FDL - L1
FDL - L1
FDL - L1
Fashion used to come from one source at a time, be it the streets, the runways or the entertainment business. The interesting thing about today is that influences come from high and low everything from couture to Target. Michael Kors.
Fashion Forecasting
Job Requirements
Employs 65 ppl and 25 agents worldwide Depends on intuitive insights from its creative team
Gardner (1995) compares fashion forecasting to chasing the future with a butterfly net. However! It is not difficult for those who immerse themselves in
Popular culture & Trade news.
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting Defined
Forecasters vary in the methods they use, but all are looking for an apparatus helps them to predict: Mood Behavior Buying habits of consumers
Forecasting Defined
Because trends signal the emerging needs, wants and aspirations of the consumer, canny manufacturers and retailers capitalize on their potential for turning a profit.
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting Is a creative process that can be understood practiced and applied (by anyone who has been introduced to the tools)
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting It provides a way for executives to expand their thinking about change, anticipate the future, and project the likely outcome.
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting Executives use forecasting as input for planning. Marketing managers position products in the marketplace using both:
Short term forecasts Long term forecasts
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting Planners of competitive strategies use forecasting techniques to look at the market share and the position of competitors in the marketplace.
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting Product developers, merchandisers and production managers use the short term trend forecasts of colour, textiles and style direction to shape collections.
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Visualization & Forecasting In the narrowest sense, forecasting attempts to project past trends into the future.
Forecasting Defined
Visualization & Forecasting A trend is a transitory increase or decrease
Some trends have lasted for millenia e.g. human population growth All trends have the potential to eventually slow down and decline.
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Visualization & Forecasting The mechanisms of fashion change work in the background to create patterns familiar to the most experienced fashion watchers. Visualization helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions.
Forecasting Defined
Visualization & Forecasting Three of the most familiar patterns are:
1. Fashion Curves 2. The Pendulum Swing 3. The Fashion Cycle
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Visualization & Forecasting - Fashion Curves Fashion trends are usually classified by the duration and penetration, within the context of time and consumer adoption.
Forecasting Defined
Visualization & Forecasting - Fashion Curves In this way it is easy to show differences between the shortest trends (fads), and the longest (classics).
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Visualization & Forecasting Pendulum Swing Refers to the periodic movement of fashion between extremes Examples
Fluctuations between long and short hemlines Fitted and oversized silhouettes Dressed up and casual looks (Swing from power dressing of the late 1980s to the relaxed dresscode of the early noughties)
Forecasting Defined
Visualization & Forecasting Fashion Cycles Usually cycles have a fixed, regular periodicity. However variations in length and depth of cycles make the term a misnomer. No fixed, regularly recurring cycles have been identified and used to accurately predict the next cycle in business or fashion.
Forecasting Defined
Visualization & Forecasting Fashion Cycles Instead, it is more accurate to call recurring patterns a longwave phenomena Long Wave refers to any entity (e.g. prices or styles) with movement that rises and falls with differences in duration and magnitude, velocity, and momentum across periods. This wave model is reflective of movement in social spheres, including fashion.
Forecasting Defined
Steps in Developing a Forecast Forecasting consists of tools and techniques applied systematically Steps in developing a forecast are
i. Step 1: Identifying the basic facts about past trends and forecasts. ii. Step 2: Determine the causes of change in the past iii. Step 3: Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behaviour
Forecasting Defined
Steps in Developing a Forecast Steps in developing a forecast are
i. Step 4: Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future ii. Step 5: Apply forecasting tools and techniques, paying attention to issues of accuracy and reliability iii. Step 6: Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations iv. Step 7: Revise the forecast when necessary
Forecasting Defined
Steps in Developing a Forecast A trend forecast should identify:
The source Underlying pattern Direction Tempo of the trend
Forecasting Defined
Steps in Developing a Forecast The most valuable currencies in todays competitive climate are information and learning. Information is easy to find but difficult to sift, frame, and integrate so that learning can take place.
Forecasting Defined
Steps in Developing a Forecast Forecasting is the process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place.
Forecasting Specialities
Forecasting is more than just attending runway shows and picking out potential trends that can be knocked off at lower prices. It is a process that spans shifts in colour and styles, changes in lifestyles and buying patterns and different ways of doing business.
Forecasting Specialties
There is a process of negotiation between the fashion industry and the consumer and between the various segments in the supplyside chain.
Forecasting Specialties
Beware of tunnel vision: which reduces the flexibility that is so essential for decision making under conditions of high velocity change.
Forecasting Specialties
All apparel executives share the same problem:
how to make the right product, introduce it at the right time, distribute it at the right channels, and capture the attention of the right consumers.
Forecasting Specialties
When specialist talk to each other or talk to others in technical jargon, then the chance to collaborate on solutions is squandered.
Forecasting Specialties
Long term forecasting (5 years or more)
Provides a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organizations direction and development. A compelling vision draws people toward a preferred future.
Forecasting Specialties
Short term forecasting (more than one year ahead) Involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and revisions as circumstances dictate.
Forecasting Specialties
Forecasting keeps the momentum going because it forces a perspective of the future on the day to day business decisions. Decisions are supported by past experience fashion history, sales history and traditional ways of doing business.
Forecasting Specialties
Environmental scanning opens that window on the future. Executives gather useful external information when they
scan a daily newspaper, watch TV news, listen to the radio while commuting to work, and chat with people at a dinner party.
Forecasting Specialties
Future Probes Forecasts
Fashion Scan
Fashion Analysis
Trend Analysis
Combined Forecast
Competitive Analysis
Present
Future
Fashion Forecasting requires a balanced view that seeks out the newest styles breaking on the cultural edge (Fashion Scan) and the reality of changing demographics, identifies the fad and the long wave of change.
Forecasting Specialities
Fashion Scan Fashion professionals follow latest fashion news in order to spot Emerging fashion trends Emerging lifestyle trends
Forecasting Specialities
Fashion Scan Specialists (whether forecasters or apparel executives) focus on: Colour Textiles Style forecasting Each of which works on its own schedule, internal logic and insider expertise.
Forecasting Specialities
Fashion Scan
Environment trend scans include:
Travelling to fashion capitals and to other trendsetting spots to observe first hand Scanning print, broadcast and online sources for clues Networking with people in creative fields such as arts, architecture, interior design, cosmetics and entertainment.
Forecasting Specialities
Consumer Scan
Consumer segmentation
Identify clusters of people who share characteristics also exhibit similar consumption behaviours. Cluster usually share some combination of demographics, lifestyles, attitudes and behaviour.
Forecasting Specialities
Consumer Scan
Consumer research
Various data gathering methods (focus groups, surveys, observation etc.) used to uncover/ explore consumer preferences and behaviour.
Consumer Scan
By linking subsegments with
Forecasting Specialities
price points brands, Shopping behaviour Style preferences Executives can determine which consumers are likely to respond to the companys offerings i.e. the Target Market
Forecasting Specialities
Consumer Scan Consumer research is crucial to fashion forecasting. While POS data tells what sold, when and at what price; it cannot explain for example: Why purchase was made Why consumers needs, wants and desires went unmet by the available assortment
Forecasting Specialities
Consumer Scan Insights provided by research aids in the development of short-term forecasts that guide Product development Merchandising Marketing Promotion
Fashion Analysis Fashion and Consumer Scans provide input for Fashion Analysis the process of putting together the puzzle of what is likely to happen next. Fashion is really a dialogue between the creative industries (fashion, interior design, art, entertainment) who propose innovations and the consumers, who decide what to adopt or reject.
Forecasting Specialities
Forecasting Specialities
Social and Economic Trends
The shift to a casual lifestyle and a consumer resistant to following trends are manifestations of deep cultural changes in society. Fashion forecasting requires a wide scan to encompass the impact of the following issues on consumer preferences and spending
Cultural Economic Technological Political
Forecasting Specialities
Social and Economic Trends
Some forecasters/ firms focus especially on largescale shifts in cultural indicators (aka Megatrends) Megatrends cross industry lines because they:
involve shifts in lifestyles, Reflect changes in generational cohorts Mirror cycles in the economy
Forecasting Specialities
Trend Analysis
Using fashion and consumer scans, along with the identification of social and economic trends, Trend Analysis detects short and long-term trends that affect business prospects. Trend analysis looks at the interaction of shifts in fashion, consumer lifestyles and culture.
Forecasting Specialities
Trend Analysis
Trends start as experimentation, self-expression and reactions to changing circumstances. Many vanish almost as soon as they are created but some gain adherents and build momentum.
Forecasting Specialities
Trend Analysis
When they are recognized by the gatekeepers of fashion (designers, journalists, merchants, forecasters) the trends start to appear in media coverage.
Forecasting Specialities
Competitive Analysis
To be competitive in such a business environment, companies must observe the plans and capabilities of competing firms through the regular tracking of key information. This allows a company to benchmark its activities and develop what if scenarios based on current information about competitor initiatives.
Competitive Analysis
Forecasting Specialities
Information very useful for new businesses especially in the start up stage and helps established businesses scout new markets
Forecasting Specialities
Competitive Analysis
It has to be a continuous, long term project using research and analysis strategies similar to those used in other types of forecasting.
Media not only report on the culture, they are shaped by it. Watching network tv for example was all important until the coming of cable, startup networks, the Web, video games, and computer games pushed the networks off the cultural front burner.
What factors should the forecaster monitor? What external factors shape the spirit of the times? Nystrom (1928) attempted to list factors that guide and influence the character and direction of fashion.
Dominating Ideals
Groups themselves would have changed, the criteria still applied to todays culture.
Dominating Attitude
Dominating Technology