UMTS Forum

Summary of Recent Activities 2010-2011

3G/3G+/LTE global market
overview
Recent reports and studies
- Delivering on the promises of
IMT in C-Band
- Consumer Electronics meet
mobile broadband
- Mobile Traffic forecasts 2010-
2020 & UMTSF key messages

Spectrum contributions to ITU,
EC & CEPT
Recent News announcements
UMTS Forum 2010-2011 key focus areas
Key focus areas
Spectrum & Regulation Mobile Broadband/LTE Ecosystem
Advice to industry and administrations on 3G/LTE
licensing & regulation
Study of LTE in conjunction with the Digital Home and
Consumer Electronics
Global spectrum and spectrum arrangements
for UMTS/IMT-2000 & IMT-Advanced
Roadmap and competitive benefits for HSPA, LTE and
beyond Global mobile traffic forecasts
Key Growth Markets
Studies and workshops on mobile broadband and
technical choices
Promotion of the use of mobile service allocations and
Digital Dividend
Main activities
Studies, Reports and White papers
Communication and Promotion
Visibility and participation at conferences,
exhibitions, seminars and workshops
Relationships with regulators, administrations,
international media and financial community
Contributions to international organizations (ITU, EC, CEPT/ECC, 3GPP)
Partnerships with international bodies (ETSI, NGMN, GSMA, ICU, COAI, APT, 4GAs)
4
Nurturing the mobile broadband ecosystem (1)

Standards support and promotion:
The UMTS Forum (UMTSF) provides marketing, technical and spectrum inputs to
standardization bodies (SDOs) such as ITU, CEPT and 3GPP, notably indicating to those
ones the needs of operators, and the benefits of open interfaces

and of globally harmonized
standards and spectrum bands. As an industry forum, UMTSF promotes solutions defined
by the SDOs, in a way that can be understood by external audiences such as marketing
teams, financial analysts, journalists,

UMTSF also provides market knowledge externally to
aid rapid development and uptake of new services and applications.

Some success stories:
-

UMTS Forum became the 1st Market Representation Partner (MRP) in 3GPP (Third
Generation Partnership Project)

in 1998, and will be 15 years old by end 2011
- UMTSF was a major contributor for obtaining the 2.6 GHz IMT-2000 extension spectrum
band at World Radiocommunication

Conference 2000 (WRC-00) in Istanbul, now allocated for
LTE, and was instrumental in obtaining Digital Dividend and C-band spectrum for mobile at
WRC-07 in Geneva
- UMTSF traffic and spectrum forecasts were contributing to WRC-07 at ITU-R, and were
integrated in April 2011 as a contribution to the next WRC-12 by ITU-R
-

The 750 m 3G/UMTS subscribers milestone will be reached by end May 2011
5
Nurturing the mobile broadband ecosystem (2)

Cross-sector organisation:
UMTSF has always mediated between the interests of operator and vendor
communities (and also of administrations/regulators until recently), which gives great
credibility to its contributions. For instance we have done a huge amount of work
over the last decade in forecasting data traffic levels as inputs to the ITU, 3GPP
and CEPT. Here our cross-sector make-up has given UMTSF a unique industry
position with realistic, carefully-judged and consensual traffic forecasts.

Shaping mobile broadband/LTE ecosystem:
This cross-sector philosophy has renewed relevance today, as mobile evolves

from
a classical ecosystem to a more complex, diverse world. UMTSF offers a
white space, where players in this evolving ecosystem can meet on neutral ground
and share ideas for a low membership fee.

Reports and studies:
UMTSF has published more than 50 reports and studies, of which the most recent
ones give a first global insight of mobile broadband/LTE ecosystem evolution.
3G/UMTS mobile broadband:
a global mass market
Over 900m 3G subscribers (UMTS + EVDO) worldwide
in which almost 750m UMTS subs, including almost 450m HSPA
subs, and over 160m CDMA2000 EV-DO subs.
Over 370 3G/WCDMA networks (inc. 170 in Europe) in 150+ countries...
...in which over 345 HSPA networks,
and more than 100 HSPA+ networks launched
Around 25 UMTS 900 networks launched
And over 20 LTE networks commercially launched
3G/UMTS Mobile broadband networks
W-CDMA & HSPA map - World
2G/3G/4G Technologies compared
Source: UMTS Forum
LTE drivers for Mobile Network Operators
Increase ARPU: with

higher

monthly

caps and DL data rates, MNOs

should

generate

higher

data ARPU
Gain additional

capacity and higher

throughput
Change technology path: CDMA2000 and Mobile WiMAX

operators

are
converging

towards

3GPP LTE
Reduce the data cost structure for operators

already

facing

an explosion in
mobile data traffic, especially

owing

to flat-rate or unlimited

packages (this

was

the
case for Telia

in Sweden, in particular);
Opt for a completely new network when

the age

and capacity

of the core

mobile networks would

make

expensive

upgrades necessary;
Differentiation from the competition on very

active markets, rather

like

Verizon

(USA), a CDMA EV-DO operator

which

needed

to respond

to competition

from 3G+/UMTS (HSPA and HSPA+) Sources: Orange, Idate, UMTS Forum
A growing TD-LTE Ecosystem

TDD & FDD versions of 3GPP LTE have strong
similarities, and some manufacturers are building
common FDD/TDD chipset platforms

There is a global availability of TDD spectrum: 2.3GHz
was recently allocated for BWA in India

Strong support of TD-LTE from leading mobile
operators, of which China Mobile is a big promoter
(Shanghai World Expo first demos in June 2010),
recently joined by Yota (Russia) and by
Sprint/Clearwire (USA) as well as significant BWA
actors in India
LTE adopted Business Models

Classical LTE model -

offloading/capacity

requirement: JV
Net4Mobility Tele2 / Telenor: expanding

network capacity

Mobile broadband centric solution - Telia Sonera, Telekom
Austria, Verizon: offering

high

speed mobile BB services

FWA and substitution of Unbundling Local Loop - Vodafone
Germany, O2 Germany: offering

stationary

BB via LTE modems
(FWA)

Phasing out DSL via more efficient networks - Deutsche
Telekom: providing

BB services in rural areas / small

cities

Niche services / Targeted B2B2C - WAN for backhaul

solutions
/offload

data; solutions for automotive

industry, travel

&
transportation,

Wholesale LTE model

for MNOs

and SPs: Lightsquared (USA:
LTE/satellite), Yota (Russia), Clearwire (USA): reselling

data traffic

to interested

parties via LTE network; solutions for MNOs

for access

to rural areas and lower

Capex, MVNOs, Service providers
Source: Sofrecom
14
Recent UMTS Forum Reports and Studies

Delivering on the promises of IMT in C-band: key
findings on C-band spectrum usage July 2010

From HSPA to LTE & beyond: Recognising the promise
of mobile broadband - July 2010

Two worlds connected: consumer electronics meets
mobile broadband - February 2011

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 February 2011
Delivering on the promises of IMT in C-band

The 3400-3800 MHz band is the key band in the near future
for the advent of 4G, with LTE-Advanced as its forefront.
The benefits of 4G to customers, citizen and society, will only
materialize if the appropriate frequency channels are available
for the deployment of 4G systems, i.e. channel bandwidth of 40
and up to 100 MHz (Minimum 2x20 MHz for FDD and 40 MHz for TDD. Up to
2x50 MHz for FDD and 100MHz for TDD).

Currently, the 3400-3800 MHz band is shared by multiple
systems ranging from Broadband Wireless Access Systems,
Fixed Links and satellite services. The UMTS Forum
commissioned a study to identify the current usage of the
band and the opportunities to open the band for 4G
networks in a representative number of countries in Asia,
Africa and South-America.
C-band report key findings

The usage of satellite services in the band is clustered geographically as well
as in frequencies. The main satellite deployments occur in the 3600-3800MHz
band, in specific countries suffering from heavy rain.

The specific benefits of the C-band for satellite services have drastically
diminished since WRC-07 with the rise of alternative satellite services in the Ka
and Ku bands due to their improved performance. In effect, the C-band only
remains attractive for hemispheric or continental satellite services, that is mainly
Earth Stations on board Vessels (ESVs) services for trans-oceanic operations.

Fiber connectivity is increasing around the globe, providing in many countries
an alternative to many satellite services traditionnally

held in the C-band for
internet access. Fiber connectivity is likely to increase speed,

improve reliability
and reduce the cost of internet access.

Sharing of the 3400-3800 MHz band can be managed between IMT and large
Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) earth stations, but may be challenging when
co-existing with Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), Television Receive-Only
(TVRO) and Satellite News Gathering (SNG) devices. These challenges could
seriously hamper the prospect of IMT-Advanced delivering its full benefits in the
band.
Proposals for LTE Advanced in C-band
Based on these decisive findings and its own technical expertise, the UMTS Forum
proposes the following guidelines in order to enable the rise of

LTE Advanced
services:

The 3400-3800 MHz should be considered as the key band in order to provide
mobile broadband 4G services to citizen and society. Minimum channel
bandwidth of 40 MHz should be adopted, preferably allowing up to

channel
bandwidth of 100 MHz.

Countries and regions should work together in order to agree on

a global, or at
least regional, harmonized band plan for IMT systems in 3400-3800 MHz.

Such international band plan should allow the introduction of IMT systems
independently in sub-bands 3400-3600 MHz and 3600-3800 MHz, allowing
individual countries to introduce IMT according to their own timeline and
respecting their potential need for continued satellite services

in the band.

Countries should target the total availability of sub-bands (i.e. 3400-3600
and/or 3600-3800 MHz) for IMT services. Specifically, countries should assess
the possibility to relocate satellite services in higher bands such as the Ka (17-31
GHz) or Ku (12-15 GHz) bands. Sharing of the 3400-3800 MHz band between
satellite and IMT services will not enable a satisfactory 4G service
Consumer Electronics meets mobile
broadband : study objectives
This study investigates the relationship of the mobile
industry with Consumer Electronics with a special
focus on LTE

At the heart of the research were 30 in-depth interviews with players
across industry segments, value chains and geographies

Fixed, mobile and integrated operators from around the world

Manufacturers of different kinds of CE

Infrastructure and chipset vendors

Other players including auto equipment makers, media
companies and regulators

Issues investigated included state of the CE industry and in-home
connectivity, devices likely to be connected and how, the impact

of
CE devices on the mobile industry, the relative merits of air interface
standards perceived, as well as the role of regulators.
18
Key Findings
1. No doubt CE is becoming connected

Consumer Electronics industry in flux: Connect or Perish
2. CE devices* not main driver for mobile broadband

At least not in short-medium term
3. Mobile broadband enabled devices largely support mobile usage

WiFi

to remain dominant access technology in homes
4. Cloud- and media server-based solutions will coexist

Cloud appears to have more wide-spread momentum currently
5. Business model very much the key barrier to mobile broadband
enabled CE devices on a large scale

Other perceived barriers to ubiquitous mobile broadband include market
fragmentation, LTE chip prices, need of clear value proposition for LTE to be
understood by CE players
6. Connected CE Devices worldwide should reach 1 billion in 2016

Faster growth than the overall wireless market

North America and Japan are the leading LTE markets in the short

term
19
* Other than notebooks and mobile phones
Mobile Broadband CE Taxonomy

Four major
categories, with
some applications
overlap

Portable devices
may be used in the
home or in the car

Healthcare devices
may be used
anywhere

Automotive devices
are dedicated to the
car
New classes of CE devices connect wirelessly

Though portable devices will represent
the lions share of these billion devices,
more than a third will be designed
primarily for in-home use, such as home
robots, security, or multimedia.

The promise of in-car entertainment and
telematics

will finally be fulfilled by new
generation networks, with more than 200
million cars connected to mobile
broadband networks by 2016

The connected CE device market will be
much more fragmented into vertical
specialties than has been the handset
market, with mobile broadband
enabling new classes of devices, such
as connected tablets, augmented reality
games, robots or tele-presence systems.
21
There will be at least a billion consumer electronics devices directly connected to
GSM-family mobile broadband networks by 2016, with good upside potential
22
Call for Action: Operators (1)

This research and particularly the interviews carried out across

a wide
range of players very much affirmed the notion that operators need to
stimulate the development of mobile enabled CE, rather than expect much
drive from CE vendors. Hence operators need to regain their pivotal
role in the ecosystem or otherwise the ecosystem may never thrive.

Though clearly traffic is linked to the existence of compelling content and
applications, at the same time the single biggest critical investment is in
the network, without which the content and applications would remain
inaccessible.

Clearly, operator walled garden

approaches have failed to muster
consumer enthusiasm, and so if operators wish to regain the initiative, it is
probably by following exactly the opposite tack that they may succeed:
becoming agents of openness, or in other words enabling the federation
of devices and content from many different sources.

This approach does not exclude wholesaling of traffic to specialised
MVNOs, on the contrary: being the easiest operator to work with, armed
with the best customer management systems, for a range of MVNOs

can
bring a synergistic range of services to the operators portfolio.
23
Call for Action: Operators (2)

At the same time the key question of who pays for the wireless module
demands new collaborative approaches. Modules remain expensive and
manufacturers are reluctant to add the cost into the hardware when
margins are already very thin. An obvious solution could be for operators
and CE vendors to share the investment risk within the framework

of
service revenue sharing deals. This may also appeal to CE vendors
many of whom are seeking to develop a service revenue business.

In addition CE vendors clearly lack the skills to develop a service business
which poses a further opportunity for operators to carry out roles for
CE vendors beyond connectivity, e.g. technology platform
management, managing parts of the customer experience or acting as a
route to market. Here operators could create packaged offers for

CE
vendors helping them to 'mobilise

their devices.

Operators must be motivated to unlock this opportunity by creating value
for themselves as well as avoid other players seizing the initiative and
moulding

the opportunity which would leave operators in a commoditised

and price competitive space, i.e. the much dreaded dumb pipe

scenario.
Mobile
Mobile
Traffic
Traffic
forecasts
forecasts
: Main trends (1)
: Main trends (1)
Mobile voice overtaken by mobile data at 2009, in terms of traffic generated
on mobile networks. Mobile voice traffic growth is expected to remain limited
compared to the explosive growth in data traffic from 2010 to 2020.
Currently mobile data traffic generated by mobile broadband
(1)
subscribers
is taking off. In Nov 2010, one Scandinavian operator indicated that average:
3G smart phone user: 375 MB/month 12 MB/day
3G broadband user (e.g. via HSPA data card): 5 GB/month 167 MB/day
LTE consumer (data card usage only) : 15 GB/month 500 MB/day
In the US, one mobile operator announced an average data of 7 GB per month
for a base of 2 million subscribers in July 2010.
Growing number of mobile devices such as tablets, dongles, smartphones

and connected devices
(1)

By Mobile Broadband, the UMTS Forum refers to subscriptions and devices using technologies that can offer 3G bitrates (or higher, such as
HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE). In this context, GSM and GPRS are not considered as Mobile Broadband technologies
Mobile
Mobile
Traffic
Traffic
forecasts
forecasts
: Main trends (2)
: Main trends (2)
The LTE ecosystem is developing rapidly as LTE took off in year

2010
and LTE-Advanced is planned for 2015 according to time to market
expectations.
In 2010, the machine-to-machine (M2M) market already represents 53
million modules. M2M will continue to grow significantly. However in the
future, the main contribution for mobile traffic will come from other devices.
Small cells and Femtocells are becoming the solutions of choice for
increasing network capacity.
Social networking has become very important for mobile users and
now represents new consumption patterns and generates significant traffic.
Video has become increasingly important and is the No.1 source of
data traffic. TV content provision by Internet also generates data traffic on

mobile networks.
The
The
dramatic
dramatic

growth
growth

of data
of data
traffic
traffic

AT&T traffic

evolution
UK mobile data traffic growth
Source: Ofcom
Source: AT&T
Mobile data traffic evolution (TB per million inhabitants per
month) in some European countries
Source: ECC PT1
Daily traffic consumption in Europe
Source: Sandvine
Drivers
Drivers
(1/2)
(1/2)
Main changes compared to 2005 findings:
New devices: tablets

& other

connected

devices
Evolutions of the
mobile value chain
Enablers of mobile Internet
2008 2010 2015
Mobile traffic
Networks
Terminals
Applications
Tariff plans
HSPA HSPA+ LTE LTE-Advanced
App stores launch App stores growth
iPhone Android smartphones Tablets Connected devices
Unlimited pricing Introduction of tiered pricing Content based pricing?
Drivers (2/2)
Evolution of the mobile value chain
Source: IDATE / UMTS Forum
The arrival of Internet and PC actors in the mobile sector

Apple with the iPhone

and the AppStore

concept

Google launching the Android Operating System
Global mobile subscriptions forecasts (including M2M):
Global Base (million) 2010 2015 2020
Europe 1 033 1 222 1 427
Americas 915 1 166 1 437
Asia 2 579 3 825 4 957
Rest of the world 801 1 276 1 863
World 5 328 7 490 9 684
Main hypothesis
In this report, mobile traffic forecasts represent:
The uplink and downlink traffic for voice and data transported on using licensed spectrum
Traffic forecasts include the traffic managed by Femtocells
Wi-Fi offloading is not taken into account* nor RFID traffic or any other traffic on unlicensed
frequency bands
* Wi-Fi or any type of traffic offloading on unlicensed spectrum relates, by essence, to stationary wireless broadband
access. It implies some usage restrictions/limitations on the quality, mobility and security of the service. As such, Wi-Fi
is a second choice

solution to a primary mobile broadband access. The two access methods (mobile broadband and
stationary wireless broadband) are complementary, not competing.

There will always be applications that work
reasonably well in best effort, while many others will need QoS. This Report clearly focuses on mobile broadband -

that
is, not stationary wireless broadband -

and therefore Wi-Fi traffic was excluded from this Report.
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010
-
-
2020 (1)
2020 (1)
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (2)
Total worldwide mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020,
representing a 33 times increase compared with 2010 figure.
Total mobile traffic (EB per year)
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2010 2015 2020
Y
e
a
r
l
y

t
r
a
f
f
i
c

i
n

E
B
Europe
Americas
Asia
Rest of the world
World
Source: IDATE
In 2020, daily traffic per Mobile Broadband subscription
[1]
in the
representative Western European country will stand at 294 MB as an average
and at 503 MB for dongles only.
Finally, we anticipate total worldwide mobile traffic of 351 EB in 2025
representing a 174% increase compared to 2020.
[1]

According to the model used in this report, users of Mobile Broadband (MBB) subscriptions with high-end smartphones

and
dongles will represent 31% of the subscriptions in 2020 and 63% of the mobile traffic
Daily mobile traffic per subscription 2010 2015 2020
Mobile Broadband (MB per day) 10 155 294
Dongles (MB per day) 26.7 265 503
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (3)
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (4)
Significantly, at least 80% of the traffic volume remains generated by users,
leading to large variations of the total mobile traffic both in terms of time and
space variations of traffic.
Future mobile networks must be designed to cope with such variation of
traffic and uneven traffic distribution, while at the same time maintaining a
permanent and extensive geographical coverage in order to provide
continuity of service to customers. LTE is seen as a solution to congestion
and saturation network issues in dense areas.
These opposite constraints are some of the most significant future challenges
for operators.

Source: UMTS Forum
From 2010 to 2020, total daily mobile traffic in a representative Western European country
will grow 67 times from 186 TB to

12540 TB.
Total daily mobile traffic 2010 2015 2020
Representative Western European
Country
(TB per day)
186 5,098 12,540
UMTS Forum key Messages

The UMTS Forum believes

strongly

that

all identified IMT
spectrum should be made available as soon as possible for
mobile broadband usage in all countries

At

the forthcoming

World Radiocommunication Conference

(WRC-
12), the UMTS Forum will be supporting the adoption of an
Agenda Item (AI) for the next WRC in 2016. In particular, we

are
arguing

on behalf

of the cellular industry

and related

industries

that

WRC-12 should

open a 4-year study cycle to examine in
detail

the future spectrum requirements for mobile broadband.
This in turn

should

lead

to the adoption of an appropriate
decision at WRC-16.

In the UMTS Forum we

dont

want

to prejudge

the outcome

of this

study

cycle. As such, we

cannot

be

specific

about the position it

will

defend

for WRC-16. In any

case the UMTS Forum supports
not only

the timely availability of spectrum but also
harmonisation in general, when possible on a global basis.
Spectrum contributions to ITU, EC & CEPT

Digital Dividend/700MHz band plan in Asia: UMTS Forum has
successfully contributed to the definition by the APT/AWF of a band plan for
the Digital Dividend in Asia (ITU Region 3). We promote the importance of
harmonization for the availability of terminals as well as compatibility
between regional band plans.

Preparation of WRC-12: with its Mobile Traffic Report 2010-2020, UMTSF
is a main contributor to the ITU-R IMT-UPDATE report which details the
mobile broadband current and expected traffic growth around the world. The
Traffic Report was also an input to CEPT/ECC, as well as to EC Spectrum
Policy Unit.

C-band/3400-3800MHz Harmonization: the C-band study has been
submitted to several international regulatory groups, including EC and
CEPT/ECC, and is also relevant in the context of the WRC 12.

900MHz band: UMTSF engaged discussions with the MIC in Japan in order
to try to achieve harmonization of the Japanese 900 MHz band with the
international 900MHz band.

L-band/1452-1492MHz: new CEPT/ECC work group on potential
opportunity for mobile broadband in the L-band. UMTSF will examine how
this opportunity is linked to 3GPP, and especially if the definition of specific
band aggregation is required in standards.
PR/external communications
The UMTS Forum continues to
stimulate and react to the news agenda
with regular press releases and media
briefings.
Recent topics have included:

3G/UMTS family welcomes its 500
millionth customer

Anatel opens up 2.6GHz for mobile
broadband in Brazil
ITU decision marks 4G milestone

A billion connected devices by
2016, predicts UMTS Forum

33x growth in mobile traffic over
next decade, predicts UMTS Forum
One Billion Connected Devices by 2016 -
Coverage

Press release issued 22 October 2010
at the ITU-R WP5D China meeting
PR statement on LTE-Advanced designation as
4G mobile wireless broadband technology
Supports 3GPP contribution to IMT-Advanced process
As proposed by the 3GPP
Partners, LTE-Advanced is
the next iteration in a
continuum of wireless
standardisation at a global
level that spans almost three
decades.
For more information
www.umts-forum.org
twitter.com/umtsforum