Audrey Bourgoin: Bourgoin@geod - Tu-Darmstadt - de

Evaluation of the Climate Adaptation
Plans of Cities Against Heat Waves Using

the Impact Logic of Municipal Action:
A Study of Medium-Sized Cities
in the “Warmest Climatic Regions”
of Germany
Audrey Bourgoin
Abstract Urban populations are severely affected by prolonged periods of heat,

whose frequency and severity increase with climate change, and which are esca-
lated by urban spaces, as they combine concentrated systems (such as vehicles, AC
systems, and industries) releasing heat into the urban environment, and a high degree
of sealed urban structures, which intensifies heat island effects and hinders fresh air
supply. Municipalities have limited resources to face escalating climate-related chal-
lenges and they need to find strategies to employ their resources to prepare structures
and practices for the consequences of heat waves. The aim of this paper is there-
fore to present a methodology to evaluate the current adaptation plans of cities to
warmer summers to adjust their planning practices (plans, instruments, financing)
to counteract future climate threats. This research analyses current climate adap-
tation plans of medium-sized cities located in the “warmest climatic regions” of
Germany, with regard to the diversity of instruments used, their implementation
status, and the degree of detail of the developed strategies (e.g., using the “impact
logic” of municipal action). The diversity of instruments used is assessed based on
the distribution of the measures in the main categories “Grey infrastructure (urban
and building structures)”, “Green infrastructure”, “Blue infrastructure” and “Com-
plementary instruments”, and their sub-categories. The implementation status of
each measure is ranked on a four-level scale from “in planning” to “evaluable”. The
“impact logic” of municipal action is also a 4-level scale, which classes each strategy
between “Input”, “Output”, “Outcome”, and “Impact”, whereas “Impact” represents
the most conceptual level of planning with its goal and “input” constitutes the most
concrete level, with a focus on the resource invested. The research intends to provide
insights into the current climate adaptation planning practices, which have so far
been rather conceptual and planning oriented. Finally, the research intends to expand
A. Bourgoin (B)
Technische Universität Darmstadt, Franziska-Braun-Str. 7, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany
e-mail: bourgoin@geod.tu-darmstadt.de
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2024 167
V. T. Ha et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Sustainable
Urban Development, Advances in 21st Century Human Settlements,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-8003-1_11
168 A. Bourgoin
on the criticism that medium-sized cities must better define their measures to achieve
previously abstract goals and implement (and monitor) the measures promptly.
Keywords Urban resilience · Cities · Climate adaptation · Heat · Germany
1 Introduction
1.1 Motivation
Climate change has led, in the last decades, to an increase in hot summers in Europe
[7]. These already noticeable impacts are providing insight into the expected devel-
opments until the end of the century, as extreme weather events such as heatwaves
are foreseen to increase along with the magnitude of global warming [35]. As climate
change can no longer be totally prevented, it becomes increasingly necessary to plan
and execute measures to adapt to future climatic conditions [21, 39].
Cities, their systems, and their population can be especially affected by prolonged
periods of heat. Indeed, urban spaces combine concentrated systems (such as vehi-
cles, AC systems, and industries) releasing heat into the urban environment, and
a high degree of sealed urban structures, which intensifies heat island effects and
hinders fresh air supply. All of this can lead to severe consequences for the health of
the population.
Although some municipalities already recognized the need to take action on this
topic, they have limited resources to face escalating climate-related challenges and
they need to find strategies to best employ their resources to prepare structures and
practices for the consequences of heat waves.
1.2 Aim and Structure of This Paper
The aim of this paper is therefore to present a methodology to evaluate the current
adaptation plans of cities to warmer summers, in order to enable cities to later adjust
their planning practices (plans, instruments, financing) to counteract future climate
threats.
This paper begins in with an overview of the main impacts of climate change in
Germany and in its “warmest climatic region”. The effects of heatwaves on urban
populations show the urgent need for urban climate adaptation measures (Chap. 2). In
the following chapter, the basics of the evaluation theories for the assessment of urban
climate adaptation plans will be presented: first, the requirements for the adaptation of
a city to challenges are discussed, then the contribution that impact logic can make
to the assessment of the effectiveness of municipal action will be explained, and
finally, the categories of tools and measures to adapt cities to a warmer climate will
Evaluation of the Climate Adaptation Plans of Cities Against Heat … 169
be expanded upon. Chapter 4 presents the methodology used to conduct the different
parts of the analysis: the diversity of instruments envisioned in the adaptation plan,
their implementation status, and the degree of detail of the developed strategies in
the different categories of the “impact logic” of municipal action will be evaluated.
Chapter 5 is dedicated to the presentation of the analysis results of current adaptation
plans of medium-sized cities located in the “warmest climatic regions” of Germany.
In Chap. 6, the author will formulate recommendations, based on the results of the
analysis. Afterward, the limits of the approach used will be discussed as well as the
need for further data and research. Finally, Chap. 7 summarizes the main findings of
this paper and concludes with an outlook.
2 Theoretical Framework: Impacts of Climate Change

in Germany and Adaptation’s Necessity
2.1 Impacts of Climate Change in Germany
The consequences of global warming are already noticeable in Germany, as since

1881, an increase in temperatures of 0.3 °C/decade during spring and 0.15 °C/decade
in autumn has already been observed. The extreme values have also changed signif-
icantly: between 1881 and 2020, the daily minimum temperature and the daily
maximum temperature each rose on average by about +0.5 °C/decade, which is
twice as much as that of the daily mean temperature [7].
German climatic regions. The German Federal Environment Agency
(“Umweltbundesamt (UBA)”) evaluated the spatial patterns of 14 climate indi-
cators with cluster analysis and defined seven homogeneous climatic regions1 in
Germany (see Fig. 1). Spaces clustered in the same climatic regions exhibit similar
climatic conditions for the reference period (1971–2000), the middle of the century
(2031–2060), and the end of the century (2071–2100).
2.2 Climate Change in Germany’s “Warmest Climatic

Region”
Germany’s “warmest climatic region” comprises mainly parts of western Germany

along the Rhine river as well as some areas in the east near the Spree river. It has
currently the highest mean temperatures (2.0 °C in winter and 18.2 °C in summer)
1 Climatic regions are relatively homogeneous, delimitable spaces in terms of climate, which were
identified by means of a cluster analysis.
170 A. Bourgoin
Fig. 1 Map of the seven climatic regions in Germany [39]. Source UBA
as well as the highest average of hot days2 (9.2 days/year) and tropical nights3
(0.5 nights/year) in Germany.4
Middle of the century. Current scenarios foresee that these areas will remain the
warmest in Germany in the future as the greatest increase in hot days and tropical
2 Days with maximum daytime temperature above 30 degrees Celsius.

3 Nights with minimum temperature above 20 degrees Celsius.
4 Mean values measured during the reference period (1971–2000).
nights is to be expected there. The 50th percentile of scenarios projections anticipates

for the “middle of the century” in comparison to the reference period more than
doubling of the mean number of hot days in this climatic region (+10.4 days/year)
and more than a tenfold increase in the number of tropical nights (+5.0 nights/year).
The increase of 11% in mean winter precipitation in the region for the “middle of
the century” is in line with the average for other climate regions in Germany.
End of the century. Projections for the end of the century predict alarming
increases in hot days (+27.8 days/year on average) and tropical nights (+19.1 nights/
year on average). The 15th and 85th percentiles of the RCP8.5 scenario show a broad
range in the possible values, which may vary from 20 hot days in the 15th percentile
to a maximum of 56 hot days in the 85th percentile. An average increase of 20% in
mean winter precipitation is to be expected, which is the highest increase after that
of the “Southeast” region [38].
2.3 Impact of Climate Change and especially Heatwaves

on the Urban Population
Climate change leads to significant impacts on human health, livelihoods, and key
infrastructure, especially in more densely populated cities and regions [6, 21]. One
of the most well-known consequences of global warming in cities is the increasing
number of heatwaves and the formation of heat islands, which can greatly affect the
health of the urban population.
Impact of climate change on cities. Climate change can lead to the following
impacts on the built environment: damage to buildings, damage to infrastructure,
damage to vegetation in settlements, changes in urban climate/heat islands, and
affect the following elements of the urban environment: indoor climate, ground-
level ozone, air quality (smog), hygienic situation in settlements, cooling/heating
energy demand… [36]. The IPCC already reports an intensification of heatwaves in
cities, which also aggravated air pollution events and hindered the functioning of key
infrastructure. Economically and socially marginalized urban residents are among
the most impacted [21]. The German Association of Cities (German: "Deutscher
Städtetag") also warns that risks for residents, infrastructure, or the urban greenery
will continue to increase because of extreme summer temperatures, heavy droughts,
and storms in Germany [6].
Urban climate and urban heat islands. In urban areas, the dense development
and local emissions lead to the formation of special local climatic conditions forming
what is called an “urban climate” [28, 41]. Urban heat islands (UHI) are typical
features of the urban climate. They are characterized by a difference in air temperature
between the warmer city and its cooler surrounding area. The difference can usually
be up to about 10 °C in large cities [23]. The intensity of the UHI effect depends on
the weather conditions and on the characteristics of the city. Its maximum is reached
during cloud-free and windless nights. Factors such as the city geometry, the thermal
172 A. Bourgoin
properties of the building materials, the radiation properties of the surfaces, the energy
balance, and anthropogenic heat releases contribute greatly to a warmer urban air
temperature compared to the surrounding areas and thus to increased urban heat
islands [8, 36].
Increasing urbanization contributes to an intensification of the heat island effect,
particularly through increasing density and soil sealing in cities [15]. In addition, the
expected increase in summer heat extremes may in turn increase the frequency and
intensity of UHI in the future [17, 36].
The effects of urban heat islands are manifold. In the summer months, they
increase the risk of heat stress for urban citizens. The high air temperature in cities
during heatwaves also leads to increased use of cooling systems and air conditioning,
which entails a high energy consumption and thus rising costs [8].
Direct heat-related risks for human health. Heatwaves and their associated
effects can have extensive consequences for the population. Heat can directly affect
the major organs of a person (brain, heart, lungs, kidneys…) and even negatively
impact a pregnancy. Increasing temperatures and heatwaves can indeed induce “heat
stress” for people, exposing their bodies to the risk of overheating, which can induce
physiological stress, exacerbate illnesses, result in heat strokes, heat exhaustion and
a higher risk of injuries and carries an increased risk of death [31, 40]. People with
fragile health such as elderly people, people with pre-existing conditions, for example
with troubles with the cardiovascular system, pregnant women, and small children
are often particularly vulnerable to heat stress [8]. Outdoor workers and poor people
can also be particularly exposed, making them vulnerable to excessive heat [40].
Heat can impact mental health too and increase mental health challenges, including
anxiety and stress [21].
Heatwaves in Europe and Germany have repeatedly led to high mortality rates:
between 1980 and 2020, about 130,000 fatalities from heatwave events were reported
in European countries, which is more than 90% of the deaths caused by weather and
climate-related extreme events during this period [12, 38].
Other indirect consequences of heat on people. In addition to the direct effects
of heat on the human body, heat-related events can also negatively impact people:
weather and climate extreme events can lead to trauma, and loss of livelihoods and
cultures. Warm days and heatwaves also lead to the emission of wildfire smoke,
atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens, which themselves can increase the risk of
cardiovascular and respiratory distress [21]. The German Federal Environment
Agency also lists additional side effects of global warming, such as: UV-related
health damage (especially skin cancer), change in distribution and abundance
change of potential vectors, etc. [37].
2.4 Necessity of Urban Climate Adaptation
Governmental and non-governmental organizations are united in their appreciation

that “worldwide climate resilient development action is more urgent than previously
assessed” [21]. The German Federal Environment Agency lists “Urban climate/heat
island” and “indoor climate” among the fields with “very urgent needs for action”,
meaning that the climate risk is either presently already high or is estimated to be
high for the middle or end of the century and that adaptation measures must already
be started now, due to a medium or long adaptation period [39].
Urban resilience. It is the ability of an urban system to 1. “maintain or rapidly
return to desired functions in the face of a disturbance” (i.e., the quality of “robust-
ness”), and 2. “to adapt to change, and to quickly transform systems that limit current
or future adaptive capacity” [29] (i.e., the quality of “adaptability”). It can play a
central role in the mitigation of the risks arising from climate change. Robustness,
as the ability to absorb crises or shocking events or to limit their adverse effects and
consequences (i.e., reduce vulnerability5 ), cannot be fully achieved and maintained,
as it is difficult to develop reliable predictions for complex dynamic events, with
sometimes cumulative effects [25]. Therefore, adaptation—which is the ability to
“adapt to the changed framework conditions (…) in order to permanently prevent or
at least reduce adverse effects”—is also required to play a central role in reducing
exposure & vulnerability to climate change [21, 25].
Adaptation. Adaptation can happen in anticipation of the risk or reactively. It
can take the form of incremental changes and/ or transformational adaptation, where
whole systems evolve [21]. There are currently quite big “adaptation gaps” between
the current (or even the planned) adaptation level and the necessary goals for urban
adaptation [5, 21]. The origin of these gaps lies in the weaknesses of the current
adaptation practices: they are too often “fragmented, small in scale, incremental,
sector-specific, designed to respond to current impacts or near-term risks, and focused
more on planning rather than implementation” [21]. To “close this adaptation gap”,
the IPCC recommends going beyond the current too often short-term planning and
instead developing long-term, concerted pathways as well as favorable conditions
for ongoing adaptation to ensure timely and effective implementation [21].
Adaptation at the local level. According to Albrecht et al. [1], the regional and
local levels are particularly well-placed to design and implement concrete measures
for local climate change adaptation, especially as “there is no single recipe for the
ideal adaptation”, seeing as climate change impacts vary between regions. By imple-
menting adaptation measures at an early stage, the dangers of climate change and
the potential damage by more frequent and more severe extreme weather events
can be minimized. Often, this requires structural measures that must first be inte-
grated (with the appropriate lead time) into municipal planning processes. This makes
urban and land-use planning a central instrument of climate adaptation, which, due
to its long-term effectiveness, can point the way for the future climate resilience
of municipalities. However, municipalities have limited resources to face escalating
climate-related challenges and they need to find strategies to employ their resources
to prepare structures and practices for the consequences of heat waves.
5 Vulnerability is “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected” [21].

174 A. Bourgoin
3 Basics of Urban Climate Adaptation
3.1 Requirements for the Adaptation of a City to Challenges
As outlined in the previous paragraphs, cities face significant challenges due to

climate change. They also need to deal with additional challenges such as demo-
graphic and economic changes, digitalization, etc. Some of these problems have
been known for a long time, some are new and many of them must be tackled under
uncertain conditions.
Thus, cities need to plan and carry out far-reaching transformations, with future-
oriented structures and functions, which can have far-reaching economic, social,
and ecological effects on the complex system of cities. Therefore, careful impact
analyses and assessments of the consequences of planning decisions as well as close
cooperation between science and practice are needed to achieve a scientifically based,
balanced, and far-sighted planning.
All these diverse requirements for cities must be taken into account in the planning
strategies of the cities, which further need to be both long-term oriented and flexible
enough to make place for short-term problem-solving. Urban planning should there-
fore develop strategies and implementation plans aiming for long-term sustainability,
but also resilience to crises and disasters [26].
3.2 Measuring Municipal Action Using Impact Logic
Need to measure municipal action. Many cities want to improve their sustainability
and/or their climate resilience or achieve some other goals, may they be self-imposed
or coming from a higher level of government in a “top-down” logic. Therefore,
cities develop diverse and sophisticated agendas, concepts as well as monitoring and
management systems… However, there is too often a gap perceptible between, on
the one hand, the enthusiasm of the concepts combined with the effects they want to
achieve and, on the other hand, the activities undertaken, and resources available to
reach these aims.
As the IPCC’s calls are getting louder to end the period of orientation and begin
a period of implementation and, above all, of action, it is necessary to provide cities
with the means to measure the impact of their actions. Indeed, although numerous
feasible6 and effective7 adaptation measures exist for urban systems, their feasibility
and effectiveness are too often constrained by, among others, institutional and finan-
cial capacity, and depend on proper coordination and contextually appropriation of
6 “Feasibility refers to the potential for a mitigation or adaptation option to be implemented” [21].
7 “Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an adaptation option is anticipated or observed to
reduce climate-related risk” [21].
a standard approach to the specific framework conditions of the city (e.g., physical,
natural, and social infrastructure) [21].
Impact logic. Impact logic can provide cities with an effective tool to measure the
results of their actions: it enables its users to systematically correlate and compare
the planned impact goals with the resources necessary to achieve these goals and
the services that the project provides. Thus, it facilitates control of the project’s
plausibility and feasibility. Impact logic has been used in the fields of project planning
and evaluation since the 1970s and is thus a time-proven tool to represent and check
how a project works or is supposed to work. An impact logic shows an “itinerary”
for the project work and thus provides a basis for checking whether the project is
(still) on the right track and is hence the foundation for impact-oriented project work
and management [27].
There are different kinds of impact logics, known under different names, such as
“programming logic”, “theory of change”, “impact chains”, or “logical models”. All
of them aim to schematize the functioning of a project in a simplified form. In the
following, the impact logic is described in the form of the so-called “logic model”,
which is one of the most widely used versions of the impact logic, as it can be used for
most projects. Here, impact logic provides the frame to systematically identify the
resources that go into an activity (input), the achievements that the activity produces
(output), the effects of that activity on the target group (outcome), and lastly the
effect for society as a whole (impact) [32]. In the following, we will describe the
individual components in more detail and expand on how they relate to each other.
A summarized representation of the impact logic of municipal action toward climate
adaptation can subsequently be found in Fig. 2.
Inputs (resources). The inputs (resources) include all the means necessary to invest
to successfully implement the project. These include first and foremost the staff and
their working hours, the financial resources, the facilities, and the equipment needed
for the implementation of the project. For realistic project planning and project
expectations, all necessary resources must be listed here. It constitutes the foundation
of the measure’s effectiveness [27].
In the example of climate adaptation, the inputs can be the number of staff dedi-
cated to the projects, the time they can devote to execute the requested projects, such
as planting trees or conducting an information campaign on landscaped gardens and
front yards, the financial investment the municipal consents to, to support its staff as
well as the equipment available to the staff.
Outputs (services). The outputs comprise the (countable) offers, products, actions,
first effects, or even services of a project, i.e., what a project does or offers ([27] ebd.).
In our example of climate adaptation, the outputs can be the number of trees planted
or the realization of the aforementioned information campaign.
The outputs can at times be directly related to the inputs (resources) used, which
enables statements to be made about the efficient implementation of the project. In
our example, it can be determined how much the project costs per planted tree or per
resident reached.
From outputs to outcomes and impacts. Transforming outputs into outcomes and
then impacts is crucial for the successful effectiveness of the project. Therefore,
176 A. Bourgoin
Fig. 2 Impact logic of the municipal action toward climate adaptation (own figure adapted from
Peters [32])
making the difference between these levels is essential for impact-oriented project
work, in order not to mistake one for the other and thus to miss the aim. The differ-
ence between outputs and impacts can be illustrated by the practical example of
climate adaptation: climate adaptation project leaders and employees implemented
their project with great commitment, they selected and then planted trees in the streets
identified as particular places of heat urban island. But has this already had a positive
effect (=outcome) on the street climate? The outputs are the prerequisite for a project
to have an impact through its activities. However, the effects themselves only occur
when positive changes occur in the selected streets, which ultimately enable them
to influence the neighborhood or up to the whole city. A distinction can indeed be
made between effects at the level of the target group (outcomes) and effects at the
societal level (impacts) [27].
Outcomes (effects at the level of the local target). Outcomes are the direct effects
of the project, or the changes the project aims to bring about, at the level of the local
target (or target groups) [27].
Continuing with our example of measures for climate adaptation, after having
planted the trees and/or conducted the information campaign on landscaped gardens
and front yards, a temperature reduction should be observed in the street (target),
compared to days with the same atmospheric conditions in the past.
Impacts (effects at the level of society). While outcomes are focused on the specific
target of the project, impacts describe the desired changes at the “societal level”. As
it is not always meaningful, nor possible, to anticipate that inhabitants of the whole
city will profit from the achieved local changes, it might often be more reasonable to
consider the “larger society” to be the inhabitants of a neighborhood or of a district.
In our example of climate adaptation, the impacts could take the form of less
urban heat in the district or better comfort for the users of the developed street.
The path from local outcome to societal impact is less clear than the previous
relationships between the other elements of the impact analysis path. Indeed, some
who benefit from the effects do not necessarily have to have come into direct contact
with the organization’s activities, e.g., passersby profiting from the street’s amelio-
rated temperature may not have heard from the information campaign on landscaped
gardens and front yards, which was targeted at residents of the street. Concurrently,
it also means that the influence of the project on the achievement of some effects at
the impact level is fuzzier than on the effects at the outcome level. This is because
many other factors besides the project influence developments at the societal level.
For instance, the quality of life of the street’s passersby is not substantially improved,
just because one street has become slightly more comfortable to walk through. There-
fore, the project should only strive to contribute to the effects at the impact level,
while focusing on the outcome level where the concrete effects that are to be achieved
by the project take place (ebd [27]).
The creation of an impact logic path can be done in two directions: “from the
impacts to the inputs” and “from the inputs to the impacts”. The direction “from
the impacts to the inputs” is better suited for impact-oriented project planning, as it
focuses on the effects the project aims to achieve and plans the necessary resources
accordingly. Projects starting their planning in the other direction risk limiting their
aim by the limited resources they want to invest, thus staying in a “status quo” rather
than having big ambitions. The planning direction “from inputs to impacts” can
however be helpful in a second step to perform a “plausibility check” on the impact
logic of the project [27].
178 A. Bourgoin
3.3 Categories of Tools and Measures to Adapt Cities

to a Warmer Climate
To adapt cities to a warmer climate, municipalities, associations of cities as well

as some governmental branches supporting them in their tasks developed many
measures, which they bundle into categories to give their public a better overview.
Categorization used by various stakeholders. The IPCC encourages poli-
cymakers to formulate responses for climate adaptation across physical, natural
(ecosystem), and social infrastructures.
The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group for instance proposes 6 categories
of measures: “Green infrastructure”, “Blue infrastructure”, “Grey infrastructure”,
“Urban development”, “Communication, and outreach” as well as “Policy” [4].
The German city of Herten divides its “Climate adaptation concept” into seven
categories: “General measures”, “Urban development and municipal planning”,
“Water management”, “Biodiversity and nature conservation”, “Human health, and
social infrastructure”, “Building and housing”, as well as “Economy” [11].
The city of Landau in der Pfalz in its “Climate adaptation concept” opted for
five categories: “Green and open space development”, “Water-sensitive city”, “Agri-
culture, forestry and nature conservation”, “Planning and building”, as well as
“Communication, health, and social affairs” [14].
Thus, it is clear that there seem to be as many categorizations possibilities as
there are of stakeholders dealing with the challenge of urban climate adaptation, but
some topics are staying constant: the built infrastructure, the vegetation and nature
(green infrastructure), and the topic of water. Other areas, such as the economy and
communication, seem mostly to complete the three categories previously listed.
Categorization used in this article. As the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is
due to a higher amount of sealed surfaces in cities, a lack of vegetation and a lack of
cooling through vegetation and water bodies (see Sect. 2.3), it seems appropriate to
measure the focus specially placed on these aspects by assigning them each their own
category: “Grey infrastructure (urban & building structures)”, “Green infrastructure,
and “Blue infrastructure”. Analysis of the concepts of various cities and organizations
concur with these three categories.
As these three categories, through the main addressed by specialists, are not
enough cover the whole spectrum of measures, a fourth category of “Comple-
mentary instruments” was adjoined to them, encompassing all additional measures
accompanying and reinforcing other measures.
Grey infrastructure (urban & building structures). As increasing urbanization,
particularly through increasing density and land sealing in cities, contributes to an
intensification of the heat island effect [15], it was decided to assess the measures
addressing the topic of “Urban development—density and air flow”. Land sealing
also contributes to the heat sensation outside, but it can be attenuated with shading
(e.g., by man-made structures or vegetation), thus building the sub-category “heat
outside”. Increasing surface albedo through roofs, walls and street surfaces with high-
reflectance materials can also reduce the consequences of urban heat waves, thus the
inclusion of the topic of “albedo” in the category “grey infrastructure” [21]. Working
on the design of “Building facades”, through e.g., the use of natural thermo-regulating
building materials, better insulation, facade greening, or cooling installations on the
facade can also participate to increase the comfort of the population during warm
days. Lastly, the “indoor climate” is also influenced by the urban outdoor climate
and requires changes for building inner equipment (ventilation system…) [36].
Green infrastructure. It is internationally acknowledged that vegetation in settle-
ments plays a central role in climate-friendly and climate-adapted settlement devel-
opment. The German Federal Environment Agency advises the planting and care of
vegetation providing “Cold air corridors” in the city to cool it, and the planting of
“Trees”, which cool their environment through evapotranspiration [36]. Both “Public
spaces” and “Private spaces” can be specifically addressed, but some measures like
the Reduction of gravel gardens or the installation of permeable paving can be
promoted for both “Urban public & private areas”. Lastly, it is important to consider
“Climate-adapted fauna and flora”, especially heat and drought-stress-tolerant plants
and trees. Other vegetation-related measures, which are not part of the usual measures
to adapt cities to climate change via its green infrastructure (e.g., measures related
to allergens or agriculture), can be included in the sub-category “others”.
Blue Infrastructure. Analyses of the main measures usually recommended enable
to determine four main categories of water-related measures for urban climate
adaptation.
● The measures directly contributing to a “Reduction of air temperature”, like the
creation and preservation of open and moving water areas or the implementation
of integrated irrigation concepts for green spaces.
● The measures providing “Heat relief for people”, like the installation of drinking
water dispensers and drinking fountains in public spaces.
● The “rainwater”-oriented measures, like decentralized water retention, and
infiltration areas.
● As well as measures for “flood protection”.
● Other measures, such as the ones concerning the water quality were aggregated
under the sub-category “others”.
Complementary instruments. The category “complementary instruments”
comprises a broad and very mixed range of instruments supporting the effects
of the measures of the three categories. It was divided into the following seven
sub-categories:
● “Communication and public relations”: e.g., information campaign for citizens
and cooling centers (also called “climate refuges”, “cool spots”, or “cool islands”);
● “Public participation”: e.g., cooperation exchange with companies, partnership
systems between volunteers and vulnerable citizens, etc.
180 A. Bourgoin
Table 1 Categories and sub-categories of instruments for urban adaptation to a warmer climate
Grey infrastructure Green Blue Complementary
infrastructure infrastructure instruments
• Urban development- • Cold air corridors • Reduction of the air • Communication and
density and • Trees temperature public relations
air flow • Green spaces • Heat relief for • Public participation
• Heat outside • Public spaces people • Resources
• Albedo • Private spaces • Rainwater • Regulatory
• Building facades • Urban public & • Flood protection instruments
• Interior design in private areas • Others • Economic
building • Climate-adapted instruments
fauna and flora • Planning
• Others instruments and
concepts
• Others
● “Resources” include what the city is willing to invest in climate adaptation-related

projects, such as a climate manager or even a whole climate adaptation department,
or explicitly listing measures for climate adaptation in the municipal budget.
● “Regulatory instruments” include among others climate-proof urban development
and urban land use planning, (local) guidelines for climate design of buildings,
and regulations for cool/green roofs.
● “Economic instruments” can be for instance tax rebate programs for rainwater
retention or sustainable home cooling measures or subsidies for the installation
of green/white roofs or facades on new and existing (residential or commercial)
buildings or planting trees and greening courtyards…
● “Planning instruments and concepts” lastly include roader plans like heat action
plans, planning information maps on urban climate, simulations of the climatic
effects of urban development projects, etc.
● “Others” includes cooperation with other programs, statistics, and everything that
could not be included in the six previous sub-categories.
Table 1 gives an overview of the four previously presented categories and their
sub-categories of instruments for urban adaptation to a warmer climate, which will
be employed in the analysis part of this article.
4 Methodology
This paper makes a qualitative analysis of the level of development of currently

available climate adaptation plans and concepts of selected cities. Three aspects
will be analyzed in the published concepts: the diversity of instruments used, their
implementation status, and the degree of detail of the developed strategies, using the
“impact logic” of municipal action.
4.1 Selection of the Cities Analyzed
As already discussed in Sects. 1 and 2, cities from the German climatic region
“Warmest Region” are already particularly affected by heat days and heat waves and
will remain so for “mid-century”. However, German cities from other regions could
experience similar climatic conditions by the end of the century [35]. Therefore, find-
ings concerning the cities of the “warmest region” could provide valuable learning
experiences for the other cities, which could be later confronted with the same kind
of climatic challenges.
Medium-sized German cities (between 20,000 and 100,000 inhabitants) are
commonly associated in German society with places of good quality of life, along
with small towns, which make them most suitable to evaluate the efforts they invest to
keep or even raise this “quality of life” along with the “profile of the city”. Although
research in Germany has been centered mostly on large cities in the last decades,
medium-sized cities can also provide valuable insights for cities of other sizes. Small
and medium-sized cities harbor certain weaknesses (e.g., scarcity and distance to
material resources and personal resources) but also potentials (e.g., high degree of
diversity with lower staffing levels, more flexible action…), which influence their
way of dealing with planning tasks. Short distances, flexible administrative action
with flatter hierarchies, and proximity to citizens are also positive attributes generally
credited to medium-sized cities. They are also usually embedded in regional networks
or even supra-regional cooperation strategies, which facilitates the transfer of knowl-
edge. Professionals and researchers agree that experience gained by medium-sized
cities in dealing with necessary, but voluntary tasks such as climate adaptation despite
their intrinsic challenges can therefore provide useful or even exemplary insights for
the administration of other cities, be their smaller or larger [3].
Therefore, it was decided to analyze the current climate adaptation plans and
concepts of medium-sized cities located in the “warmest climatic regions” of
Germany.
Germany has a bit more than 2000 cities, 586 of which are medium-sized cities.
Out of these, 130 are in the “warmest climatic regions” of Germany and among them,
15 have (as of 1st September 2022) already published a climate adaptation concept.
Moreover, 14 more cities are currently planning or working on a climate adaptation
concept, which shows a marked interest in the topic on the part of the cities.
The climate adaptation plans and concepts of the 15 cities which already have one
are the object of the analysis of this publication. Table 2 gives an overview of these
cities in the different German federated states.
182 A. Bourgoin
Table 2 List of the cities whose climate adaptation concepts were analyzed
Federated state Cities analyzed (date of their Reference of the adaptation
plan) plan
Brandenburg (BB), 1 city: Bernau bei Berlin (2020) [22]
North Rhine-Westphalia Erkrath (2021) [16]
(NRW), Herten (2021) [11]
6 cities:
Hürth (2018) [9]
Lohmar (2016) [19]
Meerbusch (2020) [30]
Siegburg (2018) [20]
Baden-Württemberg (BW), Bühl (2018) [2]
2 cities: Ludwigsburg (2016) [13]
Rhineland- Landau in der Pfalz (2020) [14]
Palatinate (RLP), Speyer (2015) [34]
3 cities:
Worms (2016) [18]
Hesse (HE), Dietzenbach (2022) [24]
3 cities: Hanau (2019) (district of [33]
Großauheim, focus on health)
Rodgau (2019) [10]
4.2 Diversity of Instruments
The diversity of instruments planned by each climate adaptation plan is evaluated

based on the measures listed in the climate adaptation plan. For each analyzed
climate adaptation plan, all the measures listed were recorded and allocated to the
four main categories “Grey infrastructure (urban and building structures)”, “Green
infrastructure”, “Blue infrastructure” and “Complementary instruments”, and their
subcategories of instruments listed in Table 1.
Thereupon the distribution of the measures in the four categories and their subcat-
egories were analyzed, both for the whole group of cities, as well as for each city
compared to the others.
4.3 Implementation Status
The implementation status of the measures in each climate adaptation plan is

evaluated via the following four levels:
● “1—In planning”: for measures whose implementation has not yet started (or
been communicated about).
● “2—Test phase”: for measures being tested on a limited level, for instance as
part of local pilot projects.
Table 3 The four levels of the implementation status of measures

1-In planning 2-Test phase 3-Ongoing 4-Evaluable
Planned measures, not Measure initially Measure implemented Measure completed or
yet started implemented only as city-wide measure can already
part of pilot projects be assessed (e.g., for
permanent measures)
e.g., planting of trees e.g., planting of trees e.g., planting of trees e.g., planting of trees
planned in neighborhood X city-wide Y years ago & so
much survived
● “3—Ongoing”: for measures whose implementation is ongoing city-wide, but

without results to date.
● “4—Evaluable”: for measures that can be assessed, either because they are
completed or because their effects can already be evaluated if these measures
are intended to extend over a longer period.
Table 3 provides an overview of the four levels. The evaluation of the imple-
mentation status of the measures was based on the information available online to
the public (as of 1st September 2022): if there were somewhere mentions of some
measures already in stages 2 to 4, it was transcribed in the evaluation of the imple-
mentation of the concerned city’s adaptation plan. Should no information whatsoever
be found about the implementation status of any of the measures, all measures of the
city’s adaptation plan will be noted as being still at stage “1-In planning”, for lack
of contradictory information.
4.4 Degree of Detail of the Developed Strategies
Lastly, the degree of detail of each climate adaptation plan is evaluated, based on
the impact logic of the municipal action toward climate adaptation (see Fig. 2).
Although there is a time delay between the different elements, it is important for the
municipalities to clarify which resources they are ready to invest to reach their goals.
In “Impact” was listed everything concerning the overall aims of the city’s plan, the
long-term general effects (for inhabitants of the whole city or of the neighborhood),
which are aimed for via the establishment of the climate adaptation plan.
The category “Outcome” contains all the direct effects which can be expected
from the application of the climate adaptation plan or the changes the municipality
aims to achieve concerning local situations.
“Output” is the category for all the services and products the municipality intends
to provide with the enforcement of the climate adaptation concept.
Lastly, “Input” is the category where all information about the resources the
municipality plans to invest is gathered: mostly personnel and financial investment,
but also possibly a detailed description of the time investment necessary and of
material equipment and facilities needed to realize the planned measures.
184 A. Bourgoin
“Impact” represents the most conceptual level of planning with the very broad
goals of the municipality, whereas “input” constitutes the most concrete level, with a
focus on the resource invested. Therefore, the most precise description of the content
should be found at the “input” level, whereas the vaguest formulation of the whole
can be excepted at the “impact” level.
For each city, the elements concerning its climate adaptation plan in each of
the four categories were recorded and the results were subsequently qualitatively
analyzed.
5 Analysis Results
15 climate adaptation plans and concepts of medium-sized cities located in the

“warmest climatic regions” of Germany were analyzed regarding their diversity of
instruments used, the implementation status of their measures, and the degree of
detail of the developed strategies.
5.1 Diversity of Instruments: Great Variations Between

the Plans of the Different Cities
For each climate adaptation plan, all the measures listed were recorded and allocated
to the four categories (Grey infrastructure, Green infrastructure, Blue infrastruc-
ture, and Complementary measures) and their subcategories of instruments listed in
Table 1. Thereupon, it was analyzed which kind of measures and categories had the
preference of the cities.
Overview of the categories. The first overview of the total number of measures
shows a distinct willingness of the cities to tackle the challenge of climate change
adaptation, as on average each city developed about 38 measures. A finer analysis
shows that not all cities are equally prolific in the number of measures they developed,
as the individual number of measures varies between 16 (Dietzenbach, in Hesse) and
105 (Bernau b. Berlin, in Brandenburg).
The four categories (Grey infrastructure, Green infrastructure, Blue infrastruc-
ture, and Complementary measures) are represented in every climate adaptation
plan analyzed (except for blue infrastructure in Hürth), but not always to the same
extend (see Fig. 3). Out of the 573 measures listed in the 15 analyzed plans, 45% (259
measures) belong to the very broad category of “Complementary measures”. A bit
more than a quarter of all listed measures (149 measures) can be assigned to the cate-
gory “Green infrastructure”, which is crucial for cooling the streets. Next in numbers
(about 15% or 30 measures) are the measures related to the blue infrastructure.
Measures concerning the grey infrastructure form the smaller of the four groups (13%
or 75 measures), although it is crucial for cities to work on their built environment
to counteract the worst effect on urban heat islands.
Fig. 3 Distribution of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans along the four
categories “Grey”, “Green”, and “Blue” infrastructure, as well as “Complementary measures”
Some cities thus seem at the first glance to invest more energy in accompanying
measures instead of in the more infrastructure-related measures, which can however
have the most impact on making the cities more comfortable.
Grey infrastructure (urban & building structures). Out of the 75 measures
planned in this category by the 15 cities, more than half concerned the “Building
facades” and the topic of “Urban development—density and air”. These two aspects
are closely followed by the aspect of “Interior design in building”. The topic “Albedo”
was the least addressed (see Table 4).
A detailed analysis shows that no city developed measures in all the five sub-
categories defined. 9 out of the 15 analyzed plans contained measures about the “inte-
rior design of the buildings”, such as the use of natural thermo-regulating building
materials (e.g., brick, limestone, or wood), better insulation of the building enve-
lope, facade greening or shading or cooling installations on the facades. Noteworthy
is also that three cities each developed 5 or 6 measures to address the topic of “Urban
development—density and air”, which includes measures such as the reduction of the
Table 4 Repartition of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans in the five sub-
categories of “Grey infrastructure”
Grey infrastructure: 75 measures in total
Building facades 23
Urban development—density and air 22
Interior design in building 19
Heat outside 8
Albedo 3
186 A. Bourgoin
degree of sealing in new developments, loosened-up development with high propor-

tions of green spaces and working on urban geometry or optimization of building
orientation, height and the design of a building and building density, e.g., for air
circulation. These measures are essential to ensure that cities allow fresh air to enter
their quarters. The topic of the albedo was the most neglected as only two cities
planned together three measures about it (see Fig. 4).
The results show that all the plans of the analyzed cities comprise some measures
to mitigate urban warming via grey infrastructure, but it is also clear that some cities
are more aware than others of the big potential to mitigate warming in cities through
their action on urban development.
Green infrastructure. Out of the 149 measures planned by the 15 cities in this
category, about a third concerned the “Green spaces”, and a fifth the topic of “Trees”.
The five aspects “Cold air corridors”, “Public spaces”, “Climate-adapted fauna and
flora”, “Urban public & private areas” and “Others” total together half of the listed
measures. The topic “Private spaces” was the least addressed (see Table 5).
A detailed analysis shows that two cities (Bernau bei Berlin and Bühl) planned
each more than 30 measures, amounting together to nearly half (70 measures) of
the total amount of the measures listed in the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans.
These two cities addressed respectively seven of the eight sub-categories (Bernau
bei Berlin) and all the listed sub-categories (Bühl) in their adaptation plans. The city
of Landau in der Pfalz also addressed all sub-categories of “Green infrastructure”
measures in its climate adaptation plan (with 16 measures in total).
All cities addressed, however, the topic of “Green spaces” (with measures such as
the preservation of parks and open green spaces or with climate-friendly development
of urban green spaces), even the city of Lohmar for which it is its single measure in
Fig. 4 Distribution of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans among the five
sub-divisions of the category “Grey infrastructure (urban & building structures)”
Table 5 Repartition of the

Green infrastructure: 149 measures in total
measures of the 15 analyzed
climate adaptation plans in Green spaces 42
the eight sub-categories of Trees 30
“Green infrastructure”
Others 20
Cold air corridors 15
Public spaces 15
Climate-adapted fauna and flora 14
Urban public & private areas 10
Private spaces 3
the category of “Green infrastructure”. 10 cities out of the 15 took the topic “Climate-
adapted fauna and flora” into account, and 9 out of the 15 analyzed plans contained
measures about “trees”, such as preserving the existing tree population, the addition
of further climate change-tolerant trees and shrubs or the planning of green streets.
The topic of “Cold air corridors” was also taken into account by eight cities, even
if most of them only defined one or two measures in this field. Topics such as those
of “Public spaces”, “Private spaces”, and “Urban public & private areas” were more
sparingly addressed (see Fig. 5).
The results show great variation between the plans of the analyzed cities: with
three cities having addressed all or all but one sub-categories of “Green infrastructure”
measures, whereas four cities only addressed two categories and one city exhibited
solely a single measure. It thus shows that some cities are much more aware than
Fig. 5 Distribution of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans among the eight
sub-divisions of the category “Green infrastructure”
188 A. Bourgoin
Table 6 Repartition of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans in the five sub-
categories of “Blue infrastructure”
Blue infrastructure: 90 measures in total
Rainwater 28
Heat relief for people 24
Flood protection 20
Reduction of air temperature 16
Others 2
others of the wide number of possibilities offered to them by measures in the category
of “Green infrastructure”.
Blue infrastructure. Out of the 90 measures planned by the 15 cities in this
category, about a third concerned “Rainwater” and nearly as much the topic of “Heat
relief for people”. Afterward came the topics of “Flood protection” and of “Reduction
of air temperature” (see Table 6).
It is striking to note that one city (Hürth) did not address the category of “Blue
infrastructure” at all in its climate adaptation plan. In contrast, the city of Worms
included measures in all five sub-divisions of the category and two cities (Bernau bei
Berlin and Bühl) addressed four topics. The topic of “Rainwater”, which is the most
mentioned by all measures in total, was addressed by 12 out of the 15 analyzed plans.
The topic of “Heat relief for people” is a bit less represented, as it is included in 9 of
the analyzed plans. There are measures concerning the topic of “Flood protection”
in 7 out of the 15 analyzed plans. The topic of “Reduction of air temperature” is
by contrast only addressed by four cities (Bernau b. Berlin, Bühl, Ludwigsburg, and
Worms), one of which (Bernau b. Berlin) concentrates 75% of all recorded measures
on the topic (see Fig. 6).
The results show here too great variation between the plans of the analyzed cities:
three cities have addressed all or all but one sub-category of “Blue infrastructure”
measures, whereas three cities only addressed one sub-category and one city did
not address the category “Blue infrastructure” at all. It thus shows that some cities
are much more aware than others of the impact measures in the category of “Blue
infrastructure” can have on the comfort of their urban spaces.
Complementary instruments. Out of the 259 measures planned by the 15 cities
in this category, a bit more than a third concerned “Communication and public rela-
tions”. About half as many measures can be clustered under the sub-category “Plan-
ning instruments and concepts”. Afterward came the topics of “Public participation”,
“Resources”, and “Regulatory instruments”. The topics “Economic instruments” and
“Others” were the least addressed (see Table 7).
A detailed analysis shows that all 15 cities abundantly scoop into the possibilities
of “Complementary measures”, as all of them plan measures in at least four of the
seven defined sub-categories. The cities planned between 6 and 40 “complementary
measures”, with an average of 18. Two cities even have measures in all the sub-
categories and three cities have measures in all but one sub-category.
Fig. 6 Distribution of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans among the five
sub-divisions of the category “Blue infrastructure”
Table 7 Repartition of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans in the seven
sub-categories of “Complementary measures”
Complementary measures: 259 measures in total
Communication and public relations 92
Planning instruments and concepts 47
Public participation 32
Resources 27
Regulatory instruments 27
Economic instruments 17
Other 17
Both sub-categories “Communication and public relations” and “Planning instru-

ments and concepts” are represented in all the climate adaptation plans analyzed. It is
reasonable, as the population needs to be informed about and included in the actions
and plans of the local government such as heat action plans, planning information
maps on urban climate, simulations of the climatic effects of urban development
projects. The other sub-categories are quite well addressed by most of the cities (see
Fig. 7).
The results show that all the plans of the analyzed cities comprise a bountiful
amount of “Complementary measures”, most of all “Communication and public rela-
tions” and “Planning instruments and concepts”. Other sub-kinds of “Complementary
measures” are also well taken into account.
190 A. Bourgoin
Fig. 7 Distribution of the measures of the 15 analyzed climate adaptation plans among the seven
sub-divisions of the category “Complementary measures”
5.2 Implementation Status: Good Effort to Implement Some

of the Planned Measures
For each climate adaptation plan, the general implementation status of the plan was
based on the collated records publicly available of the four-level implementation
status of the measures listed in the adaptation plan.
Table 8 provides an overview of the status of the measures listed in each adaptation
plan. A check mark in the columns “2—Test phase”, “3—Ongoing” or “4—Evalu-
able” means that at least one measure in the whole plan could be assigned to the
corresponding category. A red cross means that no measure could be found at the
corresponding stage, based on the information publicly available on 1st September
2022.
Looking at the information summarized in Table 8 it seems clear that most of
the analyzed cities are making efforts to implement the measures foreseen in their
climate adaptation plans. Only for the city of Landau in der Pfalz, which published
its plan in 2020 could no information be found about the implementation status of
the measures listed in its plan.
Otherwise, 13 of the cities provided information showing that they are already
implementing some of their planned measures in some form (either in a test phase
or city-wide) and even six cities could boast of having evaluable results about some
of their measures.
This quick analysis thus shows already a trend that some cities with a few years old
climate adaptation plans have already implemented some measures, but it is unclear
to which extend and there seems to be no official monitoring report measuring the
effects of these measures. For a more precise analysis in the absence of monitoring
reports, interviews would be needed to clarify with each city the real implementation
status of each measure and thus of the whole plan.
Table 8 Overview of the implementation status of the measures in the 15 analyzed cities’ climate
adaptation plans
5.3 Strategies Unequally Developed in the Different

Categories of the Impact Logic of the Municipal Action
For each city, the elements concerning its climate adaptation plan in each of the
four categories of the impact logic of the municipal action (“Impact”, “Outcome”,
“Output”, and “Input”) were recorded and the main results of the qualitative analysis
are presented here.
The first observation derived from the compilation of information is that not every
city provides some kind of information about each category of the impact logic of
the municipal action, and when the information is provided, the degree of details
provided varies greatly. Thus, it shows that cities are not aware of the underlying
mechanisms of the effects of their measures.
“Impact”. The category of “impact” is the one for “mission statements” and
“long-term goals”. The aims of 13 of the 15 analyzed cities can be clustered in this
category, such as:
● Adapting the city to the consequences of climate change (Meerbusch, Lohmar,
Rodgau)
● Long-term reduction of vulnerability (against heat waves or heavy rainfall events)
and increase of resilience (Bernau b. Berlin, Erkrath, Herten, Meerbusch, Rodgau)
● Ensuring quality of life and healthy living conditions for present and future
generations (Lohmar, Ludwigsburg, Bühl, Worms, Landau in der Pfalz, Hanau)
● Anchoring climate protection and climate adaptation requirements in urban land
use planning (Rodgau)
192 A. Bourgoin
● Permanent participatory & ecosystem-based adaptation planning (Bernau b.

Berlin)
● Structural and institutional adaptations of ecosystem management (Bernau b.
Berlin)
● Ecologically-functioning ecosystems (Bernau b. Berlin, Landau in der Pfalz,
Landau in der Pfalz)
● Exemplary function in responsible and climate-conscious action (Hürth, Speyer,
Rodgau)
● 3 pillars of sustainability: social, economy, and ecology (Landau in der Pfalz)
For two cities (Siegburg and Dietzenbach), no real information could be found
at the “impact” level. One of the measures the city of Siegburg defined in its plan
was to “define or further develop the energy and climate policy model and goals”.
The city of Dietzenbach does not give any information about the overall aims of the
city’s climate adaptation plan.
“Outcome”. In the category “Outcome” are collected all the direct effects that the
cities expect from the application of their climate adaptation plan, or the changes the
municipalities aim to achieve concerning local situations. Analysis of the content of
the 15 cities’ climate adaptation plan shows that they do not always clearly distinguish
the concrete “outcomes” expected from the “impacts” hoped for, or from the measures
themselves. The city of Bühl provides the best example of “outcomes”, which show
concrete expectations from their adaptation plan by defining 12 central objectives
for the thematic areas of living and residential environment, health, and landscape
and recreation, among whose are for instance:
● Preservation, development, and creation of areas for thermal relief in the
settlement area.
● Preservation and expansion of areas for thermal relief in outdoor areas
● Safeguarding and development of climate-adapted open spaces in outdoor areas
● Reduction of air-hygienic pollution
● Preservation and development of CO2-storing land uses
● Climate-adapted design of buildings.
The city of Bernau bei Berlin also defines such outcomes, even if they are more
“ecosystem oriented” and less “urban spaces oriented”.
The “core objectives” or “sub-goals” of the cities of Erkrath, Herten, Hürth, Meer-
busch, Ludwigsburg, Rodgau, and Hanau are mostly a slightly more detailed version
of the “impact” aimed for by the whole process.
Some cities (e.g., Speyer, Siegburg, Landau in der Pfalz) prefer to define “fields
of action” they expect their measures to influence, which can be either topic-specific
like “Urban planning and green spaces”, “Economy”, “Tourism”, “Health”, “Mobil-
ity” and “Flood, or related to cross-sectoral domains, like “communication/public
relations/education”.
For two cities (Worms and Dietzenbach), no real information could be found at
the “outcome” level. The city of Worms concentrated on their measures and drew
up a catalog of measures and priorities with 48 measures but did not define their
expected outcomes. The city of Dietzenbach does not give any information about the
outcome expected from the measures in its climate adaptation plan.
“Output”. All services and products that the municipalities intend to offer with
the implementation of their climate adaptation concepts can be found in this category.
In most cases, the “outputs” can be derived directly from the results of the single
measures planned in the climate adaptation plans, for instance:
● The areas of sealed ground newly greened
● The newly shaded facades (through trees, façade greening, or blinds or awnings)
to reduce direct irradiation and promote climate-friendly buildings
● The deciduous trees planted
● The installed temporary and/or mobile solutions such as mobile greenery for heat
prevention in the inner cities
● The existing (near-natural) water bodies and wetlands are preserved
● The new water installations with moving water or spray mist in areas subjected
to very high thermal loads
● The promotion campaign & competition for near-natural garden design among
private households
● The newly created funding programs and financial incentives, to promote roof
and façade greening (private, industry, and commerce).
As each of the 15 cities defined concrete measures (the one analyzed in part 5.1),
each of them defined concomitantly the outputs they are expecting from the measures.
The cities which planned the most measures were mathematically the ones with the
bigger number of “outputs” that can be expected from their climate adaptation plan.
“Input”. The “Input” category, which is the one about the resources (e.g.
personnel, financial, etc.) the municipality plans to invest, is along with the cate-
gory “outcome”, one of the most unequal ones among the cities: some cities provide
indeed very clear descriptions of the resources needed for the realization of the
measures, in terms of financial and personal planning, whereas others give near to no
indication on how the implementation of the measures will be concretely possible.
Financial planning indeed often simply refers to funding programs, mostly used to
develop the climate adaptation plan, but is rarely clear whether these same programs
will help finance the foreseen measures of the plans (Erkrath, Speyer, Hanau). For
the city of Lohmar, no information about any kind of financing was found.
Concerning personal planning, some cities (Bernau b. Berlin, Lohmar) focus
mainly on project groups, representatives from the municipality, and department
managers of the municipality and tend to forget to take into account the people needed
to implement the measures decided. Some cities (e.g., Hürth, Siegburg) list also the
personnel costs per measure or for the controlling of measures and reporting. Lastly,
some cities (Herten, Meerbusch, Ludwigsburg, Bühl, Worms, Rodgau, Dietzenbach)
created detailed “Profile sheets” for their measures, with for instance information
concerning:
● Who is responsible and/or which actors (department) are implicated in the
realization of the measure?
194 A. Bourgoin
● What are the financing and funding possibilities for the implementation of the
measure?
● What will the implementation cost? Including personnel costs, direct implemen-
tation costs, public relations, and follow-up costs, if applicable.
● What is the duration of the measure? Preparation period, implementation period,
and duration of the measure itself.
These are exactly the kind of information one needs, to check the feasibility of the
impact logic of the municipal climate adaptation plans, as without this information it
cannot be checked if the cities have the means available to execute everything written
in their adaptation plan or if the project of the adaptation of the city will go no further
than the elaboration of the plan.
Evaluation of the degree of detail of the elements of the impact logic of the
municipal action. The above analysis shows that cities have little to no trouble
defining “mission statements” and “long-term goals” belonging to the category of
the wider “impact” they hope from their climate adaptation plan.
The category “outcome” is a bit more difficult to elaborate on for the cities, as
they seem to have trouble distinguishing between the concrete “outcomes” expected,
and the broader “impacts” hoped for or between the “outcomes” and the measures
themselves. Two cities among the 15 analyzed, however, still managed to formulate
clear “outcomes”, which should result from the implementation of the measures.
The level of the “outputs” is in turn much easier for the cities to define as it
comprises mostly the results of the single measures planned in the climate adaptation
plans.
Lastly, the “input” category is, after the category “outcome”, the second the most
unequal among the cities. Some cities give created detailed “Profile sheets” for their
measures, which contain very clear descriptions of the resources needed for the
realization of the measures, especially in terms of financial and personal planning,
whereas other cities give near to no indication about how the implementation of the
measures will be concretely possible.
It is therefore clearly apparent that the degree of detail of the 15 cities’ climate
adaptation plans is very varied, with some having no trouble providing a precise
description of the content of some category of the impact logic of the municipal
action, whereas others seem to struggle to express the steps of the impact logic
necessary for them to reach their goals.
6 Recommendations and Limits of the Approach
This paper presented a methodology to evaluate the current adaptation plans of

cities to warmer summers. Based on the results presented in Chap. 5, the following
recommendations can be formulated to help cities adjust their planning practices.
6.1 Recommendations
The analysis of the elements of the impact logic of the municipal action in the
climate adaptation plan of the 15 selected cities shows that cities have difficulties
distinguishing between the concrete “outcomes” expected, and the broader “impacts”
hoped for from the plans. Therefore, cities should, in addition to their already defined
“mission statements” and “long-term goals” (belonging to the category “impact”),
also formulate the concrete “outcomes” or direct (local) effects that they expect from
the application of the measures of their climate adaptation plan, or the changes they
aim to achieve concerning local situations. Impacts can indeed only result from the
aggregation of all outcomes at the city-wide level, and it is unrealistic to expect single
measures to affect the whole city if one does not first take into account the local effect
of these measures.
Further, the analysis of the diversity of instruments used in the climate adaptation
plans of the 15 analyzed cities showed clearly that cities seem to invest more energy in
“complementary instruments” instead of in the more infrastructure-related measures
(be they grey, green, or blue), although these kinds of measures are the most adequate
to make the cities more comfortable for future climatic conditions.
Detailed analysis revealed that the measures of many cities’ adaptation plans
are limited to a few sub-categories of measures. Thus, they are missing out on the
potential of some measures, which they could exploit if their plans were more diverse.
Therefore, cities should be encouraged to use the full range of instruments available
and to take advantage of the wide number of possibilities offered by all categories and
sub-categories of measures. They should use the full potential of the possible fields of
action and develop measures in each category or sub-category. They especially should
develop as many or more measures in the first three categories (“Grey infrastructure”,
“Green infrastructure”, and “Blue infrastructure”) as in the last (“Complementary
measures”).
Moreover, cities should create a “profile sheet” for each measure or group of
measures, with a precise description of the measure and information about for
instance the implementation cost of the measure (including personal cost, direct
implementation costs, public relations, and follow-up costs, if applicable), the
financing of it, the means to be made available to carry out the measure, the time
needed as well as all the necessary conditions and the actors involved (responsible
persons or departments for the planning and for the implementation). Cities should
take care of promoting integrated approaches, where different departments coop-
erate, to foster cooperation, to avoid conflict and to ensure the prompt achievement
of the goals.
Furthermore, cities should establish a monitoring system, to follow the implemen-
tation of each measure and thus of the whole of the plan. Such a system would indeed
enable to assess the efforts already made and clearly show those still necessary.
196 A. Bourgoin
For five or more years old plans and concepts, it might also be worth it to adapt
the plan or concept to the current knowledge on climate change and on the state-
of-the-art measures as well as the possibly changed local conditions, like political
constellations and aims or finances…
In addition, local and national stakeholders should be involved as broadly
(meaning as many stakeholders as possible involved in as many aspects as mean-
ingful) and as deeply (meaning stakeholders involved at a detailed level) as possible.
Regionals and federal governments should also encourage the cities to meet the
needed preparation to adapt themselves to climate change, especially by adapting
their own agendas, by lowering the barriers to implement some measures, and by
financing adaptation planning and implementation. They should also encourage
networking between the cities for them to exchange best practices.
Cities, which are just beginning to draw up and implement their climate adaptation
plans and/or whose financial situation is too unstable to implement all the foreseen
measures, should focus on “no-regret measures”, i.e., measures that make sense,
regardless of the degree of warming. Such measures indeed minimize maladaptation8
and keep options open, while ensuring already some benefits for the city and its
society [21].
6.2 Limits of the Approach and Transferability
This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the current adaptation plans of cities
to warmer summers, based on the analysis of the diversity of instruments envisioned
in the adaptation plan, their implementation status, and the degree of detail of the
developed strategies in the different categories of the “impact logic” of municipal
action.
The focus was placed here on the adaptation to warmer summers, independently
of concomitant challenges such as climate protection or increased drought or heavy
precipitations. A thorough analysis of climate adaptation plans should take all effects
of climate change into account, which was not possible here. Therefore, it is possible
that the categories and sub-categories of measures used to evaluate their diversity
(“Grey infrastructure”, “Green infrastructure”, “Blue infrastructure” and “Comple-
mentary instruments”, with their sub-categories) in this article might not all be suit-
able for every city, and it may be possible that some sub-categories cannot be used
for some specific cities. If other effects of climate change are taken into account,
then other categories and sub-categories of measures would need to be taken into
account.
The analysis of the implementation status of the measures was based on the
information available online to the public, which is often not complete and not always
8 “Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related
outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability
to climate change (…) Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence” [21].
up to date but enables to see which measures are important for the cities to report
about. For a more precise analysis of the real implementation status of the measures,
cities should be contacted and directly asked about the real implementation status of
each measure and thus of the whole plan.
Concerning the impact logic of the municipal action toward climate adaptation,
some limitations need to be taken into account, like the unavoidable time lag between
the different elements, and the diverse paths from input to impact—which can be
fraught with loss—which means, that when analyzing a project at a given time, the
input is often not yet reflected in impact. However, despite the previously listed limi-
tations, impact logic still provides a very valuable overview of the various activities
undertaken as well as clues to answering the questions of whether these are sufficient
and what current and future activities should cities focus on [32].
Moreover, not all outcomes and impacts can be expressed in figures: some qualita-
tive information and subjective perceptions also play important roles, like the feeling
of the population of being prepared for heatwaves, although they cannot be accurately
measured due to the lack of uniform and efficient measurement concepts [32].
6.3 Need for Further Data and Research
Research and cooperation with the municipalities are therefore needed to support
them in identifying and developing best practices, which proved effective in other
cities with similar conditions. “No regret measures”, which will be useful regardless
of the degree of warming, should also be further explored, as they can encourage cities
to actively implement their plans. Research should also focus on the contrary of such
measures and identify which measures are more susceptible to lead to maladaptation
on how to avoid it. Consequently, there is a need for methods to evaluate the potential
cost–benefit analysis of measures and which conditions need to be taken into account.
Concerning the implementation of the measures, municipalities also need some
support on how best to create “profile sheets” for their measures, and which informa-
tion should be included in the “profile sheets” to best facilitate the implementation
and the checking of the feasibility of the impact logic.
Lastly, cooperation between research and municipalities is also necessary, to
develop efficient monitoring reports, which best show the path already covered and
clearly point out the distance still to be covered and the room for improvement in
this crucial challenge for cities in the coming century.
However, it is widely known that data availability is often insufficient, especially
at the small-scale level of (small and medium) cities. Therefore, monitoring reports
should, where possible, concentrate on available information instead of asking cities
with limited resources to set up new data collection for purposes of local monitoring
processes. Yet, some indicators require new individual assessments and some of them
can only be operationalized with considerable financial and human effort. There,
researchers should meet with practitioners like cities and regions, which themselves
198 A. Bourgoin
should cooperate to identify the most efficient ways to acquire the necessary data or
to identify which more easily available data can replace the desired information.
7 Conclusion
Research shows that municipalities are aware of the challenges of climate adaptation
that await them, and they are trying to actively tackle the issue. However, cities
have difficulties distinguishing between the concrete “outcomes” expected, and the
broader “impacts” hoped for from the plans. Therefore, cities should work on also
formulating concrete “outcomes”, i.e. direct (local) effects that they expect from the
application of the measures of their climate adaptation plan, as impacts at the societal
level can only result from the aggregation of all outcomes at the city-wide level.
Moreover, the analyzed climate adaptation plans of the selected medium-sized
cities located in the “warmest climatic regions” of Germany showed that cities have
a large choice of categories of measures to choose from to adapt themselves to a
warmer climate and that they already use a significant part of this broad possibilities.
In all but one case, the analyzed plans indeed contained measures in the four defined
categories “Grey infrastructure”, “Green infrastructure”, “Blue infrastructure”, and
“Complementary measures”. But many measures consist of accompanying measures,
instead of more infrastructure-related measures. Cities should therefore increase their
effort in this direction. They should also develop a detailed “profile sheet” for each
measure and closely monitor their implementation progress and impact.
Research is therefore needed to support the municipalities to identify and develop
best practices, to identify “no regret measures”, to avoid maladaptation, and to know
which information is necessary to create useful “profile sheets”. Cooperation between
research and municipalities is also necessary, to develop efficient monitoring reports,
which best show the path already covered and clearly point out the distance still to
be covered and the room for improvement in this crucial challenge for cities in the
coming decades.
Although cities have been more or less consciously adapting to changing condi-
tions for centuries, the speed of the current climate change requires them to now
make decided conscious adaptation efforts, and where efforts have already begun, to
scale up and speed up their endeavors. Researchers and practitioners need to work
hand in hand to identify possible challenges and solutions early on, but as some
lessons can only be “learned by doing”, it is crucial that knowledge gained “on the
field” is relayed back to theoreticians but also quickly and efficiently spread around
to other practitioners.
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Evaluation of the Climate Adaptation

Plans of Cities Against Heat Waves Using

Abstract Urban populations are severely affected by prolonged periods of heat,

Keywords Urban resilience · Cities · Climate adaptation · Heat · Germany

1.2 Aim and Structure of This Paper

2 Theoretical Framework: Impacts of Climate Change

2.1 Impacts of Climate Change in Germany

The consequences of global warming are already noticeable in Germany, as since

2.2 Climate Change in Germany’s “Warmest Climatic

Germany’s “warmest climatic region” comprises mainly parts of western Germany

2 Days with maximum daytime temperature above 30 degrees Celsius.

nights is to be expected there. The 50th percentile of scenarios projections anticipates

2.3 Impact of Climate Change and especially Heatwaves

2.4 Necessity of Urban Climate Adaptation

Governmental and non-governmental organizations are united in their appreciation

5 Vulnerability is “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected” [21].

3 Basics of Urban Climate Adaptation

3.1 Requirements for the Adaptation of a City to Challenges

As outlined in the previous paragraphs, cities face significant challenges due to

3.2 Measuring Municipal Action Using Impact Logic

3.3 Categories of Tools and Measures to Adapt Cities

To adapt cities to a warmer climate, municipalities, associations of cities as well

● “Resources” include what the city is willing to invest in climate adaptation-related

This paper makes a qualitative analysis of the level of development of currently

4.1 Selection of the Cities Analyzed

4.2 Diversity of Instruments

The diversity of instruments planned by each climate adaptation plan is evaluated

4.3 Implementation Status

The implementation status of the measures in each climate adaptation plan is

Table 3 The four levels of the implementation status of measures

● “3—Ongoing”: for measures whose implementation is ongoing city-wide, but

4.4 Degree of Detail of the Developed Strategies

15 climate adaptation plans and concepts of medium-sized cities located in the

5.1 Diversity of Instruments: Great Variations Between

degree of sealing in new developments, loosened-up development with high propor-

Table 5 Repartition of the

Both sub-categories “Communication and public relations” and “Planning instru-

5.2 Implementation Status: Good Effort to Implement Some

5.3 Strategies Unequally Developed in the Different

● Permanent participatory & ecosystem-based adaptation planning (Bernau b.

6 Recommendations and Limits of the Approach

This paper presented a methodology to evaluate the current adaptation plans of

6.2 Limits of the Approach and Transferability

6.3 Need for Further Data and Research

1. Albrecht J, Schanze J, Klimmer L, Bartel S (2018) Klimaanpassung im Raumordnungs-,

17. Hackenbruch, J. (2018): Anpassungsrelevante Klimaänderungen für städtische Baustrukturen

32. Peters O (2021) Nachhaltigkeit im Kontext städtebaulicher Entwicklung - Kommunen auf

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