REPORT

Financial Report
Forecasting and Valuation
2023-2024

Prepared by:
K. Anshul Shankar
 CONTENTS

DCF Model
3 Statement Analysis

Ratio Analysis

Forecasting

Common Size Statements

Intrinsic Growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Future Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

 Historical Financials - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Year Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 LTM

# Income Statement - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Sales 12,220.4 13,615.3 14,271.5 15,062.0 16,824.6 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 34,488.6 35,551.3
Sales Growth 11.41% 4.82% 5.54% 11.70% 14.36% 5.05% 7.43% 34.03% 18.51%

COGS 8,439.0 9,298.8 9,413.8 9,732.7 11,194.2 12,905.8 13,158.0 14,035.1 20,590.6 23,766.7 27,792.9
COGS %Sales 69.06% 68.30% 65.96% 64.62% 66.53% 67.08% 65.10% 64.64% 70.75% 68.91% 78.18%

Gross Profit 3,781.4 4,316.5 4,857.7 5,329.3 5,630.4 6,334.3 7,053.2 7,677.7 8,510.7 10,721.9 7,758.4
Gross Margin 30.94% 31.70% 34.04% 35.38% 33.47% 32.92% 34.90% 35.36% 29.25% 31.09% 21.82%

S&G Expenses 1,777.7 2,073.6 2,132.6 2,335.6 2,426.4 2,569.4 2,896.4 2,822.1 3,707.1 4,462.1
S&G Expenses %Sales 14.55% 15.23% 14.94% 15.51% 14.42% 13.35% 14.33% 13.00% 12.74% 12.94%

EBITDA 2,003.7 2,242.9 2,725.0 2,993.8 3,204.0 3,764.9 4,156.8 4,855.6 4,803.6 6,259.8
EBITDA Margins 16.40% 16.47% 19.09% 19.88% 19.04% 19.57% 20.57% 22.36% 16.51% 18.15%

Depreciation 245.7 265.9 275.6 334.8 360.5 622.1 780.5 791.3 816.4 858.0 847.6
Depreciation % Sales 2.01% 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49% 2.38%

Interest 48.0 42.2 49.0 37.3 41.5 110.5 102.3 91.6 95.4 144.5 190.0
Interest %Sales 0.39% 0.31% 0.34% 0.25% 0.25% 0.57% 0.51% 0.42% 0.33% 0.42% 0.53%

EBIT 1,758.0 1,977.0 2,449.5 2,659.0 2,843.5 3,142.8 3,376.3 4,064.3 3,987.3 5,401.8
EBIT %Sales 14.39% 14.52% 17.16% 17.65% 16.90% 16.33% 16.71% 18.72% 13.70% 15.66%

EBT 1,710.0 1,934.7 2,400.5 2,621.6 2,802.1 3,032.3 3,274.0 3,972.7 3,891.8 5,257.4
EBT %Sales 13.99% 14.21% 16.82% 17.41% 16.65% 15.76% 16.20% 18.30% 13.37% 15.24%

Tax 571.5 649.5 844.5 943.3 1,041.0 1,098.1 854.9 1,097.6 1,102.9 1,493.5 1,892.7
Effective Tax Rate 33.42% 33.57% 35.18% 35.98% 37.15% 36.21% 26.11% 27.63% 28.34% 28.41%

Net Profit 1,138.5 1,285.2 1,556.0 1,678.4 1,761.1 1,934.3 2,419.1 2,875.1 2,788.9 3,763.9 5,437.7
Net Margins 9.32% 9.44% 10.90% 11.14% 10.47% 10.05% 11.97% 13.24% 9.58% 10.91% 15.30%

No. of Equity Shares 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9

Earnings Per Share 11.9 13.4 16.2 17.5 18.4 20.2 25.2 30.0 29.1 39.2
EPS Growth % 12.88% 21.07% 7.87% 4.93% 9.83% 25.07% 18.85% -3.00% 34.96%

Dividends Per Share 5.3 6.1 7.5 10.3 8.7 10.5 12.0 17.8 19.2 25.7
Dividend Payout Ratio 44.65% 45.53% 46.23% 58.87% 47.38% 52.07% 47.58% 59.55% 65.86% 65.37%

Retained Earnings 55.35% 54.47% 53.77% 41.13% 52.62% 47.93% 52.42% 40.45% 34.14% 34.63%

# Balance Sheet - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Equity Share Capital 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9

Reserves 3,943.3 4,646.4 6,428.9 7,508.0 8,314.3 9,374.6 10,034.2 12,710.4 13,715.6 15,896.3
Borrowings 249.2 418.2 323.3 560.3 533.4 1,319.6 1,118.5 1,093.1 1,586.9 1,932.6
Other Liabilities 3,787.0 3,754.0 3,710.9 4,241.0 4,819.8 5,458.7 4,889.3 6,455.9 7,560.0 7,854.5

Total Liabilities 8,075.4 8,914.5 10,559.0 12,405.2 13,763.5 16,248.8 16,138.0 20,355.3 22,958.4 25,779.3

Fixed Assets Net Block 2,561.6 2,660.0 3,416.4 3,303.7 3,732.2 6,496.6 6,272.3 5,858.5 5,519.1 5,770.5
Capital Work in Progress 71.6 196.0 106.6 257.5 1,405.1 209.7 140.2 183.0 426.4 1,019.6
Investments 1,423.6 1,587.8 2,712.1 2,652.0 2,140.7 2,568.6 2,018.9 4,736.8 3,247.5 4,261.7
Other Assets 609.5 825.7 714.7 1,317.2 1,691.8 1,472.0 1,738.7 2,565.5 2,876.7 3,036.2
Total Non Current Assets 4,666.2 5,269.5 6,949.8 7,530.4 8,969.9 10,746.8 10,170.1 13,343.8 12,069.7 14,087.9

Receivables 1,110.3 1,182.1 1,186.8 1,446.6 1,730.6 1,907.3 1,795.2 2,602.2 3,871.4 4,636.9
Inventory 2,069.9 2,258.5 1,998.2 2,626.9 2,658.3 3,149.9 3,389.8 3,798.6 6,153.0 6,210.6
Cash & Bank 229.0 204.4 424.2 801.2 404.7 444.9 782.8 610.8 864.3 843.8
Total Current Assets 3,409.2 3,645.0 3,609.3 4,874.8 4,793.6 5,502.1 5,967.9 7,011.5 10,888.8 11,691.4

Total Assets 8,075.4 8,914.5 10,559.0 12,405.2 13,763.5 16,248.8 16,138.0 20,355.3 22,958.4 25,779.3

CHECK TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
# Cashflow Statement - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Profit from operations 2,051.0 2,271.0 2,848.0 3,056.0 3,274.0 3,861.0 4,380.0 4,970.0 4,957.0 6,460.0
Receivables (254.0) (155.0) (146.0) (475.0) (483.0) (205.0) 160.0 (849.0) (1,326.0) (834.0)
Inventory (231.0) (144.0) 202.0 (629.0) (39.0) (492.0) (251.0) (409.0) (2,354.0) (56.0)
Payables 317.0 (151.0) 142.0 501.0 442.0 287.0 (241.0) 1,143.0 644.0 (539.0)
Loans Advances - - - - - - - - - -
Other WC items - - - - - - - (92.0) 242.0 657.0
Working capital changes (168.0) (450.0) 198.0 (603.0) (80.0) (410.0) (331.0) (206.0) (2,795.0) (772.0)
Direct taxes (480.0) (633.0) (802.0) (925.0) (1,081.0) (982.0) (1,011.0) (1,080.0) (1,176.0) (1,494.0)
Cash from Operating Activity 1,235.0 738.0 2,442.0 925.0 2,033.0 2,059.0 2,706.0 3,477.0 (1,808.0) 3,422.0

Fixed assets purchased (251.0) (454.0) (817.0) (684.0) (1,426.0) (1,151.0) (404.0) (282.0) (551.0) (1,446.0)
Fixed assets sold 16.0 16.0 15.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 37.0 28.0 40.0 26.0
Investments purchased (872.0) (243.0) (282.0) (153.0) (320.0) (573.0) (25.0) (140.0) - (146.0)
Investments sold 463.0 278.0 205.0 357.0 362.0 733.0 134.0 272.0 207.0 446.0
Interest received 14.0 11.0 15.0 32.0 39.0 40.0 65.0 73.0 77.0 87.0
Dividends received 65.0 71.0 69.0 74.0 38.0 40.0 27.0 8.0 15.0 56.0
Investment in group cos - - - - - - - - - (180.0)
Redemp n Canc of Shares - - - - 141.0 - - - - -
Acquisition of companies - - - - (525.0) - - - - -
Inter corporate deposits - - - - - - - - - -
Other investing items (21.0) (144.0) (70.0) (324.0) 118.0 (24.0) (353.0) (500.0) (105.0) (126.0)
Cash from Investing Activity (586.0) (465.0) (865.0) (681.0) (1,556.0) (918.0) (519.0) (541.0) (317.0) (1,283.0)

Proceeds from shares - - - - - - - - - -

Proceeds from borrowings 44.0 239.0 8.0 271.0 10.0 243.0 18.0 155.0 418.0 254.0
Repayment of borrowings (81.0) (86.0) (119.0) (58.0) (54.0) (26.0) (279.0) (14.0) (8.0) (25.0)
Interest paid fin (42.0) (35.0) (40.0) (36.0) (35.0) (106.0) (101.0) (89.0) (94.0) (142.0)
Dividends paid (547.0) (695.0) (764.0) (947.0) (1,218.0) (1,049.0) (2,121.0) (499.0) (1,763.0) (1,936.0)
Financial liabilities - - - - - (180.0) (179.0) (203.0) (221.0) (256.0)
Other financing items - - 66.0 13.0 (82.0) - (209.0) - (140.0) (36.0)
Cash from Financing Activity (626.0) (577.0) (849.0) (757.0) (1,379.0) (1,118.0) (2,871.0) (650.0) (1,808.0) (2,141.0)

Net Cash Flow 23.0 (304.0) 728.0 (513.0) (902.0) 23.0 (684.0) 2,286.0 (3,933.0) (2.0)
 Historical Financials - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Year Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Trend Mean Median

Ratio Analysis - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Sales Growth - 11.41% 4.82% 5.54% 11.70% 14.36% 5.05% 7.43% 34.03% 18.51% 12.54% 11.41%
EBITDA Growth - 11.94% 21.50% 9.86% 7.02% 17.51% 10.41% 16.81% -1.07% 30.32% 13.81% 11.94%
EBIT Growth - 12.46% 23.90% 8.55% 6.94% 10.52% 7.43% 20.38% -1.90% 35.48% 13.75% 10.52%
Net Profit Growth - 12.88% 21.07% 7.87% 4.93% 9.83% 25.07% 18.85% -3.00% 34.96% 14.72% 12.88%
Dividend Growth - 15.09% 22.95% 37.33% -15.53% 20.69% 14.29% 48.75% 7.28% 33.94% 20.53% 20.69%

Gross Margins 30.94% 31.70% 34.04% 35.38% 33.47% 32.92% 34.90% 35.36% 29.25% 31.09% 32.90% 33.19%
EBITDA Margins 16.40% 16.47% 19.09% 19.88% 19.04% 19.57% 20.57% 22.36% 16.51% 18.15% 18.80% 19.07%
EBIT Margins 14.39% 14.52% 17.16% 17.65% 16.90% 16.33% 16.71% 18.72% 13.70% 15.66% 16.17% 16.52%
EBT Margins 13.99% 14.21% 16.82% 17.41% 16.65% 15.76% 16.20% 18.30% 13.37% 15.24% 15.80% 15.98%
Net Profit Margins 9.32% 9.44% 10.90% 11.14% 10.47% 10.05% 11.97% 13.24% 9.58% 10.91% 10.70% 10.69%

Sales Expenses %Sales 14.55% 15.23% 14.94% 15.51% 14.42% 13.35% 14.33% 13.00% 12.74% 12.94% 14.10% 14.38%
Depriciation %Sales 2.01% 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49% 2.63% 2.36%
Operating Income %Sales 14.39% 14.52% 17.16% 17.65% 16.90% 16.33% 16.71% 18.72% 13.70% 15.66% 16.17% 16.52%

Return On Capital Employed 40.99% 38.31% 35.77% 32.57% 31.79% 29.13% 30.02% 29.24% 25.89% 30.14% 32.38% 30.96%
Retained Earnings % 55.35% 54.47% 53.77% 41.13% 52.62% 47.93% 52.42% 40.45% 34.14% 34.63% 46.69% 50.18%
Return On Equity % 28.19% 27.10% 23.85% 22.07% 20.94% 20.42% 23.88% 22.45% 20.19% 23.54% 23.26% 22.99%
Self Sustained Growth Rate 15.60% 14.76% 12.82% 9.08% 11.02% 9.79% 12.52% 9.08% 6.89% 8.15% 10.97% 10.40%
Interest Coverage Ratio 36.6x 46.8x 50.0x 71.2x 68.6x 28.4x 33.0x 44.4x 41.8x 37.4x 45.8x 43.1x

Debtor Turnover Ratio 11.0x 11.5x 12.0x 10.4x 9.7x 10.1x 11.3x 8.3x 7.5x 7.4x 9.9x 10.2x
Creditor Turnover Ratio 3.2x 3.6x 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 3.5x 4.1x 3.4x 3.8x 4.4x 3.7x 3.6x
Inventory Turnover Ratio 5.9x 6.0x 7.1x 5.7x 6.3x 6.1x 6.0x 5.7x 4.7x 5.6x 5.9x 5.9x
Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio 4.8x 5.1x 4.2x 4.6x 4.5x 3.0x 3.2x 3.7x 5.3x 6.0x 4.4x 4.5x
Capital Turnover Ratio 3.0x 2.9x 2.2x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.7x 2.1x 2.2x 2.2x 2.1x

Debtor Days 33 32 30 35 38 36 32 44 49 49 38 36
Payable Days 113 101 95 103 105 104 88 109 95 83 99 102
Inventory Days 62 61 51 64 58 60 61 64 77 66 62 62
Cash Conversion Cycle (in days) -18 -8 -13 -4 -9 -8 5 -1 31 32 1 -6

CFO/Sales 10.11% 5.42% 17.11% 6.14% 12.08% 10.70% 13.39% 16.01% -6.21% 9.92% 9.47% 10.40%
CFO/Total Assets 15.29% 8.28% 23.13% 7.46% 14.77% 12.67% 16.77% 17.08% -7.88% 13.27% 12.08% 14.02%
CFO/Total Debt 495.69% 176.48% 755.36% 165.08% 381.12% 156.03% 241.93% 318.08% -113.93% 177.07% 275.29% 209.50%
 Forecasting - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Forecasting Sales - ASIAN PAINTS LTD Forecasting EBITDA - ASIAN PAINTS LTD Forecasting EPS - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year EBITDA EBITDA Growth Year Weight Year EPS EPS Growth
1 2014A 12,220.4 1 2014A 2,084.0 1 2014A 11.9
2 2015A 13,615.3 11.41% 2 2015A 2,352.9 12.90% 2 2015A 13.4 12.88%
3 2016A 14,271.5 4.82% 3 2016A 2,914.2 23.86% 3 2016A 16.2 21.07%
4 2017A 15,062.0 5.54% 4 2017A 3,254.8 11.69% 4 2017A 17.5 7.87%
5 2018A 16,824.6 11.70% 5 2018A 3,481.8 6.97% 5 2018A 18.4 4.93%
6 2019A 19,240.1 14.36% 6 2019A 3,986.6 14.50% 6 2019A 20.2 9.83%
7 2020A 20,211.3 5.05% 7 2020A 4,442.9 11.44% 7 2020A 25.2 25.07%
8 2021A 21,712.8 7.43% 8 2021A 5,119.8 15.24% 8 2021A 30.0 18.85%
9 2022A 29,101.3 34.03% 9 2022A 5,045.3 -1.46% 9 2022A 29.1 -3.00%
10 2023A 34,488.6 18.51% 10 2023A 6,602.4 30.86% 10 2023A 39.2 34.96%
11 2024F 31,804.3 -7.78% 11 2024F 6,415.4 -2.83% 11 2024F 37.1 -5.46%
12 2025F 34,009.7 6.93% 12 2025F 6,867.6 7.05% 12 2025F 39.8 7.35%
13 2026F 36,215.0 6.48% 13 2026F 7,319.8 6.58% 13 2026F 42.5 6.85%
14 2027F 38,420.4 6.09% 14 2027F 7,772.0 6.18% 14 2027F 45.3 6.41%
15 2028F 40,625.8 5.74% 15 2028F 8,224.2 5.82% 15 2028F 48.0 6.02%
 Forecasting Sales - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Sales Regression
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth
1 2014A 12,220.4 1,40,000.0

2 2015A 71,448.0 484.66% 1,20,000.0

3 2016A 75,841.4 6.15%
4 2017A 83,773.1 10.46% 1,00,000.0
5 2018A 92,094.0 9.93%
80,000.0
6 2019A 1,04,720.7 13.71%

Sales
7 2020A 75,381.9 -28.02% 60,000.0
8 2021A 74,277.8 -1.46%
9 2022A 90,170.6 21.40% 40,000.0
10 2023A 1,21,268.6 34.49%
20,000.0

-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Year Weight

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.702848927
R Square 0.493996615
Adjusted R Square 0.430746192
Standard Error 21512.24908
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3614366375 3614366375 7.810171 0.023389319
Residual 8 3702214885 462776860.6
Total 9 7316581259

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 43715.404 14695.66381 2.974714484 0.017743 9827.142475 77603.67 9827.142475 77603.66553
X Variable 1 6618.950182 2368.420675 2.794668301 0.023389 1157.362312 12080.54 1157.362312 12080.53805
# Common Size Income Statement -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Raw Material Cost 51.88% 50.49% 46.03% 49.48% 48.31% 51.84% 49.39% 48.02% 58.84% 55.05%
Change in Inventory 0.74% 1.09% -1.40% 3.51% -0.84% 1.52% 1.18% 0.43% 4.55% 0.90%
Power and Fuel 1.09% 0.96% 0.80% 0.70% 0.66% 0.62% 0.48% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
Other Mfr. Exp 10.57% 11.05% 10.76% 11.04% 10.05% 9.68% 9.63% 9.53% 9.90% 8.46%
Employee Cost 6.25% 6.88% 6.97% 6.90% 6.67% 6.46% 6.78% 7.13% 6.17% 5.90%
Selling and admin 23.13% 24.62% 27.41% 28.97% 13.40% 12.30% 11.44% 10.34% 10.11% 10.15%
Other Expenses -8.58% -9.39% -12.47% -13.47% 1.02% 1.05% 2.89% 2.65% 2.63% 2.79%
Other Income 1.02% 1.04% 1.50% 2.24% 2.00% 1.42% 1.76% 1.53% 1.02% 1.25%
Depreciation 2.01% 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49%
Interest 0.39% 0.31% 0.34% 0.25% 0.25% 0.57% 0.51% 0.42% 0.33% 0.42%
Profit before tax 15.01% 15.25% 18.32% 19.65% 18.65% 17.18% 17.96% 19.82% 14.39% 16.49%
Tax 4.68% 4.77% 5.92% 6.26% 6.19% 5.71% 4.23% 5.06% 3.79% 4.33%
Net profit 9.97% 10.25% 12.23% 12.88% 12.12% 11.21% 13.38% 14.46% 10.41% 11.91%
Dividend Amount 4.16% 4.30% 5.04% 6.56% 4.96% 5.23% 5.70% 7.89% 6.31% 7.13%
EBITDA 17.05% 17.28% 20.42% 21.61% 20.69% 20.72% 21.98% 23.58% 17.34% 19.14%

# Common Size Balance Sheet -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Total Liabilities 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Equity Share Capital 1.19% 1.08% 0.91% 0.77% 0.70% 0.59% 0.59% 0.47% 0.42% 0.37%
Reserves 48.83% 52.12% 60.89% 60.52% 60.41% 57.69% 62.18% 62.44% 59.74% 61.66%
Borrowings 3.09% 4.69% 3.06% 4.52% 3.88% 8.12% 6.93% 5.37% 6.91% 7.50%
Other Liabilities 46.90% 42.11% 35.14% 34.19% 35.02% 33.59% 30.30% 31.72% 32.93% 30.47%

Total Assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Net Block 31.72% 29.84% 32.35% 26.63% 27.12% 39.98% 38.87% 28.78% 24.04% 22.38%
Capital Work in Progress 0.89% 2.20% 1.01% 2.08% 10.21% 1.29% 0.87% 0.90% 1.86% 3.96%
Investments 17.63% 17.81% 25.69% 21.38% 15.55% 15.81% 12.51% 23.27% 14.15% 16.53%
Other Assets 7.55% 9.26% 6.77% 10.62% 12.29% 9.06% 10.77% 12.60% 12.53% 11.78%
Receivables 13.75% 13.26% 11.24% 11.66% 12.57% 11.74% 11.12% 12.78% 16.86% 17.99%
Inventory 25.63% 25.34% 18.92% 21.18% 19.31% 19.39% 21.01% 18.66% 26.80% 24.09%
Cash & Bank 2.84% 2.29% 4.02% 6.46% 2.94% 2.74% 4.85% 3.00% 3.76% 3.27%
# Calculation of ROIC -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Current Assets
Inventories 3,150.0 3,390.0 3,799.0 6,153.0 6,211.0
Trade receivables 1,907.0 1,795.0 2,602.0 3,871.0 4,637.0
Cash Equivalents 445.0 783.0 611.0 864.0 844.0
Short term loans 16.0 12.0 11.0 8.0 12.0
Other asset items 1,456.0 1,727.0 2,555.0 2,869.0 3,024.0
Total Current Assets 6,974.0 7,707.0 9,578.0 13,765.0 14,728.0

Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 2,394.0 2,137.0 3,379.0 4,164.0 3,635.0
Advance from Customers 13.0 29.0 41.0 76.0 108.0
Other liability items 2,690.0 2,320.0 2,613.0 2,932.0 3,657.0
Total Current Liabilities 5,097.0 4,486.0 6,033.0 7,172.0 7,400.0
# Net Working Capital 1,877.0 3,221.0 3,545.0 6,593.0 7,328.0

Non Current Assets

Land 605.0 640.0 644.0 644.0 799.0
Building 2,402.0 2,257.0 2,249.0 2,325.0 2,617.0
Plant Machinery 4,006.0 4,208.0 4,340.0 4,531.0 4,825.0
Equipments 221.0 241.0 243.0 253.0 270.0
Furniture n fittings 88.0 94.0 99.0 113.0 146.0
Vehicles 47.0 43.0 38.0 32.0 30.0
Intangible Assets 512.0 505.0 476.0 345.0 330.0
Other fixed assets 261.0 293.0 302.0 294.0 289.0
Gross Block 8,142.0 8,281.0 8,391.0 8,537.0 9,306.0
Accumulated Depreciation 1,592.0 2,010.0 2,533.0 3,019.0 3,536.0
# Net Non Current Assets 6,550.0 6,271.0 5,858.0 5,518.0 5,770.0

# Invested Capital 8,427.0 9,492.0 9,403.0 12,111.0 13,098.0

# EBIT 3,142.8 3,376.3 4,064.3 3,987.3 5,401.8

# ROIC 37.29% 35.57% 43.22% 32.92% 41.24%

# Calculation of Reinvestment Rate -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Change in Working Capital 1,344.0 324.0 3,048.0 735.0

Net Capex (1,134.0) (367.0) (254.0) (511.0) (1,420.0)
# Reinvestment 977.0 70.0 2,537.0 (685.0)
Marginal Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
EBIT 3,142.8 3,376.3 4,064.3 3,987.3 5,401.8
EBIT(1-T) 2,357.1 2,532.2 3,048.2 2,990.4 4,051.4

# Reinvestment Rate 38.58% 2.30% 84.84% -16.91%

4 Year Average 27.20%

4 year Median 20.44%

# Intrinsic Growth Rate -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

ROIC 37.29% 35.57% 43.22% 32.92% 41.24%

Reinvestment Rate 38.58% 2.30% 84.84% -16.91%

# Intrinsic Growth 13.72% 0.99% 27.93% -6.97%

4 Year Average 8.92%

4 year Median 7.36%
 Return from Markets
Year Annual Return
2000 -14.65%
2001 -16.18% Average 15.61%
1
2002 3.25% Dividend Yield 1.23%
2003 71.90% Total Market Return 16.84%
2004 10.68%
2005 36.34%
2006 39.83% Annual Market Returns
2007 54.77%
100.00%
2008 -51.79%
2009 75.76% 80.00%
2010 17.95% 60.00%
2011 -24.62%
Annual Return

40.00%
2012 27.70%
2013 6.76% 20.00%
2014 31.39% 0.00%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2015 -4.06%
-20.00%
2016 3.01%
2017 28.65% -40.00%
2018 3.15% -60.00%
2019 12.02% Years
2020 14.90%
2021 24.12%
2022 4.32%
2023 19.42%
 Peer Companies Data
S.No. Name Country Mar Cap Rs.Cr. Debt Rs.Cr.
1 Asian Paints India 2,68,575.4 2,326.8
2 Berger Paints India 65,632.8 1,154.2
3 Kansai Nerolac India 23,616.8 323.3
4 Akzo Nobel India 11,749.9 62.8
5 Indigo Paints India 6,702.4 13.7
6 Shalimar Paints India 1,490.5 128.2

Peer Company Data

3,00,000.0

2,50,000.0

2,00,000.0

1,50,000.0

1,00,000.0

50,000.0

-
Asian Paints Berger Paints Kansai Akzo Nobel Indigo Paints Shalimar
Nerolac Paints

Mar Cap Rs.Cr. Debt Rs.Cr.

Beta Regression 2 Years Weekly

Asian Paints Weekly Returns NIFTY Weekly Returns Beta Drifting

Date Closing Price Return Date Closing Price Return Levered Raw Beta 0.92
28-02-22 2,695.8 28-02-2022 16,245.3 Raw Beta Weight 75.00%
07-03-22 2,886.7 7.08% 07-03-2022 16,630.4 2.37%
14-03-22 3,088.1 6.98% 14-03-2022 17,287.1 3.95% Market Beta 1.0
21-03-22 2,999.9 -2.86% 21-03-2022 17,153.0 -0.78% Market Beta Weight 25.00%
28-03-22 3,066.0 2.21% 28-03-2022 17,670.4 3.02%
04-04-22 3,156.7 2.96% 04-04-2022 17,784.3 0.64% Adjusted Beta 0.94
11-04-22 3,033.1 -3.92% 11-04-2022 17,475.7 -1.74%
18-04-22 3,115.5 2.72% 18-04-2022 17,171.9 -1.74%
25-04-22 3,187.2 2.30% 25-04-2022 17,102.6 -0.40% SUMMARY OUTPUT
02-05-22 2,969.7 -6.83% 02-05-2022 16,411.3 -4.04%
09-05-22 3,016.7 1.58% 09-05-2022 15,782.2 -3.83% Regression Statistics
16-05-22 3,061.9 1.50% 16-05-2022 16,266.2 3.07% Multiple R 0.498413339
23-05-22 2,791.1 -8.85% 23-05-2022 16,352.5 0.53% R Square 0.248415857
30-05-22 2,842.3 1.84% 30-05-2022 16,584.3 1.42% Adjusted R Square 0.241047385
06-06-22 2,666.9 -6.17% 06-06-2022 16,201.8 -2.31% Standard Error 0.028116825
13-06-22 2,555.0 -4.20% 13-06-2022 15,293.5 -5.61% Observations 104
20-06-22 2,733.9 7.00% 20-06-2022 15,699.3 2.65%
27-06-22 2,746.0 0.44% 27-06-2022 15,752.0 0.34% ANOVA
04-07-22 2,851.6 3.85% 04-07-2022 16,220.6 2.97% df SS MS F Significance F
11-07-22 2,949.0 3.42% 11-07-2022 16,049.2 -1.06% Regression 1 0.026652284 0.026652284 33.71334747 7.27786E-08
18-07-22 3,037.4 3.00% 18-07-2022 16,719.4 4.18% Residual 102 0.080636697 0.000790556
25-07-22 3,301.2 8.68% 25-07-2022 17,158.3 2.62% Total 103 0.107288981
01-08-22 3,439.9 4.20% 01-08-2022 17,397.5 1.39%
08-08-22 3,394.3 -1.33% 08-08-2022 17,698.2 1.73% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
15-08-22 3,448.5 1.60% 15-08-2022 17,758.4 0.34% Intercept -0.00178376 0.002800991 -0.63683069 0.525661811 -0.007339509 0.003771995 -0.007339509 0.003771995
22-08-22 3,291.1 -4.57% 22-08-2022 17,558.9 -1.12% X Variable 1 0.917638855 0.158041396 5.806319615 7.27786E-08 0.604164496 1.231113214 0.604164496 1.231113214
29-08-22 3,397.5 3.23% 29-08-2022 17,539.4 -0.11%
05-09-22 3,408.2 0.31% 05-09-2022 17,833.3 1.68%
12-09-22 3,290.1 -3.47% 12-09-2022 17,530.8 -1.70%
19-09-22 3,362.1 2.19% 19-09-2022 17,327.3 -1.16%
26-09-22 3,309.8 -1.56% 26-09-2022 17,094.3 -1.34%
03-10-22 3,311.0 0.04% 03-10-2022 17,314.7 1.29%
10-10-22 3,154.4 -4.73% 10-10-2022 17,185.7 -0.74%
17-10-22 3,062.2 -2.92% 17-10-2022 17,576.3 2.27%
24-10-22 3,023.6 -1.26% 24-10-2022 17,786.8 1.20%
31-10-22 3,150.3 4.19% 31-10-2022 18,117.2 1.86%
07-11-22 3,029.9 -3.82% 07-11-2022 18,349.7 1.28%
14-11-22 3,069.7 1.31% 14-11-2022 18,307.7 -0.23%
21-11-22 3,082.2 0.41% 21-11-2022 18,512.8 1.12%
28-11-22 3,117.2 1.14% 28-11-2022 18,696.1 0.99%
05-12-22 3,200.0 2.66% 05-12-2022 18,496.6 -1.07%
12-12-22 3,030.4 -5.30% 12-12-2022 18,269.0 -1.23%
19-12-22 3,032.4 0.07% 19-12-2022 17,806.8 -2.53%
26-12-22 3,062.1 0.98% 26-12-2022 18,105.3 1.68%
02-01-23 2,953.5 -3.55% 02-01-2023 17,859.4 -1.36%
09-01-23 2,884.9 -2.33% 09-01-2023 17,956.6 0.54%
16-01-23 2,764.5 -4.17% 16-01-2023 18,027.7 0.40%
23-01-23 2,699.9 -2.34% 23-01-2023 17,604.3 -2.35%
30-01-23 2,737.4 1.39% 30-01-2023 17,854.1 1.42%
06-02-23 2,781.2 1.60% 06-02-2023 17,856.5 0.01%
13-02-23 2,809.9 1.03% 13-02-2023 17,944.2 0.49%
20-02-23 2,715.6 -3.36% 20-02-2023 17,465.8 -2.67%
27-02-23 2,805.2 3.30% 27-02-2023 17,594.3 0.74%
06-03-23 2,806.6 0.05% 06-03-2023 17,412.9 -1.03%
13-03-23 2,838.8 1.15% 13-03-2023 17,100.1 -1.80%
20-03-23 2,775.1 -2.24% 20-03-2023 16,945.1 -0.91%
27-03-23 2,738.6 -1.32% 27-03-2023 17,359.8 2.45%
03-04-23 2,786.4 1.75% 03-04-2023 17,599.2 1.38%
10-04-23 2,786.3 0.00% 10-04-2023 17,828.0 1.30%
17-04-23 2,858.0 2.57% 17-04-2023 17,624.1 -1.14%
24-04-23 2,878.1 0.70% 24-04-2023 18,065.0 2.50%
01-05-23 2,987.8 3.81% 01-05-2023 18,069.0 0.02%
08-05-23 3,105.0 3.92% 08-05-2023 18,314.8 1.36%
15-05-23 3,058.7 -1.49% 15-05-2023 18,203.4 -0.61%
22-05-23 3,102.3 1.42% 22-05-2023 18,499.3 1.63%
29-05-23 3,210.2 3.48% 29-05-2023 18,534.1 0.19%
05-06-23 3,154.0 -1.75% 05-06-2023 18,563.4 0.16%
12-06-23 3,311.1 4.98% 12-06-2023 18,826.0 1.41%
19-06-23 3,292.0 -0.58% 19-06-2023 18,665.5 -0.85%
26-06-23 3,356.2 1.95% 26-06-2023 19,189.1 2.80%
03-07-23 3,337.9 -0.55% 03-07-2023 19,331.8 0.74%
10-07-23 3,423.8 2.57% 10-07-2023 19,564.5 1.20%
17-07-23 3,511.6 2.56% 17-07-2023 19,745.0 0.92%
24-07-23 3,384.8 -3.61% 24-07-2023 19,646.1 -0.50%
31-07-23 3,333.8 -1.51% 31-07-2023 19,517.0 -0.66%
07-08-23 3,179.8 -4.62% 07-08-2023 19,428.3 -0.45%
14-08-23 3,158.0 -0.68% 14-08-2023 19,310.2 -0.61%
21-08-23 3,253.6 3.03% 21-08-2023 19,265.8 -0.23%
28-08-23 3,253.9 0.01% 28-08-2023 19,435.3 0.88%
04-09-23 3,232.4 -0.66% 04-09-2023 19,819.9 1.98%
11-09-23 3,191.1 -1.28% 11-09-2023 20,192.3 1.88%
18-09-23 3,269.1 2.45% 18-09-2023 19,674.3 -2.57%
25-09-23 3,155.5 -3.47% 25-09-2023 19,638.3 -0.18%
02-10-23 3,190.2 1.10% 02-10-2023 19,653.5 0.08%
09-10-23 3,143.3 -1.47% 09-10-2023 19,751.1 0.50%
16-10-23 3,100.4 -1.36% 16-10-2023 19,542.7 -1.06%
23-10-23 2,950.0 -4.85% 23-10-2023 19,047.3 -2.53%
30-10-23 2,972.7 0.77% 30-10-2023 19,230.6 0.96%
06-11-23 3,076.4 3.49% 06-11-2023 19,425.3 1.01%
13-11-23 3,168.9 3.01% 13-11-2023 19,731.8 1.58%
20-11-23 3,136.1 -1.03% 20-11-2023 19,794.7 0.32%
27-11-23 3,173.4 1.19% 27-11-2023 20,267.9 2.39%
04-12-23 3,232.0 1.85% 04-12-2023 20,969.4 3.46%
11-12-23 3,313.9 2.53% 11-12-2023 21,456.7 2.32%
18-12-23 3,341.3 0.83% 18-12-2023 21,349.4 -0.50%
25-12-23 3,402.4 1.83% 25-12-2023 21,731.4 1.79%
01-01-24 3,355.6 -1.38% 01-01-2024 21,710.8 -0.09%
08-01-24 3,277.8 -2.32% 08-01-2024 21,894.6 0.85%
15-01-24 3,165.9 -3.42% 15-01-2024 21,622.4 -1.24%
22-01-24 2,949.2 -6.84% 22-01-2024 21,352.6 -1.25%
29-01-24 2,936.3 -0.44% 29-01-2024 21,853.8 2.35%
05-02-24 2,951.6 0.52% 05-02-2024 21,782.5 -0.33%
12-02-24 3,007.9 1.91% 12-02-2024 22,040.7 1.19%
19-02-24 2,985.9 -0.73% 19-02-2024 22,212.7 0.78%
26-02-24 2,859.6 -4.23% 26-02-2024 22,122.1 -0.41%
 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) - ASIAN PAINTS LTD

All figures are in INR unless stated otherwise.

Peer Companies
Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
1 2 3
Name Country Total Equity Total Debt Tax Rate Equity Capital Beta Beta
Asian Paints India 2,68,575.4 2,326.8 30.00% 0.87% 0.86% 0.92 0.91
Berger Paints India 65,632.8 1,154.2 30.00% 1.76% 1.73% 0.88 0.87
Kansai Nerolac India 23,616.8 323.3 30.00% 1.37% 1.35% 0.92 0.91
Akzo Nobel India 11,749.9 62.8 30.00% 0.53% 0.53% 0.41 0.41
Indigo Paints India 6,702.4 13.7 30.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.72 0.72
Shalimar Paints India 1,490.5 128.2 30.00% 8.60% 7.92% 0.38 0.36
Average 30.00% 2.22% 2.10% 0.70 0.70
Median 30.00% 1.12% 1.10% 0.80 0.79

Cost of Debt Cost of Equity

Pre Tax Cost of Debt 28.34% Risk Free Rate 7.07%

Tax Rate 30.00% Risk Equity Premium 9.77%
4
After Tax Cost of Debt 19.84% Levered Beta 0.80
Cost of Equity 14.92%

Capital Structure Levered Beta

Current Target Comps Median Unlevered Beta 0.79

Total Debt 323.3 1.35% 2.10% Tax Rate 30.00%
Market Capitalisation 23,616.8 98.65% 97.90% Target Debt/Equity 2.14%
Total Capitalisation 23,940.1 100.00% 100.00% Levered Beta 0.80

Debt/Equity 1.37% 2.14%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity 14.92%

Equity Weight 97.90%

Cost of Debt 19.84%

Debt Weight 2.10%

WACC 15.02%

1. Tax Rate considered as Marginal Tax Rate for the country

2. Levered Beta is based on 5 year monthly data
3. Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate)*Debt/Equity)
4. Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta*(1+(1-Tax Rate)*Debt/Equity)
 Calculation of PV of FCFF

Particulars Mar-23A Mar-24F Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F Mar-28F

EBIT 5,401.8 5,799.3 6,226.0 6,684.1 7,176.0 7,704.0

Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
EBIT(1-T) 4,051.4 4,349.5 4,669.5 5,013.1 5,382.0 5,778.0
Less: Reinvestment Rate 20.44% 27.61% 34.79% 41.96% 49.14% 49.14%
Free Cash Flow to Firm 3,223.3 3,148.4 3,045.0 2,909.4 2,737.3 2,938.7
Mid Year Convention 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Discounting Factor 0.932 0.811 0.705 0.613 0.533
PV of FCFF 1,574.2 4,567.5 7,273.4 9,580.5 13,224.1

Expected Growth Rate 7.36%

Terminal Growth Rate 6.50%
WACC 15.02%

Calculation of Terminal Value

Particulars

FCFF(n+1) 3,129.7
Terminal Growth Rate 6.50%
WACC 15.02%
Terminal Value 36,723.1

Calculation of Equity Value Per Share

Particulars

PV of FCFF 36,219.7
PV of Terminal Value 19,562.2
Value of Operating Assets 55,781.9

Add: Cash 843.8

Less: Debt 972.0
Value of Equity 55,653.7
Number of Shares 95.9

Equity Value Per Share 580.2

Share Price 2,800.0

Discount/Premium 382.58% 6.0x