Global Illness and Deaths Caused by Rotavirus Disease in Children
Global Illness and Deaths Caused by Rotavirus Disease in Children
Global Illness and Deaths Caused by Rotavirus Disease in Children
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RESEARCH
To estimate the extent of illness from rotavirus in children in developing countries, we first multiplied the total
population of infants (011 months) and children (1259
months) in those countries by the estimated annual incidence of diarrhea in the respective age groups (5,7). On the
basis of published estimates from a study in Chile (8), we
then distributed these diarrhea episodes into three settings:
mild cases only requiring care at home; moderate cases
requiring care in an outpatient clinic; and severe cases
requiring hospitalization. Next, on the basis of studies we
reviewed, we calculated the median proportion of diarrhea
episodes attributable to rotavirus in each of the three settings. Finally, we multiplied the total number of diarrhea
episodes in each setting by the estimated proportion attributable to rotavirus to yield the number of rotavirus cases in
each setting.
To estimate the number of hospitalizations for rotavirus
among children in industrialized countries, we multiplied
estimates of the total population of children <5 years of age
with rotavirus-associated hospitalization rates derived from
published studies. To calculate clinic visits and episodes of
rotavirus disease, we evaluated studies documenting the
frequency of these outcomes relative to hospitalizations
and multiplied the calculated total number of rotavirusassociated hospitalizations by corresponding factors. The
figures thus obtained were combined with estimates of
rotavirus illness in children in developing countries to yield
the global extent of illness from rotavirus disease.
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Rotavirus-Associated Deaths
To estimate the total number of child deaths from diarrhea, we plotted (for each country with available data) the
fraction of deaths of children <5 years of age attributable
to diarrhea against per capita gross national product
(GNP). Countries were classified on the basis of GNP per
capita into World Bank Income Groups (low [<U.S.$756],
low-middle [U.S.$756$2,995], high-middle [U.S.
$2,996$9,265], high [>U.S. $9,265]) (9). For each
income group, we calculated the median proportion of
deaths of children <5 years of age attributable to diarrhea.
We then multiplied the median proportion for each
income group by the total number of deaths of children <5
years of age for each country in that income group to yield
country-specific estimates of the mortality rate from diarrhea. These country-specific estimates were added to calculate the global mortality rate from diarrhea.
To estimate the fraction of diarrhea deaths attributable
to rotavirus, we plotted the proportion of rotavirus infection detected in children hospitalized for diarrhea that was,
by virtue of the need for hospitalization, presumed to be
severe. These figures were again plotted against per capita
GNP for each country to yield median rotavirus detection
rates for countries in the four World Bank income groups.
Previously estimated diarrhea mortality rates for each
country in an income group was multiplied by the median
rotavirus detection rate for that income group to yield the
estimated number of rotavirus deaths by country. These
figures were added to yield the number of global deaths
from rotavirus diarrhea. For each income strata and overall, the risk of death from rotavirus diarrhea by 5 years of
age was calculated by dividing the total number of live
births by the total number of deaths from rotavirus.
Results
Rotavirus Disease in Children in Developing
Countries
Total Number of Diarrhea Episodes
RESEARCH
Hospitalizations
Table 1. Estimates of the annual number of diarrhea episodes among children <5 years of age in developing countries, by age group
and settinga
Age group
<11 mo
14 y
Total (<4 y)
Total population (x1,000)
125,000
450,000
575,000
No. of diarrhea episodes per child per yb
3.8
2.1
NA
Total diarrhea episodes (x1,000)
475,000
945,000
1,420,000
No. of episodes at home (x1,000)
418,950 (88.2)
868,455 (91.9)
1,287,405
No. of episodes in outpatients (x1,000)
48,925 (10.3)
74,655 (7.9)
123,580
No. of case-patients hospitalized (x1,000)
7,125 (1.5)
1,890 (0.2)
9,015
a
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Table 2. Estimates of the annual number of episodes of rotavirus diarrhea among children <5 years of age in developing countries, by
setting
Home
Outpatient
Inpatient
Annual no. of diarrhea episodes (x1,000)
1,287,405
123,580
9,015
Median % of episodes with rotavirus (IQR)a
8.1 (4.012.2)
18.8 (15.022.0)
21.3 (17.228.8)
Total rotavirus episodes (range) (x1,000)
104,280 (51,496157,063)
23,233 (18,53727,188)
1,920 (1,5512,596)
a
with increasing income level (Figure 1A); the median proportion for low-income countries was 21%; for low-middle income countries, 17%; for high-middle income countries, 9%; and for high-income countries, 1%. We multiplied these income stratum-specific median estimates with
the combined <5 mortality estimates for countries in each
of the four income strata to yield an overall estimate of 2.1
million (range 1.7 million3.0 million) diarrhea deaths per
year (Table 5). Of the median 2.1 million diarrhea deaths,
85% (N=1,805,000) occurred in children from low-income
countries.
The proportion of diarrhea hospitalizations attributable
to rotavirus demonstrated an increasing trend with increasing income level (Figure 1B); the median for low-income
countries was 20%; for low-middle income countries,
25%; for high-middle income countries, 31%; and for
high-income countries, 34%. We multiplied these stratumspecific proportions with the median estimate of total diarrhea deaths for countries in each of the four income strata
to yield an estimated 352,000592,000 (median 440,000
deaths) per year from rotavirus. Of the median 440,000
deaths, 82% (N=361,000) occurred in children from lowincome countries.
To obtain country-specific estimates of deaths from
diarrhea and rotavirus disease, we first multiplied United
Nations Childrens Fund estimates of total number of
Table 3. Annual incidence of hospitalizations for rotavirus gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age in selected industrialized countries
Country (reference)
Y
Annual incidence/100,000 children
Cumulative incidence by 5 y of age
Spain (11)
19891995
250
1 in 80
Netherlands (12)
1998
270
1 in 74
United States (13)
19931995
274
1 in 73
Poland (14)
1996
310
1 in 65
Sweden (15)
19931996
370a
1 in 54
United Kingdom (16)
19931994
520
1 in 38
Finland (17)
19851995
610
1 in 33
Australia (18)
19931996
750
1 in 27
Hungary (19)
19931996
840a
1 in 24
Australia (20)
19911993
870
1 in 23
a
Table 4. Annual global illness incidence from rotavirus disease among children <5 years age, by setting
No. (range) of episodes of rotavirus disease (x1,000)
Setting
Developing countries
Industrialized countries
Total
Home
104,280 (51,496157,063)
7,122 (2,12317,881)
111,402 (53,619174,946)
Outpatient
23,233 (18,53727,188)
1,781 (7083,576)
25,017 (19,24530,764)
Inpatient
1,920 (1,5512,596)
223 (142358)
2,143 (1,6932,954)
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RESEARCH
Figure 1. A. Percentage of deaths in children <5 years that are attributable to diarrhea for countries in different World Bank income
groups, by gross national product (GNP) per capita of the country. B. Percentage of diarrhea hospitalization attributable to rotavirus for
countries in different World Bank income groups, by GNP per capita of the country. IQR, interquartile range.
poorer access to hydration therapy and a greater prevalence of malnutrition. An estimated 1,205 children die
from rotavirus disease each day, and 82% of these deaths
occur in children in the poorest countries.
In 1986, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) estimated, on
the basis of published studies and field experience, that
annually rotavirus causes approximately 110 million
episodes of mild diarrhea, 10 million episodes of moderate
to severe diarrhea, and 9 million episodes of severe diarrhea in children <5 years of age worldwide (23). Our estimate of the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis is similar
to the IOM estimate and is consistent with a recent analysis demonstrating that overall diarrhea illness in children
worldwide has not declined appreciably in the past two
decades (5). However, our estimate of total hospitalizations from rotavirus disease is substantially lower than the
IOM estimate. The difference might be explained, in part,
by the relatively low hospitalization rate for diarrhea in the
study in Chile (1.5% of all diarrhea episodes) used in our
calculations (8). However, a study in a low-income urban
community in Thailand showed a similar hospitalization
rate (1% of all diarrhea episodes) among children with
diarrhea (10), giving us added confidence in our estimates.
Increased use of oral rehydration therapy and improvements in nutritional status are two factors that might
explain a possible reduction in severe rotavirus cases without a concomitant decline in diarrhea incidence (24,25).
Our estimate of 352,000592,000 deaths (median:
440,000 deaths) from rotavirus disease each year is similar
to a recent estimate of 418,000520,000 deaths proposed
by Miller and McCann (6) but is substantially lower than
the 1985 IOM estimate of 873,000 deaths. This decline in
the rotavirus mortality rate parallels the decline in overall
deaths from diarrhea in children in the past two decades,
from an estimated 4.6 million deaths in 1982 (26) to our
estimate of 2.1 million deaths in 2000. However, the patterns of diarrhea deaths reported in this study reflect the
situation a decade ago, when most studies that we
reviewed were conducted. Analyses of vital registration
data from several countries have suggested that the proportion of deaths from diarrhea may have declined further in
recent years (27). Other studies have noted marked discrepancies in the analysis of cause of death from vital registration data and prospective observational studies (28).
Careful and detailed analyses are required to assess the
current magnitude of the deaths from diarrhea in children,
Table 5. Global estimates of the annual number of diarrhea and rotavirus deaths among children <5 years of age, by income group
Total no. (x1,000)
Diarrhea deaths
Rotavirus deathsb
a
Income
Median % (IQR ) Median no. (IQR) of
Median % (IQR) of
Median no. (IQR) of Risk of dying from
group
rotavirus by age 5
of total deaths
deaths (x1,000)
diarrhea hospitalizations
deaths (x1,000)
Births
Deaths
Low
Low middle
Upper
middle
High
Total
70,447
37,402
11,520
8,595
1,609
366
21 (1730)
17 (1123)
9 (517)
1,805 (1,4612,579)
274 (177370)
33 (1862)
20 (1627)
25 (2033)
31 (2542)
361 (289487)
69 (5590)
10 (814)
1 in 205
1 in 542
1 in 1,152
9,931
129,300
60
10,630
1
NA
<1
2,112 (1,6573,012)
34 (2838)
NA
<1
440 (352592)
1 in 48,680
1 in 293
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36. Ehrenkranz P, Lanata CF, Penny ME, Salazar-Lindo E, Glass RI.
Rotavirus diarrhea disease burden in Peru: the need for a rotavirus
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2001;10:2408.
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Address for correspondence: Umesh D. Parashar, Viral Gastroenteritis
Section, Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, National Center for
Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600
Clifton Road NE, Mailstop G04, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA; fax: 404-6393645; email: uap2@cdc.gov
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