmpire.
ArmyDeputyChiefofStaffKawabesaid,inthatsamemeeting,Theabsolutemaintenanceofpeacein
ourrelationswiththeSovietUnionisimperativeforthecontinuationofthewar.
Japansleadersconsistentlydisplayeddisinterestinthecitybombingthatwaswreckingtheircities.And
whilethismayhavebeenwrongwhenthebombingbeganinMarchof1945,bythetimeHiroshimawas
hit,theywerecertainlyrighttoseecitybombingasanunimportantsideshow,intermsofstrategic
impact.WhenTrumanfamouslythreatenedtovisitarainofruinonJapanesecitiesifJapandidnot
surrender,fewpeopleintheUnitedStatesrealizedthattherewasverylittlelefttodestroy.ByAugust7,
whenTrumansthreatwasmade,only10citieslargerthan100,000peopleremainedthathadnot
alreadybeenbombed.OnceNagasakiwasattackedonAugust9,onlyninecitieswereleft.Fourofthose
wereonthenorthernmostislandofHokkaido,whichwasdifficulttobombbecauseofthedistancefrom
TinianIslandwhereAmericanplaneswerebased.Kyoto,theancientcapitalofJapan,hadbeen
removedfromthetargetlistbySecretaryofWarHenryStimsonbecauseofitsreligiousandsymbolic
importance.SodespitethefearsomesoundofTrumansthreat,afterNagasakiwasbombedonlyfour
majorcitiesremainedwhichcouldreadilyhavebeenhitwithatomicweapons.
ThethoroughnessandextentoftheU.S.ArmyAirForcescampaignofcitybombingcanbegaugedby
thefactthattheyhadrunthroughsomanyofJapanscitiesthattheywerereducedtobombingcities
of30,000peopleorfewer.Inthemodernworld,30,000isnomorethanalargetown.
Ofcourseitwouldalwayshavebeenpossibletore-bombcitiesthathadalreadybeenbombedwith
firebombs.Butthesecitieswere,onaverage,already50percentdestroyed.OrtheUnitedStatescould
havebombedsmallercitieswithatomicweapons.Therewere,however,onlysixsmallercities(with
populationsbetween30,000and100,000)whichhadnotalreadybeenbombed.GiventhatJapanhad
alreadyhadmajorbombingdamagedoneto68cities,and
had,forthemostpart,shruggeditoff,itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatJapansleaderswere
unimpressedwiththethreatoffurtherbombing.Itwasnotstrategicallycompelling.
AConvenientStory
Despitetheexistenceofthesethreepowerfulobjections,thetraditionalinterpretationstillretainsa
strongholdonmanypeoplesthinking,particularlyintheUnitedStates.Thereisrealresistanceto
lookingatthefacts.Butperhapsthisshouldnotbesurprising.Itisworthremindingourselveshow
emotionallyconvenientthetraditionalexplanationofHiroshimaisbothforJapanandtheUnited
States.Ideascanhavepersistencebecausetheyaretrue,butunfortunately,theycanalsopersistbecause
theyareemotionallysatisfying:Theyfillanimportantpsychicneed.Forexample,attheendofthewar
thetraditionalinterpretationofHiroshimahelpedJapansleadersachieveanumberofimportant
politicalaims,bothdomesticandinternational.
Putyourselfintheshoesoftheemperor.Youvejustledyourcountrythroughadisastrouswar.The
economyisshattered.Eightypercentofyourcitieshavebeenbombedandburned.TheArmyhasbeen
pummeledinastringofdefeats.TheNavyhasbeendecimatedandconfinedtoport.Starvationis
looming.Thewar,inshort,hasbeenacatastropheand,worstofall,youvebeenlyingtoyourpeople
abouthowbadthesituationreallyis.Theywillbeshockedbynewsofsurrender.Sowhichwouldyou
ratherdo?Admitthatyoufailedbadly?Issueastatementthatsaysthatyoumiscalculated
spectacularly,maderepeatedmistakes,anddidenormousdamagetothenation?Orwouldyourather
blamethelossonanamazingscientificbreakthroughthatnoonecouldhavepredicted?Atasingle
stroke,blamingthelossofthewarontheatomicbombsweptallthemistakesandmisjudgmentsofthe
warundertherug.TheBombwastheperfectexcuseforhavinglostthewar.Noneedtoapportion
blamenocourtofenquiryneedbeheld.Japansleaderswereabletoclaimtheyhaddonetheirbest.So,
atthemostgeneralleveltheBombservedtodeflectblamefromJapansleaders.
ButattributingJapansdefeattotheBombalsoservedthreeotherspecificpoliticalpurposes.First,it
helpedtopreservethelegitimacyoftheemperor.Ifthewarwaslostnotbecauseofmistakesbut
becauseoftheenemysunexpectedmiracleweapon,thentheinstitutionoftheemperormightcontinue
tofindsupportwithinJapan.
Second,itappealedtointernationalsympathy.Japanhadwagedwaraggressively,andwithparticular
brutalitytowardconqueredpeoples.Itsbehaviorwaslikelytobecondemnedbyothernations.Being
abletorecastJapanasavictimizednationonethathadbeenunfairlybombedwithacrueland
horrifyinginstrumentofwarwouldhelptooffsetsomeofthemorallyrepugnantthingsJapans
militaryhaddone.DrawingattentiontotheatomicbombingshelpedtopaintJapaninamore
sympatheticlightanddeflectsupportforharshpunishment.
Finally,sayingthattheBombwonthewarwouldpleaseJapansAmericanvictors.TheAmerican
occupationdidnotofficiallyendinJapanuntil1952,andduringthattimetheUnitedStateshadthe
powertochangeorremakeJapanesesocietyastheysawfit.Duringtheearlydaysoftheoccupation,
manyJapaneseofficialsworriedthattheAmericansintendedtoabolishtheinstitutionoftheemperor.
Andtheyhadanotherworry.ManyofJapanstopgovernmentofficialsknewthattheymightfacewar
crimestrials(thewarcrimestrialsagainstGermanysleaderswerealreadyunderwayinEuropewhen
Japansurrendered).JapanesehistorianAsadaSadaohassaidthatinmanyofthepostwarinterviews
JapaneseofficialswereobviouslyanxioustopleasetheirAmericanquestioners.IftheAmericans
wantedtobelievethattheBombwonthewar,whydisappointthem?
AttributingtheendofthewartotheatomicbombservedJapansinterestsinmultipleways.Butitalso
servedU.S.interests.IftheBombwonthewar,thentheperceptionofU.S.militarypowerwouldbe
enhanced,U.S.diplomaticinfluenceinAsiaandaroundtheworldwouldincrease,andU.S.security
wouldbestrengthened.The$2billionspenttobuilditwouldnothavebeenwasted.If,ontheother
hand,theSovietentryintothewarwaswhatcausedJapantosurrender,thentheSovietscouldclaim
thattheywereabletodoinfourdayswhattheUnitedStateswasunabletodoinfouryears,andthe
perceptionofSovietmilitarypowerandSovietdiplomaticinfluencewouldbeenhanced.Andoncethe
ColdWarwasunderway,assertingthattheSovietentryhadbeenthedecisivefactorwouldhavebeen
tantamounttogivingaidandcomforttotheenemy.
Itistroublingtoconsider,giventhequestionsraisedhere,thattheevidenceofHiroshimaandNagasaki
isattheheartofeverythingwethinkaboutnuclearweapons.Thiseventisthebedrockofthecasefor
theimportanceofnuclearweapons.Itiscrucialtotheiruniquestatus,thenotionthatthenormalrules
donotapplytonuclearweapons.Itisanimportantmeasureofnuclearthreats:Trumansthreattovisit
arainofruinonJapanwasthefirstexplicitnuclearthreat.Itiskeytotheauraofenormouspower
thatsurroundstheweaponsandmakesthemsoimportantininternationalrelations.
ButwhatarewetomakeofallthoseconclusionsifthetraditionalstoryofHiroshimaiscalledinto
doubt?Hiroshimaisthecenter,thepointfromwhichallotherclaimsandassertionsradiateout.Yetthe
storywehavebeentellingourselvesseemsprettyfarremovedfromthefacts.Whatarewetothinkabout
nuclearweaponsifthisenormousfirstaccomplishmentthemiracleofJapanssuddensurrender
turnsouttobeamyth?
Photocredit:AFP/GettyImages
*Correction:ThisarticleoriginallyreferredtotheU.S.AirForce,insteadoftheU.S.ArmyAirForce.
From:hunter@
Subject:TestedbyRussia,NATOStrugglestoStayCredible[ED:Americanshavingplayedwithnukeoptionstostop
aWWapparentlycontinuesto'sethaironfair'theRussiansincorporating'nukeoptions'intheirnewmilitary
doctrinegetsablandparagraph]
KEYQUOTE:
Still,thereisanothertroublingRussia-relatedissueforNATOhowtodealwithanewRussianmilitarydoctrinethat
considerstheutilityoftacticalnuclearweaponsatthebeginningofaconflict,asadeterrentagainstanadversary
retakingterritory,followedbywhatplannerscallaquickde-escalation.

TestedbyRussia,NATOStrugglestoStay
Credible
BySTEVENERLANGERMAY31,2016
Save
Photo
GeorgiansoldiersduringajointNATOmilitaryexercisewithAmericanandBritishservicemembersatthe
VazianimilitarybaseoutsideTbilisiinMay.CreditZurabKurtsikidze/EuropeanPressphotoAgency
BRUSSELSSixweeksbeforeacriticalsummitmeetingaimedatbolsteringNATOsdeterrence
againstaresurgentRussia,theallianceisfacingalonglistofchallenges.Thefirstistofindacountryto
leadthelastoffourmilitaryunitstobedeployedinPolandandthethreeBalticnations.
Butthat,analystssay,couldbetheleastofitsproblems.
SecurityconcernsareashighnowastheyhavebeensincetheendoftheColdWar.Astheimmigration
crisishasstrainedrelationswithintheContinent,anxietieshavebeenheightenedbyRussianmilitary
offensivesinCrimeaandeasternUkraine,andabombingcampaigninSyriathathasdemonstrated
Moscowsrapidlyincreasingcapabilities.Lately,Russiahastalkedopenlyabouttheutilityof
tacticalnuclearweapons.
Despitethegrowingthreats,manyEuropeancountriesstillresiststrongmeasures
tostrengthenNATO.Manyremainreluctanttoincreasemilitaryspending,despitepastpledges.Some,
likeItaly,arecuttingback.Franceisrevertingtoitstraditionalskepticismtowardthealliance,whichit
seesasaninstrumentofAmericanpolicyandaninfringementonitssovereignty.
AndthatisnottomentionthedeclarationsofthepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,
DonaldJ.Trump,thatNATOisobsolete,thatthealliesarerippingofftheUnitedStatesandthat
hewouldnotreallybeconcernedifthealliancebrokeup.Whilethatmaybecampaignbluster,itdoes
reflectagrowingunwillingnessintheUnitedStatestoshoulderadisproportionateshareoftheNATO
burden,militarilyandfinancially.
Thecurrentconcern,andamajorelementofwhattheNATOsecretarygeneral,JensStoltenberg,calls
thebiggestreinforcementofcollectivedefensesincetheendoftheColdWar,isthedecisiontoput
fourcombatbattalionsofupto1,000soldierseachinthosefront-linecountriesborderingRussia.
WhileBritain,GermanyandtheUnitedStateshaveagreedtoleadonebattalioneach,tobefilledout
withsoldiersfromotherNATOalliestopreservetheideaofmultinationalforces,leadershipofthe
fourthisnotyetinsightastheJuly8-9summitmeetinginWarsawrapidlyapproaches.
TheUnitedStatesisnotthinkingaboutdoingtwo,saiditsambassadortoNATO,DouglasE.Lute.
Wereplanningtodooneandgetouralliestostepupfortheotherthree.
ButotherlargernationslikeItalyandFrancehavedeclined.Italycutmilitaryspendingafterpledging
toincreaseittwoyearsagoinWales.Itsleaderssayitisalreadyparticipatinginanewlyenlarged
alliancerapid-reactionforce.
AndFrance,whichhasrevertedunderthecurrentSocialistgovernmenttoamoremistrustingviewof
NATOanditsAmericanleadership,isstretchedthininitsmilitarycampaignsinMali,theCentral
AfricanRepublicandNorthAfricaandSyria,letalonepatrollingitsownstreetsagainstterroristattack.
Franceislikelytocontributeonlyabout150soldierstothenewdeployments,NATOofficialssay,after
finallyagreeingtotheideaofforwarddeploymentsinPolandafterinitialopposition.Germany,which
sixmonthsagoopposedthesedeployments,agreedinreturnforeffortsatreneweddialoguewith
Russia.Italsoagreedtoleadonebattalion.
Sothesearchgoesonforafourthleadnation.Mr.Stoltenbergisconfidentitwillbefoundbythe
summitmeeting.
Thedeploymentsareimportant,becausethesecombatbattalionsaredesignednottobesimple
tripwires,buttobelargeenoughandsufficientlywellequippedtodoaninvaderrealdamage.Then
theycanbereinforcedmorequicklywiththeenhancedrapid-reactionforceandanotherNATOand
AmericandecisiontostationanotherUnitedStatesarmoredcombatbrigadeofaround5,000
soldiersinEurope(foratotalofthree)andtopre-positionitsheavyequipmentliketanksandartillery.
Polandisdemandingthatsomeofthatequipmentbepre-positionedonitsterritory,butforthe
moment,mostofitwillgotoGermany,BelgiumandtheNetherlands,whichhavestorageand
transportfacilitiesdatingfromtheColdWar.
Onlynow,infact,isNATOactuallysurveyingtheinfrastructurethebridges,roadsandrailways
ofrelativelynewermemberstatesinCentralandEasternEurope,nothavingjudgeditnecessary
beforetoplanhowtoquicklyreinforcethemincaseofaRussianinvasion.Pre-positioninginEastern
Europewouldcurrentlyrequirelargesumsforcapitalinvestmenttobuildspecialnewwarehousesand
infrastructure,Mr.Lutesaid.
Poland,eagertosendmessagestoMoscow,didsucceedinadvancinggroundbreakingforaballistic
missiledefensesitetocoincidewiththeoperationalopeningofoneinRomania.WhileMr.Stoltenberg
andWashingtoninsistthatsuchmissiledefensesarenotaimedatRussianintercontinentalballistic
missiles,Moscowisnotconvinced.
Here,too,Francehasbeenskeptical,nervousthatthereactiontimeofmissiledefensewillcircumvent
thepoliticaloversightoftheNorthAtlanticCouncil,theassemblyofmemberstatesandtheir
ambassadorsthatmakesNATOdecisionsbyconsensus.
Forthesamereason,FrancehasbeenreluctanttoallowtheNATOsupremecommander,whois
alwaysanAmericangeneral,toomuchauthoritytoactinacrisis,whichotherssayisneededto
respondquickly.
Buttheinitialmissiledefenseprogram,combinedwithnewforwarddeploymentsnearRussia(tobe
rotated,toavoidcallingthempermanent)andanenlargedrapidreactionforce,supposedlyreadyto
deployin48hours,allareameasureofhowmuchRussiasrecentactionshavechangedNATOs
calculations.
NATOistryingtoreassurevulnerablemembersliketheBalticStates,Polandandevensouthern
members,likeRomania,BulgariaandTurkeyontheBlackSea,thattheallianceintendstodeliveron
itspromiseofcollectivedefense.Missiledefenseispartoftheresponse,alongwithmorenaval
exercisesintheBlackSeaandmoreconsistentoverflightsbyreconnaissanceaircraft.
AsMr.Stoltenbergpointsout,theimpactofRussianpolicyhasfinallypushedEuropeanmembersof
NATOtoatleasthaltthedecades-longdeclineinmilitaryspending.Thisyear,hesaid,estimatesare
thatEuropeanallieswillasawholeincreasemilitaryspending,somethingWashingtonhasbeen
demanding,eventhoughmostarenotyetspendingthe2percentofG.D.P.thatistheNATOguideline.
Some16ofthe28memberstateshaveincreasedmilitaryspendinginrealterms,withonlyItaly,
BulgariaandCroatiastillcutting,althoughtheyinsistthatthecutsaretemporary.Iknowthemoodin
WashingtonandIunderstandit:theAmericanswanttoseetheEuropeansdoingmore,contributing
more,Mr.Stoltenbergsaid.ThishasbeenmymainmessageinEuropeancapitals.
Still,thereisanothertroublingRussia-relatedissueforNATOhowtodealwithanewRussian
militarydoctrinethatconsiderstheutilityoftacticalnuclearweaponsatthebeginningofaconflict,asa
deterrentagainstanadversaryretakingterritory,followedbywhatplannerscallaquickde-
escalation.
SomemembernationsbelievethatRussiaalreadyhasnuclearweaponsintheenclaveofKaliningrad,
ontheBalticSea,whereitpubliclydisplayednuclearwarheadsinapreviousexercise.Russiahasbeen
unclearaboutwhethertheyhavebeenremoved.
Whileawareofpublichorroraboutusingnuclearweapons,Mr.Stoltenberg,Mr.Luteandothers
emphasizethatNATOremainsanuclearallianceandthatitsdeterrenceismeanttobeseamless,
rangingfromresponsestocyberattacksthroughconventionalweaponsandifnecessary,nuclear
weapons,too.
NATOdoesnotregarditsnucleararsenalashavinganyuseotherthanpoliticaldeterrence,Mr.
Stoltenbergsaid.Butaslongasnuclearweaponsexistintheworld,hesaid,wehavetoremaina
nuclearalliance.
TO SNOWDEN OR NOT TO SNOWDEN
From:MarkVonHagen<Mark.Vonhagen@asu.edu>
Subject:FW:Pressrelease-Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned[Ed:Whatevertheultimatewisdomoftheban,
wisewitssaythatalotofGRUDezinformspecialistsdressupas'correspondents'notethatPutinin2014gaveout
severaldozenmedalsofcourage/meritto'journalists]
GreetingsfromWien!
From:<ownereca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>onbehalfofKathrynZehr<zehrk@hrw.org>
Date:Wednesday,June1,2016at6:33AM
To:"eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org"<eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>
Subject:PressreleaseUkraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned
http://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/01/ukraine-17-russian-journalists-banned
Ukraine:17RussianJournalistsBanned
DropSanctions,RespectMediaFreedom
(Moscow)Ukrainianauthoritiesshouldimmediatelydropabanon17Russianjournalistsandprotectmediafreedom,Human
RightsWatchsaidtoday.OnMay27,2016,PresidentPetroPoroshenkosignedadecreetoimplementaMay20National
SecurityandDefenseCouncilresolutionbarring17Russianreporters,editors,andmediaexecutivesfromenteringUkrainethrough
December31,2017.
UkraineislegitimatelyconcernedabouttheeffectsofRussianpropaganda,butcrackingdownonmediafreedomisamisguided,
inappropriateresponsetowhateverdisagreementtheUkrainiangovernmentmayhavewithRussiasmediacoverageabout
Ukraine,saidTanyaCooper,EuropeandCentralAsiaresearcheratHumanRightsWatch.Targetingjournalistsinthisway
inevitablyencouragescensorship.
Amongthe17areKonstantinErnst,generaldirectorofChannelOne,Russiasmainstate-ownedtelevisionchannel,andMargarita
Simonyan,chiefeditorofRussiasinternationaltelevisionnetworkRT(formerlyRussiaToday)andtheRossiyaSegodnyanews
agency.JournalistsonthelistalsoincludeVladislavFronin,chiefeditoroftheofficialgovernmentnewspaperRossiyskaya
Gazeta,andVitaliLeibin,correspondentatRusskiyReportermagazine.Russiaeitherowns,atleastpartially,orexertssignificant
controloverthemediaoutletslistedinthepresidentialdecree.
Thedecreesaysthatthetargetedjournalistscreaterealandpotentialthreattonationalinterests,nationalsecurity,sovereignty,and
territorialintegrityofUkrainefacilitateterroristactivityandviolatecitizensrightsandfreedomscontributetotheoccupationof
territories,andobstructfullrealizationofrightsandfreedomsbyUkrainiancitizens.
RussiancitizensdonotneedavisatotraveltoUkraine.
Anearlierpresidentialdecree,signedonSeptember16,2015,hadalreadybannedawiderangeofRussianindividualsand
organizationsfromenteringUkraineforayear.Thatlist,compiledbyUkrainesNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,named
388individualsand105legalentitiesdeemedathreattoUkrainessecurity.InadditiontoRussianseniorgovernmentofficials,
parliamentmembers,andrebelleadersoperatingineasternUkraine,thelistincluded41journalistsandbloggersfromseveral
countries,includingRussia,theUnitedKingdom,Germany,andIsrael.TheoriginalversionofthelistincludedthreeBBC
journalists,whosenameswerequicklyremovedafteraninternationaloutcry.
OnMay27,Poroshenkoremoved29peoplefromtheearliersanctionslist,amongthemjournalistsfromIsrael,Estonia,Hungary,
Moldova,andothercountries,andseveralRussianjournalistsfromRIANovosti,RT,andITAR-TASS,whoarebasedoutside
Ukraine.
TheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-operationinEurope(OSCE)representativeonfreedomofthemedia,DunjaMijatovi,
issuedastatementdeploringthesanctionsonjournalists,sayingthatintroducingover-broadrestrictionsthatcurbfreemovement
ofjournalistsisnotthewaytoensuresecurity.
TheMay27decreeinstructsthegovernmentandsecurityservicestoenforcethetravelban.ItsaystheForeignMinistryshould
informofficialsoftheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,andothergovernmentsaboutthenewsanctionsandencouragethemto
considersimilarmeasuresagainstthepeopleonthelist.
UkraineisapartytotheEuropeanConventiononHumanRightsandtheInternationalCovenantonCivilandPoliticalRights,both
ofwhichprotectfreedomofexpression.WhilethejournalistsdonothaveanabsoluterighttoenterUkraine,thebanonentryasa
resultoftheirexerciseoffreespeechandexpressionofopiniondoesconstituteaninterferencewithfreedomofexpressionandis
likelytohaveachillingeffectonotherjournalists.Tobelegitimate,aninterferencewithorrestrictiononfreedomofexpression
mustbeprovidedforinlaw,nondiscriminatory,anddemonstrablynecessarytoprotectalegitimateaim,inamannerthatis
proportionatetoprotectthataim.
Furtherrestrictionsarealsopermittedduringastateofemergencyifacountryhasannouncedaderogationatemporary
suspensionfromcertainofitstreatyobligations.Eventhen,tobelegitimateaderogationmustbespecific,foratemporary
particularperiodoftime,necessarytomeettheexigenciesofthesituation,andsubjecttojudicialreview.Ukrainehasnotmade
anyderogationwithrespecttofreedomofexpressionundereithertreaty.
UkrainesinternationalpartnersshouldprotestthedecreeandurgeKievtorevokeit,Coopersaid.TheEU,US,andothers
needtomakeclearthattheydonotsupportsucharbitrarymeasuresagainstthemediaandencouragePresidentPoroshenkoand
hisgovernmenttorespectmediafreedomeveniftheydisagreewiththecoveragebycertainoutlets.

From:VRT
Subject:Ukrainedeclareswaronjournalism[ED:Again,withoutdebatingtheoverallmeritsofthe
debate,wisewitsaskhowwhatUkiehackshavedone(indefenseofwhattheythoughtwassacredto
them)differsfromwhatSnowdenandAssangehavedone]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
KIEV,UkraineInJuly2014,IwenttoDonetsk,aseparatist-controlledregionineasternUkraine,to
covertheshootingdownofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17.Itwasadangerousplaceatthetime.The
Ukrainianmilitaryandtherebelswereshellingeachother,andtemperamentalmenwithKalashnikovs
whohadbeenknowntokidnapjournalistswereeverywhere.
Likemanyforeignreporters,Iwastheretorelaywhatwashappeningtotheremainsofthedowned
flights298passengersandcrewmembers.BeforeIwenttothecrashsite,Iobtainedaccreditation
fromtheseparatists.ThisdidnotguaranteethatIwouldbesafe,butitwastheonlywaytogetpast
thearmedcheckpoints.
NowUkrainehaslabeledmeanaccompliceinterrorism.
OnMay7,thewebsiteMirotvorets(Peacemaker),courtesyofanonymoushackers,publishedpartof
theseparatistsaccreditationrecords.Myname,emailaddressandphonenumberwereamongthose
ofmorethan4,000journalists,includingfreelancerslikeme,aswellascorrespondentsfromthis
newspaper,Reuters,theBBCandotheroutlets.Wewerecollectivelylabeledterroristcollaborators
forgainingaccreditationfromtheseparatists.Thelistspublishersclaimednottoknowwhatthe
consequenceswouldbeofreleasingthisinformation,butitseemedclearthattheintentwasto
encouragepeopletotakeactionagainstthejournalistsontheirown.
AntonGerashchenko,amemberofUkrainesParliamentandanadvisertotheMinistryofInterior,
praisedthepublicationofthelistandcalledforjournaliststoassistUkraineinitsinformationwar
withRussia.CondemnationofthelistfollowedfromorganizationsincludingtheOrganizationfor
SecurityandCo-operationinEuropeandtheCommitteetoProtectJournalists.Ukraines
ombudsmancalledforthewebsitetobeblocked.Ascriticismbuilt,thepeoplerunningMirotvoretssaid
theywouldtaketheirwebsiteofflineandtheKievprosecutorsofficebegananinvestigationinto
whetherornotthoserunningthesitehadcommittedacrime.
Inresponse,theinteriorminister,ArsenAvakov,declaredhissupportforMirotvoretsandaccused
thosewhocriticizedthepublicationofthelistofharboringseparatistsympathies.His
Facebookpostreceivedover3,000likes,andthepublicationofthelistisstronglysupportedbythe
public.AfteranofficialfromtheMinistryofInformationPolicysaidonTVthatthelistthreatenedthe
livesofjournalistsherboss,YuriyStets,postedanapologyonsocialmedia,sayingthattheofficialdid
notrepresenttheministrysposition.
Emboldenedbythesupport,thewebsiteisnowbackonlineandhaspostedadditionaljournalists
contactinformation.Theeditorsstatedthattheywouldnotlistentothewhimperingaboutfreedom
ofspeech.AnadvisertotheheadoftheUkrainianSecurityServiceannouncedthatthejournalistson
thelistswerebeinginvestigatedaspotentialspies.
Theselistsarenominallyaboutwhohasinteractedwiththeseparatistrebels,buttheycreateawider
andmoredangerousprecedent.Thewebsiteanditssupportersingovernmentaresuggesting
thatjournalistscanbedividedintotwocamps:thosewhosupportthestateandthosewhoareagainst
it,withtheimplicationthatjournalistswhocriticizethegovernmentshouldbesilenced.
Thisisdangerousinanysociety,butespeciallyinUkrainerightnow,wherecriticaljournalismis
especiallynecessary.Fewreformshavegonefullyintoeffectandthecountryhasrecentlytakenahard
turnbacktowardcronyism.PresidentPetroO.Poroshenkoinstalledacloseallyasprimeminister,
breakingthedivisionoflegislativeandexecutivepowerestablishedaftertheMaidanSquareprotests
in2014thatledtotheousterofhispredecessor.Healsonamedacronywithnolawdegreeasgeneral
prosecutor.AscorruptionandnepotismthreatenthehopeofUkrainesrevolution,journalistsarebeing
toldthattheyarehelpingtheenemyjustbydoingtheirjobs.
UkrainehaslongfeltoutgunnedbyRussiaspropagandamachine.Moscowsstate-sponsoredTV
channelsandInternettrollshavetriedtodivideUkraineandturnglobalsentimentagainstit.Kiev
lacksthebudgettomatchthosepropagandaprojects,butmanyUkrainianpublicationsandjournalists
avoidreportingnewsthatlooksbadfortheircountryorcouldserveRussianpropaganda.Ukrainian
officialsrecognizedthisreluctanceasausefulpoliticaltool.Theynowseektoexplainawayany
criticismasRussianhybridwarfare.ThatishowMr.PoroshenkodismissedaNewYorkTimes
editorialcriticizinghisfailuretotacklecorruption.
Intryingtoencouragepatrioticjournalism,inwhichthestatealwaysreceivesthebenefitofthe
doubt,UkrainianofficialsareactuallyfosteringajournalismculturesimilartoRussias.Russia,too,
chastisesreportersandpublicationsthatpublishstoriescriticalofthegovernmentfornotbeing
patriotic.Andthatswhynotmanydosoanymore.Recently,theeditorialstaffofoneofthefew
remainingindependentnewsorganizationsinRussia,RBC,wasdismissedfollowinggovernment
pressure.Therearealsodarkerchaptersofsilencingcriticaljournalists,includingaccusationsof
murder.
MostseniorUkrainianofficialshaveavoidedcommentingonthereleaseofjournalistsnamesand
information.ButtheyshouldnowactinaccordancewiththeWesternvaluesthattheyclaimtobelieve,
andcondemnthedefamationofjournalistsjustforworkinginseparatist-controlledareas.Theymust
alsoensurethattheoffendingwebsiteisshutdownandthattheinvestigationintowhopublishedthe
listresultsincriminalcharges.Thisalonewillnotensurethatthecountrysnewsmediaisfreeandfair,
butitwillhelpsettherighttone.Ukrainemustnotsacrificepressfreedominitsstruggletosurvive
war.
IanBatesonisworkingonabookaboutUkrainianidentityaftertheMaidanrevolution.
FollowTheNewYorkTimesOpinionsectiononFacebookandTwitter,andsignupfortheOpinionToday
newsletter.
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 05/31/201603:23:12PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes31May2016
Attachments: IN31May16.docx
InternetNotes31May2016
MoreonKudrin,theeconomiccouncilsession(Belousovvs.KudrinKudrinadvisedeasingtensionswiththeWest
PutinsaidhewoulddefendRussiansovereigntyaslongashelivesDuginssiteonKudrinandthesixthcolumn
Medvedevvs.KudrinPutinwillmaintainbalanceinmakingadecisiononaneconomicprogram)
MoreonMurovsouster(FSBvs.FSO)
VenediktovwillbequestionedaboutpublicationofaNavalniyblog
Lavrov:RecognizingLNR/DNRwouldbecounterproductive
VedomostionSavchenko(DeprivingtheWestofatrumpcard)
RussiaandGreece
MoreonKudrin,theeconomiccouncilsession(Belousovvs.KudrinKudrinadvisedeasingtensionswiththeWest
PutinsaidhewoulddefendRussiansovereigntyaslongashelivesDuginssiteonKudrinandthesixthcolumn
Medvedevvs.KudrinPutinwillmaintainbalanceinmakingadecisiononaneconomicprogram)
Seethenotesfrom23,25,26,and27May
PresidentialEconomicAdvisorAndreyBelousovtoldVestivSubbotuthatheopposestwoofKudrinsmainproposalsraising
thepensionageandcuttingmilitaryspending:http://www.newsru.com/russia/28may2016/belousovsays.htmlKudrinhadbeenon
theprogramtheweekbeforepromotinghisideaofraisingthepensionage,apositionsupportedbytheEconomicDevelopment
Ministry(MER)Putindidnotcommentonsuchproposalsatlastweekseconomiccouncilsession,butitsevidentthereisa
strugglegoingonoverexpendituresBelousovbelievesthatcuttingmilitaryandsocialspendingoverallisastepbackwards
Belousovsaidthatthestatehadtakenonobligationstorearmthemilitaryandraisepayforthepowerstructures,socutting
spendingnowwouldamounttorenegingonapromiseBelousovclaimedthattheeconomywasonthevergeofimprovinglabor
productivityraisingthepensionagewouldmeanmorehandsavailableintheworkforceatatimeofincreasedlaborproductivity,
threateninghigherunemploymentAttheendofApril,however,theMERproclaimedthateffortstoincreaselaborproductivity
hadfailedandVicePremierDmitriyRogozinhassaidthatlowlaborproductivitymeantthattheRussianspaceprogramwouldnot
overtaketheAmericanprogram(Rogozinsubsequentlyissuedaclarificationhewantedtomakeitclearthathedidnotmeanthat
Russianrocketengines,forexample,werenotcompetitivewithAmericanengines:http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-05-
30/2_red.html).
Belousov,commentingonunemployment,saidthatinRussia,unemploymentof,say,6%wascriticalthisisntSouthern
Europe,where10%isntanythingterrible.Belousovdidadmit,however,thatalternativestoraisingthepensionagewouldalsobe
toughandthatthepensionsystemwasfacedwithagrowingdeficitthathadtobedealtwith.Atlargeandmediumenterprises,
laborproductivitywasperhaps1.5Xor2XlessthaninEurope,andBelousovsaiditwouldnottakesupernaturaleffortsto
improvethatandincreasegrowthto4%within2-3yearsTheMERconsidersthelargenumberofpensionersafactorthatlimits
growthasmoreandmorepeopleleavetheworkforce200,000-300,000veryyear.Returningtolevelsof5%-7%growthis
practicallyimpossible,evenifoilpricesrisetomorethan$50/barrel
Comment:oneofthethemesthathascomeupregardingincreasinggrowthisthatloweringtensionswiththeWest
andhavingsanctionseasedorremovedwouldbeanimportantfactorinimprovingtheeconomy.Accordingto
Vedomosti(http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2016/05/30/642871-kudrin-putinu),Kudrin,duringtheeconomiccouncil
session,broughtupwhathesaidwasthenecessityofattractingforeigninvestmentloweringinternationaltensionsisessentialto
attractforeigncapital.Inhisclosingremarkstothesession,PutinsaidthatRussiahada1,000yearoldhistoryandwouldnottrade
offthecountryssovereignty.Russiadidnotstartanythingthatledtotensions.PutinpledgedtodefendRussiansovereigntyaslong
ashelived(thatsaccordingtopeoplewhowerethere).ButonesourceaddsthatPutinalsosaidthatofcourse,tensionsshould
notbeincreasedandRussiawouldnotrespondtoprovocations.Putinsaidthatforeignbusinessesthatfinditprofitabletooperate
inRussiawouldnotleave.Afterthemeeting,Kudrincommentedthathehadraisedtheissueofloweringpoliticalrisks
OneparticipanttoldVedomostithatKudrinwaspresentingPutinwithaforkintheroadoneforkrepresentedpolitical
ambitionsandstagnation,theotherpoliticalmodestyandmoderategrowth.ItshardtotellwhetherPutinwillsidewithKudrinor
Kudrinsopponents.Ontheonehand,Kudrinsupportsbeingconservativewiththereserves,whichsuitsPutinontheother,talk
ofRussianbackwardnessandlackoffaithinpositivesisnotsomethingPutinwilllike.NorwillhelikethepositionthatRussia
cannotcounton4%growthinafewyears.TheStolypinClubsBorisTitovnotesthatPutinusuallytalksalotaboutmaintaining
stabilitynotsomuchatthislastmeeting.Titovreadsthatasasignthatthepositionofthosewhowanttostimulatetheeconomy
hasbetterchancesnowMeanwhile,theWorldBanksaysthatifsanctionsareremovedin2017,Russiangrowthratescould
reach2%insteadofthe1.1%thatwasprojectedearlierbuteconomicgrowthwouldstallwithoutstructuralreforms
DuginssiterepeatedPutinscommentsonsovereignty,thenwentontosaythatKudrinsviewswereunrealisticandrepresented
theinterestsofoligarchcapital:http://katehon.com/ru/news/kudrin-prizval-putina-snizit-napryazhennost-v-geopolitikeThatsthe
RussianlanguagetaketheEnglishversionistougheronKudrin:http://katehon.com/ru/node/29803
Kudrinisamajorrepresentativeofthesixthcolumn.Thesixthcolumnisbasicallythelobbyistsofliberalinterestsandtheglobalistagenda,which
maskthemselvesasfriendsofthePresident.PutinhoweverwillnotsacrificeRussiansovereigntyandgeopoliticalinterestswhichareofmost
importantvaluetohim.ThepresidentsresentpilgrimagetoAthosgivesadeeperspiritualmeaningtothisprotectivemissionofVladimirPutin.
Comment:Dugindistinguishesbetweenthefifthcolumnthenon-systemicoppositionandtheirsupportersand
whathecallsthesixthcolumn,peoplewithinthesystemwhoareactually,saysDugin,agentsofWesterninfluence.
ThetitleoftheEnglishversionisPutinDeniedKudrinsoffertoSurrenderwhichactuallymeansthatPutin
refusedaproposalofsurrender
HeresthetakeonthemeetingfromTsentrPoliticheskoyKonyunktury(TsPK)aspartofTsPKsweeklypoliticalroundup:
http://cpkr.ru/analytics/23-29-maya-er-podvodit-itogiThethreevariantsofeconomicstrategyarerepresentedbyKudrin,
Ulyukayev,andTitov-GlazyevTheKremlinisnowfacedwithadilemmatheTitov-Glazyevrecipewouldyieldmoreelectoral
dividends,butKudrinsandUlyukayevsproposalswouldattractmoresupportfrombigbusiness,thefederalbureaucracy,andthe
West.PartofthebattleisMedvedevvs.Kudrinandthegovernmentapparatusvs.anyalternativecenterforeconomicdecision
making.AddtothattheelectoralambitionsofTitovandGlazyev.Putinsdecisionswilldependonhisunderstandingofmaintaining
abalanceofforcesinvlast.ItsimportanttoPutintopreventapublicMedvedevvs.Kudrinbattle,theweakeningofthe
government,andtheunjustifiedstrengtheningofrelativeoutsiderslikeTitovandGlazyev.Thus,itsinPutinsinteresttodragout
thediscussions,compilinglistsofproposals,andnotchoosingoneovertheother.Theflipsideofthatisthattheprolonged
discussionwillmeantheargumentoftheeconomistsmovingontothepoliticalfield.
Pavlovskiy(EffectivePoliticsFoundation),LeonidSyukiyayen(HigherEconomicsSchool),andGeorgoiySatarov(INDEM
Foundation)commentonKudrinsremarksontheneedtolowertensions:http://www.mk.ru/politics/2016/05/30/primet-li-putin-
sovet-kudrina-ne-napryagatsya.html
Pavlovskiy:NeitherKudrinnorPutinsaidwhattheyreallythink,buttheybothunderstandoneanother.IsKudrinactuallyagainst
thedevelopmentofmilitaryindustryandanarmsrace?Ofcoursenot,becausemilitaryindustryispartoftheeconomy.Wearenot
onlysupplyingthearmy,butbuildingweaponsforexport.Putinsaidhewillnotsacrificegeopoliticalinterestsforthegoodof
loweringtensions.Russianswanttohearthatfromhim.ButKudrincanseethatPutiniscautiouslytakingstepsinthedirectionof
loweringtensions,includingendingtheactivephaseofoperationsinSyriaandsendingSavchenkobacktoUkraine.Putinisnot
usingaggressiverhetorictowardstheWest.Butheunderstandsthatsortofrhetoricconsolidatesthepeoplearoundvlast,sohehas
delegatedthattasktocertainTVhostsandTVpoliticians.TheshowhasnothingtodowithRussiancontactswiththeWest.So
bothKudrinandPutinaresayingwhatothersexpecttohearfromthem,butitsnotactuallyclearwhichoneofthemisthebigger
hawk.
Syukiyayen:Putinisdoingwhathecantolowertensions.Buttheresanassumptionthatthosetensionswouldbeeasedonlyby
Russiabackingdownandthatsnotthecase.WhatifRussiahadnotannexedCrimeafollowingthecoupinKiev,forinstance?
TherewouldbeaNATObasethere.Wouldgeo-politicaltensionhavebeenless?IfRussiahadnotintervenedinSyria,canyou
imaginewhatwouldhavehappenedintheMiddleEastandwhatthestreamofextremiststotheCaucasusandbackwouldhave
beenlike?Inordertolowertensions,Russiahasopenedeverydoor.Ourpoliticiansareonsanctionslists,andweletallkindsof
delegationsintothecountry
Satarov:Vlastneedstensionstheyhelpsolvedomesticpoliticalproblemslikesuppressingdissent.Buttheeconomicsituation
mayforcevlasttomakesomechangesitslikeinthe80s,whentheUSSR,whichwasdependentonoilprices,pursuedwarm
relationswiththeWestwhenoilpricescollapsed
MoreonMurovsouster(FSBvs.FSO)
Seethenotesfrom26and27May.
http://politcom.ru/print.php?id=21143
Afterlengthyattacks,oneofthemostinfluentialsilovikyhasbecomethelatestvictimoftheclanstruggleinthepowerblock.
Rumorsabouthisdeparturehavebeencirculatingsince2013,whenthemovementofFSOpeopleintootherpowerdepartments
gotunderwayaprominentexamplebeingZolotovsappointmentasheadoftheMVDInternalTroops.DmitriyMironov
followedZolotovintotheMVDandheadeditscriminalinvestigations(inDecember,hebecameadeputyminister).Aleksandr
KolpakovlefttheFSOtobecomeheadofthePresidentialAffairsAdministrationThisyear,twoofMurovsdeputydirectorsleft
theFSOAleksandrBelyakovandAleksandrLashuk(oneofthemwasreplacedbyViktorTulupov).Thecadrechanges
indicatedareformationofthestaffasMurovwaspreparingforretirement,withinformalreportsthathewasdoingjustthat
appearingin2014.ThemainreasongivenwasageMassmediareportsconnectMurovsdeparturetothearrestofDmitriy
SergeyevofBaltstroyandthesubsequentarrestofbusinessmanDmitriyMikhalchenkoattheendofMarch(Comment:Theres
moreabouttheCultureMinistryaffair,Ateks,andMikhalchenkoasMurovsmanthatwascoveredinearlier
notes)
PreparationsforMurovsdeparturewereunderwaysometimeago,butthecatalystforhisleavingatthistimewasthestruggle
amongthesiloviky,includingalengthyFSBvs.FSObattle.Atthesametime,acadresrevolutionisnotunderwayPutinistrying
topreservecontinuity(Comment:ThisisinreferencetoKochnevtakingoverattheFSO.Seethe26and27May
notes.FortheFSB-FSObattle,see,forexample,notesfrom3,11,and19May).ButitsdoubtfulthatMurovsdeparture
willlowerthefeverpitchoftheclanstruggleamongthesiloviky
MorefromAgentura.rusAndreySoldatov:http://www.svoboda.mobi/a/27761289.html
Comment:SoldatovremindsusthatwhenwesaythereisanFSBvs.FSObattle,itsimportanttorememberthat
werenotnecessarilytalkingaboutafull-scaleclashofinstitutions,but,rather,abattleofclanswithinthose
organizations.Asnotedabove,FSOpeoplehavebeenmovingintootherinstitutionsliketheMVD,buttheymaynot
haveordevelopanyinstitutionalloyaltytoaneworganizationitsmorelikelytheywillworkfortheinterestsoftheir
clan,thefocalpointofwhichmaybesomewhereoutsidetheirformalorganization.IusetheshorthandFSBvs.
FSOandgenerallythinkoftheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)asbeingtheFSBsallyagainstChaykaandtheMVD,
forinstance,but,again,theseinstitutionsareactuallyhivesofclans,andtheinformalarrangementsarestrongerthan
theinstitutionalones.Sothatsanimportantpointthatweshouldnotlosesightof.Zolotov,forinstance,wasinthe
MVD,commandingtheInternalTroops,butbyallaccountskepthistiestohisoldFSOcomradesandwascloserto
KadyrovthantoKolokoltsev,whosawZolotovasathreattohisposition.
SoldatovalsosaysthatPutinisusingtheFSOasacadresreservePutinhaslosthisoldcontactswiththeSt.PetersburgFSB
fromwhichhedrewcadresinthepast.Inthe90s,headsofspecialserviceswereoftenpeoplewhohadcreatedthosepost-
Sovietorganizationsandhadmorereasontocountontheloyaltyoftheircadrestoday,Bastrykinistheonlypowerstructure
chiefleadinganorganizationthathehasheadedfromitsinceptionPutincouldbemoresureofthespecialserviceswhenhewas
drawingonpeoplefromSt.Petersburgtodayheisnotsosureoftheirloyaltyandthemainproblemhasbeenwhowouldheuse
forreplacementsinthoseorganizations.PutinhasleanedontheFSOforcadres,somethingSoldatovcallsadesperatestep.
Why?BecausePutincantrustonlythosepeoplerighttherewithhim,hissecuritydetail,somethingreminiscentofwhathappensin
smalldictatorships,butcantworkinahugecountrylikeRussia.ItsacomplexproblemPutinissurroundedbypeoplewhoare
silovikyandthosepeoplearealwaysinadefensivestance,alwaysansweringforthreatstheyliveinaworldofthreats.That
suggestsPutinandhiscirclehavefewstrategicplans,thereareonlytacticaldecisions(Comment:Apointsupportedby
Belkovskiyandmadeinthesenotesmanytimes)
VenediktovwillbequestionedaboutpublicationofaNavalniyblog
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-police-to-interrogate-ekho-moskvy-editor-for-publishing-navalny-
blog/571097.html
AlexeiVenediktov,editor-in-chiefoftheEkhoMoskvyradiostationhassaidthatpolicewillinterrogatehimafterablogpostby
oppositionleaderAlexeiNavalnywaspublishedonthestation'swebsite.
EmployeesoftheInteriorMinistrycametoEkhoaboutacourtcaseagainstNavalnytheywanttointerrogatetheeditor-in-chieffor
publishinghisblogpost,VenediktovtweetedonTuesday.
TheInteriorMinistryhavefiledacourtcaseonbehalfofformerinvestigatorPavelKarpov,accusingNavalnyofslander.
TheInteriorMinistryfiledthecasebecauseNavalnywroteaboutafilminhisblogsandsocialmediapagesthataccusedKarpovof
beinginvolvedinthedeathofHermitageCapitalemployeeSergeiMagnitskyin2009.MagnitskydiedinanisolationcellinaMoscow
prisonin2009.
HiscolleaguesaccusedtheRussianauthoritiesofarrestingMagnitskyafterhehaduncoveredcorruptionscandals,whichinvolved
amongothersemployeesoftheInteriorMinistry.In2012,theUnitedStatesapprovedthesocalledMagnitskyBillalistof
sanctionsonindividualsbelievedtobeinvolvedinhisdeath.PavelKarpovisamongthem.
Lavrov:RecognizingLNR/DNRwouldbecounterproductive
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/lavrov-recognizing-separatist-ukrainian-republics-counter-productive/571101.html
RecognizingtheseparatistrepublicsofLuganskandDonetskineasternUkrainewouldbecounter-productiveforMoscow,Russian
ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsaidinaninterviewTuesday.
Inanhour-longlivevideoblogwithRussiannewspaperKomsomolskayaPravda,LavrovsaidthatrecognizingtheLuganskPeople's
RepublicandtheDonetskPeople'sRepublicwouldgivetheWestareasontostopputtingpressureonKiev.Theydon'tliketosaysoin
public,butwhentheytalktotheUkrainiansinprivateandweknowaboutthistheydemandeverythingwhichwenegotiatedin
Minsk,saidLavrov.
LavrovsaidthatRussiawouldnotbeabletoactiftheWeststoppedputtingpressureonKiev.HealsoclaimedthatRussia'soccasional
pressureontheOSCEmeantthatthemissionpublishesreportsnotonlyontheDonbassarea,butonotherregionsofUkraine.
InApril2015,VladimirPutindeclinedtocommentonwhetherornotMoscowwouldrecognizethepro-Russianseparatistrepublics.He
alsosaidthatanyanswerwouldbecounter-productive.
VedomostionSavchenko(DeprivingtheWestofatrumpcard)
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/05/30/642877-savchenko-zerkalo
PutinhasnotreceivedanythingsolidfromtheWestforreleasingSavchenkosoVedomostioffersapragmaticexplanationof
whyshewassenthome:Morethanonce,MoscowhasdeclaredthatitwasKievthatwasholdingupthefulfillmentoftheMinsk
agreements.AndtheWestwasalwaysreadytoreplyButyouhaveSavchenkoinjail!SosendingSavchenkohomeremoved
onetrumpcardfromtheWesternhand.AsfarasthereleasebeingapropagandadefeatforVVPthatwontsticktoPutins
teflonrating
RussiaandGreece
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-greece-is-fighting-russias-corner/571106.html
ThearrivalofRussianPresidentVladimirPutininGreeceonMay27tomeetwiththeGreekleadershipandvisitMountAthoswasnotat
allaccidental.Bothcountriessharethesameapproachontheneedfordeeperenergypartnershipandlarge-scaleinvestmentsina
globalenvironmentcharacterizedbybigpoliticalandeconomicuncertainty,theriseofreligiousextremismandwarfare.
GreeceandRussiahavetraditionallydevelopedpoliticalandeconomicties,notonlydrivenbytheobviousreligiousreference,but
primarilyasaresultofmutualinterestsintheBalkanregionandtheSoutheasternMediterraneanBasin.
TheriseofSyrizatopowerreinstatedthispartnership.Syrizasstrategicprioritywasthedevelopmentofamultilateralforeignpolicythat
recognizesthemeritsofregionalcooperationandseeksgenuinecooperationwithpivotalplayersinadjacentareas.Committedto
preserveandmultiplytheappealoftheEUandGreeceinaturbulentgeographicalregion,theSyriza-ledgovernmentstronglycriticized
theimpositionofsanctionsonRussiabytheEUCouncil.
Inthisrespect,GreekPrimeMinisterAlexisTsiprasinhismeetingwithPutinunderlinedthestrategicchoiceoftheGreekgovernment
tostrengthenbilateralrelations,respectingGreecesstanceandpositionintheEU,withPutinaddingthatweacknowledgethat
realismhastoprevailinbilateralrelations.
WhatRussiaCanGainfromGreece
High-leveltalksbetweenthetwodelegationsemphasizedenergycooperationandtheinvolvementofRussiancompaniesinanumberof
privatizations.ThecreationofthenewGreekPrivatisationFundhasmultipliedpotentialforinvestmentsinrealestateandtransportit
hastobenotedthattheinaugurationoftheTransAdriaticPipeline(TAP)facilitatesGazprom'splantofurtherdeveloptheSouthGas
Corridor.
TransferringgasfromAzerbaijanthroughTurkeytowardGreece,ItalyandthentoCentralEuropeisonlyoneoptionthatRussiacan
furtherexplore.There-ignitionofthetrilateralpartnershipalongwithGreeceandBulgaria,andthebenefitsintermsofexploitingthe
prospectiveinfrastructureschemeandcapacityinNorthernGreece,arecertainlymotivatingfactorsforGazpormtobuildonamulti-
networkofgassupplycrossingtheBalkanregionandWesternEurope.
TimingalsomattersasGreeceisenteringanewstageafter1.5yearsofnegotiationsonitsbailoutprogram.Thereleaseofthenext
tranche,theagreementonaroadmaptofinallyaddressdebtreliefissuesandthestrongintentionoftheGreekgovernmentto
emphasizegrowthandinvestmentprojectsinthecomingperiodissomethingMoscowevaluatespositively.Greecehasalsobroadened
itsenergypolicycoalitionswithIsraelandCyprusintheEasternMediterranean,gainingsignificantleverageandrecoveringfromalong
periodofnon-involvementinregionalaffairs.
WhatGreeceCanGainfromRussia
Greeceisdelicatelyre-shapingitspositioningregionally,gainingconfidenceandforeseeingsignificantfinancialbenefits,especiallyafter
introducinganew,investment-friendlygrowthbillintoparliament.ThefirststepsofcooperationwithRussiaweredeterminedlastyear
whenTsiprasvisitedMoscowandanumberofGreekofficialsandbusinessrepresentativestravelledtoMoscowseveraltimestoexplore
reciprocalinvestmentopportunities.
Onthefinancialside,theGreekeconomycantakeadvantageofitsopenmarketforforeignnon-EUinvestmentsandcapitalizeonthe
factthattheEuropeanCommissionandthemajorityofmemberstateshaveundertakenacriticalstanceagainstRussiasfinancial
involvementintheirdomesticeconomies.
FortheGreekgovernment,theliftingofsanctionsandreinstatementofRussiaspositionintheG8isofparamountimportance.A
positivedevelopmentonthatfront,withtheEuropeanCommissionassumingamoreconstructiveapproach,wouldalsoturnGreeceinto
atopdestinationforRussiantourists.
Onthegeopoliticalside,thedeteriorationofbilateralrelationsbetweenRussiaandTurkeyandthefactthatGreeceisalow-riskareain
termsofsecuritychallengesareconsideredaskeyincentivesfordeepeningties.Inadditiontothat,Greecewantsastrongallyanda
globalpoweronitssideforthecominggeopoliticalshiftsthatwilltakeplaceinthewiderregion,mainlyregardinganynegativeshiftin
therefugeecrisisandtheongoingturbulenceintheArabWorld.
DimitrisPapadimoulisisvicepresidentoftheEuropeanParliamentandheadoftheSyrizapartydelegation.
Senttime: 05/31/201609:45:50AM
FW:[MEMDAYMEMO][MB]FiveUkrainiantroopskilledbyrebelsnearDonetskIsVladimirPutinreallytryingtobreakuptheEU?......
Subject:
[ZNZ]EfforttoExposeRussiasTrollArmyDrawsViciousRetaliation.....[MH]RUDEZINFORMHITSHOME(literally)
Sent:Monday,May30,201610:16AM
Subject:Fwd:[MEMDAYMEMO][MB]FiveUkrainiantroopskilledbyrebelsnearDonetskIsVladimirPutinreallytryingtobreakupthe
EU?......[ZNZ]EfforttoExposeRussiasTrollArmyDrawsViciousRetaliation.....[MH]RUDEZINFORMHITSHOME(literally)
Date:Mon,May30,2016at10:15AM
Subject:[MEMDAYMEMO][MB]FiveUkrainiantroopskilledbyrebelsnearDonetskIsVladimirPutinreallytryingtobreak
uptheEU?......[ZNZ]EfforttoExposeRussiasTrollArmyDrawsViciousRetaliation.....[MH]RUDEZINFORMHITS
HOME(literally)
Subject:FiveUkrainiantroopskilledbyrebelsnearDonetsk-BBCNews
Whatceasefire?
FiveUkrainiantroopskilledbyrebelsnearDonetsk

Subject:IsVladimirPutinreallytryingtobreakuptheEU?-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-36400924
IsVladimirPutinreallytryingtobreakuptheEU?

From:zoryanazaryckyj@sandiego.edu
Subject:Tato:EfforttoExposeRussiasTrollArmyDrawsViciousRetaliation
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2016/05/30/7110183/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/31/world/europe/russia-finland-nato-trolls.html?_r=0
EfforttoExposeRussiasTrollArmyDraws
ViciousRetaliation
JessikkaAro,right,ajournalistinFinland,washarassedafterreportingontheriseofabusivepro-Russian
postsontheInternet.CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
HELSINKI,FinlandSeekingtoshinesomelightintothedarkworldofInternettrolls,ajournalist
withFinlandsnationalbroadcasteraskedmembersofheraudiencetosharetheirexperienceof
encounterswithRussiastrollarmy,araucousandoftenvenomousforceofonlineagitators.
Theresponsewasoverwhelming,thoughnotinthedirectionthatthejournalist,JessikkaAro,had
hoped.
Assheexpected,shereceivedsomefeedbackfrompeoplewhohadclashedwithaggressivelypro-
Russianvoicesonline.Butshewastakenaback,andshaken,byaviciousretaliatorycampaignof
harassmentandinsultsagainstherandherworkbythosesamepro-Russianvoices.
Everythinginmylifewenttohellthankstothetrolls,saidMs.Aro,35,aninvestigativereporter
withthesocialmediadivisionofFinlandsstatebroadcaster,YleKioski.
Abusiveonlineharassmentishardlylimitedtopro-RussianInternettrolls.Ukraineandother
countriesatoddswiththeKremlinalsohavelegionsofaggressiveavengersonsocialmedia.
Butpro-RussianvoiceshavebecomesuchanoisyanddisruptivepresencethatbothNATOandthe
EuropeanUnionhavesetupspecialunitstocombatwhattheyseeasagrowingthreatnotonlytocivil
discoursebuttothewell-beingofEuropesdemocraticorderandeventoitssecurity.
Thisinformationwar,saidRastislavKacer,aveterandiplomatwhoservedasSlovakiasambassador
toWashingtonandatNATOsheadquartersinBrussels,isjustpartofabiggerstruggle.Whilenot
involvingbloodshed,headded,itisequallyasdangerousasmoreconventionalhostileaction.
FROMOURADVERTISERS
ForMs.Aro,theabuseincreasedsharplylastyearwhen,followinguponreportsintheopposition
Russiannewsmedia,shevisitedSt.PetersburgtoinvestigatetheworkingsofaRussiantrollfactory.
Thebigofficechurnsoutfakenewsandcomment,particularlyonUkraine,andfloodswebsitesand
socialmediawithdenunciationsofRussiascritics.
Inresponsetoherreporting,pro-RussianactivistsinHelsinkiorganizedaprotestoutsidethe
headquartersofYle,accusingitofbeingatrollfactoryitself.Onlyahandfulofpeopleshowedup.
Atthesametime,Ms.Arohasbeenpepperedwithabusiveemails,vilifiedasadrugdealeronsocial
mediasitesandmockedasadelusionalbimboinamusicvideopostedonYouTube.
Therearesomanylayersoffakeryyougetlost,saidMs.Aro,whowasawardedtheFinnishGrand
PrizeforJournalisminMarch.
AsMs.Arosexperiencesillustrate,Finland,acountryatthecenterofRussiasconcernsaboutNATOs
expansiontowarditsborders,hasemergedasaparticularlyactivefrontintheinformationwars.A
memberoftheEuropeanUnionwithan830-mile-longborderwithRussia,Finlandhasstayedoutside
theUnitedStates-ledmilitaryalliancebut,unnervedbyRussianmilitaryactionsinUkraineandits
saber-rattlingintheBalticSea,hasexpandedcooperationwithNATOanddebatedwhethertoapply
forfullmembership.
TodaysHeadlines:EuropeanMorning
GetnewsandanalysisfromEuropeandaroundtheworlddeliveredtoyourinboxeverydayintheEuropeanmorning.
Publicopinionisdeeplydivided,makingFinlandaprimetargetforacampaignbyRussia.
TheirbigthingistokeepFinlandoutofNATO,saidSaaraJantunen,aresearcherattheFinnish
DefenseForcesinHelsinki,wholastyearpublishedabookinFinlandentitledInfo-War.Shesaidthat
she,too,hadbeensavagedonsocialmedia,sometimesbythesameandapparentlyfakecommentators
whohavehoundedMs.Aro.
Theyfilltheinformationspacewithsomuchabuseandconspiracytalkthatevensanepeoplestartto
losetheirminds,sheadded.
Europesmainresponsesofarhasbeentotrytocounteroutrightlies.InNovember,theEuropean
UnionlaunchedDisinformationReview,aweeklycompendiumofpro-Kremlindistortionsand
untruths.
ButfactshavebeenpowerlessagainstatorrentofabuseandridiculetargetedatEuropeanjournalists,
researchersandotherslabeledNATOstooges.
Pro-Russianactivistsinsistthattheyaremerelyexercisingtheirrighttofreespeech,andthattheydo
nottakemoneyorinstructionsfromMoscow.
ThemostabusivemessagesagainstMs.Aroweremostlysentanonymouslyorfromaccountssetup
underfakenamesonFacebookandothersocialmedia.
OneofhermostvocalcriticsinFinland,however,hasopenlydeclaredhisidentity.HeisJohan
Backman,atirelesssupporterofPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiawhohighlightstheblurredlines
betweenstate-sponsoredharassmentandtheexpressionofstronglyheldpersonalviews.
FluentinRussian,Mr.BackmannowspendsmuchofhistimeinMoscow,appearingregularlyinthe
RussiannewsmediaandatconferencesinRussiaasahumanrightsdefender.Healsoservesasthe
representativeinNorthernEuropefortheRussianInstituteforStrategicStudies,astate-funded
researchgroupledbyaSoviet-eraintelligenceofficer.
Mr.Backman,whoalsorepresentstheDonetskPeoplesRepublic,thebreakawaystatesetupwith
RussiansupportineasternUkraine,deniedtargetingMs.Aroaspartofanyinformationwar.Rather,
heinsistedthatRussiawasitselfthevictimofacampaignofdisinformationanddistortionconducted
bytheWest.
InarecentinterviewinMoscow,hesaidthatMs.Arowaspartofthiscampaignandthatshehadtried
tocurtailthefreedomofspeechofRussiassupportersinFinlandbylabelingthemasRussiantrolls.
Allthesame,Mr.Backmanadded,hercomplaintsaboutbeingtargetedforabusehavebeenvery
beneficialforRussiabecausetheyhavemadeothersthinktwiceaboutcriticizingMoscow.
Shesayssheisavictim,andnobodywantstobeavictim,hesaid.Thischangedtheatmospherein
thejournalisticcommunity.
Mr.Backmansaidheusedhisownprivatemeanstofundhisactivitiesinsupportofwhathedescribed
asanentirelydefensivecampaignbyRussiatocounterWesternpropaganda.Hisactivities,however,
invariablyfollowMoscowspoliticalandgeopoliticalscript,particularlyonNATO,whichheregularly
denouncesasatoolforUnitedStatesmilitaryoccupation.
NATOATAGLANCE
TheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationismadeupof26Europeancountries,alongwithCanadaandtheUnited
States.
AlbaniaandCroatiawerethelasttojoin,in2009.
Itsfoundingtreatywassignedby12membersin1949.(Videobelow.)
ItwasintendedasabulwarkagainstSovietinfluenceinEuropeandcommittedmemberstocollectivedefense
policies.
Article5ofthetreatystatesthatanattackononeallyisanattackonall.Itwasinvokedforthefirsttimeafter
Sept.11,2001.
AsidefromNATO,Mr.BackmansbiggestbugbearoflatehasbeenMs.AroandtheRusso-phobic
tendenciesthatshe,inhisview,represents.
JustdaysafterMs.AromadeherfirstappealinSeptember2014forinformationaboutRussiantrolls,
Mr.BackmantoldRussianPeoplesLine,anationalistRussianwebsite,andothermediathatshewasa
well-knownassistantofAmericanandBalticspecialservices.
Aroundthesametime,shereceivedacalllateatnightonhercellphonefromanumberinUkraine.
Nobodyspoke,andallshecouldhearwasgunfire.Thiswasfollowedbytextandemailmessages
denouncingherasaNATOwhoreandamessagepurportingtocomefromherfatherwhodied20
yearsagosayinghewaswatchingher.
Thehardestblow,Ms.Arosaid,cameearlythisyearwhenaFinnish-languagenewssite,MVLehti.net,
whichisbasedinSpainandmostlyfocusesonvilifyingimmigrants,dugupandpublishedcourtrecords
thatshowedshehadbeenconvictedofusingillegalamphetaminesin2004.Shehadbeenfined300
euros.
Thewebsitesheadline:NATOsinformationexpertJessikkaAroturnedouttobeaconvicteddrug
dealer.ItalsopostedphotographsofMs.ArodancinginaslinkyoutfitatanightclubinBangkok.
Mr.BackmanrequestedandreceivedMs.Arosoldcasefilefromthecourtshortlybeforethewebsite
publishedthedocuments.Hedeniedpassingthemontothesite.
ThefalseclaimthatMs.Arowasadrugdealertriggeredanunusualopenlettersignedbymorethan
20Finnisheditorsinfuriatedbywhattheydenouncedasthepoisoningofpublicdebatewithinsults,
defamationandoutrightlies.TheFinnishpolicebegananinvestigationintothewebsitefor
harassmentandhatespeech.
IdontknowifthesepeopleareactingonordersfromRussia,buttheyareclearlywhatLenincalled
usefulidiots,saidMikaPettersson,theeditorofFinlandsnationalnewsagencyandanorganizerof
theeditorsopenletter.TheyareplayingintoPutinspocket.NationalistmovementsinFinlandand
otherEuropeancountrieswanttodestabilizetheEuropeanUnionandNATO,andthisgoesstraight
intoPutinsnarrative.
IljaJanitskin,thefounderandheadofMVLehti,whoisbasedinBarcelona,Spain,saidinresponseto
emailedquestionsthathehadnoconnectionwithRussiaotherthanhissurname.Hispoliticalviews,he
said,areclosertothoseofDonaldJ.Trump,notMr.Putin.
HeaddedthathehadbecomeinterestedinMs.Aroonlyaftersheaccusedhiswebsiteofdistributing
Russianpropaganda.
LikeMr.Backman,hedeniedreceivinganymoneyfromRussiansources,insistingthathiswebsite,
whichinjust18monthshasbecomeoneofFinlandsmostwidelyreadonlinenewssources,finances
itselffromadvertisinganddonationsbyreaders.
Ms.Aroacknowledgedthatshehadusedamphetaminesregularlyinherearly20sbutdismissedasa
totallieclaimsthatshehadbeenorisadrugdealer.
Theygetinsideyourhead,andyoustartthinking:IfIdothis,whatwillthetrollsdonext?shesaid.
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:2016-05-2820:59GMT-07:00
Subject:Ontheradar-----bigtime[ED:Apparently,Ms.AroisnottheonlytargetofRUDEZINFORMnotethe
followingstory(inSpanish)aboutDCCUSURDirectorMykolaHryckowian]
http://slavyangrad.es/2015/12/07/una-cuestion-de-familia-la-transmision-de-los-valores-de-la-ounupa-en-estados-
unidos/

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/29/201611:03:39PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject: VedomostionSavchenko(takingatrumpoutofthewest'shands?)
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/05/30/642877-savchenko-zerkalo

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From: DemStrategyQuestionnaire(viaTurnoutPAC.org)<admin@turnoutpac.org>
Senttime: 05/27/201601:25:49PM
Subject: OneMinuteQuestionnaire
INPUTNEEDED:ClickheretorespondtotheDemocraticStrategy
Questionnaire
Friends--Democratshaveaveryseriousproblemonourhands.
RepublicansareturningouttovoteforDonaldTrumpinrecord-breakingnumbers
whileDemocratsarestayingathome.DemocraticLeaderNancyPelosiadmittedthis
problemistheprimaryreasonDemocratsgotcrushedin2014:
LeaderPelosiis1OO%correct:Democratswillnotbeabletotakebacklost
majoritiesinCongressorkeepTrumpoutoftheWhiteHouseunlessweimprove
ourvoterturnout.
Wehavejustmonthstomobilize,soweneedyourhelp.
TakeourDemocraticStrategyQuestionnairetohelp
usmobilizeDemocraticvotersinNovember
Howdowedoimproveturnout?Weorganize.
Asveteranorganizerswhoveworkedonsomeofthemostcompetitive
Congressionalracesintheentirecountry,weknowwhatittakestoimproveturnout.
IttakesorganizingtopersuadeDemocratswhodontalwaysvotetogettothepolls.
Itsabigeffort,butwehaveprovenstrategiesandknowhowtogetitdone.Wejust
needtheresourcestodoit.
Look,weretryingtobuildasustainableorganizationthatcanimprovevoterturnout
amongDemocratsforelectioncyclestocome.Thisisthefirststep.
TakeourDemocraticStrategyQuestionnairesowedonthavetoface
anotherbiglossinNovember:
http://go.turnoutpac.org/Strategy-Questionnaire
Thankssomuch,
TheProgressiveTurnoutProject
ProgressiveTurnoutProject
P.O.Box215
Northbrook,IL60065-0215
PaidforbytheProgressiveTurnoutProjectandnotauthorizedbyanycandidateor
candidate'scommittee.
Thismessagewassentto:robertotto25@gmail.com|Changeorupdateyouremailaddressbyclickinghere.
TheProgressiveTurnoutProjectisproudlydedicatedtodoingwhatwedobest--connectingwithvotersoneononeandgetting
Democratstothepolls.Tolearnmoreclickhere.
Emailsareacrucialwaytostayintouchwithourtopsupporters.Ifwe'regoingtoincreaseturnoutin2016,weneedyouwithus
everystepoftheway.
Ifyou'dstillliketounsubscribefromouremails,clickhere.Ifyou'dliketoreceivefeweremails,youcanclickhere.Ifyou'dliketo
donatetohelpfundoureffortstoincreaseDemocraticandProgressiveturnoutinthe2016Election,pleaseclickhere.
Senttime: 05/29/201605:57:01AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Trump,ClintonTiedinPolls.WereAlltheWiseMenWrong?|RealClearPolitics
Trump,ClintonTiedinPolls.WereAlltheWiseMenWrong?
ItwasconventionalwisdomamongthepoliticalcognoscentiduringmostoftheprimaryseasonthatDonaldTrumpcould
notwinthegeneralelection.Theevidenceseemedstrong.
Over12monthsofpollingfromMay2015toApril2016,HillaryClintonranaheadofTrumpin63nationalpolls,while
Trumpledherinonlysixandtiedherinthree.Pollsinthedozenorso2012targetstatesshowedsimilarresults.
ButTrumpenthusiastsinsistedtheirmanwouldeasilyprevail.NowMaypollingsuggests,toparaphrasetheformerBritish
PrimeMinisterLordMelbourne,thatwhatallthewisemenpromisedhasnothappenedandwhatallthedamnedfools
saidwouldhappenhascometopass.
ThecurrentRealClearPoliticsaverageofrecentpollsshowsTrumpwith43.4percentandClintonwith43.2percent.The
fivepollsinquestionwereconductedbetweenMay13andMay19,wellafterTrump'sdecisivevictoryinIndianaMay3.
Thosenumbersarenotetchedinstone.His43percentisnotmuchdifferentfromwhathewaspollingagainstClinton
betweenSeptember2015andFebruary2016,butit'sabovehislevelsduringtheheatoftheRepublicancontestinMarch
andApril.
ArticleContinuesBelow
Clinton's43percentisthelowestshe'sbeenaveragingagainstTrumpsincethecyclebegan.It'spossible,thoughnot
assured,thathernumbersmayriseafterBernieSanders'increasinglyaggressivebutdoomedcandidacyends.
Trump'ssky-highunfavorableratingsdeclinedsomewhatafterheclinchedthenomination.It'spossiblethatClinton'srising
unfavorableratings--higherthanTrump'sinsomeMaypolls--maydeclineaswellbythetimesheisofficiallynominated
inPhiladelphiaJuly27.
Notethat,despitethetwocandidates'universalrecognition,thepercentageofundecidedvotersseemsratherhigh,atleast
11percentintheMaypolls.That'snotsurprising,since,asmanycommentatorshavenoted,majoritiesofvotershave
unfavorablefeelingstowardbothnominees--thefirsttimethat'sbeenthecasesincepollingbeganin1935.
Evenso,thepatternsofsupportarefamiliar,inlinewiththeclosepartisandivisionthat'sprevailedforthelasttwo
decades.Theirresistibleforceofcorrosivelynegativepublicopinionmayhaveprevailedinprimaries,wheretwo
candidatesalmostnoonetookseriously12monthsago,TrumpandBernieSanders,havewon41and42percentof
popularvotes.
Butthatforcehasnotsucceeded,sofaratleast,inalteringwhathasbeentheimmoveableobjectofpartisanpolarization.
Trumphasbigmarginsamongmen,whitesandwhiteevangelicals,Clintonamongwomen,blacksandHispanics.More
than80percentofself-identifiedRepublicansbackTrumpandmorethan80percentofself-identifiedDemocratsback
Clinton.
Supportforbothcandidatesiswithinthenarrowrangeof41to46percentofthevoteinthefourMaypollssponsoredby
televisionnetworks--CBS/NewYorkTimes,FoxNews,NBC/WallStreetJournalandABC/WashingtonPost.
ExaminationoftheinternalnumberssuggestsTrumpisrunningworsethanMittRomneyamongwhitecollegegraduates
andbetteramongnon-collegewhites.ClintonseemstoberunningweakerthanBarackObamaamongmen,especially
non-collegewhites.
TherehasbeenmuchfocusonTrump'snegativenumbersamongwomen,butClintondoesevenworseamongnon-
collegewhitemen,only14percentofwhomsupportheraccordingtotheABC/WashingtonPostpoll.That'slessthanthe
20to28percenttheMaynetworkpollsshowTrumpwinningamongHispanics.
Thisyearwasthefirsttimesinceprimarieshavedominatedthenominationprocessthatbothnomineesowetheirvictories
tomajoritiesfromtheirparties'mostdownscaleconstituencies.
AlmostallofClinton'spopularvotemajoritieshavecomefromblackvoters,especiallyintheSouth.Exitpollsshowedher
losingwhitevoterstoSandersineverynon-Southernstatewhereonewasconducted.
Trump'sbiggestmajoritiescame,especiallyinthecrucialMarchprimaries,fromnon-collegewhites.Notfornothingdid
hesayonthenightoftheNevadacaucuses,"Ilovethepoorlyeducated."
ThehigherturnoutthisyearinRepublicanthanDemocraticcontestssuggeststhatTrumpvotersareenergized,while
ClintonmayhavetroubleturningoutheavilyDemocraticvoters,especiallytheyoung.
Trumphasbenefitedfromoneotherthing:thedynasticcandidaciesofJebBush,whowasleadingRepublicanpollswhen
heannounced,andHillaryClinton,whosenumbershavebeenfallingevenasBarackObama'sjobapprovalhasrisen.
Associationwithpastpresidentsdoesn'thelpwhenvoterswantchange.
That'sonemorereasonthewisemenmayturnouttobewrong.
COPYRIGHT2016CREATORS.COM
MichaelBaroneisseniorpoliticalanalystfortheWashingtonExaminer,residentfellowatAmericanEnterpriseInstitute
andlongtimeco-authorofTheAlmanacofAmericanPolitics.
Signuptoreceiveemailalerts
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 05/27/201609:02:58AM
Subject: FW:"Kremlin[PESKOV]saysRussia'INFAVOR'ofreturningDONBASStoUkraine,"themoscowtimes.com,5/27
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,May27,20169:03AM
Subject:"Kremlin[PESKOV]saysRussia'INFAVOR'ofreturningDONBASStoUkraine,"themoscowtimes.com,5/27
SomeinterpretedPeskovsstatementasaninvitationtodialogue,andothersasaBLUFF.
And:[David]CAMERON:G7countriesagreeVITALtoextendRussiasanctions,rferl.org,5/27
And:RussiamovesclosertoCRIMINALIZINGcriticismofnationalanthem,politico.eu,5/27
And:St.VladimirII?VladimirPutinsaysNadiyaSAVCHENKOreleasedtoSHOWMERCY,politico.eu,
5/27
And:SAVCHENKOrelateswhatwordsshewouldliketosaytoPutin,gazeta.ru,5/27
Herwords:LeaveUkrainealone.[OtstanotUkrainy]
And:ThewordsanddeedsofGIRKIN/STRELKOVarebeingstudiedbytheInternationalCourtinThe
Hague:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73230.html?print=1
And:NAVALNYcommentsacidlyontheremovalofthehighlycorruptGENERALMUROVasheadofthe
FSO:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1772550echo/
And:MedvedevwantsRussiasFOODBANextendedtillendof2017,themoscotimes.com,5/27
And:RussianmonumenttoStalinsvictimshighlightsfateofEXECUTIONER[NKVDofficerValter
Vand],http://rferl.org/content/russiasaranskmonumentnkvdvandstalingreatterror/277591
And:DonaldTRUMPexclusive:RussianMOBLINKEDFRAUDSTER[FelixSater]akeyplayerin
presidentialhopefulsbusinessventures,telegraph.co.uk,5/27
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/25/201601:22:14AM
BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>CooperJulian<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>
teagueeliza@aol.comkeith.bush017@gmail.comRichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>Roderic&
To:
MandyLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>
Subject: Fwd:Snyder
Subject:Snyder
HispointsaboutTrumparenoteworthy
TheWarsofVladimirPutin
TimothySnyder
JUNE9,2016ISSUE
PozdrowieniazNoworosji[GreetingsfromNovorossiya]
byPawePieniek
Warsaw:KrytykaPolityczna,240pp.,z34.90
EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:Ukrainian
Lessons]
byKarlSchlgel
Munich:CarlHanser,352pp.,21.90
NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNew
Russia
byPeterPomerantsev
PublicAffairs,241pp.,$25.99
ThomasDworzak/MagnumPhotos

VladimirPutinatanice-skatingeventinSochi,Russia,beforetheOlympics,
April2013

1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,was
understoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.Afterthepeaceful
revolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?
Theruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweaker
statesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonof
SovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussian
migrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.
ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,a
quarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherent
alternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthe
nameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,and
RussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.
WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-
four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizethe
ideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledtoexpect
thattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropean
Union.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasan
instrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,wasdemanding
thatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofits
newEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.
ADVERTISING
inReadinventedbyTeads
Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainian
president,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.The
Russianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,the
Maidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrived
afewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,the
youngmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,people
whowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.
TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturaland
anti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardto
understandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhis
collectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrink
ofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.
Thegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionof
therightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthemass
shootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoa
revolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,his
politicalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremote
control,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswho
hadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregionof
southeasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizea
separatistmovement.1
InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfied
withcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolution
inKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsomeoligarchsto
others.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiations
orelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,
bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchangedeveryonespolitical
calculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpoint
forseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplace
crawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,andunderstoodthatlocaloppositionto
therevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgor
Girkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatist
forces,hadmadeSlovianskhisheadquarters.
UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthe
newauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainian
governmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrestedbythe
separatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthe
localdissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernow
residedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,whichRussian
soldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.
ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurther
RussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.Putinspokethat
monthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveother
regionsofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgel
wasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,
PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasa
principleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.
WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheend
ofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzig
asapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropeanintegration
insistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolved
withintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.Pieniekwascontinuallystruckby
thefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderasfascist,evenas
theyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.What
theymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussia
isafascist.
Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.Becausealmost
allUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutin
callstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.Ashemovedthroughthe
Ukrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,he
foundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussianborder,is
governedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejected
separatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethe
gatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofoughtagainst
separatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2
ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,its
localoligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscow
againsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,
RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatime
whenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreachingother
eastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveinto
DonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.Some
oftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyoftheirregularswere
Chechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodid
inordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasnever
threatened.4Schlgelwrites:
ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,
terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russian
hightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.
Thatlastcategorywasasimportantasalltheothers.
DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthe
cityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.
ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussian
controlwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.
InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupportfrom
localRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.Without
suchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knownin
Ukrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussia
hadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskand
Luhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.
TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmed
forcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpower
todeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseizedfrom
UkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014Kievwasabuzzwith
rumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,Moscowhadto
bringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedtheborder
withtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwere
quicklyshotdown.5
TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.Oneofthe
numerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbasein
KurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthe
marking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfrom
DonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
powertoafarmsteadsouthofthattown.
Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhave
simplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.
MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamtoKuala
Lumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckby
hundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314M
warheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.Theprojectiles
rippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebody
partssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesat
itscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheirbaggagescattered
overaradiusofthirtymiles.6
SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.The
youngjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesof
wreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirst
reporteronthescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldon
Russiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthad
shotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainian
authoritieshadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmade
amistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,the
victimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.
Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthe
disaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscall
thezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasierto
mockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percent
in2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamedtheir
owncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7
HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactof
RussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussian
invasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheidea
thatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemy
governedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?Considerthedarkjoke
nowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:Oursonwaskilledinaction
inUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.
BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeter
Pomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywasthe
consequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-called
Ukrainiancrisis,maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.
AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,Russiansand
Ukrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.
UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,andapropaganda
apparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.Schlgelobservesthat
theRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversify
theeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywhen
priceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,
militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussian
choicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatotherobservershavefound
theRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthan
thebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussians
todefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermitoutsiders,asSchlgelnotes,to
discussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.
PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhe
becamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfas
thememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.Itwould
beaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemed
todosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrom
buildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeledgirlsseeking
security,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.
Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedand
deniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicidemodelswerecirculated
inMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.
JeromeSessini/MagnumPhotos
Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,Maidan
Square,Kiev,February2014
PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunder
statecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostages
duringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscowtheater.
Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,
Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,and
thestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreor
lesstimeondifferentchannels.Theirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmthe
inevitabilityofPutin.
AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespitting
nationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,
comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.Pomerantsev
considersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimate
chemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:
entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscalandlegalreviewsatthe
whimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).
Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteis
black,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthebusinesswoman.Thereisnoreality.
Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.
AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodern
world,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailed
inthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.
ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsified
parliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,and
Russianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussian
eliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheirconviction
thatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)
ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactofthe
protestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.
TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeign
leadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.Inthis
wayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignoredevenas
Russiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.
Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembraced
nationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationofthe
Eurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstood
thiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.Ratherthandwelling
onthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmedia
definedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.
TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwas
calledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendings
gavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomicdecline
continued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.Through
September2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedto
Syria.
ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarily
resolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavision
fortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainstthe
Westwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideits
languagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despite
appearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectly
justified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.
Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovement
arousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopular
movementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,since
nothingismoredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraine
underRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesand
thousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeen
murdered.9
Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,and
squalidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?Thisisthe
essenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethe
termmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdown
thePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththeconnections
betweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceofthe
revolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpolitical
thought.
WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwitha
humanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficer
whohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Until
thenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervened
tostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewashearing,she
asked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBman
gavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,and
thatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuchlies.
AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromised
fraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepart
fromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwas
possible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instability
andchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurable
thoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.It
wouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofa
barrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin
1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas$34.
WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoil
waspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.
EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferent
lessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofa
lifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,
istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.
Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirectedto
ParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.Whydidsofewpeoplewhoidentify
withtheleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthe
counterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweristhat
manyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andso
forgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelis
fundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiato
knowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineas
anhourofverificationandself-verification.
TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgeland
Pieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsight
ofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdid
otherbraveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,he
benefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatists
believedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfoundit
easiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.
Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhadboth
beenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergetting
beaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationship
going.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestlyexemplifies
theolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworld
ofbiglies.
Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohis
Westernfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethe
publicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeis
littleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,says
Pomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthetwentieth
centurywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyall
possibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonment
ofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthebottomlessskepticism
thatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgel
concludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,
andsomethingsarepossible.
1. 1
ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,Aggression
AgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternational
Law(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).
2. 2
AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:Ukrainianvolunteersandconscriptsare
moreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyare
fightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.
SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedsto
Know(OxfordUniversityPress,2015),p.18.
3. 3
Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,
DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,
March6,2014.
4. 4
InFebruary2014Ukrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthat
allowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfact
repealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnot
affectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

5. 5
InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizing
theneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryrolein
bothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,press
conferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewho
carriedoutcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussian
militaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutions
asinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.
6. 6
BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossess
therelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforward
reconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedon
October13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedout
bytheinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.
Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwo
describethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember
2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiers
believedtohavepersonalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshooting
downofMH17.
7. 7
LevadaCenter,reportofJuly27,2015.
8. 8
Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressure
ofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percent
thresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentand
Svoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).
9. 9
SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,Open
Democracy,January14,2016.
10. 10
SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePrague
Spring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).
11. 11
Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasier
tropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:Storiesfrom
Ukraine(London:AllenLane,2015).
From: AndrewWeiss<weissandrews@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/23/201602:58:45PM
Re:MichaelMcFaulonTwitter:"Whyisitfashionablethesedaystoconsideramateurs,uneducated&untrainedgoodforrunningourforeign
Subject:
policy?"
SeemslikeonlyamatteroftimeuntilGOPeminenceslikeHadley/Ricethrowintowelandannounce
they'llhelpTrump...
>OnMay22,2016,at12:14PM,Bobwrote:
>
>
>http://mobile.twitter.com/McFaul/status/733343888933552130
>
>
>SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 05/26/201610:28:23AM
Subject: FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"
From:VolodymyrZarycky[mailto:cusurwaz@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,May26,20169:55AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"-...
Date:Thu,May26,2016at11:47AM
Subject:TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
ReviewofaPolishandaGermanbookonRussiasincursionsintoUkraineandofPeterPomerantsevsNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible
And:PUTINSCYBERWAR:RussiasStatecraftintheFifthDomain,ReportbyTheHenryJacksonSociety,http://relayto.com/the-henry-jackslon-society/YDD2kg11
And:BrianWHITMORE,UkrainesNEWHOPE[NadiaSavchenko],http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaines-new-hope/27757341.html
NadiaSavchenkocouldandIstresscouldjustturnouttobeUkrainesVaclavHavel,oritsLechWalesa,oritsNelsonMandela.
And:UkraineBANSGORBACHEVover[his]supportforCRIMEAANNEXATION,reuters.com,5/26
UkrainehasbannedformerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevfromentryforthenextfiveyearsoverhissupportforRussiasseizureofCrimea
And:SAVCHENKOtojoinRadasnationalsecurityanddefensecommittee,unian.info,5/26
And:Putinhasremovedthehead[GeneralEvgeniiMUROV]oftheFederalProtectionService[FSO],http://www.newsru.com/russia/26may2016/fso_print,html
And:JamesSHERR(ChathamHouse),Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction,themoscowtimes.com,5/26
And:ElectionsPutin-style:Scandalsinsteadofprimaries,oppositionbeingremovedfromtheprimariesatthewhimoftheauthorities,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73227.html?print=1
And:RBCcorrespondentreports[BALLOTBOX]STUFFINGviolationsatUnitedRussiapartyprimaries,meduza.io,5/23[inEnglish]
And:OnballotboxSTUFFINGinMurmansk:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73211.html?print=1
Date:Thu,May26,2016at12:02PM
Subject:Ukraine:HC,USOSCE,NYT,WP(2),NYRB
Butfirst,incaseyoumissedit:
HELSINKICOMMISSIONCHAIR,CO-CHAIRWELCOMESAVCHENKORELEASE
URGERUSSIATOCOMPLYWITHMINSKAGREEMENTS
WASHINGTONFollowingtodaysreleaseofUkrainianfighterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofromprisoninRussia,RepresentativeChrisSmith(NJ-04),ChairmanoftheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,andSenatorRogerWicker(MS),Co-
ChairmanoftheCommission,issuedthefollowingstatement:
WewelcomeNadiyaslong-overduerelease,butwemustnotforgetaboutotherUkrainiancitizensunjustlyimprisonedinRussia.WemustalsorememberthatRussiastilloccupiesCrimeaandcontinuesitsaggressionineasternUkraine,
bringingmiseryandsufferingtomillionsofUkrainians.
RussiashouldhonortheMinskagreementswhichitviolateswithimpunityifthereistobepeacefulresolutiontotheconflict.Aboveall,RussianeedstogetoutofUkraine.
LastSeptember,theHousepassedaresolutioncallingforSavchenkosrelease,whichwasstrengthenedbyChairmanSmithsamendmentcallingfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstindividualsresponsiblefortheimprisonmentofSavchenkoandother
UkrainiancitizensillegallyincarceratedinRussia.
AresolutionsponsoredbyCo-ChairmanWickerandHelsinkiCommissionRankingSenateCommissionerBenCardin(MD)callingforherreleasepassedtheSenateinFebruary2015.
###
TheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,alsoknownastheU.S.HelsinkiCommission,isanindependentagencyoftheFederalGovernmentchargedwithmonitoringcompliancewiththeHelsinkiAccordsandadvancing
comprehensivesecuritythroughpromotionofhumanrights,democracy,andeconomic,environmentalandmilitarycooperationin57countries.TheCommissionconsistsofninemembersfromtheU.S.Senate,ninefromtheHouseof
Representatives,andonemembereachfromtheDepartmentsofState,Defense,andCommerce.

TodayinVienna:
USMissiontotheOSCE(2)
OntheReturnofNadiyaSavchenkotoUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/return-nadiya-savchenko-ukraine-statement-pc/
TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesNadiyaSavchenkosreleaseandreturntoUkraine.Nearlytwoyearsago,shewasabductedineasternUkraineandsmuggledagainstherwillintoRussia.Ms.Savchenkoenduredrelentlessinterrogations,solitaryconfinement,
andforcedpsychiatricevaluation.Throughitall,sheremainedsteadfast,resilient,andloyaltohercountry.
ThereturnofMs.Savchenkoshouldnowbefollowedbythereleaseofallhostagesandunlawfullydetainedpersons,includingOlegSentsov,GennadyAfanasiev,OleksanderKolchenko,YuriSoloshenko,StansilavKlikh,andMykolaKarpyuk,asRussiacommitted
todoundertheMinskagreements.WeencourageRussiatotakefurtherstepstocompleteimplementationofitsMinskcommitments,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccessfortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbythe
conflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturntoUkraineoffullcontroloveritsinternational
border.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
USMissiontotheOSCE
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
May26,2016
DespiteeffortstobuildontheEasterceasefirerecommitmentandcreateabettersecurityenvironment,thisweekbeganwiththehighestcasualtiesincurredsinceAugustoflastyear.ThesecurityzoneineasternUkrainecontinuestobedefinedbytensionand
instability,asSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)DeputyChiefMonitorAlexanderHugsaidthisweek.
CombinedRussian-separatistforcesincreasedtheirattackswhilesimultaneouslyobstructingSMMmonitors,preventingthemfromaccountingforthoseceasefireviolations.CoordinatedattacksbycombinedRussian-separatistforcesonMay24resultedinthe
heaviestlossessufferedbyUkrainianforcesinasingledaythisyear:sevenkilledandninewounded.
Russiacontinuestoarm,train,andfightalongsideseparatistforces,andthesecurityzoneremainsawashinheavyweapons,tanks,armoredpersonnelcarriers,andanti-aircraftguns.Theseweaponsappearinpartoftheconflictzoneoneday,vanishthenext,andthen
reappearsomewhereelse,underminingconfidencebetweenthesidesandeffortstowardasustainableceasefireandMinskimplementation.OnMay15alone,theSMMcounted81tanksonseparatist-heldterritory.Regrettably,combinedRussian-separatistforces
havenothesitatedtoputtheseweaponstouse,poundingresidentialareasofAvdiivkawithmortarsandartilleryfireonMay21and22,killingtwoUkrainiansoldiers,woundingeightothers,anddamagingordestroyingsixhomes.Theseattackswerepremeditated
andcameshortlyaftercombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisconnectedtheSMMsstaticobservationcamerasinDonetsk,camerastheyhadpromisedtheSMMcouldoperatewithoutinterference.
Colleagues,thePermanentCouncilhasoftenheardtheRussianFederationcallforintensivemonitoringofhotspots.WecallonRussiatodirecttheseparatistsitbackstoimmediatelyallowtheSMMfullaccesstotheareasundertheircontrolandtorestoreits
cameras,whichareessentialtomonitoringhotspotsthataretoodangerousformonitorstopatrol.
ItisessentialthatRussiaandtheseparatistsagreetoadisengagementplan,whichcanthenbeendorsedbytheTrilateralContactGroupasquicklyaspossible.Manyoftheproposedlocationsfordisengagementareatcrossingpointsonthelineofcontact.Inthis
regard,wenotethattheGovernmentofUkrainehasalreadytakenstepsthatwillsupportdisengagementefforts.Inkeepingwithitsagreementtoopenupmorecrossingpoints,Ukrainehasclearedminesandconstructedpropercrossingfacilitiesatitscheckpointin
Zolote.Theseparatistshavenotupheldtheircommitmentsneithertoallowcivilianstocrossnortopullbacktheheavyweaponsthatputlivesatrisk.Civiliansaresubjectedtokilometers-longlines,andareexposedtotheever-presentriskofgettingcaughtin
crossfire.We,therefore,underscoretheneedforanagreementondisengagementnotonlytostabilizetheceasefire,buttoimprovethelivesofpeoplelivingonbothsidesofthecontactline.
Colleagues,overthelastfewmonthsfreshevidencehascometolightofRussiascontinuedsupplyofsophisticatedmilitaryequipmenttotheseparatistsinclearcontraventionofmeasure10oftheMinskPackageofMeasures.ASMMUAVrecentlytookaphoto
ofaRussianOrlan-10UAVflyingfromthedirectionofseparatist-heldpartsofDonetsk.TheOrlan-10isaRussiansystemitisnotcommerciallyavailableandcanonlybeflownbytrainedoperators.TheUkrainianmilitaryreportedthatanarmedUAVdropped
munitionsonUkrainiansoldiersonMay18.TheSMMonceagainfoundevidenceofRussianjammingequipment,anIVOMineralnyantenna,onseparatist-heldterritoryonApril12.Thepresenceofsophisticatedmilitarytechnologyonthebattlefieldexposesthe
fallacyofRussiascontentionthatthisisaninternalconflictitisRussiawhichinstigatedthisconflict,Russiawhichhasfueledit,andRussiawhichmustnowacttoendit.
Resolvingthisconflictrequiresthereturnofseparatist-controlledareasofDonetskandLuhansktoUkrainiancontrol.OnthistheMinskagreementsarecrystalclear.WethereforecondemnthedecisionbytheRussianFederationtoacceptphonyseparatist
passportsasvalidforcrossingbetweenUkraineandtheRussianFederation.
InRussia-occupiedCrimea,Russiacontinuestoviolatetherightsofthosewhoopposetheoccupation,includingmembersofreligiousandethnicminoritiesindefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitments.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatarmedia.
Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTataractivists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.HavingbannedtheMejlisthelegal,legitimaterepresentativebodyoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleRussian
authoritieshaveacceleratedacrackdownonitsleadership.OnMay12,theDeputyChairmanoftheCrimeanTatarMejlis,IlmiUmerov,wasarrested,alongwiththreeothers.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatsanctionsrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationends.AndwejointheEUinmanytimesreaffirmingthatsanctionsimposedupontheRussianFederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
Note:VariationsofWPandNYTarticlesIsentoutyesterdayonthereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkoappearinprinteditionsofthosepaperstoday.
TheNewYorkTimes
GermanForeignMinisterSteinmeierSaysExtendingRussiaSanctionsMoreDifficult
ByREUTERSMAY26,2016,6:30A.M.E.D.T.
VILNIUSAnagreementonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyrunoutonJuly31hasbecomemoredifficultwithgrowingoppositionfromsomeEUcountries,Germany'sforeignministersaidonThursday.
EuropeanUnioneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiawereintroducedforoneyearinJuly2014inresponsetoitsactionsinUkraineandtwiceextendedin2015.
"WeareawarethatresistanceintheEUtoextendingthesanctionstowardsRussiahasincreased,"Frank-WalterSteinmeierwasquotedbyLithuania'sBNSnewsagencysayinginaninterview.
"Itwillbemoredifficultthanitwaslastyeartofindacommonpositiononthisissue."
GermanywantstokeepthesanctionsuntiltheMinskpeaceaccordsbetweenRussiaandUkraineareimplemented,Steinmeiersaid.
"Onethingisforsure.WecannotignoreRussia'sannexationofCrimeainviolationofinternationallawandthedestabilisationofEasternUkraine,"hesaid.
The28-strongEUneedsunanimitytokeepthesanctionsinplaceandthebloc'sunityhasbeenincreasinglytestedonthat.
LastweekdiplomatsandofficialstoldReuterstheEUwasstillontracktorenewthem,thoughanextensioncouldbecontestedandonlyshort-term.
Italy,Greece,Cyprus,HungaryandBulgariaareamongEUstatesscepticalthatsanctionsshouldbeextended,diplomatssaid,facingoffagainstBritain,Sweden,PolandandtheBalticstates.
(ReportingByAndriusSytasEditingbyMarkJohn)
TheWashingtonPost/AP
GorbachevbarredfromvisitingUkraineforCrimearemarks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/gorbachev-barred-from-visiting-ukraine-for-crimea-remarks/2016/05/26/c3aede60-2348-11e6-b944-52f7b1793dae_story.html
May26at9:50AM
MOSCOWTheUkrainianintelligenceagencySBUsaysithasbarredthelastleaderoftheSovietUnion,MikhailGorbachev,fromvisitingUkraineforthenextfiveyears.
TheSBUsaidinastatementThursdaythatthiswasareactiontoGorbachevspubliccondoningofthe2014RussianannexationofCrimea.
TheSundayTimesquoted85-yearoldGorbachevassayingthathewouldhaveactedthesamewayasRussianPresidentVladimirPutinifhehadfoundhimselfinasimilarsituation.
GorbachevoversawthecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991andhasbeenlaudedworldwideforencouragingthereunificationofGermanyandlargelyallowingformerSovietsatellitesineasternEuropetobreakawayfromMoscowsorbit.
Andforallofyoucheese-eatersoutthere.And,yes,thisisUkrainerelated:
TheWashingtonPost
Americacanteatitswayoutofthismassivecheeseproblem
ByCharlesLaneOpinionwriter
May25at7:21PM
Asifwedidnthaveenoughtoworryaboutalready,herecomesanewissue:TheGreatCheeseGlutof2016.TheWallStreetJournalreportsthatasofMarch31,1.19billionpoundshadaccumulatedincommercialcold-storagefreezersacrosstheUnitedStates,
thelargeststockpileever.
Thisaffectsanentireglobalindustry,fromWisconsinDellstoWholeFoodsshelves.YeteachAmericanwouldhavetoeatanextra3poundsofcheesethisyear,ontopofthe36poundswealreadyconsumepercapita,toeliminatethebigyellowmountain.Evenfora
societythatpilesthestuffonsandwichesandrollsitintopizzacrusts,thatsatallorder.
Thanks,Obama!
Justkidding.ItsmorelikeThanks,Putin.InAugust2014,hebannedEuropeanUnionagriculturalimportsaspaybackforE.U.sanctionspunishingRussiasinvasionofUkraine.PutinstruckjustastheEuropeanUnionwasendingdairyproductionlimits,sotheloss
oftheRussianmarketwasdoublypainfultoE.U.producersandrenderedthemdesperateformarketselsewhere.ThrowinastrongerdollarduetoFederalReservepolicy(thanks,JanetYellen)etvoila!U.S.cheeseimportsarerising.
Readmore:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-cant-eat-its-way-out-of-this-massive-cheese-problem/2016/05/25/976e96c4-228a-11e6-9e7f-57890b612299_story.html
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
TimothySnyder
Read:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/06/09/the-wars-of-vladimir-putin/?pagination=false&printpage=true
From:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>
Subject:Fw:VladdyPutlerbySnyder
To:StephanieKarpishka<stefakarpishka@gmail.com>
Cc:MyronSwidersky<sverlyk@aol.com>,AndrijBARAN<litzars@msn.com>,22MORE
Pryvit May 26th, 2016.
Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.
OnThursday,May26,20169:48AM,GeorgeMakohin<gmmok@att.net>wrote:
Excellent,excellent,excellentarticlebyProf.Snyder.
HeactuallyhasgonetothetroubleoflearningUkrainian,andwhenheappearedonAndrewKulikov'sshow,FreedomofSpeech,onICTV,heactuallyspokeUkrainian.
Hereisaquotefromthearticleabouttheschizoid"non-soldiersfromRussia"whohave"notinvaded"Ukraine:
HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasionwhileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.
Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

image TheWarsofVladimirPutin
ThenewRussianwarsarea
BonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,

temporarilyresolvingdomestictensions
indoomedforeignadventures,but
lackingavision...
Viewonwww.nybooks.com PreviewbyYahoo

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TimothySnyder
The Wars of Vladimir Putin JUNE9,2016ISSUE
byPawePieniek
EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:UkrainianLessons]
byKarlSchlgel
NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNewRussia
byPeterPomerantsev
1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,wasunderstoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.AfterthepeacefulrevolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?The
ruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweakerstatesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonofSovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussianmigrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.
ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,aquarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherentalternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthenameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,andRussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.
WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizetheideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledto
expectthattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasaninstrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,was
demandingthatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofitsnewEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.
Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainianpresident,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.TheRussianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,theMaidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrivedafewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,
theyoungmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,peoplewhowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.
TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturalandanti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardtounderstandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhiscollectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrinkofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.ThegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionoftherightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthe
massshootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoarevolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,hispoliticalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremotecontrol,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswhohadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregion
ofsoutheasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizeaseparatistmovement.1
InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfiedwithcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolutioninKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsome
oligarchstoothers.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiationsorelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchanged
everyonespoliticalcalculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpointforseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplacecrawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,and
understoodthatlocaloppositiontotherevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgorGirkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatistforces,hadmadeSlovianskhis
headquarters.
UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthenewauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainiangovernmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrested
bytheseparatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthelocaldissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernowresidedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,
whichRussiansoldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.
ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurtherRussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.PutinspokethatmonthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveotherregions
ofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgelwasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasaprincipleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.
WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheendofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzigasapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropean
integrationinsistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolvedwithintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.PieniekwascontinuallystruckbythefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderas
fascist,evenastheyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.Whattheymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussiaisafascist.
Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.BecausealmostallUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutincallstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.AshemovedthroughtheUkrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,hefoundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussian
border,isgovernedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejectedseparatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethegatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofought
againstseparatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2
ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,itslocaloligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscowagainsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatimewhenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreaching
othereastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveintoDonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.SomeoftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyofthe
irregularswereChechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodidinordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasneverthreatened.4Schlgelwrites:
ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russianhightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.
DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthecityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussiancontrolwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupport
fromlocalRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.WithoutsuchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knowninUkrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussiahadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskandLuhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.
TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmedforcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpowertodeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseized
fromUkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014KievwasabuzzwithrumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,MoscowhadtobringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedthe
borderwithtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwerequicklyshotdown.5
TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.OneofthenumerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbaseinKurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthemarking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfromDonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhavesimplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamto
KualaLumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckbyhundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314MwarheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.The
projectilesrippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebodypartssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesatitscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheir
baggagescatteredoveraradiusofthirtymiles.6
SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.TheyoungjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesofwreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirstreporteron
thescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldonRussiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthadshotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainianauthorities
hadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmadeamistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,thevictimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.
Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthedisaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscallthezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasiertomockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percentin2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamed
theirowncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7
HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactofRussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussianinvasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheideathatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemygovernedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.
BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeterPomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywastheconsequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-calledUkrainiancrisis,
maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.
AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,RussiansandUkrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,anda
propagandaapparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.SchlgelobservesthattheRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversifytheeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-
firstcenturywhenpriceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussianchoicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatother
observershavefoundtheRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthanthebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussianstodefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermit
outsiders,asSchlgelnotes,todiscussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.
PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhebecamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfasthememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.It
wouldbeaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemedtodosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrombuildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeled
girlsseekingsecurity,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedanddeniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicide
modelswerecirculatedinMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.
Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,MaidanSquare,Kiev,February2014
PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunderstatecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostagesduringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscow
theater.Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,andthestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreorlesstimeondifferentchannels.TheirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmtheinevitabilityofPutin.
AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespittingnationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.
Pomerantsevconsidersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimatechemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscaland
legalreviewsatthewhimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteisblack,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthe
businesswoman.Thereisnoreality.Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.
AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodernworld,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailedinthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsifiedparliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,andRussianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussianeliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheir
convictionthatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)
ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactoftheprotestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeignleadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.InthiswayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignored
evenasRussiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.
Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembracednationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationoftheEurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstoodthiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.RatherthandwellingonthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmediadefinedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.
TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwascalledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendingsgavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomic
declinecontinued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.ThroughSeptember2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedtoSyria.
ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarilyresolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavisionfortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainsttheWestwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideitslanguagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despiteappearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectlyjustified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.
Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovementarousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopularmovementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,sincenothingis
moredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraineunderRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesandthousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeenmurdered.9
Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,andsqualidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?ThisistheessenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethetermmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdownthePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththe
connectionsbetweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceoftherevolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpoliticalthought.
WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwithahumanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficerwhohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Untilthenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervenedtostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewas
hearing,sheasked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBmangavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,andthatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuch
lies.
AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromisedfraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepartfromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwaspossible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instabilityandchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurablethoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.ItwouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofabarrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas
$34.WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoilwaspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.
EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferentlessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofalifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirected
toParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.WhydidsofewpeoplewhoidentifywiththeleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthecounterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweris
thatmanyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andsoforgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelisfundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiatoknowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineasanhourofverificationandself-verification.
TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgelandPieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsightofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdidother
braveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,hebenefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatistsbelievedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfounditeasiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhad
bothbeenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergettingbeaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationshipgoing.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestly
exemplifiestheolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworldofbiglies.
Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohisWesternfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethepublicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeislittleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,saysPomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthe
twentiethcenturywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyallpossibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonmentofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthe
bottomlessskepticismthatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgelconcludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,andsomethingsarepossible.
ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,AggressionAgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternationalLaw(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).
AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:UkrainianvolunteersandconscriptsaremoreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyarefightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedstoKnow(OxfordUniversity
Press,2015),p.18.
Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,March6,2014.
InFebruary2014UkrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthatallowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfactrepealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnotaffectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizingtheneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryroleinbothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,pressconferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewhocarried
outcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussianmilitaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutionsasinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.
BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossesstherelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforwardreconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedonOctober13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedoutby
theinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwodescribethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiersbelievedtohave
personalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshootingdownofMH17.
Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressureofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percentthresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentandSvoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).
SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,OpenDemocracy,January14,2016.
10.10
SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePragueSpring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).
11
Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasiertropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:StoriesfromUkraine(London:AllenLane,2015).

From:VRT
Subject:HOPEYOUCAUGHTTHIS:TakingWarSeriously
TakingWarSeriously:Russia-NATOShowdownNoLongerJustFiction
ByJamesSherr
May.25201619:24
Lastedited19:24
YvesHerman/ReutersANATOflagfliesattheAllianceheadquartersinBrussels.
NATOsformerDeputySupremeAlliedCommander,GeneralSirRichardShirreffsnewbook,2017:WarWithRussia,isaworkoffiction.ButitssubjectaclashbetweenNATOandRussiaasearlyasnext
yearisnotcompletelyfanciful.
WhenRussiaattackedUkrainein2014,italsoattackedtheHelsinki-basedsecurityorderofEurope.Inplaceofthissystem,PresidentVladimirPutiniscallingforarevivedYaltasystem,basedonspheresof
influenceandrespect.HealsohasinvokedthebordersofhistoricRussiaandproclaimedarighttodefendRussiancompatriotsabroad.
AndiftreatiesandagreementsarenotsacrosancttotheKremlin,whyshouldNATObordersbesacrosanct?ItisonlyreasonablethatNATOsBalticalliesaskthisquestionandthatothers,beginningwithTurkey,
dosoaswell.
SofiaMiroyedova
Theirconcernsareheightenedbymilitarydevelopmentsassignificantastodayspoliticalones.SincethewarwithGeorgiain2008,Russiahasmadeasteady,cumulativeinvestmentinthecapacitytowagelocal JamesSherr
andregionalwarthroughouttheinteriorandontheperipheryoftheformerU.S.S.R.Thismeansfull-spectrum,non-linearwar,fromnon-attributableattacksbypolitelittlementofirstuseofnuclearweapons.Italso
meansinformationwar,fromdisinformationtocyberattacks,andacoordinatedefforttomobilizethestate.
Whatisthepurposeoftheinvestment?TheshortansweristowageproactivedefenseagainstgeopoliticalandcivilizationalencirclementbytheWest.ThatstatesonRussiasperipherymightwelcomeWesternencroachmentisgrist
tothemillofthoseinRussiawhoassessthreatsandrespondtothem.InsidetheKremlinsfebrileworld,anunbrokenchainofmalignintentconnectsNATOandEUenlargement,humanitarianinterventions,coloredrevolutionsand
regimechanges,culminatingwithRussiaitself.ToaskinthesecircumstanceswhetherRussiaspolicyisoffensiveordefensiveistoplaywithwords.
TodaytheBalticstatesarethreatenedpolitically.TheaimofRussianpolicyistopersuadethemthat,insideoroutsidetheEUandNATO,theylieinagreyzoneandshouldbehaveaccordingly.Tothisend,military-forcegroupswitha
capacitytoseizeRigaandTallinnin60hoursareanasset,evenifitwouldbefollytoemploytheminpractice.UntilNATOtakesstepstorectifythemilitarybalance,Russiawillusefearasaweapontounderminethepoliticalbalance.
ButwhatistheriskthattheBalticswillbeattackedmilitarily?SinceNATOcannotknow,itmustnotallowadangerousimbalanceofforcestoarise.Unfortunately,italreadyhasarisen.From1991to2008,theWestbelievedthere
wouldbenomilitarythreatsinEurope,andnationalarmedforceswererestructuredaccordingly.TheimpactoftheGeorgianwarontheseorthodoxieswasminimal.ButCrimeasannexationhaslaunchedanintellectualrevolution.
Thoseatitscuttingedgearerealistswhoknowthatvulnerabilitiescannotberepairedbysummitdeclarationsandband-aids.
TheyalsoknowthatRussiasweaknessesareastellingasitsstrengths.Today,RussiahasanenhancedversionofthearmythatDefenseMinisterSergeiShoiguspredecessor,AnatolySerdyukov,aspiredtobuild.Theironyisthat
hewasthefirstRussiandefenseministertoremoveNATOasthebaselineofRussiandefensesufficiency.
Thecoreoftodaysmilitarycapabilityliesin30-40maneuverunits,nuclearanddual-usestrikesystemsandmulti-layeredairdefense.Thatisaformidablecapabilityforlimitedconflict,butitisnotthecapabilityRussiasGeneralStaff
woulddesignforfull-scalewaragainstNATO.Russiasambitiouslonger-termplansconfirmasmuch.ButtheseplansarerunningintotheusualRussianbuffershuman,industrialandinstitutionalandnotallofthemcanbe
plannedoutofexistence,leastofallinadamagedanddeterioratingeconomy.
Therefore,thechallengeforNATOisnodifferentthanitusedtobeinWestBerlin:topersuadeRussiathatanywarmeansfull-scalewar.Tothisend,itisnotnecessarytodenyRussiaavictoryintheBalticstates.Itisnecessaryto
denyitaquickvictory.Thisisadoabletask,butthatdoesnotmeanitwillbedone.TherealsoisnocertaintythatPutinsChekisttestingandprobingofweaknesswillnotprovokeatougherresponsethanhecansafelymanage.

JamesSherrisAssociateFellow,ChathamHouse
Senttime: 05/26/201610:28:23AM
Subject: FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"
From:VolodymyrZarycky[mailto:cusurwaz@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,May26,20169:55AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"-...
Subject:TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
ReviewofaPolishandaGermanbookonRussiasincursionsintoUkraineandofPeterPomerantsevsNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible
And:PUTINSCYBERWAR:RussiasStatecraftintheFifthDomain,ReportbyTheHenryJacksonSociety,http://relayto.com/the-henry-jackslon-society/YDD2kg11
And:BrianWHITMORE,UkrainesNEWHOPE[NadiaSavchenko],http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaines-new-hope/27757341.html
NadiaSavchenkocouldandIstresscouldjustturnouttobeUkrainesVaclavHavel,oritsLechWalesa,oritsNelsonMandela.
And:UkraineBANSGORBACHEVover[his]supportforCRIMEAANNEXATION,reuters.com,5/26
UkrainehasbannedformerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevfromentryforthenextfiveyearsoverhissupportforRussiasseizureofCrimea
And:SAVCHENKOtojoinRadasnationalsecurityanddefensecommittee,unian.info,5/26
And:Putinhasremovedthehead[GeneralEvgeniiMUROV]oftheFederalProtectionService[FSO],http://www.newsru.com/russia/26may2016/fso_print,html
And:JamesSHERR(ChathamHouse),Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction,themoscowtimes.com,5/26
And:ElectionsPutin-style:Scandalsinsteadofprimaries,oppositionbeingremovedfromtheprimariesatthewhimoftheauthorities,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73227.html?print=1
And:RBCcorrespondentreports[BALLOTBOX]STUFFINGviolationsatUnitedRussiapartyprimaries,meduza.io,5/23[inEnglish]
And:OnballotboxSTUFFINGinMurmansk:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73211.html?print=1
Date:Thu,May26,2016at12:02PM
Subject:Ukraine:HC,USOSCE,NYT,WP(2),NYRB
Butfirst,incaseyoumissedit:
HELSINKICOMMISSIONCHAIR,CO-CHAIRWELCOMESAVCHENKORELEASE
URGERUSSIATOCOMPLYWITHMINSKAGREEMENTS
WASHINGTONFollowingtodaysreleaseofUkrainianfighterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofromprisoninRussia,RepresentativeChrisSmith(NJ-04),ChairmanoftheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,andSenatorRogerWicker(MS),Co-
ChairmanoftheCommission,issuedthefollowingstatement:
WewelcomeNadiyaslong-overduerelease,butwemustnotforgetaboutotherUkrainiancitizensunjustlyimprisonedinRussia.WemustalsorememberthatRussiastilloccupiesCrimeaandcontinuesitsaggressionineasternUkraine,
bringingmiseryandsufferingtomillionsofUkrainians.
RussiashouldhonortheMinskagreementswhichitviolateswithimpunityifthereistobepeacefulresolutiontotheconflict.Aboveall,RussianeedstogetoutofUkraine.
LastSeptember,theHousepassedaresolutioncallingforSavchenkosrelease,whichwasstrengthenedbyChairmanSmithsamendmentcallingfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstindividualsresponsiblefortheimprisonmentofSavchenkoandother
UkrainiancitizensillegallyincarceratedinRussia.
AresolutionsponsoredbyCo-ChairmanWickerandHelsinkiCommissionRankingSenateCommissionerBenCardin(MD)callingforherreleasepassedtheSenateinFebruary2015.
###
TheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,alsoknownastheU.S.HelsinkiCommission,isanindependentagencyoftheFederalGovernmentchargedwithmonitoringcompliancewiththeHelsinkiAccordsandadvancing
comprehensivesecuritythroughpromotionofhumanrights,democracy,andeconomic,environmentalandmilitarycooperationin57countries.TheCommissionconsistsofninemembersfromtheU.S.Senate,ninefromtheHouseof
Representatives,andonemembereachfromtheDepartmentsofState,Defense,andCommerce.

TodayinVienna:
USMissiontotheOSCE(2)
OntheReturnofNadiyaSavchenkotoUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/return-nadiya-savchenko-ukraine-statement-pc/
TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesNadiyaSavchenkosreleaseandreturntoUkraine.Nearlytwoyearsago,shewasabductedineasternUkraineandsmuggledagainstherwillintoRussia.Ms.Savchenkoenduredrelentlessinterrogations,solitaryconfinement,
andforcedpsychiatricevaluation.Throughitall,sheremainedsteadfast,resilient,andloyaltohercountry.
ThereturnofMs.Savchenkoshouldnowbefollowedbythereleaseofallhostagesandunlawfullydetainedpersons,includingOlegSentsov,GennadyAfanasiev,OleksanderKolchenko,YuriSoloshenko,StansilavKlikh,andMykolaKarpyuk,asRussiacommitted
todoundertheMinskagreements.WeencourageRussiatotakefurtherstepstocompleteimplementationofitsMinskcommitments,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccessfortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbythe
conflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturntoUkraineoffullcontroloveritsinternational
border.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
USMissiontotheOSCE
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
May26,2016
DespiteeffortstobuildontheEasterceasefirerecommitmentandcreateabettersecurityenvironment,thisweekbeganwiththehighestcasualtiesincurredsinceAugustoflastyear.ThesecurityzoneineasternUkrainecontinuestobedefinedbytensionand
instability,asSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)DeputyChiefMonitorAlexanderHugsaidthisweek.
CombinedRussian-separatistforcesincreasedtheirattackswhilesimultaneouslyobstructingSMMmonitors,preventingthemfromaccountingforthoseceasefireviolations.CoordinatedattacksbycombinedRussian-separatistforcesonMay24resultedinthe
heaviestlossessufferedbyUkrainianforcesinasingledaythisyear:sevenkilledandninewounded.
Russiacontinuestoarm,train,andfightalongsideseparatistforces,andthesecurityzoneremainsawashinheavyweapons,tanks,armoredpersonnelcarriers,andanti-aircraftguns.Theseweaponsappearinpartoftheconflictzoneoneday,vanishthenext,andthen
reappearsomewhereelse,underminingconfidencebetweenthesidesandeffortstowardasustainableceasefireandMinskimplementation.OnMay15alone,theSMMcounted81tanksonseparatist-heldterritory.Regrettably,combinedRussian-separatistforces
havenothesitatedtoputtheseweaponstouse,poundingresidentialareasofAvdiivkawithmortarsandartilleryfireonMay21and22,killingtwoUkrainiansoldiers,woundingeightothers,anddamagingordestroyingsixhomes.Theseattackswerepremeditated
andcameshortlyaftercombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisconnectedtheSMMsstaticobservationcamerasinDonetsk,camerastheyhadpromisedtheSMMcouldoperatewithoutinterference.
Colleagues,thePermanentCouncilhasoftenheardtheRussianFederationcallforintensivemonitoringofhotspots.WecallonRussiatodirecttheseparatistsitbackstoimmediatelyallowtheSMMfullaccesstotheareasundertheircontrolandtorestoreits
cameras,whichareessentialtomonitoringhotspotsthataretoodangerousformonitorstopatrol.
ItisessentialthatRussiaandtheseparatistsagreetoadisengagementplan,whichcanthenbeendorsedbytheTrilateralContactGroupasquicklyaspossible.Manyoftheproposedlocationsfordisengagementareatcrossingpointsonthelineofcontact.Inthis
regard,wenotethattheGovernmentofUkrainehasalreadytakenstepsthatwillsupportdisengagementefforts.Inkeepingwithitsagreementtoopenupmorecrossingpoints,Ukrainehasclearedminesandconstructedpropercrossingfacilitiesatitscheckpointin
Zolote.Theseparatistshavenotupheldtheircommitmentsneithertoallowcivilianstocrossnortopullbacktheheavyweaponsthatputlivesatrisk.Civiliansaresubjectedtokilometers-longlines,andareexposedtotheever-presentriskofgettingcaughtin
crossfire.We,therefore,underscoretheneedforanagreementondisengagementnotonlytostabilizetheceasefire,buttoimprovethelivesofpeoplelivingonbothsidesofthecontactline.
Colleagues,overthelastfewmonthsfreshevidencehascometolightofRussiascontinuedsupplyofsophisticatedmilitaryequipmenttotheseparatistsinclearcontraventionofmeasure10oftheMinskPackageofMeasures.ASMMUAVrecentlytookaphoto
ofaRussianOrlan-10UAVflyingfromthedirectionofseparatist-heldpartsofDonetsk.TheOrlan-10isaRussiansystemitisnotcommerciallyavailableandcanonlybeflownbytrainedoperators.TheUkrainianmilitaryreportedthatanarmedUAVdropped
munitionsonUkrainiansoldiersonMay18.TheSMMonceagainfoundevidenceofRussianjammingequipment,anIVOMineralnyantenna,onseparatist-heldterritoryonApril12.Thepresenceofsophisticatedmilitarytechnologyonthebattlefieldexposesthe
fallacyofRussiascontentionthatthisisaninternalconflictitisRussiawhichinstigatedthisconflict,Russiawhichhasfueledit,andRussiawhichmustnowacttoendit.
Resolvingthisconflictrequiresthereturnofseparatist-controlledareasofDonetskandLuhansktoUkrainiancontrol.OnthistheMinskagreementsarecrystalclear.WethereforecondemnthedecisionbytheRussianFederationtoacceptphonyseparatist
passportsasvalidforcrossingbetweenUkraineandtheRussianFederation.
InRussia-occupiedCrimea,Russiacontinuestoviolatetherightsofthosewhoopposetheoccupation,includingmembersofreligiousandethnicminoritiesindefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitments.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatarmedia.
Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTataractivists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.HavingbannedtheMejlisthelegal,legitimaterepresentativebodyoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleRussian
authoritieshaveacceleratedacrackdownonitsleadership.OnMay12,theDeputyChairmanoftheCrimeanTatarMejlis,IlmiUmerov,wasarrested,alongwiththreeothers.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatsanctionsrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationends.AndwejointheEUinmanytimesreaffirmingthatsanctionsimposedupontheRussianFederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
Note:VariationsofWPandNYTarticlesIsentoutyesterdayonthereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkoappearinprinteditionsofthosepaperstoday.
TheNewYorkTimes
GermanForeignMinisterSteinmeierSaysExtendingRussiaSanctionsMoreDifficult
ByREUTERSMAY26,2016,6:30A.M.E.D.T.
VILNIUSAnagreementonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyrunoutonJuly31hasbecomemoredifficultwithgrowingoppositionfromsomeEUcountries,Germany'sforeignministersaidonThursday.
EuropeanUnioneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiawereintroducedforoneyearinJuly2014inresponsetoitsactionsinUkraineandtwiceextendedin2015.
"WeareawarethatresistanceintheEUtoextendingthesanctionstowardsRussiahasincreased,"Frank-WalterSteinmeierwasquotedbyLithuania'sBNSnewsagencysayinginaninterview.
"Itwillbemoredifficultthanitwaslastyeartofindacommonpositiononthisissue."
GermanywantstokeepthesanctionsuntiltheMinskpeaceaccordsbetweenRussiaandUkraineareimplemented,Steinmeiersaid.
"Onethingisforsure.WecannotignoreRussia'sannexationofCrimeainviolationofinternationallawandthedestabilisationofEasternUkraine,"hesaid.
The28-strongEUneedsunanimitytokeepthesanctionsinplaceandthebloc'sunityhasbeenincreasinglytestedonthat.
LastweekdiplomatsandofficialstoldReuterstheEUwasstillontracktorenewthem,thoughanextensioncouldbecontestedandonlyshort-term.
Italy,Greece,Cyprus,HungaryandBulgariaareamongEUstatesscepticalthatsanctionsshouldbeextended,diplomatssaid,facingoffagainstBritain,Sweden,PolandandtheBalticstates.
(ReportingByAndriusSytasEditingbyMarkJohn)
TheWashingtonPost/AP
GorbachevbarredfromvisitingUkraineforCrimearemarks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/gorbachev-barred-from-visiting-ukraine-for-crimea-remarks/2016/05/26/c3aede60-2348-11e6-b944-52f7b1793dae_story.html
May26at9:50AM
MOSCOWTheUkrainianintelligenceagencySBUsaysithasbarredthelastleaderoftheSovietUnion,MikhailGorbachev,fromvisitingUkraineforthenextfiveyears.
TheSBUsaidinastatementThursdaythatthiswasareactiontoGorbachevspubliccondoningofthe2014RussianannexationofCrimea.
TheSundayTimesquoted85-yearoldGorbachevassayingthathewouldhaveactedthesamewayasRussianPresidentVladimirPutinifhehadfoundhimselfinasimilarsituation.
GorbachevoversawthecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991andhasbeenlaudedworldwideforencouragingthereunificationofGermanyandlargelyallowingformerSovietsatellitesineasternEuropetobreakawayfromMoscowsorbit.
Andforallofyoucheese-eatersoutthere.And,yes,thisisUkrainerelated:
TheWashingtonPost
Americacanteatitswayoutofthismassivecheeseproblem
ByCharlesLaneOpinionwriter
May25at7:21PM
Asifwedidnthaveenoughtoworryaboutalready,herecomesanewissue:TheGreatCheeseGlutof2016.TheWallStreetJournalreportsthatasofMarch31,1.19billionpoundshadaccumulatedincommercialcold-storagefreezersacrosstheUnitedStates,
thelargeststockpileever.
Thisaffectsanentireglobalindustry,fromWisconsinDellstoWholeFoodsshelves.YeteachAmericanwouldhavetoeatanextra3poundsofcheesethisyear,ontopofthe36poundswealreadyconsumepercapita,toeliminatethebigyellowmountain.Evenfora
societythatpilesthestuffonsandwichesandrollsitintopizzacrusts,thatsatallorder.
Thanks,Obama!
Justkidding.ItsmorelikeThanks,Putin.InAugust2014,hebannedEuropeanUnionagriculturalimportsaspaybackforE.U.sanctionspunishingRussiasinvasionofUkraine.PutinstruckjustastheEuropeanUnionwasendingdairyproductionlimits,sotheloss
oftheRussianmarketwasdoublypainfultoE.U.producersandrenderedthemdesperateformarketselsewhere.ThrowinastrongerdollarduetoFederalReservepolicy(thanks,JanetYellen)etvoila!U.S.cheeseimportsarerising.
Readmore:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-cant-eat-its-way-out-of-this-massive-cheese-problem/2016/05/25/976e96c4-228a-11e6-9e7f-57890b612299_story.html
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
TimothySnyder
Read:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/06/09/the-wars-of-vladimir-putin/?pagination=false&printpage=true
From:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>
Subject:Fw:VladdyPutlerbySnyder
To:StephanieKarpishka<stefakarpishka@gmail.com>
Cc:MyronSwidersky<sverlyk@aol.com>,AndrijBARAN<litzars@msn.com>,22MORE
Pryvit May 26th, 2016.
Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.
OnThursday,May26,20169:48AM,GeorgeMakohin<gmmok@att.net>wrote:
Excellent,excellent,excellentarticlebyProf.Snyder.
HeactuallyhasgonetothetroubleoflearningUkrainian,andwhenheappearedonAndrewKulikov'sshow,FreedomofSpeech,onICTV,heactuallyspokeUkrainian.
Hereisaquotefromthearticleabouttheschizoid"non-soldiersfromRussia"whohave"notinvaded"Ukraine:
HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasionwhileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.
Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

image TheWarsofVladimirPutin
ThenewRussianwarsarea
BonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,

temporarilyresolvingdomestictensions
indoomedforeignadventures,but
lackingavision...
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TimothySnyder
The Wars of Vladimir Putin JUNE9,2016ISSUE
byPawePieniek
EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:UkrainianLessons]
byKarlSchlgel
NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNewRussia
byPeterPomerantsev
1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,wasunderstoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.AfterthepeacefulrevolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?The
ruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweakerstatesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonofSovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussianmigrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.
ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,aquarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherentalternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthenameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,andRussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.
WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizetheideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledto
expectthattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasaninstrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,was
demandingthatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofitsnewEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.
Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainianpresident,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.TheRussianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,theMaidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrivedafewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,
theyoungmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,peoplewhowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.
TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturalandanti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardtounderstandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhiscollectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrinkofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.ThegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionoftherightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthe
massshootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoarevolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,hispoliticalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremotecontrol,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswhohadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregion
ofsoutheasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizeaseparatistmovement.1
InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfiedwithcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolutioninKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsome
oligarchstoothers.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiationsorelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchanged
everyonespoliticalcalculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpointforseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplacecrawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,and
understoodthatlocaloppositiontotherevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgorGirkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatistforces,hadmadeSlovianskhis
headquarters.
UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthenewauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainiangovernmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrested
bytheseparatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthelocaldissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernowresidedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,
whichRussiansoldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.
ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurtherRussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.PutinspokethatmonthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveotherregions
ofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgelwasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasaprincipleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.
WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheendofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzigasapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropean
integrationinsistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolvedwithintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.PieniekwascontinuallystruckbythefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderas
fascist,evenastheyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.Whattheymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussiaisafascist.
Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.BecausealmostallUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutincallstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.AshemovedthroughtheUkrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,hefoundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussian
border,isgovernedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejectedseparatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethegatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofought
againstseparatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2
ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,itslocaloligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscowagainsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatimewhenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreaching
othereastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveintoDonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.SomeoftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyofthe
irregularswereChechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodidinordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasneverthreatened.4Schlgelwrites:
ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russianhightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.
DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthecityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussiancontrolwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupport
fromlocalRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.WithoutsuchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knowninUkrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussiahadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskandLuhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.
TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmedforcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpowertodeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseized
fromUkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014KievwasabuzzwithrumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,MoscowhadtobringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedthe
borderwithtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwerequicklyshotdown.5
TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.OneofthenumerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbaseinKurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthemarking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfromDonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhavesimplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamto
KualaLumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckbyhundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314MwarheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.The
projectilesrippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebodypartssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesatitscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheir
baggagescatteredoveraradiusofthirtymiles.6
SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.TheyoungjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesofwreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirstreporteron
thescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldonRussiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthadshotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainianauthorities
hadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmadeamistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,thevictimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.
Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthedisaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscallthezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasiertomockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percentin2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamed
theirowncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7
HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactofRussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussianinvasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheideathatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemygovernedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.
BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeterPomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywastheconsequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-calledUkrainiancrisis,
maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.
AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,RussiansandUkrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,anda
propagandaapparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.SchlgelobservesthattheRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversifytheeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-
firstcenturywhenpriceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussianchoicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatother
observershavefoundtheRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthanthebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussianstodefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermit
outsiders,asSchlgelnotes,todiscussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.
PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhebecamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfasthememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.It
wouldbeaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemedtodosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrombuildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeled
girlsseekingsecurity,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedanddeniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicide
modelswerecirculatedinMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.
Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,MaidanSquare,Kiev,February2014
PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunderstatecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostagesduringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscow
theater.Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,andthestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreorlesstimeondifferentchannels.TheirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmtheinevitabilityofPutin.
AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespittingnationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.
Pomerantsevconsidersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimatechemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscaland
legalreviewsatthewhimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteisblack,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthe
businesswoman.Thereisnoreality.Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.
AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodernworld,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailedinthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsifiedparliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,andRussianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussianeliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheir
convictionthatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)
ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactoftheprotestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeignleadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.InthiswayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignored
evenasRussiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.
Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembracednationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationoftheEurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstoodthiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.RatherthandwellingonthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmediadefinedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.
TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwascalledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendingsgavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomic
declinecontinued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.ThroughSeptember2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedtoSyria.
ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarilyresolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavisionfortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainsttheWestwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideitslanguagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despiteappearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectlyjustified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.
Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovementarousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopularmovementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,sincenothingis
moredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraineunderRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesandthousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeenmurdered.9
Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,andsqualidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?ThisistheessenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethetermmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdownthePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththe
connectionsbetweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceoftherevolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpoliticalthought.
WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwithahumanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficerwhohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Untilthenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervenedtostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewas
hearing,sheasked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBmangavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,andthatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuch
lies.
AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromisedfraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepartfromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwaspossible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instabilityandchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurablethoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.ItwouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofabarrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas
$34.WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoilwaspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.
EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferentlessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofalifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirected
toParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.WhydidsofewpeoplewhoidentifywiththeleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthecounterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweris
thatmanyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andsoforgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelisfundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiatoknowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineasanhourofverificationandself-verification.
TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgelandPieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsightofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdidother
braveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,hebenefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatistsbelievedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfounditeasiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhad
bothbeenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergettingbeaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationshipgoing.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestly
exemplifiestheolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworldofbiglies.
Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohisWesternfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethepublicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeislittleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,saysPomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthe
twentiethcenturywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyallpossibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonmentofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthe
bottomlessskepticismthatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgelconcludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,andsomethingsarepossible.
ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,AggressionAgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternationalLaw(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).
AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:UkrainianvolunteersandconscriptsaremoreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyarefightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedstoKnow(OxfordUniversity
Press,2015),p.18.
Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,March6,2014.
InFebruary2014UkrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthatallowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfactrepealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnotaffectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizingtheneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryroleinbothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,pressconferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewhocarried
outcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussianmilitaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutionsasinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.
BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossesstherelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforwardreconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedonOctober13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedoutby
theinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwodescribethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiersbelievedtohave
personalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshootingdownofMH17.
Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressureofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percentthresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentandSvoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).
SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,OpenDemocracy,January14,2016.
10.10
SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePragueSpring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).
11
Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasiertropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:StoriesfromUkraine(London:AllenLane,2015).

From:VRT
Subject:HOPEYOUCAUGHTTHIS:TakingWarSeriously
TakingWarSeriously:Russia-NATOShowdownNoLongerJustFiction
ByJamesSherr
May.25201619:24
Lastedited19:24
YvesHerman/ReutersANATOflagfliesattheAllianceheadquartersinBrussels.
NATOsformerDeputySupremeAlliedCommander,GeneralSirRichardShirreffsnewbook,2017:WarWithRussia,isaworkoffiction.ButitssubjectaclashbetweenNATOandRussiaasearlyasnext
yearisnotcompletelyfanciful.
WhenRussiaattackedUkrainein2014,italsoattackedtheHelsinki-basedsecurityorderofEurope.Inplaceofthissystem,PresidentVladimirPutiniscallingforarevivedYaltasystem,basedonspheresof
influenceandrespect.HealsohasinvokedthebordersofhistoricRussiaandproclaimedarighttodefendRussiancompatriotsabroad.
AndiftreatiesandagreementsarenotsacrosancttotheKremlin,whyshouldNATObordersbesacrosanct?ItisonlyreasonablethatNATOsBalticalliesaskthisquestionandthatothers,beginningwithTurkey,
dosoaswell.
SofiaMiroyedova
Theirconcernsareheightenedbymilitarydevelopmentsassignificantastodayspoliticalones.SincethewarwithGeorgiain2008,Russiahasmadeasteady,cumulativeinvestmentinthecapacitytowagelocal JamesSherr
andregionalwarthroughouttheinteriorandontheperipheryoftheformerU.S.S.R.Thismeansfull-spectrum,non-linearwar,fromnon-attributableattacksbypolitelittlementofirstuseofnuclearweapons.Italso
meansinformationwar,fromdisinformationtocyberattacks,andacoordinatedefforttomobilizethestate.
Whatisthepurposeoftheinvestment?TheshortansweristowageproactivedefenseagainstgeopoliticalandcivilizationalencirclementbytheWest.ThatstatesonRussiasperipherymightwelcomeWesternencroachmentisgrist
tothemillofthoseinRussiawhoassessthreatsandrespondtothem.InsidetheKremlinsfebrileworld,anunbrokenchainofmalignintentconnectsNATOandEUenlargement,humanitarianinterventions,coloredrevolutionsand
regimechanges,culminatingwithRussiaitself.ToaskinthesecircumstanceswhetherRussiaspolicyisoffensiveordefensiveistoplaywithwords.
TodaytheBalticstatesarethreatenedpolitically.TheaimofRussianpolicyistopersuadethemthat,insideoroutsidetheEUandNATO,theylieinagreyzoneandshouldbehaveaccordingly.Tothisend,military-forcegroupswitha
capacitytoseizeRigaandTallinnin60hoursareanasset,evenifitwouldbefollytoemploytheminpractice.UntilNATOtakesstepstorectifythemilitarybalance,Russiawillusefearasaweapontounderminethepoliticalbalance.
ButwhatistheriskthattheBalticswillbeattackedmilitarily?SinceNATOcannotknow,itmustnotallowadangerousimbalanceofforcestoarise.Unfortunately,italreadyhasarisen.From1991to2008,theWestbelievedthere
wouldbenomilitarythreatsinEurope,andnationalarmedforceswererestructuredaccordingly.TheimpactoftheGeorgianwarontheseorthodoxieswasminimal.ButCrimeasannexationhaslaunchedanintellectualrevolution.
Thoseatitscuttingedgearerealistswhoknowthatvulnerabilitiescannotberepairedbysummitdeclarationsandband-aids.
TheyalsoknowthatRussiasweaknessesareastellingasitsstrengths.Today,RussiahasanenhancedversionofthearmythatDefenseMinisterSergeiShoiguspredecessor,AnatolySerdyukov,aspiredtobuild.Theironyisthat
hewasthefirstRussiandefenseministertoremoveNATOasthebaselineofRussiandefensesufficiency.
Thecoreoftodaysmilitarycapabilityliesin30-40maneuverunits,nuclearanddual-usestrikesystemsandmulti-layeredairdefense.Thatisaformidablecapabilityforlimitedconflict,butitisnotthecapabilityRussiasGeneralStaff
woulddesignforfull-scalewaragainstNATO.Russiasambitiouslonger-termplansconfirmasmuch.ButtheseplansarerunningintotheusualRussianbuffershuman,industrialandinstitutionalandnotallofthemcanbe
plannedoutofexistence,leastofallinadamagedanddeterioratingeconomy.
Therefore,thechallengeforNATOisnodifferentthanitusedtobeinWestBerlin:topersuadeRussiathatanywarmeansfull-scalewar.Tothisend,itisnotnecessarytodenyRussiaavictoryintheBalticstates.Itisnecessaryto
denyitaquickvictory.Thisisadoabletask,butthatdoesnotmeanitwillbedone.TherealsoisnocertaintythatPutinsChekisttestingandprobingofweaknesswillnotprovokeatougherresponsethanhecansafelymanage.

JamesSherrisAssociateFellow,ChathamHouse
Senttime: 05/23/201602:41:41PM
May23,2016--Volume13,Issue100
INTHISISSUE
*MoscowrefusestotalkingoodfaithwithWest
*Circassiansmarkthe152ndanniversaryoftheendoftheRussian-Circassianwar
*UnresolvedKarabakhconflictthreatensEuropeanenergysecurity

TheFutilityofDialogueWithPutin

TheneedtokeepthechannelsofdialogueopenwithanunpredictableRussiaistakenasan
absoluteimperativebymanyWesternpoliticians.Buttheyareoftensurprisedwhenthistactic
backfires.TheforeignministersofthememberstatesoftheNorthAtlanticTreaty
Organization(NATO)heldtalks,onMay1920,inpreparationfortheJulysummitin
Warsaw.TheyagreedtoconveneameetingoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilinordertoclear
anypossiblemisunderstandingswithMoscowonthedecisionstobetaken(Kommersant,
May21).However,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergwasquiteupsetbyRussian
ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsundiplomaticallyrude,negativeresponse(RIANovosti,
May20).StoltenbergcertainlyunderstandsMoscowsneedtoexpressitsdispleasureover
MontenegrosaccessiontotheAlliance,whichconfirmsthatNATOenlargementcontinues
(Gazeta.ru,May19).Yet,itisapparentlyasurprisethattheRussiangovernmentseesnopoint
intalkingifthereisnoopportunitytoexploitsplitsintheWestsunityortoscorepointsfor
PresidentVladimirPutin.

Moscowslackofinterestindiscussingissuesofcrucialimportanceinitscurrentconfrontation
withtheWestisparticularlystrikingintheareaofstrategicarmscontrol(RBC,May22).
RussiahasnotwithdrawnyetfromsuchkeyframeworksasSTARTIII(NewSTART
2011)ortheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForces(INF)Treaty(1988),butitrefusesto
engageinanydialoguethatcouldbridgetheobviousgapintheunderstandingofstrategic
stability.PutindescribestheUnitedStatesnewlyopenedmissiledefensebaseinRomaniaas
adirectthreattoRussia(seeEDM,May12),althoughfactsonthegroundfailtojustifysuch
claims(NovayaGazeta,May19).Russiaiscommittedtoboostingspendingonmodernizing
itsstrategicforcesinthenextsixyears,whilethesevereeconomicrecessionseriously
underminessuchplans(NezavisimayaGazeta,May18).
TheKremlinpointedlyrefusestodiscussthede-escalationoftensionsintheBalticarea,
wheredangerousaerialincidentsoccureveryweek(Politcom.ru,May19).Incontrast,Putin
showsgreatenthusiasmintalkingtoAsianleaders,andlastweeksSochisummitbetween
RussiaandthecountriesoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)was
trumpetedasagreatsuccessofRussianforeignpolicy(Kommersant,May19).Infact,the
substanceoftheseconversationswasquitethin,andRussiasvauntedAsianpivotis
increasinglyreducedtosupplyingmorearmsandgrantingmoreeconomicconcessionsto
China.Buteventhisextra-strategicpartnershipisnotprogressingaspromised(Carnegie.ru,
May19).ForAsianleaders,Russiasreadinesstosacrificeeconomicmodernizationforthe
sakeofgeopoliticalambitionsisquiteastounding.Thus,Moscowshopestoregainaccessto
theVietnamesenavalbaseinCamRanhBayhaveaslimchanceofcomingtrue
(NezavisimayaGazeta,May20).JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzAbethoughtthatthegrim
economicrealitywouldcompelMoscowtoaccepthisofferofanewapproachtothe
problemofthedisputedKurileIslandsinordertorevivethefalteringpivot(seeEDM,May
9),butPutinfounditopportunetousethemeetingwithASEANtoassertthatnochangesin
hisinflexiblestanceareinthecards(Lenta.ru,May20).
OnethemeMoscowiskeentodiscusswiththeWestisthemanagementofthewarinSyria,
andthepreferredformatisbilateraltalksbetweenLavrovandUSSecretaryofStateJohn
Kerry(NezavisimayaGazeta,May18).Russiaislookingforopportunitiestotakeadvantage
oftheUSscommitmenttopreservingtheceasefire,soDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu
offeredanideatoexecutejointairstrikes,addingaveiledthreatthatRussianbomberswould
betargetingalloppositiongroupsnotpartakingintheGenevatalks(Kommersant,May20).
Theideawasdulyrejected.ButWashingtonishardpressedtofindastrategythatwould
ensureadefeatoftheIslamicStatewithoutgrantingmorecontroltothebrutalregimeof
PresidentBasharal-Assad,heavilybackedbyMoscow(RBC,May20).Oneturnofevents
thatcouldchangethecourseofRussiasinterventionwouldbeacrashofaRussianmilitary
aircraftduetoover-stretchedlogisticsparticularlyasthetrackrecordoftechnicalfailuresin
theRussianAirForcekeepsgainingnewentrieseverymonth(Newsru.com,May21).
AmassiveproblemthatoverwhelminglyshapestheconfrontationwiththeWestisRussias
hybridwaragainstUkraine.Moreandmore,Moscowappearstiredoftalkingaboutit,
eventhoughtheMinskpeaceprocessisclearlygoingnowhere(Kommersant,May12).
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoarguesthatbyfightingagainstRussianaggression,his
countryis,infact,shieldingEuropefrombarbarismandtyranny(RBC,May21).This
discourseringstrueinmanyWesterncapitals.AnddespiteapronouncedUkrainefatigue
andadesiretomitigatetheconfrontationwithRussiainmanyEuropeanpoliticalcircles,
sanctionswillalmostcertainlybeprolongedandfine-tunedduringtheupcomingEuropean
CouncilmeetingattheendofJune(RossiiskayaGazeta,May19).Meanwhile,theG7summit
inJapanthisweekissettoreconfirmthepositiononsanctions,andMoscowisstillbitter
aboutitsexpulsionfromthisclubtwoyearsagoduetoRussiasillegalannexationofCrimea
(MoscowEcho,May20).
ThelistoftopicsformeaningfulconversationsbetweentheWestandRussiaisthusbecoming
quiteshortindeedparticularlyasthereislittlevalueaddedfromMoscowsdisapprovalof
NorthKoreaserraticbehavior,whilediscussionsovertheIraniannuclearprogramare
essentiallyover.RussiasintentiontoexacerbateeverypossibleprobleminsidetheEuropean
Unionisoverlytransparent,anditseageranticipationoftheUnitedKingdomschoicetoleave
theEUistypicalinthisregard(EzhednevnyZhurnal,May19).EvenRussiasclosestallies,
suchasBelarus,findtheexchangesincreasinglydisagreeableasMoscowresortsyetagainto
energyblackmailinordertosecuretheconsentforbuildingairbasesanddeployingIskander
missiles(Gazeta.ru,May16).
Thefundamentalpoliticalbeliefintheinherentbenefitofmaintainingopendialoguewithan
opponentmaybeseriouslymisplacedinPutinscase.Hecannotbedissuadedfromusingwar
asaninstrumentofpolicy,becauseonlywarprovidesjustificationforhisregime.Norcanhe
bepersuadedtochoosewhatisbestforRussia,becausehisregimeiscorruptandtheloyal
securityservices(siloviki)arewranglingovertheshrinkingloot.Eventhemostno-nonsense
talkscannotreducetheunpredictabilityofRussiasbehavior,becausethecountryisgoing
throughspasmsofangstandanger.AsincereWesterncommitmenttodialoguecouldbecome
ameansoffoolingitselfandPutiniscertainlyagreathelpinthat.
--PavelK.Baev
MoscowHeightensPressureonCircassianActivistsonTheirRemembranceDay
In1990,CircassianactivistsdesignatedMay21astheDayofMourningandRemembrance
tocommemoratethefinaldestructionoftheirnationin1864bytheRussianEmpire.Since
then,CircassiansintheNorthCaucasusandoutsideRussiahavemarkedtheDayof
MourningwithprocessionsandculturaleventstheRussianFederationsauthoritieshave
largelyignoredthesecommemorations.Thisyear,however,theRussiansstartedpressuring
CircassiansinregardtotheMay21anniversary,withalevelofintensityandeffortunlike
previousyears.
OnMay21,policeinMoscowdetainedtheCircassianactivistBeslanTeuvazhevandeightof
hisassociates.Accordingtotheactivists,theywerenearametrostationinMoscowwhen
policearrivedandtookthemtothepolicestation.TeuvazhevandagroupofCircassian
activistshadearlieraskedthecityauthoritiesforpermissiontoholdapubliceventatSokolniki
Park,inMoscow,onMay21,tomarktheDayofMourning.Thecityadministrationdenied
therequest,sayingthatanotherorganizationhadbeengivenpermissiontoholdaneventin
SokolnikiParkthatday.WhenTeuvazhevaskedthecitytoallowCircassianstoholdthe
eventonMay22,authoritiesagainrefusedtograntthempermission(KavkazskyUzel,May
21).
OnMay20,Russianauthoritiesdeniedentrytoagroupof21CircassiansfromTurkeywho
attemptedtocrosstheGeorgian-Russianlandborder.Aftera20-hourdelay,theauthorities
turnedthembackattheborder.ThegrouphadtraveledbybusfromAnkara,Turkey,crossed
theBlackSeabyferrytoBatumi,Georgia,andplannedtocontinueonthesamebusto
Nalchik,Kabardino-Balkaria.MembersofthegroupplannedtobeinNalchikonMay21for
CircassianMemorialDay,buttheRussianauthoritiesapparentlydidnotapproveoftheir
participationinthepubliceventsinKabardino-Balkaria(Justicefornorthcaucasus.info,May
20).
KhautiSokhrokov,awell-knownpro-MoscowCircassianwhoheadstheInternational
CircassianAssociation,approvedoftheactionsoftheRussianauthorities.Sokhrokovsaidhe
hadwarnedtheCircassianorganizationsintheNorthCaucasusthatduetothetensions
betweenRussiaandTurkey,theyshouldnotinviteanyforeignparticipants(Natpressru.info,
May20).TheCircassiandelegationfromTurkeyrepresentedtheKAFFEDassociation,
whichrepeatedlysentdelegationstotheNorthCaucasusinthepastwithoutmuchtrouble
(Natpressru.info,May22).
Evenmorenotablythisyear,theMinistryofInteriorofJordan,forthefirsttimeinyears,
bannedCircassianprotestsinfrontoftheRussianEmbassyinAmman.JordanianCircassians
everyyearreportedlyholdarelativelysmalleventinvolvingabout200300personsinthe
Jordaniancapital.LocalsareconvincedthattheJordaniangovernmentactedunderpressure
fromRussia.Still,Circassianactivistsreportedlymanagedtoholdademonstrationinfrontof
theRussianEmbassydespitetheban(Natpressru.info,May21).
TurkeyhastheworldslargestCircassianpopulation,andsizeablecommemorationsofthe
DayofMourningwereheldthereonMay21(KavkazskyUzel,May21).TurkishForeign
MinistryspokesmanTanjuBilgicstated,onMay20,thattheexileoftheCircassiansremainsa
deepheartwoundandacatastrophethatwillberememberedbyalltheCaucasian
people.TheTurkishofficialdescribedthemid-19thcenturydestructionoftheCircassiansby
Russiaasoneofthedeadliestmasskillingsinhistory,sayingthathundredsofthousandsof
CaucasianpeoplehadbeenpersecutedandfacedannihilationwhenRussiainvadedthe
Caucasus,forcingsurvivorstomigratetoAnatolia,intheOttomanEmpire(Aa.com.tr,May
20).
Anestimated90percentoftheCircassianpopulationintheNorthCaucasusandtheBlack
Searegionwaskilled,starvedtodeathorforcedtoleavetheirhomelandasaresultofthe
Russianconquestoftheareainthe19thcentury.TheRussianEmpiresoughtcontroloverthe
BlackSeacoastandstraits,whichwouldallowittoexpanditsinfluencefurthertothesouth
andtoEurope.
ThisMay21,processionsandothercommemorativeeventstookplaceinKabardino-
Balkaria,Karachaevo-Cherkessia,andAdygea,asusual.Thoseeventsweredominatedby
regionaladministrators,whoemphasizedtheunityofallpeoplesintheirrespectiverepublics.
Anestimated1,5002,000peopletookpartintheeventsinMaikop,Adygea.Afterthe
procession,theauthoritiesallowedthosemourningthedaytoenteraconcerthallinMaikop,
apparentlytoreducethenumberofparticipantsandtakepeopleoffthestreets
InKabardino-Balkaria,alargeprocessiontookplaceinNalchik,alongwitheventsona
smallerscaleinothertownsoftherepublic.Thisyear,thepubliceventswerereportedly
markedwithalargepresenceofpoliceinNalchik(KavkazskyUzel,May21).Ata
commemorativeeventinKarachaevo-Cherkessia,therepublicsgovernor,RashidTemrezov,
saidthatamemorialdedicatedtothevictimsoftheRussian-Caucasianwarwouldbeready
bythefallof2016(KavkazskyUzel,May21).
CommemorationsofthevictimsoftheRussian-CircassianwarintheNorthCaucasusarenot
athreattoMoscow.Sucheventsareusuallydominatedbytheregionalauthorities,whodo
notsayanythingcontroversialthatcouldupsetthefederalauthorities.Yet,despiteallthis,
authoritiesinMoscowareapparentlyincreasingpressureonCircassiansbothinsideand
outsideRussiainordertodiminishthescopeofCircassianMemorialDaycommemorations
andeventuallyhaltthemaltogether.Whilethecommemorationsarethemselvesnothreatto
Moscow,anypubliceventintheNorthCaucasusbringspeopletogetherandshowsthereisa
potentialforcollectiveaction.Actingpreventively,MoscowintendstodisrupttheCircassian
networksnowinordertoavoidanypoliticaldemandsfromtheminthefuture.
--ValeryDzutsati
Four-DayKarabakhWarHighlightsThreatstoEnergySecurityonNATOs
SoutheasternFlank
TheperiodicescalationofviolenceinandaroundtheseparatistAzerbaijaniterritoryof
Karabakhroutinelyraisesconcernsaboutthisconflictsthreattoregionalenergysecurityand
pipelineinfrastructure.However,fewcommentariesanalyzethisissuesbroadergeopolitical
implicationsinanydetail.TheintensefightingbetweenthearmedforcesofArmeniaand
AzerbaijanalongtheLineofContactlastmonthoftenreferredtoastheFourDaysWar
(April25)hadserioushumanitarianrepercussions.Buttheviolencealsonotably
underscoredthevulnerabilityofregionalenergyinfrastructurelocatedonEuropesandthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)strategicsoutheasternflanknamely,the
Baku-SupsaandBaku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan(BTC)oilpipelines,theSouthCaucasusNaturalGas
Pipeline,aswellasnearbyoilandgasterminals.
OnApril5,thedefenseministryoftheself-proclaimedNagorno-KarabakhRepublic
warnedthatitwaspreparedtocarryoutoffensivestrikesagainstAzerbaijansoilfacilities
usingIskander,Scud-BandTochka-Usystems(Newsarmenia.am,April5).Itisnosecret
thatArmeniahasalreadydeployedanti-aircraft,air-defenseandmissile-defensesystemsin
theoccupiedterritoriesofAzerbaijanandhasheldmilitaryexercisesinKarabakhtosimulate
possibleattacksandairstrikescenariosonAzerbaijansoilandgasinfrastructure
(Azatutyun.am,October15,2012).Moreover,formerprimeministerofArmeniaandcurrent
memberofparliamentHrantBagratyanalongwithretiredArmenianMajorGeneralArkady
Ter-TadevosyanthreatenedAzerbaijanwiththeuseofnuclearweaponsanddirtybombsby
theArmenianside(Armtoday.info,April29Rusarminfo.ru,May3).
ThephysicalsecurityoftheSouthCaucasusstrategicenergyinfrastructureaswellasthe
continuedsecuretransportofoilandgasfromAzerbaijantoEuropeareofgrowing
importancetotheenergysecurityofNATOsEuropeanallies.Moreover,anuninterrupted
energysupplyisalsoimperativetoensuretheAlliancesoperationalmobilityabroadandto
reduceitsmembersstrongdependenceonanysinglethird-partysupplier.Anyattackor
securitythreattoregionalenergyfields,terminals,pipelines,storagesitesandother
transportationfacilitieswouldunderminetheoilandgasflowfromAzerbaijanthroughGeorgia
andTurkeytoEuropeanandglobalmarkets.Asimilarcasealreadyoccurredduringthe
August2008Russia-Georgiawar,whenRussianmilitaryjetsdroppedbombsneartheBTC
andBaku-Supsaoilpipelines,resultinginthetemporarysuspensionofAzerbaijanioilexports
throughGeorgia(Stevelevine.info,August14,2008seeEDM,August13,2008).
Hence,theNorthAtlanticAlliancehasrepeatedlyemphasizedacollectiveapproachtoward
ensuringenergysecurity.This,alongwithpreservingastableenergysupply,maintainingthe
securityoftransportationfacilitiesandtransitroutes,aswellasdevelopingNATOs
competenceinprotectingenergyinfrastructurearehighlightedintheAlliancesRiga,Bucharest
andWalesSummitDeclarationsaswellasits2010StrategicConcept(Nato.int, November
29,2006April3,2008November1920,2010September5,2014).
Althoughtheprotectionofdomesticinfrastructureisgenerallyentrustedtothehostcountryor
owner,todayssecuritythreatsincreasinglycallforsharedresponsibility,collectiveendeavors
andmultilateralsecurityguaranteesfortheprotectionofcriticalenergytransitnetworksand
facilities.NATOssecurityguaranteeencompassesmemberstatesonly,notpartners.Thus,
BakhtiyarAslanbayli,avicepresidentwiththeinternationaloilfirmBP,hassuggested
formulatinganewconceptforNATOakindofArticle4.5thatcouldcontributetothe
protectionofcriticaltrans-borderandtrans-regionalenergyinfrastructure.Thisinnovation
wouldinvolveprovidingsecurityguaranteestoAzerbaijanandGeorgiaintheeventofsecurity
threatsagainstpipelinesorenergyfacilitiesthatdirectlyorindirectlyconcernNATOmember
states.Moreover,suchprotectionofcriticalenergyinfrastructurecouldbedonethrough
complementaryengagementandwithoutanover-militarizationofenergysecurity.Thenature
oftheNorthAtlanticAlliancespossibleengagementinhelpingprotectAzerbaijansenergy
infrastructurecanbearticulatedasfollows:providingdefensivedevicesforpipelinesoffering
assistancefordevelopinganair-defensesystemcooperatingoncybersecuritysharingof
intelligencetrainingthearmedforcesacceleratingconsultationswithNATOsrelevant
structuresfacilitatingthedefensivemilitaryassistanceforAzerbaijanengagingwithother
publicandprivatestakeholdersetc.(Cijournal.az,January18).
Infact,thetimingoflastAprilsfightinginKarabakhoccurringjustacouplemonthsbefore
NATOsJulyWarsawsummitdeservescloserattention.Conspicuously,armedclashes
brokeoutfollowingseveralmonthsofhigh-levelsupportiveWesternstatementsregardingthe
strategicSouthernGasCorridorcurrentlyunderconstruction,whichwilldeliverAzerbaijani
gasacrosstheSouthCaucasus,viaTurkey,toEurope.Inparticular,theEuropeanUnions
HighRepresentativeFedericaMogherinispokesupportivelyaboutthisprojectonFebruary
29,attheSouthernGasCorridorAdvisoryCouncilmeeting.USSecretaryofStateJohn
KerrymadesimilarlypositiveremarksonMarch30,duringhismeetingwithAzerbaijans
PresidentIlhamAliyev,attheNuclearSecuritySummit,inWashington.Andnotably,sincelate
lastyear,theconstructionoftwokeylegsoftheSouthernGasCorridortheTrans-Anatolia
NaturalGasPipeline(TANAP)andtheTrans-AdriaticPipeline(TAP)arebeing
accelerated,whiletheEuropeanCommissionhasapprovedtheagreementbetweenGreece
andTAP(Eeas.europa.eu,February29State.gov,March30 Apa.az,December7,2015
Trend.az,November27,2015Europa.eu,March3).
ThetimingoftheApril2016escalationinKarabakhontheeveoftheupcomingWarsaw
summitisevenmorenoteworthywhenlookedatinretrospect.Indeed,priortoNATOs
WalessummitinSeptember2014,asimilar(butsmallscale)escalationoccurredalongthe
LineofContactinAugust2014(RFE/RLAugust4,2014),andbothinstancesofviolent
escalationwereultimatelyextinguishedbyRussiasdirectintervention.Theapparentsignal
beingsenttotheAllianceviatheselatestclashescan,thus,beclearlydeduced.
Thepossibleeruptionoffull-scalewarbetweenAzerbaijanandArmeniawouldhavea
profoundlynegativeeffectontheenergyinfrastructureoftheentireregion,butespeciallyon
thatofAzerbaijan.Andsuchascenariowouldhavecatastrophiceffectsonforeign
investmentsintheenergysectorandforongoingtrans-regionalenergyprojects,suchasthe
SouthernGasCorridor.Assuch,theunresolvedKarabakhconflictisagreatconcernnotonly
tothepartiesimmediatelyinvolved,buttoNATOandthebroaderWestaswell.
--IlgarGurbanov
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
Senttime: 05/23/201602:41:41PM
May23,2016--Volume13,Issue100
INTHISISSUE
*MoscowrefusestotalkingoodfaithwithWest
*Circassiansmarkthe152ndanniversaryoftheendoftheRussian-Circassianwar
*UnresolvedKarabakhconflictthreatensEuropeanenergysecurity

TheFutilityofDialogueWithPutin

TheneedtokeepthechannelsofdialogueopenwithanunpredictableRussiaistakenasan
absoluteimperativebymanyWesternpoliticians.Buttheyareoftensurprisedwhenthistactic
backfires.TheforeignministersofthememberstatesoftheNorthAtlanticTreaty
Organization(NATO)heldtalks,onMay1920,inpreparationfortheJulysummitin
Warsaw.TheyagreedtoconveneameetingoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilinordertoclear
anypossiblemisunderstandingswithMoscowonthedecisionstobetaken(Kommersant,
May21).However,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergwasquiteupsetbyRussian
ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsundiplomaticallyrude,negativeresponse(RIANovosti,
May20).StoltenbergcertainlyunderstandsMoscowsneedtoexpressitsdispleasureover
MontenegrosaccessiontotheAlliance,whichconfirmsthatNATOenlargementcontinues
(Gazeta.ru,May19).Yet,itisapparentlyasurprisethattheRussiangovernmentseesnopoint
intalkingifthereisnoopportunitytoexploitsplitsintheWestsunityortoscorepointsfor
PresidentVladimirPutin.

Moscowslackofinterestindiscussingissuesofcrucialimportanceinitscurrentconfrontation
withtheWestisparticularlystrikingintheareaofstrategicarmscontrol(RBC,May22).
RussiahasnotwithdrawnyetfromsuchkeyframeworksasSTARTIII(NewSTART
2011)ortheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForces(INF)Treaty(1988),butitrefusesto
engageinanydialoguethatcouldbridgetheobviousgapintheunderstandingofstrategic
stability.PutindescribestheUnitedStatesnewlyopenedmissiledefensebaseinRomaniaas
adirectthreattoRussia(seeEDM,May12),althoughfactsonthegroundfailtojustifysuch
claims(NovayaGazeta,May19).Russiaiscommittedtoboostingspendingonmodernizing
itsstrategicforcesinthenextsixyears,whilethesevereeconomicrecessionseriously
underminessuchplans(NezavisimayaGazeta,May18).
TheKremlinpointedlyrefusestodiscussthede-escalationoftensionsintheBalticarea,
wheredangerousaerialincidentsoccureveryweek(Politcom.ru,May19).Incontrast,Putin
showsgreatenthusiasmintalkingtoAsianleaders,andlastweeksSochisummitbetween
RussiaandthecountriesoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)was
trumpetedasagreatsuccessofRussianforeignpolicy(Kommersant,May19).Infact,the
substanceoftheseconversationswasquitethin,andRussiasvauntedAsianpivotis
increasinglyreducedtosupplyingmorearmsandgrantingmoreeconomicconcessionsto
China.Buteventhisextra-strategicpartnershipisnotprogressingaspromised(Carnegie.ru,
May19).ForAsianleaders,Russiasreadinesstosacrificeeconomicmodernizationforthe
sakeofgeopoliticalambitionsisquiteastounding.Thus,Moscowshopestoregainaccessto
theVietnamesenavalbaseinCamRanhBayhaveaslimchanceofcomingtrue
(NezavisimayaGazeta,May20).JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzAbethoughtthatthegrim
economicrealitywouldcompelMoscowtoaccepthisofferofanewapproachtothe
problemofthedisputedKurileIslandsinordertorevivethefalteringpivot(seeEDM,May
9),butPutinfounditopportunetousethemeetingwithASEANtoassertthatnochangesin
hisinflexiblestanceareinthecards(Lenta.ru,May20).
OnethemeMoscowiskeentodiscusswiththeWestisthemanagementofthewarinSyria,
andthepreferredformatisbilateraltalksbetweenLavrovandUSSecretaryofStateJohn
Kerry(NezavisimayaGazeta,May18).Russiaislookingforopportunitiestotakeadvantage
oftheUSscommitmenttopreservingtheceasefire,soDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu
offeredanideatoexecutejointairstrikes,addingaveiledthreatthatRussianbomberswould
betargetingalloppositiongroupsnotpartakingintheGenevatalks(Kommersant,May20).
Theideawasdulyrejected.ButWashingtonishardpressedtofindastrategythatwould
ensureadefeatoftheIslamicStatewithoutgrantingmorecontroltothebrutalregimeof
PresidentBasharal-Assad,heavilybackedbyMoscow(RBC,May20).Oneturnofevents
thatcouldchangethecourseofRussiasinterventionwouldbeacrashofaRussianmilitary
aircraftduetoover-stretchedlogisticsparticularlyasthetrackrecordoftechnicalfailuresin
theRussianAirForcekeepsgainingnewentrieseverymonth(Newsru.com,May21).
AmassiveproblemthatoverwhelminglyshapestheconfrontationwiththeWestisRussias
hybridwaragainstUkraine.Moreandmore,Moscowappearstiredoftalkingaboutit,
eventhoughtheMinskpeaceprocessisclearlygoingnowhere(Kommersant,May12).
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoarguesthatbyfightingagainstRussianaggression,his
countryis,infact,shieldingEuropefrombarbarismandtyranny(RBC,May21).This
discourseringstrueinmanyWesterncapitals.AnddespiteapronouncedUkrainefatigue
andadesiretomitigatetheconfrontationwithRussiainmanyEuropeanpoliticalcircles,
sanctionswillalmostcertainlybeprolongedandfine-tunedduringtheupcomingEuropean
CouncilmeetingattheendofJune(RossiiskayaGazeta,May19).Meanwhile,theG7summit
inJapanthisweekissettoreconfirmthepositiononsanctions,andMoscowisstillbitter
aboutitsexpulsionfromthisclubtwoyearsagoduetoRussiasillegalannexationofCrimea
(MoscowEcho,May20).
ThelistoftopicsformeaningfulconversationsbetweentheWestandRussiaisthusbecoming
quiteshortindeedparticularlyasthereislittlevalueaddedfromMoscowsdisapprovalof
NorthKoreaserraticbehavior,whilediscussionsovertheIraniannuclearprogramare
essentiallyover.RussiasintentiontoexacerbateeverypossibleprobleminsidetheEuropean
Unionisoverlytransparent,anditseageranticipationoftheUnitedKingdomschoicetoleave
theEUistypicalinthisregard(EzhednevnyZhurnal,May19).EvenRussiasclosestallies,
suchasBelarus,findtheexchangesincreasinglydisagreeableasMoscowresortsyetagainto
energyblackmailinordertosecuretheconsentforbuildingairbasesanddeployingIskander
missiles(Gazeta.ru,May16).
Thefundamentalpoliticalbeliefintheinherentbenefitofmaintainingopendialoguewithan
opponentmaybeseriouslymisplacedinPutinscase.Hecannotbedissuadedfromusingwar
asaninstrumentofpolicy,becauseonlywarprovidesjustificationforhisregime.Norcanhe
bepersuadedtochoosewhatisbestforRussia,becausehisregimeiscorruptandtheloyal
securityservices(siloviki)arewranglingovertheshrinkingloot.Eventhemostno-nonsense
talkscannotreducetheunpredictabilityofRussiasbehavior,becausethecountryisgoing
throughspasmsofangstandanger.AsincereWesterncommitmenttodialoguecouldbecome
ameansoffoolingitselfandPutiniscertainlyagreathelpinthat.
--PavelK.Baev
MoscowHeightensPressureonCircassianActivistsonTheirRemembranceDay
In1990,CircassianactivistsdesignatedMay21astheDayofMourningandRemembrance
tocommemoratethefinaldestructionoftheirnationin1864bytheRussianEmpire.Since
then,CircassiansintheNorthCaucasusandoutsideRussiahavemarkedtheDayof
MourningwithprocessionsandculturaleventstheRussianFederationsauthoritieshave
largelyignoredthesecommemorations.Thisyear,however,theRussiansstartedpressuring
CircassiansinregardtotheMay21anniversary,withalevelofintensityandeffortunlike
previousyears.
OnMay21,policeinMoscowdetainedtheCircassianactivistBeslanTeuvazhevandeightof
hisassociates.Accordingtotheactivists,theywerenearametrostationinMoscowwhen
policearrivedandtookthemtothepolicestation.TeuvazhevandagroupofCircassian
activistshadearlieraskedthecityauthoritiesforpermissiontoholdapubliceventatSokolniki
Park,inMoscow,onMay21,tomarktheDayofMourning.Thecityadministrationdenied
therequest,sayingthatanotherorganizationhadbeengivenpermissiontoholdaneventin
SokolnikiParkthatday.WhenTeuvazhevaskedthecitytoallowCircassianstoholdthe
eventonMay22,authoritiesagainrefusedtograntthempermission(KavkazskyUzel,May
21).
OnMay20,Russianauthoritiesdeniedentrytoagroupof21CircassiansfromTurkeywho
attemptedtocrosstheGeorgian-Russianlandborder.Aftera20-hourdelay,theauthorities
turnedthembackattheborder.ThegrouphadtraveledbybusfromAnkara,Turkey,crossed
theBlackSeabyferrytoBatumi,Georgia,andplannedtocontinueonthesamebusto
Nalchik,Kabardino-Balkaria.MembersofthegroupplannedtobeinNalchikonMay21for
CircassianMemorialDay,buttheRussianauthoritiesapparentlydidnotapproveoftheir
participationinthepubliceventsinKabardino-Balkaria(Justicefornorthcaucasus.info,May
20).
KhautiSokhrokov,awell-knownpro-MoscowCircassianwhoheadstheInternational
CircassianAssociation,approvedoftheactionsoftheRussianauthorities.Sokhrokovsaidhe
hadwarnedtheCircassianorganizationsintheNorthCaucasusthatduetothetensions
betweenRussiaandTurkey,theyshouldnotinviteanyforeignparticipants(Natpressru.info,
May20).TheCircassiandelegationfromTurkeyrepresentedtheKAFFEDassociation,
whichrepeatedlysentdelegationstotheNorthCaucasusinthepastwithoutmuchtrouble
Evenmorenotablythisyear,theMinistryofInteriorofJordan,forthefirsttimeinyears,
bannedCircassianprotestsinfrontoftheRussianEmbassyinAmman.JordanianCircassians
everyyearreportedlyholdarelativelysmalleventinvolvingabout200300personsinthe
Jordaniancapital.LocalsareconvincedthattheJordaniangovernmentactedunderpressure
fromRussia.Still,Circassianactivistsreportedlymanagedtoholdademonstrationinfrontof
theRussianEmbassydespitetheban(Natpressru.info,May21).
TurkeyhastheworldslargestCircassianpopulation,andsizeablecommemorationsofthe
DayofMourningwereheldthereonMay21(KavkazskyUzel,May21).TurkishForeign
MinistryspokesmanTanjuBilgicstated,onMay20,thattheexileoftheCircassiansremainsa
deepheartwoundandacatastrophethatwillberememberedbyalltheCaucasian
people.TheTurkishofficialdescribedthemid-19thcenturydestructionoftheCircassiansby
Russiaasoneofthedeadliestmasskillingsinhistory,sayingthathundredsofthousandsof
CaucasianpeoplehadbeenpersecutedandfacedannihilationwhenRussiainvadedthe
Caucasus,forcingsurvivorstomigratetoAnatolia,intheOttomanEmpire(Aa.com.tr,May
20).
Anestimated90percentoftheCircassianpopulationintheNorthCaucasusandtheBlack
Searegionwaskilled,starvedtodeathorforcedtoleavetheirhomelandasaresultofthe
Russianconquestoftheareainthe19thcentury.TheRussianEmpiresoughtcontroloverthe
BlackSeacoastandstraits,whichwouldallowittoexpanditsinfluencefurthertothesouth
andtoEurope.
ThisMay21,processionsandothercommemorativeeventstookplaceinKabardino-
Balkaria,Karachaevo-Cherkessia,andAdygea,asusual.Thoseeventsweredominatedby
regionaladministrators,whoemphasizedtheunityofallpeoplesintheirrespectiverepublics.
Anestimated1,5002,000peopletookpartintheeventsinMaikop,Adygea.Afterthe
procession,theauthoritiesallowedthosemourningthedaytoenteraconcerthallinMaikop,
apparentlytoreducethenumberofparticipantsandtakepeopleoffthestreets
InKabardino-Balkaria,alargeprocessiontookplaceinNalchik,alongwitheventsona
smallerscaleinothertownsoftherepublic.Thisyear,thepubliceventswerereportedly
markedwithalargepresenceofpoliceinNalchik(KavkazskyUzel,May21).Ata
commemorativeeventinKarachaevo-Cherkessia,therepublicsgovernor,RashidTemrezov,
saidthatamemorialdedicatedtothevictimsoftheRussian-Caucasianwarwouldbeready
bythefallof2016(KavkazskyUzel,May21).
CommemorationsofthevictimsoftheRussian-CircassianwarintheNorthCaucasusarenot
athreattoMoscow.Sucheventsareusuallydominatedbytheregionalauthorities,whodo
notsayanythingcontroversialthatcouldupsetthefederalauthorities.Yet,despiteallthis,
authoritiesinMoscowareapparentlyincreasingpressureonCircassiansbothinsideand
outsideRussiainordertodiminishthescopeofCircassianMemorialDaycommemorations
andeventuallyhaltthemaltogether.Whilethecommemorationsarethemselvesnothreatto
Moscow,anypubliceventintheNorthCaucasusbringspeopletogetherandshowsthereisa
potentialforcollectiveaction.Actingpreventively,MoscowintendstodisrupttheCircassian
networksnowinordertoavoidanypoliticaldemandsfromtheminthefuture.
--ValeryDzutsati
Four-DayKarabakhWarHighlightsThreatstoEnergySecurityonNATOs
SoutheasternFlank
TheperiodicescalationofviolenceinandaroundtheseparatistAzerbaijaniterritoryof
Karabakhroutinelyraisesconcernsaboutthisconflictsthreattoregionalenergysecurityand
pipelineinfrastructure.However,fewcommentariesanalyzethisissuesbroadergeopolitical
implicationsinanydetail.TheintensefightingbetweenthearmedforcesofArmeniaand
AzerbaijanalongtheLineofContactlastmonthoftenreferredtoastheFourDaysWar
(April25)hadserioushumanitarianrepercussions.Buttheviolencealsonotably
underscoredthevulnerabilityofregionalenergyinfrastructurelocatedonEuropesandthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)strategicsoutheasternflanknamely,the
Baku-SupsaandBaku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan(BTC)oilpipelines,theSouthCaucasusNaturalGas
Pipeline,aswellasnearbyoilandgasterminals.
OnApril5,thedefenseministryoftheself-proclaimedNagorno-KarabakhRepublic
warnedthatitwaspreparedtocarryoutoffensivestrikesagainstAzerbaijansoilfacilities
usingIskander,Scud-BandTochka-Usystems(Newsarmenia.am,April5).Itisnosecret
thatArmeniahasalreadydeployedanti-aircraft,air-defenseandmissile-defensesystemsin
theoccupiedterritoriesofAzerbaijanandhasheldmilitaryexercisesinKarabakhtosimulate
possibleattacksandairstrikescenariosonAzerbaijansoilandgasinfrastructure
(Azatutyun.am,October15,2012).Moreover,formerprimeministerofArmeniaandcurrent
memberofparliamentHrantBagratyanalongwithretiredArmenianMajorGeneralArkady
Ter-TadevosyanthreatenedAzerbaijanwiththeuseofnuclearweaponsanddirtybombsby
theArmenianside(Armtoday.info,April29Rusarminfo.ru,May3).
ThephysicalsecurityoftheSouthCaucasusstrategicenergyinfrastructureaswellasthe
continuedsecuretransportofoilandgasfromAzerbaijantoEuropeareofgrowing
importancetotheenergysecurityofNATOsEuropeanallies.Moreover,anuninterrupted
energysupplyisalsoimperativetoensuretheAlliancesoperationalmobilityabroadandto
reduceitsmembersstrongdependenceonanysinglethird-partysupplier.Anyattackor
securitythreattoregionalenergyfields,terminals,pipelines,storagesitesandother
transportationfacilitieswouldunderminetheoilandgasflowfromAzerbaijanthroughGeorgia
andTurkeytoEuropeanandglobalmarkets.Asimilarcasealreadyoccurredduringthe
August2008Russia-Georgiawar,whenRussianmilitaryjetsdroppedbombsneartheBTC
andBaku-Supsaoilpipelines,resultinginthetemporarysuspensionofAzerbaijanioilexports
throughGeorgia(Stevelevine.info,August14,2008seeEDM,August13,2008).
Hence,theNorthAtlanticAlliancehasrepeatedlyemphasizedacollectiveapproachtoward
ensuringenergysecurity.This,alongwithpreservingastableenergysupply,maintainingthe
securityoftransportationfacilitiesandtransitroutes,aswellasdevelopingNATOs
competenceinprotectingenergyinfrastructurearehighlightedintheAlliancesRiga,Bucharest
andWalesSummitDeclarationsaswellasits2010StrategicConcept(Nato.int, November
29,2006April3,2008November1920,2010September5,2014).
Althoughtheprotectionofdomesticinfrastructureisgenerallyentrustedtothehostcountryor
owner,todayssecuritythreatsincreasinglycallforsharedresponsibility,collectiveendeavors
andmultilateralsecurityguaranteesfortheprotectionofcriticalenergytransitnetworksand
facilities.NATOssecurityguaranteeencompassesmemberstatesonly,notpartners.Thus,
BakhtiyarAslanbayli,avicepresidentwiththeinternationaloilfirmBP,hassuggested
formulatinganewconceptforNATOakindofArticle4.5thatcouldcontributetothe
protectionofcriticaltrans-borderandtrans-regionalenergyinfrastructure.Thisinnovation
wouldinvolveprovidingsecurityguaranteestoAzerbaijanandGeorgiaintheeventofsecurity
threatsagainstpipelinesorenergyfacilitiesthatdirectlyorindirectlyconcernNATOmember
states.Moreover,suchprotectionofcriticalenergyinfrastructurecouldbedonethrough
complementaryengagementandwithoutanover-militarizationofenergysecurity.Thenature
oftheNorthAtlanticAlliancespossibleengagementinhelpingprotectAzerbaijansenergy
infrastructurecanbearticulatedasfollows:providingdefensivedevicesforpipelinesoffering
assistancefordevelopinganair-defensesystemcooperatingoncybersecuritysharingof
intelligencetrainingthearmedforcesacceleratingconsultationswithNATOsrelevant
structuresfacilitatingthedefensivemilitaryassistanceforAzerbaijanengagingwithother
publicandprivatestakeholdersetc.(Cijournal.az,January18).
Infact,thetimingoflastAprilsfightinginKarabakhoccurringjustacouplemonthsbefore
NATOsJulyWarsawsummitdeservescloserattention.Conspicuously,armedclashes
brokeoutfollowingseveralmonthsofhigh-levelsupportiveWesternstatementsregardingthe
strategicSouthernGasCorridorcurrentlyunderconstruction,whichwilldeliverAzerbaijani
gasacrosstheSouthCaucasus,viaTurkey,toEurope.Inparticular,theEuropeanUnions
HighRepresentativeFedericaMogherinispokesupportivelyaboutthisprojectonFebruary
29,attheSouthernGasCorridorAdvisoryCouncilmeeting.USSecretaryofStateJohn
KerrymadesimilarlypositiveremarksonMarch30,duringhismeetingwithAzerbaijans
PresidentIlhamAliyev,attheNuclearSecuritySummit,inWashington.Andnotably,sincelate
lastyear,theconstructionoftwokeylegsoftheSouthernGasCorridortheTrans-Anatolia
NaturalGasPipeline(TANAP)andtheTrans-AdriaticPipeline(TAP)arebeing
accelerated,whiletheEuropeanCommissionhasapprovedtheagreementbetweenGreece
andTAP(Eeas.europa.eu,February29State.gov,March30 Apa.az,December7,2015
Trend.az,November27,2015Europa.eu,March3).
ThetimingoftheApril2016escalationinKarabakhontheeveoftheupcomingWarsaw
summitisevenmorenoteworthywhenlookedatinretrospect.Indeed,priortoNATOs
WalessummitinSeptember2014,asimilar(butsmallscale)escalationoccurredalongthe
LineofContactinAugust2014(RFE/RLAugust4,2014),andbothinstancesofviolent
escalationwereultimatelyextinguishedbyRussiasdirectintervention.Theapparentsignal
beingsenttotheAllianceviatheselatestclashescan,thus,beclearlydeduced.
Thepossibleeruptionoffull-scalewarbetweenAzerbaijanandArmeniawouldhavea
profoundlynegativeeffectontheenergyinfrastructureoftheentireregion,butespeciallyon
thatofAzerbaijan.Andsuchascenariowouldhavecatastrophiceffectsonforeign
investmentsintheenergysectorandforongoingtrans-regionalenergyprojects,suchasthe
SouthernGasCorridor.Assuch,theunresolvedKarabakhconflictisagreatconcernnotonly
tothepartiesimmediatelyinvolved,buttoNATOandthebroaderWestaswell.
--IlgarGurbanov
Forward ReadLater
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Senttime: 06/09/201610:41:44AM
FW:[MORN/EST---RUDEZINFORM101TRIPLEPLAY]Putin'sFavoriteUSShillMikeyAverkoon'EnhancedRussiaBashingatTheNew
Subject:
YorkTimes'[IFONLY!!]..[VRT/PB]MoscowDBCorrespondentAnna(IamnorelationtoBorys)Nemtsova:UAIsWalmartforTerroris...
Subject:Fwd:[MORN/EST---RUDEZINFORM101TRIPLEPLAY]Putin'sFavoriteUSShillMikeyAverkoon'EnhancedRussiaBashingat
TheNewYorkTimes'[IFONLY!!]..[VRT/PB]MoscowDBCorrespondentAnna(IamnorelationtoBorys)Nemtsova:UAIsWalmartfor
Terroris...
Date:Thu,Jun9,2016at11:59AM
Subject:[MORN/EST---RUDEZINFORM101TRIPLEPLAY]Putin'sFavoriteUSShillMikeyAverkoon'EnhancedRussia
BashingatTheNewYorkTimes'[IFONLY!!]..[VRT/PB]MoscowDBCorrespondentAnna(IamnorelationtoBorys)
Nemtsova:UAIsWalmartforTerrorists['NewWave'Scholarship]1940sUAUndergroundasKinkySexFiends(Whoin
Lubyankathinksthisstuffup?)
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Subject:TheNewYorkTimes
To:
EurasiaReview-http://www.eurasiareview.com/-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/
Thursday,June9,2016-http://www.eurasiareview.com/09062016-enhanced-russia-bashing-at-the-new-york-
times-analysis/
EnhancedRussiaBashingatTheNewYorkTimes
MICHAELAVERKO
Lastmonth,theso-called"paperofrecord",ranabarrageofone-sidedlydubiousanti-Russianleaningcommentary,
whichIsuspectmight'vebrokenitsmonthlyrecord.IthasbeensaidthatTheNewYorkTimesservesasagood
indicatorofwhatacertainwingoftheAmericanpoliticalestablishmentfavors.WhenitcomestoRussia,the
RepublicanandDemocraticestablishmentshavebeentopheavywithbiasesagainstthatcountry.Coveringarange
ofRussiarelatedtopics,thefollowingisanoverviewofsomeNYTarticlesfromlastmonth.
AndrewHiggins'May30piece"EfforttoExposeRussia'sTrollArmyDrawsViciousRetaliation",makesaslickpassing
acknowledgementofothertrollinstances,whileconcentratingonthe(aspresented)negativeoccurrencesinvolving
pro-Russianactivism.FatchancethattherewillbeaNYTarticlewhichprimarilyfocusesonanti-Russiantrollactivity.
Onereasonforthissituationmight'vetodowithelementsat"thepaperofrecord"favoringanti-Russiansentiment.
Anti-Russiantrollmannercoversseveralcategories,includingthesimplisticallyinaccuratecategorizationof"genocide
denier",relatingtohowmanyRussiansandSerbs(amongsomeothers)viewSrebrenicatootherwartimeareasof
masskilling.(Onthatandsomeotherissues,I'veaclearconscience.)
Hissubjectivitynotwithstanding,PeterBaker'sMay28article"TheRiseofDonaldTrumpTracksGrowingDebate
OverGlobalFascism",raisessomelegitimateenoughtalkingpoints.onthematteroffascisticqualities,Bakersteers
clearoftheeditorialprocess,whichhasessentiallycensoredvalidcounterstohispreferences.Heuncritically
referencesneoconRobertKagan,who(withhiswifeVictoriaNuland)doesn'tseemsodistraughtatthelevelof
violenceexperiencedbycounter-EuromaidanindividualswithinKievregimecontrolledUkraine.
Inhisarticle,Baker(whohaspreviouslycoveredRussiaforaconsiderableperiod)providesahyperlinkedreferenceto
apiecebyhisNYTcolleagueJonathanWeisman.Alongwithatleastoneothersource,Weisman'sMay26article"The
NaziTweetsofTrump'GodEmperor',"misrepresentswhatMelaniaTrumpsaidJuliaIoffe.M.Trumpisn'tajournalist
andEnglishisn'thernativelanguage.ItcanbereasonablydeducedthatM.Trumpbelievesthatinadivisiveway,
Ioffe,hasapenchantforbringingouttheworstelementsinsociety.
Ifquotedaccurately,M.Trumpcould'vechosenherwordsmorecarefully.HerUSRepublicanpresidentialcandidate
husbandDonald,isalifelongNewYorkerandlongtimesupporterofIsrael.Hisdaughter(fromhisfirstmarriage)
Ivanka,isaconvertedOrthodoxJew,whosehusbandisofthatdenomination.DonaldandIvankaseemtomaintaina
closerelationship.FoxNewsmediaanalystHowardKurtzcharacterizedIoffe'spieceonM.Trumpasahitjob.M.
TrumphasabasisfordislikingIoffe.ItappearsastretchtosuggestthatM.Trumpisanti-Jewish.
Meantime,itcanberationallyarguedthatIoffecomesacrossasbeingmoreofabigotthanwhatM.Trumpcanbe
reasonablyaccusedofonthatscore.AsahighprofileEnglishlanguagejournalistforseveralyears,Ioffewell
understandsthekindofsemanticsshehasutilized.OneofseveralexamplesisherOctober13,2013NewRepublic
article"RussiansStillLovePogroms",writtenwhenshewasaneditoratthatvenue.Asiftherearen'tnon-bigoted
Russians,inadditiontoanti-Russianbigots,whospewdisparaginglyinaccuratestereotypes.
ThispastApril29,RussiaInsiderhadafeaturetitled"JuliaIoffe:RussiansAreLike,YouKnow,ReallyAntisemitic",
followedwiththebyline"ApathologicalRussophobe,thisNewYorkerwriternevermissesachancetotellushow
awfulRussiansare...".ThethreaddiscussionattheaforementionedRussiaInsiderposting,isablendofsome
intelligentlyvalidcommentsagainstIoffeandthelevelofstupidbigotrythatIoffe(IMO)hasexpressedherself.
InhersuggestivedepictionofRussiansbeingcollectivelyonthebigotedside,sheignoresthenumerousexamplesto
thecontrary.I'verunintoagoodshareofearnestlymindedpeopleofRussianOrthodoxChristianand/orJewish
backgrounds,aswellasothers,who(putmildly)opposehercaricaturing.Thisparticularviewpointgetsdownplayed,
oromittedaltogetherin"thepaperofrecord",asIoffeislaudedbysomeasaherojournalist.
IoffesaidthatfollowingshortlyafterherpieceonM.Trump:"Theironyisthattoday,whenIwasgettingallofthis
horribleanti-SemiticshitthatI'veonlyeverseeninRussia,Iwasremindedthat26yearsagotodaymyfamily
cametotheUSfromRussia.WeleftRussiabecausewewerefleeinganti-Semitism.Itsbeenarudeshockto
everyone."
Suchisherignorance.CircatheColdWarperiodintheUS,talkradiohostAlanBerg,wasmurderedforreasons
connectedwithhisJewishbackgroundandprovocativelystatedliberalviews.BeforeandsinceBerg'smurder,some
Jewish-AmericanorganizationsandindividualJewshaveattestedtoexperiencinganti-Jewishbehaviorinoneformor
theotherintheUS.It'sneverthelessinaccuratetocollectivelylabelthatnationasanti-Jewish.
Foreconomicandsomeotherreasons,lifeintheUSSRhadacertainunpleasantnessformany,regardlessoftheir
ethno-religiousbackground.Inpost-SovietRussia,there'vebeennumerouschangesforthebetter,withdefiniteroom
forimprovement.It'sdisingenuoustosuggestdifferently.
MoscowisnowsaidtobethecitywiththelargestexpatIsraelipopulation,numberingaround80,000.InRussia,
prominentTVhostVladimirSolovyovperiodicallynoteshisJewishbackground.He'swellappreciatedbymany
patrioticallymindedRussians.Likewise,Russian-JewishanalystYevgenySatanovsky,isaccordedrespectinhis
RussiannationalTVappearances.There'renumerousotherexamplesinRussia,whichincludethestatureofthe
famousUkrainianbornJewishsingerIosifKobzon.
Initsshorthistory,post-SovietRussia,hashadmorethanoneprimeministerofknownJewishorigin.Inthe200plus
historyoftheUS,howmanypeopleofJewishbackgroundhaveservedasAmericanpresidentandvicepresident?
Duringthe2014SochiWinterOlympics,IoffedescribedtheRussianteenfigureskaterYuliaLipnitskayaas"flat-
chested".IsensethatIoffewould'veproblemsintheUSmarketifsheweretodescribeapopularAmericanteen
femaleprodigyassuch.(Ifthisexampleisconsiderednitpicking,let'sseeIoffecharacterizeapopularAmerican
teenphenominthesamemanner.)
Whatevertheethnicityandlocale,thebigotedanti-JewishcommentsdirectedatIoffe,servetodivertattention
awayfromthevalidcriticismofher.ThepasttragichistoryoftheJews,combinedwithanoticeableJewishmass
mediaandacademicpresence,formastaunchlyinfluentialoppositiontocontemporaryanti-Jewishbigotry.
Inconjunctionwiththatlastthought,onesensesthatBaker,WeismanandnumerousothersatTheNYT(aswellas
someothermajorUSmassmediaoutlets),haveselectiveblinderswhenitcomestointolerantremarks.Oflate,The
NYThasdefinitelyratchetedupthepromotionofnegativelyinaccurateperceptionsaboutRussia/Russians-
somethinguncleartonumerouspeople-someofwhomhaveahighlevelofformaleducation.
ThetitleofIvanNechepurenko'sMay16article"Ukraine'sEurovisionWinRousesaChorusofAngerandSuspicionin
Russia",severelydeemphasizestheotherwiseclearlycorruptEurovisionjudgingasdetailedinPhilButler'sMay18
RussiaInsiderpiece"BigBrother:YourEurovision2016Judge,Jury,andExecutioner".Nechepurenkowrites:
"Certainly,hersongwasinterpretedbymanyasanobliquecommentontheRussianannexationofCrimeain2014,
nottospeakofmostethnicUkrainiansandTatarsgeneraldistasteforanythingandeverythingRussian."
Anumberoffactssuggestthatviewisn'tsogreatassomesuggest.Theyincludethe:
-UkrainiansvotingveryfavorablyfortheRussianEurovisioncontestant
-pollingthatshowsmostethnicUkrainiansinCrimeasupportingthatarea'sreunificationwithRussia
-atowninKievregimecontrolledUkraine,whichprefersthattown'spre-SovietnameYelisavetgradhonoringa
RussianEmpireeraprincess,overitsSovietperiodnameandtheonepreferredbyanti-RussianleaningUkrainian
nationalists
-thenumerousethnicUkrainiansinvolvedwiththepro-RussianDonbasrebels
-RussiancontinuingtobethepreferredlanguageformanyethnicUkrainians,regardlessofhowtheyviewRussia
-thecontinuedhighprofilepresenceoftheMoscowPatriarchateaffiliatedUkrainianOrthodoxChurch
- indicationsthatanoticeablenumberofTatarsareokaywithCrimea'sreunificationwithRussia.

Nechepurenko'sstated"generaldistasteforanythingandeverythingfromRussian",didn'tpreventUkraine's2016
EurovisioncontestantfromappearinginSochiin2015.HerparentsremaininCrimea.
ChristinaPaschyn'sMay19op-ed"RussiaisTryingtoWipeOutCrimea'sTatars",istheexactoppositeofarelatively
objectivefactbasedpoliticalhistory.Thearticle'stitleisfactuallycontradictedbypost-SovietRussia's
acknowledgementoftheSovietWWIIeracollectivewrongdonetotheCrimeanTatarsandCrimeanTatarbeingone
ofthreeofficiallanguagesrecognizedinCrimea(alongwithRussianandUkrainian),sinceCrimea'sreunificationwith
Russia.
(Inresponsetothisobservation,someanti-RussianpropagandistshavenotedthatRussianremainsthemost
commonlyspokenofthethreemainlanguagesinCrimea.Whatthey'rereluctanttoaddisthatRussianisbychoice,
themostpopularlanguageinCrimea,therebymakingitdisrespectfultoadvocatearestrictionofthatlanguage.Try
gettingtheEnglishspeakingmajorityinSaskatchewanandmostoftherestofCanadatochangetheirlinguistic
preferencetoFrench.)
Paschyn'scherrypickedhistoricalaccountingomitstheslavetradeperpetuatedbytheCrimeanTatarKhanate
againstSlavsandothers.SheerroneouslysuggeststhattheCrimeanTatarspredominatedinCrimeabeforetheRus
eraSlavs(thedescendantsofmoderndayRussians,UkrainiansandBelarusians).TheRussianEmpire'stakeoverof
CrimeawaspartlymotivatedbythepersistentthreatposedbytheTurkishalignedCrimeanTatarKhanate.Within
reason,theRussianEmpirecanbeseenasthehistorical/culturalsuccessortoRus,priortoitsgettingsubjugatedby
theMongols.
PaschynjoinsNechepurnekoinignoringthevalidreasonsforbelievingthe2016Eurovisiontobeapolitically
motivatedfarce.Jamala'sfirstplacesong"1944",concernsanactionthathappenedasWWIIwasdrawingtoa
close.TheMay10VineyardSakerblogpost"TellEurovisionin1944StalinDeportedCrimeanTatarstoprotectThem
FromPunishmentforNaziWarCrimes",offersacountertoPaschymnay'sslant.Idon'tagreewitheverythingsaidin
thatVineyardSakerpost.IMO,itsvalidpointsarecloudedbysomefaultilyinappropriatecomments.
Asthatblogpiecenotes,there'sareasonedbasistobelievethatadisproportionatenumberofCrimeanTatarshad
collaboratedwiththeNazis,whotreatedthatcommunitybetterthanothersinCrimea.Stalinwasnoangel.atthe
sametime,hedidn'twanttoriskacivilwarinhiscountryasWWIIwasstillbeingfought.Hence,thecollective
deportationoftheCrimeanTatarstoSovietCentralAsia-anactthatarguablypreventedasettlingofscores.The
direwartimeconditionsintheUSSRandbrutishmannerofStalin,bestexplainthehorridcircumstancesthatledto
manyCrimeanTatardeathsduringtheirdeportationexperience.
Post-SovietRussiahascondemnedthecollectiveWWIIeradeportationoftheCrimeanTatars,whilecommitting
itselftoamulti-lingual/multi-culturalCrimea.ThiscomparesbettertoTurkey'streatmentoftheArmenianGenocide(a
moregruesomeactthanwhattheCrimeanTatarsexperienced)andtheKievregime'sattitudetowardsStepan
Banderaandhissupporters.
Paschyn'sreferencedclaimthatStalinhaddesignsonTurkeyappearfarfetched.Histroopmovementsindicatedthat
hehadotherpriorities.ForwhateveronenegativelythinksofStalin,hedidleaveAustriaaspromisedanddidn't
activelysupporttheGreekCommunists(attheendofWWII),inlinewithhisunderstandingwiththeWest.AsWWII
wasdrawingtoaclose,Turkeywasn'tinthecardsforanynoteworthySovietinfluence.
PaschynmentionstheCrimeanTataractivistMustafaDzhemilev.Nomentionismadeofhisoppositiontorecognizing
theArmenianGenocideandhisethniccleansingcallforhavingtheRussiansleaveCrimeaaltogether.Dzhemilev
gettingbannedfromenteringCrimeaispartofatitfortatprocessthatseesatravelbanagainstsomeRussian
citizensbyKievregimecontrolledUkraineandtheEU.
GiventhenatureoftheKievregime,Icandisagreeablyunderstanditsseekingtoexhibitextremepolitical
restrictions.Ontheotherhand,theEUconjuresupamoretolerantimage.TheEU'snon-travelbanonDzhemilevand
travelbanonIosifKobzon,isindicativeofapoliticallycorrectfascism.
SincereunifyingwithRussia,theCrimeanareahasn'thadthedegreeofpoliticallymotivatedkillingsevidentinKiev
regimecontrolledUkraine.There'reindicationsthattheminorityTatarcommunityinCrimeahave(aspreviously
noted)anoticeableelementwho'veacceptedthedesireoftheregion'spro-Russianmajority.
MaximTrudolyubovisthekindofquintessentialRussian"liberal",whotriggersdifferentreactions.Hispartisanviews
againstRussiafindspaceinWesternmassmediaoutletslikeTheNYT.AcaseinpointbeinghisMay26op-ed"The
SoreLosersofRussia",whichisrebukedinaMay27Proposition1blogpost"HowMaximTrudolyubovLetsIdeology
TrumpFacts".
Trudolyubov'sNYTcommentarymakesreferencetothedopingscandalinvolvingRussianathletics(track&field)-
somethingwhichIcommentedonthispastJanuary24.Asofthiswriting,adecisionisdueoutsoon,onwhether
Russia'sathletics'teamwillbeallowedtocompeteintheupcomingSummerOlympics.
Onthatsubject,TheNYThasmadeclearitspreferencebyregularlyfeaturingarticlesalongthelinesofTravis
Tygart'sMay25op-ed"ComeCleanRussia,orNoRio".Tygarttakesthepositionofaflawedmoralsupremacistand
ethnicprofiler.Todate,there'snobeyondareasonabledoubtevidencethatall,ormostofRussia'strackandfield
Olympiansareeitherdrugcheats,orgreaterviolatorsthanwhatexistselsewhere.Moreover,Russiansports
officialdomhaveacknowledgedthedopingproblem(intheircountry)undersanctionedreviewandhaveputforthan
efforttoimprovethemonitoringprocess.ItthereforeappearsdiscriminatoryforTygarttobrazenlysupportan
OlympicbanontheRussianathletics'team.
Tygart'suncompassionatestanceignoreswhatlegendaryRussianpolevaulterYelenaIsinbayevaandsomeothers
havesaid.AsistruewithmanyotherRussianOlympians,Tygarthasnoproofofwrongdoingonthepart
ofIsinbayevaandRussia'sathletics'coach,YuriyBorzakovskiy,whocompetedinthe800metersinfourSummer
Olympics,inclusiveofhis2004goldmedalvictory.
MichaelAverkoisaNewYorkbasedindependentforeignpolicyanalystandmediacritic.Thisarticlewasinitially
placedasatwopartfeatureattheStrategicCultureFoundation'swebsiteonJune7and8.
[TWOFORONE]
From:VRT
Subject:LOOKATTHIS---DoyoustillgiveoutDurantyawards?"UkraineIsWalmartforTerrorists"---
ANNANEMTSOVA---DAILYBEAST
[ED:AnotherDBgemfromAnna'IamnotrelatedtoBoris'Nemtsova..denouncingtheUAIntelServicesafterthey
nabbeda'ultrarightMarieLePenlovingFrenchman'tryingtosmuggleweaponsfromDNRovertoFranceinorder
towreakhavocduringtheEuroChampionGamesGOTTALUVIT!!]
Subject:UkrainesOutofControlArmsBazaarinEuropesBackyard-TheDailyBeast[ED:PBhitsthenailonthe
headwithregardto"MoscowCorrespondent"A.Nemtsova'sLatestDiatribe]
Aswithanyothercancer,stoppingitdependsonfindingthenexus.ThenexusofthearmsmarketinUkraineisin
theKremlin.IfyouwanttostopthearmsmarketinUkraine,youhavetoreturncontroloftheUkrainian-Russian
bordertotheUkrainiansandgettheRedArmyoutofthearmsbusinessinUkraine.TheRussianterroristsrunning
Donbasaremakingmoneyanywaytheycan.Ordinarytheftandextortionisroutineandprofitablebutthereal
moneyisindrugsandguns.Asinmuchoftherestoftheworld,terroristsinEuropearearmedbyPutinorhis
minions.Fatprofits(eagerlybankedbybankersnotjustinPanama,butalsoinLondongrad,theEUandtheUS)
areanaddedbonustothedestabilizationnecessaryforPutintokeeptheUS/EUoffbalancejustabout
everywhere.
RecognizingPutinasthenexusoftheillegalarmstradeinUkraineandtherestofEuropeisfundamentaltocuring
thatparticularmetastasisofhiscancerouspresence.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/09/ukraine-s-out-of-control-arms-bazaar-in-europe-s-backyard.html
1UkraineIsWalmartforTerrorists
ANNANEMTSOVA
TORTUREDTALK
06.09.161:00AMET
UkrainesOutofControlArmsBazaar
inEuropesBackyard
ExplosivesinterceptedbyKievssecurityservicemayhavebeenintendedfor
right-wingterrorattacksinFrance.Butaretheallegationscredible?
KIEVWhenthetheUkrainianSecurityService,theSBU,announcedrecentlythatithad
detaineda25-year-oldFrenchcitizen,GrgoireMoutaux,whowastryingtocrossthecountrys
borderintoPolandinavehiclefullofexplosivesandweapons,thatsoundedlikeamajorblow
againstterrorism.
SBUspokesmanVasylHrytsakdeclaredthataftertwoweeksofinvestigation,whichistosayof
interrogation,TheUkrainianSecurityServicemanagedtoprevent15terroristattackstargeting
theterritoryofFrance.
AccordingtotheSBUthisallegedFrenchcriminalattemptedtosmugglefiveKalashnikovassault
rifles,morethan50,000bullets,twoRPG-7anti-tankgrenade-launchers,100electronic
detonators,and125kilogramsofTNTacrossUkrainesfrontier.
Perhaps.ButinKiev,theannouncementwasgreetedwithdeepskepticism.Neitherlocal
journalistsnorindependentobserversplacemuchtrustinSBUreportsthesedays,andwithgood
reason.
ThetimingofHrystaksMondaypressconferencewassuspect,comingasitdidinthemidstof
scandalsdiscreditingtheSBU.Manynotedthatthespyorganizationannouncedthenewsaboutits
successfuloperationagainstMoutauxrightaftertheUnitedNationscondemneditforrunning
secretprisonsandtorturingprisoners.Itallsoundedlikeapublicrelationsgambit,television
anchorKaterinaSakirianskatoldTheDailyBeast.
Ukraine
Handout
Unfortunately,whenbothUkraineandEuropeareendangeredbyterrorismandneed
professionalsecurityservicesmorethanever,thereisnotmuchconfidenceinwhattheSBUtells
us,independentjournalistSakenAymurzaevtoldTheDailyBeast.
Puttingasideforamomentthemoralandlegalissues,confessionsextractedwithtortureare
notoriouslyunreliable,andwhateverthetruthofMoutauxscase,thereslittlequestionthe
countryhasbecomeathrivingarmsbazaarforjustaboutanyonewithmoneytobuyrightinthe
backyardofEurope.
TheideologicalandethnicconflictthathastornUkraineapartoverthelasttwohearshasattracted
radicalnationalistsfromdifferentcountries,someoftheminvolvedinweaponsmuggling.Among
these,notably,wereafewFrenchvolunteers,ideologicalsupportersofpro-Russianforceswho
werefightingineasternUkrainetwoyearsago.
Polandhadtoincreasesecuritymeasureslastyeartotrytoprevent
ADVERTISING
criminalsattemptingtotransportweaponsfromUkraineintoits
inReadinventedbyTeads territory.Ifin2013Polishpoliceseizedonlythreefirearmssmuggled
fromUkraine,lastyearlawenforcementarrestedsmugglerswith53
guns,andtherearemany,manymorewherethosecamefrom.
Thereareover200,000peopleinvolvedinanti-terrorist[anti-rebel]
operationsinUkraineif10percentofthemilitiasoldweaponsor
committedsomecrime,thatwouldbe20,000incidents,Kiev-based
BelarusianjournalistanddissidentPavelSheremettoldTheDaily
Beast.
Newsreportsoflawenforcementofficialsdiscoveringundergroundarsenalshavegrown
commonplace.Formervolunteermilitiaandregularmilitaryoftensmuggleweaponsfromthewar-
tornDonbasregiontoKiev.
Lastweekpolicediscoveredabigundergroundarsenalofhandgrenades,guns,explosives,and
otherweaponsinagarageontheoutskirtsofKiev.Mostprobablytheseweaponswerebroughtto
Kievfromthezoneofanti-terroristoperations,theheadofKievNationalpoliceAndriy
KrischenkosuggestedonSaturday.
InJuly2014TheDailyBeastinterviewedUkrainianvolunteersineasternUkraineabouttheprices
forKalashnikov.AtthetimeoneKalashnikovcouldbepurchasedinthecombatzoneforlessthan
$500andsoldinKievformorethan$2,000.ButnotmanyineasternUkrainewoulddareto
reporttotheSBUaboutmilitaryviolations,sincepeopleareafraidtoendupinoneofthesecret
detentioncenters.
BothHumanRightsWatchandAmnestyInternationalreportthatSBUofficerssystematically
breakUkrainianlaw.Legally,theSBUisnotsupposedtohavedetentionfacilitiesandtorture
people,saysTatyanaLokshina,seniorresearcheratHumanRightsWatch.Thereisevidencethat
interrogatorshanguptheirvictimsandtorturethembybeatingthemwithsticksorgivingthem
electricshocks.
Ukraine
Handout
HumanRightsWatchandAmnestyInternationalrecentlysentajointrequesttotheSBUasking
aboutconcretefacilities,concretevictims,asLokshinatoldTheDailyBeast.
Internationalobserversbecameespecially
GETTHEBEASTINYOURINBOX! suspiciousinMaywhentheSBUdidnot
Byclicking"Subscribe,"youagreetohavereadtheTermsofUseandPrivacyPolicy
allowaUNdelegationconcernedwith
SUBSCRIBE torturedtohaveaccesstoparticularsites
theobserverswantedtovisit.The
delegationchief,MalcolmEvans,saidthat
theteamwaspreventedfromvisitingsomeplaceswherewehaveheardnumerousandserious
allegationsthatpeoplehavebeendetainedandwheretortureorill-treatmentmayhaveoccurred.
AtthepressconferenceSBUspokesmanHrystakcomparedjournaliststopriests:Pastorsusethe
Bibleandgospelforpreachingandjournalistsuseinformation,whichcouldbeservedindifferent
ways,Hrytsaksaid,apparentlytryingtobuildabridgeoftrusttothepress.Butitsdoubtfulthat
willgetfar.
AllwehearlatelyisthattheSBUisinvolvedinscandalsthatdiscreditit,independentreporter
SakenAymurzaevexplained.
LastweekUNAssistantSecretaryGeneralforHumanRightsIvanSimonovicsaidthattheSBU
massivelydetainedandtorturedsupportersofthemilitiaofthebreakawayrepublicsineastern
Ukraineshowsentrencheddisregardforhumanrights.
OnemorescandalearlierthismonthinvolvedthefirstdeputyheadoftheSBU,VictorTrepak,a
closeallyofUkrainesPresidentPetroPoroshenko.Heresignedafterleakingmaterialsaboutso-
calledblackaccountingtoUkrainiannewspapers.
LastmonthawebsiteaffiliatedwithSBUleakedalistofnamesandprivateinformationofall
journalistscoveringtheconflictintheDonetskregion.Somelawenforcementofficialsblamed
reportersforcoveringbothsidesofthefrontlines.Buttoinvestigatecrimesagainsthumanity,
includingillegalsmugglingofweapons,reportershadtocoverbotheastandwestofUkraine.
TheUkrainianSecurityServicehavebeencriticizedforincompetenceandforviolatingpeoples
rightsformanyyears.
TodayUkraineneedsprofessionalsecurityservicestocontrolthemilitiawhotradeKalashnikovs,
handgrenades,RPGS,explosivedevices,andTNTthattheygetoutoflandmines,acountless
numberthatnobodycounts,saysGennadyGudkov,aformerKGBofficernowoperatingoutof
Moscowasasecurityconsultant.
From:Roma<romashka1@aol.com>
Subject:IllegitimatesexualpracticesintheOUNundergroundandUPAinWesternUkraineinthe1940sand1950s
[ED:AndthisisafterLvivU'sOksanaKiswentoutofherwaytopointoutthe'refreshingequalityofsexes'thatthe
UAundergroundpracticed'backintheday'.]
To:Waz<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,yatato1@aol.com,4petrop@verizon.net,
thunczak@andromeda.rutgers.edu
UnbelievabletowhatleveltheRusskiesstoop.
http://pipss.revues.org/4214

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'Little Green Men'

'Little Green Men'

TO NUKE OR NOT TO NUKE

TO SNOWDEN OR NOT TO SNOWDEN

TO NUKE OR NOT TO NUKE

TO SNOWDEN OR NOT TO SNOWDEN

Pryvit May 26th, 2016.

Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.

Pryvit May 26th, 2016.

Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.

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