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Sovrenn Times 15 Mar 2024

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Author: Sovrenn Financial Technologies Pvt. Ltd.

15th Mar 2024

Aditya Joshi, Co-founder and CEO


Akriti Swaroop, Co-founder and COO

SOVRENN TIMES

DISCLAIMER: This document is created for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT
be construed as a Buy/Sell recommendation, investment advice or a research report. Although the
document accurately reflects the personal views of the authors, there may be manual/ human errors in the
document. The authors may also have equity shares in the companies mentioned in this report. Investor is
advised to consult his/her investment advisor and undertake further due diligence before making any
investment decision in the companies mentioned. Authors are not liable for any financial gains or losses due
to investments made as per the information written in this document.
15th Mar 2024
IMPORTANT: How to use Sovrenn Times

To begin your investment journey with Sovrenn, please watch the below education modules:

MODULE I:
English: https://sovrenn.com/education/videos?module=1&lang=english&avail=true
Hindi: https://sovrenn.com/education/videos?module=1&lang=hindi&avail=true

MODULE II:
English: https://sovrenn.com/education/videos?module=2&lang=english&avail=true
Hindi: https://sovrenn.com/education/videos?module=2&lang=hindi&avail=true

SOVRENN FRAMEWORK

Please look at the following parameters to assess any company for investment:

(1) Company type: Evergreen or Seasonal sector is preferable over Cyclical. This is because it is difficult
to predict upswing in Cyclical stocks.

(2) Profit uptrend: The revenue, operating profit and net profit should ideally be following an increasing
trajectory and company must not be loss making.

(3) PE: TTM PE or Trailing 12m Price to Earnings ratio should ideally be on the lower side of the sector
PE range, unless the growth prospects are compelling to justify a higher PE.

(4) Futuristic Sector: A futuristic sector (eg: Solar, Wind EV, Railways, Defence, 5G, Electrification, New
Age IT, etc.) enjoys sector tailwinds and usually has higher growth potential.

(5) HNI / Institutional / Promoter Buying: If a known HNI enters the Company by picking equity stake in
it, it can add to one’s conviction building. Similarly, promoters buying their company’s shares is
generally a positive signal of them demonstrating confidence in their business.

(6) Special Situation: If a company is raising funds through preferential issuance of shares to a select
group of investors, or through Rights issuance where all the current shareholders have the right to
buy additional shares in the company, it signals incoming cash into the company. This cash is
generally used for future growth and hence signals increased possibility of higher future profits.

(7) Future Information: If we have information about future growth drivers of a company, it can help build
conviction before making investment decisions. Examples of such events include: (a) capacity
expansion which indicates future increase in sales, (b) new product launches, (c) large orders, (d)
partnerships and agreements, (e) acquisitions, etc.

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 2


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
1. CEINSYS TECH LIMITED BSE: 538734 (1st time covered: 2nd Jun 2023)
Recent filing: (ORDER) Ceinsys Tech has received work order worth INR 12 Cr from Maharashtra Industrial
Development Corporation (MIDC, a Government of Maharashtra Undertaking), for Providing & fixing AMR
Domestic & Non-Domestic wireless Water Meter including installation, maintenance Integration with MIDC
Billing Software, Bill payment App, Field staff Employee App including cloud based multi-protocol HES &
MDMS with Alerts, to be executed over 24 months.

SUMMARY: 3y Operating Profit uptrend | PE 19.8x (Sector PE range 30-50) | Excellent Dec-23 results | New-
Age IT

• MCap of INR 886 Crore (share price = INR 542 / share) (as on 15th Mar ‘24)
• TTM PE of 19.8x (as on 15th Mar ‘24) Retail float = 24.5% (Dec-23)

Company Description: Established in 1998, Ceinsys Tech Limited is leveraging smart technology and
analytics to deliver new age solutions in the geospatial and engineering domains. The service offerings of
the company include Geospatial Service s, Risk Analytics, Engineering Support, Digital Enterprise,
Consulting Service and Software Solutions to various industries like Water, Oil & Gas, Energy, Telecom,
Transport etc.

Share price and Volume (last 1 year):

Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Ceinsy 127 156 148 210 196 221 216 367 363 354 449 592

(In INR Cr) Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Sales 57.0 41.0 53.4 52.1 73.0 53.8 58.3 63
Op Profit 5.7 6.3 1.4 2.2 21.8 11.4 9.8 11
Net Profit 3.7 5.4 1.5 2.7 21.2 8.4 4.7 10.4
OPM 10% 15% 3% 4% 30% 21% 17% 17%
NPM 6% 13% 3% 5% 29% 16% 8% 16%
Promoter % 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 75.0%

(In INR Cr) Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM
Sales 141 176 197 185 203 220 248
Op Profit 21 24 50 18 24 33 54
Net Profit 5 3 22 2 10 31 45
Website: https://www.ceinsys.com/
This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 3
Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Company Type Evergreen
LT OP uptrend Yes
ST OP uptrend No
PE 19.8 (IT: 30-50)
Below sector range

Yes
Futuristic Sector
(New Age-IT)
Smart City Solutions
HNI / Institutional
/ Promoter No
Buying
Special Situation No

Feb ’24: Company has received Letter of Intent worth INR 60 Cr for
Implementation of Digital Project Management System for Progress
Monitoring of various Schemes for Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran,
Maharashtra under Jal Jeevan Mission, to be executed over 30 months.

Feb ‘24: Company has received Service Order worth INR 5.3 Cr from
Fugro USA Land Inc for Extraction of all assets for 15581 miles of New
Mexico 2023/2024 Lidar project. This project needs to be executed over
the next 6 months.

Nov ‘23: Company has secured Purchase Order from MAHAGENCO,


Maharashtra State Power Generation Company Limited for
Implementation of Flow Monitoring System at Khaperkheda TPS
amounting to INR 9.1 Cr, to be implemented over 1 year.

Nov ‘23: Company has been awarded an extension letter up to June 15,
Future Visibility Yes 2024, for one of the major projects from State Water and Sanitation
Mission, Uttar Pradesh for Selection and Appointment of Consultant for
Third Party Inspection and Monitoring of Physical and Financial
Progress for various Rural Water Supply Projects for 3 clusters:
Lucknow, Chitrakoot Dham and Devi Patan. This is an extension to the
existing orders, the Company had received in FY22 and the size of the
orders shall depend on contractor’s actual execution value during
project duration.

Oct ‘23: Company has secured work allocation order worth INR 248 Cr
from State Water and Sanitation Mission, Water Supply and Sanitation
Department, Government of Maharashtra for Appointment of System
Integrators for IoT Deployment including Design, Implementation &
Maintenance with Centralized IoT Platform for Jal Jeevan Mission
Projects in State of Maharashtra, to be implemented over 2 years with 5
years of Operations & Maintenance.

LT OP = Long-term operating profit; ST OP = Short-term operating profit

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 4


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
2. SOM DISTILLERIES & BREWERIES LIMITED NSE: SDBL
(1st time covered: 9th Feb 2023)

Recent filing: (PROMOTER BUYING) Promoter Jagdish Kumar Arora of Som Distilleries & Breweries
bought 40k shares at INR 243 each, aggregating to INR 97L in March 2024, between 6th and 13th March.

SUMMARY: 3y Operating Profit uptrend | PE 22.8x (Sector PE range 30-70) | Excellent Dec-23 results |
Promoter buying | Fund raise | Capacity expansion | Geographical expansion | Consumption

• MCap of INR 1,875 Crore (share price = INR 242 / share) (as on 15th Mar ‘24)
• TTM PE 22.8x (as on 15th Mar ‘24) Retail float = 25.3% (Dec-23)

Company Description: Som Group has its portfolio of brands across the spectrum of Spirits, Beer, Alcopop.
SOM’s flagship brand Hunter is a forerunner in the strong beer category.

Share price and Volume (last 1 year):

Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-23
SDBL 154 168 233 262 334 315 353 314 291 288 277 273

(In INR Cr) Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Sales 146 254 147 151 253 385 248 266
Op Profit 12 34 17 19 28 49 27 32
Net Profit 6 26 8 11 16 34 15 18
OPM 8% 13% 12% 13% 11% 13% 11% 12%
NPM 4% 10% 5% 7% 6% 9% 6% 7%
Promoter % 29.3% 30.1% 30.4% 32.7% 33.1% 34.5% 34.5% 34.7%

(In INR Cr) Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM
Sales 351 393 460 288 363 807 1,152
Op Profit 59 49 44 -10 17 102 136
Net Profit 25 20 15 -38 -10 61 82
Website: https://www.somindia.com/

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 5


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Company Type Seasonal
LT OP uptrend Yes
ST OP uptrend Yes
PE 22.8
(Alcoholic Beverages: 30-70)
Below sector range
Hunter
Futuristic Sector No
Above +

Promoter Buying:
Feb ‘24: Promoter bought 50k shares at INR 259 each, aggregating
to INR 1.3 Cr.
Dec ‘23: Promoter Jagdish Kumar Arora bought 62k shares at an
average price of INR 287/share, aggregating to INR 1.8 Cr. Promoter
HNI / Institutional Ajay Kumar Arora sold 46.5k shares at an average price of INR
/ Promoter Yes 295/share, aggregating to INR 1.4 Cr.
Buying Nov ‘23: INR 62.5L, at an average price of INR 297/share
Oct ‘23: INR 5.1 Cr, at an average price of INR 328/share
Sep ‘23: INR 1.7 Cr, at an average price of INR 325/share
Aug ‘23: INR 1.3 Cr, at an average price of INR 319/share
Jun ‘23: INR 2.5 Cr, at an average price of INR 254/share
May ‘23: INR 98L, at an average price of INR 194/share
Sep ‘22 to Mar ‘23: INR 10 Cr worth of shares
Nov ‘22: Caprize Inv. bought INR 7.6 Cr at INR 126/share

Jan ‘24: BoD approved the raising of funds worth INR 350 Cr.

Aug ‘23: BoD considered and approved the allotment of: (i) 2.5L
shares at INR 275/share, on preferential basis to Ampersand Growth
Opportunities Fund Scheme I upon receipt of INR 6.9 Cr, and (ii)
51.5L warrants at INR 275 per warrant, on preferential basis to
Promoters (48.5L warrants) and Non-Promoters (Icy Blast Retails
and Lakeside Retail) upon receipt of INR 35.4 Cr (25% of the issue
price).
Special Situation Yes
Jul ‘23: BoD approved raising of funds through Issue of Convertible
Warrants to the Promoters Public Investors on Preferential Basis by
issuing up to 51.5L Warrants at INR 275/warrant, aggregating to INR
140 Cr. BoD also approved raising of funds through issue of Equity
Shares to certain identified Non-Promoters on Preferential Basis by
issuing up to 2.5L shares at INR 275/share, aggregating to INR 7 Cr.

Apr ‘23: BoD approved rights issuance of 35L equity shares worth
INR 49 Crores, at INR 140/share.

Feb ‘24: Fund infusion in Woodpecker Distilleries and Breweries


Private Limited (or Woodpecker) done by SDBL (INR 10 Cr) and
Future Visibility Yes Promoters (INR 30 Cr). INR 40 Cr will be used for: (i) part financing
Woodpecker’s capex plans and also facilitate the return of unsecured
loans to the parent company, SDBL. Prior to this infusion,
Woodpecker was SDBL’s wholly-owned-subsidiary and contributed

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 6


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
INR 262 Cr as turnover i.e. 32.5% of the total consolidated turnover
of the Company SDBL during last year. Post infusion, SDBL will hold
79% in the subsidiary Woodpecker while remaining 21% will be
owned by the Promoters.

Feb ‘24: Company announced an impressive 51% year-to-date


volume growth in Karnataka this financial year.

Dec ‘23: Expansion of Hassan Plant is expected to completed by


March / April 2024.

Dec ‘23: Company has received official approval from the Karnataka
Excise Department for the supply of its premium beer brands:
Hunter, Blackfort, and Woodpecker to Tamil Nadu.
Nov ‘23: Company announced that it had a substantial and leading
market share of 45% in the overall beer industry in the state of
Madhya Pradesh for the month of Oct ‘23.
Nov ‘23: Income Tax department has raided multiple premises of
the Company, in election-bound Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh. It has also raided the house of Som Group owner
Jagdish Arora.
Oct ‘23: Company has introduced a new strong beer “Legend” in the
state of Karnataka. This is a strategic move aimed at consolidating
Company’s market share in Karnataka and establishing Legend as
the go-to choose for strong beer enthusiasts.
Oct ’23: Company announced a strategic contract manufacturing
agreement in Jammu and Kashmir for the manufacture of IMFL for
delivering products to the Canteen Stores Department. This will also
lead to a shorter turnaround time for the supply of products to the
northern and border regions of the country.
Oct ’23: Company announced a strategic contract manufacturing
arrangement for its brands in Punjab aimed at bolstering supply
capabilities to the Canteen Stores Department (CSD) for the
Northern region of the country.

Aug ‘23: Company’s beer brands have received permissions for


supply to the state of Chhattisgarh. It has also started the initial
dispatches to the state. Company is confident to building a
meaningful market presence in Chhattisgarh in the medium term.

Aug ‘23: Company has placed the orders for expansion of the beer
facility at is Hasan Plant. Orders have been placed with suppliers
based out of Germany and India. Expansion will add another 60L
cases per annum from the plant. For perspective, Beer sales volume
for the Company in 1QFY24 was 65.8L cases.

Aug ‘23: Company’s IMFL brands have received permissions for


supply to the state of Rajasthan. Company had earlier received
permissions for supply of its beer brands to the state.

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 7


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Aug ‘23: Company will pay off INR 30 Cr of its total INR 72 Cr of
Unsecured Loans for Working Capital, availed by the Company
during Covid using proceeds from the Preferential Issue.

Jul ‘23: For the month of Jun-23, Company has increased its market
share in Madhya Pradesh to 46% from 42% in May-23.

Jul ‘23: Company’s beer brands have received permissions for


supply to the state of Rajasthan. Rajasthan is one of the top 5 states
in the country in terms of consumption.

Jun ‘23: As of middle of June 2023, Company has captured a market


share of 18.4% in Orissa, making it the 2nd largest player in terms of
market share in the state. Market share in May 2023 was 14.7%.

Jun ‘23: Carlsberg India has started production in Company’s plant


in Odisha, marking a significant milestone in Som’s Expansion Plan.

Jun ‘23: Market share in Karnataka witnessed phenomenal growth,


reaching a historic 20.1% in May ‘23. Previously, the Company’s
share in the state in FY22 was 6.9%, and it had reached 13.9% in
FY23.

Jun ‘23: Company’s flagship strong beer, Hunter, achieved a


remarkable feat by emerging as the number one selling brand of
strong beer in the state of Delhi for the month of May 2023.

Jun ‘23: Company has an overwhelming growth in the beer industry


of Madhya Pradesh, with a market share of 42% in the month of May
’23.
May ‘23: Strategic tie-up with Carlsberg Pvt Ltd. Under this tie-up,
Som’s state-of-the-art plant in Odisha will be partly utilized to
produce a wide range of world-class beverages, including popular
brands from Carlsberg India’s portfolio. This tie-up will also lead to
better capacity utilisation of the expanded capacity of the Odisha
plant which is expected to be completed by June 2023.

Expanded brewing capacity at Hassan, Karnataka and expanded


canning line at Bhopal have started commercial production.

LT OP = Long-term operating profit; ST OP = Short-term operating profit

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 8


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
3. POWER MECH PROJECTS LIMITED NSE: POWERMECH
(1st time covered: 7th Feb 2023)

Recent filing: (ORDER) Power Mech Projects has received an order worth INR 306 Cr for the construction
of electrified 4th Railway BG Line in between Rajnandgaon Dongargarha and Bhilai- Ourg link block station,
in the state of Chhattisgarh in South East Central Railway on EPC basis. This project has to be executed
over 30 months.

SUMMARY: 3y Operating Profit uptrend | 2q Operating Profit uptrend | PE 30.8x (Sector PE range 30-50) |
Excellent Dec-23 results | Fund raise | Orderbook INR 57,328 Cr (Nov ‘23), 14x of TTM Sales | Electrification

• MCap of INR 7,358 Crore (share price = INR 4,655 / share) (as on 15th Mar ‘24)
• TTM PE 30.8x (as on 15th Mar ‘24) Retail float = 10.5% (Dec-23)

Company Description: Established in 1999, Power Mech Project is one of the leading infrastructure-
construction companies based in Hyderabad with global presence, providing spectrum of services in power
and infrastructure sectors. Strategic foray into Railways, Water Projects, Roads, Coal Mining, Cross Country
Pipelines, Material Handling & Manufacturing leading to widening focus from Power to Non-Power sectors.

Share price and Volume (last 1 year):

Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Power 2,470 2,617 3,056 3,366 4,615 4,226 4,198 3,607 4,165 4,286 5,330 5,116

(In INR Cr) Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Sales 902 747 771 909 1,174 865 932 1,108
Op Profit 94 81 86 101 127 99 111 133
Net Profit 47 39 43 51 75 51 51 62
OPM 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12%
NPM 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Promoter % 63.7% 63.7% 63.7% 64.2% 64.1% 64.1% 64.1% 60.4%

(In INR Cr) Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM
Sales 1,548 2,261 2,165 1,884 2,710 3,601 4,079
Op Profit 202 291 271 39 287 395 469
Net Profit 91 143 131 -49 138 207 239
Website: https://www.powermechprojects.com/
This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 9
Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Company Type Evergreen
LT OP uptrend Yes
ST OP uptrend Yes
PE 30.8 (Power infra: 30-50)
Lower end of sector range
Yes Manufacturing facility – Hydro Power and Water
Futuristic Sector
(Electrification)
Dec ‘23: Edelweiss Trusteeship Co Ltd bought 1.17% stake.
HNI / Institutional
Mar ‘23: Promoters immediate relative bought 16.7k shares at INR
/ Promoter Yes 2,387/share, aggregating to INR 4 Cr.
Buying
Since Jun ‘23, person belonging to Promoter Group and Designated
person sold shares worth INR 10.4 Cr.

Special Situation Yes Oct ‘23: BoD approved the allocation of 9L equity shares at INR
3,881/share, aggregating to INR 350 Cr.

Mar ’24: Company has approved the incorporation of a Wholly Owned


Subsidiary under the name PMTS Private Limited. The object of
incorporation is to design and develop technologies, which are
required for construction companies and companies in other
sectors/industries including implementation of ERP & monitoring
systems.

Mar ’24: Company has received an order worth INR 659 Cr to be


executed over 60 months for (i) Construction of Upper Burhner
Project Dam and Pressurized pipe irrigation network from Madhya
Pradesh Water resources department, Govt. of Madhya Pradesh for
INR 542 Cr. (ii) Boiler and ESP Package for Overhaul including
spares of 2x125 MW Akrimota Thermal Power Station of Gujarat
Mineral Development Corporation for INR 117 Cr.

Feb ’24: Company has received an order worth INR 396 Cr from
Future Visibility Yes South East Central Railway for execution of civil construction and
electrical works, to be completed over 30 months.

Jan ‘24: Company has received 2 orders worth INR 645 Cr: (i) INR
381 Cr from RVNL (Rail Vikas Nigam Limited) for the construction of
roadbeds, major-minor bridges, general electrification, and other
related work of Central Railway in Maharashtra, to be executed within
3 years, (ii) INR 264 Cr from NUPPL (Neyveli Uttar Pradesh Power
Limited) for the Comprehensive O&M Service of 3x660 MW
Ghattampur Thermal Power Project, to be executed within 3 years.

Jan ‘24: Company has received orders worth INR 825 Cr from Mahan
Energen Ltd. for Civil and Mechanical Construction Works for 2*800
MW Mahan Ultra Supercritical Thermal Power Project, to be
completed over a period of 22 to 33 months.

Dec ‘23: Received orders worth INR 2,192 Cr: (i) INR 675 Cr from
Meenakshi Energy Ltd. for Revival and O&M services at coal fired
power plant in Andhra Pradesh over 5y, (ii) INR 1,518 Cr from

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 10


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Directorate of Geology and Mining, Dehradun, Uttarakhand for Mining
of riverbed minerals.

Nov ‘23: Received INR 355 Cr worth order from BHEL for the
Erection, Testing and Commissioning of Boiler & its auxillaries, Piping
and Steam Turbine Generator, over 37 months.

Sep ‘23: Company has received 2 orders worth INR 625 Cr. One is
worth INR 229 Cr over 6 years from Hindustan Linc Ltd. for operation
and maintenance of 2x 91.2MW including control room operation of
CPP in Rajasthan. Second order is worth INR 396 Cr over 18 months
from Vedanta Ltd. for Erection, Testing and Commissioning
assistance of Boiler, Turbine, Generator for its project site for 2X600
MW Power Plant in Chhattisgarh.

Aug ‘23: Received 2 orders of total worth INR 724 Cr, both to be
executed over 3 years. One of worth INR 159 Cr is from Raichur
Power Corporation Ltd for operation and maintenance of 2x800 MW
Coal based Yeramarus Thermal Power Station in Karnataka. Second
order of worth INR 565 Cr is from Madhya Pradesh State Mining
Corporation Ltd for Sand Mining as Mine Developer Cum Operator.

Aug ‘23: Company in consortium with PC Patel Infra Pvt Ltd received
an order worth INR 30,438 Cr from Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
for Development and Operation of Tasra Opencast Project in
Jharkhand, to be executed over 28 years.

Apr ‘23: Company has received orders worth INR 720 Cr for (i)
Construction of Govt. Medical College & Hospital for Uttarakhand Pey
Jal Nigam; (ii) Distribution works under RDSS, MP and Railway
Electrification, Mysuru; (iii) Balance Erection works and
Refurbishment (Orissa); (iv) O&M for projects across clients (Pipavav,
Adani, Reliance Power, HPCL).

LT OP = Long-term operating profit; ST OP = Short-term operating profit

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 11


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
4. RAMKRISHNA FORGINGS LIMITED NSE: RKFORGE
(1st time covered: 24th Feb 2023)

Recent filing: (PROMOTER BUYING) Promoter of Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. bought 30k shares at INR
630/share, aggregating to INR 1.9 Cr on 13th Mar 2024.

SUMMARY: 4y Operating Profit uptrend | 2q Operating Profit uptrend | PE 35.5x (Sector PE range 30-50) |
Excellent Dec-23 results | Fund raise | Capacity expansion | Acquisition | Geographical expansion | Promoter
buying | Railways

• MCap of INR 11,231 Crore (share price = INR 621 / share) (as on 15th Mar ‘24)
• TTM PE 35.5x (as on 15th Mar ‘24) Retail float = 10.6% (Dec-23)

Company Description: Ramkrishna Forgings is involved in the manufacturing & sale of forged components
of automobiles, railway wagons & coaches and engineering parts. It is a supplier to various sectors like
Automotive, Railways, Farm Equipment, Bearings, Oil & Gas, Power and Construction, Earth Moving &
Mining, both in India & overseas.

Share price and Volume (last 1 year):

Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
RFL 286 326 384 445 563 713 644 640 800 726 763 782

(In INR Cr) Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Sales 719 699 824 777 892 892 981 1,058
Op Profit 147 150 175 173 194 192 206 224
Net Profit 84 51 67 61 68 79 82 87
OPM 20% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21%
NPM 12% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%
Promoter % 46.2% 46.2% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 47.4% 43.1%**
**Promoter holding as of Nov23

(In INR Cr) Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM
Sales 1,491 1,931 1,216 1,289 2,320 3,193 3,823
Op Profit 289 386 209 224 518 692 816
Net Profit 95 120 10 21 198 248 316
Website: https://www.ramkrishnaforgings.com/
This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 12
Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Company Type Evergreen
LT OP uptrend Yes
ST OP uptrend Yes
PE 35.5 (Auto parts: 30-50)
Lower end of sector range
Yes
(Railway
Futuristic Sector
Modernization)

Feb ‘24: Promoter bought 14k shares at INR 702 each, aggregating
to INR 99 L in the month of Feb 2024.

Dec ‘23: Naresh Jalan (Promoter & Director) bought 6k shares at


INR 725/share, aggregating to INR 41L.

HNI / Institutional As per Dec-23 shareholding data, Smallcap World Fund and
Nomura India Investment Fund have taken up 2.8% and 2.3%
/ Promoter Yes respectively in the Company.
Buying
Sep ‘23: Vanguard Index Funds bought 20.6L shares at INR
692/share, aggregating to INR 143 Cr.

Oct ‘22: Promoter bought INR 11L of shares at INR 234/share

Sep ‘22: Bofa Securities Europe SA bought INR 37Cr of shares


at INR 178/share.

Sep ‘23: BoD considered and approved the raising of funds up to


INR 1,000 Cr by way of issuance of equity shares through Qualified
Institutional Placement (QIP).
Special Situation Yes Sep ‘23: In Oct ‘22, BoD had allotted 46L warrants at INR 205 per
unit to promoters and non-promoters after receiving 25% of issue
price, which was INR 23.6 Cr. BoD has now approved conversion
of these warrants to shares upon receipt of INR 70.7 Cr, which is
75% of issue price.

Feb ’24: BoD approved an investment of up to INR 90 Cr for setting


up forgings manufacturing facility in Mexico to manufacture End
Yokes and Tube Yokes. This will have an installed capacity of
11,000 MT per annum and is expected to be operational by FY26.

Feb ‘24: Company announced a significant milestone as it


Future Visibility Yes penetrates further into North American market by successfully
securing a contract worth US$220 Million (~INR 1,826 Cr). This
contract spans over a decade and marks the Company's foray into
a new vertical within the forging sector, focusing on supplying Tier
1 customers in the Light Vehicle segment across North America.

Feb ’24: Company has been awarded a substantial contract valued


at $13.16 million USD (~INR 110 Cr) from Prominent North

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15th Mar 2024
American Axle manufacturer for Rear Axle & Off-Highway
Business over next 4 years.

Jan ‘24: Company announces Strategic Partnership with McKinsey


for a comprehensive Transformation Program. Under this
consultancy agreement, McKinsey will spearhead a
comprehensive 15-month transformation program that spans
across crucial facets of the Company's operations. The focus areas
include Manufacturing, Logistics, Procurement, Manpower,
Inventory, Pricing, and more. The strategic collaboration aims to
streamline processes, enhance capabilities, and implement
cutting-edge digital systems to ensure sustained success and drive
margin improvement.

Dec ’23: The resolution plan submitted by the Company for the
acquisition of ACIL Ltd. under corporate insolvency resolution
process has been approved by the Hon’ble National Company Law
Tribunal, New Delhi (“NCLT”).

Nov ‘23: Company has made an additional investment of INR 10


Cr by way of rights issue in RKFL Engineering Industry Private
Limited, wholly owned subsidiary company to part finance the
acquisition of JMT Auto Limited and other general corporate
purposes.

Aug ‘23: Company expands its footprint into the South American
Market with INR 74 Cr contract win.

Aug ‘23: Company won an award valued at 17.2 Million Euros (INR
156 Cr) from a Eurasian customer in farm equipment’s industry.
The contract extends over a period of 4 years.

Aug ‘23: The resolution plan submitted for the acquisition under
corporate insolvency resolution process of JMT Auto Limited by
Ramakrishna Forgings Limited as the resolution applicant as
approved by the committee of creditors of JMT on 16th January
2023, under the terms of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code,
2016, has now been approved verbally by the Principal Bench of
the National Company Law Tribunal, New Delhi (“NCLT”).

Aug ‘23: Company has won 16 Million Euros (INR 145 Cr) Contract
for Differential Components.

Aug ‘23: Strengthens North American presence through $13.65mn


annual business deal for rear axle and transmission components.

Jul ‘23: BoD approved an investment to acquire Multitech Auto and


its wholly owned subsidiary Mal Metalliks with a capacity to
manufacture 21,600 MTPA of Machined SG & CI Castings.
Multitech Auto also has the capacity for Bar Draw Facility of 6000
MTPA. The Company has also acquired Mal Auto Products.

Jul ‘23: Company has commenced the commercial production of


13,700 TPA of RA shaft – Press Line and 10,100 TPA of 5 inch
Upsetter. This will enhance the production capacity of the
Company by 23,800 TPA. The total production of the capacity of

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 14


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
the Company will now be 2,10,900 TPA from earlier 1,87,100 TPA.
As of Jun ‘23, capacity utilisation was 92%.

Jun ‘23: Company secures order worth INR 4.5 Million Euros from
Prominent European Railway Passenger Coach Manufacturer.

Apr ‘23: Company has renewed long-term contract with additional


new product range with Overseas Tier 1 customer based in North
America and the same is valid till 31 December, 2027.

Mar ‘23: Company’s consortium with Titagarh received LoA from


Min. of Railways for manufacturing and supply of forged wheels
under long-term agreement (20y) for INR 12k Cr.

Mar ‘23: Company is planning to set up 7.8 MW Solar Power Plant


in Seraikela and Dugni in Jamshedpur for its captive
consumption, reducing dependency on grid power. Cost of the
project is estimated to be around INR 35 Crores.

Dec ‘22: Company plans to expand its EV portfolio; to acquire


51% voting rights in TSUYO Manufacturing, a Make-In-India
startup company engaged in powertrain solutions for EVs.
LT OP = Long-term operating profit; ST OP = Short-term operating profit

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 15


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15th Mar 2024
5. SRIVARI SPICES & FOODS LIMITED NSE: SSFL
(SME: Lot Size = 1,000 shares) (1st time covered: 22nd Nov 2023)

Recent filing: (EXPANSION OF DISTRIBUTION) Srivari Spices & Foods has successfully placed its
products in 29 Ushodaya Supermarket stores across Hyderabad and Secunderabad. This strategic initiative
is in line with Company’s expansion of distribution channels.

SUMMARY: 4y Operating Profit uptrend | 2h Operating Profit uptrend | PE 33.8x (Sector PE range 30-100) |
Excellent Sep-23 results | Expanding distribution | Consumption

• MCap of INR 176 Crore (share price = INR 246 /share) (as on 15th Mar ‘24)
• TTM PE 33.8x (as on 15th Mar ‘24) Retail float = 13.9% (Sep-23)

Company Description: Company specializes in the production and distribution of a diverse range of organic
food products, primarily focusing on spices and flour (chakki atta). These products are meticulously crafted
to maintain their natural freshness, nutritional value and authenticity. Company’s commitment to using high
quality, hand-piked raw materials set it products apart in terms of taste, aroma and health benefits.

Share price and Volume (last 1 year):

Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Srivar - - - - - 149 111 121 195 188 265 278

(In INR Cr) Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Sales - - - - - 12.3 23.5 31.0
Op Profit - - - - - 1.3 4.6 5.1
Net Profit - - - - - 0.5 2.6 2.6
OPM - - - - - 11% 20% 17%
NPM - - - - 4% 11% 8%
Promoter % - - - - - - - 69.9%

(In INR Cr) Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM
Sales - - 0.2 11.4 17.6 35.8 54.5
Op Profit - - -0.0 0.8 1.6 5.9 9.7
Net Profit - - -0.1 0.4 0.7 3.1 5.2
Website: https://srivarispices.com/
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15th Mar 2024
Company Type Evergreen
LT OP uptrend Yes
ST OP uptrend Yes
PE 37.5 (FMCG: 30-100)
Lower end of sector range

Futuristic Sector No

Dec ‘23: Ajapa Bose bought 38k shares at INR 205/share, aggregating
to INR 77L.

HNI / Institutional Nov ‘23: Rajesh Kumar bought 37k shares at INR 155/share,
/ Promoter Yes aggregating to INR 57L.

Buying Aug ‘23: Rohan Sudhakar Jadhav bought 45k shares at INR
110/share, aggregating to 50L INR. Himansu Sekhar Padhy bought
36k shares at INR 117/share, aggregating to INR 42L.

Special Situation Yes IPO in Aug ‘23

Feb ‘24: Company has entered into a marketing arrangement with


SOLV, a B2B e-commerce marketplace for MSMEs, incubated by SC
Ventures of Standard Chartered Bank, UK. Through this, Company
aims to utilize the tools and resources offered by SOLV to facilitate
seamless business transactions, foster market expansion, and
streamline its operational processes across the country.

Future Visibility Yes


Feb ‘24: A wholly owned subsidiary of the Company has been
incorporated by the name of Srivari Supply Chain Private Limited to
lead its logistics and distribution operations, ensuring the seamless
and timely movement of products from manufacturers. Further, this
strategic initiative is in line with the Company’s future expansion plans.

Feb ‘24: Company has successfully placed its products in 50 Reliance


Limited Stores across the state of Telangana and 13 Balaji Grand
Bazar Stores across the city of Hyderabad.

LT OP = Long-term operating profit; ST OP = Short-term operating profit

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 17


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15th Mar 2024
Others
VISHNU PRAKASH R PUNGLIA LIMITED
(ORDER) Company has received letter of acceptance worth INR 104 Cr from the Office of Assistant General
Manager, HSIIDC Kharkhoda for the Construction of 57 MLD WTP and all contingent works thereto in all
respect along with 10 years of Operation and Maintenance at IMT Kharkhoda, District Sonipat (on EPC
Mode).

• MCap of INR 1,985 Cr (Share Price = INR 159 / Share); TTM PE 21.2x (as on 26th Dec ‘23)
Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Vishnu - - - - - - 173 193 203 216 214 175

PREMIER EXPLOSIVES LIMITED


(CAPACITY EXPANSION) Company has received an "in principle" approval from The Industrial Promotion
& Investment Corporation of Odisha Limited for setting up a Defence Explosives, Raw Materials and
Ammunition Plant, in 3 phases at Rayagada district with an investment of INR 864 Cr.

• MCap of INR 1,494 Cr (Share Price = INR 1,381 / Share); TTM PE 62.2x (as on 26th Dec ‘23)
Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Premi 404 419 421 436 1,010 1,151 1,005 1,317 1,424 1,588 1,393 1,489

ACCENT MICROCELL LIMITED


(PROMOTER BUYING) Promoter and Promoter Group bought 1.6L equity shares at INR 233/share,
aggregating to INR 3.6 Cr.

• MCap of INR 497 Cr (Share Price = INR 236 / Share); TTM PE 24.2x (as on 26th Dec ‘23)
Price Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Accent - - - - - - - - - 292 291 272

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 18


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
IPO

Note: GMP keeps updating till listing on exchange. Subscription (x) keeps updating till Issue is Open.
Revenue and Profit growth is calculated after annualizing last period growth.

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 19


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Sovrenn SME Index: -0.09%

Sovrenn SME Index was down 0.09% today. Please note that the constituents of the Index are
private. Also, the Index is only an indication of the movement of the broader SME market and not
available for replication or commercialization in any form. Sovrenn has the right to make changes to
Index constituents or change weightages of the constituents as per its own discretion.

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90
Sovrenn SME Index at: 136.14 (1 day change 0.09%)
80
15 Sep 23 15 Oct 23 15 Nov 23 15 Dec 23 15 Jan 24 15 Feb 24 15 Mar 24

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 20


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Sovrenn Macro
Understanding India's Wholesale Inflation Trends

Introduction
India's wholesale price-based inflation experienced a slight easing, reaching 0.2% in February from 0.27% in
January. This marks the fourth consecutive month of positive territory. Looking ahead, March figures are
expected to remain inflationary, albeit at a reduced rate compared to February.

February's Data Analysis: In February, the inflation data fell in line with expectations. Essential commodity
prices like fuel, power, and manufactured goods declined, while food and crude oil prices saw slight increase.
This contrasts with the deflationary trend observed from April to October the previous year, largely due to
price declines across various sectors.

Comparative Insights: February's wholesale inflation stands notably lower than the revised 0.86% recorded
in December 2023, the highest since April 2023. Additionally, the current figure is substantially lower
compared to the same period last year, which stood at 3.85%.

Sectoral Examination: The rise in wholesale price index (WPI) can be attributed to increases in prices of food,
crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, machinery, equipment, and motor vehicles. Despite these increases,
manufactured products, which account for a significant portion of the index, have remained in deflation for
twelve consecutive months. Similarly, the fuel and power components also exhibit deflationary trends.

Food Inflation Dynamics: Food inflation experienced a marginal rise to 6.95% in February, driven by
increasing prices of essential food items such as paddy, pulses, vegetables, onions, and potatoes. Notably,
onions, potatoes, and tomatoes have been experiencing high inflation rates since August and November
2023, respectively.

Other Price Movements: Non-food articles witnessed a decline of 6.29%, fuel and power prices fell by 1.59%,
while crude petroleum and natural gas prices surged by 8.24% during February. Additionally, prices of
manufactured products declined by 1.27% during the same period.

Underlying Causes and Concerns: Earlier deflationary trends were influenced by favorable bases and falling
commodity prices. However, the shift to positive territory in November was driven by increasing food prices
and diminishing base effects. Concerns remain regarding the volatility in international crude oil prices due to
ongoing tensions in West Asia, according to economists.

Policy Outlook: Despite benign wholesale inflation expectations for March 2024, the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) is likely to maintain policy rates unchanged at 6.5%, given concerns about retail inflation exceeding the
Central Bank's comfort level. Regulation of interest rates remains a crucial instrument for the Central Bank
to control inflation, influencing borrowing costs and consumer spending.

In conclusion, while wholesale inflation in India shows signs of stability, concerns persist regarding volatile
international crude oil prices and persistent retail inflation, shaping the monetary policy decisions of the
Reserve Bank of India, shortly.

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Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Annexure
Sector specific PE classification:

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Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
15th Mar 2024
Retail float calculation:
Shareholding percent for resident individuals holding nominal share capital up to INR 2L.

Special Situation:
Special Situation refers to any form of capital raise by the Company – Preferential issuance or allotment
of equity shares, Preferential issuance or allotment of equity warrants, Rights issuance, recently
conducted IPO / FPO or issuance of any debt security like NCDs, commercial papers, etc.

Future Visibility:
Future Visibility refers to a piece of information / event that positively impacts future revenues. Examples:
a large order win by the company, partnership / acquisition, new factory setup, expansion in existing
factory, new stores, launch of a new brand, etc.

Futuristic Sector:
Futuristic Sector refers to those sectors where high growth is expected. Examples: Green Energy (solar,
wind, etc.), Electric Vehicle, Railways (through railways modernization), Defence (through increasing self-
reliance), New-Age IT (Cloud, AI, ML, big data), 5G, Electrification, etc.

This page is created for information purpose. It is not a BUY/SELL recommendation. 23


Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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