Nepal COS
Nepal COS
Nepal COS
FOR
NEPAL
July 1999
STS:NEP 99006
CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ii
I.
BACKGROUND
II.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Issues
Constraints
Development Outlook and Potential
The Government's Development Objectives and Priorities
2
4
5
6
III.
A.
B.
IV.
V.
Experience
Prospects
7
11
11
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
11
13
14
15
20
20
21
21
22
Broad Thrust
Criteria for Intervention
Criteria for Sector Involvement
Operational Thrust of the Strategy
Gender and Development
Regional Cooperation
Governance
Private Sector Development
Aid Agencies Cooperation
22
A.
B.
C.
22
25
26
APPENDIXES
28
ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Evaluation of Previous Country Operational Strategy Study
Agreement was reached with the Government on the last Country Operational Strategy
Study in April 1993. Modest improvements have since been recorded in human development and
per capita income. However, prospects for substantial further development have deteriorated with
declining economic and export growth, a growing fiscal deficit, low investment efficiency, slowing
private sector growth, and inadequate domestic resource mobilization. Institutional weaknesses
have been compounded by high civil service staff turnover following frequent changes in
government. All stakeholders consulted in preparing this strategy identified poor governance and
corruption as major constraints.
The goal of the last country strategy was poverty reduction through broad-based economic
growth activities, support to basic social services and environmental protection, and private sector
development. It guided Bank investment to growth and equity-oriented projects and programs in
agriculture, transport, energy, tourism, industry, and social services. While identifying priorities, the
implementation of the strategy lacked (i) sector development plans (road maps) to provide a
framework for Bank intervention, (ii) performance standards to verify the impact on development,
and (iii) a realistic time frame for establishing and developing institutions to sustain development.
Past Bank assistance has created assets, but sustainability and development impact have
been limited. Poverty incidence remains high, and social and human development indicators low.
Progress has not been commensurate with past investment levels. The anticipated institutional
strengthening and policy improvement were not fully realized. All these factors have adversely
affected the delivery of development assistance.
Lessons from the 1993 Study
Achieving better results from Bank assistance will require tangible progress in good
governance. Future levels of Bank assistance will be directly linked to progress in addressing this
concern. Key lessons for future Bank interventions include the following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
iii
Main Elements of the New Strategy
The overarching goal of the new operational strategy is to achieve a sustainable reduction
in poverty through
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
iv
involvement in any sector or subsector will require an assessment of the extent to which the
following criteria are met:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
The Bank will play a substantive role in a sector or subsector where it has a
comparative advantage.
(iv)
Interventions will play a catalytic role in mobilizing additional financing from official
and/or private sources.
(v)
(vi)
Based on the assumptions1 of Banks current indicative planning figure and the intensity of
involvement in any sector over a period of time to sustain desired development impact, the Bank
would focus on up to 10 sectors/subsectors compared with 18 sectors/subsectors2 in the past. Ten
indicative sectors/subsectors are identified to allow future Bank assistance to focus on the three
operational objectives: (i) promoting economic growth; (ii) enhancing human development; and (iii)
protecting and improving the environment (see Figure E1). The sectors/subsectors include: (i)
agriculture, (ii) irrigation, (iii) roads, (iv) power, (v) finance, (vi) basic education, (vii) health, (viii)
water supply and sanitation, (ix) environment improvement, and (x) natural resources
management.
Implementation and monitoring of the Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) will be the main
thrust of rural development efforts. Key areas of assistance will be agricultural technology,
irrigation, rural roads, rural electrification, and rural finance. Improvement of corporate governance
and legal regulatory functions of prudential agencies within the framework of financial sector reform
will help to develop the necessary environment for effective resource mobilization as a key to
private sector development. Support to infrastructure will focus on roads and hydropower
development, with emphasis on promoting private sector participation in infrastructure
development. The Bank aims to promote human development with support to basic education,
health, and water supply and sanitation. Environment protection and improvement will be
supported through environmental management, and watershed rehabilitation and management.
Tourism will be promoted through public and private partnership in improving environmental
management particularly to enhance rural tourism. Actual sector/subsector involvement will,
however, be assessed and justified during the annual country programming based on the
preceding criteria.
Figure E1 summarizes the policy and institutional focus of the Bank strategy. Key
institutions are identified as focal points to translate and implement the strategy in achieving the
1
Assuming Banks annual lending of $80 million a year and average loan size of $20 million in Nepal, the Bank will
revisit the sector with an investment project every four years to support the momentum of institutional and policy
reform measures. For a 10 year-period, which is a reasonable timeframe for sustainable development, the Bank can
assist up to 10 sectors/subsectors.
These include forestry, irrigation, crop diversification, aquaculture, livestock, rural roads, rural credit, primary
education, secondary education, technical and vocational education, highways, civil aviation, tourism, rural water
supply and sanitation, urban development, power generation, power transmission and distribution, and industrial
development.
v
strategic approach of effective institutions through their changing roles in promoting the
participation of stakeholders and the private sector. The operational framework of the new strategy
summarized in Figure E2 provides necessary linkages of future Bank operations in various
sectors/subsectors to the corresponding objectives with government strategies and activities of
other key aid agencies. A sector development framework (road maps) summarizing the policy and
institutional development framework for key sectors and subsectors and demonstrating the
proposed approach will be prepared and agreed upon by the stakeholders. Performance standards
will also be established to measure progress toward the different stages of sector or subsector
development.
Modalities and Levels of Bank Involvement
While the strong emphasis on policy and institutional reform in the Bank's strategy may
suggest a need for program lending, past Bank experience with this modality in Nepal has not
been encouraging. Any additional quick-disbursing program loan will be jointly formulated with the
Government. Important elements of such assistance would include demonstrated Government and
community commitment and stakeholder support to the reform measures, while institutional
arrangements for effective implementation need to be carefully assessed and agreed upon. In this
regard, the Bank needs to closely monitor and learn from experiences in implementing the APP
and the ongoing program loan in the agriculture sector, which supports liberalization of fertilizer
trade and shallow tubewell irrigation facilities and related institutional reforms to promote private
sector participation.
The Bank will place much greater emphasis on project design issues. It will seek to ensure
strong local participation in and support for the projects, and will assess whether the institutional
and economic environment is conducive to private sector development. Promising results have
been shown in past Bank projects that involved community groups and non-government
organizations (NGOs) in project implementation. The Bank plans to work more closely with these
groups to improve project quality, but also recognizes that the capacity and capabilities of local
groups are limited, and that long gestation periods will often be required in such interventions. The
Bank will need to commit greater staff resources to effectively formulate, monitor, and evaluate
projects in Nepal.
The emphasis in the strategy on sector development modalities implies a more important
role for economic and sector work as well as longer term advisory and operational technical
assistance in sectors and areas where the Bank plays a leading role in policy dialogue and
institutional reform. Presently, the sectors include agriculture and rural development, rural finance,
water supply and sanitation, power, private sector development, governance, and civil service
reform.
Immediate priorities for economic and sector work include institutional support to
decentralization, public administration and civil service reform, improve corporate governance, and
effectively implement APP. The Bank will support institutional and policy analysis aimed at
improving efficiency of service delivery for road, power, basic education including lower secondary,
health, water supply and sanitation, urban services, and environmental management with
emphasis in promoting private sector participation or public and private partnership. It will work
more closely with stakeholders to build support for policy recommendations, and will cooperate
with all interested aid agencies in undertaking sector work so as to assist in developing consistent
approaches. The Bank will also need to make staff available to participate in and contribute to
sector policy and planning initiatives led by other aid agencies.
vi
While aid agencies coordination has improved over time, it is mainly confined to projectlevel activities to avoid duplication of effort. Efforts to adopt a coordinated approach to sector
development, including policy formulation and institutional development, have been inadequate. To
maximize the impact of external resources, further collaboration and cooperation not just
coordination in economic and sector work, policy formulation, institution analysis, and
improvement are necessary. The aid community is now focusing on improving such efforts through
agreement of common sector development frameworks to increase leverage and ensure
consistency in the policy and institutional reforms needed to improve investment efficiency.
Further development of economic linkages with neighboring countries will be an important
component of the new strategy. The Bank will continue to be proactive in promoting subregional
economic cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal. The Bank will continue to
involve Nepal in regional technical assistance activities to disseminate information about regional
best practices, particularly in relation to governance, institutional development, poverty reduction,
financing and provision of social services, and private sector development. The establishment of
better road network in the region will improve the access to market and trade opportunities. The
Bank will consider providing assistance to develop the policy and institutional framework needed to
realize potential benefits from regional cooperation with project-level initiatives involving bilateral
and trilateral linkages particularly in hydropower development and water resources management.
In line with the Banks policy on Asian Development Fund allocation among developing
member countries, future lending to Nepal will be linked to progress in addressing the major
country performance issues that will improve the environment for private and public investments to
generate and sustain development impact. Five key areas including (i) human development; (ii)
fiscal performance; (iii) civil service reform; (iv) governance; and (v) portfolio performance have
been identified and performance standards established accordingly for further monitoring and
evaluation of achievements. These key areas are essential to develop effective institutions in order
to sustain desired development impact. Progress reports, which will be prepared jointly by the
Bank and the Government, will be part of the annual Country Assistance Plan covering the Banks
three year rolling plan of lending and TA program in Nepal.
Risks affecting the successful implementation of the new strategy include internal and
external risks. Internal risks include (i) continued political instability which diverts resources and
attention to focus on development priorities and agenda and (ii) lack of political commitment to
undertake necessary reform measures to develop appropriate policy and institutional environment
to ensure effective private and public investments. The newly elected majority government in May
1999 may provide better prospects for political stability. The external risk relating to the impact of
Asian financial crisis and international downturn is considered minor relative to the internal risks. A
key risk, however, lies within the Bank. The strategy emphasizes participatory approaches at all
stages of the project cycle and recognizes that much greater emphasis needs to be given to
institutional development. Both institutional building and participatory processes are timeconsuming. Difficult topography and a limited transport network will require relatively more time for
domestic travel to rural areas. The new strategy therefore requires Banks commitment to allocate
greater staff and time resources including those to NRM to effectively formulate, supervise,
monitor, review, and evaluate assistance and interventions in Nepal.
I.
BACKGROUND
1.
Nepal began to make systematic attempts to develop a modern system of administration,
social services, infrastructure, and production only in the 1950s. With adult literacy at only 2
percent, the starting base for development was much lower than for most other Asian economies.
While notable progress has been made in many areas including the expansion of road access,
schools and health posts, telecommunications and electrification, socioeconomic development still
lags well behind that in other Asian countries. The low level of socioeconomic development is
reflected in low per capita income, widespread poverty, low life expectancy, high infant mortality,
poor literacy rates, and low education standards (see appendix 1). 1
2.
The agriculture sector's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) declined from around
70 percent in the 1970s to 42 percent in 1998. 2 Agriculture directly provides livelihood for more
than 80 percent of the population. Average growth in GDP increased from 2.4 percent in the 1970s
to 4.8 percent in the 1980s and 4.7 percent in the 1990s. Because of high population growth,
however, real per capita income only increased from $150 to $200 in three decades. Growth has
fluctuated substantially from -2.3 to 4.4 percent in the 1970s, -3.0 to 9.7 percent in the 1980s, and
1.9 to 8.2 percent in the 1990s.
3.
Nepal made good initial progress in
improving
macroeconomic
stability
and
accelerating economic growth in the early 1990s.
Since 1994, however, there have been signs of
deteriorating economic prospects, including a
growing resource gap3 particularly after FY994.
The current account deficit has widened, with
continuing growth in imports and slow growth in
the narrow export base (Figure 1) exemplified by
the structural weakness in the industrial and
export base. Two major exports (carpets and
garments) have experienced setbacks, and the
private sector has been reluctant to invest due to
a combination of weak market institutions and a
politically
unstable
environment. 4
Political
instability has also delayed implementation of key
reforms,
including
privatization
and
tax
rationalization. The fiscal deficit, which gradually
declined in the early 1990s, has slowly increased
since FY1995 (Figure 2) as a result of stagnant
revenue growth and continuing growth in regular
expenditures. There is also a trend of increasing
reliance on foreign assistance, which has
contributed substantially to support the countrys
development budget (see para. 26).
(%)
30
35
30
25
25
20
2
3
4
Current
Account Deficit
(NRs billion)
20
15
15
Current
Account Deficit
(% of GDP)
10
10
5
Trade Account
Deficit (% of
GDP)
0
FY1988
FY1990
FY1992
FY1994
FY1996
Figure2:FiscalDeficit
(%)
FY1998
NRs billion
12
20
18
10
16
14
12
6
10
8
FiscalDeficit
(NRsbilion)
6
4
2
0
0
FY1988
FY1990
FY1992
FY1994
FY1996
________________________
1
NRs billion
Asian Development Bank. 1998. Key Indicators of Developing Asia and Pacific Countries. Manila, Philippines.
See also CER: NEP 98023: Country Economic Review, Nepal, January 1999.
Corresponds to current account deficit or saving and investment gap.
The newly elected government in May 1999 is the seventh government in the past six years.
FY1998
FiscalDeficit
(%ofGDP)
2
4.
Economic liberalization including interest rate determination, removal of industrial licencing
and other barriers to trade, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and liberalization of domestic
air routes and finance companies led to strong private sector growth in the 1990s, but state entities
still dominate the key areas including agriculture marketing, commercial banking and rural finance,
power, and water supply. Low efficiency and poor service delivery characterize public sector
investments. The investment5 to GDP ratio is higher than in other South Asian countries, but output
growth is low with the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) averaging 5.3 during the past six
years. Had investments been used more efficiently to achieve an ICOR of 4.0, annual growth
would have averaged 5.7 percent. With an ICOR of 3.0, annual growth would have averaged 7.6
percent. Given the fiscal constraints, a difficult external environment, and shrinking global external
resources, this basic arithmetic shows the critical need to improve private and public investment
efficiency in any development strategy for Nepal.
II.
A.
Issues
1.
5.
Poverty is the most pressing problem in Nepal: more than 9 million people or about 45
percent of the population live below the poverty line. 6 Substantial resources, including Bank
assistance, have been targeted at reducing poverty, but there is little tangible evidence7 of a
significant decline in poverty. Poverty is reflected in both economic terms and in poor social and
human conditions. Human development in Nepal, as measured by the Human Development
Index, 8 is among the lowest in the world (152nd out of 174 countries). The estimated annual
population growth of 2.5 percent, combined with poor economic performance, place considerable
strains on the country's ability to achieve sustainable human development.
6.
Poverty incidence varies among geographical regions, with rural poverty incidence almost
twice that of urban poverty (Table 1). Within rural areas, poverty is extreme in the more remote
areas, particularly in the hills and mountains, Mid-Western and Far-Western regions. Low and
erratic economic growth constrains poverty reduction efforts. Of particular concern is the decline in
agricultural productivity over the past 30 years, with Nepal shifting from producing a food surplus to
having to import food. Environmental degradation is also a major problem, and is both a cause and
a consequence of rural poverty. Degradation of farm lands due to marginal cultivation,
encroachment in forests and grasslands, and deforestation have contributed to declining
agricultural productivity, thereby reinforcing the vicious cycle of poverty.
7.
Poverty reduction is the single goal of the countrys Ninth Five-Year Development Plan (the
Ninth Plan) for the period FY1998-FY2002. The goal is to reduce poverty incidence to 32 percent
by the end of FY2002 and to 10 percent within 20 years. The plan recognizes that failure to
formulate and implement appropriate policy and programs to meet specific development objectives
account for past failures to substantially reduce poverty. The plan also identified long-term
development objectives namely poverty reduction, employment promotion, and regional balanced
economic growth to be supported by its sectoral development plans. Conducive policy and
institutional environment will be pursued to promote private sector participation. Good governance
________________________
5
6
7
While public fixed investment has remained stable at 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), private fixed
investment has reached 15 percent from less than 9 percent of GDP in FY1990.
Central Bureau of Statistics. 1995. Nepal Living Standard Survey, 1995. Kathmandu: National Planning Commission.
Poverty studies, with varying objectives and methodologies, have arrived at different results, making it difficult to
make definitive conclusions about progress in reducing poverty. There is no consistent time series, but studies
suggest that the incidence of poverty is somewhere between 42 and 52 percent during FY1985-FY1995.
United Nations Development Programme. 1998. Human Development Report 1998. New York: United Nations.
3
is important to ensure effective public and private investments. Decentralization is a key element to
utilize local administrations like village development committees and district development
committees to formulate and implement development activities. This helps to promote ownership
as well as better serve local and diverse needs.
2.
8.
Women are generally poorer in respect of income, assets, and access to basic social
services. High population growth particularly disadvantages women, as frequent childbirth directly
affects women's health and reduces opportunities for them to participate in economic activities.
Gender disparities in human development, especially literacy, school enrollment, and life
expectancy,9 are major problems. Barriers to more equitable gender participation result from
biases in formal institutions (e.g., property rights, inheritance laws, and labor laws) and informal
barriers resulting from social norms. Disadvantaged castes, the poor, and ethnic communities
experience relatively higher levels of gender disparities, particularly in education. There is no legal
protection from domestic violence, and women often suffer from harder manual chores in rural
areas including farm work, fetching water, and fuelwood collection among others.
Table 1: Regional Disparities in Social and Economic Indicators
(% of population)
Region
Chronic Child
Malnutrition (<
3 years old)
Population
Without
Access to
Safe Water
Adult Illiteracy
Rate
Children
Out of
School
Population
with Poor
Income
Nepal
48.4
33.2
62.8
34.1
45
Urban areas
Rural areas
35.4
49.3
11.6
36.2
36.5
65.5
13.9
35.8
18
47
Ecological
Regions
Mountains
Hills
Terai
56.6
48.7
46.9
43.3
44.6
21.0
72.0
59.8
64.1
41.8
25.9
40.7
63
50
37
Development
Regions
Eastern
Central
Western
Mid-Western
Far-Western
38.3
50.9
50.0
51.0
53.2
36.9
24.6
26.8
56.9
29.3
58.1
64.9
60.5
67.8
65.0
27.8
39.5
25.7
44.3
34.0
43
34
45
59
65
Source: Nepal South Asia Center. 1998. Nepal Human Development Report 1998. Kathmandu, Nepal.
9.
There are also regional differences in human development (Table 1). The largest disparity
is between rural and urban populations, but even in urban areas more than one-third of adults are
illiterate. Lack of rural infrastructure and difficult terrain in most of the Far- and Mid-Western
compared with Eastern, Western and Central Regions deprive the population of easy access to
market and economic activities as well as education and heath facilities. While Kathmandu is
located in the Central Region, the region has the lowest poverty incidence and highest access to
safe water, but nevertheless, adult illiteracy and child malnutrition remain high compared to other
________________________
9
Natural selection generally concludes higher female life expectancy, but in Nepal lower life expectancy in females
than in males was observed in the past.
4
regions of the country. Despite a below average rate of population with poor income, the terai 10 has
relatively high levels of child malnutrition, adult illiteracy, and children not attending school. While
poverty is relatively high in the hill areas, the population is better-off in terms of adult literacy, and
the proportion of children attending school. The Eastern Region is better off in terms of most
socioeconomic indicators, and the Central Region is generally better-off than the three western
regions. But even in the Far-Western Region, where the level of poverty in income is far higher
than elsewhere, the level of school attendance is close to the national average, and access to safe
water exceeds the national average. Indeed, there are major differences in priority needs even
across districts.11
3.
Environmental Concerns
10.
The countrys environment is under increasing pressure. High population growth rates,
combined with high poverty incidence, especially in the rural areas, are major factors leading to
serious environmental degradation. Soil erosion, deforestation, biodiversity loss, air and water
pollution, and inadequate sanitation and solid waste disposal in urban areas are major
environmental problems facing Nepal.
11.
The majority of the population rely on natural resources for their livelihood. In striving for
survival, the rural poor increasingly practice indiscriminate collection of fuelwood and cultivation of
marginal lands. The results are degradation of watersheds and soil resources and further declines
in the productivity of labor and land. High population growth and ecological problems in both urban
and rural areas compound the vicious cycle of poverty.
B.
Constraints
1.
12.
Being a landlocked and mountainous country with poorly developed infrastructure and a
small domestic market, Nepal faces physical constraints to development. These constraints
increase the costs of doing business and weaken the incentives for commercial investment. Per
capita costs of infrastructure investments are high due to the mountainous terrain.
13.
India is Nepal's largest trading partner and foreign investor, but also a close competitor for
most commodities. Until recently, Nepal, India, and other neighboring countries have followed
inward-looking economic policies providing few opportunities to develop international trade,
tourism, and investment cooperation. In the last decade, these countries have made some
progress in opening up to greater economic cooperation. Economic liberalization provides
opportunities to promote shared economic prosperity, but also makes Nepal more vulnerable to the
impact of the financial and economic crises in neighboring countries. The close linkage 12 of the
Nepalese and Indian rupee preempts the pursuit of an independent monetary policy.
2.
14.
A poorly developed national transport network, with weak links to other countries,
contributes to high transport costs that further impede growth in commercial activity. Labor costs
are low in absolute terms, but labor is largely unskilled and the cost structure is relatively high due
________________________
10
11
12
Lowland areas in southern Nepal that share borders with the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
This was confirmed during visits to 10 villages in Surket, Banke, and Kavrepalanchowk districts of terai and mid-hills
in Mid-Western and Central Development regions during 15-18 August 1998; three terai villages in Sunsari and
Morang districts in Eastern Development Region during 25-26 January 1999; and two mid-hill villages in Gulmi and
Syangja districts in Central Development Region during 3-11 March 1999.
The Nepalese rupee is pegged to the Indian rupee at NRs1.60 to Re1.00.
5
to low productivity. This has been a major constraint in enhancing competitiveness in industrial and
export products.
15.
Both the public and private sectors suffer from shortages of technical and management
skills. The lack of skilled human resources and consequent weaknesses in institutional capacity
contribute to delays in the implementation of investment projects. Mechanisms to provide skills and
training that are relevant for raising productivity in agriculture and industry will be particularly crucial
to future economic development.
3.
16.
Nepal has many of the formal prerequisites for effective governance, but implementation
remains weak and often lacks efficiency, transparency, and accountability in the administrative
system. There are increasing allegations of corruption at many levels, and this represents a key
constraint to effective delivery of essential services. Basic institutions essential to the effective
functioning of a market economy either do not exist or do not operate effectively. Distrust among
various institutions is a major constraint to private sector investment. The ineffective performance
of the financial system and regulatory agencies is also cause for concern. Weaknesses in financial
management include a lack of basic professional standards in accounting and auditing, lack of
follow-up on audit recommendations, poor contract enforcement, low revenue collection, and
limited capacity for tax administration. Public service performance suffers from an excessive
number of ministries, inadequate remuneration, poor record keeping, excessive staff transfers, and
manipulation of rules and regulations to serve vested interests. Poor governance and the
unsustainable financial performance of public agencies and State-owned enterprises are a major
drain on limited public resources.
4.
Administrative Instability
17.
Frequent changes in Government have often been followed by a high turnover of
professional staff in the civil service. The turnover has adversely affected civil service morale and
distracted attention from the important policy and institutional reforms needed to secure and
sustain accelerated growth and economic stability. It has had major adverse effects on levels of
private investment, and has also contributed to distortions and discontinuity in the allocation and
distribution of public investment. Administrative instability, combined with increasing allegations of
corruption, could lead to social instability as society becomes disillusioned with the ineffectiveness
of domestic institutions in fulfilling the needs of civil society. This could constrain future
development and undo the limited progress made in the past.
C.
18.
Poverty reduction and accelerated and more equitable human development can only result
from developing an institutional environment that encourages efficient long-term investments.
There is limited scope for reducing poverty through more equitable allocation of resources,
including possible land reform. Thus, substantive progress in poverty reduction will depend on
accelerated and more sustainable economic growth and development.
19.
Political instability and economic concerns have delayed much-needed structural reforms in
recent years. Immediate attention should be given to improving governance and reducing
corruption in order to establish credibility in public and private institutions, which is essential to
increase confidence among investors particularly in contract enforcement and protection of
property rights. This is a prerequisite for encouraging investors to make long-term investments,
facilitating more rational resource allocation, and in increasing the alarmingly low investment
efficiency in both the public and the private sectors.
6
20.
Macroeconomic management is constrained by structural weaknesses in production and
the external sector, low resource mobilization, and the recent slowdown in the Indian economy.
Future public sector investments will continue to be constrained by poor domestic resource
mobilization and the availability of external resources. Private sector development will be adversely
affected by the dominance of public sector entities, continuing policy distortions and institutional
weaknesses, and uncertain international economic prospects.
21.
As noted earlier, agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Sustained improvement in
agricultural productivity depends on implementation of policy and institutional reforms to liberalize
markets for agricultural inputs and outputs. Other potential growth areas include tourism and
hydropower development. Nepal has a large but mostly unrealized hydropower potential. There is
substantial scope for developing this potential, mainly for export to India. Because of the huge
investments required, the Government needs to establish an institutional, regulatory, and legal
framework conducive to private sector participation in hydropower development. Tourism receipts
could be expanded through better organized tourism promotion efforts, and improvements in
tourism-related infrastructure and services. In implementing such promotion and development, the
Government must ensure that environmental concerns are fully addressed. Finally, as a landlocked
country with a relatively small domestic market, the expansion of trade, investment, and economic
cooperation with neighboring countries and the rest of the world will be essential in realizing
Nepals full economic potential.
D.
22.
Poverty reduction remains the ultimate and immediate objective of the Government in the
Ninth Plan covering the period July 1998-July 2002. This objective is to be achieved by (i)
accelerating the average annual economic growth to 6 percent; (ii) bringing the rural population
into the development mainstream, with priority given to agriculture and other growth-inducing
sectors; (iii) reducing economic disparities between regions and communities; and (iv)
decentralizing the implementation of development programs and projects. Apart from the ambitious
poverty reduction targets (para. 7), the plan seeks to eliminate illiteracy (currently 60 percent) by
2005, reduce infant mortality to 25 per thousand (currently 86), and increase average life
expectancy to 72 (now 57) for males and 75 (now 56) for women by 2017.
23.
The Government is committed to achieving higher agricultural productivity and growth as
envisaged in the Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) with a more coordinated approach to
providing inputs and services, and especially rural infrastructure (including irrigation, power, and
roads), rural credit and marketing, and research and extension services. The Ninth Plan includes a
provision for adequate allocation of resources to agriculture as envisaged in the APP. It includes
commitments to gradually remove fertilizer and shallow tubewell subsidies and liberalize the
fertilizer trade, improve the policy environment for private sector activities, and implement other
institutional reforms and strengthening outlined in the APP. It is recognized that substantial
improvements will be required in resource mobilization and/or expansion of external support.
24.
The Ninth Plan also emphasizes the need for reducing regional imbalances through
socioeconomic advancement of the less developed regions. The Government recognizes that
prioritization and close monitoring of investments and the preparation of three-year rolling
investment plans are crucial to realizing higher and sustainable growth. The Ninth Plan also
envisages developing the countrys own natural, human, and economic resources to gradually
reduce dependence on foreign aid. However, overdependence on foreign financing will be resolved
if the Government is able to effectively implement the planned reforms in tax structure and
administration, including the value-added tax (VAT). 13
________________________
13
Introduced on 16 November 1997. Resistance from the business community has delayed full implementation.
7
25.
The major thrusts of the Ninth Plan are in the right direction, but the targets are ambitious.
Achievement of these targets will require substantial resources, and an unprecedented
commitment to effective implementation of well-targeted programs. Poor domestic resource
mobilization, shrinking external resources, and administrative instability are working against the
realization of these targets. The Ninth Plan targets an average annual growth of 6 percent, but
average growth for the first two years (FY1998 and FY1999) was less than 2.5 percent, which
barely matches the estimated annual population growth. Of particular concern is the negative
growth of agricultural output per capita for the past two years. In the absence of clear progress in
implementing structural and policy reforms and institutional development, there is a real risk that
the country will continue to suffer from the constraints that have prevented it from breaking the
vicious cycle of poverty.
III.
A.
Experience
1.
General
26.
Multilateral
and
bilateral
aid
Figure 3: Development Assistance
(%)
NRs billion
agencies have provided substantial and
20
increasing aid flows to Nepal. Foreign 65
18
assistance increased more than two times
16
in the past decade and financed more than 60
14
60 percent of development expenditures in
12
Foreign
FY1998 compared to barely 50 percent in 55
10
Assistance
(NRs billion)
FY1992
(Figure
3).
Total
official
8
6
development assistance (ODA) inflows 50
4
amounted to 6 percent of GDP in FY1998.
2
Japan is the largest bilateral source,
45
0
accounting for nearly half of the total
FY1988
FY1990
FY1992
FY1994
FY1996
FY1998
bilateral flows, followed by Denmark,
Germany, United States, and United Kingdom. The Bank and World Bank are also important
sources of ODA. Most bilateral grant assistance has a regional or sector focus, or both, with a
concentration on social sectors and soft components, including capacity building and training. The
Government has made it clear that it prefers not to finance these sectors with borrowings; thus, the
Bank and World Bank have focused on developing social and physical infrastructure. Past Bank
investments have included cofinancing arrangements with bilateral agencies. The size and range
of sector assistance provided by the Bank and World Bank give considerable leverage to engage
in policy dialogue with the Government and to assist it in pursuing macro and sector-level policy
reforms particularly in public expenditures, agriculture, industry, energy, tourism, roads and civil
aviation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have supported the Government
in macroeconomic management through structural adjustment programs.
ForeignAid
Financing(%of
Development
Expenditure)
27.
There have been major improvements in coordination/collaboration among aid agencies at
project and sector14 levels, especially in terms of avoiding overlapping activities. The aid
community is now focusing on improving such efforts through agreement of common sector
development frameworks to increase leverage and ensure consistency in the policy and
institutional reforms needed to improve investment efficiency.
________________________
14
The process of formulating the APP was a good example of aid agencies working together effectively.
8
2.
28.
The objective of the last Bank country operational strategy was poverty reduction, with
emphasis on broad-based economic growth, while supporting basic social services and
environmental protection. This guided Bank investment to growth-oriented projects and programs
in agriculture, transport, energy, tourism, industry, social services, and projects with distributive
effects. The strategy also supported private sector development. Although essential areas of
intervention were identified, the planning and formulation of past assistance lacked (i) sector
development plans (road maps) to provide a framework for Bank interventions to meet short-,
medium-, and long-term objectives; (ii) performance standards to verify the achievement of
development impact; and (iii) required time frame to establish and develop the necessary
institutions to sustain development. These deficiencies will be rectified in the new strategy.
29.
When the 1993 strategy was prepared, Nepal had its first democratically elected
government, the IMF was supporting macroeconomic management reforms under an enhanced
structural adjustment facility (ESAF), and the first industrial exports (carpets and garments) were
recording strong growth. Five years later, the macroeconomic environment had deteriorated on
most fronts (particularly saturation of export destinations and slow resource mobilization). The
continued political turmoil since 1994 has stalled necessary reform measures to further liberalize
the economy. The ESAF program expired in 1995, without the release of the second tranche,
because of Government failure to implement the agreed-upon structural reforms including
measures to improve resource mobilization, implement the VAT, and expedite privatization.
Attempts were made to develop a new program, but the IMF currently has no specific plans to
resume the program because of the social and economic environment, and the political instability.
30.
While Bank assistance has created assets in key sectors, sustainability in operation and
maintenance (O&M), and the generation of longer term development impact have been limited.
Poverty incidence remains high, and social and human development indicators low. The limited
progress has not been commensurate with past investment levels and benefits envisaged.
Anticipated progress in institutional strengthening and policy improvement were not fully realized.
All these factors have adversely affected the delivery of development assistance.
3.
Bank Experience
31.
The Bank approved a total of $1.6 billion for loans and $49 million in technical assistance
(TA) grants 15 to Nepal, between the commencement of Bank operations in 1968 and the end of
1998. Bank assistance has contributed to an expansion of the country's physical assets and some
development of human resources, but many of the outputs from past investments have not been
sustainable, and the overall development impact has been limited. Substantial delays in project
implementation and failure to comply with specific loan covenants remain as major problems in
achieving the desired objectives.
32.
The performance of Bank-financed projects in Nepal compares unfavorably with Bank-wide
performance, and with the performance of Group A16 and other South Asian 17 countries (Table 2).
Of 31 postevaluated Bank projects, 26 percent were classified as unsuccessful, compared with 11
percent Bank-wide, 15 percent in all Group A countries, and 13 percent in all South Asian
countries. Of the 10 most recently postevaluated projects, only 2 were considered generally
successful, 5 were partly successful, and 3 were rated unsuccessful. Given the importance of the
________________________
15
16
17
Bank and Japan Special Fund resources. The Bank also administered another $36 million in technical assistance
funds approved by other aid agencies.
The Bank classified 19 of its 57 member countries in Group A, of which GDP per capita is less than $600 a year.
Includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
9
agriculture sector in the country and its importance in the Banks investment portfolio,18 it is of
particular concern that three of the eight most recently post-evaluated agriculture projects were
rated unsuccessful. The overall agriculture sector performance has been very disappointing, with
per capita agriculture output declining during the 1990s (growth in agriculture value added of 2.3
percent per year, compared with the annual population growth of 2.5 percent).
33.
Inappropriate project design, inadequate policy and institutional environment, lack of
ownership, and insufficient monitoring and supervision are major causes of unsuccessful projects19
(see also paras. 37-38). Political instability, inefficient administration, policy distortion, and
institutional weaknesses continue to hamper private sector development and adversely affect the
effectiveness of development inputs to generate and sustain longer term development impact.
Poor governance and corruption are of major concern to all segments of society.
Table 2: Summary of Postevaluation Results
(as of 31 December 1998)
Country
Bank-wide
Group A countries
South Asia
Nepal
Total No. of
Projects
527
230
165
31
Generally
Successful (%)
56.9
47.8
49.7
48.4
Partly
Successful (%)
31.3
36.5
36.4
25.8
Unsuccessful
(%)
11.2
14.8
13.3
25.8
34.
On the positive side, there is n
i creasing evidence in Bank-supported projects that the
involvement of local groups and communities can help achieve the desirable impact of
development assistance20 in such areas as rural water supply and sanitation, farmer-managed
small-scale irrigation, and labor-intensive rural road construction as seen in Bank investments
formulated in the past few years.21 Greater consultation with stakeholders and their participation at
the local level during the formulation and implementation of development assistance are crucial to
enhancing ownership and sustaining the favorable impact of investments.
4.
35.
The presence of aid agencies in Nepal is substantial. Many different bilateral and
multilateral agencies assist most subsectors (see also Table E2). Aid agencies have made
increasing efforts in recent years to coordinate their activities to provide complementary
assistance. Bilateral assistance generally focuses on social and physical infrastructure projects,
and institution and capacity building. Multilateral assistance has included direct involvement in
supporting policy and institutional reform. Collaboration between the Bank and bilateral sources in
power, irrigation, and livestock development has been strengthened by combining capital
investments with policy and institutional reform initiatives.
________________________
18
19
20
21
The agriculture sector contributes about 42 percent of the GDP; 49 percent of the Banks past investment supports
agricultural development.
See also Postevaluation Office. 1993. Country Synthesis of Postevaluation Findings for Nepal. Manila, ADB.
The mobilization of community-based groups to implement rural water supply and sanitation schemes has generated
favorable results, particularly in promoting ownership, enhancing the sustainability of project benefits, and improving
womens status.
Loan No. 1165-NEP(SF): Third Water Supply and Sanitation Sector, for $20 million, approved on 25 June 1992.
Loan No. 1311-NEP(SF): Irrigation Management Transfer, for $12.9 million, approved on 13 September 1994.
Loan No. 1437-NEP(SF): Second Irrigation Sector, for $25 million, approved on 16 May 1996.
Loan No. 1450-NEP(SF): Rural Infrastructure Development, for $12.2 million, approved on 27 June 1996.
Loan No. 1464-NEP(SF): Fourth Rural Water Supply and Sanitation, for $20 million, approved on 24 September
1996.
10
36.
Local aid agency meetings at project and sector levels are convened on a regular basis.
The Nepal Aid Group, which normally convenes every 18 months, last met in Paris in April 1996.
The group has not met in recent years because of the frequent changes in government. The aid
agencies generally agree that it has become increasingly difficult to implement development
activities through national-level institutions. More successful experiences are being reported in
projects that facilitate the mobilization and/or utilization of local groups like farmers groups,
women's organizations, water users associations, and cooperatives to assist in identifying,
formulating and implementing development assistance projects. This approach, which is also
consistent with Bank experience, not only enhances ownership but also promotes sustainability
through local ownership, and the development of local institutional capacity.
5.
Lessons Learned
37.
The major factors contributing to the poor performance of Bank operations in Nepal include
(i) inappropriate project design without sectoral road map; (ii) inadequate Bank monitoring and
supervision; (iii) failure to enforce loan convenants; and (iv) inadequate assessment of institutional,
policy, and fiscal requirements. The effectiveness of key development and market institutions
essential to competitive markets has been weakened by frequent changes in government,
inefficient administration, and perceptions of widespread corruption.
38.
(ii)
(iii)
Sector approach (road maps). Interventions need to be consistent with the sector
development plan with short-, medium-, and long-term development objectives.
Performance standards need to be used to verify the achievements and help
formulate and justify further interventions.
(iv)
Loan covenants. Loan convenants on policy, institutional and financial issues that
are crucial to effective project implementation and ensuring sustainability of project
benefits need to be formulated and implemented with extensive stakeholders
consultation and strong support. The Bank has often not exercised necessary
measures to enforce loan convenants during project implementation.
(iv)
11
(v)
39.
The need to reorient the strategy for future Bank operations in Nepal to take account of
these lessons has been highlighted in consultation with government officials, aid agencies, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), the private sector, community groups, and beneficiaries, as
well as within the Bank.
B.
Prospects
1.
Resource Flows
40.
The issue of future resource flows is secondary to the need to achieve greater development
impact. Growth will be accelerated with focused investment priorities provided that investment
efficiency is raised to levels closer to regional norms. The aid community has growing concerns
about the political and institutional constraints that are adversely affecting the utilization of foreign
aid. While there is no indication of substantial decline in aid flows compared to the past, some aid
agencies have increasingly directed their assistance toward local and grassroot-level
organizations. Major sources including the Bank and World Bank intend to link future levels of
assistance to demonstrated progress by the Government in implementing policy and institutional
reforms needed to achieve greater development impact particularly through a changing role of the
Government to promote private sector development and effectively implement decentralization.
41.
There is potential for tapping private resources to finance development activities but this will
require tangible progress in developing an effective market and key institutions, and in
implementing policy reforms to reduce barriers to private sector investment. Immediate prospects
for foreign inflow of private capital are poor because of the policy environment and lack of
credibility in the formal institutions needed to enforce contracts and protect property rights.
2.
42.
The economic and financial problems in Asia, the international economic slowdown, and
the global reduction in the availability of official development assistance make it increasingly urgent
that the Government quickly address fundamental domestic constraints to attracting and making
more efficient use of investment resources. While resolving institutional constraints is a long-term
task, immediate steps can be taken to substantially improve the prospects including civil service
reform and meas ures to improve governance and reduce corruption. External resources may
facilitate this process, provided there is strong commitment and tangible progress. The Bank needs
to allocate more resources to monitoring and evaluating the development impact of Bank
interventions. Equally important are the issues of governance and decentralization, both of which
are determinants in achieving greater development impact. Bank resources will be needed to
complement the work being done by other donors in this areas and to support the implementation
of the Local Self Governance Bill, More work needs to be done in developing operational models
that involve the stakeholders more effectively in every stage of the project cycle.
IV.
A.
Broad T hrust
43.
The overarching goal of the Banks operational strategy is to achieve sustainable reduction
of poverty through
12
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
44.
Achieving this goal is particularly difficult in Nepal because of the lack of efficiency,
transparency, and accountability of key development and market institutions essential to the
development process. It is difficult to achieve any sustainable improvements in social and
economic well-being without public confidence and support for these key institutions. Thus,
building effective institutions needed to implement development activities and to support a market
economy is the strategic approach that will be taken. Improved governance will require policy and
institutional reforms, capacity building, and strengthening of key institutions to adapt to a changing
role of promoting private sector participation. Support to implement the Government initiative in
decentralization including utilizing local administrations to plan and implement development
activities are also important cross-cutting elements of the strategy. Other strategic elements
include private sector development, gender equity, and subregional cooperation. A thematic
representation of the Bank strategy is summarized in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Bank Strategy
OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE
OPERATIONAL OBJECTIVES
STRATEGIC APPROACH
Building
Effective
Institutions
AREAS OF EMPHASIS
13
B.
45.
The new strategy emphasizes that building capacity in order to maximize and sustain the
development impact of investments must take precedence over levels of assistance. The
importance of learning from past mistakes and successes by development partners is also
highlighted. Bank interventions will be most effective under the following environment.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
________________________
22
14
C.
46.
To effectively use the Banks limited concessional resources, a sharper focus on fewer
sectors/subsectors will be necessary. Future involvement in any sector/subsector will require that
the following criteria be met:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
The Bank will play a substantive role in a sector or subsector where it has a
comparative advantage.
(iv)
Interventions will play a catalytic role in mobilizing additional financing from official
and/or private sources.
(v)
(vi)
47.
Based on the assumptions23 of Banks current indicative planning figure 24 (IPF) for Nepal
and the intensity of involvement in any sector over a period of time to sustain desired development
impact, the Bank would focus on up to 10 sectors/subsectors compared with 18
sectors/subsectors25 in the past. Ten indicative sectors/subsectors are identified to allow future
Bank assistance to focus on the three operational objectives: (i) promoting economic growth; (ii)
enhancing human development; (iii) protecting and improving the environment (see Figure E1).
The sectors/subsectors include: (i) agriculture, (ii) irrigation, (iii) roads, (iv) power, (v) finance, (vi)
basic education, (vii) health, (viii) water supply and sanitation, (ix) environment improvement, and
(x) natural resources management.
48.
Implementation and monitoring of the APP will be the main thrust of rural development
efforts. Improvement of corporate governance and legal regulatory functions of prudential agencies
within the framework of financial sector reform will help to develop the necessary environment for
effective resource mobilization as a key to private sector development. Support to infrastructure will
focus on roads and hydropower development, with emphasis on promoting private sector
participation in infrastructure development. The Bank aims to promote human development with
support to basic education, health, and water supply and sanitation. Environmental protection and
improvement will be supported through environmental management, and watershed rehabilitation
and management. Tourism will be promoted through public and private partnership in improving
environmental management particularly to enhance rural tourism. Actual sector/subsector
involvement will, however, be assessed and justified during the annual country programming
based on the preceding criteria.
________________________
23
24
25
Assuming Banks annual lending of $80 million a year and average loan size of $20 million, the Bank will revisit the
sector with an investment project every four years to support the momentum of institutional and policy reform
measures. For a 10 year-period, which is a reasonable timeframe for sustainable development, the Bank can assist
up to 10 sectors/subsectors.
Corresponds roughly to the average annual disbursement of Nepal.
These include forestry, irrigation, crop diversification, aquaculture, livestock, rural roads, rural credit, primary
education, secondary education, technical and vocational education, highways, civil aviation, tourism, rural water
supply and sanitation, urban development, power generation, power transmission and distribution, and industrial
development.
15
D.
49.
Figure E1 summarizes the policy and institutional focus of the Bank strategy. Key
institutions are identified as focal points to translate and implement the strategy in achieving the
strategic objective of effective institutions through their changing roles in promoting the
participation of stakeholders and the private sector. The operational framework of the new strategy
summarized in Figure E2 provides necessary linkages of future Bank operations in various
sectors/subsectors to the corresponding objectives with government strategies and activities of
other key aid agencies. Sector development plans (road maps) summarizing the policy and
institutional development framework for key sectors/subsectors and demonstrating the proposed
approach will be prepared and agreed upon by the stakeholders. Performance standards will also
be established to measure progress toward the different stages of sector/subsector development.
1.
Economic Growth
a.
50.
Sustainable improvements in rural development are essential to reducing overall poverty,
as the incidence of rural poverty is more than 2.5 times that in urban areas. Despite the large
investments in agriculture in past decades, agricultural productivity has declined. The main thrust
of Bank assistance for rural development will be to support and monitor the implementation of the
APP. The APP aims to address institutional and policy weaknesses that have constrained past
agricultural development efforts, and to achieve a sustainable annual agricultural growth of 5
percent over the next 20 years. It includes a packaged approach to agricultural development, in
which priority inputs (fertilizer, irrigation, roads, power, credit, and agricultural technology) will be
provided as an integrated package to boost productivity. The investment requirements and priority
needs for improvements in the institutional and policy environment are specified with clear
objectives and targets. The participatory process adopted in formulating the APP will continue
during its implementation.
51.
The Banks ongoing agriculture program loan26 aims to address policy and institutional
impediments to realizing the planned increase in agricultural productivity under the APP. The
program includes liberalization of fertilizer trade and removal of the remaining distortions in
irrigation, food grain marketing, and rural credit. Successful implementation of the program loan is
crucial to successful implementation of the APP and future sector investments.
52.
Interventions in agriculture will contribute to diversification of production opportunities and
improvement of productivity. Bank assistance to the irrigation subsector will aim at mobilizing
community groups to directly involve them in identifying, designing, implementing, and maintaining
the project. Any additional assistance to the irrigation subsector will depend on demonstrated
improvements in implementation capacity in the Banks ongoing assistance.
b.
Rural Roads
53.
In developing other rural infrastructure and supporting services, a more flexible approach
will be taken, but for increased efficiency of Bank assistance there still needs to be clear and active
participation of all stakeholders, including community groups and the private sector, at all stages of
________________________
26
Loan No. 1604-NEP(SF): Second Agriculture Program , for $50 million, approved on 22 January 1998. With full
compliance with all first tranche release conditions, including first phase removal of subsidies on urea and shallow
tubewell irrigation facilities, action plan to restructure Agriculture Inputs Corporation, Nepal Food Corporation, and
institutional reforms in Ministry of Local Development, the first tranche amount of $25 million was released soon after
the loan was declared effective on 9 March 1998.
16
the project cycle. The Bank will continue to support reforms and institutional strengthening needed
for O&M of completed facilities in a sustainable manner. The implementation of the rural
infrastructure strategy and the road network master plan will be crucial to successful
implementation of the APP. The promotion of labor-intensive methods in rural road construction,
which has effectively increased the participation of and ownership by local communities, will
continue to be pursued.
c.
Rural Electrification
54.
Bank assistance in power transmission and distribution will be directed to supporting APP
implementation. Although substantial assistance has been provided to the Nepal Electricity
Authority (NEA), NEA still suffers from high technical and nontechnical losses and its financial
performance is not sustainable. The commercialization of NEA is critical to improving the efficiency
and financial sustainability of the sector. Priorities include reduction in high nontechnical losses;
and implementation of NEAs commercialization strategy including strengthening of management
capabilities, pursuing public-private partnership in generation and distribution, and ensuring
increased autonomy for NEA. Compliance with the financial covenants of Bank loans is a
prerequisite for sustainability, commercial viability, and future Bank assistance. Modalities will be
sought for more effective and efficient delivery of electricity in rural areas through cooperatives or
such agencies.
d.
Finance
55.
Improvements in financial intermediation and a deepening of the financial sector are
needed to enhance resource mobilization and to facilitate private sector development.
Inefficiencies in the three Government-owned banks dominating the sector Rastriya Banijya
Bank, Nepal Bank Limited, and Agricultural Development Bank of Nepal (ADBN) impede the
development of an efficient financial sector. These banks urgently need to be restructured to
operate on sound commercial principles. The ADBN is the major supplier of rural finance in Nepal,
but despite decades of Bank TA for institution building, the ADBN is nonviable due to major
problems with project appraisal, loan monitoring, loan recovery, and financial management. 27
These weaknesses constrain APP implementation and financial sector development. The Bank will
also actively support efforts to develop an institutional and policy environment to improve corporate
governance and legal regulatory functions of prudential agencies including the Nepal Rastra Bank
(the central bank) in the financial sector to enhance resource mobilization and private sector
development. Interventions to facilitate the delivery of rural savings and credit institutions including
microfinance institutions such as the five regional development banks and the new apex
institutions of rural microfinance will be consistent with this framework. Efforts in the financial sector
reforms pursued by the World Bank and IMF will be complemented.
e.
56.
The key focus will be on promoting private sector investments in major roads and
hydropower projects. Adequate provision of O&M for existing roads and facilities continue to the
key policy and institutional agenda. In particular, the Bank will work with the Government to
formulate a well-defined institutional, policy, and legal framework for private sector participation in
hydropower development, and in developing modalities for effective public/private partnership.
While the Bank will adopt a flexible approach to promoting private investment, assistance will be
considered only where interventions are consistent with a coherent water resources policy for
developing water supply, irrigation, and hydropower, with appropriate environmental safeguards.
The current regulatory framework is particularly weak in providing incentives for private sector
________________________
27
Postevaluation Office. 1998. Loan NEP(SF) 831: Fifth Agriculture Credit. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
17
investment in export-oriented power development. Bank interventions will be planned in the
broader context of efforts to develop subregional cooperation, particularly in developing the road
network to enhance linkages to trade and market opportunities.
2.
Human Development
57.
Accelerated improvements in human development are critical in achieving sustainable
poverty reduction, and greater social stability. They are also critical for accelerating growth in labor
productivity, reducing population growth, and efficient and sustainable investment. Sustained
improvements in human development are constrained by weak institutional capabilities and the
limited availability of public resources, the traditional source of investment in the social sectors.
Unless necessary policy and institutional measures to ensure effectiveness of the delivery
mechanism and sustainability of sector investments are undertaken, increased investments will
have limited impacts on human development and will increase future liabilities with higher O&M
costs. Although there have been good results in using community and local groups to formulate
and implement subprojects, substantive improvements in human development will require
strengthening of the institutional capability to deliver and sustain investments. Greater efforts are
required to encourage private sector participation in the delivery of social services.
58.
Given the overall goal of poverty reduction, the major geographical focus of Bank
assistance will be the rural areas. Community groups must be the primary targets in planning and
delivering assistance for human development, but there is also a need to support policy and
institution building at the national level. The Bank will support community initiatives in the rural
areas to develop water supply facilities that will be maintained by local communities or private
enterprises. The Bank will also look for opportunities to support the development of other social
services in local communities, including literacy and skills training. Efforts will be made to link the
identification and planning of such services with the implementation of other community projects,
such as water supply projects. This will allow the Bank to build on past investments that have
proven to be effective in meeting community needs and in developing good working relationships
with community groups. Support to community initiatives will focus on women's groups as
experience has shown that this approach generates more sustainable results.
a.
Education
59.
A basic constraint to rural development is the poor status of basic education and high rates
of adult illiteracy in the rural areas. Literacy and school enrollment rates are particularly low among
women. This makes it more difficult to mobilize and coordinate community groups, to transfer new
ideas and technologies, and to develop the capacity to initiate local development activities.
Improvements in basic education have the potential to generate substantive development impact at
all levels. The Bank will support institutional and policy reforms and development of a sectorwide
strategic framework to address the major policy and institutional constraints to effective delivery of
basic education services.
60.
Bank assistance to the education sector will be guided by the Banks sector strategy study28
and will focus on the Government priority for basic education, which comprises primary and lower
secondary education. While access to primary education (grades 1 to 5) has improved
dramatically, the efficiency of primary education is low, with high repetition and dropout rates.
There are considerable disparities in access by gender and by geographic location. The quality of
education needs to be improved through teacher training, curriculum development, and better
school management, maintenance, and supervision. In line with the Governments decentralization
policy, the Bank will support the delegation of management responsibilities to the local level, so
________________________
28
TA No. 2421-NEP: Education and Health Sector Strategy Study, for $345,000, approved on 13 October 1995.
18
that local communities become responsible and accountable for resource mobilization and O&M of
school facilities. Experience has shown that this will make primary education more responsive to
local conditions and needs.
61.
As part of basic education subsequent to completion of the primary level, Bank investment
will also be made to the lower secondary education (grade 6 to 8). Banks interventions will depend
on the progress in providing adequate O&M for completed facilities and will aim to strengthen
institutional development and quality of service delivery in the sector, as well as expand and
upgrade physical facilities, teaching materials, and teachers training.
62.
Given the high primary school dropout and high adult (especially women) illiteracy rates, the
expansion of nonformal education (NFE) is essential. NFE is effective in providing other life-related
knowledge and basic skills. The Government has taken initial steps to facilitate and coordinate NFE
by forming a National Council for NFE, and establishing district NFE committees under each district
development committee (DDC). There is still a need to improve the quality of public and private
partnership. Bank assistance for NFE will include (i) developing a long-term policy and strategy
framework for NFE; (ii) institutional building to strengthen national, regional, and district coordination
and implementation; (iii) quality control; and (iv) aid agency coordination to mobilize financing.
b.
Health
63.
Given that weak institutional capacity and governance are the major bottlenecks in the
health sector, Bank assistance will focus on addressing structural and management issues
(footnote 28). The Ministry of Health (MOH) issued its Second Long-Term Health Plan (1997-2017)
in April 1997. The plan gives priority to providing cost-effective but high-quality interventions,
including health prevention and awareness, on a needs basis. This is to be done using
decentralized management and community participation. Major emphasis will be on developing an
appropriate public-private mix in providing and financing health services including family planning.
Past priorities had been on improving access by adding new facilities. Some 40 percent of past
Government expenditure on the health sector were spent on a few hospitals in Kathmandu, leaving
inadequate funds for providing basic primary health care services.
64.
While MOH has developed an appropriate policy framework to address the abovementioned constraints, more work needs to be done to improve public health sector performance,
allocation efficiency, management, and quality of care, and to increase the coverage of the most
cost-effective interventions. Bank assistance will closely coordinate with that of other aid agencies
and will be limited to (i) defining the roles and responsibilities of government (central and local levels),
private sector, and NGOs in the sector; (ii) developing district and village-level health services with
increased autonomy and authority; (iii) enhancing the management of district hospitals, primary health
care centers and subcenters, personnel, and logistics; (iv) delineating responsibilities for curative and
preventive/promotive services; and (v) promoting a public -private mix in health sector financing.
c.
65.
Large gender disparities in levels of human development have emerged mainly from biases
in the social norms. The reform and strengthening of education services will be critical to long-term
changes in the social norms. More immediate results can be achieved by increased investments in
projects that particularly benefit women and children. Access to safe water has demonstrated an
immediate and substantial impact on women and children in terms of time saved in fetching water
and looking after sick family members suffering from waterborne diseases. It has given women
more time to participate in development and income-generating activities, and improved the
prospects for children to remain in school.
19
66.
Public sector financing will be extended to develop community-based water supply projects
in rural areas, and to restructure the provision of urban water supply services through strong
public-private partnership under the proposed Secondary Towns Water Supply and Melamchi
Water Supply Projects respectively. Both initiatives require continued Government commitment to
fundamental changes in existing institutional arrangements, including a major restructuring of the
Nepal Water Supply Corporation. Progress in implementing these reforms is crucial to sustaining
future sector investments.
3.
Environment
67.
The Bank will support environmental education to improve public awareness of the
opportunities for participating in environmental management. There is good potential for positive
synergies in environmental management and human development, and efforts to promote wider
involvement of the private sector, local communities, NGOs, and the general public are urgently
needed. The Bank will support the development of alliances and business cooperation between the
general public, private sector, and central and local governments to deliver environmental
management services in both rural and urban areas. The Bank will pursue further involvement in
solid waste management and sanitation in collaboration with local communities and the private
sector; air and water pollution monitoring in cooperation with NGOs; and introduction of policy
measures and economic instruments for better environmental management in tourism, renewable
energy, energy conservation, and urban development.
a.
Environment Improvement
68.
There is an urgent need to address urban environment issues. Protection of the
environment is particularly critical to sustainable economic development in Nepal (see appendix 2).
All major economic sectors, and potential areas of economic growth including agriculture,
hydropower, and particularly tourism depend directly on the sustainable management of natural
resources. Poor air pollution controls and waste management in urban and other tourist areas are
adversely affecting the health of the people and the potential for tourism development. Given the
weak government institutions, it is critical to have a more direct involvement of community groups
and the private sector in resolving these issues. Future assistance will depend on progress in the
institutional development of the Kathmandu Metropolitan City to establish effective delivery
mechanisms for urban services in a sustainable manner and the Nepal Tourism Board to develop
public and private partnership in environmental management to enhance rural tourism.
b.
69.
Natural resources need to be managed in a more sustainable manner. Air, water, and soil
pollution from industrial and agricultural activities need to be reduced. Forest encroachment, poor
watershed management, and increasing agricultural cultivation in marginal areas represent major
threats to the sustainable development of agriculture, forestry, and livestock, and to future
utilization of the country's considerable water resources. Poor natural resource management is
also a threat to rural tourism, which has tremendous potential to increase rural employment and
reduce poverty. Developing and implementing the institutional and policy reforms needed to
promote private sector participation in investments to protect and improve the environment, and
providing environmental management services are key priorities.
70.
The Bank will complement the work of other aid agencies in the forestry sector through
watershed rehabilitation using ecosystems approaches and collaborative links between the
Government, local community groups, and specialist NGOs. The institutional arrangement and
capabilities of the executing agencies will need to be thoroughly analyzed and, if necessary,
20
restructured to support further expansion of the cooperation between the Government and the
private sector in further promoting community-level management of forestry and watershed
development activities.
E.
71.
In line with the emphasis of the Ninth Plan on elimination of gender inequality, the Bank
strategy takes a holistic approach to systematically addressing key constraints at the policy,
institution, sector, and project levels. The gender strategy for Nepal (see appendix 3) includes (i)
assistance to policy support, capacity building, and awareness raising and (ii) gender analysis of
proposed projects.
72.
Bank assistance will emphasize women empowerment in the development process,
consistent with the Banks policy on gender and development.29 The Bank has appointed a gender
and development specialist at the Banks Nepal Resident Mission (NRM) to further enhance these
efforts in the field. Future interventions will aim at addressing multiple constraints women face
particularly limited access to and control over productive resources, low educational attainment,
and low social and economic status. Interventions will be planned and formulated to enhance
economic opportunities and status of women, for example in rural microfinance, nonformal
education, and water supply and sanitation projects.
73.
Mainstreaming of gender issues and gender sensitization need to be promoted at all levels.
Moreover, empowerment at the stakeholder level will be the focus of the new strategy. Women can
be empowered when economic opportunities are preceded by social mobilization/preparation,
often with literacy programs. Positive group dynamics have been noted in a number of water
supply projects where drinking water groups were formed. These projects have added advantage
of lessening womens work burden and helping to reduce morbidity and mortality.
F.
Regional Cooperation
74.
The Bank will build on past success in developing bilateral partnerships to further enhance
growth potential through regional cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal. The
Bank aims to address constraints identified under past regional cooperation initiatives and to
continue consultations with governments and other stakeholders on the modalities for pursuing
economic cooperation under the South Asia Growth Quadrangle initiative. The Bank will continue
to involve Nepal in regional technical assistance activities to disseminate information about
regional best practices, particularly in relation to governance, institutional development, poverty
reduction, financing and provision of social services, and private sector development. Potential
areas of cooperation include multi-modal transport and communication, energy (particularly
hydropower development), trade and investment facilitation and promotion, natural resource
utilization and environmental management, and tourism.
75.
The establishment of better road network in the region will improve the access to markets
and trade opportunities including Banks recent assistance in providing support for the upgrading of
the north-south transport corridor in West Bengal. Further support is being envisaged through a TA
for inland waterway in West Bengal. The Bank is also planning a regional technical assistance to
examine the potential of nontradable and service sectors for broadening the subregional initiatives
among South Asian countries. Development of Mahakali basin will also be a potential area of
cooperation between governments of India and Nepal in water resources management. The Bank
is working closely with the Chambers of Commerce and Industries of the four countries to
strengthen their advocacy role in subregional cooperation and to promote closer cooperation
________________________
29
Asian Development Bank. 1998. Policy on Gender and Development. Manila: ADB.
21
among the private sectors groups in these countries. Further assistance will be planned to develop
the policy and institutional framework needed to realize potential benefits from regional cooperation
with project-level initiatives involving bilateral or trilateral linkages.
G.
Governance
76.
The Bank will support initiatives to implement decentralization through policy and
institutional measures to strengthen the local administrations including village development
committees and district development committees, which will plan and implement development
activities to ensure ownership and better serve local needs. Working with other development
partners, the Bank will support Government efforts to implement the institutional development
strategies endorsed by the 1992 Administrative Reform Commission and the Ninth Plan. The
formulation and implementation of an action plan for civil service reform is a key priority of the
Government. Issues to be addressed include reduction in the number of ministries (and
nonessential staff), improved remuneration, effective human resource planning, performance
planning, reducing staff turnover, and better enforcement of financial and other regulations. The
Bank will also support improvements in tax administration, and corporate and financial governance,
including regulatory and institutional reforms aimed at encouraging increased competition and
higher standards in accountancy, audit, and legal services. Training and advisory services will be
provided to improve (i) enforcement in key regulatory agencies, (ii) record keeping, and (iii)
interdepartmental coordination so as to increase investment efficiency, reduce investor risk, and
better protect individual rights.
77.
Political interference in the civil service, reflected in the unusually high rates of professional
staff turnover, is a particular concern as it affects staff morale and further weakens the institutional
capabilities of the civil service, thereby directly reducing the effectiveness of Bank assistance.
Progress in addressing this issue will be closely monitored during strategy implementation. Bank
support will also depend on tangible progress in the timely publication of performance and
expenditure reports by government agencies and state enterprises, and in achieving greater
transparency and competition in national procurement and bidding procedures based on the
Banks guidelines and policies on anticorruption (footnote 22).
H.
78.
Private sector development is a key Government objective outlined in the Ninth Plan. The
Government aims to develop the institutional framework as well as infrastructure such as energy,
telecommunications and transport to encourage private sector investment. Despite its past efforts,
private sector growth remains limited as it requires necessary reforms in good governance and
institutional development as well as improvements in social and physical infrastructure, including
human resources, roads and power.
79.
Among reforms in good governance and institutional framework that sustained private
sector growth include development of credible systems for enforcing contracts and other property
rights, transparent and credible accounting and financial reporting systems, and an effective
regulatory and supervisory system for good governance in the financial sector. Past failures to
develop effective corporate governance practices has undermined company performance and
private sector credibility, with negative consequences in terms of the availability and costs of
financing.
80.
The Bank's strategy for enhancing private sector development involves twofold approach:
(i) the promotion of an enabling environment for private sector activities such as the enhancement
of corporate and financial governance through the public sector window, and (ii) direct investment
22
in private sector companies in such forms as loan and equity through the private sector window.
The Bank will support the Government's efforts in establishing transparent policies and basic
mechanisms for corporate and financial governance, which are most essential for sustained private
sector development. The Bank's direct investments in private sector companies will be considered
for those projects that meet certain investment criteria such as commercial viability, catalytic effect
and development impact. Investments that not only meet these criteria but also supplement and
contribute to the promotion of an enabling policy environment will be given priority in view of
promoting public and private partnerships.
I.
81.
The community of aid agencies increasingly recognizes that good governance and
institutional reforms are the most immediate and crucial priorities in ensuring better use of external
assistance. While aid agencies coordination has improved over time, it is mainly confined to
project-level activities to avoid duplication of effort. Efforts to adopt a coordinated approach to
sector development, including policy formulation and institutional development, have been
inadequate. The APP provides a positive model in formulating a long-term perspective plan that
involves all major stakeholders including the funding community. To maximize the impact of
external resources, further collaboration and cooperation not just coordination in economic
and sector work, policy formulation, institution analysis, and improvement are necessary. Aid
agencies should agree on a development framework, which lays out the requirements for policy
and institutional reforms and resource requirements for each sector, and to plan their interventions
accordingly. Improved cooperation will be particularly important in power development, water
resource management, and the delivery of health and education services.
V.
A.
82.
While the strong emphasis on policy and institutional reform in the Bank's strategy may
suggest a need for program lending, past Bank experience with this modality in Nepal has not
been encouraging. The Bank and the Government have tended to focus on the quick-disbursing
feature of these loans with an apparent lack of ownership and realistic timeframe of the reforms
that the program was intended to support. As a result, these agreed-upon reforms were often not
implemented or properly enforced. Any additional quick-disbursing program assistance will be
jointly formulated with the Government. Important elements of such assistance would include
demonstrated Government and community commitment and stakeholder support to the reform
measures, while institutional arrangements for effective implementation need to be carefully
assessed and agreed upon. In this regard, the Bank needs to closely monitor and learn from
experience in implementing the APP and the ongoing agriculture program loan (footnote 26).
83.
Given the critical importance of policy and institutional constraints to development, a sector
approach utilizing the cluster TA modalities will figure more intensively in future Bank operations.
This modality is being planned for the environment sector. The Bank must recognize that major
efforts in consensus building are needed to achieve a real sense of ownership, and that longer
term support will produce meaningful change. In this regard, smaller and simpler projects that are
commensurate with the institutional capabilities and at the same time support the building block
approach in generating a multiplier effect from previous development efforts may be more
appropriate.
23
84.
In recent years, the Banks NRM has been instrumental in improving project performance
and facilitating project administration. The monthly project managers meeting30 organized by NRM
since 1995 has been most useful to address project implementation bottlenecks at an early stage.
NRM has also actively assisted in involving all key stakeholders in program identification,
formulation, implementation, and evaluating the long-term development impacts of Bank
investments. This process has proved to be effective and well appreciated by all stakeholders.
However, it is not possible for NRM to expand its current role towards this end without increasing
its staff and financial resources.
1.
Technical Assistance
85.
The Bank will give greater emphasis to (i) improving the quality of project design and
formulation by including strong local participation and support, and (ii) assessing whether the
institutional and policy environment is conducive to private sector development and sustained
development. Specific requirements for participatory approaches in both design and
implementation, and for detailed analysis of institutional development needs would be included in
the project preparatory stage. Extended advisory TA preceding project preparation can be
important in improving project quality. More importantly, the Bank will need to allocate greater staff
resources to effectively formulate, monitor, and evaluate projects in Nepal.
86.
The emphasis in the strategy on sector development modalities implies a more critically
important role for longer term advisory and operational TA in sectors and areas where the Bank
plans to play a leading role in policy dialogue and institutional reform. Presently, the areas include
agriculture and rural development, rural finance, water supply and sanitation, power, private sector
development, and civil service reform.
87.
Further development of economic linkages with neighboring countries will be an integral
component of Bank support. The Bank will continue to take a proactive role in promoting
subregional economic cooperation in South Asia, including the provision of regional TA to facilitate
research and dialogue. Nepal can learn from the development experiences and best practices of
other countries in South and East Asia. The Bank will continue to look for opportunities to include
Nepal in relevant regional TA activities so that relevant best practices can be imparted to the
appropriate authorities. Activities related to governance, institutional development, poverty
reduction, financing and provision of social services, and private sector development will be
particularly relevant to Nepal.
2.
Lending Scenarios
88.
The Banks IPFs for Nepal have been based on the availability of Asian Development Fund
(ADF) resources, the needs of the country, and its absorptive capacity. As the Bank emerges from
a project-financing institution to a full-fledged development institution, Bank assistance will be
result-oriented and ensure that the desired development impact will be generated and sustained. In
line with the Banks policy on ADF allocation, 31 future lending to Nepal will be linked to progress in
addressing the major country performance issues that will improve the environment for both private
and public investments. This is to ensure future levels of Bank investments will be commensurate
with the necessary development of the policy and institutional environment of the country to
generate and sustain the desired development impact. Five key areas have been identified and
performance standards will be used for further monitoring and evaluation of achievements.
________________________
30
31
The annual project manager award initiated by NRM since 1997 has added incentive and morale for the project
managers of Bank-assisted projects.
Asian Development Bank. 1998. The Allocation of ADF Resource Among DMCs. Manila: ADB.
24
89.
Achieving a sustainable development impact from future Bank assistance will require
tangible progress in (i) human development, (ii) fiscal performance, (iii) civil service reform, (iv)
improving governance, and (v) portfolio performance. These key areas are essential to develop
effective institutions in order to sustain desired development impact. Annual IPF will be guided by
the progress and achievement in these areas.
(i)
(ii)
Fiscal performance. Fiscal discipline is the core of public sector and macroeconomic
management. There should be no increase in regular expenditures as a ratio of
GDP except as justified by revenue performance and improvement of domestic
fiscal revenue to at least 11 percent of GDP. Good performance requires sustained
progress in improving fiscal revenue to GDP ratio beyond 11 percent consistent with
a manageable fiscal deficit.
(iii)
Civil service reform. Adopting an action plan for civil service reform; good
performance requires satisfactory progress in implementing the action plan.
(iv)
(v)
90.
Average performance in these areas would be consistent with an annual IPF in the range of
$70-80 million at the current level of ADF availability. 32 Poor performance would result in a lower
IPF. Good performance would indicate achievement of a policy and institutional environment
conducive to the generation and sustainability of the desired development impact from higher Bank
investment. Under this circumstance, the Bank will consider favorably of raising the current IPF.
Actual lending levels will depend on meeting the criteria for intervention and sector involvement
noted in paras. 45-47.
3.
91.
The Bank will continue to cooperate with the World Bank and IMF in supporting sound
macroeconomic management through regular public expenditure reviews and Article IV
consultations (see appendix 4). Inappropriate project selection and design can be avoided through
more thorough and vigorous economic and sector work. The new strategy emphasizes sector
approach and long-term institutional development. This requires the Bank to devote more
resources to formulate and monitor the sector development plans, which identify the policy,
institution, and investment requirements and respective performance standards to achieve short-,
medium-, and long-term objectives.
________________________
32
Performance-based lending is currently being operationalized for Bankwide application. Its application to Nepal will be
revisited as necessary.
25
92.
Immediate priorities for sector work to effectively implement the new strategy include efforts
to develop effective institutions. These are (i) institutional support to decentralization; (ii) civil
service and public administration reform; (iii) institutional support to improve corporate governance,
(iv) assessment of progress and institutional requirements in implementing the APP. Bank
assistance is also needed to support institutional and policy analysis aimed at improving efficiency
of service delivery for (i) road; (ii) power; (iii) basic education including lower secondary; (iv) health;
(v) water supply and sanitation; (vi) urban services; and (vii) environmental management including
tourism with emphasis in promoting private sector participation or public and private partnership.
These efforts will require working more closely with all stakeholders not just executing agencies
to build support for the findings, recommendations, and implementation.
93.
The Bank will cooperate closely with all interested aid agencies in undertaking sector work
so as to assist in developing consistent approaches, particularly aimed at increasing private sector
investment. The Bank will also need to give priority to making staff available to participate in and
contribute to sector policy and planning initiatives led by other aid agencies.
4.
94.
In addition to lending and TA through the public sector window, the Bank will provide direct
assistance to private sector companies in the form of loan, equity, co-financing and guarantee
through the private sector window (see also para. 80). Such assistance will be provided to (i)
financial sector; (ii) social and industrial infrastructure projects; and (iii) in limited cases, industrial,
tourism and other sectors that will meet such criteria as commercial viability, catalytic effect and
development impact. The Bank has so far assisted four private sector projects: two projects in
manufacturing, one in hotel and one in hydropower sector. Future opportunities will be actively but
carefully explored, particularly in view of promoting public-private partnership where specific project
opportunities arise from regulatory and sector reforms assisted by the Bank's public sector
operations. With the country's abundant resources in hydropower, relatively a
l rge investment
requirements for the sector, and the ratification of the Mahakali Treaty with India, the power sector
may offer opportunities for Bank assistance to the private sector.
5.
95.
Promising results have been shown in previous Bank projects involving NGOs and
community groups in project implementation. Increasing cooperation and consultation with local
groups are also potentially important in improving the effectiveness of project identification and
design activities. However, it is also important to recognize the limited capacity and capabilities of
local groups. A long gestation period may be necessary for these groups to be viable and
sustainable. Bank policy documents 33 specify modalities for further collaboration with NGOs in
Bank operations, including programming, country-level work, lending and TA activities, and policy
and institutional development. These policies are consistent with the Governments approach to
implementing the Ninth Plan. The Ministry of Agriculture recently issued some policy guidelines to
encourage cooperation with local groups.
B.
96.
The formulation of the new country strategy has benefited from consultations with the
Government and other stakeholders both national and local levels in the country as well as within
the Bank. The participatory process will continue during its implementation, including regular
monitoring and assessment of its implementation to support the annual country programming
________________________
33
Asian Development Bank. 1998. Cooperation between the Asian Development Bank and Nongovernment
Organizations. Manila: ADB.
26
exercises to ensure that future Bank assistance is appropriate and effective. Successful
implementation of this strategy will require more effective Bank monitoring and supervision of
ongoing projects to ensure that the desired development impact is generated and sustained
including proper enforcement of loan convenants. The Bank will need to commit more staff
resources to review missions to allow (i) necessary measures to ensure compliance of loan
convenants and (ii) regular assessment of the development impact of projects through direct
consultations with the intended project beneficiaries.
97.
A committee made up of representatives from the Ministry of Finance, National Planning
Commission, Financial Comptroller General Office, Ministry of General Administration, and the
Bank will review the performance in the five areas discussed in paras. 89-90. The committee will
meet three times a year July, November, and March to coincide with the annual government
budget release, the Banks country portfolio review, and country programming exercise,
respectively. An annual progress report will summarize the achievement and progress in each
area. The progress reports will be prepared jointly by the Bank and the Government and will form
the basis for strengthening the development partnership in future Bank operations in the country.
The Banks NRM will help to coordinate these efforts. Accordingly, future assistance will be
realigned during the Banks annual country programming exercise to make it commensurate with
the progress and achievement in the key areas as well as the respective sectors performance. A
progress report on the implementation of the strategy will be part of the annual Country Assistance
Plan (CAP), which summarizes the Banks three-year rolling plan of lending and TA program in
Nepal.
C.
Risks
98.
Risks affecting the successful implementation of the new strategy include internal and
external risks. Internal risks include (i) continued political instability which diverts resources and
attention to focus on development priorities and agenda and (ii) lack of political commitment to
undertake necessary reform measures to develop appropriate policy and institutional environment
to ensure effective private and public investments. An important factor contributing to the recent
deterioration in economic performance has been the high level of political instability. This has had
adverse impacts on civil service staff turnover and morale, on policy consistency, and on
commitment to addressing critical development constraints. The current strategy is based on a
scenario of only marginal improvement in political stability during the course of the strategy. The
strategy recognizes that progress in institutional and policy reform, especially civil service reform,
can be slow in an unstable political environment. This assumption needs to be reflected in the
design of interventions to support change. It is also another reason for the relatively strong focus
on working through community groups, which are generally less politicized and more accountable
to local stakeholders. The newly elected majority government in May 1999 may provide better
prospects for political stability. More substantive improvements in political and social stability would
increase the probability of success in addressing key policy and institutional reform, and could
increase the opportunities for the Bank to broaden the scope of assistance.
99.
There are growing concerns about possible social instability, as the credibility of formal
institutions has diminished in the view of large segments of the population. In particular, there is a
growing perception of corruption in the administration, and concerns that the economic benefits of
the limited progress in development are not being distributed equitably. This disquiet is reflected in
the growing number of districts where there has been increasingly violent conflicts between the
dissidents and the establishment. The strategy has been designed to directly address inequities
with a focus on human and rural development through community groups, and assumes gradual
improvements in social stability. If social instability increases, the Bank will need to review the
continuing relevance of the strategy. The NRM plays an important role in monitoring the situation.
27
100. The Government's decentralization program is a welcome initiative for many reasons,
including its potential impact in increasing accountability and equity in development and the
potential improvements in investment efficiency and sustainability from a decentralized approach.
However, institutions like district development committees and village development committees
have yet to demonstrate their capacity in delivering investments, and it is yet to be proven that the
mechanisms are in place to ensure their accountability. While the Bank remains committed to
supporting the strengthening of local government institutions, there is a real risk that a too rapid
buildup in the resources channeled through these institutions could increase the probability of
failure. The Bank should continue to monitor the progress in developing local capacity and, if it is
demonstrated that those institutions can effectively deliver increased levels of development
assistance, the Bank may need to consider directing more resources through them.
101. The external risk relating to the impact of Asian financial crisis and international downturn is
considered minor relative to the internal risks discussed above. Nepal has so far been relatively
unaffected by the Asian financial crisis and international economic downturn although this may
have dampened the impact of the Visit Nepal 1998 campaign. Nepal's strongest economic links are
with India, which has recently experienced slower growth compared to early 1990s but still
maintained almost 6 percent annual output growth. Recent international trade and investment
developments could contribute to a slowing of economic growth in India, with negative implications
for Nepal's economy, but these external risks are considered minor relative to the internal risks. At
a macro level, the key risk is the possibility of further deterioration in budget revenue collection and
increase in strain of the fiscal performanc e. Political instability exacerbates this risk and also
increases the risk that limited public expenditure resources will be allocated to suboptimal activities
for political reasons. This could have negative implications for the availability of counterpart
resources for Bank-financed interventions. The Bank will continue to work closely and cooperate
with the World Bank and IMF in supporting measures to improve fiscal performance and public
expenditure management.
102. A key risk, however, lies within the Bank. The Bank needs to commit sufficient staff to make
the strategy operational. The strategy emphasizes participatory approaches at all stages of the
project cycle and recognizes that much greater emphasis needs to be given to institutional
development. Both institution building and participatory processes are time-consuming. Difficult
topography and a limited transport network will require relatively more time for domestic travel to
rural areas. The new strategy therefore requires Banks commitment to allocate greater staff and
time resources including those to NRM to effectively formulate, supervise, monitor, review, and
evaluate assistance in Nepal.
Appendix 2, page 1
SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS IN NEPAL
A.
1.
The countrys natural resource base is under increasing pressure. High population
growth, poverty, and environmental problems are all negatively linked to the same degradation
process perpetuated by slow economic growth. Soil erosion, deforestation, degradation of the
natural ecosystem and its biodiversity, together with air and water pollution, and lack of
sanitation and solid waste disposal in urban areas are among Nepals major environment
problems. The poor rely on exploitation of natural resources for their survival, e.g., cultivation of
marginal lands and uncontrolled fuelwood collection. This increasing pressure on natural
resources, coupled with rapid population growth, leads to further decline in labor and soil
productivity in agriculture, and is the main factor contributing to poverty and environmental
degradation. To achieve sustainable development and effectively preserve its natural resource
base, the country has to break this vicious cycle by effectively addressing poverty, high
population growth, and ecological imbalances in both rural and urban areas.
B.
2.
Recognizing the crucial importance of proper environmental management and effective
implementation of the existing environmental policy and legal framework, the Government has
in recent years taken important steps toward a more systematic approach. Policies to protect
the environment were included in the Seventh and the Eighth Development Plan; the National
Conservation Strategy (NCS) was prepared in 1989 and the Nepal Environmental Policy and
Action Plan (NEPAP) in 1993. More recently, a comprehensive process to establish and
operationalize an environmental impact assessment (EIA) system was undertaken. The
Environment Protection Council (EPC) was created in 1993, and the Ministry of Population and
Environment (MOPE) was established in September 1995. The Environment Protection Act was
approved at the beginning of 1997 and, more recently, the Cabinet enacted the Environment
Protection Regulations. These important legislative developments are crucial institutional steps
toward improved enforcement and overall effective implementation of environmental policies.
Environmental management in Nepal has reached a crucial point and two factors will play a
crucial role in the future: (i) the level of commitment and ownership at the highest institutional
and political levels; and (ii) the degree to which continued, coordinated, and streamlined
external assistance will be able to effectively assist the country in achieving its main
environmental objectives.
C.
3.
Deforestation and soil erosion have to be addressed through practical land use
management, rehabilitation of degraded lands and environmental guidelines that are
implemented effectively. At the same time, employment opportunities in nonagriculture sectors
should be increased and alternative energy sources developed.
4.
When considering various proposals and feasibility studies for water resources
management, the country must follow appropriate decision-making approaches based on (i)
integrated resource planning and demand-side management, (ii) environmental strategic
planning at the basin level and project EIA, as well as (iii) social assessment and community
participation. While the ratification of the Mahakali treaty in September 1996 has given Nepal
new opportunities for water resource development, large-scale hydropower generation projects
for export will be subject to the same consideration. Demand-side management, removal of
Appendix 2, page 2
subsidies and price controls, fuel substitution, and afforestation are the key measures to help in
the transition to another energy source and reduce soil erosion.
5.
With regard to the management of forests and protected areas, initial successes in
community forestry in the hill areas need to be replicated in the terai where these programs
have not been supported on a significant scale. Environmental sustainability in forestry calls for
the development of home gardens, woodslots, and other agroforestry systems as well as forest
plantations to meet the peoples basic needs and to supply individual wood, with the support of
the empowered forestry institutions and in partnership with the private sector and
nongovernment agencies (NGOs). National parks and wildlife conservation will be effective in
preserving genetic resources and biodiversity. Ecotourism in protected areas is substantial and
should be seriously pursued, together with establishing a trust fund for biodiversity conservation.
In general, programs needs to contribute more to the welfare of local communities and
indigenous groups.
6.
Specific attention needs to be given to the formulation and implementation of urban and
regional development strategies. Each strategy will identify the overall settlement system, then
guide sectoral policies, particularly in the context of site selection for industries that contribute to
water or air pollution. The broad range of service facilities (not only health care and education,
but also public advisory services, community centers, markets) and municipal infrastructure
(most importantly water, sanitation, waste management, electricity, and traffic) will be the key
issues to address in urban development.
7.
The strategic framework should have sector directions as well: the central challenge in
the agriculture sector is to accelerate agricultural growth while avoiding natural resources
degradation and polluting processes. With respect to industrial pollution, misinterpretation of
legislation such as the Environment Protection Act and the Environment Protection Rules must
be corrected. A range of tourism practices has to be adjusted to support sustainable tourism.
8.
In respect to institutional strengthening, MOPE should be empowered to coordinate with
the economic development actors within and outside Nepal and have a cell or unit that reviews
existing policies, revises concepts and tools, conducts action research, and liaise with other
policy-making bodies within the country. The unit should also keep environment-related
information; analyze the activities of NGOs, international NGOs and the private sector; and
incorporate this information into the policy and planning processes of MOPE and other relevant
institutions. MOPE also should promote peoples participation in its activities and devolve
decision-making power and resources to the local level.
Appendix 3, page 1
GENDER STRATEGY FOR NEPAL
A.
1.
Women in Nepal face multiple constraints. Because Nepal is one of the least developed
countries of the world, the majority of the population survive through low-productivity agriculture
requiring long hours of work to meet the family needs. A substantial proportion of women in
Nepal (40 percent) are economically active; most of them are employed in agriculture. Rural
womens workload is especially heavy due to household drudgeries, such as fetching water and
collecting fuelwood. Culturally, marriage is seen as the best socially acceptable option for
women to gain access to property and land, which is inherited patrilineally. The legal provisions
that deny married daughters the right to inherit parental property reinforce that concept.
2.
Because of their low levels of educational attainment and lack of skills, women in Nepal
work primarily as unpaid family workers or occupy low-level, low-paying jobs under often
hazardous working conditions in the formal sector. Women entrepreneurs likewise face severe
problems in access to credit and marketing networks, technology, and risk-taking capacity, which
lead to low income and progressive loss of proprietorship in the informal sector. The consequent
problem to be noted is the declining economic activity rate among urban women, probably
signaling the "domestication of women."
3.
The degree of womens access to resources and services varies, depending on
geographical, cultural, and ethnic settings. Women in the high mountains and remote hills and
from economically disadvantaged groups face greater accessibility problems than women in the
better-off households, urban areas and Terai plains in general. Socioculturally, Tibeto-Burman
communities, populating mostly the midhills and mountains, are less constrained in mobility and
other social or economic options. In the Indo-Aryan groups, women traditionally have fewer
options. In Terai communities and the Mid-Western and Far-Western Development Regions, the
social exclusion of women is more severe.
4.
Women's representation in the political and administrative decision-making positions has
been minimal. In the political arena, the condition has improved significantly at the grassroots
level, as all contesting parties to the elections are now required to have at least one woman
candidate among the five ward member contestants. At least one woman must be nominated to
the village development committee and district development committee executive committees
and municipality boards. Womens representation in government administration is increasing
only slowly: women account for about 5 percent in the gazetted (officer)-level positions.
B.
5.
Integration of gender issues in the country operation strategy derives from a new
strategic emphasis on womens empowerment within the development process, stipulated in the
Banks policy on gender and development.1 Strategic emphasis is widened to include womens
rights, womens role as active participants and agents in development, and their role as actors
with a specific agenda for development. A gender-focused approach seeks to redress gender
inequity by facilitating strategic, broad-based, multifaceted solutions to gender inequality.
6.
In line with the thrust of that Bank policy, the gender strategy for Nepal will encompass
these elements: (i) assist in policy support, capacity building, and awareness raising; (ii)
1
Appendix 3, page 2
facilitate gender analysis of proposed projects; and (iii) assist to implement commitments made
at the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women. In particular, as the Governments
Ninth Five-Year Plan places emphasis on mainstreaming, empowerment, and elimination of
gender inequality, the strategy takes a holistic approach to address key constraints
systematically at the policy, institution, sector/program, and project levels.
C.
7.
The Government has developed a well-meant policy framework and has committed itself
to the follow-up actions based on pledges made at the Beijing Conference (the National Action
Plan for Women, 1997). Therefore, the primary focus of the Banks policy support assistance is
to operationalize and institutionalize these policy agenda. For instance, the Ninth Plan Approach
Paper stipulates that all laws discriminatory to women will be reviewed and reformulated.
However, in a new bill pending in Parliament, the age limits for women to inherit property are
removed, but womens right to inherit will remain conditional on her marital status. Womens
access to common property (e.g., forests) is derived through her husband, the head of the
household. Marriage is the overwhelming factor in determining womens life options. The first
step then is for the Bank to ensure womens property rights through policy dialogue, and
promote policy and regulatory reforms (e.g., introduction of joint ownership) through appropriate
investment projects.
8.
Second, mainstreaming and gender sensitization need to be promoted at all levels and
entities. While the Government has long established womens cells or units in relevant ministries
(such as Agriculture, Education, Forest, Health, Home, Labor, and Water Resources, and
National Planning Commission), gender perspectives have not been fully integrated into the
mainstream operations of those ministries. Through capacity building and development of
adequate monitoring systems, sectoral interventions will be more systematic and the long-term
impact of these interventions on gender equality can be ensured.
9.
Third, empowerment at the stakeholder level will be promoted. It is revealed that women
can be empowered when economic inputs (e.g., credit) are preceded by social
mobilization/preparation, often with literacy programs. Group dynamics have been noted in a
number of water supply projects where drinking water groups are formed. These projects also
have a multiplier effect, on one hand directly lessening womens work burden and on the other
reducing morbidity and mortality. Development assistance involving all stakeholders (both
women and men) and increasing their accountability should be carefully identified, planned,
implemented, and followed up to maximize its effect.
10.
Fourth, increased attention will be paid to gender disparities in the cultural, ethnic, or
geographic settings. There is a sharp difference in access to resources and services among the
various populations. Explicit and well-conceived interventions are required. For instance,
covering the remote areas and rugged terrain is one means, and targeting specific groups (e.g.,
low-caste women) is another. In either case, assistance in raising awareness and building
capacity will be accompanied by investments. Reducing disparities and increasing equity will be
the major objective of project-level intervention.
35
Appendix 4
5.
Realignment of these priorities will be undertaken during the implementation of the new
strategy depending on the progress and commitment of the Government in pursuing necessary
sector reforms to develop effective institutions in these sectors and allow effective Bank
interventions in the future.
Strategic
Approach
Sectoral/
Subsectoral Focus*
Develop Effective
Institutions
Operational
Objectives
Rural
Development
Agriculture (1)
Ministry of Agriculture
Irrigation (2)
Rural
Roads (3)
Rural
Electrification (4)
Promote
Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Institutional Focus
Finance (5)
Roads (3)
Sustainable
Reduction
in Poverty
Enhance
Human
Development
Ministry of Education
Health (7)
Ministry of Health
Environment
Improvement (9)
Nepal Tourism Board
Natural
Resources
Management (10)
* (#) refers to the number of sectors that the Bank will consider its involvement.
Ministry of Finance
Basic
Education (6)
Water Supply
and Sanitation (8)
Infrastructure
Development
Power (4)
Policy Focus
Coordinating and planning capabilities to implement APP.
Sustainable removal of subsidies on fertilizer, irrigation,
food grain, and small credit.
Infrastructure
development
Government
Strategy
Agriculture Perspective Plan
(APP), which was adopted in
July 1995, identifies the
essential inputs to realize the
potential of agricultural
productivity to 5 percent per
annum growth. Policy and
institutional measures to meet
fertilizer demands through
sustainable removal of market
distortions including subsidies.
Coordinated or packaged
approach to investm ents in key
areas including:
(i) agricultural technology,
(ii) rural credit,
(iii) irrigation,
(iv) rural roads, and
(v) rural electrification.
Develop objective/transparent
criteria to prevent political
interference in selection of
subprojects
Basic education
Government
Strategy
Improve effectiveness of commercial
banking and rural finance to provide
financial services and resources in
both urban and rural areas to
support private sector development.
Government
Strategy
National Drinking Water Supply
Policy aims at achieving 100
percent access to safe drinking
water by the end of the Ninth FiveYear Development Plan, 2002.
Environment
improvement
Natural resources
management
KfW
NEA
MLD
NFC
NGOs
NWSC
SNV
USAID
Kreditanstalt fr Wiederaufbau
Nepal Electricity Authority
Ministry of Local Development
Nepal Food Corporation
nongovernment organization
Nepal Water Supply Corporation
Netherlands Development Organisation
United States Agency for International Development
Appendix 1, page 1
A.
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
205
218
219
233
217
8.2
3.5
5.3
4.0
1.9
Agriculture
7.6
(0.3)
4.4
4.1
1.1
Industry
9.0
4.0
8.3
3.5
0.2
Services
7.7
6.0
5.8
4.0
4.6
(percent of GDP)
B.
22.4
25.2
27.3
25.1
16.6
17.0
15.4
14.6
8.9
7.6
8.1
7.8
4.0
19.6
16.1
14.4
11.9
17.0
13.2
(percent of GDP)
D.
E.
Government Finance
1. Total Receipts
11.0
13.0
13.1
12.9
2. Expenditure
16.9
17.6
18.7
18.1
19.7
(5.8)
(4.6)
(5.6)
(5.1)
(6.4)
(16.2)
(21.0)
(22.0)
(25.3)
(20.9)
(5.6)
(7.8)
(11.7)
(9.4)
(8.8)
3.6
(9.7)
1.9
10.2
11.7
392
354
361
397
444
21.9
21.8
5.8
21.6
(12.6)
1,048
1,276
1,350
1,642
1,439
718
702
609
651
712
8.2
6.6
5.4
4.8
6.0
6.8
7.9
8.4
8.2
8.4
53.2
53.8
53.5
49.0
57.9
199
219
249
280
293
203
223
252
285
49.3
49.9
55.2
57.0
62.0
Balance of Payments
Memorandum Items:
Appendix 1, page 2
1990
Latest Year
16.30
18.10
23.0 (1997)
2.10
2.10
2.6 (1997)
6.30
n.a.
5.60
n.a.
5.0 (1996)
539 (1996)
152.00
45.00
45.00
48 (1981)
24 (1981)
107.00
54.00
53.00
55.00
40 (1991)
85 (1996)
56 (1995)
56 (1995)
57 (1995)
48 (1997)
75.00
47.00
25.00
12.00
103.00
77.00
31.00
18.00
110 (1995)
72 (1995-96)
37 (1995)
31 (1995-96)
- 70 (1989-95)
47 (1990-97)
POPULATION INDICATORS
Total Population (millions)
Annual Population Growth Rate (% change)a
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Total Fertility Rate (births per woman)
Maternal Mortality Rate (per hundred thousand live births)
d
Infant Mortality Rate (below 1 year; per '000 live births)
Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
Female
Male
Adult Literacy (%)
Primary School Enrollment (% of school age population)b
Female
Secondary School Enrollment (% of school age population)
Female
Child Malnutrition (% of under age 5)
Population Below Poverty Line (%)
Income Ratio of Highest 20% to Lowest 20%
4.3 (1984-85)
45 (1995-96)
5.9 (1996)
28 (1980-85)
64 (1994-95)
20 (1995)
2.60
2.00
2.6 (1997)
0.80
0.70
0.9 (1997)
0.273 (1987)
0.170
0.351 (1995)
114 (1987)
152
152 (1995)
1980
1990
Latest Year
Environment Indicators
GDP per unit of energy use (1987 $ per kg oil equivalent)
12.6
6.4 (1995)
94.8
88.9 (1995)
0.5
1.5 (1993)
0.04(1989)
.07(1992)
.1 (1993)
19,000.0
29,000.0 (1993)
Wood
1.5 (1993)
Primary Metals
1.9 (1993)
5.5 (1993)
Chemical
3.4 (1993)
46.5 (1993)
Textiles
38.0 (1993)
16.0
21.00
13.0
12.0 (1994)
48.00
548.0 (1990-95)
Land Use
1.1 (1990-95)
6.8 (1985)
7.9
8.1 (1994)
Threatened species
Mammals
23.0 (1994)
Birds
23.0 (1994)
Higher Plants
21.0 (1994)