Adbi wp886
Adbi wp886
Adbi wp886
No. 886
November 2018
The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series;
the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working
papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. Some working
papers may develop into other forms of publication.
Suggested citation:
Nguyen, T. C., A. T. Chuc, and L. N. Dang. 2018. Green Finance in Viet Nam: Barriers
and Solutions. ADBI Working Paper 886. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.
Available: https://www.adb.org/publications/green-finance-viet-nam-barriers-and-solutions
Email: ngoc.dangle@hvtc.edu.vn
Tel: +81-3-3593-5500
Fax: +81-3-3593-5571
URL: www.adbi.org
E-mail: info@adbi.org
Abstract
Viet Nam’s energy sector has made considerable strides in recent years in achieving
high percentage of nationwide electrification and a relatively diversified energy mix that
is dominated by hydropower, followed by gas and coal. However, sustaining those
achievements including addressing gradually depleted domestic resources, keeping pace
with growing energy demand from the energy-intensive economy and meeting ambitious
climate change targets under the Nationally determined contributions in Paris Agreement
need to call large sums of new investment, particularly in renewables. If those necessary
investments are not satisfied, it will further increase Viet Nam’s dependence on imported
coal to cater its future energy needs with substantial negative environmental, health, climate
change and economic consequences. Based on the existing challenges, the authors make
recommendations including establishing more conducive conditions for private investment
and strengthening the domestic funding environment through a functional financial market.
Contents
1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1
REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 23
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1. INTRODUCTION
Currently, Viet Nam is a fossil fuel-intensive economy that derives nearly two-thirds
of its energy supply from coal, oil, and gas (Government of Viet Nam 2016b). The
domestic market’s increasing demand for energy in recent years has made the country
a coal importer since 2015. Viet Nam, however, is a potentially rich country with
abundant sources of renewable energy (RE), particularly wind power, solar power and
biomass, that remain substantially untapped. In 2015, only 3.7% of the total electricity
supply derived from renewable energy. The overreliance on fossil fuel in the energy
mix is threatening the energy security of the nation. In addition, Viet Nam has been
experiencing severe environmental issues related to climate change and local air
pollution. All of those issues require the gradual replacement of fossil fuels with green
and environmentally friendly energy sources. This chapter aims to analyze the
rationales for the development of the RE industry in Viet Nam followed by the current
position of RE financing in the country. Furthermore, it studies the fundamental
obstacles that challenge RE financing. Despite the advantage of finding financial
sources for renewable energy, namely a proper national energy strategy to provide a
concrete foundation to lure private investment with basic financial incentives such as
FIT and preferential tax, a large number of hindrances still exist, such as the low-
regulated price of electricity, which makes it difficult for RE projects to be profitable
considering the uncertainty of the creditworthiness of Viet Nam Electricity (EVN), a
state-owned enterprise (SOE) dominating the electricity industry. Moreover, the
underdeveloped financial system lacks the capacity to deliver long-term capital and the
banking system has weak competence in implementing green credit appraisal. Based
on the existing challenges, the authors make recommendations including reviewing the
energy price policy by implementing a fiscal policy reform to encourage RE investment
and developing a fully functional domestic financial system combined with sustainable
business performance of EVN to increase foreign investors’ trust.
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The evolution of the primary energy supply over a longer period, from 1990 to 2015
(Figure 3), shows a gradual increase in the total amount of energy over the years. More
notably, an obvious increasing trend of coal in both absolute numbers and percentages
is apparent. The proportion of the coal supply in the energy basket of the country
expanded significantly from an average of 14% in the 1990s to 19% in the 2000s and
30% in the period from 2001 to 2015. This noteworthy figure is a result of the
Vietnamese Government’s policy that determined coal as the primary source of the
energy supply for the country, the Power Development Plan 7 (PDP 7), revised in
2016 (Government of Viet Nam 2016b). In contrast, the contribution of biomass and
waste has tended to decrease. There was a dramatically decreasing proportion in the
renewable energy supply (mainly biomass generated in the countryside) during the
period 1990 to 2015. Biomass was previously the primary source, comprising 70% in
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1990 and over 50% of the total energy supply before 2000; however, oil and coal
rapidly replaced it and it consequently accounted for only around 20% in 2015, partly
due to the increasing income of rural areas (Dang et al. 2009).
An analysis of the primary energy mix (Figure 4), although it currently includes a variety
of energy sources, indicates that the major contribution is from coal, which is also in
line with the energy strategy of the government to meet the domestic energy demand
based on its cheap operation cost for energy generation. In the revised version of the
PDP 7 in March 2016, the government expressed its interest in coal-fired energy by
developing a plan to derive the majority of the energy supply for industrialization from
coal. It forecasted the component of coal to dominate with 49.3%, 55%, and 53.2% in
2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively (Government of Viet Nam 2016b).
In order to satisfy the high demand for domestic energy, the import volume of coal has
risen significantly since 2014 (Figure 5). The value of energy imports is greater than
that of exports as a result of the decline in coal exports and the increase in coal
imports, with net imports of 12% in 2015. The coal imports in 2016 amounted to more
than 10 million tons; the expectation is that this amount will increase in the coming
years (Government of Viet Nam 2016b). With the increasing energy demand and the
recent fluctuations in energy imports and exports, Viet Nam has been a net energy
importer since 2015 (Figure 5). At the same time, the volume of energy exports has
declined, with an export volume of nearly 12 thousand KTOE in 2015 that equals only
40% of the amount in 2009.
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The situation of imported coal and the forecasted energy supply, as the Revised PDP
7 demonstrates, has raised significant concerns with regard to the energy security
of the country. First, it makes the country more import dependent, reduces its energy
self-sufficiency, and makes it vulnerable to external energy price shocks. Several
studies have found that reliance on fewer energy resources will reduce the energy
security, among which Taghizadeh-Hesary, Yoshino, and Rasoulinezhad (2017) shed
light on the energy-consuming sectors in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear disaster,
which resulted in nuclear power shutdown and substitution of the nuclear loss with the
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importing of more coal, oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Their results showed that
the absolute value of elasticities of most oil consumption sectors in Japan decreased
after this disaster because of the increased dependency on oil consumption, which
endangered the energy security of the country. They proposed that, to increase the
energy self-dependence and energy security, Japan needs to diversify its energy
supplies from too much dependency on fossil fuel to a combination of fossil fuel and
RE. Second, as the domestic price for fossil fuels is currently below the world market
price, public sources would have to bridge this price gap for imports, putting pressure
on a government budget that is already in deficit. Third, the fact that over 50% of the
energy supply is coal illustrates the improper energy diversification of the country.
For those reasons, a transition of the economy from industry that has less intensive
energy use or the substitution of fossil fuels with alternative sources of energy – such
as renewables – as highly desirable from the perspective of increased energy security.
Figure 6: Energy Intensity Level of Primary Energy Source from 2000 to 2015
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Figure 7: Per Capita CO2 Emissions vs. Per Capita GDP in Viet Nam (1985–2014)
Figure 7 shows the positive correlation between the CO2 emissions per capita and the
GDP growth per capita of the country in three consecutive decades (from 1985 to
2014). Viet Nam witnessed an impressive economic growth rate with an average per
annum of 6% from 1985 to 2014. However, at the same time, the amount of CO2
emissions per capita experienced an identical pattern, increasing four times during the
period, with absolute emissions rising from 21.168,924 kt in 1990 to 166.910,839 kt in
2014. The strong coupling between economic growth and CO2 emission generation
requires a less CO2-intensive industrialization strategy in the future.
As mentioned before, Viet Nam is continuing to develop coal-fired thermal power
plants, determining coal as the primary source of the electricity supply for the economy.
Koplitz et al. (2017), in their study, investigated the growth of emissions in relation to
changes in the carbon intensity in Viet Nam, finding that the large increases after 1990
are mainly attributable to the increased use of oil but that coal plays a significant role.
Emissions, which are the main source of air pollution and lead to climate change, have
adversely affected the national growth and poverty reduction in many nations, including
Viet Nam.
According to the Global Climate Risk Index’s Vulnerability Index (Germanwatch 2017),
Viet Nam ranked 8th among the 10 countries most affected by extreme weather
events. The country has suffered negative changes, including a higher temperature, a
sea level rise, heavy and abnormal storms, floods, and droughts. The poor in remote
areas are exposed to the greatest risk given their dependence on natural resources for
their livelihood. The Mekong River Delta and Red River Delta have been experiencing
saltwater intrusion, worsening the agricultural productivity. Urban dwellings in big cities,
such as Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh City, have also witnessed heat and humidity extremes
combined with unusual floods and storms.
As the global climate change has a broad extent when measuring the impact of Viet
Nam in responding to this universal phenomenon (Zimmer, Jakob, and Steckel 2015), it
seems to be obvious to take into account the severe local pollution issue. Generating
energy from coal is costlier than it appears due to the underlying expenses for the local
environment, health, and livelihoods. Furthermore, it is necessary to transport and bury
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as landfill the huge amount of waste from coal projects, while its price often does not
include air pollution and other externalities.
As of 2011, Viet Nam has 38 coal-fired power plants in operation; projections indicate
that this number will reach 133 by 2030. Coal-fired power plants are important polluters
in the local environment in which factories are established. They discharge more than 3
million tons of coal slag each year, in addition to releasing a large amount of fly ash
into the atmosphere. If all the plants become operational, the bottom ash slag will
increase to 14 million tons per year by 2020, with nearly 35 million tons of bottom ash
by 2030, along with tens of millions of fly ash, mainly SO2, NOx, and primary PM 2.5
gases. Koplitz et al. (2017) predicted that, by 2030, the total number of deaths due to
coal pollution in Viet Nam would be 19,220, mainly due to heart disease and stroke.
Therefore, an ambitious strategy from the authorities that is cleaner and more
environmentally friendly, not only globally with a broad extent but specifically for the
local environment first, requires a significant change in the country’s strategic energy
deployment. Because it is impossible to abandon and discontinue a large number of
coal-fired projects, the country must consider the employment of technology for cleaner
coal-fired power plants as the most important solution, since currently almost all the
coal energy generators in Viet Nam are out of date (ECA 2016). A variety of models for
greening and modernizing the technology of the coal-fired industry that benefit the
greening energy sector process are available; Isogo thermal power plant in Japan
provides an example.
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100,504 MW in 2012 to 368,000 MW in 2017. One of the factors supporting this growth
in the solar electricity sector is the reduction in the cost of solar modules (Taghizadeh-
Hesary, Yoshino, and Inagaki 2018).
With regard to wind energy, Viet Nam’s potential capacity is considerable compared
with that of Thailand, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), or Cambodia.
With a coastline of more than 3,000 km and a location in the monsoonal climate zone,
Viet Nam has considerable potential for harnessing its wind resources. The provinces
with the most promising wind potential include BinhThuan, NinhThuan, Vung Tau, Ben
Tre, SocTrang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, and the Central Highlands. Estimates indicate
that the total technical potential for wind power development in the country is 24 GW,
according to an atlas (GIZ 2013).
In terms of renewable energy generation from solid waste, with a population of more
than 93 million people, the volume of waste disposed of in Viet Nam is huge. On
average, the country discharges nearly 35,000 tons of urban daily life waste and
34,000 tons of domestic waste. In big cities like Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh City, 7,000 to
8,000 tons of waste accumulate each day (Schneider et al. 2017). However, the
amount of waste has not been used thoroughly as a source of energy for life. Currently,
the country treats nearly 85% of the current waste mainly with landfill technology, which
requires large land funds; 80% of landfills are not hygienic, potentially contaminating
the environment. With 35,000 tons of rubbish buried each day, this is a wasted
resource that Viet Nam has not fully utilized for energy generation.
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remarkable year for renewable energy investment in the country. Moreover, in the
same year, the value of new RE investment in Viet Nam was equal to that of Singapore
and Taipei,China but still lower than that of Thailand and the Philippines (Table 2).
It is noteworthy that, when comparing the entire RE investment value over the years
among Asian countries, such as Thailand or Indonesia, Viet Nam is only a minor
player. Figure 9 shows the accumulated value of RE financing in Viet Nam and
Indonesia during the period 2010–2016. Surprisingly, in 2010, the values of the
two markets were similar: the value was even slightly higher in Viet Nam. However,
Indonesia witnessed a dramatic increase in the subsequent years; meanwhile,
Viet Nam lagged far behind its neighboring nation. At the end of 2016, the accumulated
value of RE investment for Indonesia was $5,643.7 million, which is more than twice
that of Viet Nam.
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As estimated by GIZ (2013), the renewable energy tapped in Viet Nam is currently only
3.4% of the total potential; therefore, the country requires huge capital to unleash it.
There has been an explosion of renewable energy investment all over the world, and
South-East Asia is one of the leading regions and has invested a huge amount of
money in RE projects. In 2015 and 2016, the values of new investment for RE in that
location were $3.8 and $2.6 billion, respectively (IRENA 2018).
The value of the RE industry’s investment in Viet Nam is negligible and not
commensurate with the country’s demand to unlock the substantial potential. For a long
time, this industry did not receive adequate attention from the government, which
seems to have neglected it until it issued the revised PDP 7. Viet Nam is a “latecomer”
in a trending industry and therefore requires stronger commitment from the authorities
to unleash this huge potential in the future. Without the government’s efforts and
commitment to investing in renewable energy, Viet Nam may become an “outsider” of
the global investment wave.
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Solar Decision No. Grid connection FIT for 20 years 9.35 US cents/KWh
11/2017/QD-TTg generation
(4/2017)
Small hydro Adjusted annually Electricity Avoided cost tariff ~ 5 US cents/KWh
power by MOIT generation
Source: Government of Viet Nam (2011, 2014, 2017).
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Furthermore, potential foreign producers have raised concerns about the purchasing
price, while the current cost of electricity generated from renewable power plants is still
quite high due to the large technical investment. If the FIT is not increased to regional
levels, while there is no clear road map for negotiating the PPA, it will be very difficult to
attract private investment.
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cost of the loans that the scheme will provide for SMEs will be 1%–3% lower than that
of the market. The SBV will refinance the banks participating in the program at interest
rates that are 1% lower than usual.
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Figure 10: Average Power Tariff among the ASEAN Countries (2014)
In the revised PDP 7, with the application of FITs for multiple types of RE projects, the
forecasted subsidies for power generation in Viet Nam are still significantly increasing
in volume, as Table 4 illustrates.
In addition to the increase in budget spending, the artificially low price of electricity is
arguably a weak factor in liberalizing and opening the domestic market and one of the
most concerning issues that prevents investment from the private sector. Numerous
investors have expressed concerns relating to the bankability of RE projects, as the low
energy price does not ensure projects’ proper rate of return when the electricity tariff
may not compensate for the production cost.
Besides the electrification of rural and mountainous areas through the low electricity
tariff, the Viet Nam government believes that there is a way to increase the economy’s
competitiveness in attracting investment, especially FDI. However, Garg, Bridle, and
Clarke’s (2015) study reported an important finding that Viet Nam’s ability to attract FDI
is not based on low energy prices as an input for manufacturing. Their survey results
showed that firms do not typically invest in Viet Nam to utilize low energy prices.
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Instead, foreign firms highly concern about the sufficiency of the power supply and
the electricity supply’s sustainability. The survey also questioned the respondents to
determine the annual level of nominal power price appreciation over the medium term
that would lead them to reconsider future investments in Viet Nam. Of the respondents,
54% reported that they would be willing to bear annual power price rises of more than
15%; meanwhile, 67% were willing to pay for sustained price rises of more than 10%.
Those findings should be a referenced source for the government in reconsidering
energy pricing to make it more attractive to private investors.
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The expectation for new and innovative financial vehicles, such as green bonds, is that
they will provide an additional financial channel for renewable energy financing.
However, the not fully developed financial market in Viet Nam seems not to be ready
with those types of instruments yet.
Venture capital is another source of financing for RE deployment. Project finance or the
stock market should target large-scale RE deployment, including wind power or utility
scale solar power. Bank funding often focuses on enterprises or business models
employing RE technology. Venture capital investors are interested in start-ups in RE
transportation, energy storage, and other subsectors in the value chain or supporting
industries (Ghosh and Nanda 2010). Notwithstanding the greater development that it
has experienced in recent years, Viet Nam’s venture capital is still an infant sector with
a lack of participating angel domestic and foreign investors or private equity funds; the
lack of supportive regulations from the government also constitutes a key barrier that
prevents Viet Nam’s venture capital from thriving compared with that of other nations in
the region.
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From 2014 to 2020, EVN demanded investment of $53 million to deal with an increase
in the energy need, address the shortage of existing power plants, and provide finance
for new power generation, transmission, and distribution, including nuclear and
renewable energy projects (World Bank 2016). With its ambitious and unprecedented
plan for capital expenditure, EVN faces huge pressure in finding long-term funding. At
the same time, EVN’s debt structure is unhealthy, since half of it consists of short-term
loans with maturity of less than 5 years (Figure 11); meanwhile, the assets that EVN
has acquired have long lives of up to 25 years. Thus, there is a mismatch between the
assets and the liabilities of the enterprise.
Under the uncertainty of securing its profitability in future, the worry of investors in EVN
is reasonable regarding how it can create profits in the future and fulfill its responsibility
through payment in full and on time once their RE projects take place.
Figure 12: Component of EVN’S Debt by Maturity in 2011, 2012, and 2013
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affirmed that the benefit of restructuring the energy price system will exceed the cost by
a wide margin for Viet Nam, since it will provide an opportunity for increasing the social
welfare system instead of energy subsidy spending.
According to the World Bank (2016), to ensure financial sustainability for EVN as well
as creating an attractive energy price to attract investment, the energy price should
increase by around 10% per year rather than reflecting the inflation rate with an annual
average of below 5%. In the medium term, reforming Viet Nam’s electricity pricing and
cutting subsidies for fossil fuel technologies will enable more investment in RE
technology and allow them to compete equally.
To ensure an adequate FIT to encourage investment from the private sector, the
government should revise the FITs for renewable energy generation projects. In
terms of wind power, Cuong and Dersch (2014) stated that, with the forecasted
wind-generated electricity share in the total national energy generation at 0.7% and
2.4% in 2020 and 2030, respectively, the FIT should increase to $0.104 for onshore
and $0.112 for near shore. If the government adopts this new FIT, it should trigger fully
fledged development of the domestic wind industry. For solar power, the proposal for
the should-be FIT is 15 US cents/kWh.
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For Viet Nam, as indicated in the revised PDP 7, the subsidies for fossil fuel will exceed
$540 million in 2025 and $2.56 billion in 2030. Thus, it is important to ensure an
adequate financial source based on the revenue from taxes/fees derived from fossil
fuel consumption and generation to compensate for the spending. For instance, the
government could consider imposing a carbon tax of $5/ton on fossil fuels such as
coal, oil products, and natural gas based on their consumption levels to create revenue
for the Renewable Energy Development Fund to invest back in RE projects.
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REFERENCES
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http://global-climatescope.org/en/country/vietnam/.
Cuong, N. D. and D. Dersch. 2014. Proposal on an Appropriate Support Mechanism for
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Dang, T., O. Saito, A. Tokai, and T. Morioka. 2009. “Biomass Potential and Material
Flow in Mekong Delta of Viet Nam.” Environmental System Research 37: 45.
Danish Energy Agency. 2017. Viet Nam Energy Outlook Report. Ha Noi.
ECA. 2016. Made in Vietnam Energy Plan. London: Economics Consulting Associate.
Garg, V., R. Bridle, and K. Clarke. 2015. Energy Pricing, Energy Supply and FDI
Competitiveness in Viet Nam: An Assessment of Foreign Investor Sentiment.
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GE. 2018. “A Bright Outlook For Solar Power In Vietnam.” Accessed 20 August 2018.
https://www.ge.com/contact/general.
Germanwatch. 2017. Global Climate Risk Index 2017. Global climate risk index 2017.
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GIZ (German International Cooperation Agency). 2013. Policies and Regulatory
Framework Promoting the Application of Biomass and Biogas for Power
Generation in Vietnam. Ha Noi.
———. 2016. Green Financial Sector Reform in Vietnam. Ha Noi.
FitchRatings (2018) Vietnam Electricity. Singapore Ghosh, S., and R. Nanda. 2010.
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Government of Viet Nam. 2001. Decree No. 45/2001/ND-CP on Electric Power
Operation and Use.
———. 2011. Decision No.: 37/2011/QD-TTg (6/2011).
———. 2011. National Power Development Plan 2011–2030 (suspended and revised
in 2016).
———. 2013. Accelerated Depreciation Tax Relief for Renewable Projects.
———. 2014a. Decision on Support Mechanism for Waste-to-Energy, Biomass Power
Projects (Biomass FIT).
———. 2014a. Decision No.: 25/2014/QD-TTg (3/2014).
———. 2014b. Decision No.: 31/2014/QD-TTg (5/2014).
———. 2014c. Decision No.: 11/2017/QD-TTG (4/2017).
———. 2016a. Viet Nam Renewable Energy Development Strategy 2016–2030 with
Outlook until 2050.
———. 2016b. Revised Power Development Plan 7. Ha Noi.
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