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National Institute of Labour Economics
Research and Development Editor
Reflecting on
India’s
Development
Employment, Skill and Health
Reflecting on India’s Development
National Institute of Labour Economics Research
and Development (NILERD)
Editor
Reflecting on India’s
Development
Employment, Skill and Health
123
Editor
National Institute of Labour Economics
Research and Development (NILERD)
Delhi, India
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Preface
v
vi Preface
vii
Contents
Part 1
Revisiting Growth–Employment Relationship in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Yogesh Kumar, Arup Mitra and Kailash Pradhan
Regional Imbalances in MSME Growth in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Yogesh Kumar, Gayatri Pandey, A. P. William Wordsworth
and J. S. Chauhan
Growth and Structural Changes in Indian
Economy—An Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Anil K. Yadav and Jerry Joseph
Structural Transformation and Its Impact on Rural–Urban
Households in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
P. C. Parida and K. C. Pradhan
Part 2
Skill Development Efforts in Higher Education to Fulfil
the Objective of Make in India: Trends and Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
G. P. Joshi and Sanchita Bhattacharya
Nurturing Skill Development in Organized Sector—Chaos
in Institutional Set-up: Experiences from an Industrial
Region in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
M. R. Prasad, Shachi Joshi, D. Indrakumar, V. K. Saxena
and Tapas Kumar Sarangi
Technology Transfer to the Farmers and Role of KVKs . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Shachi Joshi, D. Indrakumar and Neha Kumra
Impact of Education on Labour Market Outcomes
in Rural and Urban India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
K. C. Pradhan, P. C. Parida and Tapas Sarangi
ix
x Contents
Part 3
Tribal Research Institutes (TRIs) Revisited: An Outcome
Perspective Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
A. P. William Wordsworth and Yogesh Kumar
Gender Studies: A Theoretical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Indu Shekhar and Ruby Dhar
Gender Inequality: A Comparison of India and USA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Ruby Dhar, Ved Prakash and Bhoop Singh
Functioning of SHGs with a Special Focus on an Indian
State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
Ajjarapu Kamala Devi, Tapas Kumar Sarangi and Renu Lal
Gender Digital Divide in India: Impacting Women’s
Participation in the Labour Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Sharmistha Sinha
Sanitation Programmes in India: An Evaluation Study
with Special Reference to Health and Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Ruby Dhar, Anita Kakkar and Chaitali Roy
Exploring the Reasons for Non-utilization of Family Planning
and Reproductive Health Services in Kanpur Nagar District
of Uttar Pradesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
Richa Sharma
Introduction
India’s economic development since 1991 has crossed several milestones, but at the
same time, it has been staggering on certain other fronts. Economic growth has been
quite impressive in some of the phases though the dips consequent to some of the
international phenomena, such as financial crisis, and radical policy changes in the
domestic economy like demonetization, are significantly noticeable. In fact, India is
now believed to grow faster than China in the next thirty years.1 Timely corrective
actions have enabled the economy to recover fast though growing global risks
envisaged in terms of increasing oil prices and the possibility of capital outflows are
alarming.2 Among the four major drivers of growth—public expenditure, con-
sumption, private investment and net exports—at least the first three have shown
up.3 However, the growth story is not sufficient to make India shine in the world
map. A number of key indicators of development and the inclusive aspect of growth
are still lagging behind. Though some of the states, particularly in the eastern India,
have done remarkably well in terms of doing business index, the progress on human
development index in these states is yet to come.4 Even economic reforms in certain
areas have been sluggish. For example, some of the states have been slow in
implementing market reforms for agriculture to benefit.5
In the backdrop of the issues related to development in India, the National
Institute of Labour Economics Research and Development (NILERD, formerly
IAMR) organized a workshop in collaboration with ILO focusing primarily on three
important aspects: (a) growth, employment and regional inequality issues, (b) edu-
cation and skill and (c) social concerns, empowerment and health. The present
1
https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/india-gdp-to-grow-at-9-heres-why-rajiv-kumar-thinks-
it-can-become-a-reality-soon/1176918.
2
https://www.financialexpress.com/budget/india-economic-survey-2018-arvind-subramanian-says-
economic-revival-underway-4-key-takeaways/1034552/.
3
https://qz.com/1218116/bibek-debroy-thinks-indias-economy-can-surely-grow-at-7-5-in-fiscal-2019/.
4
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/need-for-india-to-do-well-on-human-
development-index-amitabh-kant/articleshow/63915354.cms.
5
https://www.smartindianagriculture.com/niti-aayogs-ramesh-chand-wants-agricultural-marketing-
in-concurrent-list/.
xi
xii Introduction
volume compiles the revised version of the papers presented in the workshop in
March 2018.
Under Part I, the chapter by Kumar, Mitra and Pandey revisits the issue of
elasticity of employment with respect to growth. Since employment data are not
available on annual basis, the existing estimates are limited in nature. In order to
generate time series data on employment, the chapter uses the cross-sectional data
on organized sector employment provided by DGET (Ministry of Labour and
Employment). After deducting the organized sector employment from the total
employment calculated for the years for which NSS employment–unemployment
surveys are available, the residual is designated as the unorganized sector
employment. In the next step, the cross-sectional elasticity of unorganized sector
employment with respect to various components of the organized sector employ-
ment is estimated. Based on these estimates and given the time series information
on organized sector employment, the total unorganized sector employment is pre-
dicted for the in-between years for which the NSS figures are not available. The
growth–employment relationship is then visited in both the time series framework
and a simultaneous equation framework. With regard to the former, the impulse
response function and variance decomposition exercises allow us to assess the
sensitivity of employment in relation to growth shocks and vice versa. Findings
tend to suggest that growth does not impact largely on employment at least in
comparison with the effect of employment on growth. However, in the simulta-
neous equation model after correcting for endogeneity, the employment elasticity of
growth turns out to be much higher than what is usually observed. Finally, the
policy implications of the results are drawn.
The chapter by Kumar, Pandey Wordsworth and Chauhan looks at the regional
aspects of growth, particularly in relation to the MSME sector which is indeed
considered to be the key to industrial growth and employment generation across
space. Historically, capital investment and employment generation were found to be
positively correlated. This tendency was found in first, second and third censuses
while making a comparative assessment of states in India. This meant that the states
with more capital investment had more employment and those with less investment
had less employment. However, in the fourth census, there was a deviation from the
above trend as the states had differential patterns of growth and concentration of
employment and investment per enterprise. There were states with more capital
investment share but less employment share and vice versa. Variables such as
employment intensity per unit, labour productivity, capital intensity measured as the
ratio of capital share to working unit share, and capital–labour ratio are considered
to understand the overall convergence/divergence across the states. Determinants of
convergence/divergence are also looked into, and finally, policy recommendations
are drawn in the light of the findings.
The chapter by Yadav, Singh and Joseph looks at the structural transformation in
terms of both value-added composition and occupational structure and reflects on
productivity differentials across sectors in various Indian states. How the population
shift (rural–urban) is linked to the structural transformation, educational attainment
and labour reforms is an important aspect of this study. It is observed from the
Introduction xiii
analysis that the growth rates have been widely fluctuating on yearly basis. Further,
the growth rates have been negative for four years which could be attributed to the
three wars India fought with China and Pakistan and another being the draught year.
This has been true for the plan-wise growth rates as well. As far as the shares of
GDP are concerned, it is changing faster from agriculture to industry and also to the
services sector. This is also quite similar in the case of the states as has been
observed. Though the share of employment is changing in a similar manner, it is
relatively at a slower pace. Indeed, it is because of this reason that the productivity
relatives are keeping low in the agriculture and higher in the industry as well as the
services sector. It is in fact the highest for the services sector. The correlation matrix
shows that agriculture is negatively related to most of the variables, while the other
two sectors are positively associated with them. As far as the story of urbanization
is concerned, it seems to have been faster in those states where industrialization and
literacy rates are higher. The chapter has also made an effort to relate the sectoral
shift with that of labour reforms. It has been found that where the labour reforms
have been accepted, the sectoral shifts are also higher. If we go further, we may also
say that in those states where urbanization is higher, the shifts in state domestic
product are also higher and these states also followed the labour reforms. But the
argument may be taken with some caution because there are some states where
there is no labour reform but the shift in state domestic product as well as the shifts
in population structure is higher. Looking at the results, one may suggest that the
urbanization should be encouraged so as to achieve higher levels of development.
Secondly, the labour reforms have also been found beneficial in states where it has
been followed resulting in faster sectoral shifts.
The chapter by Parida and Pradhan examines the implications of structural
changes in the Indian economy on the welfare of the households in both rural and
urban India. While per capita household expenditure is taken as a proxy variable to
measure the welfare of the households, the structural changes have been captured
through the changes in some of the socio-economic and demographic variables.
NSSO data of 61st round (2004–2005) and 68th round (2011–2012) are used for the
analysis. The study applies OLS technique to find out the key determinants of
household consumption expenditure and the Blinder–Oaxaca (B-O) decomposition
method to understand the urban–rural gap. The authors noted that education, wages,
occupation, household size, gender and age are important determinants of house-
hold consumption expenditure in both rural and urban India. However, the impact
of these factors is found to be relatively higher in urban areas than the rural areas.
The B-O test suggests the evidence of an increase in the urban–rural gap between
the two data points. But, the endowment effect which explains nearly 60% of the
urban–rural difference has declined southwards, suggesting the possibility of con-
vergence of consumption expenditure between the urban and rural areas.
Part II covering skill and education comprises five chapters. It begins with the
examination of skill development efforts in higher education to fulfil the objective
of “Make in India” programme and reflects on the challenges with respect to skill
development in India. Joshi and Bhattacharya argue that the technical education
system in the country has grown into a fairly large-sized one, offering opportunities
xiv Introduction
for technical education in a wide range of disciplines keeping in view the emerging
need of the economy. India has the second highest population of the working age
(15–59) in the world, but it is very crucial to examine further what proportion of
this population should be skilled. Before the planning period, there were only about
50 technical institutions, whereas today the number is more than 10,000 in the
country. Because of the high growth in the number of technical institutions, the
availability of a required number of skilled manpower has contributed speed to the
engines of economic growth. In the present chapter, an effort has been made to
review the current status of the technical/skill education in the country. Finally, it
reflects on the signals in the labour market keeping in view the concept of Make in
India initiative of the government.
The chapter by Prasad, Joshi, Indrakumar, Saxena and Sarangi reflects on skill
crisis in the organized sector in the western region of India. It covers the following
stakeholders: on-roll trainees at establishments, ex-trainees who were employed in
different establishments based on the training under NATS, establishments pro-
viding skill training under NATS, control groups of all stakeholders, professional
institutions and finally policymakers. The Scope of The Apprentices Act, 1961, was
broad-based in 1973 to accommodate fresh degree and diploma holders from
engineering institutes in industrial establishments in order to gain practical expe-
rience and to fill the gap of skill requirement in the labour market. Popularly known
as National Apprenticeship Training Scheme (NATS), it is intended to provide last
mile skill development with exposure to changing technologies and new processes
at the enterprise level. Ministry of HRD, Government of India, through four
autonomous bodies is implementing the scheme by providing incentives to youth to
encourage them to achieve skill enhancement. This study tries to find out the
effectiveness and impact of the scheme on the western region, which is industrially
developed and is supposed to provide intended support in skill development of
youth.
The chapter by Joshi, Indrakumar and Kumra carries out an impact assessment
of innovations and technology sharing on the farming community. In order to
assess, refine and demonstrate the agricultural technologies in micro-farming situ-
ations of the farmers under various production systems operated under different
agro-ecologies in the country, ICAR has created a network of 647 Krishi Vigyan
Kendras (KVKs) in all the rural districts of the country. These KVKs are the real
carriers of frontline technologies and impart knowledge and critical input support
for the farmers and play a crucial role in the transfer of technology from the
laboratory to land. India is a large agricultural country with around 50% of its
population depending on agriculture and allied sector which contributes only 17%
of GDP. Technological change has been the major driving force for the increase in
agricultural productivity and promoting agriculture development. Agricultural
innovations and diffusion of new technologies are important factors for all devel-
oping countries including India in their quest for food and nutritional security and
improving the quality of life of people engaged in agriculture and related activities.
Introduction xv
SHGs and the impact of the interventions taken up under DAY-NRLM on the
coverage of the target households, the revival of defunct SHGs and the
socio-economic changes in the lives of the SHG members. Based on fieldwork in
Telangana, this article analyses the functioning of SHG institutions, including the
problems faced by them and some of the ways in which these problems have been
tackled by members of and other stakeholders in these institutions. There has been
regular saving and borrowing from internal funds and banks. Though SHGs are
stable, they lack vibrancy in their functioning. The analysis leads to a better
understanding of the factors contributing towards stability, quality and sustain-
ability of the groups and helps design appropriate policies.
The chapter by Sinha elaborates on the digital revolution which is transforming
the labour market significantly, particularly in relation to the opportunities for
women. Digital technology and globalization have brought in a sea change in the
landscape of work with increasing access to work, information, newer production
hubs, etc. In India, there had been significant strides in digital intervention through
Digital India initiative, Aadhaar (unique identity number), JAM, ICT initiatives to
enhance women’s economic autonomy, newer production structure, digital trans-
actions, etc. In the labour market in India, however, most of the workers are
informal workers. Women are either self-employed (mostly unpaid family workers)
or casual workers, working mostly at the lower rung of the occupational ladder as
agricultural labourers, petty traders, manufacturing outworkers, etc. In this context,
the chapter explores whether women can leverage the opportunities, be it trade or
manufacturing or financial services, created by digital transformation. The study
argues that differences in access along with factors like inequality in education and
professional training, access to finance, asset holding lead to gender digital divide,
restricting the transformational effects that digital technologies are creating. Women
are typically employed at the last end of the value chains or occupational chain and
bereft of any social security and in a survivalist state, rather than growing. The
chapter suggests a set of policies so that women in India are a part of and benefit
from the digital dividends.
The health issues, particularly the reproductive health services, need a thorough
investigation as maternal mortality, illnesses and inadequacy of the support system
are on the forefront. The chapter by Dhar, Kakkar and Roy evaluates the sanitation
programmes with special reference to health and growth. It covers all the sanitation
programmes launched by the Government of India and presents a comparison of
different schemes in terms of their mandate, sanctioned and utilized budgets and
targets achieved. The lack of access to improved sanitation and the associated
health risks is a major issue in developing countries including India. Many national
and international efforts have been made over the past few decades to improve the
situation. However, the net outcome is reported to be not proportionate to the efforts
made and money spent. A world mapping on access to clean water and sanitation
around the world shows that a large number of India’s population practise open
defecation despite decades of government programmes. India has a far higher open
defecation rate when compared with countries with higher poverty and lower lit-
eracy. In practice, government programmes paid little attention in understanding
xviii Introduction
why so many rural Indians defecate in the open rather than use affordable pit
latrines. Government programmes are focused on subsidizing the building of toilets,
but research shows that the toilets that are built lie unused. An understanding of
beliefs and values held by people is essential in ensuring acceptance and usage by
people as is shown by states that have been able to achieve ODF status, rather than
focus on subsidy alone. The non-timely release of allocated money has also been a
major hindrance to the achievement of targets by many states. The chapter also
finds a relationship between sanitation and various socio-economic indicators
which directly impacts the overall growth and productivity of a country.
The other chapter by Sharma carries out a thorough analysis of family planning
and reproductive health services. In this study, the reasons for non-use of family
planning (FP) and reproductive health (RH) services in Kanpur slums, non-slums
and rural areas are analysed. The study uses USAID-ITAP Kanpur Nagar
Reproductive and Child Health Status in slum, non-slum and rural areas data of
2006. Percentage distribution and multinomial logistic regression analysis tech-
nique are used to study the reasons of non-use of family planning and reproductive
health services in the Kanpur Nagar District of Uttar Pradesh. Across the residence
category, the private sector health facility was used by the inmates for seeking FP
and RH care services. For non-use of government health facility, poor quality care
(56%), no nearby government facility (50%) and waiting time being too long (28%)
were the most cited reasons by males, females and children. Mean distance to
government health facility for delivery care is higher than the private facility. About
26% of the women wanted to have more children, the reason being they never used
contraception. Urban women those never used contraception for the want of more
children range from 26% in non-slum to 27% in slums, while in rural areas, this was
26%. The health-related problem was the most cited reason (40%) for women
discontinuing IUCD/Copper-T. The reason for not consuming the 100+ days of IFA
tablets/syrup that was received is that they either felt sick (39%) after consuming
the medicine or felt (15%) that they did not need all the tablets. The main reason
why mothers of children aged 0–35 months stopped breastfeeding is that they got
pregnant (29%) with higher percentages saying so in rural areas (40%) compared to
urban areas (23%). Twenty-five percentage of the women said they got insufficient
breast milk, while another 10% told that the child refused the breast milk, with
marked rural–urban variations. The government targeted conditional cash transfer
schemes relating to health care such as Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), and benefits
under Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK) may be remodelled such that it
builds better compliance on part of the beneficiaries.
All these studies reflect on various aspects of development in India and bring out
the underlying policy implications. In the context of the development discourse, the
volume may serve a better understanding as it focuses on a number of not-so-widely
covered research issues.
Arup Mitra
Part 1
Revisiting Growth–Employment
Relationship in India
1 Introduction
One of the ways of conceptualizing inclusive growth is to lay emphasis on the creation
of productive jobs in the process of economic growth, particularly keeping in view the
vast supplies of unskilled and semi-skilled variety of labour. In the face of rising
inequality, growth alone is not sufficient to benefit all the sections of the society,
especially those located at the lower echelons. While from supply side, the quality of
labour has to improve in order to keep pace with the requirements of the changing
technology and labour demand has to rise for bridging the gap between supply and
demand. In a broad sense, the elasticity of employment with respect to growth is a
summary index of the employment generating capacity of economic growth.
In the Indian context, several studies have tried to estimate the employment
elasticity of growth keeping in view the mismatches in the changes in value-added
composition and the work force structure (Mundle 1993; Bhattacharya and Mitra
1993). However, due to the lack of time series data on total employment, only point
to point average elasticity could be computed at the aggregate level. For the
organized manufacturing, however, more profound econometric exercises could be
pursued as employment figures are available at a fairly comparable form over time.
Most of the macromodels in India also exclude aggregate employment variable
precisely because the annual time series data are not available. In this sense, the
macroanalysis is incomplete since from the point of view of inclusive and poverty
reduction, employment is an important consideration.
Our contention in this paper is that the organized sector employment on which
time series data are available can play a major role in generating figures on unor-
ganized sector employment and total employment. Second, once the total
employment figures are generated over time, the growth–employment relationship
is studied rigorously which is attempted in two different ways. First, in the time
series framework, the impulse response of employment to growth shocks and the
impulse response of growth to employment shocks are discerned. Second, a small
macromodel is developed to reflect on the employment elasticity of growth. The
single equation model used widely to estimate the elasticity coefficients is not
sufficient as different macro-variables are interdependent. The rest of the paper is
organized as follows. The next section reviews some of the studies on employment
elasticity of growth. In Sect. 3, we estimate the cross-sectional elasticity of informal
to formal sector employment and using these estimates, the informal sector
employment is predicted annually over time given the magnitude of the organized/
formal sector employment. In Sect. 4, the growth–employment relationship is
pursued in the time series framework. Section 5 presents results on growth–em-
ployment relationship considering a production function and an employment
function at the aggregate level and suggesting simultaneity between growth and
employment. Finally, Sect. 6 summarizes the findings with policy implications.
We get to see two groups of studies in the Indian context on employment aspect in
relation to economic growth. One of them considered both at the sectoral level and
the aggregate level the proportion of employment growth rate to value added
growth rate to reflect on employment generating capacity of economic growth.
Different sectors unfold varied experiences. The agriculture sector to begin with had
the highest employment elasticity though it has been declining over time as the
employment growth in this sector is declining. Mechanization has added to
value-added growth mostly coming from improvements in yield. On the other hand,
disguised unemployment already existed in agriculture to a large extent with limited
scope for further expansion in employment prospect. The lack of rural diversifi-
cation did not allow the rural employment growth to pick up significantly
(Bhattacharya and Mitra 1993).
Though in the services sector, employment elasticity has been higher than
manufacturing, one would have expected it to be much greater in magnitude.
Possibly because of the lack of skill, employment growth in the high productivity
services did not pick up as expected. Other than skill intensity rising capital
Revisiting Growth–Employment … 5
intensity also seems to have reduced the pace of labour absorption. The residual
component within the services sector is overcrowded and characterized by low
levels of productivity and meagre earnings. The excess-supplies-limited-demand
paradigm applies to this segment of the sector, unfolding the shift of unskilled
labour from agriculture seasonally and permanently both.
The second group of studies on employment elasticity is based on econometric
estimation. Corresponding to the organized manufacturing sector availability of annual
time series data facilitated such technical exercises. Usually, value added, wage rate,
and man-days per hour are included in the equation (Mitra 2013). In the double-log
specification, the coefficients are the elasticity estimates. Pooling of time series data
across various industry groups is also pursued in order to enlarge the dataset. The usual
criticism of such estimation is that the equation does not consider the impact of tech-
nology on employment directly which can be tackled by incorporating the
capital-output ratio. In the labour demand, function which is derived from the output
function value added involves endogeneity which in fact must be overcome though the
existing literature has not been much responsive to this criticism. Empirically, the
employment elasticity of growth in the organized manufacturing sector has not been
impressive to designate industry as the engine of growth. With an increase in the
man-days per worker, the scope for additional employment to be created in the process
of growth can be negligible. Particularly in the face of increasing contractualization,
labour utilization tending to trespass the limits of exploitation, employment growth is
seen to be sluggish. Besides, the import of technology which is highly intensive in terms
of capital and skill reduces the pace of labour absorption. While innovation is under-
taken on a limited scale, it is also said to be highly capital and skill intensive, resulting in
sluggish employment growth. However, distinction has to be made between process
and product innovation. While certain phases in the production process may turn
increasingly capital intensive, certain others are labour intensive, which at the aggregate
may actually add to the total work force engaged by the unit (Vivarelli 2013). Besides,
the scope to process byproducts without proportionate increase in capital results in
employment expansion and thus, the elasticity of employment with respect to inno-
vation is seen to be positive in a number of industries (Mitra 2015).
For the unorganized manufacturing, the lack of time series data again does not
allow econometric estimation. However, cross-industry estimation is a popular
method. Pooling of time series data across regions and industry groups allows a
number of data points to be included and a more reliable estimate is obtained.
However, for the own account manufacturing enterprises (OAMEs), earning
information is not available while these enterprises account for a large majority of
the employment in the unorganized manufacturing units. But the availability of the
unit level data allows many data points to be used from the non-directory manu-
facturing enterprises and directory manufacturing enterprises even when the
OAMEs are dropped. Another view very much in currency suggests that business
subcontracting from the organized to the unorganized sector has been encouraging
employment growth, reducing labour turn over cost and raising productivity and
wages. However, empirical results refute most of these assertions (Mitra and
Pandey 2013): ancillarization and subcontracting did not unravel any sizeable
6 Y. Kumar et al.
1
The organized sector includes all units in the public sector and non-agricultural establishments in
the private sector employing at least 10 employees.
Revisiting Growth–Employment … 7
Manufacturing and other services are the two activities which show positive and
significant coefficients for both the years. It is important to note that the elasticity
with respect to organized manufacturing almost halved as we move from the first
cross section to the second cross section. For the category of other services, the
elasticity still appears to be unity from the second cross section.
The employment figures from 1975 to 1998 are taken from an earlier study done
by one of the authors, using the same methodology (Chakravarty and Mitra 2009).
For the year 1999 through 2004, the equation for 1999–2000 has been used and for
the rest of the years, 2005 through 2012, the equation for 2004–05 has been used.
The employment estimates are provided in Table 2.
4 Growth–Employment Relationship:
Time Series Analysis
co-integrating relationship between the variables (Table 4) and hence, vector error
correction model has been estimated (Table 5).
The impulse response of employment to GDP shock is very nominal to begin
with (0.004 at the end of one year period) though over time it declines to 0.001 by
the fifth year (Table 6). However, subsequently, it rises marginally and remains at
around 0.002 from the seventh year onward. On the other hand, the response of
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Ákos a nyitva hagyott külső ajtóhoz sietett, s midőn a gyertyával
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Erzsébet s Vilma, kik a mellékszobából utána jöttek,
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A házból s szomszédlakból a lövésre emberek fut nak össze. A
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XV.