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Dairy Economy of India: Structural Changes in Consumption and Production

Article in South Asia Research · August 2016

DOI: 10.1177/0262728016638731

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 SOUTH ASIA
R E S E A RC H
www.sagepublications.com
DOI: 10.1177/0262728016638731
Vol. 36(2): 241–260
Copyright © 2016
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles,
London,
New Delhi,
Singapore,
Washington DC
and Melbourne

DAIRY ECONOMY OF INDIA:

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN
CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
Ramphul Ohlan
Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India

abstract India remains the world’s largest producer and consumer

of milk. The present study empirically evaluates the transformations
in demand and supply of dairy products in India, identifying that
the share of dairy products in the food basket has significantly
increased among both rural and urban consumers. While demand
for dairy products is highly elastic and related to income, the
analysis also shows large regional disparities in production and per
capita availability of milk in India. After examining various aspects
of dairy consumption and production patterns in India, the article
also includes policy considerations to improve dairy production.
It suggests that to stimulate dairy sector development and reduce
inequality in dairy products consumption in India, milk and milk
products should be included in the diet provided through the
Midday Meal Schemes for primary education children. Overall,
to meet the growing demand for dairy products, given their role
in food security, the Government of India should continue to aim
for sustained growth.
keywords: Agrarian development, consumption, dairy sector, food
security, India, livestock, Midday Meal Schemes, milk market, rural
economy

Introduction: Importance of the Dairy Sector

The dairy sector is undoubtedly an important component of India’s rural economy in
terms of income, employment, equity, socio-economic development, nutritional food
security, women’s empowerment and also foreign exchange earnings. The sector has
opened new income opportunities for rural households and is an important instrument
to fight poverty and improve the nutritional intake of rural families (Government of
India, 2011). Dairy products contributed about 6.4 per cent of calorie intake in
rural and 8 per cent in urban India in 2009–10, while their contribution in protein
intake was 9 per cent in rural and 13 per cent in urban areas for the same period

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242 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

(NSSO, 2012). Milk and dairy products are a major source of cheap and nutritious
food to millions of Indians (Ohlan, 2012a).
The dairy sector in India has witnessed remarkable growth, which is demand-driven,
inclusive and pro-poor. India is the world’s largest producer and consumer of milk.
With a production of 121.8 million tonnes in 2011, it accounted for 16 per cent of
the world’s total milk production (Ohlan, 2014a). In 2010–11, 29.64 per cent of
India’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) originated in the livestock sector,
with the dairy subsector accounting for approximately 70 per cent of livestock output.
India’s vast resource of livestock plays a vital role in improving the socio-economic
conditions of the rural masses. In addition, the dairy sector provides a large window
of self-employment opportunities, particularly for women. More than 60 per cent of
families involved in dairying belong to the small and marginal farming sector or are
even agricultural labourers. Estimates of employment in animal husbandry suggest
11.44 million persons in principal status and 11.01 million in subsidiary status, which is
5.50 per cent of the total workforce in the country. Out of these 22.45 million persons
engaged in animal husbandry, 16.84 million (75 per cent) are women, showing that the
dairy sector fuels much-needed women’s empowerment and inclusive growth. As India
is also a net exporter of dairy products, in the emerging liberalised farm trade order,
the dairy sector holds great promise as a major source of foreign exchange earnings,
with India’s dairy exports valued at `54,797.42 lakh in 2010–11 (Ohlan, 2014b).1
It is because of rapidly increasing disposable incomes, market development,
population growth, urbanisation, changes in lifestyles and dietary preferences, increased
health, nutrition and diet concerns, together with the growing popularity of dairy
products that the demand for milk and milk products has been growing fast in India
(Ohlan, 2013a). There is still greater need for butter, ghee, cheese, skimmed milk
and other dairy products. It is well documented that consumption patterns in India
have been undergoing dramatic shifts in food demand, away from staple food grains
to high-nutrition higher-value commodities like fruits, vegetables, milk, meat and
eggs (Ali, 2007; Tripathi & Srivastava, 2011; Wiley, 2011). In terms of the share in
consumers’ monthly total food consumption expenditure, dairy products rank second
after cereals with a share of 19.16 per cent in urban India in 2009–10 (NSSO, 2012).
As a chief source of incomes and nutritious food for the majority of India’s rural
poor (Verma et al., 2007), the dairy sector is also crucial for food security. About 70 per
cent of India’s population lives in rural areas. In 2007–08, about 73 per cent of rural
households owned livestock. Small and marginal farmers account for three-quarters of
these livestock-owning households, raising 56 per cent of the bovine and 66 per cent
of the sheep population. Dairying has been considered one of the activities aimed
at alleviating poverty, especially in rural areas in rainfed and drought-prone regions
(Ohlan, 2011). Rural poverty is less in states like Punjab, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir,
Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Gujarat and Rajasthan where dairy accounts for a sizeable
share of agricultural income and employment. For small and marginal producers,
the dairy sector also serves as a productive store of wealth, providing drought power

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 243

and organic fertilisers to improve crop production. Given milk’s nutritional quality,
growing evidence exists on the role of dairy foods in reducing risks of numerous medical
disorders (Sarkar, 2008). The nutritional value of milk is especially high as part of the
diets of growing infants and lactating mothers. Continuing population growth and
rapid inclusive economic growth are expected to drive dairy product demand up sharply.
India has the world’s largest dairy herd, comprised cows and buffalos and the dairy
sector is expected to contribute as an engine of agricultural growth in India’s 12th Five-
Year Plan (2012–17) and beyond, given the rapid growth in demand for animal and
food products. India’s programmes of rural development and economic liberalisation
open significant market-led opportunities for the dairy industry. For example, flagship
programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
(MNREGA), with an annual union budget allocation of US$ 6.6 billion in 2012–13,
created income opportunities at the bottom of the economic pyramid, which is likely
to have contributed to increasing demand for milk and milk products. Overall, as
Indians become more affluent, the demand for dairy products is expected to increase.
To meet the fast growing demand for milk and milk products, milk production in
India needs to be increased.
OECD-FAO (2012) in their joint outlook estimate the average growth rate of
global milk production for the next decade, 2012–21, at 2 per cent, only slightly
below the 2.1 per cent increase witnessed in the last decade. Most of this growth is
anticipated to come from developing countries and India and China alone account for
nearly 40 per cent of these anticipated gains. Dairy product use, expected to increase
by about 30 per cent by 2021, is driven by increasing population, income levels and
the growing influence of retail chains and multinational companies, which facilitate
improved consumer access to such products. Such cross-sector connections confirm
that in-depth understanding of the dynamics of India’s dairy product distribution
and consumption is invaluable for academic exploration as well as policy formation.
Improving the milk production growth rate to meet projected demands is a key
developmental challenge facing the Indian dairy sector today (Government of India,
2012b). But how can this growth rate be enhanced? And, even if India achieves the
targeted milk output levels, is the availability of milk across various regions symmetric?
More importantly, is dairy product consumption across various income groups equally
distributed? What are the recent trends in domestic prices of dairy products in India?
Are changes in composition of the livestock population desirable? A comprehensive
study to address these key questions is lacking and an evaluation of India’s milk and
milk products consumption pattern with the latest available data is warranted.
As the Indian dairy sector is characterised by high fragmentation and is dominated
by the unorganised sector, comprising 70 million rural households, it will also
be informative to explore how the unorganised sector may be converted into a more
organised one. Against this comprehensive backdrop of concerns and questions, the
modest objective of the present study is twofold. First, to analyse significant recent
structural changes and inequality patterns in the consumption of dairy products in

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244 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

India, and second, to investigate the supply-side changes in the dairy sector in India.
The concluding analysis aims to introduce some new ideas for improving access to
milk and milk products.

Methodology and Sources of Data

The impact of changes in disposable income on consumption of dairy products in India
was analysed by estimating the Engle curve in the log-linear form over a period of four
decades, 1970–71 to 2009–10. In order to quantify the inequality in dairy products
consumption across different income classes in both rural and urban areas in India,
we applied two most widely used measures of inequality, the Gini coefficient and the
Robin Hood Index. Details of these econometric methods and of the results are not
presented here, however, and may be obtained directly from the author.
The current study is based on using various primary and secondary data. The data on
milk and milk products consumption and consumer’s expenditure (proxy of income) were
collected from India’s National Sample Survey Organisation Report (NSSO, 2011). The
data on dairy production in India were taken from the official websites of the Food and
Agriculture Organization (see OECD/FAO, 2012). The annual data on milk production
and per capita availability at both national and state levels were taken from government
statistics about basic animal husbandry (Government of India, 2012b). Data on domestic
prices of dairy products in India were harvested from the official website of the Office
of the Chief Economic Advisor, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of
India, New Delhi. The period under analysis for various aspects of dairy economy is
selected based on the availability of the requisite latest data. The data used here have a
high reputation and large acceptance in research and policy analysis.

Food Consumption Patterns

Examining the transformation in demand for dairy products in India, we use the
NSSO (2011) data. A useful mechanism to predict the possible future changes in
demand for dairy products is to study the temporal change in the expenditure on milk
and milk products across the country. Table 1 illustrates trends in the estimates for food
consumption patterns in India on a rural–urban basis in terms of percentage share of
various food items in total monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) for
all income classes over the period 1987–88 to 2009–10.
Table 1 reveals that food continues to dominate consumer expenditure. Within food
items, cereals remain dominant in both rural and urban areas; however, their share
in consumers’ total food expenditure has continued to fall throughout the last three
decades (see also Ali, 2007). This decline is largest among all the item groups, from
41.25 per cent to 29.29 per cent in rural India and from 26.77 per cent to 22.36 per cent
in urban India. Similarly, the share of food expenditure in total consumer expenditure
has registered a marked decline from 64 per cent in rural India and 56.4 per cent in
urban India in 1987–88 to 53.6 per cent in rural India and 40.7 per cent in urban
India in 2009–10, a decline of 10.4 and 15.7 percentage points respectively.

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 Table 1 Consumption Pattern of Food Items, 1987–88 to 2009–10

Rural (%) Urban (%)

Items 1987–88 1993–94 1999–2000 2004–05 2009–10 1987–88 1993–94 1999–2000 2004–05 2009–10
Milk & milk products 13.44 15.03 14.79 15.43 16.04 16.84 17.92 18.16 18.59 19.16
Meat, egg & fish 5.16 5.22 5.55 5.99 6.53 6.38 6.22 6.47 6.35 6.63
Cereals 41.25 38.45 37.48 32.85 29.29 26.77 25.78 25.89 23.76 22.36
Grams 0.31 0.32 0.17 0.18 0.37 0.35 0.37 0.21 0.24 0.25
Pulses & products 6.25 6.01 6.39 5.63 6.90 6.03 5.48 5.85 4.94 6.63
Edible oil 7.81 6.96 6.22 8.35 6.90 9.40 8.04 6.47 8.24 6.39
Vegetables 8.13 9.49 10.42 11.07 11.57 9.40 10.05 10.65 10.59 10.57
Fruits & nuts 2.50 2.69 2.86 3.45 2.99 4.43 4.94 5.01 5.18 5.16
Sugar 4.53 4.91 4.03 4.36 4.48 4.26 4.39 3.34 3.53 3.69
Salt & spices 4.53 4.27 5.04 4.54 4.48 4.08 3.66 4.59 4.00 3.69
Beverages, etc. 6.09 6.65 7.06 8.17 10.45 12.06 13.16 13.36 14.59 15.48

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TFE (Rs/month) 101.2 180.8 289.3 307.9 510.8 141.0 254 410 469 755
TFE as % of TCE 64.0 63.2 59.5 55.1 53.6 56.4 54.7 47.9 42.5 40.7
Source: Author’s calculation based on NSSO (2011) data.
Notes: TFE = total food expenditure, TCE = total consumer expenditure.
246 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

The research undertaken here confirms that milk and milk products are the second
most important items in consumer food expenditure. They commanded a share of
16.04 per cent in rural and 19.16 per cent in urban India in 2009–10, up from 13.44
per cent in rural and 16.84 per cent in urban India in 1987–88. It turns out that the
expenditure on milk and milk products has grown in both relative and absolute terms.
Furthermore, dairy products constitute a larger share in consumer expenditure in
urban centres than in rural areas. On average, growth in dairy product consumption
in urban areas is steady and higher, compared with rural areas.
The reverse has been observed for pulses and grams. This confirms that urbanisation
has led to lower total pulses consumption, but higher dairy product use. This increased
share of milk and milk products in total food expenditure has been accompanied by
growing shares of beverages, fish, meat, vegetables, fruits and nuts, perhaps partially due
to higher inflation in the prices of fish, meat, vegetables and fruits. Other major items in
the consumer food basket include edible oils and sugar. Over the last two decades, the
share of milk and milk products in consumers’ food expenditure has clearly increased in
both urban and rural areas. These results, indicating that with increasing income levels
the composition of food consumption has witnessed considerable changes, too, lend
further support to the finding of Jones et al. (2003), who argue that income changes
affect not only the level, but also the composition of food consumption. In parallel,
Table 1 also shows that within total consumption expenditure, Indian consumers
spend more on non-food items such as durables and services.2 The shares of non-food
items rose from 36 per cent to 46.4 per cent for the rural population and from 43.6
per cent to 59.3 per cent in urban areas since 1987–88.
As reported by the Government of India on nutritional intake in India (NSSO,
2012), between 1993–94 and 2009–10, the contribution of milk and milk products
to protein intake rose from 3 per cent in the lowest decile class to 15 per cent in the
highest in the rural sector and from 5 per cent to 18 per cent in the urban sector
among the same income deciles. Similarly, the share of milk and milk products in
total calorie intake grew by about 1.4 per cent in urban sectors and 0.6 per cent in
rural sectors during the same period. Likewise, rural sectors record an increase of
about 1 per cent in the contribution of milk and milk products to protein intake,
while the corresponding urban figure is 2 per cent. This confirms that dairy products
have become increasingly important food items in both rural and urban areas in India
during the last two decades.
Concerning state-level variations in dairy products consumption, it has been
observed that 4 of the 17 major states have a rural population with per capita
expenditure markedly higher than the national rural average. Rural Haryana has nearly
four times the national average, rural Punjab more than three times and rural Rajasthan
and Gujarat each show one and a half times to over twice the national average. Rural
Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have per capita expenditures close to the all-India
average. In all other 11 major states, the per capita expenditure of the rural population
on milk and milk products is appreciably less than the national average.

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 247

An analysis of information on cereal consumption patterns against total consumer

expenditure by population deciles (NSSO, 2011) shows that with upward movements
in consumption deciles the share of dairy products in total food expenditure increases
considerably, whereas the share of other food items declines in rural areas. Similarly,
the share of total food expenditure of the top income decile consumer in his total
consumption expenditure is low. Expenditure on dairy products increases from `14.84/
month to `213.33/month as expenditure (proxy of income) rises from `404.6/month
to `2330.6/month, a 1337.53 per cent jump. It may be noted here that in absolute
terms also, this figure is highest among all other food items. This indicates buoyant
dairy products demand with income growth. Different types of food products indicate
quite different consumption behaviour in relation to income. Dairy products, in
particular, show sustained rise with higher incomes.
For urban areas, however, regarding consumer expenditure at bottom decile, the
share of milk and milk products in consumers’ total food expenditure as noted is
higher than in rural areas. At higher levels of consumer expenditure, dairy products
become major food items. As in rural areas, in urban zones as well, the share of dairy
products in consumers’ total food expenditure increases significantly with an increase
in expenditure levels. Expenditure on dairy products increases from `34.25/month
to `295.32/month as expenditure rises from `554.7/month to `5,608.19/month, a
762.25 per cent growth. In absolute terms, too, spending on dairy products is much
higher in urban areas than in rural areas, irrespective of expenditure decile. Given
this evidence that in both rural and urban areas, dairy product consumption has
risen significantly with growing income levels, economic development and poverty
alleviation everywhere, particularly in rural areas, will have a large positive effect on
dairy product demand in India. Demand growth would be sharper if incomes of the
upper deciles of the population were to rise significantly.

Milk Utilisation Patterns in India

Analysing now the product-wise milk utilisation pattern in India, Table 2 shows that,
in various forms, milk has long been an integral part of local food ways and confirms
that the share of liquid milk has significantly increased.
This table confirms above all the significant position of liquid milk as an important
component in Indian diets. Apart from drinking milk directly, Indian tea and coffee
consumers use plenty of milk. Nearly 46 per cent of the total milk produced in India
is consumed as liquid milk, while the remaining 54 per cent are converted into various
dairy products, both traditional and Western, such as butter, milk powder, ice cream,
cheese and condensed milk, or is used for making various kinds of sweetmeats, with
distinct regional preferences. Traditionally, much milk was converted into ghee, used as
a cooking medium mainly in the Indian sub-continent, and also the chief dairy product
exported from India. The share of traditional Indian dairy products is about 50 per cent.
The rather low 4 per cent share of Western dairy products reflects that for lower income
groups in particular, preference for traditional Indian dairy products remains strong.
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248 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

Table 2 Milk Utilisation Patterns in India, 1943–2004

Product (in %) 1943* 1956 2004

Liquid Milk 28.0 39.2 46.0
Ghee/Makhan (clarified butter) 58.7 46.0 33.0
Dahi (yogurt-like) 5.2 8.8 7.0
Khoya (partially desiccated milk) 5.0 4.4 7.0
Chhana & Paneer (unprocessed cottage cheese) 3.1 1.6 3.0
Western Products: Milk Powder, etc. – – 4.0
Source: Gupta (2007: 32).
Note: * = Including Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The responsiveness of demand for dairy products with respect to change in income was
also analysed using time series data derived from various NSSO rounds of household
consumption surveys from 1970–71 to 2009–10. Details of these analyses are not
reproduced here and may be obtained from the author. The income elasticity of demand
worked out to be less than one in both rural and urban areas. This finding reveals that
over time, milk and milk products consumption would rise significantly with income
growth, especially in rural areas. These results are sharply different from those reported
in Gandhi and Zhou (2010) and Rakotoarisoa and Gulati (2006). Clearly, though,
income growth is likely to translate into a sizeable demand for milk and milk products.

Movements in Domestic Prices of Dairy Products

We first note that the domestic price index of all dairy products has exhibited an
uninterrupted rising trend. It picked up from 99.4 in 2005–06 to 165.69 in 2011–12.
As shown in Table 3, this upward movement in the dairy products price index is equal
to a compound annual growth rate of 9.13 per cent. According to our estimates, during
2005–11, the price of raw milk has grown faster than other dairy products, showing a
compound annual growth rate of 11.44 per cent. It is closely followed by ghee, with
a compound growth of 11.35 per cent a year.
The annual growth in price index was registered as 8.98 per cent for butter,
8.84 per cent for powder milk, 5.40 per cent for condensed milk, but notably only
2.90 per cent for ice cream. The domestic prices of dairy products are influenced by a

Table 3 Compound Annual Growth Rates of Dairy Products Price Indices, 2005–11

Dairy Products Powder Milk Ghee Butter Ice Cream Condensed Milk Milk
9.13* 8.84* 11.35* 8.98* 2.90* 5.40* 11.44*
Source: Author’s calculation.
Note: * indicates that growth rate is statistically significant at 1 per cent level.

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 249

number of factors, including: (1) the cost of production and domestic supply of milk,
(2) the consumer demand for milk and its various product forms, (3) seasonality in
milk production and (4) dairy products import and export policies. No one of these
dominates in the pricing of dairy products but each contributes in some measure to
the complex dairy products pricing process. A comparison of domestic price index of
dairy products with that of the international price index brings out that international
prices of dairy products have fluctuated over the years, while domestic prices in India
exhibited a consistent rise. The fact that the fluctuations in international prices of
dairy products have not been transmitted into the Indian markets may partially be
due to government regulation on the trade of dairy products in India. Overall, it may
be concluded here that the international prices of dairy products have been more
volatile than Indian domestic prices. This offers some security to the milk producers.

Transformations in India’s Dairy Products Supply

As outlined in the introductory section, the performance of the dairy sector in India
during the last four decades has been really impressive. From being a recipient of
massive food aid from the World Food Programme and the World Bank, India has
rapidly positioned itself as the world’s largest producer of milk, progressing from a
situation of scarcity to one of plenty. Milk production in India, including the milk
of cows, buffalos, goat, camel and sheep, has grown steadily, increasing from 17
million tonnes in 1950–51 to 31.6 million tonnes by 1980, then jumping to 128.9
million tonnes in 2011–12, a 304.75 per cent increase. Credit for this goes largely to
the successful implementation of the White Revolution, in conjunction with other
dairy development programmes implemented by state and central governments. This
transformed India from a country of acute milk shortage to the world’s largest producer
and has elevated the per capita availability of milk from 112 gm/day to 289.4 gm/day
during the same period. This is now comparable with global per capita availability of
milk at 289.31 gm/day for the same period (Ohlan, 2014a). Still, this is insufficient
for a large lacto-vegetarian populated country like India. Backed by strong domestic
demand, per capita availability of milk is anticipated to reach 336 gm/day in 2017
(Ohlan, 2014b).
As reported by the Government of India (2012a) in the National Dairy Plan-
Phase 1, by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan in 2017, demand for milk is expected
to increase to 155 million tonnes, reaching 200 million tonnes by 2020–21. To achieve
these targeted output levels, the required growth rate of milk production would be over
5 per cent annually for the next 15 years, while milk production grew by about 3.5
per cent per year in the recent past (Ohlan, 2013b). Unless milk production increases
significantly, as planned, there may be adverse effects on self-sufficiency. A larger
demand–supply gap could lead India to become a net importer of dairy products in
the near future.3 The growth trends in production and per capita availability of milk
in India during the last six decades are shown in Figure 1.

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 Figure 1 Trends in Production and Per capita Availability of Milk in India

160 350
146
138
140 132 300
128
120 116122
112
108 250
103
100 97
93
86 88 200
78 81 84
80 72 75
64 66 69
61 150
60 56 58
51 54
Availability (gm/day)

48
44 46 47

Production (million tonnes)

36 39 42 100
40 30 32 34
23
19 20 21 50
20 17

0 0

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1950
1955
1960
1968
1973
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Year
Source: Author’s calculation.
Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 251

Table 4 Compound Annual Growth Rates of Milk Production in India

1950–60 1960–73 1973–1980 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–10

1.64* 1.15* 4.51* 5.48* 4.11* 4.5*
Source: Author’s calculation.
Note: * indicates that growth rate is statistically significant at 1 per cent level.

It is seen from this figure that throughout the 1950s and 1960s, India’s milk production
was virtually stagnant, and annual production growth was negative in many years.
Thereafter, however, it has grown substantially, so that overall, Figure 1 above reveals a
substantial growth momentum in milk production, which results in higher availability
of milk and milk products for India’s growing population. The per capita availability
of milk, which increased slightly from 130 gm/day in 1950 to 132 gm/day in 1955,
started to decline in 1960 and dropped to 110 gm/day in 1973. Thereafter, however,
it started to improve, increasing substantially during the 1980s and 1990s, to reach
222 gm/day in 2001. The per capita availability of milk has reached a level of 281 gm/
day in 2010, still slightly lower than the world average of 284 gm/day. In 2011–12,
it stands at about 289 gm/day, just comparable to the world average (Ohlan, 2014a),
but not considered sufficient for the large lacto-vegetarian population of India.
Table 4 provides the decade-wise compound annual growth rates of total milk
production in India over the period 1950–2010. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s
milk production in India was virtually stagnant and annual production growth was
negative in many years.
The compound annual growth rate of milk production was 1.64 per cent per
annum during the decade of 1950s, declining to 1.15 per cent during 1960–73. As
discussed, this resulted in a downward trend in per capita availability of milk, which
was already quite low. The growth rate of milk production then increased from 1.15
per cent per annum during 1960–73 to 4.51 per cent per annum during 1973–80
and further to 5.48 per cent per annum during 1980–90. It declined again slightly
to 4.11 per cent per annum during 1990–2000 and improved again to 4.5 per cent
per annum during 2000–10.
It seems that the resulting expansion of the dairy sector in India has been
achieved through two noteworthy evolutions: First, the successful implementation
of the White Revolution programme in conjunction with other dairy development
programmes implemented by the state and central governments. Second, growing
demand was driven, as indicated in the introduction, by increased population,
higher incomes, growing urbanisation, rural development programmes like the
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA), export
opportunities and changing food habits, including heightened awareness about the
benefits of milk consumption. This development was accompanied by an even more
marked increase in the number of dairy species and improvement in milk yields. It
represents sustained growth in the availability of dairy products for the increasing

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252 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

population of the country, apart from being an important source of income for the
rural poor.
Regarding the cost of milk production, India is a competitive producer in the
world. India’s average cost of milk production on a farm of two cows was reported to
be US$ 23 per tonne in 2006. The corresponding figures for Switzerland and Finland
were US$ 86 and US$ 72 per tonne, respectively. However, India’s milk processing
industry is not price-competitive, which is why India needs import regulations for
dairy products (Ohlan, 2012b).
Concerning annual growth trends in production of dairy products, we note from the
available data that the production of butter and ghee has not seen any setback during
the last decade in terms of volume, which increased more than threefold, from 1.04
lakh tonnes in 1990 to 3.38 lakh tonnes in 2011. The production of skimmed milk
powder (SMP) has also exhibited a rising trend, but witnessed a marked fluctuating
trend over the last decades. It increased from 30,000 tonnes in 1990 to 90,800 tonnes
in 1996. Afterwards, it jumped from 132.93 in 1998 to its peak of 165.88 in 1999,
before declining again to 128.58 in 2001. Thereafter, it again began to grow and
reached 163.01 thousand tonnes in 2008. During 2009–11, SMP production in India
has experienced a declining trend, dropping to 132.62 million tonnes in 2011, which
may partially be due to a ban on export of SMP.

Decomposition of Milk Growth

The relative contribution of the number of milch animals, their yield and the interaction
with changes in milk production in India in percentage term are presented in Table 5.
The results of the decomposition analysis suggest that during 1980–2011, on average,
growth in milk production has mainly been because of an increase in the numbers of
dairy species, a contribution of 40.62 per cent, rather than yield.
During the 1990s, the animal effect declined to 27.29 per cent, and consequently
the milk production growth rate also remained sluggish at 4.60 per cent per annum
for the same period. During the 2000s, the compound annual growth rate of
number of animals improved slightly from 1.31 per cent during the 1990s to 1.83
per cent during the 2000s, but yield declined faster from 3.24 per cent to 2.20 per
cent during the same period. Therefore, the compound annual growth rate of milk

Table 5 Decomposition of Milk Production Growth in India, 1980–2011

Time Yield Effect (%) Animal Effect (%) Interaction Effect (%)
1980–2011 27.86 40.62 31.52
1980–90 17.28 73.78 8.94
1991–2000 62.05 27.69 10.27
2001–11 37.80 48.52 13.68
Source: Author’s calculation.

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 253

production has not increased. It is abundantly clear, then, that to accelerate the
growth tempo of milk production, India urgently needs to increase the number of
dairy animals and their yield. While milk production in India has overall increased
significantly during the last three decades, there remains much room for qualitative
improvement. Additionally, it is imperative to understand the regional patterns of
milk supply growth in India.

Regional Patterns of Milk Growth

In this regard, we note large variations in milk production within the country. The chief
contributors are the northern and western regions, together accounting for almost 65
per cent of India’s total milk production. The contribution from the East is extremely
low at 12 per cent in 2010. The Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (Government
of India, 2012b) show that over the last decade, the northern and southern regions
have experienced a decline in their relative contribution to national milk production,
while the share contributed by the eastern region has increased. The western region
has maintained its position.
An analysis of state-wise shares of milk production shows that over 80 per cent of
India’s total milk production comes from ten states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Andhra
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana
and Tamil Nadu. There have been some notable shifts in the shares of different states.
In 2000–01, the top five milk producing states were Uttar Pradesh (17.19 per cent),
Punjab (9.65 per cent), Rajasthan (9.25 per cent), Maharashtra (7.26 per cent) and
Andhra Pradesh (6.85 per cent), accounting for more than half of India’s total milk
production. In 2010–11, Uttar Pradesh remained the largest producer (17.95 per cent)
with about 20.2 million tonnes, followed by Andhra Pradesh (10.4 million, 9.27
per cent), Rajasthan (9.5 million, 8.48 per cent), Punjab (9.3 million, 8.34 per cent)
and Gujarat (8.8 million, 7.86 per cent). The shares of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi and Nagaland increased between
2000–01 and 2010–11, while the share of Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra, Haryana,
Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, West Bengal, Kerala, Orissa and all other smaller states and
territories declined during this period. The major milk producing regions in the country
have good resource endowment and infrastructure. As noted, the eastern region is still
lagging behind in terms of dairy development.
Overall, there are large variations in the contribution of different states in total
milk production in India. Table 6 illustrates the distribution of leading milk producing
states according to average annual growth rates in milk production during the 1980s,
1990s and 2000s.
During the 1980s, none of the major milk producing states witnessed less than 3
per cent growth rate, and five states had a growth rate of 3–5 per cent, while 12 states
experienced more than 5 per cent growth in milk production. However, during the
1990s, there was a deceleration in the milk production growth rate and five states

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254 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

Table 6 Compound Annual Growth Rates of Milk Production in Major Milk Producing
States, 1981–2010

Growth Rate (%) 1980s 1990s 2000s 1981–2010

3 – Assam, Bihar, Uttaranchal, WB, TN, HP,
HP, MP and WB WB, TN and Assam and
Punjab, Haryana, Kerala
Chhattisgarh,
J&K, HP, Assam,
Karnataka and
Kerala
3–5 AP, Assam, Gujarat, MP, UP, UP, J&K,
Haryana, Orissa Haryana, Kerala, Rajasthan & Rajasthan, MP,
and Rajasthan Maharashtra, Maharashtra Maharashtra,
Punjab, Punjab, Haryana
Rajasthan, TN and Karnataka
and UP
5 Bihar, Gujarat, AP, J&K, Bihar, Orissa, Bihar, AP,
HP, J&K, Karnataka and AP, Jharkhand Gujarat and
Karnataka, Orissa and Gujarat Orissa
Kerala, MP,
Maharashtra,
Punjab, UP and
WB
Source: Author’s calculations.
Notes: Andhra Pradesh (AP), Himachal Pradesh (HP), Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Madhya Pradesh
(MP), Tamil Nadu (TN), Uttar Pradesh (UP) and West Bengal (WB).

registered a growth rate of less than 3 per cent. During the 2000s, the number of states
that witnessed less than 3 per cent growth rates increased from 5 during the 1990s
to 11 during the 2000s. These include: Uttaranchal (2.7 per cent), West Bengal (2.5
per cent), Tamil Nadu (2.4 per cent), Punjab (2.3 per cent), Haryana (2 per cent),
Chhattisgarh (2 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (1.9 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (1.8
per cent), Assam (1.2 per cent), Karnataka (0 per cent) and Kerala (–0.8 per cent).
As noted above, the compound annual growth rate at the national level is recorded at
4.5 per cent. In Madhya Pradesh (4.4 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (4.3 per cent), Rajasthan
(3.2 per cent) and Maharashtra (3 per cent), the milk production growth rate was
between 3 to 5 per cent. Only Bihar (12.1 per cent), Orissa (8.4 per cent), Andhra
Pradesh (7 per cent), Jharkhand (6.6 per cent) and Gujarat (5.6 per cent) recorded
more than 5 per cent compound annual growth rate. The average annual growth rate
of milk production is higher in eastern states and lower in northern states. Overall,
the above discussion confirms that the growth rate of milk production in India has
been sluggish during recent years.

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 255

The average per capita milk availability remains lower in eastern and southern states
and higher in northern states. This may partially be attributable to (a) food habits,
(b) density of bovine population, (c) agricultural practices and (d) human population
pressure. The average per capita availability of milk during the triennium ending
in 2010 was highest in Punjab (952 gm/day), followed by Haryana (642 gm/day),
Gujarat (402 gm/day), Rajasthan (401 gm/day), Jammu & Kashmir (377 gm/day),
Uttaranchal (364 gm/day), Himachal Pradesh (357 gm/day), Andhra Pradesh (319
gm/day) and Uttar Pradesh (278 gm/day). Only nine states had higher than national
per capita availability of milk.
According to official figures (NSSO, 2011), in 2009–10 the average per capita
expenditure on consumption of milk and dairy products was lower in rural areas
(`80.55) as compared to urban areas (`137.01). This may partially be due to lower
prices of milk and lower per capita incomes in rural areas. However, the relative share
of milk products in the total per capita monthly expenditure in rural areas (7.64
per cent) is likely to be higher than in urban areas (6.9 per cent), also given the larger
presence of the informal sector at that level. Generally, these results indicate considerable
disparities in the level of milk production and per capita availability across different
states, and they are consistent with an earlier study (Sharma, 2004).
However, the level of per capita milk availability provides only a statistical picture,
which is not likely to be directly valid for any group of people. It is therefore instructive
to examine the extent of inequality in dairy products consumption. This was analysed
by the author using the Gini coefficient and Robin Hood Index. Again, details of
this are not provided here and may be obtained from the author. It was found that
inequality in dairy products consumption was higher in rural areas than in urban
areas. A comparison of Gini coefficients from the 2009–10 survey with those obtained
from the survey of 2004–05 brought out that intersection disparity in dairy products
consumption slightly declined in both rural and urban areas of India over the last
decade, but the gap was still wide.

Growth of Livestock Population in India

This section discusses the growth pattern of livestock population in India, which owns
one of the largest livestock populations in the world. According to the most recent
livestock census undertaken in 2007, the country has about 199.1 million cattle and
105.3 million buffaloes. The Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (Government of
India, 2012b) indicate that with 56.7 per cent of the world’s buffaloes, 12.5 per cent
of cattle, 20 per cent small ruminants, 2.4 per cent camels, 1.4 per cent equines, 1.5
per cent pigs and 3.1 per cent poultry India ranks first in respect of buffaloes, second
in cattle and goats, third in sheep, fifth in ducks and chickens and tenth in camel
population in the world.
According to those figures, between 1951 and 2007, India’s livestock population
increased from 292.9 million to 529.7 million. The cattle population increased from

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256 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

155.3 million to 175.1 million during the same period. A decline in the total cattle
population has been observed during 1992–2003, however. Notably, this was mainly
due to a reduction in the population of male cattle, probably due to increasing
mechanisation of agriculture in India.
Right since 1970, when the ‘Operation Flood’ programme was introduced by
India’s National Dairy Development Board (NDDB), the share of adult female
cattle in the total cattle population has exhibited a rising trend (Gautam & Pathak,
2010), confirming the importance given to maintaining adult female cattle for milk
production. The adult female cattle population grew by almost 0.6 per cent per year
between 1951 and 2007, while the adult female buffalo population grew more than
four times faster (2.8 per cent per year) during the same period. The adult female
buffalo stock witnessed a particularly significant acceleration in growth tempo (4.06
per cent per year) during 1982 to 1987. The rate of increase in the adult female cattle
(3.29 per cent per year) population was highest between 2003 and 2007 among all
the periods considered. It appears that the importance of adult female buffaloes in
the Indian dairy sector is increasing. The buffalo share in the total bovine population
increased from 11 per cent in 1951 to 18 per cent in 2007. On average, the total
livestock population has grown faster than the bovine population, whose share in total
livestock population has come down from 68 per cent in 1951 to 57 per cent in 2007.
Ohlan (2013b) observed that in 2009–10, India’s major milk species were buffalo
(53 per cent), cow (43.3 per cent) and goat (3.7 per cent). While buffaloes yield less
milk than crossbred cows, the buffalo population recorded a faster growth rate than
cattle. Nevertheless, the faster increase in yield from increasing adoption of crossbreed
cows has resulted in the relative share of cows and buffaloes remaining constant. Based
on the foregoing analysis, it may be argued that adoption of crossbred cows can provide
a valuable growth momentum to milk output in India. It may be added here that
milch animal holding is far more equitable than land holding and, as noted, the cost
of milk production by smallholders in India remains competitive. Overall, it may be
concluded here that in order to foster the growth of milk production in India, there
is an urgent need for increase in the growth rate of female cattle.

National Dairy Plan

To increase the depth of analysis and connect the subject to national policy planning, a
brief introduction to India’s National Dairy Plan (NDP) is pertinent here. To meet the
projected national demand of 150 million tonnes of milk by 2016–17, the Government
of India, with assistance of the World Bank, has launched a National Dairy Plan (NDP)
with an outlay of `1,760 crore,4 out of which `1,584 crore come from International
Development Association (IDA) credit and `176 crore is the Government of India’s
share. The NDP envisages increasing the productivity in existing herds through a
focused programme for breeding and feeding. The first phase of the NDP will be
implemented over a period of six years, during 2012–13 to 2018–19, with two main

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 257

objectives: (a) to increase the milk production by improving productivity through

scientific breeding and nutrition and (b) to enhance the market access of small rural
milk producers through the organised milk-processing sector for sale of surplus milk.
The NDP will focus on 14 leading milk producing states, namely Punjab, Haryana,
Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka,
Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The scheme will be
implemented by the National Dairy Development Board through End Implementing
Agencies (EIAs) located in the states. Under the NDP, steps will be taken to expand
village-based procurement systems by strengthening existing cooperatives and
facilitating the setting up of Producer Companies or New Generation Cooperatives.
The plan is expected to put in place a scientific approach and a systematic process
that will take the country on the path to improving the genetics of milk producing
animals and encourage the use of modern, proven technologies in milk production.
The government’s important schemes/programmes for meeting the growing demand
for milk include (1) an intensive dairy development programme, (2) strengthening
infrastructure for quality and clean milk production, (3) assistance to cooperatives
and (4) a dairy entrepreneurship development scheme.

Concluding Remarks and Outlook

This article evaluated the recent transformations in demand and supply of dairy
products, investigated regional patterns of milk growth and per capita availability,
trends in domestic prices of dairy products, the impact of changes in income levels
on consumption of dairy products in both rural and urban areas and the variations in
dairy product consumption at various income levels in India. The study documents
a constant rise in demand for dairy products in India. The consumption patterns of
dairy products illustrate increased consumption of milk and milk products in both
rural and urban areas, with the average consumer expenditure remaining lower in rural
than in urban areas. As consumer expenditure on dairy products rises rapidly with
expenditure levels in both rural and urban areas, at higher expenditure level, milk and
milk products dominate consumer food expenditure, while within the dairy products
group, liquid milk continues to hold a dominant share. The prices of dairy products
have witnessed a sharp upward movement during the last decade and demand for dairy
products is shown to be highly responsive to changes in disposable incomes in both
rural and urban areas. One may conclude overall that the performance of the dairy
sector in India has been very impressive during the last three decades. Milk production
and per capita availability have increased more than three and twofold, respectively.
However, the growth in milk production declined during the 1990s compared to the
1980s, and did not fully recover even during the 2000s.
Large variations in production and per capita availability of milk exist across various
regions. The northern and western regions account for almost two thirds of the total
milk production, while the contribution from the East is extremely low. However, the

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258 South Asia Research Vol. 36(2): 241–260

average annual growth rate of milk production in eastern states has been increasing and
has outpaced that of northern states during the last decade. Nonetheless, the average per
capita milk availability is still lower in eastern and southern states and higher in northern
states. This implies untapped milk growth potentials in eastern and southern regions,
suggesting that especially in the eastern region, milk production may still be increased.
Finally, we observe that in recent years, the growth tempo of the adult female cattle
population has declined while that of the adult female buffalo population has improved.
Overall, the share of bovines has declined while that of bovines has increased during
the last five and a half decades (see also Ali & Pappa, 2015). Significantly, the male
bovine population has declined whereas the number of productive female bovines
has increased, showing a shift towards bovines as milch animals. Faster adoption of
crossbred cows may further augment the supply of milk in India. The implication
is that there is an urgent need to develop a long-term appropriate breeding policy.
The article also identified that the utilisation patterns of milk in India is very
different from that in many Western countries, the primary reason being conventional
dietary habits of Indian households. Consumption of milk in India is skewed towards
liquid milk, with around 46 per cent of milk consumed in liquid form, while around
50 per cent of total milk production is converted into various dairy products and only
4 per cent of total milk production is used for Western dairy products.
Regarding the benefits of milk consumption, an important further policy connection
is made here regarding the provision of milk for school children. It is well known that
with a view of achieving universal primary education of satisfactory quality for all
schoolchildren below the age of 14, enhancing enrolment, retention, attendance and
simultaneously improving nutritional levels is a desirable policy. India runs Midday
Meal Schemes for primary schoolchildren, mainly through government-owned schools.
It is widely documented that government-run schools in India are dominated by
children from low-income families, girls, low caste children and other underprivileged
children (Aggarwal, 2000; Kumar et al., 2005: 1551). In order to reduce inequities,
including the inequality in dairy product consumption across various income levels,
milk and milk products should be included in the diet provided through the Midday
Meal Scheme under the National Programme of Nutritional Support to Primary
Education. This would help to alleviate malnutrition among children in India.
Finally, it may be added here that the world dairy market is very thin, as 86 per
cent of the world’s milk production does not enter international trade (Ohlan, 2012c).
Based on the present findings, it may be suggested that to meet the growing domestic
demand of an increasing population for milk and milk products, the Government of
India should continue to focus on sustained growth of milk production. To increase
overall milk supply in India and speed up dairy product generation, Ohlan (2012c)
earlier suggested several key measures which have lost none of their relevance:
(1) increase in the adoption of crossbreed cows, (2) developing farmers’ own milk
processing and packaging capacity, (3) developing dairy hubs for smallholder farmers,
(4) remunerative prices to milk producers, (5) strengthening and expanding village-level

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Ohlan: Dairy Economy of India 259

infrastructure for milk procurement, (6) providing milk producers greater access to the
market in the dairy sector, (7) use of scientific practices, (8) strengthening infrastructure
for quality and clean milk production, (9) upgrading of veterinary health services,
(10) improvements in fertility, (11) adequate availability of feed and fodder in all
seasons and (12) building market institutions to commercialise dairy production.

Notes
1. One lakh is 100,000.
2. On changing household consumption patterns, see Mathew and Goyari (2011).
3. Even if one considers the supply of synthetic milk, prepared by emulsifying vegetable oils
with appropriate amounts of detergent and urea products in Indian dairy markets, it may be
concluded that India has not yet achieved self-sufficiency in milk production despite being
a net exporter.
4. One crore is 10 million.

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Ramphul Ohlan is an Assistant Professor (Stage II) of Economics in the Institute

of Management Studies and Research at Maharshi Dayanand University in Rohtak,
Haryana, India. He holds a PhD in Economics from Kurukshetra University and
has contributed to several international journals. His main research interests lie in
international trade laws, WTO, dairy economics and equity in South Asia.
Address: Institute of Management Studies and Research, Maharshi Dayanand
University, Rohtak 124001, Haryana, India. [e-mail: ramphul.ramphul@gmail.com]

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