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    Speed Rating Hurdle System

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    The document analyzes speed ratings in National Hunt racing to find a profitable betting system. It finds that horses rated highly by Topspeed have higher strike rates and profits than unrated horses. Further analyzing top-rated horses that are the first or second favorite and run in hurdle races over 3 miles leads to a strike rate of 43.16% and profits of 29.46% over 4 years of data. Concentrating bets on these qualifiers provides an edge in using speed ratings to select National Hunt winners.

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    Speed Rating Hurdle System

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    The document analyzes speed ratings in National Hunt racing to find a profitable betting system. It finds that horses rated highly by Topspeed have higher strike rates and profits than unrated horses. Further analyzing top-rated horses that are the first or second favorite and run in hurdle races over 3 miles leads to a strike rate of 43.16% and profits of 29.46% over 4 years of data. Concentrating bets on these qualifiers provides an edge in using speed ratings to select National Hunt winners.

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    72. Speed Rating Hurdle System

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    The document analyzes speed ratings in National Hunt racing to find a profitable betting system. It finds that horses rated highly by Topspeed have higher strike rates and profits than unrated horses. Further analyzing top-rated horses that are the first or second favorite and run in hurdle races over 3 miles leads to a strike rate of 43.16% and profits of 29.46% over 4 years of data. Concentrating bets on these qualifiers provides an edge in using speed ratings to select National Hunt winners.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    150 views3 pages

    Speed Rating Hurdle System

    Uploaded by

    Float Kgb
    The document analyzes speed ratings in National Hunt racing to find a profitable betting system. It finds that horses rated highly by Topspeed have higher strike rates and profits than unrated horses. Further analyzing top-rated horses that are the first or second favorite and run in hurdle races over 3 miles leads to a strike rate of 43.16% and profits of 29.46% over 4 years of data. Concentrating bets on these qualifiers provides an edge in using speed ratings to select National Hunt winners.

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    of 3

    SPEED RATINGS HURDLE SYSTEM

    The use of the clock in National Hunt racing is a far less popular method for searching for winners than it is in flat racing, simply because of the many discrepancies with which the jumping code is burdened with (unreliable race distances, ultra-slow run races, unreliable standard times to name but a few). That is, however, not to say that profits cannot be made by using time as a guide. In fact, it could be argued that if an edge in this sphere could be found then it would probably prove profitable to follow for a longer time span than a similar system devised for flat racing would, due to the popularity of speedratings amongst punters on the latter code driving prices down taking away any value to be had. Well start by looking at all races over the last four NH seasons and the results of those runners rated/not rated by Topspeed (the Racing Posts very own speed rating figures)
    TOPSPEED WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

    Top-rated Not top-rated

    2917 10101

    12701 115876

    22.97 8.72

    -764.14 -35871.01

    -6.02 -30.96

    Immediately this tells us that Topspeeds top-rated runners should be given respect in National Hunt races. The LSP% loss of a little over 6% is highly commendable considering over 12 thousand races were involved, and of course there will undoubtedly have been plenty of no-hopers making up a percentage of the selections. Concentrating on these Topspeed top-rated horses, well analyse them further by looking at their starting prices. Its logical to presume that those towards the head of the market are going to be the ones producing the higher strike rates and higher profits, as many of the bigger priced selections will probably have been running under unsuitable conditions, hence their inflated prices

    SP position

    WINS

    RUNS

    STRIKE%

    LSP

    LSP%

    1st fav 2nd fav 3rd fav 4th fav 5th fav 6th fav

    1635 653 281 154 85 51

    4001 2566 1869 1371 934 663

    40.86 25.45 15.03 11.23 9.10 7.69

    -217.67 195.33 -195.12 -157.67 -69.50 -3.50

    -5.44 7.61 -10.44 -11.50 -7.44 -0.53

    7th fav 8th fav 9th fav 10th fav

    25 17 4 12

    419 310 182 386

    5.97 5.48 2.20 3.11

    -106.00 -17.00 -92.00 -101.00

    -25.30 -5.48 -50.55 -26.17

    No surprise then to see a gradual fall in strike rate % as the SP position rises. Its clear from the above stats that its the front two horses in the betting which we need to be concentrating, with just a small loss of 22.34 level stake points from over six and a half thousand bets. So have our first two rules; top-rated on Topspeed and either favourite or 2nd favourite in the betting. Next well analyse these qualifiers by examining the results from different race distances
    DISTANCE WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

    2m 2m 2f 2m 2.5f 3m > 3m 0.5f

    834 1082 372

    2427 3079 1061

    34.36 35.14 35.06

    -66.81 -9.28 53.75

    -2.75 -0.30 5.07

    Theres no denying over which distances the profit comes from although the strike rates are almost identical, clearly the shorter the trip, the more over bet the qualifiers are. Concentrating solely on those running in races over a distance of further than three miles returns a healthy 5.07 LSP%. Finally well look to see whether the race type has any bearing on results, as the pace of jumping hurdles differs somewhat to that of jumping fences
    OBSTACLE WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

    Chase Hurdle

    249 123

    776 285

    32.09 43.16

    -30.21 83.96

    -3.89 29.46

    Pretty conclusive proof there that hurdle races are the ones to concentrate on here. Not much of a surprise really as the pace in hurdle events is much stronger than in chases, as the horses can jump the smaller obstacles far more quickly than the bigger fences, and therefore speed ratings have more of an impact in hurdle races. So the final rules and results are as follows

    a) b) c) d)

    Topspeed top-rated horses only Horse must be either first or second SP favourite Only consider races longer than 3 miles in distance Hurdle races only
    WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

    YEAR

    2001 2002 2003 2004

    28 30 40 25

    77 66 76 66

    36.36 45.45 52.63 37.88

    18.99 15.53 37.32 12.12

    24.66 23.53 49.11 18.36

    TOTAL

    123

    285

    43.16

    83.96

    29.46

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