KH Econ Monitor Feb2011
KH Econ Monitor Feb2011
KH Econ Monitor Feb2011
Overview
Recovery firmed up. Risks have lowered but remain important in the banking and fiscal sector. Inflation is low but deserves monitoring.
growth at 10% during 2000-08, -2.0% in 2009; and 6.7% projected in 2010 led by exports. Main drivers of growth remains: agriculture, garment exports, and tourism, construction and banking. economic downside risks are: (i) narrow base and high concentration of garment exports to the US market; (ii) weak fiscal position and aid dependent; (iii) stress on banking sector; and (iv) continued uncertainty on global environment especially food prices. jobs markets recovered especially in exports oriented industries (footwear and garments) countercyclical response has been broadly appropriate; recent fiscal adjustment appears on track, growing capital expenditures in recent years. monetary policy tightened with new policy of tripling bank capital requirement became effective January 1, 2011. Inflation and asset prices should be monitored closely. Dollarization remains high hampering effective monetary policy.
recent developments: fiscal adjustments (unwinding fiscal stimulus) rebound in credit and trade stable inflation
watch list: inflation (asset price; domestic inflation; external shocks, including oil prices; exchange rate)
fiscal developments
Table of contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Global environment Overall growth and projections Real economy by sector and corporate sector Labor, income and poverty impact Price and monetary developments Fiscal developments Balance of payments Policy response and challenges Background data
Note: this set of slides is prepared by the Cambodia country team and regularly updated. The first slides highlights recent changes / developments (e.g. newly available data) and key risks, while the rest of the slides reviews the main dimensions of the economy.
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1. global environment
global economic recovery advances but remains uneven (IMF-WEO Update Jan. 2011). The update estimates a 5% world output growth in 2010 (after contracting 0.6% in 2009) owing to stronger-than expected consumption in the United States and Japan. Stimulus measures were partly responsible for the strengthened outturn and global financial conditions also broadly improved, amid lingering vulnerabilities. 2011 prospect good with estimated global activity expanding by 4.4% (of which 8.4% in developing Asia), reflecting strong exports and private domestic demand (as well as a new fiscal package passed late 2010 in the US and a similar package passed in Japan)
IMF world economic growth projections
Projections World Output Advanced Economies United States Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada Other Advanced Economies Newly Industrialized Asian Economies Emerging and Developing Economies
Source: IMF-WEO January 2011
2009 -0.6 -3.4 -2.6 -4.1 -4.7 -2.5 -5.0 -3.7 -6.3 -4.9 -2.5 -1.2 -0.9 2.6
2010 5.0 3.0 2.8 1.8 3.6 1.6 1.0 -0.2 4.3 1.7 2.9 5.6 8.2 7.1
2011 4.4 2.5 3.0 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 3.8 4.7 6.5
2012 4.5 2.5 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.7 4.3 6.5
2. GDP growth
GDP growth (yoy %)
recovery firmed up for 2010, led by exports, although growth remains below its historical average. key drivers of 2010 macroeconomic indicators showed sign of recovery and a more rosy prospect for 2011. growth is estimated to reach 6.0% in 2010, triggered by exports, tourism, agriculture and banking and construction (both public and private).
3. garments
garment exports: 24% growth in 2010 (after a 19% decline in 2009). 60% of Cambodias garment exports is shipped the US markets and the US markets expanded by 19% in 2010 over that of 2009. The industry employs 5% of the employed population and it created 38,000 new jobs since December 2009 recovered most jobs lost during the 2009 economic downturn. similarly, footwear exports (represents1% of the employed population) picked up by 57% in 2010 and mostly shipped to the EU markets (62% of total). Footwear industry created 18,000 new jobs since December 2009. Cambodia has 2.8% market share of US imports of garments (first 11-month of 2010), slightly increased from 2.7% share over the same period of 2009. upbeat export prospect is projected partly because of benefit of the relaxed rule of origin of the European Union on preferential tariffs for LDCs to the EU markets which became effective on January 1, 2011.
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3. tourism
tourist arrivals show sign of solid recovery with an y-o-y increase of 16% in 2010 over that of 2009. A corresponding increase of tourism receipt of 14.4% to US$1.8 billion of over the same period. tourist arrivals by air, picked up by 17% in 2010 after a decline of 10% during the 2009 economic crisis. micro evidence shows strong signs of recovery in low income workers mainly motor-taxi drivers and small traders (CDRI Nov. 2010 surveys). improvement of the tourism industry is highly dependent on regional economies as 72% of Cambodias tourist market come from the East Asia and Pacific. The European and American regions represent 19% and 8% respectively. Other region accounted for about 1%.
Tourist arrivals (annual growth %)
3. agriculture
a 5.3% agricultural production growth recorded in 2010 (8 mill tons), contributing about 1.7 percentage point to GDP growth. The expansion is primarily led by paddy production. Cambodia initiated some diversification of its production and export base, with volume of milled rice exported almost tripling in 2010, a positive reflection of the policy strategy on promotion of paddy rice production and export of milled rice, launched by government in August 2010. in February 2010, government and the World Bank launched a risk sharing facility scheme to help agribusinesses access to credit by guaranteeing 50% of the participating banks and MFIs lending to the sector. This would further promote the sector prospect in the coming years. well distributed rainfall and with increasing investment in irrigation by the government brought about high rice yield in 2010. an associated downside risk is its dependency on weather conditions for agricultural productions.
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3. corporate sector
some 20 new garment factories opened in 2010 after 41 garment factories closed down in 2009 due to the crisis. In the meantime 10 new footwear firms established in 2010 (increased 38% over 2009). But most laid-off workers recovered in 2010 translating that the smaller closed factories, replaced with bigger ones opened.
Number of new firms registered at Ministry of Commerce (monthly registration)
new investment approvals in 2010 increased by very slightly (1% over 20009) with a better expectation for this year.
but monthly registration of new firms in 2010 recorded solid recovery with 30% expansion over 2009 corresponding an increase of bank credits to private sector by nearly 30%.
Value of investment approvals (million USD) Credit to private sector (million riels)
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5. inflation
Despite price hikes in other countries in the region, Cambodia y-o-y consumer price inflation dwindled to 3.1 percent in 2010 (from 5.3 percent in 2009). Core inflation fell from 4.5 percent to 1.0 percent over this period. The exchange rate remained relatively stable, appreciating about 3 percent against the US dollar, in the year ending 2010. m-o-m inflation rate remains low with headline inflation fell to -0.2% in Dec. 2010 while food and core inflation fell to -1.4% and 0.2% respectively over the indicated period. this stability contrasts with the very numerous inflationary pressures (and limited policy instruments): (i) global price increases of food and oil; (ii) regional inflation; (iii) depreciation of the currency in real effective terms against other garment exporters (although some recent appreciation); and (iv) robust recovery with increasingly rapid credit growth. One offsetting factor is the good harvest leading to stable rice prices
Monthly consumer price index (yoy growth %)
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5. monetary framework
Bank liquidity surged, as deposits including financed from remittances rose to a high of $4.3 billion by the year ending 2010. broad money pick-up (20%) was driven by credit to private sector which expanded by 27% in 2010 with a slight increase of loan-deposit-ratio (74% in 2010 from 73% in 2009). Reserves gained momentum but interest rates remain high, averaged 16% of all banks. the tripling of bank capital requirements came effective in January 1, 2011 number of banks rose to 35 by the end of 2010 with total assets of US$6.4 billion and 8 largest banks accounting for 75 percent these assets.
International reserves Interest rates (%)
Monetary framework (yoy growth %)
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5. exchange rate
exchange rate appreciated 3% against the dollar trading at 4,053 riels (eop) per one USD. Cambodias real effective exchange rate depreciated against a basket of other garment exporters for 14 straight months ending Dec 2010 stability maintained through sterilization by the National Bank of Cambodia (central bank): net purchase of foreign exchange in 2010 was US$75 million
Exchange rate (index 100 = 2000 increase = appreciation)
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5. financial sector
banks liquidity has improved quickly in recent months reaching 41% of GDP by the end of 2010 and total deposits at commercial banks mounted , accounted for 37% of GDP in 2010 (from 33% of GDP in 2009). Of the total deposits, 97% is in US Dollar currency reflecting a very high dollarized financial system the economy is effectively dollarized but limiting monetary policy options with the role of the local currency has decline with time, with rieldenominated deposits accounting for only 3 percent. The growth rate of foreign currency deposits in 2010 was doubled (24%) than that of growth of reserves (12%). high levels of collateral and conservative lending practiced in most banks. Credit to private in share of GDP remains low at 28%. reported NPLs ratio improved in 2010, down to around 2% from 4.8% in 2009.
Loans and deposits
with quickly rising number of banks in a limited technical resource environment of the NBC could constrain its oversight supervision capacity of the financial system.
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6. fiscal developments
appropriate countercyclical fiscal policy and sustainable debt fiscal deficit reduced to -5.7% of GDP in 2010 after -8.1% in 2009. Improvement resulted from unwinding expansionary policy especially in limiting unnecessary current spending and promotion. adjustment in 2010 was on track, with increased revenues and lower domestic financing. Revenue prospect is anticipated to improve further for 2011. Significant part of adjustment falling on capital expenditures. Priority sector funding also increased to about 3.4% of GDP in 2010 (recurrent spending only), compared to 3.2% in 2009 and 2.8% in 2004-07, and are budgeted at 3.6% for 2011.
Recorded trade flows (customs, annual, yoy growth) Fiscal framework (billion riels, annualized 3 months flows)
Domestic Revenues Expenditures and net lending Current expenditure Wages Nonwages Provincial expenditures Capital expenditure Domestically-Financed Externally-Financed Overall balance (excl. grant) Overall balance (incl. grant)
10.3 12.8 7.9 3.2 4.1 0.5 4.9 1.2 3.7 -2.5 -0.4
11.5 14.2 8.5 3.3 4.6 0.6 5.8 1.3 4.5 -2.7 -0.2
11.5 19.6 11.2 4.6 5.9 0.7 8.4 2.3 6.1 -8.1 -4.0 4.0 2.5 1.8 -0.3
12.9 18.6 11.3 4.3 6.3 0.7 7.3 2.2 5.0 -5.7 -3.1 3.1 2.9 0.5 -0.3
Financing 0.4 0.2 External 3.0 2.4 Domestic -2.4 -2.0 Debt Amortizations -0.1 -0.2 Sources: IMF, MEF-TOFE and Bank staff estimates
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7. balance of payments
the widening of the current account deficit in 2010 (-13.4 percent of GDP) resulted from a base effect, despite the rapid growth of exports. As export growth continues to firm up, the current account gap is projected to reduce to 12.4 percent of GDP in 2011.
Quarterly current account US$)
net capital inflows increased in 2010 (after significant outflows witnessed in 2009), financing the external shortfall and resulting in a further increase in foreign exchange reserves.
Net capital inflow gained ground in 2010, estimated to be some US$300 million after a nearly US$700 million outflows in 2009. foreign exchange reserves continued to increase, to US$2.7 billion at the end of 2010, equivalent to approximately 4 months of imports. Reserves amounted to 56 percent relative to the stock of broad money and 74 percent relative to gross external debt.
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a highly dollarized economic system. Any active use based instruments, weak interbank activity, and high level of dollarization (97% of total bank deposits) rebound in credit growth to be monitored Oversight supervision capacity of the central bank is overstretched and faced monitoring efficiency in the environment of rapidly rising number of banks. good policy but the interest rate remains high relative to its neighboring countries and sector other than agribusiness may still face credit access difficulties.
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9. background data
2008 2009 2010 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 year-on-year growth (except when otherwise indicated) NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND REAL SECTOR .. .. .. .. 24.2 -1.9 9.6 .. 6.3 334.7 287.6 .. 15.8 17.9 13.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 26.5 8.6 7.6 .. 17.5 -39.7 -43.6 .. 19.4 16.6 22.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 35.9 13.2 15.6 .. 35.6 367.9 333.7 .. 20.0 24.5 15.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 20.3 11.2 8.6 .. 65.5 82.8 40.1 .. 20.3 14.7 26.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. 25.3 -18.6 23.1 22.8 29.5 12.8 33.5 8.7 68.9 66.1 97.4 1.8 2.0 -0.4 5.9 20.8 61.1 .. .. .. .. 32.6 11.7 5.4 .. -7.3 -54.3 -47.8 .. 13.9 18.2 10.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. 21.9 -13.9 23.2 24.2 26.7 10.4 30.4 9.7 68.9 66.1 97.3 1.9 2.3 0.0 11.4 35.9 62.7 .. .. .. .. 46.7 12.2 18.1 .. -11.1 112.8 102.7 .. 30.8 25.8 36.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. 22.2 -8.3 24.8 22.9 25.7 6.5 30.0 10.5 68.4 65.8 97.5 3.7 4.6 0.9 10.3 43.5 66.9 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11
Note: 2010 value
GDP in US dollars GDP growth Agriculture VA Industry VA Textiles VA Exports of garments Workers Average pay Construction VA Project applications Area under construction value Services VA Tourist arrivals by air by land / sea HH consumption Gvnt consumption Investment Net trade Exports Imports Net foreign assets Net claim on gvnt Credit to private sector Capital and reserves Liquidity Money Quasi-Money Gross foreign reserve (inc. gold) Ratio Reserves / foreign currency deposit Credit to priv sector / broad money Foreign cur deposits / total deposits CPI All prices Food prices Core inflation International prices Crude oil, avg, spot Rice, Thai, A1.Special Rubber, Singapore
11,197 6.7 5.7 4.0 2.2 4.0 1.5 4.9 5.8 -27.0 4.5 82.6 9.0 5.5 .. .. 12.2 5.0 15.9 19.3 15.7 22.6 -3.6 64.5 55.0 34.0 4.8 16.9 2.2 33.9 84.1 73.1 98.5 25.0 34.4 15.9 36.4 77.1 14.3
9,966 -2.0 4.7 -10.2 -16.0 -18.9 -15.8 3.6 -8.0 -22.0 -71.2 -67.8 -1.2 1.7 -10.3 18.5 1.4 45.9 18.8 -5.5 -6.3 -4.9 41.7 -24.6 6.5 25.7 36.8 30.0 38.6 9.4 85.2 72.8 97.6 -0.7 -0.3 5.0 -36.3 -32.3 -25.7
11,552 6.7 4.6 9.3 14.0 24.4 2.8 9.7 1.0 10.0 32.1 26.6 6.1 16.0 17.3 14.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. 13.9 -5.6 26.6 19.5 20.0 3.2 24.0 12.1 71.3 65.6 97.5 4.0 4.3 1.7 28.0 17.6 90.2
.. .. .. .. 43.0 14.0 10.7 .. 84.2 678.7 616.1 .. 27.8 32.5 22.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. 14.1 -12.2 24.5 16.8 23.2 7.6 26.7 7.1 67.3 66.3 97.5 3.2 4.0 1.0 9.0 26.9 69.6
.. .. .. .. 20.8 13.3 18.2 .. 48.1 314.8 263.7 .. 6.3 16.5 -4.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. 13.9 -5.6 26.6 19.5 20.0 3.2 24.0 12.1 68.0 68.4 97.5 3.1 3.6 1.0 20.2 2.6 69.4
Billion riel
27% % GDP 28% % GDP 15% % GDP 3,009 USD million 297,909 number 91 $ / month 7% % GDP 406 projects approved 1,556,881 sq meter 473 USD million 39% % GDP 2,508 visitors mill 1,304 visitors mill 1,204 visitors mill #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP
MONETARY AND PRICES 30.7 21.9 13.9 -18.2 -13.9 -5.6 17.1 23.2 26.6 23.4 24.2 19.5 31.8 26.7 20.0 15.6 10.4 3.2 35.7 30.4 24.0 14.6 9.7 12.1 72.7 64.3 97.6 4.1 3.6 2.1 32.1 2.3 124.0 69.1 66.0 97.4 1.8 1.9 -0.3 10.7 21.7 69.3 67.9 66.9 97.5 3.4 4.1 1.0 13.1 22.2 68.7
16,698 billion riels -2,127 billion riels 13,331 billion riels -8,674 billion riels 19,477 billion riels 3,221 billion riels 16,256 billion riels 2,653 million USD
92 % 54 98
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33.9 8.7 104.7 2.3 46.9 52.5 43.3 -44.8 -98.4 -36.0 5.8 -148.3 -148.3 -40.0 48.1 -2,377.1
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Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion Riels billion
EXTERNAL 4,071 17.1 2.6 4,160 0.2 0.6 4,202 -0.3 4.7 4,230 -0.6 5.8 4,257 -1.2 5.1 4,131 1.9 3.8 4,259 -1.6 5.2 4,251 -1.1 4.5 4,240 -0.5 2.5 4,094 2.7 4.4 4,060 3.4 4.5 .. .. ..
4,061 Riel per USD 127.2 Index 100=2000 113.4 Index 100=2000
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