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The Essential Guide to the Dubai

Real Estate Market

This is the first book to fully present, analyse and interpret the Dubai real
estate market. Dubai is fast becoming one of the world’s most attractive
places to invest in real estate and this book examines the market from three
interlinked sectors that drive its performance: occupiers, investors and de-
velopers. It examines the market’s historical growth and lays the foundations
to examine future trends. The book provides a synopsis of Dubai’s market
practices, economic trends and social change that impacts the value of real
estate. Chapters also debate issues such as property investment, house price
performance, local valuation practices, spatial planning, the economics of
the city, market practices and regulation, property-led economic growth
and future trends such as sustainability and digitalization. This book offers
a comprehensive, in-depth
­ ​­ and ­up-to-date
­​­­ ​­ account of the Dubai property
market and presents a full assessment of the investment potential of Dubai
real estate. It is a must read for students, academics and real estate profes-
sionals interested in this fascinating real estate market that has implications
for both Dubai and wider GCC markets as well as the international invest-
ment market and senior professionals who come to work in the region.

Michael Waters is Associate Professor in Real Estate at Heriot-Watt Univer-


sity in Dubai. He has been working in real estate academia for over 20 years
and is a member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. He is a
prominent expert in real estate in Dubai and makes regular contributions to
media publications.
International Real Estate Markets

The Chinese Real Estate Market


Development, Regulation and Investment
Junjian Cao

Real Estate in Italy


Markets, Investment Vehicles and Performance
Guido Abate and Guiditta Losa

Real Estate Markets and Development in South America


Understanding Local Regulations and Investment Methods in a Highly
Urbanised Continent
Claudia Murray, Eliane Monetti and Camilla Ween

Real Estate in South Asia


Edited by Prashant Das, Ramya Aroul and Julia Freybote

Real Estate in Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean


Claudia Murray, Camilla Ween, Yadira Torres and Yazmin Ramirez

The Real Estate Market in Ghana


An Emerging Market in Sub-Saharan Africa
Wilfred K. ­Anim-Odame
​­

Understanding African Real Estate Markets


Edited by Aly Karam, François Viruly, Catherine Kariuki and Victor
Akujuru

The Essential Guide to the Dubai Real Estate Market


Michael Waters
The Essential Guide to the
Dubai Real Estate Market

Michael Waters
Designed cover image: © Getty Images
First published 2023
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2023 Michael Waters
The right of Michael Waters to be identified as author of this work
has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks
or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library ­C ataloguing-­​­­in-​­Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: ­978-­​­­1-­​­­032-­​­­03357-​­0 (­hbk)


ISBN: ­978-­​­­1-­​­­032-­​­­03356-​­3 (­pbk)
ISBN: ­978-­​­­1-­​­­0 03-18690-​­8 (­ebk)

DOI: 10.1201/­9781003186908
Typeset in Times New Roman
by codeMantra
To Dee, Lily & Phoenix
Contents

Preface xii
Acknowledgements xvii

PART A
Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market 1

1 How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 3


Brief historical development: The economic forces that
shaped Dubai 3
Economic growth in Dubai (modern era) 8
Macroeconomic history of Dubai in the 21st century (2000– 2021) 11
Interlinkages between the macroeconomy and real estate 14
Dubai’s urban development path 16
“Why so high in Dubai?” 17
Dubai: The new global city? 18
Dubai 2040 and what the future will look like? 19
Towering ambitions: Dubai’s polycentric growth 20
Conclusions 26

2 Property market activity 30


Real estate – The global context 30
Key characteristics of Dubai’s real estate market 32
Current property market performance in Middle East
and Dubai 34
The impact of iconic towers and property investment activity 40
How can property investors invest into Dubai’s property market? 44
How are property purchases financed in Dubai? 44
How is commercial real estate priced? 46
Buying residential property in Dubai: An example appraisal 49
Conclusion 54
viii Contents
PART B
Analyzing the Dubai property markets 57

3 Residential 59
Introduction: The Dubai residential property cycle 60
How leverage impacted the Dubai residential market pricing? 63
Dubai mortgages: an introduction 70
­Fixed-​­ or ­variable-​­rate loans 70
Conventional mortgage vs Islamic mortgage 71
Lending restrictions for foreign nationals in Dubai 71
Prepayment of mortgages in Dubai 72
Calculating the full cost of borrowing in Dubai 72
Cash (­unleveraged) vs mortgage (­leveraged) purchase analysis 73
Conclusions 75

4 Building a global residential portfolio with Dubai real estate 77


Key drivers of property investment in Dubai 77
Key barriers to property investment in Dubai 79
How does investing in real estate compare to other asset classes? 81
Why Dubai might help diversify your property portfolio? 82
How do investing in equities and real estate in Dubai compare? 85
Managing currency risk when property investing in Dubai 85
Conclusions 87

5 Commercial 89
Commercial property as an investment 89
Property transactions in Dubai’s commercial market 91
Main participants in Dubai’s commercial property market 99
Drivers of commercial property investment returns in Dubai 99
Commercial yields in Dubai 99
Availability of data 101
Availability of suitable quality stock 102
Institutional requirements and key drivers of commercial
property investment 104
What is the future outlook for institutional investment in Dubai? 105
Indirect real estate investing in Dubai 109
What options do investors have to gain exposure to
commercial property markets in Dubai? 110
Key characteristics of listed REITs in Dubai 110
Was it a step in the REIT direction for Dubai? 113
Conclusions 113
Contents ix
PART C
Professional practices 115

6 Sale, purchase and leasing practices in Dubai 117


Estate agency in Dubai: Law and practice 118
Private treaty 119
Tender 120
Auction 120
How to buy a property in Dubai? 121
Freehold vs leasehold interests 123
Leases in Dubai 126
Lease registration in Dubai 128
What constitutes a lease in Dubai? 129
Landlord and tenant obligations 131
Assignment and sub-leasing
­ ​­ 133
Managing rental increases 133
Managing rental disputes 134
Conclusions 134

7 Managing a global commercial real estate portfolio in Dubai 137


How do firms in Dubai decide where to locate and how much
space they need? 139
How do leasing costs for corporate occupiers in Dubai compare
versus international markets? 140
Own vs lease in Dubai? 146
Conclusions 152

8 Property data 154


Historic data availability and performance measurement
indicators 154
Why is transparency of data important? 155
Market maturity and transparency 158
Defining market maturity in Dubai 159
The evolution of market transparency in Dubai’s real
estate market 162
What real estate data are currently available in Dubai? 166
Case example: Using DLD transactions to value a residential
apartment in Dubai 171
How are averages reported in real estate? 173
Conclusions 174
x Contents
9 Property valuation, methods and techniques 177
Valuation regulation in Dubai 177
Valuation standards operating in Dubai 180
Undertaking a basic valuation in Dubai 185
How do we value real estate in Dubai? 185
Dubai as a proponent of the DCF method 190
What key variables do you need to consider when valuing
a commercial property in Dubai? 194
Evaluating risk in property valuations in Dubai 196
Key differences on the valuation approaches between
international markets and Dubai 198
Case example 1: Valuation of residential or office
building (­freehold vs ­non-​­freehold area, ­single-​­owned,
full tower) 198
Case example 2: Valuation of industrial property 200
Case example 3: Valuation of retail property 200
How do Dubai property valuations compare to other
global markets? 200
The future of real estate valuations in Dubai 207
Market impacts 208
Stakeholder engagement 208
Technology adoption 208
Conclusions 209

10 Real estate development processes in Dubai 212


Developer regulations in Dubai 214
Development within a master development 217
Development within a free zone 219
Development in isolation 219
Development regulatory and statutory authorities in Dubai 220
Dubai Municipality 220
Dubai Development Authority 220
Dubai Land Department 220
Other important statutory authorities 221
How to evaluate development in Dubai? 228
Residual land valuations: The basics 228
What techniques are used in development feasibilities? 228
Development appraisal and assumptions 233
International comparisons with Dubai 235
Key issues affecting development feasibility in Dubai 238
Conclusions 240
Contents xi
PART D
Future directions 243
11 Sustainability 245
What are the global challenges? 245
The evolution of sustainability in real estate 247
How are developers impacting sustainable development in Dubai? 250
Sustainability metrics and assessments in Dubai 251
The future: Can we create new sustainable business models for
Dubai? 257
Conclusions 259

12 The future of Dubai as a Smart City 262


Contextualizing smart cities 263
The size of the Smart City market and the impact of
market dynamics 264
The challenges 265
Cross-regional collaboration: Dubai leveraging its position 266
Smart City development pathways and the importance of
­people-centricity
​­ 267
Dubai – The world’s happiest city 268
Happiness drivers 268
Drivers of city residents’ satisfaction and happiness 269
Measuring happiness – Dubai’s government’s interaction
feedback 270
Moving towards a balanced set of smart city drivers and enablers 270
Smart City drivers and enablers 271
Drivers and enablers of smart cities 272
Dubai’s future-focused
­ ​­ strategy 274
­National-,​­ governmental-
­ ​­ and ­city-level
​­ initiatives 275
­Sector-level
​­ initiatives 277
­
Education and cultural-level ​­ initiatives 278
­Community-level ​­ initiatives 279
Opportunities for differentiation 280
Decarbonization 281
Strategy harmonization 281
Global networks and the city-as-a-platform 282
Sector, skills and workplace transformation 283
The emergence of new physical spaces – What will Dubai
look like in 50 years? 285
Conclusions 286

Index 291
Preface

The real estate market in Dubai is relatively young when compared to other
international cities, having opened to foreign real estate investment only
in the last 20 years (in 2002). The market as with many globally is multi-
dimensional and complex. Yet, Dubai is fast becoming one of the world’s
most attractive places to invest in real estate. There are numerous reasons
for this growth and success. In recent years, Dubai has developed a real
estate market with stronger legislation and now has a rich amount of data
from which comprehensive analysis can be done. The first edition of this
book provides the foundations to understanding many of the key parts of
the market and industry practices. It will help students and general readers
piece together the important aspects essential to better understand Dubai’s
real estate.
An academic book about Dubai real estate is long overdue, yet could take
many forms. I have chosen to examine the market from a wide perspective.
I have also chosen to make comparisons with other international markets
so that readers who are perhaps familiar with other real estate jurisdictions
can put Dubai into context. The writing of this book has also taken a frank
approach to some of its analysis to highlight where the market still has room
to mature and develop. I have been fortunate enough to have spent an ex-
tensive part of my career working in Dubai to make these comparisons. I
also do it with an impartiality as a real estate academic. I am also a qualified
Chartered Property Surveyor (MRICS) and have always been keen to relate
theories to real-world practices. This book is therefore a combined result of
both my academic and professional observations. The aims of this book are
discussed in more detail below.
The purpose of this book The Essential Guide to the Dubai Real Estate
Market is to provide background reading for students of real estate, busi-
ness, finance and land economics to whom an insightful understanding
of Dubai as both a city and a new global case study would be of great
interest. The lack of such a book was noted when I arrived in Dubai in
2009 and as I continued to teach real estate courses in Dubai and speak
with students, young practitioners and real estate agents it appeared that
a concise reference and academic insight into Dubai would be beneficial.
Preface xiii
Over the last 20 years, teaching across a wide range of the real estate pro-
gramme syllabus has equipped me with vast information and comparative
analysis on Dubai. It has also been a very exciting time to have been based
in Dubai to observe the city grow and develop and be on par with some of
the world’s top cities. Its global competitiveness and pace of growth has
been remarkable to observe. The city has provided me with a wonderful
array of experiences and this book in one way is trying to reflect those
observations in a general yet concise guide. I hope this book will be read
by a wide audience. It has not been written to complicate or be critical
of how things should or should not be done, but I have tried to explain
things from an informed perspective using real-l ife data and real-world
examples from a wide academic base; via a number of industry and prac-
titioner observations and perhaps even a synopsis of the lively classroom
discussions I have had with my students. Therefore I hope that this book
will also be useful to visiting practitioners, new entrants to Dubai as well
as a wider public who might simply have a curiosity of Dubai and its real
estate market.

The aims and objectives of this book


This is the first book to fully present, analyse and interpret the Dubai real
estate market. It begins by examining the market’s historical growth and lay
foundations to examine future trends. The book provides a synopsis within
one publication that benefits global real estate students and practitioners on
Dubai’s market practices; economic trends and changes that have and will
continue to impact the value of real estate. This book also debates issues
such as property investment; house price performance; local valuation prac-
tices; real estate development; the economics of the city; market practices
and regulations; and future trends such as sustainability and the develop-
ment of Dubai as a smart city. The book offers a comprehensive, in- depth
and up-to- date account of the Dubai property market and presents a full
assessment of the potential Dubai has to becoming a top-tier international
real estate market. External to the student population studying real estate
in Dubai, there would also be interest for new entrants graduates and sen-
ior professionals who come to work in Dubai’s real estate market who are
seeking a comprehensive overview of a range of real estate practices and
regulations ranging from valuation to leasing and letting; purchase and sale
and corporate real estate. The book can also serve as a comprehensive guide
for other global students and professionals working in Dubai who can use
the material as a suitable study guide to local market practices. I also hope
that it is an easy-pick up and read for Dubai residents or potential home
buyers who are keen to understand the market performance; appraisal tech-
niques and buying and selling processes relevant to the more practical and
applied chapters I have written for such purpose (Chapter 2,3,4,8 and 9 in
particular).
xiv Preface
This book represents the first academic publication of its kind and in
some part is a reflective piece based from my perspective having been in
Dubai since 2009. As the book examines topics it tries to present com-
parative analysis and a range of insights from leading stakeholders who
share their experiences of working in Dubai’s property market. This makes
for an interesting read and I feel allows students and practitioners a good
point of reference on a wide range of topics that are important for those
who are seeking a new global case study to evaluate; or to the new gradu-
ates who come from other global markets who have ambitions of working
in Dubai and need a comprehensive guide to how the market is structured
and how it operates. Also to the wide range of other professional agents
who work in real estate sales and leasing who seek an overview of how the
city has developed and discussions based around data; market commen-
tary and key trends that are shaping the new opportunities that exist in real
estate investment – both for individual and institutional investors. Dubai
leads the Middle East region in many of its accolades from transactional
activity; to data transparency and seeking new ways to transact through
blockchain technology and digital currencies; 3D printing of buildings;
and a continuation of its truly ambitious plans to be the world’s most fu-
turistic city. I have tried to do the city justice by writing this book in an
engaging manner that capitalizes on just how exciting Dubai is as a place
to visit, work and live. The purpose of this book is to ensure that students
and practitioners have a ready guide to a range of topical aspects ranging
from property valuation to leasing and letting; real estate development and
asset management, without intending that this book will teach the pre-
existing academic theories, but to showcase the similarities and differences
in market practices. There is a myriad of suitable textbooks that detail the
theoretical underpinnings of these topics, but what this book does offer
is a new global case study in which to frame the development of these in
Dubai.
No single book can be a complete authority on a subject and this book
is no exception to this. Like us all I have my professional competencies and
also I have my limitations. Therefore whilst I reference certain areas of leg-
islation or legal systems I am not a lawyer. My interest lies in setting these
frameworks out and analyzing them in the context of how they relate to a
range of professional areas including property management and valuation.
Again these analyses are more comparative than pioneering theoretical dis-
cussions. I would expect readers of this book to gain a better understanding
to Dubai’s real estate market and its operations.
To end, it must be clearly expressed here that this book is not written as
professional advice or investment advice; they simply represent my thoughts.
Anyone using the contents of this book to make financial decisions is doing
so entirely at their own risk. Neither the author nor any other party con-
nected with this publication can accept responsibility for the results of any
actions taken as a result of reading it.
Preface xv
The structure of the book
The chapters within this book have been carefully planned to provide a
range of topical accounts of Dubai’s real estate growth and development.
­Chapter 1 starts the analysis by examining the historical growth of Dubai,
answering the question “­How did Dubai become a leading global real es-
tate market?”. It is a market composed of numerous polycentric districts
across one city. It provides an overview of the economic and geographic
forces that have helped shape Dubai and its real estate market, covering
the growth and development over the last 50 years. It provides context to
­Chapters ­2 –​­5, by discussing the evolution and maturity over the “­freehold”
period, from 2002, when Dubai first began to allow international investors
to buy and invest in Dubai. A summary of ­market-​­influencing legislation
and data to enhance market efficiency is provided. ­Chapter 2 is an overview
of this property market activity over the last 20 years, setting both a theo-
retical context and a range of market commentary on the growth and devel-
opment of real estate investment in Dubai. C ­ hapters 3 and 4 then take these
discussions and examine the residential sector in more detail, taking a more
general approach to investment theory, then going onto discuss the interna-
tionalization of capital into Dubai both from an individual to institutional
level. ­Chapter 4 takes on the role of providing a suitable analysis for indi-
vidual investors to buy into Dubai’s residential market, offering insights
and commentary to how and why investing in Dubai’s real estate market
can work well for an international investor, examining the benefits of di-
versification to the currency returns over l­ong-​­term investment periods. A
range of practicalities such as the different forms of finance and the impact
of leverage in property cycles is brought out in these discussions. C ­ hapter 5
moves away from the residential sector and provides a similar analysis
for the commercial sector. ­Chapter 6 is an overview of sales and leasing
practices in Dubai that provides the context to occupying and investing in
Dubai. ­Chapter 7 puts leasing practices into a ­real-​­world context and evalu-
ates the decisions made by corporate occupiers in Dubai. Aside from these
commercial and legal interests, property data are fundamentally important
for a wide range of real estate professionals and C ­ hapter 8 provides an un-
derstanding of the forms of property data available in Dubai. From this
comes an explanation of property valuations themselves. ­Chapter 9 exam-
ines the challenges faced in property valuations and highlights the nuances
of valuing real estate in Dubai versus international markets. The process of
property development is important to understand (­­Chapter 10) and new de-
velopment patterns point to how the city will evolve in the future. Develop-
ers in Dubai have been historically faced with a range of development risks
and challenges which are brought out in the discussions. A key challenge
for any major global city looking forward is its ability to engage with the
range of climatic risks that are facing the sector, and ­Chapter 11 highlights
the progress of sustainability in real estate in Dubai. It demonstrates what
xvi Preface
is currently developed and what is being developed to comply with a signif-
icant global rise in ESG and environmentally responsible real estate. The
final chapter (­­Chapter 12) is a f­ uture-​­forward examination of how Dubai is
set to become one of the world’s smartest cities. How will Dubai look in the
next 20 years?
Acknowledgements

Despite this book being published by a single author, there are many people
to thank who have made important contributions to this book.
I would like to thank the Routledge team for their patience with me in
getting this 1st edition into print. All their expertise and guidance made the
book-writing process a lot more straightforward.
I would like to thank the main contributors, Mike Wing (who co-wrote
Chapter 10) and Tim Shelton (who wrote Chapter 12) who contributed a
significant amount of expertise and time into those respective chapters. Fur-
ther industry insights were provided by Taimur Khan in Chapter 2 (Box 2.2);
Andrew Baum, for his shared case study data ( from Real Estate Investment,
A Strategic Approach: fourth edition, Routledge) which has been reworked
into a new context for my own analysis in Chapter 3 (Box 3.1) and Faisal
Durrani in Chapter 5 (Box 5.1). I would also like to thank Simon Townsend
(who provided feedback to Chapter 5); Andrew Love and Erik Volkers (who
supplied, where noted, industry data in Chapters 5 and 10); Zhann Jochinke
for sharing relevant data from Property Monitor; Vidhi Shah (who shared
her insights to the Case Examples 1–3 in Chapter 9); and Angela Abeidat for
sharing and discussing a range of useful information regarding the Expo
2020 site.
The knowledge shared by those above and their contributions of support-
ing thoughts and information have enriched the quality of my written work
in key parts of this book.
Part A

Contextualizing the Dubai


real estate market
1 How did Dubai become a
leading global real estate
market?

This book has not been written to be historical, yet it is important to high-
light the economic roadmap that Dubai has taken to get to where it is today.
For those interested in real estate and the evolution of cities, Dubai is a
somewhat unique case study, yet perhaps its origins of development are no
different to other major global cities. Dubai, like many others, has been
built off commerce. It evidently started out in very similar ways to other
major international cities, it had something to offer the world. Dubai has
developed remarkably quickly and remarkably well by most metrics. While
other commentators go far in back its evolution, the purpose of the first
chapter of the book is to draw on the main economic forces that created Du-
bai. Most suitably, this analysis focuses on a reflection of the last 50 years of
independence, with the UAE celebrating its 50th national day in 2021. The
final chapter looks forward to the next 50 years (Chapter 12). After studying
this chapter, you will be able to:

• Understand the macroeconomic development of Dubai


• Understand the sequential urban development of Dubai
• Provide an outline of the main economic forces that have helped shape
Dubai
• Evaluate Dubai’s development against other global real estate markets

This chapter begins by providing an overview of the historic economic de-


velopment of Dubai.

Brief historical development: The economic


forces that shaped Dubai
Dubai’s origins began from a strategic geographical trade position. A key
economic force for the Emirate and its historical development was its ge-
ographical advantage as a trading point between East and West. Dubai
initially grew as a port city. During its “Trucial State” (1820–1971), its prox-
imity between India and Europe was advantageous, particularly in relation
to the trade of gold. Beyond geography, the governance of Dubai made

DOI: 10.1201/9781003186908-2
4 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
some strategic economic decisions that solidified Dubai’s position as a trade
post. For instance, during the 1890s a series of tax concessions were granted
to foreign traders, which meant Dubai soon became the base of operations
for regional trade. The dredging of Dubai Creek provided access for larger
vessels and the city soon became known for import and re- export of goods.
Dubai’s economic development grew from these foundations. Within the
economic development that has helped shape Dubai, we can refer to a range
of forces including agglomeration; clusters and urban competitiveness.
Trade and commerce are still prevalent in Dubai’s economic growth. This
allowed for the development in the 2000s of a large service and commercial
sector (financial; real estate). Similar economic growth patterns were seen
in the likes of Hong Kong and Singapore, unsurprisingly given the similar
policy of low or no taxes in these jurisdictions; presence as regional financial
hubs as well as geographical trade advantages. Today, Dubai is consistently
ranked high in global cities. JLL’s City Momentum Index placed it as the
world’s third-most dynamic city, taking note of its strategic global location,
calling it “the crossroads of Europe, Central Asia, South Asia and Africa…
with more than two-thirds of the world’s population living within an 8-hour
flight time” (JLL, 2020). Dubai is a truly globally connected city.
Table 1.1 presents an overview of key economic and development mile-
stone events that have helped shape Dubai. From an examination of key
events in Table 1.1, there was an economic advantage to use Dubai as a trad-
ing hub, first for commerce and more recently since the expansion of Emir-
ates Airlines in mid-1990s, tourism and service economies. Modern Dubai
has also developed a significant emphasis placed upon property-led policies
via real estate development and construction.
As discussed in the earlier analysis, the key to the early development of
Dubai was the port-based infrastructure that facilitated it position in global
trade, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s and 1970s. The first
spatial plan (masterplan) of Dubai was presented in 1960 by British archi-
tect, John Harris. In this plan, Dubai Creek was highlighted as Dubai’s first
urban centre, playing a key role as a centre of global trade and economic ac-
tivity. Beyond this centre, a grid of road infrastructure and a zoning system
(residential; commercial and industrial areas) were used to plot the develop-
ment further out into the desert.
Since the initial urban development plan, a number of periodic revisions
have been made to accommodate some of the major dynamic changes that
impacted Dubai’s development pathway. Notable changes in the 1971 plan
included the expansion of new development along coastal areas (primarily
Jumeirah). Major road transport infrastructure (namely the Sheikh Zayed
Road) supported this future growth aspiration. Maktoum Bridge (1963) and
Shindagha Tunnel (1967) were both built over the Creek to link the historic
districts of Deira and Bur Dubai. Port Rashid, completed in 1972, and later
was joined by the opening of Jebel Ali Port in the 1980s, a $2.5bn invest-
ment located towards the south of the city. This led to new development
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 5
­Table 1.1 Key historical timeline of Dubai

1950 Oil discovered in the Trucial States


1960 Dubai International Airport opens. Jumeirah/Al Quoz districts
established
1961 Dubai Creek dredged to support a larger global logistics trade
1963 Maktoum Bridge was built. First bridge over the creek
1966 Commercial quantities of oil discovered off coast of UAE. Dubai’s
first hotel was built. Dubai as a wealthy trading hub, also discovered
oil. The rulers of Dubai ensured the use of oil revenues were used to
support social and economic development
1967 Shindagha Tunnel becomes the second bridge built over the creek
1971 UAE becomes independent, and joins the Arab League
1972 Port Rashid opened. A major player in Dubai’s international
development. Subsequently in 2008 the port closed and has been
outlined for residential and commercial redevelopment
1973 UAE launches its currency (AED – UAE Dirham)
1979 Sheikh Rashid Tower (now known as Dubai World Trade Centre)
opened heralding the start of Dubai’s rise as a top Middle Eastern
trade and financial hub
1981 UAE joins the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
1983 Jebel Ali Port established
1985 Emirates Airlines started operations, marking the beginning of Dubai
as a top global tourism destination
1995 Dubai Investment Park opens/Jumeirah Beach Hotel
1999 Burj Al Arab, the world’s tallest hotel, opens
2000 Dubai International Airport T1; Implementation of online Dubai
Land Department (DLD) systems; Emirates Towers; Dubai Internet
City (free zone)
2002 Foreign ownership laws (“free zones”) permit the foreign ownership of
real estate in Dubai
2003 Dubai formally recognized as a financial hub ( World Bank/IMF)
2006 Freehold decree issued; DIFC established
2007 RERA Escrow laws established. Palm Jumeirah opens/Atlantis hotel
opens (2008); Mall of Emirates opened
2008 Landlord and tenant law enacted in Dubai/Ownership of Jointly
Owned Property introduced. Jumeirah Beach Residences developed;
Dubai Mall opens
2009 Dubai Metro opened and became operational
2010 Burj Khalifa becomes the tallest tower in the world; Emaar Square
open; Al Maktoum International Airport opens
2011 Jumeirah Lake Towers developed
2013 Dubai wins the hosting city of World Expo 2020
2014 RERA Rental index established/Mortgage caps introduced to reduce
investor speculation
2015 Property transfer fees increased from 2% to 4%
2016 Dubai Creek Harbour masterplan launched
2019 Mina Rashid redevelopment announced
2020 Mortgage LTV reduced to 20% (from 25%) for expats; ICD Brookfield
Place (the largest LEED office building built); Dubai South
Enterprise Zone formed
2021 Dubai hosts the Expo 2020; Dubai Ain (Dubai Eye), the world’s largest
observation wheel opens at Bluewaters; Royal Atlantis opens

Source: Knight Frank (2021); Explorer Publishing (2009).


6 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
and expansion towards the borders of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. These de-
velopments alongside Port Rashid formed key parts of Dubai’s second
masterplan (Ramos, 2010). It also led to the shift of new development away
from the Creek and a more south-westerly urban growth. This created a
new district where large industrial and residential communities then began
to develop. The historic centre of Deira and the Creek were modernised
overtime yet formed one of Dubai’s most well-known dense urban centres,
a key focal point for Dubai, even today. The success of this huge investment
in port infrastructure was also met with attractive business concessions for
investors and businesses alike. With the establishment and completed de-
velopment of Dubai’s World Trade Centre in 1979, Dubai was seen to be
open to global business, attracting new forms of international businesses,
and Sheikh Zayed Road became a new corridor for commercial growth
(Alshafieei, 1997). These developments marked a second major influx of for-
eign expat workers to Dubai (largely from Southern Asian and other Arab
states), meeting the needs of the construction sector via these major infra-
structure projects (Pacione, 2005).
Under the continued development vision during the 1990s, a service econ-
omy needed to be established to support the economic growth of Dubai. The
“new-economy”
­­ ​­ sectors of knowledge/technology-based
­­ ​­ businesses, tourism
and real estate were created (Bloch, 2010). The growth of a service sector
economy in Dubai was supported with the governance of “freezones”, in-
cluding the likes of Dubai Internet City, established in 2000, with some of
the world’s best known corporate tenants including Dell, Cisco, Microsoft
and Siemens, Dubai Media City (CNN, Reuters, Dow Jones) and Knowledge
Village, supporting a vision towards innovation and knowledge transfer. At
present, there are a total of 30 free zones in Dubai and their scope has ex-
panded to cover new sectors such as Healthcare, Media, IT and Education.
The financial services industry was boosted further with the opening of the
Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) in 2004. These zones offered
a range of financial incentives to international companies including 100%
exemption from personal income tax for 50 years; 100% exemption from cor-
porate taxes for 50 years; and 100% repatriation of profits (Jones, 2013). The
UAE is the only country in the Middle East where a large number of such
zones are available. As a result many international businesses chose Dubai as
a base from which to access the wider Middle Eastern markets. As these new
business centres developed, Dubai’s population steadily grew, facilitating the
development of residential and m ixed-use amenities built in the vicinity.
The growth and development of “Brand Dubai” spurred tourism growth
alongside the supporting infrastructure of Emirates Airlines. In 1985, there
were 40 hotels in Dubai. By 2019, there were 545 hotels. The development
of new hotels and tourist amenities were developed along the coastline of
Dubai. The scale of real estate development had to be befitting of the scale
of the ambitious plans of Dubai and it saw the development of the Palm
Jumeirah, World Islands and Burj Khalifa during this time period. With
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 7
increasing tourism numbers came the need to promote Dubai as a retail
destination. The city’s first large-scale malls, Al Ghurair City and Deira
City Centre were developed in the m id-1990s. Other h igh-profile malls like
the Mall of the Emirates and Dubai Mall opened up in 2007 and 2008. Since
then the number of malls in Dubai has reached 65.
The urban development of Dubai as a trade and logistics hub is clearly
apparent within its first 25–30 years of economic development. To add,
Dubai’s early economic and urban development was built off:

1 Advanced free zone and freeport policy (no/low tax tariffs)


2 Oil revenue-led capital infrastructure and development projects
3 Strong urban “privatized” governance and growth strategy

The third key ingredient to a successful city is governance. Dubai certainly


benefits from good governance when assessments are made on its global
competitiveness. Box 1.1 expands on this to highlight how governance as
well as economic advantage has helped shape Dubai (see Box 1.1).

Box 1.1 Good governance: How Dubai sold itself to the World?

Key lessons from Dubai on how it has set itself up to become a leading
global city include:
• Dubai is business friendly and investment ready: A long-term re-
lationship to serve global businesses. The attractive tax conces-
sions and foreign ownership rights as well as a reliable supply of
real estate investment opportunities for overseas capital, matched
by an efficient transaction process.
• Dubai as a city is run like a multi-national business: It operates
like the private sector and has a branding and marketing strategy
to match.
• Governance and leadership are exemplary in Dubai, benefitting
from a continuous rule rather than the waves of political party
motivations seen in many other global cities.
• Dubai has welcomed diverse, talented and international popula-
tions, which is a major factor when businesses decide where to lo-
cate. Open cities, like Dubai, are attractive to large multinational
firms seeking access to the wider Middle East economy.
• Dubai as part of the UAE has a dollar-pegged economy and al-
though that provides some macroeconomic policy challenges, a
stable globally attracted currency like USD has offered the global
investment community an attractive range of opportunities to in-
vest and secure attractive yields, at times in the double- digits.
8 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
Economic growth in Dubai (modern era)
Since 1975, Dubai’s economy has expanded by 11 times in real terms
(Elhadawi and Soto, 2012). This growth was markedly observed during the
15 years between 1991 and 2008, with annual growth rates averaging 9% per
annum (with its highest concentration of growth occurring post 2000). Dur-
ing this time the governance of Dubai’s real estate sector was shifting, per-
mitting foreign ownership in its “freehold” areas. Thompson (2016) referred
to it as “state- capitalism”. Dubai’s regional-hub role is indisputable and
has been developed over a long period through infrastructural investment
(Bloch, 2010). Box 1.2 provides a synopsis of the key property development
environment ­pre-2008,
​­ somewhat of a ­state-led
​­ expansion.

Box 1.2 Real estate development: The pre-2008 building boom

In the early 2000s ( particularly 2004–2007), the real estate develop-


ment market was being driven by excess liquidity off a sustained pe-
riod of energy prices. Government-backed developers, like Emaar
and Dubai Holdings, were able to leverage off high oil prices to fund
new mega projects. The sheer scale of new development raised con-
cerns over the longevity of further growth in the market at that time.
Real estate consultants were calling for a phasing of this new supply
to “smooth” out any supply-side shocks (Colliers, 2007), but devel-
opers had plans to capitalize on the excessive returns, which in turn
attracted many new entrants to build more under the assumption that
there would be enough profits for everyone. Key drivers to new real
estate development included:
• There was no rental increase law present at the time so investors
were freely able to raise rents without restriction (in early 2007 a
7% rental cap was temporarily introduced to curtail aggressive
rental increases). Lease terms favoured the landlord dispropor-
tionately, with very few laws protecting the rights of tenants, cre-
ating a large pool of ready investors who lined up to buy what
developers were building (also on the back of excess returns).
• Landlords had the upper hand and high rental returns prompted
new development of both high- end residential and commercial
properties. Between 2006 to 2009,there was more than a three-
fold increase in Dubai office space (to 5.5 million sq.m.), with
Business Bay (1.6 million sq m) and Tecom (1.1 million sq m) the
main source areas of new office development during this period
(Colliers,
­ 2007).
• Retail development was also at centre stage during this period as
Dubai saw it necessary to diversify its economy and move away
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 9

from its dependence on oil-based revenues. Tourism and lei-


sure spear-headed the development of new super-regional malls
like Mall of Emirates (223,000 sq m GLA), Dubai Festival City
(250,000 sq m GLA) and Dubai Mall (344,000 sq m GLA). These
new mega mall concepts would underpin the success of Dubai as
a top retail destination both within GCC and globally.
• Within a ten-year period, Dubai Shopping Mall GLA went from
500,000 sq m to 4,250,000 sq m, an eight-fold increase (Colliers,
2007). Yet, solid population growth and increased tourism was
seen as a key driver to this new retail development.
• In a similar light, hotel development in 2007 was being driven by
optimistic growth forecasts in tourism and the aggressive expan-
sion of Emirates Airlines, was a key enabler to supporting new
hotel and retail development in Dubai.

Over 90% of the UAE’s oil and gas reserves are Abu Dhabi based there-
fore one might define Dubai as a post-oil state, with its oil production peak-
ing in the early 1990s. Despite common misconceptions, Dubai’s economy
has not been heavily reliant upon the oil markets making note of its ambi-
tions to have a more diversified economy (as seen in Vision 2021). Whilst
during the 1980s, oil revenues accounted for approximately 50% of Dubai’s
GDP, in the early 2000s, this fell to 5.5%, to 2% in 2008 (Explorer, 2009) and
currently accounts for less than 1% of GDP. Nonetheless, being part of the
UAE and supportive neighbouring economies that are more heavily bound
to oil markets, Dubai’s economy is still somewhat impacted by oil market
cycles. Figure 1.1 illustrates the impact oil prices has had on Dubai’s real
estate (residential).
­
The correlation implies that the oil price declines in 2008 H2 and 2014 H2
had an adverse impact on Dubai’s real estate. This was also observed with the
economic slowdown and a decrease in market sentiments in late 2019–2020
when the global price of oil fell to below $20 a barrel. Since then, the oil mar-
kets have somewhat recovered and at the time of writing are sitting around
the $120 per barrel mark (June 2022). Although Dubai’s economy is com-
paratively highly diversified, falling oil prices still impact the ability of some
buyers to invest in the local residential market (KPMG, 2016). A longer-term
correlation between oil and real estate prices seems much lower.
In support of a move away from oil dependency, nation building and gov-
ernment investment in key infrastructure has also boosted the local real
estate market and wider economy. During the 1990s and early 2000s, Dubai
focused on becoming an international business centre. This focus was on
offering commercial organizations an attractive tax haven for business op-
erations, development was undertaken by state-supported companies and
demand was attracted by a series of “free zones”. This inherently led to
10 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market

­Figure 1.1 Correlation between oil price and Dubai residential real estate.
Source: Data from Bloomberg and Property Finder.

demand for commercial office space and business premises. The influx of
expatriate workers to support this rapid business growth fuelled demand for
residential property.
The urban population of Dubai has been rapid since 1970 and its urban
fabric also extended rapidly by approximately 400 times (Ogaily, 2015).
According to the Dubai 2020 masterplan, the urban population has grown
based on a high growth forecast between 2010 and 2020, reaching annu-
alized population growth of 6% per annum. Yet the city was not built like
other cities, an economic response to population growth or forecasts rarely
existed in the early development of Dubai. Instead, the impetus of develop-
ment was much more visionary. The goal was to make Dubai the world’s
best city. New development would drive the economy and attract large sums
of foreign investment. In the urban plans, mega projects were statements of
intent rather than built from the typically planned states where supply and
demand dictate. Since 1950, Dubai Municipality has commissioned a total
of six urban plans (1960s, 1985, 1995, 2003, 2011, 2021). Dubai saw remark-
able growth over the past 40 years in terms of its population, growing from
370,000 in 1975 to over 2 million in 2014, growing to 3.2 million in 2018 and
projected to reach 5.8 million by 2040.
In summary, three key geographic and economic forces have led to the
historical success of Dubai. These include:

• First, its geographical position and location have benefitted Dubai, the
mid-point corridor between East and West, and located in very close
proximity to traditional trade hubs such as India and the Far East.
Its landmass is approximately 4,000 km2 and is home to 3.2 million
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 11
inhabitants (2021), relatively small in global terms yet exponentially
when compared to its population of 20,000 in 1950 (represented as a
10.6% per annum population growth).
• Second, oil wealth creation from within the UAE, drove a mega-project
development frenzy since its inception in 1971 (Ponzini, 2011). Fast-
paced urban development from 1966 (oil discovery in Dubai) onwards
gave way to capital-intensive infrastructure spending. Dubai was vi-
sioned as one of the most successful cities in the world. The infrastruc-
ture at this point had to play catch up with the trading policy that had
been put in place. Dubai wanted to learn from the world’s best cities and
create something of a blended city – a city that would draw on replicat-
ing the successes of global cities and correcting the apparent mistakes
of others.
• Third, a significant level of well-positioned trade-based ( port) infra-
structure. Akhavan (2020) claims that “the entrepôt characteristics set
the basis for developing an economy based on international trade, initiated
with expansion of the Creek, followed by port constructions and expanding
re- export activities through free trade zones.” The evolution of such key
infrastructure is mapped out sequentially through the historic examina-
tion of Dubai’s urban plan (see later).

Macroeconomic history of Dubai in the 21st century


(2000–2021)
­­ ​­
Historically, the oil sector may have played a role in Dubai’s economic ex-
pansion, however during the two last decades, Dubai relied on business ac-
tivities. In 2005, revenue from oil and gas accounted for less than 6% of the
emirate’s revenues. More significant contributions to Dubai’s GDP in 2005
were 25% from aviation-related services; 22.6% from real estate investment
and construction; and over 40% from trade and finance services (Dubai
Municipality, 2014). As a result, Dubai became an early proponent of eco-
nomic diversification, especially in construction and real estate. Between
2000 and 2008, the economy of Dubai multiplied four-fold reaching a GDP
of $82.2 billion in 2008 (Sadik and Elbadawi, 2012). As with many other
global economies, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) saw a marked
deceleration in economic growth, with a real GDP decline of 2.7% in 2009
(see Table 1.2). Tourism, finance, media, IT, healthcare, education have all
emerged in the modern- day development of Dubai. Of notable importance
to Dubai’s economy since the early 2000s has been real estate and construc-
tion. Table 1.2 also highlights to what extent real estate has contributed to
the economy of Dubai.
Real estate was undoubtedly a huge contributing factor to the retraction
of economic growth, not only given the underlying global nature of the fi-
nancial crisis hitting hard on the property sector, but its imperative impor-
tance as a GDP contributor in the build up to the GFC. When referring to
12 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
­Table 1.2 Global % GDP change vs Dubai % GDP change

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global 5.2 5.3 2.8 −0.6 5.3 3.9 3.2 3.4


Dubai 17.5 19.3 4.1 −2.7 2.8 3.7 3.6 4.8
% Real estate 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Global 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 −3.2
Dubai 4.5 4.0 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.7 −10.7
% Real estate 6 6 7 7 7 7 8

Source: Dubai Statistics Centre; DLD ‘Annual Report: Real Estate Sector Performance’.

Table 1.2 real estate has consistently contributed 6%– 8% to Dubai’s GDP.
At the onset of the GFC, it was reported that residential prices in Dubai fell
by 30%– 40% (Sadik and Elbadawi, 2012). The diversification away from a
reliance on real estate-led growth became apparent after the GFC, yet real
estate development will still be a mainstay of economic activity for Dubai.
Key priorities post-GFC were service- centre roles based on strong invest-
ment in aviation, shipping and logistics infrastructure (Bloch, 2010). These
sectors have grown in their contribution to the Dubai economy since 2010
by approximately 40% (Dubai Statistics Centre, 2021).
The economic retraction of Dubai was boosted by the 50% growth of gov-
ernment spending as a fiscal response to the crisis. Key responses to the
management of the GFC by the Dubai Government included:

• Fiscal government spending in infrastructure development


• Increasing liquidity in the UAE banking sector (in-line with the US)

Since the GFC in 2008/2009, there has been some economic commentary
underpinning the reasons and political responses that occurred since.
Renaud (2012) explored the financial crisis and real estate bubble dialogue.
His analysis found that Dubai was able to prevent a much more costly finan-
cial and real estate bubble due to the quick federal response from the UAE
government. This similarly appeared to be the case during its response to
the economic shock of the global health crisis and COVID-19.
Dubai saw a steady recovery in economic output and growth over the next
ten years. Between 2010 and 2019, the size of Dubai’s economy had grown
from US$80.8 billion to US$112.1 billion, a growth rate of 38.6%. A key suc-
cess of Dubai’s economic policy has been the establishment of free zones,
such as the DIFC. Box 1.3 summarizes the growth and development of the
DIFC as one successful example.
The economic conditions in 2020/2021 are like other global markets, post-
ing uncertainty and fiscal deficits from the fallout of managing COVID-19
and the large pauses artificially placed on economic activity. Key sectors of
Dubai’s economy, tourism and hospitality, were perhaps hardest hit, as hotel
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 13

Box 1.3 In-focus: Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC)

According to the Global Financial Centres Index, which since 2007


has ranked cities according to a range of financial, economic and
quality-of-life measures, Dubai has steadily closed the gap with the
top tiers of London, New York and Frankfurt. In 2020, Dubai was
ranked just outside the top ten. The next highest Middle Eastern cen-
tres are ranked far behind, testament to the ability of Dubai to attract
foreign talent and businesses (The Economist, 2020)
The DIFC has grown into an impressive cluster of banks, fund
managers and law and accounting firms, with over 2,500 registered
companies – 820 of them financial (The Economist, 2020). According
to the same report, it is home to 17 of the world’s top 20 banks ($180
billion assets under management). Fund managers in DIFC manage
assets worth in excess of $425 billion. The key advantages of the DIFC
include its attractive tax regime, and a more familiar legal system
(based on English common law).

occupancy fell to approximately 35% during COVID-19 travel restrictions


(Colliers, 2021). It would be unreasonable to expand too much on the impact
of COVID as we are currently unable to assess the final impact until more
time has passed. The UAE, and to some extent Dubai, is likely to feel the
spillover impact of lower global oil demand owing to the global economic
downtown coming out of this health crisis, most notably through restric-
tions of international travel and aviation (a key sector highlighted above in
playing a role in Dubai’s economic diversification). Economic commenta-
tors noted the weakening demand during 2020 for real estate, yet a notable
price recovery since then has taken place in 2021–2022.
The final point to Dubai’s economic development success has been its
largely successful global marketing and branding campaign that has seen
a huge emphasis placed on what Dubai can offer its residents. One notable
segment of population growth has been attracting HNWIs and UHWNIs
(see Box 1.4).

Box 1.4 Dubai: A home to the UHNWI

Dubai has and continues to rise in the global rankings, be it in market


transparency or city competitiveness. As the city develops, so does it
seem to attract more and more residents. In 2022, the UAE topped the
global list of “millionaire migrants”, with 4,000 new ultra-high net-
worth individuals (UHNWIs) moving into the country (Ang, 2022).
14 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market

The appeal of Dubai includes its relative affordability; tax-free status


and a currency peg to the USD which means UHNWIs from the re-
gion and further afield have chosen Dubai as a primary or secondary
residence. Furthermore, the recent revisions to immigration policy
(ten-year Golden Residency for top international talent as well as
property investors (>AED2 million) are also promoting further inward
migration. Dubai ranks highly as a lifestyle destination; supported by
a developing cultural and architectural scene; health and recreation;
and a h igh- quality food and beverages service sector.
The mega projects of Dubai, as it was committed before 2008, had
a carrying capacity of around 9.5 million inhabitants, five times that
of Dubai’s resident population at that time. Therefore, the intention
of these “planned” projects was never to satisfy merely natural pop-
ulation growth, but instead to attract the wealth of foreign investors.
Dubai was on an aggressive global marketing campaign and looking
back, the branding campaign has worked.
According to Knight Frank (2018), Dubai ranked as the 25th larg-
est city by the number of UHNWIs (1,060 people), with that number
expected to rise 60% in the next five years (up to 2026). According to
New World Wealth (2021), the total wealth held in the city amounts to
US$530 billion. Dubai is the wealthiest city in the Middle East and Af-
rica (MEA) region and the 29th wealthiest city in the world. The city
is home to approximately 54,000 HNWIs and 12 billionaires. Affluent
parts of Dubai include: Emirates Hills, the Jumeirah Golf Estate and
the Palm Jumeirah.

Interlinkages between the macroeconomy and real estate


Macroeconomic forces are undoubtedly linked to real estate performance
and one of the biggest fallouts we saw in the 2008 GFC was the signifi-
cant drop in real estate asset prices both globally and in Dubai. The above
data indicate that there is a relationship between economic change and
real estate market behaviour. During the last 20 years in Dubai, we have
seen notably property cycles between 2005 and 2008; 2013 and 2015 and an
indicative upward trend emerging in 2021. Global property cycle studies
indicate that although real estate cycles periodically continue, often as a
result of an exogenous shock, they exhibit less volatility (Barras, 1994).
The main premise behind this is the absorption of excess supply from the
previous rent and capital value peaks is lagged. As a result it takes a num-
ber of years beyond a new economic growth period before new develop-
ment is released, resulting often in a lower amount of new development
taking place as a response/feedback mechanism to future GDP growth.
Macroeconomic change does not therefore immediately result in a change
in supply at a given point in time (Tiwari and White, 2010). Furthermore,
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 15
global liquidity has impacted property yields (contraction) and new supply
already permitted and in the development pipeline is essentially open to
market forces at the time it is ready for occupation. This poses particular
problems for more speculative real estate development where no identifi-
able occupiers are present. This might be based on economic activity for
commercial occupiers or population growth/forecasts for residential occu-
pants. The accounts of property cyclical behaviour by Barras (1994) have
general applicability to all global markets including Dubai. The boom
years are previously analysed as periods of large-scale real estate develop-
ment, yet with any property cycle, as highlighted by Barras (1994), Dubai’s
story of “boom” and “bust” has not been markedly different from that of
the United Kingdom in the 1980s.
Dubai’s first major real estate boom from 2002 to 2008 which grew from
several internal and external factors are stated below (Renaud, 2012):

• Global credit boom (2001–2008). A key feature of a real estate boom is


attributed to global liquidity and its causal link to rising asset prices.
Banking institutions were more willing to accept more risk as asset
prices increased.
• Strong oil price performance (2002–2008), peaking at $147/barrel.
• Open r isk-taking legislation and rapid infrastructure development.
Dubai has outperformed the surrounding Middle East region offer-
ing firms and individuals a low tax environment and political stabil-
ity. The growth strategy of Dubai centred on six key areas: trade and
transportation; logistics; professional services; tourism; construc-
tion and financial services, often quoted as the Singapore or Hong
Kong of the Middle East. The growth vision of Dubai has principally
been built on Dubai becoming a leading global city, built off sig-
nificant investment in economic infrastructure over decades ( Bloch,
2010).
• Open foreign real estate ownership laws in 2002. Known as the
“freehold” law, Dubai permitted foreign ownership of real estate in des-
ignated areas across the Emirate. The official announcement in 2002,
Dubai saw a significant boost in real estate demand from both investors
and resident expats who had the first opportunity to shift from a renting
to owner occupancy model.

Despite criticisms of overdevelopment in 2008, demand for housing far


exceeded supply, pushing up both capital values and rental rates (by circa
+50%). This euphoric demand was matched in other real estate assets, such
as hotels and offices, which also saw huge price increases. Despite the com-
pletion of some of Dubai’s best-k nown real estate developments (Atlantis
Hotel on Palm Jumeirah), there was no escaping the global real estate reces-
sion. The crisis brought a sharp collapse in demand for residential property
and house prices fell sharply (by circa 25% by the last quarter of 2008) and
fell by a further 25% in the following quarter.
16 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
There were a number of key responses to the crisis in 2009, most notably
the $10bn bond-buying bailout made by its oil rich neighbouring Emirate,
Abu Dhabi (Khalaf and Kerr, 2010), which subsequently gave some sup-
port to the falling market confidence that was embedded around Dubai’s
“debt crisis” at that time. Shortly after, the real estate market started to
show signs of growing confidence, a measure perhaps that the worse of the
GFC fallout was behind us. From late 2011 to early 2012, a steady increase
in property prices began to mark the start of Dubai’s second residential
property cycle.
Chapters 2, 3 and 5 highlight in more detail both the residential and com-
mercial property cycle. Later studies have argued that global markets are
more synchronous given the tangible links different markets have with simi-
lar economic and financial policy. Of course, a notable observation in Dubai
and the UAE is that the monetary policy and responses are steered out of
the US Federal Bank. For example, as US cut interest rates in response to
COVID-19, the UAE Central Bank followed. Whilst macro-level systems
like this can be very similar, specific local factors and market participants’
behavioural responses can be markedly different. This would lead to non-
synchronous links between timings of cycles; uptake of space and levels of
new development activity. Thus, a range of both local and global factors will
impact the real estate cycle in Dubai.

Dubai’s urban development path


Between 2002 and 2008, Dubai’s population doubled and its urban foot-
print increased four-fold (Brook, 2013). In the mid-2000s there were contra-
dictory views on Dubai’s urban development path. It is easy for the critics
of Dubai to raise up during the financial crisis or other recessions, yet I
believe the vision of Dubai is in fact heading to where it has always wanted
to go. The Dubai 2020 plan outlined the urban parameters of Dubai. Area
1 (offshore) and Area 2 (metropolitan/urban area) are the main focus of
ongoing future development. Areas 3 and 4 are currently reserved as “non-
urban”, suggesting the core focus of mega-projects will sit within the Area
1 and Area 2 boundaries. This is also suggested in the recent 2040 plan,
whereby Area 2 becomes the focal point of the five urban centres of Dubai
(see
­ ­Table 1.4).
Dubai has undoubtedly done things on a mega-scale and the achieve-
ments of urban development comprise a very long list. Dubai developed a
significant amount of commercial and residential space, not based on cur-
rent data but very much on economic forecasts, enabling the presence of
the right amount of space for the future population of Dubai, which is now
expected to reach 5.8 million by 2040. One key economic question regarding
the urban development of Dubai has been “Why so high in Dubai?”, despite
the apparent amount of land supply available. The next section discusses
this phenomenon in more detail.
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 17
“Why so high in Dubai?”
The UAE ranks fourth in the list of global countries and is home to the
highest number of buildings above 150 m and 80% of those towers are in
Dubai. The number of buildings in Dubai over 150 m has grown from
130 in 2011 to 232 in 2021, with 29 more under construction (Generalova
and Generalov, 2018). Burj Al Arab was the Emirates’ first tower to top
150 m built in 1999. Furthermore, only four buildings above 150 m were
built before 2001. Over the last 20 years, Dubai has become synonymous
with the rapid pace of development and an exuberance of tall buildings. A
notable claim of visionary excellence. Dubai like any other city has been
built out from a range of economic forces, choices of firms/producers
and consumers/ households to locate and occupy space (agglomeration
and clustering). As competition for space increased, so did the height of
the buildings. One justification might be to do with “economies of scale”
and the provision of infrastructure. As the city emerged, it was more
economical to have firms and households in close proximity to reduce
the inefficient cost of urban sprawl. But traditional economics and bid-
rent competition cannot be the only reason why Dubai has so many tall
buildings. Figure 1.2 shows the historical development of tall buildings in
Dubai, with a notable building boom between 2007 and 2011 (an increase
of 380%).
The chart below shows that a large wave of development of tall buildings
in Dubai took place between 2007 and 2010 (approximately 40% of Dubai’s

­Figure 1.2 The development of tall buildings in Dubai.


Source: Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, the cumulative number of buildings >
150 m per year.
18 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
­Table 1.3 Top ten tall buildings in Dubai

Building name Location Development status/year


­ Height Land use

Burj Khalifa Downtown Completed/2010


­ 828 m Mixed
Marina 101 Marina Completed/2017
­ 425 m Residential
Princess Marina Completed/2012
­ 413.4 m Residential
Tower
23 Marina Media City Completed/2012
­ 392.4 m Residential
Elite Marina Completed/2012
­ 380.5 m Residential
Residence
Address Downtown Completed/2017
­ 370 m Hotel/
Boulevard Residential
Ciel Tower Dubai Marina Under Construction/2023
­ 365.5 m Hotel
Almas Tower JLT Completed/2008
­ 360 m Office
Gevora Hotel DIFC ­
Completed/2017 356.3 m Hotel
II Primo Downtown Completed/2022
­ 356 Residential
Tower 1

Source: Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.

tall buildings were completed during this time), with some resurgence also
in 2021. One might argue that the 2002 to 2007 property price growth from
foreign ownership laws served as a boom for the construction of tall build-
ings in Dubai. Notably for a city with the world’s best advertising campaign,
Dubai’s tall buildings might also serve as “branding”, boosting the econ-
omy and attracting tourists to visit the city’s awe-inspiring architecture. The
multiplier effect tall buildings play in Dubai could be justifiable rationale
for their existence. Of course, Burj Khalifa is the world’s tallest tower at 828
m high, Dubai also tops the global list when counting the number of build-
ings above 300 m, totalling 27 versus 14 in New York. Table 1.3 highlights
Dubai’s Top ten tallest towers.
Single-use residential towers appear to dominate the list and in fact, over
50% of Dubai’s tallest buildings are residential use. The trend of building
high does not appear to be stopping soon, with a number of new proposed
tall buildings in the height range of 350-500m, most notably the recently
announced launch of Binghatti Burj in late 2022.

Dubai: The new global city?


The mega-trend of decentralization followed by globalization was born
from low- cost transportation and technology, both of which impact the
economics of accessibility. These forces are also increasing the opportuni-
ties for developing cities to boost trade; migration; and attract labour and
capital. The choice of firms and consumers are no longer confined to na-
tional or regional boundaries. The world has become more globally com-
petitive, and cities are now competing to attract business; tourism; skilled
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 19
labour; innovation; global events and institutional investment. Measuring
and comparing city performance helps understand the processes of urban
change. It also fulfils a better appreciation to what political or govern-
ment policy works. A significant amount of quasi-academic literature has
emerged, seeking to measure the success of cities, often benchmarking or
indexing the top global cities. Hence we have seen the firms such as PwC,
Mercer, JLL and Knight Frank publish periodic reports on global compet-
itiveness and city benchmarking. This competition drives cities to become
more business friendly and investment ready and invites them to define their
niches and specialisations more precisely. In 2022, a new type of “global
city” is emerging. Dubai is globally orientated offering competition for tra-
ditional centres. Global cities have typically emerged as hubs for specific
specializations, yet Dubai seemingly is offering multiple specialisms within
one city. Dubai is a lifestyle capital and a significant tourism destination;
financially focussed and has an emerging growth economy in knowledge
and technology. The roadmap of the future of Dubai is set out in Dubai’s
latest plan, Dubai 2040. The final section of this chapter examines the latest
of Dubai’s urban development plans.

Dubai 2040 and what the future will look like?


The recently launched 2040 Master Plan maps out the next 20 years of
growth and development for Dubai. The plan puts sustainability and more
specifically its people at the centre of this vision. A spatial plan elsewhere
might typically map out the next five years, but the long-term “Dubai busi-
ness plan” can be much more useful, for both investors and developers. At
its most basic level it shows us the ‘where’ of future city-building. The plan
has selected to keep new development within its existing urban areas (Area
1 and Area 2), underpinning the need to preserve natural resources and
conservation further out, keeping consistency with the previous historical
plans of Dubai.
What the plan also achieves is an investor roadmap. In the next 20 years,
Dubai’s population is expected to grow to 5.8 million, from 3.3 million cur-
rently, putting a further catalyst to how supportive the Dubai 2040 plan will
be to attracting new sources of real estate investment.
For residents, the 2040 Master Plan means improved living standards.
An abundance of green space and public realm infrastructure will only en-
rich the h igh- quality of living standards Dubai already provides. The recent
health crisis has placed emphasis upon people and businesses to think about
social enrichment and well-being. Addressed in the 2040 plan, Dubai will
see the amount of green and recreational space double; public beaches will
be increased by 400% and the hospitality offerings more than doubled to
keep pace with the lifestyle benefits Dubai has been accustomed too. The
plan is not all about development, it also covers an equally important role
20 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market
­Table 1.4 The five urban centres of Dubai in 2040 plan

Urban centre Key focus

1. Deira/Bur
­ Dubai Historical core centre: preservation of tradition
and heritage
2. Downtown/Business
­ Bay Financial hub: international hub for economic,
financial and business activity
3. Dubai Marina/JBR
­ Tourism/entertainment: leisure and hospitality
4. Expo 2020/District 2020 New core of economic growth (smart technology/
innovation); global exhibitions and events
5. Dubai Silicon Oasis Knowledge and innovation

Source: Dubai Government (2022), access the details of the full plan via https://u.ae/en/about-
­­the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/local-governments-strategies-and-plans/dubai-
​­ ­­ ­​­­ ­​­­ ​­ ­­ ­​­­ ­​­­ ­​­­ ​­ ­­ ­​
­­2040-urban-master-plan.
­​­­ ­​­­ ​­

of preservation. 60% of Dubai’s land mass will be allocated to preservation


and nature; and social mobility and connectivity is centre-stage, particu-
larly focussed on increasing the number of walking and cycling routes.
The clarity of the plan’s five urban centres builds confidence in Dubai
becoming a city of complementing polycentric development rather than
competition. This will undoubtedly boost the economic growth and devel-
opment required to meet the future population aspirations. As noted in the
earlier parts of this chapter, the plan also serves a roadmap of future eco-
nomic diversification, advancing the established business sectors whilst also
paving way for many new sectors. Table 1.4 shows the five urban centres of
Dubai from which new development and redevelopment is expected to be
focused. Key outcomes of the Dubai 2040 urban masterplan include:

• Total resident population planned to be 5.8 million by 2040


• Addition of two new main urban centres
• Increase of green and recreational space by 105%
• Increase accessibility to main public transport stations (55% of popula-
tion within 800 million)
• Increase space provision of health and education facilities (+25%)
• Increase space provision for hospitality and tourism (+134%)
• Preservation of nature and conservation (60% rural area)

Towering ambitions: Dubai’s polycentric growth


Housing types and affordability are spread across the city and are not so
correlated to the bid-rent curve assumptions made in a hub and spoke city.
Dubai like many other global cities has developed away from one central
focus, instead developing along a polycentric model. Notably, these urban
nodes are characterized by the presence of tall buildings, an indication of
where economic forces have driven up land competition and h igher- density
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 21
development. Prior to modern- day development and the establishment of
free zones, Deira was the monocentric focus of Dubai, built off its location
as a trading hub and developed around its waterways. Each urban node
in Dubai is an economic powerhouse, often known for a particular com-
ponent of Dubai’s economic fabric. For instance, Dubai Marina serves a
touristic focus; and Downtown/ DIFC are financial centres. New centres
like Business Bay and JLT are perhaps sprawling off the success and close
proximity to Downtown/DIFC and Dubai Marina, respectively. Dubai
Creek Harbour represents a new urban node with its own economic impe-
tus (see Box 1.5).

Box 1.5 Dubai Creek Harbour – A new part of Dubai’s polycentric


development

• Dubai Creek Harbour is one of Dubai’s newest large-scale urban


masterplans, developed by Emaar, offering a similar schematic
design to Dubai Marina some 30km away. In 2016, Dubai Creek
tower was announced as part of the development, and was planned
to be taller than the Burj Khalifa some 10km away. According to
Emaar, the development is planned to be home to 712,000 sq.m
of serviced apartments; 7.3 million sq.m of residential space and
700,000 sq.m. of open parks and green space. Many of the current
residential buildings in Dubai Creek Harbour are above 50 floors,
showcasing that Dubai continues to have an appetite to build tall
towers.
• Dubai is a clear global example of a polycentric urban develop-
ment form – from Downtown Dubai to the Marina; from Dubai
Creek to Deira, few of the many districts that form the historical
development of the Emirate. Within the largest centres, we see tall
buildings and high density (Safarik et.al., 2018).
• Deira, was Dubai’s original centre, built around its water
networks.
• Dubai International Airport is now the epicentre of Dubai’s ur-
ban economic development.
• Vertical “tall building” development separates the urban clusters
and offers a visual barometer of economic success within the city.
Architectural beacons separate geographical space. Horizontal
patterns are more restricted as mapped in Figure 1.3.
• Dubai is also seeing some transportation innovations, from au-
tonomous driverless vehicles to the Hyperloop project that might
see an urban reconfiguration in the access-space proposition.
22 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market

­Figure 1.3 Image of the Dubai 2040 Masterplan.


Source: Provided with permission from RTA

Box 1.6 Expo 2020/ District 2020: Building the legacy

Expo 2020 in Dubai was the first of its kind in the MENA region.
For many cities, hosting a mega- event is now the single largest under-
taking in urban development. One of the key attractions of hosting
mega- events is the promise of a catalytic effect on urban development
“accelerating infrastructural development by up to 10 years” (Preuss,
2004). In the case of Expo 2020 in Dubai, the event has been a cata-
lyst for new development – major infrastructure means that the city
expands; new business sectors emerge and a supportive range of resi-
dential; commercial and leisure amenities are introduced into the city.
Similarly, expenditure on hosting a mega- event is often justified via
the multiplier effect and a boost to the national economy. Ernst and
Young reported that hosting the event will boost the economy by as
much as AED122.6 billion ($33.4 billion) (The National, 2019).

Why was the Expo 2020 located where it was?


Located close to Dubai World Central airport in Dubai South, the
site of the event is expected to cover a total of 438 ha (Oxford Business
Group, 2020). The new growth district of Expo 2020 is equidistant
between Abu Dhabi International Airport and Dubai International
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 23

Airport (DXB), as well as being within a 15-minute road transpor-


tation from Jebel Ali Port (the world’s ninth largest container port).
District 2020 as a new free zone will offer incentives such as:
• 0% corporate and personal tax
• 100% foreign ownership and repatriation of capital
• Office space options from low-r ise campus style buildings to grade
A high-rise
­ ​­ buildings
The location within a host city matters. According to Sroka (2021),
a high land value location can prevent prospective spillover activity
from private sector developers (who are “priced out”) and mean the
need for a greater government spend and conversely, a lower-value
location can unlock or capture upside without the considerable real
estate costs of an already high demand/ highly priced location Expo
2020 is identified as a new urban centre for Dubai and so in fact host-
ing the event has provided impetus to the development of necessary
infrastructure, such as roads, bridges and the extension of the Dubai
Metro Red Line, Route 2020. This infrastructure spend has then led to
a significant amount of capital being invested on construction projects
related to Expo 2020.

What are the benefits of hosting a mega- event?


The first supportive argument for hosting a global event would be the
potential increase in visitor numbers, a spotlight or halo effect that
brings a new attention and vibrancy to the host city. Similarly to the
economic multiplier effect of government stimulus packages in rela-
tion to a national economy, expenditure on hosting a mega- event is
often justified via the multiplier effect. A principle that states an in-
itial impetus is paid back magnitudes more through a range of sup-
porting expenditure patterns (for instance, more visitors; better hotel
occupancy; more consumption in leisure and retail, leading to more
employment and more jobs and higher propensities to consume further
down the line). Though critics have highlighted that economic studies
have often applied incorrect multipliers and a range of historic studies
have found little economic impact on hosting major events. Real estate
studies in a range of global cities do find a positive spillover effect on
property values. The results of Coates and Matheson’s (2011) analy-
sis indicate that rental values are generally affected by hosting these
mega- events but not in a consistent manner. Though, larger-profile
global events like Olympics and World Cup did show more significant
results.
24 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market

Muller and Gaffney (2018) research found that cities with more
market-led economies were better able to use the event for urban
development, explaining that major host events reconfigured ur-
ban governance arrangements and strategic development plans.
We have seen similar in Dubai with the strategic development im-
portance of District 2020 ( p ost-Expo site) within the Dubai 2040
Urban Plan.
One key term used by Muller and Gaffney (2018) was “entrepreneurial
urbanism” which found most host cities benefited from an entrepre-
neurial rhetoric very prominent in the preparation for the mega- event
( perhaps building upon “Brand Dubai”). District 2020, the legacy
component of Expo 2020 is a well-thought-out proponent of this and
the event organizers have planned carefully about how the buildings
and land uses will evolve post- event. A key part of this has been a
leasing up strategy to like-m inded private organizations who see what
will be left behind after Expo 2020. District 2020 will thrive as an
entrepreneurial hub for years to come. Dubai is likely to be some-
what more bullish about the Expo 2020 city-branding opportunity, as
there are still aspirations for Dubai to become a leading global city,
and Expo provides this framed around a future-looking arena, show-
casing Dubai as a modern, technologically advanced and innovation-
­driven city.
Hosting Expo brings opportunities for future commercial enter-
prises. Vancouver hosted the Expo in 1986 and then later hosted a
range of much more prolific mega- events, this event leveraging could
also be positive for the longer term in Dubai or wider UAE. Certain
similarities can be drawn with the convention infrastructure being a
key part to Dubai’s Expo legacy planning. Akin to London and the
creation of the Olympic Park, Expo 2020/ District 2020 will become
a nucleus for new property development. As it is identified as one
of five new urban centres in the Dubai 2040 masterplan, this pro-
cess has already somewhat begun. District 2020 will house the larg-
est DWTC Exhibition Hall and Conference Centre which relocates
this away from its existing Trade Centre/ DIFC location. For cities,
one of the key attractions of hosting mega- events is the promise of a
catalytic or spillover effect. Other studies have have found that host-
ing international events is an opportunity to reimagine or re-plan a
city (Kassens-Noor, 2012), as might be the case with the Dubai 2040
masterplan. In Vancouver and London, hosting mega- events helped
confirm existing plans for urban development and made available
the government spend to invest in bringing such plans to life. Nota-
bly the success of the London Olympics in 2012 was the fact it was
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 25

part of an existing redevelopment program in East London and fi-


nancial government support was made available to accelerate these
plans (Poynter, 2009). District 2020 is based very much on a similar
grounding ­post-Expo-2020.
­​­­ ​­
Beyond the Expo 2020 (October 2021 to March 2022), 80% of the
built environment will be repurposed in District 2020 (from October
2022). Key metrics within the new urban centre will be:
• 55 LEED- certified commercial buildings (minimum Gold)
• 700 new residential units
• 3,000 new hotel rooms
• 108 serviced land plots
The district will also be exemplar in terms of Smart Mobility, utiliz-
ing 5G technology throughout and is set out to be a fully integrated
human- centric smart city, bringing benefits of a more balanced and
sustainable lifestyle for residents and businesses. District 2020 will be
the region’s first WELL Community Standard development bringing
a range of health and wellbeing standards to form part of the master-
plan. Key metrics within this standard include:
• Green spaces: Parks and green spaces provide benefits for both
mental and physical health
• Wellness: A walkable realm and network of cycle paths for daily
commuting; physical activity, reducing reliance on carbon-
emitting vehicular activity
• Comfort: A range of shading and natural ventilation in design
and new innovative cooling technologies to promote comfort

What is the impact on property prices?


Real estate studies in a range of global cities do find a positive effect
on property values. Though as we saw these property price increases
are not simply linear. The residential market expected a boost based
on a significant number of international visitors coming to Dubai for
the Expo 2020. Off-plan developments near the Expo 2020 site are
attracting both buyers and investors, particularly the units in Dubai
South – where rental yields in properties reached 11% in early 2019
(Oxford Business Group, 2020). Roche (2021) published a discussion
paper on the impact on real estate for the previous World Expo hosts.
They concurred that hosting an Expo event had a largely positive im-
pact on house prices, somewhat more pronounced price growth in the
five years post-Expo
­ ​­ (see
­ Table
­ 1.5).
26 Contextualizing the Dubai real estate market

­Table 1.5 The impact of hosting Expo v House price growth pre-/post- event

Expo host House prices, 5 yr House prices, 5 yr


­pre-Expo
​­ (%) ­post-Expo
​­ (%)

1992 Seville, Spain +23 +15


1998 Lisbon, Portugal +18 +60
2000 Hannover, Germany +12 +40
2015 Italy, Milan −2.5 +40
2020 Dubai, UAE +2.9a n/a
­

Source: Roche (2021).


a Author extracted and added Dubai data from DXBInteract.com.

Table 1.5 shows that the largest price increases in hosting the mega-
event takes place in the five years post- event. So are we on a similar
trajectory in Dubai post-Expo? Real estate transactions and prices
were both heavily impacted by the the COVID-19 pandemic. However,
residential prices recovered strongly during the r un-up to the event in
late 2021, especially the high- end villa market, as real estate buyers
worldwide began “a race for space”. Since then, Dubai in 2022 has
been observing a post-Expo residential property boom with record-
breaking transactional values and sales volumes. A market report by
Property Monitor shows that property values in Dubai now stand at
AED1,065 per square foot, a level last seen during Dubai’s previous
residential up- cycle in 2013. Additionally, it is reported that trans-
action volumes in October 2022 stood at 8,626, a growth trend that
has been steady throughout the year. Furthermore, it is expected that
2022 will see approximately 90,000 residential sales transactions re-
corded, its second highest level since 2002 (Property Monitor, 2022).
Post- expo, Dubai has already witnessed a significant price boost in its
average property prices, rising 7.5% since the start of 2022.

Another new growth area presented in the plan is District 2020/Expo


City, the legacy project of Expo 2020. Box 1.6 reviews the impact of Expo
2020 as a mega- event and beyond.

Conclusions
Dubai is a fascinating global real estate development case study. The tow-
ering ambitions and scale of development drew a spotlight on what Dubai
has become to a global audience. Whilst at face value critics would make
calls that it has appeared to have ignored the economic parameters of de-
mand and supply, through my analysis, I believe it has in fact been working
on something much bigger. Dubai over the last 50 years has been built and
How did Dubai become a leading global real estate market? 27
planned to become the best; a leading top-tier global city, drawing on both
international best practices and aligning to its own strategic vision. Real
estate development has consistently been a significant part of Dubai’s GDP
and boosted the economy away from any over-reliance the UAE may have
had historically on oil revenues. Ambitions to be the best have always been a
top priority for Dubai and good long-term governance has been a key driver
to its success.
After discussion, this chapter has provided a summary of these pro-
cesses and looked at what might be expected in the next 20 years. It is
hoped that it provides a robust overview of how Dubai took advantage
of its geographical trade position in its early development years, and how
it has been agile and advantageous to the new opportunities presented in
our modern global economic era. The background to Dubai presented in
this chapter can be carried forward into the remaining parts of this book
and gives context to a better understanding of the evolution of Dubai’s real
estate market.

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