FTTX 2012: Markets & Trends Facts & Figures
FTTX 2012: Markets & Trends Facts & Figures
FTTX 2012: Markets & Trends Facts & Figures
FTTx 2012
Markets & Trends Facts & Figures
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Table of contents
1. FTTx markets as of mid-2011 ........................................................................................... 4 1.1 Development status of the global FTTx market as of mid-2011 ................................. 4 1.2 Asia: China poised to take the lead ............................................................................. 6 1.3 Europe: rollouts still the top priority ............................................................................. 7 1.4 The United States: only significant FTTx market in the Americas .............................. 8 1.5 Africa-Middle East region: still in the very early stages of development ..................... 9 2. FTTx Equipment: vendor dynamics .............................................................................. 10 2.1 Main FTTx equipment market influences in 2010 ..................................................... 10 2.2 Positioning of FTTx equipment providers in 2010 ..................................................... 11 3. FTTx Survey ..................................................................................................................... 13 4. Cable Operators and Very High-Speed Broadband ..................................................... 16 4.1 American Cablecos: an Unmatched Potential ........................................................... 16 4.2 Europe: Key Players in the Development of VHSB ................................................... 17 4.3 Cablecos vs. Telcos, Who Will Dominate the VHSB Market? .................................. 17 5. Strategies of Leading FTTx Operators .......................................................................... 19 5.1 Ultrafast BB technical strategies ............................................................................... 19 5.2 Ultrafast BB player pricing strategies ........................................................................ 19 5.3 Ultrafast BB player service strategies ....................................................................... 20 5.4 FTTx players and national programmes ................................................................... 22 5.5 The primary Ultrafast BB business models ............................................................... 22
FTTx 2012
The ultra-fast broadband access market (FTTH/B and VDSL combined) is expected to grow steadily in the coming years, to reach 198 million subscribers around the globe by 2015. Naturally, the rate of progress will not be the same across the board, as each national market will be shaped by the countrys intrinsic features and its players. Against a backdrop of pioneer rollouts and recent announcements, several questions emerge on the topic of FTTx: How is the FTTx market segmented (public vs private initiatives, telcos vs utilities)? At what pace will FTTx networks be deployed, and using which technologies? What strategies will the different players employ post-rollout to enhance migration from broadband to FTTx? What regulatory measures could impede operators investments? What impact will FTTH have on the current broadband market and competition? Which role are cable operators playing and how are they positioning themselves on the market? In this new edition of our FTTx yearbook, you will find valuable data on the central components of the Ultra Broadband world, along with analyses from IDATEs experts and a comprehensive round-up of the highlights of the year gone by: FTTx markets as of mid-2011 FTTx Equipment: vendor dynamics FTTx Survey Cable-Operators and Very High-Speed Broadband Strategies of leading FFTx operators
An analysis of the figures for the first half of 2011 reveal a certain levelling off of the global ultra-fast broadband markets growth momentum. The strong increase in FTTx subscriber numbers during the previous six months could be attributed mainly to the Chinese market whose carriers released more information on actual penetration levels for their superfast broadband offers. The increase in the number of homes passed is once again higher than the increase in actual subscribers, which confirms that rollouts continue to be a priority for a great many players, as they anticipate a massive uptick in demand further down the road. This is true around the globe, although situations do vary from country to country.
The term FTTx encompasses FTTH, FTTB, FTTN+VDSL, FTTLA and FTTX+LAN connections.
China has consolidated its number two spot behind Japan (if we discount the countrys FTTx + LAN subscribers). There is nevertheless a real gap in the two countries growth rates for December 2010 to June 2011 which stand at 14% and 5% for China and Japan, respectively. If this trend continues, it will not take long to have an impact on global rankings and we can expect to see China overtake Japan for top spot in the not too distant future. Russia continues to be the biggest FTTH/B market in Europe, with close to 5.2 million FTTH/B subscribers as of mid-2011. Sweden is still in the top 10 but its figures have progressed very little from six months earlier. France has been making real strides but ISPs there are still having trouble persuading broadband customers to switch to FTTH/B, and penetration rates (i.e. percentage of homes passed that actually subscribe) are still low. Meanwhile, in the rest of Europe, the countries in the East and West will soon fall behind developing nations which have much greater potential for growth. The top 10 ranking for the biggest FTTH/B subscriber bases as of June 2011 is therefore very similar to the one for the end of 2010 the only notable change being the fact that India has pulled ahead of Sweden.
Figure 1: Distribution of FTTH/B subscribers around the world, June 2011
Source: IDATE
Looking at the top players, all types of new-generation network combined, Asian carriers still head up the rankings, occupying seven of the top 10 positions in terms of FTTx subscribers. Chinas two main carriers now occupy the top two spots ahead of Japans longstanding market leader, NTT and they are expected to widen their lead in the coming months thanks to their rollout plans, and the fact that NTTs subscriber base is not expected to grow that much further. The Asian market is especially disparate: China is experiencing a massive growth spurt while other markets are levelling off. Plus, a few carriers are even having to contend with losing their ultra-fast broadband customers to the competition a prime example being SK Broadband in South Korea, whose subscriber numbers shrank by a whopping 14% during the first half of 2011. Meanwhile telcos in the US, and especially AT&T, continue to enjoy steady growth and have been able to strengthen their position in the internet market with respect to cable companies which are gradually upgrading to DOCSIS 3.0. Over in Europe, only Russias ER Telecom has made it into the top 10 rankings coming in at number eight.
Figure 2:
CAGR: 40%
40 000 000 30 000 000 20 000 000 10 000 000 0 25 533 600 28 312 300 30 694 800 45 897 932
49 482 919
June 2009
Dec 2009
June 2010
Dec2010
June 2011
Source: IDATE
Accounting for more than 73% of the worlds FTTH/B subscribers, Asia has a substantial lead, added to which the growth potential in China and India ensure that this lead will endure even if FTTH/B subscriber numbers are expected to rise significantly in other regions as well. Asias dominance can clearly be attributed to the leadership of Chinese players. Aside from NTT and its 15.4 million FTTH/B subscribers, Chinese carriers are increasingly active in this market, even if they are not all employing exactly the same type of network. FTTB continues to be the main network configuration deployed in the region, and is tending to replace DSL and cable modem services. In Taiwan, for instance, 37% of broadband subscribers have already chosen a fibre service over DSL or cable, as have 42% of customers in Hong Kong, 60% in Japan and 58% in South Korea.
Figure 3:
FTTH/B subscribers share of the total broadband base in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea as of June 2011
Source: IDATE
Source: IDATE
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The growth of Europes FTTH/B market is being sustained mainly by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Russia in particular is a market that has grown tremendously in recent months, thanks in large part to initiatives from ER Telecom and Vimpelcom/Beeline. These two players are deploying their FTTB infrastructure in the countrys biggest cities, in addition to performing rollouts in a great many apartment buildings. Meanwhile, Svyazinvest has opted for an FTTH configuration which it is deploying through its regional carriers. Thanks to their involvement, these operators have been the chief driving forces behind the FTTH/B markets development in Eastern Europe, which has resulted in the region having more FTTx 3 subscribers than Western Europe since the end of 2009 . All of this is expected to boost Eastern Europes contribution to the ultra-fast broadband market as a whole, thanks to economic and demographic circumstances that are favourable to new-generation access technologies: namely low civil engineering costs and populations that are concentrated in apartment buildings. Over in Western Europe, Sweden remains the largest FTTH/B market (625,000 subscribers) but will likely soon be rivalled by countries like France where subscriber numbers are growing very slowly (556,000 subscribers in France in June 2011) but where the outlook for rollouts does seem to point to quite solid growth prospects. Other countries are trailing behind in the area of FTTH/B, not least the UK. The choices being made by players in the UK is expected to prolong the trend, with BT having opted to step up its FTTC+VDSL deployments while chief rival Virgin Media relies on a cable + DOCSIS 3.0 infrastructure.
1.4 The United States: only significant FTTx market in the Americas
The United States is still the worlds third largest FTTx market, behind Japan and China, with 11.4 million subscribers as of mid-2011. The FTTx market there continues to be dominated by two national carriers, Verizon and AT&T, with the latter reporting a much higher rate of increase in subscribers to its U-Verse offer in the first half of 2011, which is the opposite of what we saw in the previous six months. AT&T, which has opted for an FTTN+VDSL configuration, also has stronger growth potential than its rivals. Both are chasing the same objective, however: to better compete with the cable companies that dominate the American broadband market by offering services built around innovative TV and video solutions. Alongside AT&T and Verizon, more and more players are becoming involved in superfast broadband rollouts in the United States. Also, some cities and local authorities have been awarded government subsidies under the national Broadband Stimulus programme to deploy broadband and superfast broadband infrastructures, and more and more FTTx rollout projects have got underway. In the vast majority of cases, the deployed networks will be open access systems, like the ones found in Scandinavia. The goal is clearly to increase broadband and superfast broadband coverage across those parts of the country, and especially in rural areas, which are not being targeted by private ISPs. The situation in neighbouring countries and in Latin America is very different.
Taking into account adjusted data for Russia and incorporating into FTTH/B numbers customers previously considered FTTx subscribers.
Canadas FTTx market has not seen any major developments over the past several months. A few players, such as Bell Alliant, are announcing FTTH rollouts but still only on a small scale. Most of the ISPs involved in providing ultra-fast broadband are relying on FTTN+VDSL configurations (Telus, Bell) while a few cable companies (Shaw) are upgrading their infrastructure by switching to DOCSIS 3.0 and deploying optical fibre further and further down the network. Meanwhile Latin America is still largely preoccupied with ensuring that the entire population has access to broadband services which has become a core objective for most South American governments. Some operators have revealed plans to deploy optical fibre networks, and there have been a handful of trials. Other players are performing smaller scale FTTx network rollouts in Chile, Uruguay and Costa Rica, but no large-scale ones were really underway as of mid-2011.
1.5 Africa-Middle East region: still in the very early stages of development
FTTH/B subscribers in Africa and the Middle East accounted for less than 1% of the globes entire base in June 2011. The development of FTTx is by no means a top priority in the region, given that regular broadband is still far from being widely available. One country does stand out, however, for the strong involvement and proactive stance being taken by its operators who clearly see FTTH/B as a core source of future growth, namely the United Arab Emirates. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia all have a degree of potential, although most rollouts are concentrated in new buildings and it will be several months before they see a massive influx of customers. Lastly, VDSL is not very widely used in the Middle East but it has been deployed in Israel by incumbent carrier, Bezeq. Bezeq has announced an ambitious rollout project between now and 2013, by which time it hopes to have passed all of the countrys households. Africa too continues to lag well behind in the FTTx market. As in South America, firstgeneration broadband is still far from being fully available and other major works are bigger priorities than fibre network deployments. There have nevertheless been a handful of announcements that show that carriers there are aware that they will eventually have to take up the ultra-fast broadband mantel at some point in the future.
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Motorola 1.7% Ericsson 2.9% Dasan 3.2% Alcatel-Lucent 3.6% Mitsubishi 4.1% Sumitomo 5.2% FiberHome 7.7%
Huaw ei 35.5%
ZTE 23.7%
Source: IDATE
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Source: IDATE Table 3: Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 Top Five ONT/ONU PON vendors for FY 2010 Global Huawei ZTE FiberHome Mitsubishi Alcatel-Lucent APAC Huawei ZTE FiberHome Mitsubishi Sumitomo EMEA Huawei Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson ZTE North America Alcatel-Lucent Motorola Tellabs Ericsson -
Source: IDATE
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3. FTTx Survey
To deepen our understanding of the current mechanisms, drivers and obstacles that are shaping the rate at which residential users are switching to ultra-fast broadband, IDATE has achieved an exclusive international survey in four countries with varying degrees of maturity, namely France, Sweden, the United States and Japan: France lags behind in terms of both coverage and penetration, which stood at 21% and 8%, respectively, at the end of 2010. Roughly 40% penetration in Japan, Sweden and the United States, and corresponding coverage of between 30% and 90% of the population.
Figure 6: Ultra-fast broadband coverage and penetration at the end of 2010,
by country 100% 50% 0% France Sweden USA Japan Superfast broadband coverage (i.e. homes passed/total households) Superfast broadband penetration among Internet households Superfast broadband take-up among homes passed
Source: IDATE, Ultra-fast broadband survey, 2011
France stands out among the four countries studied in this survey for having all four of its top broadband providers involved. All are concentrating their early efforts on the countrys most densely populated areas, which have the greatest commercial potential and where rollouts are cheaper to perform than in rural areas due to the higher density of the population and the large number of apartment buildings. As a result, only 21% of households were actually covered for ultra-fast broadband at the end of 2010. Among the other countries examined, Japan boasts virtually full coverage, while Sweden and the United States are between the two, reporting between 32% and 43% coverage of households. At the end of 2010, the percentage of homes passed that actually subscribed to an ultra-fast broadband service stood at 8% in France, which is well below the 39% to 43% we find in the other countries. It should nevertheless be pointed out that this is in part due to the fact that rollouts in France began only three years ago, as opposed to ten years ago in the other countries being examined. The following trends can be extracted from the surveys results: The most significant variables are tied more to location (degree of urbanization, type of housing) than to the features of the household (size, age, presence of children, etc.). Here, socio-economic criteria appear to have less of an impact on the likelihood of having an ultra-fast broadband connection than they did in the early days of the Web.
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Excess amount of equipment more in the realm of computers than TV/video among ultra-fast BB households, except in the United States where there tends to be an excess of all types of multimedia equipment. Notable variances in consumption levels for the most innovative applications in ultra-fast BB households (see graph below). Switchover driven by a desire for more bandwidth. Reasons cited for switching are tied either to uses (especially TV/video), or driven by an event or opportunity (arrival of ultra-fast broadband, moving house, special offers, etc.). Ultra-fast broadband households are no more proactive than regular broadband households. But it is only in the United States, and in Sweden to a lesser degree, that marketing currently plays significant role in persuading users to switch with 30% and 22% of ultra-fast broadband households having signed up as a result of a marketing campaign. Half of all subscribers change providers when switching to an ultra-fast solution, and this regardless of how mature the market is. The main obstacles to switching are clearly expected prices and users satisfaction with their existing connection. Both of which mean that providers need to step up their marketing efforts. But 60% of the non-ultra-fast broadband households polled say that switching to this new form of access is inevitable over the long term.
Figure 7:
Ultra-fast BB households
Top five uses of the Web that separate ultra-fast broadband households and other households
Ultra-fast BB households
France
Sweden
Japan
USA
Benefitting from the ubiquity of the internet in homes over the past 15 years, contrary to what we saw when the Web first appeared, early adopters of ultra-fast broadband do not have a distinctive socio-economic profile. The switch to a superfast connection appears to be driven more by opportunity than by class.
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Even if, when looking at equipment as a whole, there are not terribly strong statistical correlations between computer and multimedia equipment and the type of internet connection, it nevertheless emerged from the indicators established during our survey that, in all of the countries examined, ultra-fast broadband households have a larger number of computing devices than other internet households. The number of portable computing devices (i.e. laptops and/or tablets) was also higher in ultra-fast broadband households, but only in France and the United States. As for TV equipment levels, the average stands at two televisions per household with no particular distinction between ultra-fast broadband households and other internet households. Also, the switch to connected TVs is no further along in ultra-fast broadband households, except in the United States. Other multimedia devices (game consoles, webcams, security cameras, eReaders, etc.) are distributed more evenly between ultra-fast broadband and non ultra-fast broadband households, aside from connected game consoles and certain specific types of equipment (fewer webcams in Japan, more eReaders in the United States). Despite current obstacles to switching over that were identified in the survey, households are embracing ultra-fast broadband as an inevitable part of their future digital environment, with more than 60% stating their plans to upgrade in the more or less distant future.
Figure 8: Plans to switch to ultra-fast broadband, by country
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In addition, numerous municipal and local authorities have already deployed or are planning to deploy neutral and open VHSB networks enabling all their citizens to benefit from more sustainable and efficient offers. This represents another form of competition that cablecos will have to face in the medium term. The implementation of DOCSIS 3.0 and the extension of fibre optics in their networks is thus a logical evolution of cable networks. In the US, all major cablecos have adopted a VHSB strategy and now have a customer base to which they can offer new services. However, in spite of high coverage rates (number of households passed/total number of households), just like other VHSB players the US cablecos seem to be facing a relatively weak demand. Indeed, the actual number of subscribers with access over 50 Mbps is uncertain, cablecos censing all their high-speed Internet subscribers, regardless of the bandwidth level to which they have subscribed. The challenge is hence to weigh what VHSB really represents to US cablecos, even if this strategy seems to be inevitable in the medium or long run. In return, in order to enhance their infrastructures and expand revenue sources, several US cablecos are considering using their fibre optics networks for backhauling mobile networks, just like the telcos. This is for example the case of Cox Communications and Time Warner Cable.
4.3 Cablecos vs. Telcos, Who Will Dominate the VHSB Market?
With the acceleration of optical fibre deployments, initiated in recent months and with a considerable medium-term potential, the race for higher for bandwidth rates is probably far from over. Telcos need to make strategic choices in order to implement the technology that will convince more customers to migrate to very high-speed broadband, while devoting resources for risky investments whose durability remains to be demonstrated. Among the most sensitive decisions to make, that of which architecture to deploy remains fully relevant. Indeed, even if the FTTH/B is still seen as the most efficient architecture, several operators who have made this choice are starting to believe that FTTN + VDSL is just as suited in certain areas, while it allows significant savings.
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At any rate, the fact is that on those areas where cablecos and telcos enter in direct competition through the infrastructures they deploy, the telcos offering fibre optics-based plans including more TV and video services will have at least a stable, if not growing market share with respect to cablecos (see Verizon and AT&T in the US). For their part, cable operators derive considerable strengths from the networks they operate. The upgrade to very high-speed broadband may require high-speed fibre optics deployments, but the extension can be limited to intermediate access points upstream of the end user buildings. Associated with DOCSIS 3.0, this FTTLA architecture allows cablecos to rapidly upgrade their offers to 100 Mbps data rates or more, largely sufficient in the light of current download needs. On the upload side, however, cable networks are not yet up to level with fibre optics. As a result, the migration of subscribers to very high-speed broadband is not simpler than it is for a telco wishing to offer its services to a new building. The cablecos then need to adopt marketing and sales strategies tailored to encouraging customer migration. Several European cablecos seem about to meet this challenge: ONO in Spain was able to convince 15% of its broadband subscribers to sign a 100 Mbps offer, priced in triple play between EUR 70 and 76 per month. Virgin Media in the UK has seen its base of subscribers to data rates above 50 Mbps (GBP 25 to 35 per month for 50 to 100 Mbps) increase by 8% during the first quarter of 2011. Kabel Deutschland in Germany has significantly lowered the price of its 100 Mbps offer to bring it on par with a 32 Mbps offer (EUR 10 per month), which has had a direct impact on the number of subscriptions to the highest data rates (+20% in the first quarter of 2011). However, as experienced by Numericable in France, even offers with aggressive pricing, equivalent to normal broadband rates, are not always sufficient to induce systematic migration. Operators then need to consider bundling their offers with other types of services, perhaps related to installation and customer support, or why not also fee-based, aimed at simplifying migration in the eyes of the customers. Certain technical solutions comparable to 4 what the US cablecos are implementing directly within housing units is likely to present efficient new business arguments to customers. Finally, downstream of these technical and economic considerations, other issues arise, just as valid for telcos as for cable operators. In particular questions related to their positioning against the rise of Internet players, vectors of bandwidth-hungry video streams. The technical capacity of the infrastructures of cable operators, and particularly the fact that bandwidth is shared among users, can become a hindrance once the viewing mode will tend towards streaming, which seems to be already happening on the US market.
The MoCA (Multimedia over Coax Alliance) standard is a solution that allows the use of coaxial cables deployed inside the homes to interconnect various devices and transmit video streams.
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As a general rule, no matter the type of player, two pricing strategies emerge: The first strategy initially offers similar prices for both FTTX and ADSL services. This strategy results in faster migration from ADSL to FTTx, ensuring higher penetration faster. Generally, broadband offered on fibre optics remains low, leaving a little room to maneuver - at a later date - to increase prices based on increasing speed or availability to symmetrical access. These operators essentially set the price for value added services that they offer as options - from higher guaranteed speeds to content offers. However, not all operators opting for this strategy have a differentiated range of rates when rolling out an Ultrafast BB service. The second strategy clearly differentiates between the price of Ultrafast BB and regular broadband infrastructures when services are first rolled out. The objective of such a strategy is to upgrade FTTx networks to propose additional services, especially TV and video. Most often, this strategy is associated with a segmented service offer (for example Verizon FiOS below).
Figure 9: Price of triple play subscriptions by technology (December 2010)
(EUR/month)
Source: IDATE
Broadband Value
Most of the telecom operators and service providers have chosen to play in the Ultrafast BB market. Recently, some operators such as HKBN and Turkcell SuperOnline have released 1 Gbps offers for very different monthly subscriptions (from less than 20 EUR to 200 EUR respectively). Others, such as Trefor in Denmark, KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands and even Pronea in Norway, advertise their ability to sell symmetrical broadband. Magyar Telecom claims to offer guaranteed bandwidth of 40 Mbps for 32 EUR per month. Others offer relatively significant guaranteed bandwidth - NTT with its two offers of 50 and 100 Mbps or even Orange with its three triple play offers including a 100 Mbps connection (option for symmetrical 100 Mbps also available) - but few players offer services for which an FTTB/H connection is truly required.
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TV Service offer
Only a few players are focused on innovative services - mainly associated with video whose quality of service has improved due to connection performance. Note the American case where AT&T and Verizon, hoping to compete against the country's cable operators, use Ultrafast BB to offer enhanced TV and video than that available on DSL networks. The two operators have different strategies. AT&T favors an enhanced, personalized and interactive high definition TV experience, enhanced, personalized and interactive: a wide range of HD channels, a huge selection of optional channels and bouquets, extensive catalogue of content on demand, several interactive applications available on television, DVR offering advanced digital functionalities, etc. Its objective is to continuously offer innovative services, leading it to establish various partnerships with content providers. On the other hand, Verizon has developed an aggressive marketing approach over the years (door to door, service demonstrations during concerts, intensive advertising in underserved business regions, video game tournament sponsorship, etc.) to deliver Internet and television over fibre optic cable, responding to market demand and reducing churn by upgrading innovative services and targeting niche markets (sports, local TV, etc.). In Europe, FTTH connection performance is also advertised as providing better TV reception quality, especially for live broadcasts. SwissCom, for example, claims lower latency from IPTV over FTTH. Nevertheless, with the exception of the Americans and similar to triple play offers, the value of an FTTH TV offer has yet to be proven. The ability to have a multiscreen option for video conferencing on a television could represent a new source of revenue from FTTH access.
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5 - Replicating copper models Inevitably, the dominant operator invests in deploying fibre, using its market share in the broadband market and its construction management. Competing operators that opposed each other in the ADSL market are in a difficult spot: their ADSL (DSLAM) infrastructures are quickly depreciating in a poorly maintained network and their offers are worth than those based on fibre. In this situation, the regulator - finally ending a "regulatory vacation" that enables operators to invest as much as possible - reverts to the regulatory framework known in the copper network, if possible by trying to maintain "the level of investment": simple reselling, streaming, unbundling. All of these models may work, but any concrete statements reflect a combination of these scenarios. In addition, we could have also included in the list of business models the various changes in wireless broadband (WiFi, LTE, satellite) and in the evolution of market consolidation (fixedmobile integrated operators).
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The ultra-fast broadband access market (FTTH/B and VDSL combined) is expected to grow steadily in the coming years, to reach 198 million subscribers around the globe by 2015. Naturally, the rate of progress will not be the same across the board, as each national market will be shaped by the countrys intrinsic features and its players. Against a backdrop of pioneer rollouts and recent announcements, several questions emerge on the topic of FTTx: How is the FTTx market segmented (public vs private initiatives, telcos vs utilities)? At what pace will FTTx networks be deployed, and using which technologies? What strategies will the different players employ post-rollout to enhance migration from broadband to FTTx? What regulatory measures could impede operators investments? What impact will FTTH have on the current broadband market and competition? Which role are cable operators playing and how are they positioning themselves on the market? Our FTTx Watch Service is specifically designed to provide operators, vendors, government bodies, regulators and local authorities with a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market.
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