Biden’s foreign policy:

What is in the box for the world and

Pakistan?

Moneeb Jaffar Mir

 Biden’s foreign policy:

What is in the box for the world and

Pakistan?

Moneeb Jaffar Mir

22 Dec 2020
Islamabad Policy Institute, Pakistan
 Issue Brief Biden’s foreign policy

Biden’s foreign policy

What is in the box for the world and Pakistan?

By Moneeb Jaffar Mir

Democratic candidate Joe Biden has won the controversial American presidential election of 2020. The
newly elected president is, however, set to face a host of foreign policy challenges. Many of these
challenges primarily stem from President Trump’s deviation from the traditional American approach to
foreign policy. President Trump pursued unilateralist, transactional, and undisciplined foreign policy. Most
of his foreign policy decisions were whimsical, unpredictable and based on his personal relationships with
foreign leaders. Most notably, his twitter rants also set the foreign policy agenda. In contrast, President-
elect Biden brings decades-long experience in foreign affairs. He has previously served as the chairman of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Vice President. It is, therefore, likely that he would pursue a
traditional foreign policy approach. He has committed that under his presidency, the US would renew its
global leadership by increasing its engagement with the international community. In view of this, Biden
would be mainly focused upon repairing American’s foreign relations and again putting the US in lead on
scores of international challenges.

Some of Biden’s foreign policy postulates:

• Revival of multilateralism:
Biden is inclined to revive multilateralism which eroded under President Trump owing to his ‘America
First’ policy. For instance, Donald Trump, disregarded the phenomenon of global warming. He pulled
America out of the 2015 Paris Climate agreement, a landmark deal aimed to strengthen global response
in the face of imminent threat of climate change. President-elect Biden, however, has a diametrically
opposite view to it. In part Paris Climate agreement is a legacy of President Obama. His stance on
multilateralism can be gauged from a recent statement in which he said “it (multilateralism) makes us
more secure and more successful. We amplify our own strength, extend our presence around the globe,
and magnify our impact while sharing global responsibilities with willing partners”. Keeping that in the
view, he has pledged to prioritize fighting climate change and to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement on
his first day in office. Similarly, he is likely to prioritize multilateral engagement on various other global
issues, such as public health, trade, nuclear non-proliferation, human rights and a rules-based
international order.

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 Issue Brief Biden’s foreign policy

• China
Rising China is not only perceived as a competitor in Washington, but also as a threat. In recent years a
bipartisan consensus has emerged on containing China out of the fear that China could overtake the US
in coming decades, in turn it would reorder the international system. President Donald Trump pursued a
confrontational approach towards China. He engaged in a trade war, as he imposed tariffs on Chinese
imports; and perpetually accused China of unfair trade practices and stealing intellectual property. China
retaliated by imposing similar counter-tariffs on US exports. Meanwhile, military competition in the South
China Sea and Indo-Pacific region also escalated. Here, President Biden is likely to follow a similar policy
approach, albeit a nuanced one. Moreover, President Biden will be able to bridge the Trans-Atlantic
differences and converge European and American outlook towards China, thereby constricting strategic
space for China.

• Relations with allies

The ‘America First’ slogan pioneered by Trump catalyzed the decline of American influence: With the
world losing its confidence in the US leadership; there is a widening trust deficit between the U.S. and its
allies. Donald Trump strained relations with several traditional US allies, including Australia, Canada,
Denmark, France, Germany, and Japan. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) also incurred wrath of
Donald Trump, who criticized the trans-Atlantic alliance’s member states for not contributing enough
towards their own defense, and instead depending on the US for security. Trump called for burden sharing
for the continuity of the alliance. Biden not only aims to restore historic US partnerships with its allies but
also plans to “reimagine” them for the future.

• Russia:
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and subsequently, its alleged interference in 2016 US
presidential election, relations between the US and Russia have nosedived to an all-time low in the post-
cold war era. Nevertheless, Donald Trump seemed inclined to reset relations with Russia and formed a
personal rapport with the Russian president. However, Biden, during his election campaign depicted
Russia as an ‘opponent’ and the ‘biggest threat’ to the American security. It ostensibly remains self-
evident that the US under Biden would be tough on Russia, and along with China, Russia might also prove
to be an issue of bipartisan consensus. Given Biden’s vow to strengthen NATO, it would not be erroneous
to conclude that strengthening of NATO will mainly be aimed at countering resurging Russia.

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 Issue Brief Biden’s foreign policy

• Iran:
Donald Trump withdrew from JCPOA (Joint Action Plan of Action), also known as Iran nuclear deal in 2018
and imposed new sanctions on Iran. The deal was signed between Iran and the P5+1 (China France,
Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) on July 14, 2015. It was a multilateral
agreement aimed at lifting of crippling economic sanctions on Iran in return for its commitment to limit
its sensitive nuclear activities and to allow international inspectors for intrusive inspections of its nuclear
facilities. Joe Biden has indicated preference to rejoin the nuclear agreement with a condition as a two-
step approach, saying, “If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would
rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.”

• India
It is another area where there seems to be a convergence between Biden and Trump. Since bipartisan
consensus exists on deepening relations with India as an important ‘strategic partner’. Under Biden, there
would be continuity in the US policy towards India. However, issues will periodically emerge on which
there will be divergence between Washington and New Delhi. Trump administration pursued a closer
defence and strategic relationship through conclusion of agreements such as Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for sharing of geospatial intelligence. Meanwhile, during Trump era
tensions arose over trade relations between the two countries and professional visas for Indian citizens.
During Biden’s presidency, India and US will work towards addressing trade and visas issues. It is also
expected that Biden administration will raise issues of Hindutva extremism, rising religious intolerance,
and Indian human rights violations in Kashmir with the Modi regime. This will lead to push back from New
Delhi, which could probably strain bilateral relations.
• Pakistan:
Bilateral relations between Pakistan and the US remained tensed in the first two years of Trump’s
presidency. In 2019 a temporary thaw in the bilateral ties emerged due to increasing alignment of
interests on the Afghan peace process. Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan paid a visit to the U.S. in
July 2019 and met Donald Trump at the White House. During this meeting, Trump also offered his
mediation on the lingering Kashmir dispute. He also showed interest in strengthening trade ties with
Pakistan. Despite Pakistan playing a key role in the Afghan Peace process, there was little progress on the
trade front. Additionally, neither has US pushed India to resolve the Kashmir issue nor has it helped
Pakistan to get out of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. As far as its foreign policy approach
towards Pakistan is concerned, the White House under Biden would need Islamabad to play an important

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 Issue Brief Biden’s foreign policy

role in the Afghan peace process. After the successful completion of the Afghan peace process,
Afghanistan chapter in Pak-US relations might close after two decades. It is hoped in Islamabad that the
US will stop looking at Pakistan through Afghan prism and relations with the US will take a fresh start.
However, there are fears of abandonment. It is unclear what would be Islamabad’s value for Washington
and what would keep it interested in Islamabad in post Afghan peace process scenario? What further
heightens these fears is American bonhomie with India, where the US sees India as a counterbalance to
rising China. However, Pakistan-China continue to deepen their strategic relations. In spite of having
difficult relations with China, Washington will most likely not ask Pakistan to choose between China and
the US because it would ultimately push Pakistan more towards China. Owing to the fact that Pakistan is
close to China, the nature of US relations with China in the future could affect Pakistan-US relations.

Conclusion:
It can be argued that Biden would take a traditional foreign policy route to reframe US foreign policy on
various fronts. Contrary to Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, Biden appears to be unwaveringly
determined to revive multilateralism that he believes would help the US to reassert itself at the world
stage. He also seems to be committed to reset relations with American allies that were sidelined during
Trump’s era. China and India remain two areas of convergence, where Biden’s policy doesn’t appear to
be changing much to that of Trump’s. As along with the strategic partnership with India, various other
multilateral platforms would be utilized to contain rising China. Russian resurgence would be given a
stronger opposition, and Iranian nuclear deal would be rejoined under the new administration. Ongoing
US engagement with Pakistan would remain intact until the completion of the Afghan Peace Process.
However, in the aftermath of Afghan Peace Process, the nature of relations between the two countries
remains unclear. Policymakers in Islamabad will have to display skillfulness to choose a suitable way to
approach the new US-administration. The policymakers need to ensure that US-Pakistan relationship that
has long remained dominated by strategic concerns needs to be more dynamic, where more attention is
given to strengthening the economic ties.

*Moneeb Jaffar Mir is a researcher at Islamabad Policy Institute.

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