Daily Market Note: Equities
Daily Market Note: Equities
Daily Market Note: Equities
st
21 August 2012
Equities
Pressure Extends on the NSE
The bourse opened the week on a low key as all indices closed south. The NSE was down 6pts to close at 3,808 while the
NASI had a 23% decline to close at 83.48. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices decreased 1.05% and 0.95% respectively. Local investors
continued dominance in the market accounting for a whooping 71% with foreigners shifting tact to a net short position worth
Kes.1.5Mn. Bond Turnover however was up 50.92% to a turnover of 4.5Bn while Equity turnover bore the harsh brunt of the
market down 22% to Kes.336Mn.
Market Capitalisation was stable at Kes.1.1Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance
Top Traders
Equity
Volume
7,577,900
Safaricom Ltd
571,500
465,100
439,800
422,400
Gaining Stocks
Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
3.95
6.76
99.50
4.74
TPS EA Ltd
39.75
4.61
17.95
4.06
23.75
3.26
Losing Stocks
Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
43.00
-4.44
18.60
-3.73
7.30
-3.31
Trans-Century Ltd
24.00
-3.03
Centum Investments
11.65
-2.92
Index
NASI
Previous
Today
% change
83.67
83.48
-0.23%
NSE 20 Share
3814.10
3808.47
-0.15%
FTSE NSE 15
110.64
109.48
-1.05%
FTSE NSE 25
113.19
112.12
-0.95%
Source: NSE
% Change
1104.29
1101.79
-0.23%
434.55
336.11
-22.65%
15.39/84.61
71.89/28.11
N/A
14/17
18:20
N/A
2998.20
4525.00
50.92%
450.00
N/A
9.94%
N/A
th
August 2012
Buys (Kes)
187,680,907.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
Sales (Kes)
Buys (Kes)
179,978,332.50
Sales (Kes)
11,240,297.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
7,702,575.00
12,772,387.50
1,532,090.00
The Automobiles & Accessories Sector closed at the top spot up 1.95% buoyed by the performance of
Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) which gained 6.76% to close at a VWAP Kes.3.95. The Total Index was
buoyed by increasing prices in 5 segments to 0.14%.
The Investment segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.49% depressed by Trans-Century Ltd (NSE:
TCL) which shed 3.03% to close at a VWAP of Kes.24.00.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Sector
Constituents
1.95
1.02
0.87
0.77
0.20
Agricultural
-0.09
-0.52
Insurance
-0.61
Banking
10
-0.70
Investment
-1.49
Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
60
0.14
Company
Current
Price
Upside
Potential
Return to
Date
Recommendation
14.55
19.55
11.65
40.41%
-19.93%
BUY
15.80
19.90
21.00
-5.53%
32.91%
KenolKobil Limited
9.80
13.10
15.00
-14.50%
53.06%
26.50
45.50
32.25
29.12%
21.70%
EA Cables Ltd
11.80
14.55
10.25
29.55%
-13.14%
156.00
198.50
199.00
-0.25%
27.56%
88.50
123.40
99.50
19.37%
12.43%
18.50
27.10
25.50
5.90%
37.84%
7.20
17.25
15.10
12.46%
109.72%
HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
15.85
22.00
16.00
27.27%
0.95%
153.00
187.70
188.00
-0.16%
22.88%
4.00
6.25
5.65
9.60%
41.25%
11.55
18.50
10.90
41.08%
-5.63%
10.05
15.35
10.30
32.90%
2.49%
Scangroup Ltd
49.25
59.60
57.00
4.36%
15.74%
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
22.66%
Fixed Income:
2-Yr. T-Bond Sale Period Expires
Money Markets: The CBK remained relevant in the market to mop up Kes.14Bn in excess liquidity
through repos and TADs with the interbank rate marginally ascended to 8.069% from Fridays
close of 7.951%.
Primary Markets: This week the regulator intends to auction the 182-day T-Bill & 91-day T-bill on
22nd August and 23rd August respectively to raise an aggregate amount of Kes.8Bn. The sale
period of the 2-Yr Treasury Fixed Coupon Bond, FXD2/2012/2, closed today with the auction date
set for tomorrow, 22nd August 2012. Successful investors will obtain details of amounts payable
from CBK on the following day, 23rd August.
Secondary Markets: The fixed income market had a turnover increase of 50.92% to Kes.4.5Bn
driven by IFBs that transacted Kes.2.47Bn; 54.5% of total turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor
Kenya
Uganda
Tanzania
U.S
LIBOR (USD)
91 Day
10.27%
18.11%
13.06%
0.10%
0.46%
182 Day
11.37%
18.06%
13.53%
0.14%
0.74%
1 Year
12.85%
17.00%
13.54%
0.18%
1.07%
2 Year
13.83%
14.84%
14.77%
0.26%
--
5 Year
11.86%
15.39%
14.74%
0.62%
--
10 Year
12.71%
15.28%
14.99%
1.49%
--
USD/KES
GBP/KES
132.59
132.33
EUR/KES
104.14
104.53
ZAR/KES
10.07
10.18
KES/UGX
29.57
29.65
KES/TZS
18.66
18.78
1.51
1.52
27thJan 2012
30thJan 2012
Currency Pair
INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.
Large-Cap Index
Total
Shares Outstanding
Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.
Price Change
EPS
DPS
P/E
Dividend
Yield - %
40,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
571,500
0.00%
0.32
0.22
11.72
5.87%
790,774,356
181,087,327,524
389,700
-1.29%
9.30
8.75
24.62
3.82%
3,702,777,020
77,758,317,420
74,900
-2.33%
2.79
1.00
7.53
4.76%
5,431,536,000
76,041,504,000
422,400
0.00%
1.49
1.50
9.40
10.71%
362,959,275
64,969,710,225
48,400
2.87%
14.44
10.00
12.40
5.59%
287,077,133
57,128,349,467
1,500
-0.50%
19.75
11.00
10.08
5.53%
3,492,369,900
38,066,831,910
439,800
-1.36%
1.53
0.40
7.12
3.67%
2,950,259,818
75,231,625,359
7,577,900
0.99%
3.72
1.85
6.85
7.25%
2,198,361,456
18,356,318,158
64,000
-0.60%
0.94
0.50
8.88
5.99%
100,000,000
39,800,000,000
100
-0.50%
30.98
30.50
12.85
7.66%
157,118,572
29,538,291,536
2,600
0.00%
12.70
8.00
14.80
4.26%
273,684,211
11,768,421,073
35,100
-4.44%
5.99
0.00
7.18
0.00%
461,615,483
6,324,132,117
35,900
0.00%
3.58
0.25
3.83
1.82%
1,530,000,000
10,404,000,000
230,800
0.00%
1.26
0.50
5.40
7.35%
163,037,108
16,222,192,246
16,400
4.74%
13.58
1.70
7.33
1.71%
633,024,000
10,128,384,000
119,300
0.63%
2.16
0.45
7.41
2.81%
99,055,000
19,711,945,000
5,600
0.51%
11.63
2.00
17.11
1.01%
358,997,784
11,577,678,534
24,600
-3.73%
6.72
0.50
4.80
1.55%
894,115,028,569
10,060,500
-0.28%
7.94
4.40
9.96
4.52%
604,947,068
7,047,633,342
268,000
-2.92%
1.79
0.00
6.51
0.00%
1,471,761,200
22,076,418,000
215,000
0.00%
2.21
1.00
6.79
6.67%
284,789,128
16,232,980,296
15,000
1.79%
2.55
0.70
22.35
1.23%
280,000,000
5,208,000,000
7,577,900
2.48%
3.19
0.40
5.83
2.15%
90,000,000
5,040,000,000
0.00%
6.24
0.50
8.97
0.89%
148,210,640
5,891,372,940
600
4.61%
4.51
1.30
8.81
3.27%
54,450,000
9,256,500,000
100
1.80%
33.00
4.50
5.15
2.65%
582,709,440
7,866,577,440
0.00%
-0.31
0.00
-43.55
0.00%
600,000,000
6,180,000,000
112,600
-0.96%
3.19
0.35
3.23
3.40%
235,750,000
3,618,762,500
44,700
-2.85%
2.70
1.20
5.69
7.82%
175,028,706
3,141,765,273
6,600
4.06%
3.05
0.00
5.89
0.00%
33,980,265
4,111,612,065
500
0.83%
8.89
5.00
13.61
4.13%
96,000,000
3,432,000,000
138,500
0.00%
2.31
1.00
15.48
2.80%
253,125,000
2,594,531,250
5,700
0.49%
1.15
1.00
8.91
9.76%
208,084,296
988,400,406
13,000
-1.04%
0.53
0.00
8.96
0.00%
74,059,026
1,758,901,868
400
3.26%
2.96
0.00
8.02
0.00%
2,150,000,000
12,147,500,000
137,400
0.00%
-1.09
0.15
-5.18
2.65%
265,424,636
4,007,912,004
16,200
-0.98%
1.47
0.00
10.27
0.00%
273,950,284
6,574,806,816
100
-3.03%
1.23
0.25
19.51
1.04%
515,270,364
3,761,473,657
15,300
-3.31%
1.84
0.00
3.97
0.00%
228,055,500
2,588,429,925
4,000
1.34%
1.72
1.00
6.60
8.81%
19,525,446
2,167,324,506
6,700
0.00%
7.71
6.80
14.40
6.13%
135,692,902,287
8,578,300
0.31%
4.13
1.14
6.37
2.88%
1,099,452,452
400
6.76%
0.35
0.20
11.29
5.06%
8,756,320
2,110,273,120
300
-1.63%
93.74
57.50
2.57
23.86%
19,599,999
1,479,799,925
300
0.67%
28.06
3.75
2.69
4.97%
60,000,000
1,017,000,000
3,300
-0.29%
7.79
1.10
2.18
6.49%
22,279,616
534,710,784
1,900
1.05%
7.78
0.55
3.08
2.29%
75,708,873
969,073,574
6,500
0.00%
3.57
0.75
3.59
5.86%
23,727,000
824,513,250
8,800
0.00%
5.44
1.25
6.39
3.60%
210,000,000
388,500,000
177,300
2.78%
-0.59
-3.14
0.00%
16,078,500
884,317,500
500
0.00%
1.36
1.25
40.44
2.27%
5,728,314
1,661,211,060
268,000
0.00%
6.12
4.00
47.39
1.38%
58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440
1,050,075,000
528,120,000
9,154,384,848
500
200
465,100
-0.84%
-0.74%
-1.18%
2.33
19.93
0.27
1.50
7.50
0.09
7.64
6.77
15.56
8.43%
5.56%
2.14%
1,200,000
540,000,000
0.00%
33.70
7.50
13.35
1.67%
35,403,790
127,453,644
0.00%
-6.47
-0.56
0.00%
40,000,000
134,000,000
200
0.00%
0.38
0.10
8.82
2.99%
14,393,106
172,717,272
0.00%
-11.80
-1.02
0.00%
12,868,124
38,604,372
22,714,206,801
0
933,300
0.00%
0.37%
0.04
10.67
4.84
75.00
13.45
0.00%
4.25%
Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
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