2 Annual Latam Fixed Income: March 2014
2 Annual Latam Fixed Income: March 2014
2 Annual Latam Fixed Income: March 2014
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
1 2 3
Agenda
Financial Highlights
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination Main Figures 2013
Pulp capacity
million tons
Net revenues
Total area (1) Planted area(1)
Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Trs Lagoas Jacare Santos
R$ billion
thousand hectares thousand hectares R$ billion X X
Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2) Net Debt/EBITDA (in Reais)
Port Terminal
Pulp Unit
Source: Fibria (1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and excluding the forest base linked to the sale of forest assets in Southern Bahia State and Losango. (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.
4Q13 Results
Pulp Production and Sales (000 t)
1,510 1,347 1,301
1,370
1,358
Record
1,958
4Q12
3Q13
Production Sales
4Q12
3Q13
4Q13
4Q12
3Q13
4Q13
Indebtness
Net Debt (Million)
Net Debt/EBITDA (R$) Net Debt/EBITDA (US$)
2.8
2.5
2.6 7,849 6,946 2.3 10,768 5,269 9,487 4,254 - 21% 9,773 4,172
- 34%
3,790
3,695
3,351
2,965 Dec/13
(Pro forma)
3,482
After Bond 2020 Repurchase
Dec/12
Sep/13
R$
Dec/13
US$
Dec/12
Sep/13
R$ US$
Dec/13
1,924 2,169
903 1,471
1,256
Liquidity
(1) (2)
2014
2015
Pre-Payment
2016
BNDES
2017
ECN
2018
2019
2020
Finnvera
2021
Bond
2022
Does not consider the reclassification of the bond 2020 to the short term. Pending payment related to the land sale.
5.2
4.8 3.9 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.9 4.5 4.7 4.7
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
3.4 3.1
3.7 3.3
2.9
2.4
Sep/10
Dec/10
Mar/11
Jun/11
Sep/11
Dec/11
Mar/12
Jun/12
Sep/12
Dec/12
Mar/13
Jun/13
Sep/13
Dec/13
Dec/14
Ratings
Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano
S&P
Moodys Fitch
BB+/Stable
Ba1/Positive BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
Baa3/Negative BBB/Stable
BBB-/Stable
Baa3/Negative BBB+/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BB/Negative
Ba2/Stable BB-/Positive
(1)
2014 projection by Citibank. | Source: Bloomberg | Estimates in BRL for Fibria, Klabin, Suzano and in USD for Arauco and CMPC
810
Excluding the non-recurring effects , profit would reached approximately R$ 323 million at 4Q13.
823
(444)
(5)
(185) (32)
Adjusted EBITDA
Rev. (Exp.) Debt Exchange non-recurring / Variation / non-cash MtM Hedge Debt
MtM
Operational Hedge
Net Interest
IR/CS
Other (1)
Non-recurring impacts
(1)
Include non-recurring expenses /non-cash, other exchange and currency variation and other financial incomes and expenditures.
2,796
1,268
Adjusted EBITDA
Capex
Net Interest
Working Capital
IR/CS
Other
(1) Does not include: the capital gain on assets sales, Bonds repurchases and the tax payment (REFIS) over profit earnings abroad.
-149
-402 1Q11
FX(R$/US$)
Average 1.67 1.59 1.64
-12
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1.80
1.77
1.96
2.03
2.06
2.00
2.07
2.28
2.28
(1) Does not include: the capital gain on assets sales, Bonds repurchases and the tax payment (REFIS) over profit earnings abroad.
11
Fibria delivers one of the highest EBITDA/t and FCF/t of the industry
56
(248) (-88)
Adjusted EBITDA Capex Net Interest Working Capital
244 (6)
(8)
IR/CS
Other
12
2.16
844
810
751
791
562
EBITDA Margin
40% 34%
36%
40%
29%
1,522
2009 (1)
2010 (1)
2011 (1)
2012
2013
13
1,078
2011
2012
2013
Inflation
FX Rate
Modernization
Others
2014E
14
Cash Production Cost saw an increase of 17% over the past 5 years
Target to have the cash cost increase below inflation Wood costs will represent the main impact Non recurring increase mainly due to third party wood Operating excellence actions focused on keeping cash cost below inflation In 2015 the wood impact will be structurally eliminated
432
2009 (2)
2010 (2)
2011
2012
2013
15
2018
16
Fibria is seeking value creation for its shareholders with capital discipline
PULP
- Growth with discipline - Best portfolio of projects
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION ?
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
-
Portocel
Land and forest
17
Today, according to public information, there will be a 9% increase of the market pulp capacity between 2013 and 2015
SOFTWOOD(1)
25.0 MT
HARDWOOD(1) 30.3 MT
Net: (0.2) mt
Net: 5.1 mt
Net: 4.9 mt
(1) Source: PPPC Special Research Note November 2013 does not include Sulphite and UKP (2) Projects included: Ilim Group (490kt)| Closures: Resolute Forest (75kt) ; Domtar (125kt) ; Rayonier (280kt); Sodra Tofte (240kt) (3) Projects included: Eldorado (1.5 mt); UPM Fray Bentos (100kt); Maranho (1.5mt); Montes del Plata (1.3 mt); Oji Nantong (700kt); Guaba II (1.3 mt) | Closures: Jari (410kt); Cellulose du Maroc (140kt); Ilim Group (100kt); Double A (85kt); Sappi Cloquet (270kt); Sodra Tofte (180kt); April Rizhao (130kt)
19
Pulp Market
Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp (1)
2013 vs. 2012
23%
60 50 40 30
12% 6%
-37kt +844kt +196kt
20 10 0
+674kt
-1%
Western Europe
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Total
(1)
North America
Per region
North America 28% Europe 39% Asia 25% Others 9%
Tissue 53%
Gap NBSK/BHKP
(1)
Average Spread
NBSK
BHKP
Specialty 17%
Source: FOEX
20
MAIN PROJECTS
Capacity 1.3Mt 1.3 Mt 1.5 Mt 1.75 Mt 1.5 Mt -2.0 Mt Timing 1Q2014 2Q2015 2Q2016 Fiber BEKP BEKP BEKP/ BSKP/Fluff BEKP BHKP Status Confirmed Confirmed Confirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed
2000
4000
6000
Fibria APRIL Arauco CMPC Georgia Pacific UPM-Kymmene Paper Excellence Metsa Group Suzano Stora Enso Sodra Weyerhaeuser IP Ilim Mercer Domtar Resolute Forest Eldorado ENCE Canfor
Arauco / Stora CMPC Guaba II Klabin Paran Fibria Trs Lagoas II APP South Sumatra
Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP) Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP) Mechanical
Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis
21
-85
-105
-600
-800 -1000 -1200 -1400
2006 2007
-540
-500
-910
-1180 -1260
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-1200
2013-2015E
22
Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
APP Hainan Nueva Aldea Santa F Valdivia Fray Bentos Mucuri Veracel
Rizhao
Chenming Zhanjiang
3,000
STRONG
2013/IQ
STRONG
2,500
Aracruz
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
Weighted average capacity 503 000 t/a
500
500
30
WEAK
25
Closures
Grade Switch
24
Total delivered cash cost will also have an influence on bottom prices
Capacity (k tons):
1,125
660
1,700 570
355
565 690
2,045 2,430
365
= 30,300
592
134 58 76 55 52 57
546
81 97 41 475 449 426 403 62 359 56 324
26 41 115
Working Capital Interest CAPEX
71 301
59 308
88 262
6 55
Others
SG&A
69 234
Delivery (US$/t)
Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, December 2013) | Fibrias 2013 considering a FX of R$/US$2.16.
25
Total
4,470
3,587
2,818
1,753
12,628
26
24.3
25 Growth Potential
11.1 6.3
20
15 10
14.8
14.6
6.1
5
0
1991 1996 2001 2006 E.Europe Asia FE 2009 2010 2011 2012 N.America Japan W.Europe China L.America Oceania Middle East Africa
W. Europe
Oceania
Japan
E. Europe
China
N. America
L. America
N&M East
27
28
Different from other commodities, China accounts for 26% of hardwood demand compared to around 60% in other basic materials sectors
Chinas Market Share of Market Pulp Shipments (%)(1)
8,000 26% 25% 6,000 21% 18% 4,000 14% 2,000 12% 17% 15% 16% 26% 20% 19% 26% 25% 26%
15%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Eucalyptus ('000 t)
Hardwood ('000 t)
29
Europe
20% 47%
North America
1%
3%
33%
96%
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Asia
North America
35% 21%
Europe
Asia
Others
44%
Fibrias sales delivered to the least volatile consumer markets (tissue) which brings stability to sales volume. Fibria has a low dependence on China (less than 20% of total sales volume).
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Final Remarks
Valor 1000 Company of the year, among all industries, according to Valor Econmico.
The Best Companies to the Shareholders Prize of Capital Aberto Magazine XVII ANEFAC-FIPECAFI - SERASA EXPERIAN Prize Fibria is among the most transparent public companies in Brazil, recognized for the quality of its 2012 financial statements. Fibria was elected as 2nd place. The prize highlights the business profitability, share profitability, liquidity, corporate governance and sustainability.
CDP Brasil 100 Climate Change 2013 Report Fibria was selected as one of the 10 best companies in transparency. The only one in the pulp & paper sector.
poca Negcios 360 Fibria was elected as 1st place in the pulp & paper sector in the corporate governance and future's vision categories
32
Acknowledgments in Sustainability
DJSI World and DJSI Emerging Markets
Selected to Dow Jones World and Emerging Markets Sustainability Indices for 2013/14 as the industry leader of Forestry Resources and Paper sector.
33
Investor Relations
E-mail: ir@fibria.com.br Phone: +55 11 2138-4565 Website: www.fibria.com.br/ir
THANK YOU
Back up
Leadership Position
Industry Outlook(1)
Fiber Consumption 403 million t
60%
Integrated Mills 84 million t
40%
Market Pulp 55 million t
29%
Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Special Research Note - November 2013 Hawkins Wright Outlook for Market Pulp, January 2013
36
117,611
114,507
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
37,474
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Developed Markets Emerging Markets
Source: RISI
37
Demand growth rate 000 ton 1996 2006 2016 Growth 19962006
56% 106% 35%
Growth 20072016
27% 67% 7%
Hardwood
Softwood
Source: PPPC
38
Pg.
Slide
Pg.
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 38
Slide
Supply structural changes puts pressure on the industry Capacity closures DO happen Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry Total delivered cash cost will also have an influence on bottom prices China: Paper capacities expansion continues to go on Strong internal consumption will drive tissue demand in China Internal Consumption and Urbanization Different from other commodities, China accounts for 26% of hardwood demand compared to around 60% in other basic materials sectors Fibrias Commercial Strategy Final Remarks Acknowledgments in Governance, Transparency and Profitability Acknowledgments in Sustainability Back up Leadership Position Global Paper Consumption Global Market Pulp Demand
4 Financial Highlights 5 A winning player 6 4Q13 Results 7 Indebtness 8 Fibria delivered the most significant leverage reduction in the LTM 9 Net Results (R$ million) 4Q13 10 Free cash flow generation(1) (R$ million) - 2013 11 Positive Free Cash Flow (1) (R$ million) Fibria delivers one of the highest EBITDA/t and FCF/t of the 12 industry 13 FX and Pulp Price explain 80% of Fibrias EBITDA Margin 14 Maintenance CAPEX (R$ Million) 15 Cash Production Cost saw an increase of 17% over the past 5 years 16 Fibrias tax structure 17 Fibria is seeking value creation for its shareholders with capital 18 Pulp and Paper Market Today, according to public information, there will be a 9% increase 19 of the market pulp capacity between 2013 and 2015 20 Pulp Market
39