Hanson Case
Hanson Case
Hanson Case
Operating Assumptions
Use formulas to calculate the numbers in the cells highlighted green. You can check your answers with Exhibit 5 from the case.
Revenue Projection:
Total Capacity (000's)
Capacity Utilization
Unit Sales Volume (000's)
Selling Price Per Unit
Revenue (000's)
2009
80,000
60.0%
48,000
1.77
84,960
2010
80,000
65.0%
52,000
1.81
93,881
2011
80,000
70.0%
56,000
1.84
103,124
2012
80,000
75.0%
60,000
1.88
112,700
2013
80,000
80.0%
64,000
1.92
122,618
2014
80,000
85.0%
68,000
1.95
132,887
2015
80,000
85.0%
68,000
1.99
135,545
2016
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.03
138,256
2017
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.07
141,021
growing at
2.0%
growing at
growing at
growing at
1.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.94
3,600
2,250
0.95
3,708
2,318
0.96
3,819
2,387
0.97
3,934
2,459
0.98
4,052
2,532
0.99
4,173
2,608
1.00
4,299
2,687
1.01
4,428
2,767
1.02
4,560
2,850
growing at
3.5%
4
160.0
640.0
4
165.6
662.4
6
171.4
1,028.4
6
177.4
1,064.4
8
183.6
1,468.8
8
190.0
1,520.2
8
196.7
1,573.4
8
203.6
1,628.5
8
210.7
1,685.5
growing at
3.5%
20.00
2,000
40,000
450
18,000.0
20.70
2,000
41,400
473
19,570.9
21.42
2,000
42,849
509
21,814.0
22.17
2,000
44,349
545
24,190.2
22.95
2,000
45,901
582
26,706.0
23.75
2,000
47,507
618
29,368.2
24.59
2,000
49,170
618
30,396.1
25.45
2,000
50,891
618
31,460.0
26.34
2,000
52,672
618
32,561.1
18,640.0
20,233.3
22,842.4
25,254.6
28,174.8
30,888.5
31,969.6
33,088.5
34,246.6
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
0.375
0.376
0.390
0.403
0.417
0.432
0.447
0.463
0.479
0.053
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.055
Production Costs:
Raw Materials Per Unit
Manufacturing Overhead (000's)
Maintenance Expense (000's)
Salaried Labor Cost:
Managers
Average Annual Cost (000's)
Total Salaried Labor Cost (000's)
Hourly Labor Cost:
Average Fully Loaded Hourly Cost
Hours Per Year
Cost Per Hourly Employee
Number of Hourly Workers
Total Hourly Labor Cost (000's)
Total Labor Cost (000's)
ng Assumptions (Exhibit 5)
ed on Gates' Assumptions
2018
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.12
143,841
1.03
4,697
2,936
8
218.1
1,744.5
27.26
2,000
54,516
618
33,700.7
35,445.2
7.8%
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
0.496
3.15%
0.055
0.34%
Cost Analysis
Based on Gates' Assumptions
2009
11,645
8,393
7,245
12,792
12,792
2010
12,868
9,118
7,872
14,114
1,322
2011
14,135
9,976
8,613
15,499
1,384
2012
15,447
10,822
9,342
16,927
1,428
2013
16,807
11,739
10,134
18,411
1,485
2014
18,214
12,641
10,913
19,942
1,531
2015
18,578
12,877
11,117
20,339
397
2016
18,950
13,119
11,326
20,743
405
2017
19,329
13,368
11,540
21,156
413
2018
19,716
13,622
11,760
21,578
421
45,000
41,000
37,000
33,000
29,000
25,000
21,000
17,000
13,000
9,000
5,000
45,000
53,792
51,114
48,499
45,927
43,411
40,942
37,339
33,743
30,156
26,578
4.9%
1.6x
7.8%
1.8x
9.9%
2.1x
12.8%
2.4x
16.1%
2.8x
19.9%
3.2x
22.5%
3.6x
25.7%
4.0x
29.7%
4.6x
34.6%
5.3x
84,960
69,610
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
93,881
75,628
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
103,124
82,747
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
112,700
89,756
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
122,618
97,362
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
132,887
104,851
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
135,545
106,807
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
138,256
108,814
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
141,021
110,873
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
143,841
112,987
50.0x
44.0x
38.0x
Asset Efficiency:
RNOA (1)
ATO
Sales
COGS (Total Expenses less Selling, General & Admin)
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) (Acct Rec / Sales) x 365
Days Sales Inventory (DSI) (Inventory / COGS) x 365
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) (Acct Pay / COGS) x
(1) RNOA is return on net operating assets, and is defined as NOPAT divided by the ending invested capital account
Use the assumptions from the 'Exhibit5' tab and your understanding of the REIT method to calculate the numbers in the green cells.
0
Operating Results:
2008
Revenue
Expenses
Less: Raw Material Costs
Less: Labor Expense
Less: Manufacturing Overhead
Less: Maintenance Expense
Less: Selling, General & Administrative Expense
Less Total Expenses
Investment
Less: Upfront Investment
45,000
Less: Change in Working Capital
Less: Return of Working Capital (1)
Less Total Investment
45,000
Less Taxes
Total After-Tax Cash Flows
45,000
Discount factor 1 / (1+r)^n
1.000
PV of cash flow (Total Cash flow x Discount f 56,714
NPV
11,714
Required return of project (cost of capital)
Effective corporate tax rate
Depreciation
1
2009
84,960
2
2010
93,881
3
2011
103,124
4
2012
112,700
5
2013
122,618
6
2014
132,887
7
2015
135,545
8
2016
138,256
9
2017
141,021
10
2018
143,841
45,120
18,640
3,600
2,250
6,627
76,237
49,369
20,233
3,708
2,318
7,323
82,950
53,698
22,842
3,819
2,387
8,044
90,790
58,109
25,255
3,934
2,459
8,791
98,547
62,603
28,175
4,052
2,532
9,564
106,926
67,181
30,888
4,173
2,608
10,365
115,216
67,852
31,970
4,299
2,687
10,573
117,380
68,531
33,089
4,428
2,767
10,784
119,598
69,216
34,247
4,560
2,850
11,000
121,873
69,908
35,445
4,697
2,936
11,220
124,206
12,792
1,322
1,384
1,428
1,485
1,531
397
405
413
12,792
1,889
(5,958)
0.914
(5,447)
1,322
2,772
6,836
0.836
5,714
1,384
3,334
7,616
0.764
5,820
1,428
4,061
8,664
0.699
6,053
1,485
4,677
9,530
0.639
6,087
1,531
5,468
10,672
0.584
6,232
397
5,666
12,103
0.534
6,461
405
5,863
12,390
0.488
6,047
413
6,059
12,676
0.446
5,656
421
(21,578)
(21,156)
6,254
34,537
0.408
14,090
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
Sum of WC
0
9.38%
40.00%
(1) The return of working capital occurs at the end of the forecasted cash flows. It is equal to accounts receivable less accounts payable less inventory. Note that the sum of all change in working capital is zero.
Note: Because the property, plant, and equipment is specialized and almost completely depreciated, it is assumed to be worthless.
Use the assumptions from the 'Exhibit5' tab and your understanding of the Tax Shield method to calculate the numbers in the green cells.
0
Operating Results:
2008
Revenue
Expenses
Less: Raw Material Costs
Less: Labor Expense
Less: Manufacturing Overhead
Less: Maintenance Expense
Less: Selling, General & Administrative Expense
Less Total Expenses
Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depr & Ammort (EBITDA)
Less: Depreciation
Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT)
Less: Income tax
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
Add Depreciation
Operating Cash Flow
Investment
Less: Upfront Investment
Less: Change in Working Capital
Less: Return of Working Capital (1)
Less Total Investment
0
Total After-Tax Cash Flows
Discount factor 1 / (1+r)^n
PV of cash flow (Total Cash flow x Discount factor)
NPV
1
2009
2
2010
3
2011
4
2012
5
2013
6
2014
7
2015
8
2016
9
2017
10
2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12,792
1,322
1,384
1,428
1,485
1,531
397
405
413
12,792
1,322
1,384
1,428
1,485
1,531
397
405
413
421
(21,578)
(21,156)
Sum of WC
0
2008
(45,000)
IRR
13.06%
Modified IRR:
Un-Levered Free Cash Flows
2008
FV of Un-Levered FCF
Sum of FV FCF
Initial Investment
MIRR
Cost of Capital
139,012
45,000
11.94%
9.38%
2009
(5,958)
2010
6,836
2011
7,616
2012
8,664
2013
9,530
2014
10,672
2015
12,103
2016
12,390
2017
12,676
2018
34,537
2009
(5,958)
2010
6,836
2011
7,616
2012
8,664
2013
9,530
2014
10,672
2015
12,103
2016
12,390
2017
12,676
2018
34,537
(13,351)
14,005
14,265
14,836
14,920
15,274
15,837
14,823
13,865
34,537
Invested Capital:
Beginning Balance
Plus: Change in Working Capital
Less: Depreciation
Ending Balance
2009
45,000
12,792
4,000
53,792
2010
53,792
1,322
4,000
51,114
2011
51,114
1,384
4,000
48,499
2012
48,499
1,428
4,000
45,927
2013
45,927
1,485
4,000
43,411
2014
43,411
1,531
4,000
40,942
2015
40,942
397
4,000
37,339
2016
37,339
405
4,000
33,743
2017
33,743
413
4,000
30,156
2018
30,156
421
4,000
26,578
EVA Analysis:
NOPAT
Less: Capital Charge
EVA
0
4,221
(4,221)
0
5,046
(5,046)
0
4,795
(4,795)
0
4,549
(4,549)
0
4,308
(4,308)
0
4,072
(4,072)
0
3,840
(3,840)
0
3,502
(3,502)
0
3,165
(3,165)
0
2,829
(2,829)
(3,859)
(4,217)
(3,664)
(3,178)
(2,752)
(2,378)
(2,050)
(1,709)
(1,412)
(1,154)
21,578
Cost of Capital
9.38%
PV of EVA
Plus: Return Working Capital (1)
Less: PV of 2018 Capital
Total EVA
(26,374)
8,803
10,843
(28,414)
(1) The return of working capital is equal to accounts receivable less accounts payable. Inventory is assumed to be worthless.
Note: Because the property, plant, and equipment is specialized and almost completely depreciated, it is assumed to be worthless.